Bernstein expects Bitcoin (BTC) to peak near $300,000 in 2029 and reach roughly $1 million by the end of 2033, citing government debt.
Key Points:
- Bernstein's base case has Bitcoin back near $125,000 by the end of 2026 and setting a record around $150,000 by mid-2027.
- A faster bull case points to a $500,000 peak in 2029, while the $1 million call for 2033 holds in both versions.
- The firm cut its price target on Strategy to $350 from $450 while keeping an Outperform rating.
Gautam Chhugani Sets Bitcoin Cycle Peak At $300,000
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team laid out the forecast in a note to clients on Wednesday, calling Bitcoin the clearest beneficiary of what they describe as a debasement trade.
The base case has the cryptocurrency climbing back to about $125,000 by the end of 2026, then setting a record near $150,000 by mid-2027. From there the model places the next cycle peak at roughly $300,000, two years after that record and four years after the last one.
The framework values Bitcoin as a multiple of the marginal cost of mining a coin, and it assumes the asset keeps repeating the four-year cycle tied to its halving schedule. Bernstein splits each cycle into four phases, from breakout through hype, drawdown and accumulation.
A second scenario moves faster. If institutional capital chases the asset aggressively while currencies weaken, Chhugani sees Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and peaking near $500,000 in 2029.
The $1 million call for 2033 survives in either version, since both paths lean on the same view of government finances.
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Debasement Trade Anchors Bitcoin And Strategy Call
Chhugani argues the 40-year era of falling interest rates has ended, leaving governments to carry rising debt-servicing costs at a time when U.S. sovereign debt has reached $40 trillion. Higher yields widen deficits, and he expects policymakers to favor debasement over fiscal austerity.
Bernstein also trimmed its price target on Strategy to $350 from $450 while keeping an Outperform rating. It blamed accelerated equity dilution and the reworked cycle outlook, though the target still sits far above Tuesday's close of $126.83. The company holds 840,447 BTC, close to 4% of the 21 million coins that will ever exist, a stake tied directly to the cycle call.
Bitcoin Price Swings Since The October Record
Bitcoin lost about half its value after peaking near $126,000 in October 2025, a slide the firm called milder than the 75% to 90% declines that ended earlier cycles.
Bernstein credited spot exchange-traded funds, easier retail access and corporate treasury buying, and it noted that roughly 59% of the supply has not moved in a year.
The rebound has been abrupt. Prices climbed about 28% in 10 days after the Treasury doubled buybacks of long-dated bonds to $4 billion per operation on Aug. 19, and short sellers betting on further declines were squeezed out. Bitcoin touched about $81,000 on Tuesday, its highest level since May, then eased toward $78,000 on Wednesday.
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