Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan projected that Circle Internet Financial could reach a $75 billion valuation by 2030, even as the stablecoin issuer's stock plunged 22% on Tuesday following a leaked draft of the CLARITY Act that would ban passive yield on stablecoin holdings.
Circle Stock Crash
Circle's shares fell to $98 after reports surfaced that a revised Senate Banking Committee draft would prohibit platforms from offering yield on stablecoins.
The ban would cover both direct interest payments and rewards structured to resemble bank deposits. It would apply to exchanges, brokers and affiliated services.
In his weekly memo, Hougan called the selloff "overblown."
He argued that the latest CLARITY Act draft does not change his base case forecast for Circle. Interest income, he wrote, has not been a primary driver of stablecoin growth — most USDC (USDC) holders today don't receive yield at all.
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Hougan's $75B Projection
Hougan cited a Citigroup report projecting the stablecoin market will reach $1.9 trillion by 2030 in a base case, or $4 trillion in a bull scenario. USDC currently holds 25% of the overall stablecoin market but commands more than 80% of the regulated segment — a share Hougan expects to grow as banks and major enterprises adopt onshore, regulated tokens.
On the revenue side, Circle earns roughly 4% interest on $80 billion backing USDC.
It shares about 60% of that with distribution partners like Coinbase, netting a 1.6% take rate. Hougan projected that rate will fall to 0.8% by 2030 as competition intensifies.
Using what he called "conservative assumptions" on market size, Circle's share and margin compression, Hougan concluded the company could hit "$75 billion by 2030 — even with the recent CLARITY Act concerns."
He also noted that stablecoins thrive on convenience rather than yield, pointing out that average savings and checking accounts pay just 0.60% and 0.07%, respectively.
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