在四月初，標普500指數因就業數據優於預期而上升了1.5%，比特幣幾小時內隨即飆升3.2%。以太幣亦迅速上升2.8%，而主要交易所的成交量激增至過去30日平均的127%。這種同步走勢並非偶然，恰好體現了自比特幣誕生以來，傳統股票與加密貨幣市場之間日益錯綜複雜的互動。
對於投資者、交易員及金融分析師來說，了解這種關係已成為制定有效市場策略的關鍵。隨着數碼資產由邊緣試驗成長為與主流金融體系接軌的4.2萬億美元市場，與股票的聯繫日益加深，時而削弱，亦歷經轉變，值得更細緻地檢視。
當中本聰於2009年推出比特幣時，基本上與華爾街幾乎毫無瓜葛。早期加密愛好者憧憬以另類形式對抗傳統金融——數碼資產能作為對抗股票市場波動和中央銀行政策的避難所。
這種獨立論述於2017年比特幣首輪大升浪期間仍然適用。雖然加密貨幣當年飆升近1,400%，但價格波動與主要股指幾乎無關。2017年期間，比特幣與標普500的皮爾森相關系數僅為0.15，顯示兩者幾無顯著聯繫。
到2020年，隨着新冠疫情引發市場史無前例的波動，比特幣與股票同步在三月流動性危機期間下挫。這段時間的相關系數急升至0.6，是以往難以想像的。
這種整合因機構投資者進場而加速。至2023年，約74%的比特幣交易量來自機構玩家，2017年時僅有20%。大型企業開始將比特幣納入資產負債表，傳統金融機構則開設加密貨幣交易台及投資產品。
來到2025年，這種關係更見成熟。根據彭博終端的數據，比特幣與納斯達克綜合指數過去一年的30日滾動相關性平均為0.51——明顯高於過往，但呈現時而收斂時而背馳的走勢。
加密貨幣為何跟隨股票走？
投資者重疊
最直接的聯繫源自投資者基礎的重疊。過去對加密貨幣持懷疑態度的機構投資者，現時已將部分資產配置到數碼貨幣。這些大戶在調整整體風險時，會同時影響兩個市場。
金融數據公司Chainalysis報告，機構投資者現時持有約63%的比特幣流通量，高於2021年的48%。而當中不少機構亦同時大舉持有股票，自然形成了相關性通道。
風險偏好上落
加密貨幣已被視為「風險資產」，在投資者對經濟前景感到樂觀，追求更高回報時表現較佳。當市場緊張或不明朗時，同一批投資者經常會同時減持加密貨幣和高增長股票，並轉投債券或黃金等安全資產。
聯儲局的貨幣政策尤見明顯影響。2025年1月聯儲局釋出減息訊號時，納指與比特幣齊升——科技股指數三日升幅3.1%，比特幣更飆升7.2%。反之，3月出乎意料的通脹數據則由兩市同步下跌。
科技及金融創新重疊
金融科技與加密基建的融合進一步拉近市場。大型金融機構現時提供傳統證券與加密貨幣的交易服務，區塊鏈技術亦越來越多應用於傳統金融體系。
這類技術融合延伸至市場基建。2025年2月，貝萊德現貨以太幣ETF於紐交所上市，首月資產超過50億美元。此類產品將加密資產價格直接與傳統交易所及投資者行為聯繫起來。
天然盟友還是偶然同步？
加密貨幣與科技股的相關性尤為值得關注。自2022年起，比特幣與納斯達克的相關性（平均0.45至0.65）遠高於與標普500（通常為0.35至0.55）等廣泛指數。
多重因素推高了這種緊密聯繫：
技術基礎
兩個範疇同樣以技術創新為基礎。推動科技股估值的因素——運算能力提升、網絡效應、數碼轉型——同樣利好加密貨幣生態。
2025年2月，Nvidia公佈突破性的AI運算力，其股價即升9.2%。同時，專注AI的加密貨幣如Render Token與Fetch.ai分別勁升12.6%及15.1%，突顯科技突破可推動兩個板塊同步上升。
財務績效指標
科技企業與加密項目同樣具有類似財務特質——重視增長多於即時盈利，依賴網絡效應，估值常以未來增長潛力而非現時盈利為準。
這種共同點令兩者極為受利率變化影響。2025年3月聯儲局上調利率預測時，納指及主要加密貨幣跌幅相若，因投資者重新評估高增長資產的未來估值。
人才重叠
