Goldman Sachs says Brent could reach $120 a barrel if Middle East shipping attacks intensify, as Donald Trump hardens U.S. pressure on Iran and crude nears $100.
Key Points:
- Goldman Sachs says Brent could rise to $120 if attacks on Middle East shipping broaden, while normalized exports could send prices toward $80.
- Brent traded near $97.49 on Sept. 8 as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and threats kept Gulf supply risks elevated.
- Iran is preparing a new restricted Gulf zone, while analysts warn that miscalculation could widen the conflict.
Goldman Oil Forecast
On Sept. 7, Daan Struyven, Goldman’s co-head of global commodities research, said that recent events had raised the risk that shipping disruptions could broaden and intensify. The bank sees $120 as an upside scenario if attacks worsen, while a normalization of regional exports could pull Brent toward $80.
Trump has rejected the June ceasefire framework and backed military strikes, sanctions and a naval blockade restricting Iranian trade. “I think an agreement with them isn’t worth the paper it’s written on,” he said on Sept. 1.
Iran is preparing its own response. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran plans a new restricted zone in the Gulf and a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend after Iranian attacks on U.S. warships, adding to fears over oil transit.
Iran and Oman are also discussing a temporary shipping route, although U.S. acceptance remains uncertain.
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Azizi Escalation Risk
Brent traded around $97.49 early Sept. 8, while attacks and threats involving tankers, warships and regional energy sites kept supply concerns elevated. A reported attack on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan added to those concerns, though Reuters said Aramco had not confirmed the damage at the time.
Energy Aspects estimates oil inventories outside China have fallen by more than 400 million barrels since the war began, leaving a smaller buffer if exports are disrupted again. U.S. diesel has also traded at record highs, more than $100 a barrel above crude, according to the report.
Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Tehran is more likely to pursue calibrated escalation than an all-out war.
That could still mean pressure on shipping, U.S. bases or energy infrastructure, while miscalculation creates a larger risk than deliberate escalation.
Goldman first raised the possibility of $120 Brent in July, months before the latest price spike. Brent later eased as ceasefire expectations improved, but it has moved back toward $100 as tanker attacks resumed and traffic through Hormuz slowed.
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