Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to close above $70,000 in over a month, and the short-term holder cohort has been realizing losses continuously since October 2025 - a pattern consistent with bear market conditions, according to Glassnode's weekly on-chain report.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows have returned to positive territory and spot order flow is improving.
Perpetual futures funding has gone negative, indicating crowded short positioning rather than renewed conviction from bulls.
What the On-Chain Data Shows
Bitcoin has spent more than a month consolidating within a $62,800–$72,600 range, with each rejection above $70,000 accompanied by net realized profit spikes exceeding $5 million per hour. Glassnode characterizes this as opportunistic profit-taking, not demand-driven buying.
Price sits between the Realized Price at $54,400 - the average cost basis of all circulating supply - and the True Market Mean at $78,400, which tracks the cost basis of actively transacted coins.
The 7-day EMA of the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio has remained below 1.0 since October 2025 and currently reads 0.985, meaning recent buyers are, on aggregate, spending at a loss.
An accumulation cluster is forming near the range midpoint, but its intensity is weaker than prior phases that preceded meaningful price expansions.
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ETF Flows and Derivatives
The 7-day moving average of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net flows has turned positive after weeks of sustained outflows. Spot cumulative volume delta has also begun reversing higher across major exchanges, with Glassnode noting broad-based improvement rather than isolated activity.
Perpetual futures funding rates have turned negative, meaning short sellers are now paying a premium to maintain positions.
That crowded positioning creates an asymmetric condition: if spot demand continues to recover, forced short liquidations could amplify any upside move.
Options Positioning
Front-end implied volatility has compressed toward the mid-50% area, with the 1-week tenor declining faster than the 1-month, indicating reduced urgency around near-term hedging.
Put options continue to trade at a premium to comparable calls, but the skew has narrowed from its recent peak.
Call buying accounted for 40.3% of total options activity in the past 24 hours, up from 27.8% over the prior week.
Approximately $2 billion of negative gamma is concentrated near the $75,000 strike, where dealer hedging flows could reinforce any upward price move.
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