Bitcoin (BTC) cannot reach $1 million by 2030 because the required capital inflows would be unprecedented, 10x Research head Markus Thielen said.
Key Points:
- Thielen estimates Bitcoin would need another $15 trillion in capital to reach $1 million per coin.
- He said that amount equals roughly 25% of the U.S. stock market’s total value.
- Thielen also questioned whether Bitcoin can quickly revisit its $126,000 record high.
Bitcoin Capital Math
Thielen called the $1 million target “mathematically impossible,” arguing Bitcoin’s capital inflows over the past 15 years fall far short of what the asset would need by 2030. At publication, Bitcoin had a market capitalization of about $1.28 trillion and traded near $63,868, according to CoinMarketCap data cited by Cointelegraph.
He estimated that roughly $15 trillion in additional capital would have to enter Bitcoin over the next four years to reach $1 million per coin. That would be equivalent to about 25% of the total U.S. stock market value moving into Bitcoin, a scale he called unrealistic.
“It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher,” Thielen said. He argued that larger market capitalization makes each successive price increase more demanding because more money is needed to produce the same percentage move.
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Markus Thielen Outlook
Thielen also said higher Bitcoin prices can weaken retail demand because some buyers prefer owning a full unit rather than a fraction. “People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin,” he said.
The view contrasts with $1 million forecasts from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. Thielen said large round-number targets attract attention but can leave retail investors with unrealistic expectations about potential returns.
He also warned against assuming Bitcoin will repeat earlier cycle recoveries on the same schedule. A return to $100,000 next year would already be “a big, big achievement,” he said, while a $1 million price might require “a major credit event, implosion of everything.”
Bitcoin was down 2.35% over the previous 30 days at publication and remained far below its $126,000 all-time high. Thielen said the larger market size means a return to that peak may take longer than many investors expect.
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