Bitcoin (BTC) could return above $100,000 as the 2028 halving approaches, Anthony Scaramucci says, though analysts increasingly dispute whether the four-year cycle still holds.
Key Points:
- Scaramucci expects Bitcoin to regain $100,000 as the 2028 halving reduces new supply.
- The next subsidy cut is expected around Apr. 2028, when the block reward falls to 1.5625 BTC.
- Other analysts question whether Bitcoin’s historic four-year price cycle remains a reliable guide.
Bitcoin Halving
CryptoPotato reported that Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, made the forecast Tuesday during an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box. Bitcoin briefly reached $65,000 that day. The asset had not closed above $100,000 since Nov. 13, 2025.
The next halving is scheduled at block 1,050,000, with countdown estimates pointing to around Apr. 2028. Bitcoin stood at block 963,063 Tuesday, and the event will cut the mining subsidy from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.
Halvings occur every 210,000 blocks, reducing the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation, and Scaramucci argues that the recurring supply cut should eventually help push the price back into six figures.
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Scaramucci Cycle
The forecast comes as Bitcoin remains well below its Oct. 6, 2025 peak above $126,000. The asset fell to $86,505 by Dec. 1, then $76,911 on Feb. 1 and $65,734 on Mar. 1, before touching a 2026 low below $58,000 on Jul. 1.
Some market observers are less confident that the old cycle still works.
Scott Melker has noted that Bitcoin ran 1,080 days from its last major low, beyond a historical peak window of roughly 1,060 to 1,070 days. Arthur Hayes has also questioned the four-year framework, while PlanB has placed a possible top anywhere from 2026 to 2028.
Nearer-term policy could also affect sentiment, with the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act scheduled for a Senate cloture vote on Sept. 15, a procedural motion that needs 60 votes and would not pass the legislation itself.
Scaramucci made a similar halving-based call in early 2024, when Bitcoin traded near $43,000. He projected $170,000 by applying a four-times multiple to the halving-day price, but Bitcoin instead peaked above $126,000 in Oct. 2025 after Coin Metrics put its Apr. 20, 2024 halving price at $64,908.
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