Solana (SOL) is trading just below $100 after a nearly 33% monthly gain, with analysts split between a major breakout and a sharp correction.
Key Points:
- SOL has gained nearly 33% over the past month but remains just below the $100 psychological level.
- Bullish analysts point to improving momentum, whale purchases and spot ETF demand, with some forecasts reaching $500 or even $1,000.
- Bearish traders see weakening momentum and possible downside toward $80.
Solana $100 Test
SOL had climbed nearly 33% over the previous month, following the broader crypto market rebound that began Aug. 19. The token was still trading just south of $100. That level is now the immediate test.
Whale buying has added support to the bullish case, with analytics platform Lookonchain reporting that investors known as HURDw bought nearly $30 million of SOL over three weeks. X user Ted separately said a whale purchased $9 million of Solana and argued that smart money was shifting toward altcoins.
Recent spot SOL ETF activity has also been mostly positive, a pattern the report linked to stronger demand from institutional investors.
Issuers including Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, VanEck and Franklin Templeton acquire Solana tokens to back their spot products, potentially adding another source of demand.
SOL's Relative Strength Index has also fallen below 30, placing the token in oversold territory and raising the possibility of a rebound. The indicator runs from zero to 100, while readings above 70 are generally treated as a bearish warning.
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Ash Crypto Forecasts
Ash Crypto called Solana "one of the most bullish setups in crypto right now," citing its first green monthly candle in 10 months and improving momentum indicators. He also pointed to a monthly MACD nearing a bullish crossover and an RSI breakout from a two-year downtrend.
Another trader, The Black Bull, described SOL as "a $500 token trading at $100," while Gerla said the token may have finished its manipulation phase. Gerla sees $500 as the next major target, followed by a possible move toward $1,000.
The bearish case remains significant. BATMAN said SOL appears to be weakening and noted a bearish divergence in the Stochastic oscillator, while Crypto with Haris ₿ expects a drop toward $80. Haris said his trades carried more than $180,000 in unrealized losses but he was keeping the positions open while expecting Bitcoin (BTC) to fall to $62,000.
Solana's current setup follows a nearly 33% monthly recovery that began with the wider market rebound on Aug. 19 and brought the token back toward $100. That rebound has made the three-digit level the main dividing line between forecasts for another leg higher and calls for a deeper correction.
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