Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says crypto spot trading may be nearing its next bull market, with Bitcoin (BTC) above $78,000 as the downturn approaches the length of earlier bear cycles.
Key Points:
- Armstrong said previous crypto bear phases lasted about 370 to 380 days, close to the current downturn.
- Jul. spot volume across 14 major exchanges fell 21.7% to $429B, while derivatives volume dropped 11.1%.
- Bitcoin traded near $78,700 after an Aug. 19 Treasury move helped shift market sentiment.
Coinbase Trading Slump
Armstrong told CNBC after President Donald Trump hosted crypto executives and regulators at the White House that spot trading had spent about a year in a bear market. He said earlier bear phases lasted roughly 370 to 380 days.
The call follows months of weaker activity. Spot volume across 14 major exchanges fell 21.7% in Jul. to $429.0 billion from $547.9 billion in Jun., while derivatives volume dropped 11.1% to $3.03 trillion.
Binance handled $196.5 billion in spot volume, or 45.8% of the tracked total, while Coinbase posted a 26.4% monthly decline. Leverage moved the other way. The futures-to-spot ratio climbed to 7.06x from 6.21x, showing traders leaned more heavily on futures.
Market conditions improved after the U.S. Treasury expanded long-dated bond buybacks on Aug. 19, increasing operations to at least $4 billion each and moving from two to four per quarter. The program begins Sept. 9. Trump also said a sizable government purchase of Bitcoin had been discussed.
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Armstrong Bull Case
Armstrong said the timing now matters. He argued the current downturn is reaching the point when previous bear markets ended, adding, “It’s time for the next bull run in crypto.”
He also pointed to a Sept. 15 Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and the historically stronger final three months of the year under Bitcoin halving cycles. “There’s a good chance we’re on the cusp of the next bull market for spot trading in crypto,” Armstrong said.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen remains more cautious, saying there is still a “decent chance” of one final selloff if patterns from previous U.S. midterm years repeat. That leaves Armstrong’s timing thesis dependent on whether improving liquidity and sentiment can withstand another volatility shock.
The backdrop has already changed quickly. The Fear and Greed Index rose from 29 on Aug. 13 to 71, while Bitcoin gained roughly 22% after the Aug. 19 Treasury announcement and traded near $78,700 on Saturday.
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