Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded toward $70,000 this week but stalled in consolidation around the high $60,000s amid defensive market conditions across spot, derivatives and on-chain indicators.
Glassnode's Weekly Market Pulse published Monday showed the recovery remains "stabilization-led rather than conviction-driven" with participation thinning meaningfully despite improved momentum from oversold levels.
The cryptocurrency traded around $68,700 as of Monday morning after briefly touching $70,400 over the weekend. Bitcoin has declined approximately 45% from its October 2025 peak above $126,000.
What Happened
Market momentum improved from deeply oversold conditions, with the 14-day RSI rising from 29.4 to 38.5 over the past week. However, the metric remains well below the 61.0 threshold that would signal conviction-driven buying, according to Glassnode data.
Spot trading volume fell 48.3% from $15.8 billion to $8.2 billion, pressing into statistical low bands. Aggressive sell-side pressure cooled, with spot cumulative volume delta improving from -$352.9 million to -$193.9 million, though it remains negative.
Derivatives markets continued unwinding leverage. Futures open interest declined 7.3% from $25.4 billion to $23.6 billion, falling below typical ranges. Funding rates dropped 22.1% as traders stepped back from paying for long exposure.
Options markets showed implied volatility slipping below realized volatility for the first time in weeks. The volatility spread flipped from positive 4.66% to negative 19.76%, suggesting near-term risk may be underpriced even as downside hedging demand only marginally relaxed.
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Why It Matters
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows moderated but remained negative. Weekly net flows improved 57.2% from -$802.9 million to -$343.7 million, reducing a key source of selling pressure. ETF trading volume plunged 55.5% from $42.5 billion to $18.9 billion, indicating cautious positioning among institutional holders.
ETF holder profitability compressed, with the market value to realized value ratio declining from 1.19 to 1.14. This places holders closer to their cost basis and increases sensitivity to further drawdowns.
On-chain metrics remained weak. Daily active addresses fell 12.7% to 630,966, dropping below statistical bands. Entity-adjusted transfer volume declined 31.9% to $6.6 billion, while transaction fees dropped 27.2% to $173,700, signaling reduced block-space demand.
Capital flows stayed negative, with realized capitalization change weakening from -1.4% to -2.1%. Net unrealized profit/loss slipped to -33.0%, remaining far below normal ranges and consistent with late-stage correction dynamics where most holders sit in losses.
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