傳統科技公司與加密貨幣項目的人才流動加強了兩者連結。僅在2024年，逾3,800名專業人士從FAANG（Facebook/Meta、Apple、Amazon、Netflix、Google/Alphabet）跳槽到專注加密的企業（LinkedIn數據）。
這種專業知識與理念的交流，讓兩大範疇於業務發展和市場反應上自然協同。
當加密貨幣自走其道
儘管兩者相關性提升，加密貨幣仍會間中「脫鉤」——獨立於股市走勢，展現出獨特的市場動態。
法規觸發
加密貨幣市場對監管消息尤其敏感，往往顯著影響加密板塊但對整體股市影響甚微。2025年3月，美國證監會專為去中心化金融平台批出監管框架，DeFi領域兩天內應聲大升18.3%，但主要股指則變化不大。
相反，2025年2月歐洲公布更嚴格的加密稅制，比特幣即跌6.7%，即使當天股市表現理想。這種監管主導的脫鉤現象說明政策動向可暫時凌駕兩市關聯。
供應及技術事件
不同於股票，多數加密貨幣供應受預設機制規限，且具獨立技術事件影響價格。2024年4月比特幣第四次「減半」令產出速率減慢，隨後三個月，比特幣與納指相關系數降至僅0.21，比特幣大幅領漲。
其他如協議升級、代幣分配等技術變革，亦會帶來加密板塊獨有的價格走勢，暫時脫離大市相關模式。
新興市場採用
新興地區的用戶基數擴張（如通脹嚴重或銀行體系不發達地區）令當地對加密貨幣的需求與發達市場脫節。2024年阿根廷貨幣危機期間，本地比特幣成交量暴升347%，價格較全球高12%，與美股走勢幾乎無關。
這種地區性採用使加密貨幣對部分全球市場波動更具抗逆力。Chainalysis數據顯示，2024年新興市場的加密貨幣交易量按年增長38%，遠超發達國家（17%），說明用戶基礎日趨多元，減弱傳統金融市場牽連。
推動兩市的無形之手
雖然偶有脫鉤事件，但加密貨幣及股票市場最終同樣受制於宏觀經濟，形成長線相關。
通脹與貨幣政策
各國中央銀行行動依然是影響兩市場的最強力量之一。2025年1月，聯儲局主席鮑威爾暗示暫緩加息，標普500及比特幣即同步上升——股票升1.8%，比特幣24小時內升4.3%。
同樣，4月消費物價指數顯示通脹降至2.4%，促使股票與加密資產齊齊反彈，因投資者預期貨幣政策變得有利。
Growth Indicators
經濟增長指標
Broader economic indicators consistently influence both asset classes. Strong employment reports, manufacturing data, and consumer spending figures typically boost both stocks and cryptocurrencies, while signs of economic contraction pressure both markets downward.
整體經濟指標一向都會同時影響兩種資產類別。強勁就業報告、製造業數據同消費開支數字，通常都會推高股票同加密貨幣，而經濟收縮跡象則會令兩個市場都受壓向下。
This shared sensitivity to economic fundamentals creates a backbone of correlation that persists despite periodic divergences. First-quarter GDP data exceeding expectations in April 2025 corresponded with multi-week rallies in both markets, with the S&P 500 gaining 4.2% and Bitcoin rising 7.8% over the subsequent 10 trading days.
