Patrick Shyu says Bitcoin (BTC) faces long-term threats from declining miner rewards and quantum computing after he sold his entire position following heavy losses.
Key Points:
- Shyu argues falling block subsidies could weaken Bitcoin security if transaction fees remain insufficient.
- He says quantum computers could eventually expose private keys tied to vulnerable public addresses.
- Bitcoin developers are considering migration plans, including BIP-361, to address future cryptographic risks.
Bitcoin Miner Risk
Shyu, a former Meta and Google engineer known online as TechLead, said Bitcoin’s first major threat is the gradual decline of the network’s security budget.
Bitcoin miners currently receive a 3.125 BTC block subsidy, but that payment is scheduled to fall again during the next halving, expected in 2028. Shyu argued that transaction fees have not developed enough to replace shrinking issuance.
He said about 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined, while many coins remain inactive or move through wrapped products without generating regular on-chain fees.
“As fees fade, miners switch off, security drops, the network weakens again, more miners sell off, and a slow death spiral could trigger,” Shyu said.
Mining pressure has already increased. Bitcoin hashprice, which measures daily miner revenue per unit of computing power, has hovered near $30 per petahash per second after an 18% decline in late June.
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Bitcoin Quantum Threat
Shyu identified quantum computing as the second unresolved risk because a sufficiently powerful machine could use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from exposed public keys.
He criticized the absence of a coordinated migration plan, although developers and researchers have begun advancing several proposals. BIP-361 outlines a phased transition that would restrict vulnerable address types and could eventually freeze coins that do not move to quantum-resistant addresses.
Other researchers dispute claims that quantum computing poses an immediate danger to Bitcoin mining.
Recent academic work found that signature systems face the clearer risk, while proof-of-work remains more resistant to practical quantum attacks.
Shyu said his decision to sell was also personal. He acknowledged using excessive leverage before automatic liquidations followed Bitcoin’s roughly 50% decline from its October 2025 peak near $126,000.
His warning revives a debate built into Bitcoin’s design since its 2009 launch: miners will increasingly depend on fees as block subsidies decline, while the network must coordinate technical upgrades before any cryptographic threat becomes operational.
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