Nearly half of all Bitcoin (BTC) in circulation — roughly 9.31 million coins, or 46% of total supply — is now being held at an unrealized loss, the highest level since the 2022 bear market, according to on-chain data.
What Happened: Underwater Supply Surges
Community analyst Maartunn pointed to the Bitcoin Supply In Loss metric in a post on X, showing the indicator had expanded sharply since the asset peaked at $126,210 on Oct. 6, 2025. The loss supply is clustered in two ranges — between $80,000 and $95,000, and between $105,000 and $120,000 — according to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution.
"A large share of holders are waiting to sell at breakeven or a small profit," Maartunn noted.
BTC was trading around $68,600 at the time of writing, roughly 45% below its all-time high, after exchange netflows turned sharply negative in early February — with net inflows of approximately $450 million on Feb. 3 coinciding with a drop toward $65,000 by Feb. 6, followed by outflows above $250 million on Feb. 6-7 as prices stabilized.
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Why It Matters: Overhead Resistance Builds
That concentrated overhead supply represents a wall of potential selling pressure at higher price levels, as holders who bought in those ranges would look to exit near their cost basis. "That overhead supply must be absorbed and redistributed to stronger hands before a durable bottom can emerge," Maartunn explained.
Previous bear markets offer limited guidance on timing.
The 2021-2022 cycle saw a 77% peak-to-trough decline over roughly 12 months, while the 2017-2018 drawdown reached 84% over 13 months. Some social media speculation has pointed to bottoms as low as $32,000 to $49,000, though those estimates rely on pattern-matching with earlier cycles — a method with no predictive reliability given that institutional participation, ETF flows and macroeconomic conditions have shifted fundamentally since 2022.
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