呢種對經濟基本因素同樣敏感，為兩個市場建立咗持續存在嘅相關骨幹，即使偶有分歧。2025年4月第一季GDP數據超預期，促使兩個市場連升數周，標普500指數十個交易日內升咗4.2%，比特幣同期升7.8%。
Global Risk Sentiment
全球風險情緒
Geopolitical developments and shifts in global risk appetite affect capital flows across all asset classes. The regional banking crisis of March 2023 demonstrated how contagion fears can spread across financial systems, impacting both traditional and digital assets simultaneously.
地緣政治發展同全球風險偏好嘅轉變，都會影響各類資產嘅資金流向。2023年3月區域性銀行危機，展示咗恐慌蔓延可以如何迅速擴散至整個金融體系，傳統及數碼資產都同時受累。
More recently, tensions in the South China Sea in February 2025 triggered risk-off sentiment that affected both markets, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.7% and Bitcoin falling 4.5% in a single trading session. Such events reinforce the reality that both markets now exist within the same global financial ecosystem, subject to similar investor psychology and risk assessment.
最近2025年2月南海局勢緊張，觸發咗市場避險情緒，納斯達克單日跌2.7%，比特幣跌4.5%。呢啲事件再次印證，兩個市場而家都處於同一個全球金融生態之下，受到類似投資者心理同風險評估影響。
Institutional Integration
機構化融合
The growing institutional presence in cryptocurrency markets represents perhaps the most significant factor driving correlation with traditional equities. This integration has accelerated dramatically in recent years, reshaping market dynamics.
愈來愈多機構參與加密貨幣市場，可能係帶動其與傳統股票市場相關性的最重要因素。近年呢種融合明顯加快，徹底改變咗市場動態。
ETFs and Traditional Financial Products
ETF及傳統金融產品
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 marked a watershed moment, bringing billions in institutional capital to the cryptocurrency market through familiar investment vehicles. By May 2025, these ETFs collectively managed over $36 billion in assets, with daily trading volumes regularly exceeding $1.2 billion.
2024年1月現貨比特幣ETF獲批，成為市場分水嶺，數十億機構資金經由熟悉的投資工具湧入加密市場。到2025年5月，相關ETF總資產超過360億美元，每日成交量常常超過12億美元。
This development created direct transmission mechanisms between equity market flows and cryptocurrency valuations. When broad market selling pressure emerged in March 2025, Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of $420 million over five trading days, contributing to downward pressure on Bitcoin's price that mirrored broader equity market declines.
呢個發展建立咗股票市場資金流同加密貨幣估值之間嘅直接傳導。2025年3月大市出現廣泛拋售壓力時，比特幣ETF五個交易日流出4.2億美元，相應令比特幣價格受壓，反映同股市同步下跌。
Corporate Treasury Adoption
企業資金管理採用
Major corporations continuing to add Bitcoin and other digital assets to their balance sheets further cements the relationship between cryptocurrencies and corporate financial health. As of April 2025, 32 public companies held Bitcoin worth over $12 billion on their balance sheets, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.
越來越多大型企業將比特幣及其他數碼資產納入資產負債表，進一步鞏固加密貨幣與企業財務健康之間的關聯。據Bitcoin Treasuries數據，2025年4月時，有32間上市公司共持有價值超過120億美元嘅比特幣。
This integration means that factors affecting corporate valuations - interest rates, earnings expectations, and economic outlook - now directly influence cryptocurrency demand through corporate treasury activities. When MicroStrategy announced an additional $500 million Bitcoin purchase in February 2025, the company's stock and Bitcoin briefly moved in tandem as investors processed the implications for both assets.
這種融合意味著影響企業估值的因素，如利率、盈利預期及經濟前景，而家會經由企業財資操作直接影響加密貨幣需求。2025年2月，MicroStrategy 宣布再購入5億美元比特幣，公司股價同比特幣都一度同步上升，因為投資者要消化這消息對兩類資產嘅意義。
Professional Trading Operations
專業交易機構
Sophisticated trading firms now apply similar strategies across both markets, often using algorithms that respond to the same technical indicators and market signals. According to a JPMorgan survey, 78% of proprietary trading desks now trade both cryptocurrencies and equities, up from 45% in 2022.
