Bitcoin (BTC) is moving closer to gold and away from tech stocks after a 25% August rally, as rising yields and rate-hike expectations test its safe-haven case.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has moved above 50%, while its Nasdaq 100 correlation has fallen to roughly 33%.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.79% on Sept. 1, increasing pressure on risk assets.
- Markets were pricing about a 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September as oil stayed above $90 a barrel.
Bitcoin Macro Pressure
Analysts placed Bitcoin’s changing correlations against a tougher macro backdrop as investors weighed renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, higher energy prices and tighter financial conditions. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.79% on Sept. 1, its highest level since January 2025, while major U.S. stock indexes fell that day.
Money markets also raised the probability of a September rate hike to about 60% after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that inflation remained a concern. Oil prices above $90 a barrel added another inflation risk. That mix can increase demand for traditional defensive assets.
One point requires clarification in the liquidity argument. The $12.5 billion transaction scheduled for Sept. 3 is a U.S. Treasury cash-management buyback, not a Federal Reserve purchase, while the New York Fed separately plans about $17 billion in reinvestment purchases through Sept. 14.
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Grayscale Gold Correlation
Grayscale research published Aug. 27 shows Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold above 50%, up from near zero early this year, while its Nasdaq 100 correlation fell from above 60% to about 33%. Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl framed the shift as a possible return of the debasement trade.
The change matters because Bitcoin has often traded like a high-beta technology asset rather than a monetary hedge.
A stronger link with gold and weaker relationship with the Nasdaq suggest its market behavior is changing, but correlation alone does not establish a permanent safe-haven role.
TradingView data cited in the report showed the XAU/BTC ratio up more than 1.2% this month after two months of declines. Because gold is the numerator in that ratio, a rise means gold strengthened relative to Bitcoin, so the move does not by itself show Bitcoin outperforming gold.
Bitcoin entered this test after gaining about 25% in August, which strengthened the store-of-value argument before macro conditions tightened again. Earlier in 2026, its gold correlation was near zero and its Nasdaq link was above 60%, making the current shift notable but still recent.
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