Apple's first foldable iPhone could add roughly $14 billion to December-quarter revenue, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring estimated ahead of the company's Sept. 9 product launch event.
Key Points:
- Morgan Stanley pegs the foldable iPhone's December-quarter contribution at about $14 billion, with 7 million to 8 million units built in the second half of 2026.
- Rising memory costs are expected to lift Pro models more than $200 year over year, the broadest like-for-like iPhone price increase the company has attempted.
- The Sept. 9 keynote is the first major launch under new chief executive John Ternus.
Morgan Stanley Foldable iPhone Revenue Forecast
Woodring, who leads U.S. technology hardware equity research at the bank, described the device as the biggest change to the iPhone's shape since the iPhone X arrived in 2017.
He expects Apple to build 7 million to 8 million units in the second half of 2026, and as many as 20 million over the course of the first full product cycle. Shipments should begin in October or early November, according to the note.
The bank anticipates strong early demand paired with tight supply, a combination that could stretch delivery times well past the opening weekend and deep into the holiday quarter. Woodring kept an Overweight rating and a $360 price target on the stock, which closed at $324 on Wednesday, about 10% below that mark.
Also Read: iPhone Ultra May Land At $2,550 Average, Helping Apple Redraw Foldable Market
iPhone 18 Pro Pricing And Memory Costs
Rising NAND and DRAM prices are expected to push Pro models more than $200 higher year over year, an increase Woodring framed as the broadest set of like-for-like iPhone price rises in the company's history.
The key hardware upgrade on the iPhone 18 Pro is likely a shift to TSMC's 2-nanometer manufacturing process, aimed at faster on-device artificial intelligence work. Woodring wrote that Apple appears more focused on locking down components than on finding buyers for them. Memory supply could still cap production in the near term.
Woodring also cautioned that Apple shares have tended to rally into launch events before fading on the day itself, a pattern that leaves the trade dependent on what follows. Durable gains, he said, will hinge on later estimate revisions.
Apple's Sept. 9 Event Under John Ternus
The keynote will be the first major product launch under John Ternus, who took over as chief executive from Tim Cook on Sept. 1 after running hardware engineering.
Other analysts have put the foldable's price somewhere between $2,300 and $2,500, far above anything currently sold in the standard iPhone lineup. The device is widely rumored to carry an Ultra or Fold name.
Apple stayed out of the foldable market for years while Samsung built the category around its Galaxy Fold line, leaving Cupertino to watch rivals absorb the early engineering costs.
The stock has gained close to 20% in 2026 through Sept. 2, and the Sept. 9 keynote now opens what analysts expect to be Apple's widest run of new device launches in years.
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