進階交易機構現時會喺兩個市場用同類策略，經常以相同技術指標及市場訊號作買賣決策。根據一份JPMorgan調查，有78%自營交易台而家同時買賣加密貨幣及股票，高於2022年時的45%。
These professional operations often employ strategies that explicitly leverage correlation, including statistical arbitrage approaches that profit from temporary divergences between related assets across traditional and crypto markets. Such strategies can actually reinforce correlation over time by quickly closing gaps when prices temporarily decouple.
這類專業操作經常會運用明確利用相關性的策略，包括利用傳統及加密市場兩者相關資產短暫分歧的統計套利。這些策略實際上可能進一步加強長遠的相關性，因為當價格短暫脫節時，可以迅速追平差價。
Projecting Future Correlation Patterns
未來相關性走勢展望
As the cryptocurrency market continues maturing, its relationship with equities will likely become increasingly nuanced. Several evolving factors will shape this relationship in coming years:
隨住加密貨幣市場不斷成熟，其與股市的關係很可能會愈趨微妙。未來幾年有幾個變化因素將會塑造這種關係：
Regulatory Clarity
監管明朗化
The ongoing development of comprehensive regulatory frameworks for digital assets will influence correlation patterns. Clear regulations that facilitate institutional participation may strengthen connections with traditional markets, while restrictive policies could temporarily increase decoupling events.
數碼資產全面監管框架的不斷制定，會影響相關性走勢。明確規例令機構更易參與，或會加強與傳統市場聯繫；相反，嚴格政策則可能令市場短暫出現更多脫鈎。
The forthcoming decisions from global financial regulators on central bank digital currencies, stablecoin oversight, and DeFi governance will be particularly consequential for how these markets interact.
未來全球金融監管機構對央行數字貨幣、穩定幣監管及去中心化金融規範的決策，對市場互動關係尤為關鍵。
Market Maturation
市場成熟化
As cryptocurrency markets grow more liquid and develop more sophisticated derivatives markets, their behavior may increasingly resemble traditional financial markets. The cryptocurrency options market has grown over 215% since 2023, now representing over $16 billion in daily trading volume and enabling more complex risk management strategies similar to those used in equities markets.
隨住加密貨幣市場流動性提升及衍生品市場更成熟，其行為模式愈來愈似傳統金融市場。自2023年以來，加密貨幣期權市場規模升超過215%，而家每日成交超過160億美元，讓市場可運用更複雜的風險管理，類似於股票市場。
This infrastructure development supports institutional participation but may also reduce some of the unique market dynamics that have historically caused cryptocurrencies to diverge from equities.
這種基建發展促進機構參與，但同時有機會削弱以往令加密貨幣走勢獨特、與股市現分歧的那些元素。
Mainstream Adoption Milestones
普及應用里程碑
Progress toward everyday cryptocurrency usage could potentially reduce correlation with speculative assets over time. The implementation of Bitcoin as legal tender in multiple countries since El Salvador's pioneering move in 2021 represents steps toward utility-driven valuation models rather than purely speculative ones.
加密貨幣逐步進入日常使用，有機會隨時間減低與投機資產的相關性。自薩爾瓦多2021年率先將比特幣列為法定貨幣後，多國跟隨推行，反映市場逐漸走向以應用價值主導，而非單靠投機。
Payment processors report that cryptocurrency transaction volumes for actual goods and services increased 87% year-over-year in 2024, suggesting gradual progress toward usage patterns that might eventually reduce correlation with purely speculative assets.
支付平台報告指2024年加密貨幣支付實物商品與服務的交易量按年升87%，反映市場正慢慢培養出新應用模式，最終或會減低與純投機資產的掛鈎。
Strategic Implications for Market Participants
對市場參與者的策略啟示
The evolving relationship between cryptocurrencies and stocks creates both challenges and opportunities for different market participants:
加密貨幣同股票之間關係的演變，為不同市場參與者帶來挑戰同機遇：
For Investors
對投資者而言
The strengthened correlation challenges conventional portfolio diversification strategies. When Bitcoin was uncorrelated with traditional assets, it offered clear diversification benefits despite its volatility. Current correlation patterns suggest investors may need more sophisticated approaches to achieve true diversification.
