Bitcoin (BTC) held above $64,000 on Wednesday as traders waited on a Federal Reserve rate decision that could bring the first increase in three years.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin added 0.75% to $64,328 before the Federal Reserve's announcement on Wednesday.
- Futures markets put the odds of a 25 basis point hike at 35.8%, up from 25.7% a week earlier.
- Citadel expects a surprise increase, while Kraken's economist sees no change at all.
Bitcoin Price Steadies Above $64,000
Bitcoin traded at $64,328 early Wednesday, a gain of 0.75% that clawed back part of the losses booked a day earlier.
The move capped a volatile stretch in which the coin touched $66,700 last week, then dropped to $62,400 as a rout in South Korean stocks rippled through risk assets. A benchmark index of 20 large tokens rose 0.41%, with its members split evenly between gainers and decliners.
Ether (ETH) slipped 0.13%, while XRP (XRP) led the larger tokens with a 1.72% gain to $1.086 and Cardano (ADA) added 1.48%, both recovering from their July lows. Monero (XMR) rose 1.82% to $347, extending a quiet run of outperformance from privacy coins that has drawn little attention during the wider turbulence.
Gold held above $4,000, silver gained 1.40% and U.S. stock index futures edged higher, a spread of moves that points to hedging rather than conviction.
Also Read: Crypto Wrench Attacks Reach 52 Cases In Six Months, Most Of Them In France
Citadel And Kraken Split On Fed Path
Citadel, a hedge fund with $67 billion under management, expects a surprise 25 basis point increase from Chair Kevin Warsh when the decision arrives later Wednesday.
Such a move would lift the benchmark borrowing cost to a range of 3.75% to 4% and push Treasury yields higher, a headwind for risk assets. Frank Flight, head of macro strategy at Citadel Securities, wrote that a hike now would end the forward guidance era and force markets to price what the data imply rather than what they expect.
Kraken economist Thomas Perfumo takes the other side, saying the most likely outcome of the July meeting is no change in rates at all. Inflation running at 4.1% supports the hawkish case, though a pause in Iran-U.S. hostilities has cooled oil prices and shaved the odds of an increase.
Bitcoin Options Signal Cautious Positioning
The decision lands at 2 p.m. Eastern with no fresh projections, leaving the statement wording and a press conference half an hour later to carry the signal.
Open interest across crypto derivatives held near $113 billion over 24 hours while volume rose 10% to $205 billion, pointing to steady positioning and slightly higher churn.
Puts at $62,000, $60,000 and $54,000 dominated Bitcoin options volume, a sign that some desks are paying for downside protection.
Bitcoin has drifted lower for most of July, handing back the advance that carried it toward $66,700 before this week's slide under $63,000. Hike odds climbed steadily through the month, reaching 38% by Jul. 24 from 10.7% nine days earlier, and that repricing has kept leverage thin across the market.
Read Next: XRP Near-Term Forecasts Top Out At $1.25 Before The Fed Decision