相關性上升，對傳統資產組合分散策略構成挑戰。過去比特幣與傳統資產無相關性，即使波動但仍然有明顯分散作用。現時的相關走勢暗示，投資者要更精細地操作，先能達成真分散。
Tactical asset allocation strategies have evolved in response, with many investment firms now treating Bitcoin as part of their "risk asset" allocation that gets adjusted alongside equity exposure based on macroeconomic conditions.
因此，戰術性資產配置策略亦有轉變，唔少投資公司已把比特幣列入「風險資產」配置，按宏觀經濟狀況同步調整股票同比特幣的持倉。
For Traders
對交易員
For active traders, correlation patterns offer predictive value and arbitrage opportunities. Many quantitative trading strategies now incorporate "correlation trading" approaches that profit from temporary divergences between cryptocurrency and equity markets that are expected to reconverge.
對積極交易員而言，相關走勢既有預示性亦帶來套利機會。好多量化交易策略而家都採用「相關交易」方法，利用加密貨幣同股票市場臨時脫鈎但預計會回歸的機會賺錢。
These strategies typically monitor correlation breakdowns in real-time and position for a return to established relationships - effectively betting that temporary decoupling will prove short-lived in most cases.
這種方法通常實時追蹤相關性崩潰，並部署持倉等待重新接軌——即係押注大多數脫鈎情況只會維持短時間。
For Businesses
對企業
For companies operating in the digital asset space, understanding correlation has operational implications. Cryptocurrency mining firms, exchanges, and service providers now routinely hedge their business exposure to account for how broader market conditions affect their revenue streams and treasury holdings.
做數碼資產業務的公司，要理解相關性有實際經營意義。加密貨幣礦企、交易所同服務商，而家都慣常對沖業務風險，好讓他們更好應對大市行情對收入來源同金庫的影響。
This corporate risk management approach increasingly resembles practices in traditional finance, with companies using derivatives and diverse treasury strategies to manage exposure to both crypto-specific and broader market factors.
這類企業風險管理手法愈來愈似傳統金融業，普遍利用衍生工具及多元化財資部署，管理涉及加密資產及資本市場大市走向的雙重風險。
Final thoughts
總結思考
The relationship between cryptocurrency and equity markets continues to evolve, reflecting the integration of digital assets into the broader financial ecosystem. While correlation has generally strengthened over time, it remains dynamic - influenced by market structure, regulatory developments, technological innovation, and changing investor behavior.
加密貨幣同股票市場之間的關係持續變化，反映住數碼資產不斷融入大金融生態。雖然長遠看兩者相關性愈來愈強，但其實都好動態，受市場結構、監管進程、科技創新同投資者行為轉變等多方面影響。
For market participants, this relationship demands continuous reassessment and adaptive strategies. The days when cryptocurrency could be analyzed in isolation have clearly passed, but so too has the simplistic view that digital assets merely amplify stock market movements. Instead, a more nuanced understanding recognizes both the connections and distinctions between these markets.
市場參與者必須不斷重新評估，以及調整策略。單靠將加密貨幣獨立分析的時代已經過去，將之等同只係股市放大鏡咁簡單亦唔再成立，而家要具備更細緻的認知，以理解兩者既有聯繫亦有差別。
As traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets continue their convergence, correlation patterns will likely reflect this hybrid reality - with periods of tight correlation punctuated by divergences driven by factors unique to each market. This dynamic relationship ultimately reflects cryptocurrency's dual nature: as both an alternative to traditional finance and, increasingly, an extension of it.
隨住傳統金融同加密市場持續融合，相關性走勢會呈現混合特點——既有走勢緊扣嘅時候，亦有受各自獨有因素影響而脫鈎的階段。這種動態關係，正好展現加密貨幣雙重身份：既係傳統金融以外的選擇，同時也愈來愈係傳統體系的延伸。