多個自2010年代早期持有大量比特幣的長期休眠Bitcoin錢包於2025年5月突然活躍，金融分析師高度關注這一動態。
最引人注目的是，一個與已倒閉的BTC-e交易所相關聯的錢包，在自2012年後長期沒有活動下，最近轉移超過3,400枚比特幣——按照現價計算約值3.2億美元。該筆交易本金最初不足5萬美元，在休眠期間價值驚人升幅達6,400%。
與此同時，另一個錢包自2013年以來首次轉移了2,300枚比特幣，而鏈上分析機構近期還發現至少另有七個休眠錢包——每個持有500至1,000枚比特幣——最近幾週亦出現新活動。這些總體上的資金流動代表著逾8億美元的比特幣有可能重新流動於市場。
這些錢包激活也與大規模比特幣流入交易所同時發生：2025年5月初，超過7,000枚比特幣被轉入主要交易平台，包括2,400枚從Ceffu（前Binance Custody）轉到幣安的主交易所，以及Coinbase Institutional及Bitfinex等大型存款交易。剛巧比特幣在95,000美元附近橫行，這些巨鯨錢包的轉帳引起市場熱議：是否意味著早期持有者或正考慮在牛市頂部退出？
「這些古老錢包重現江湖往往預示市場關鍵轉折點，」區塊鏈分析平台Glassnode研究主管Sara Ramirez指出。「當經歷過多輪牛熊的持有者開始移幣，通常會出現大幅價格波動——但方向未必能預測。」
雖然部分市場人士將這些動向解讀為利淡信號，但實際交易所數據則展現更複雜情況。儘管有高額流入，過去一周比特幣從交易所的淨流出達到15,000枚，令交易所整體存款降至2,200,000枚，是數月以來最低水平。這個分歧反映大型持有者或準備拋售之際，更多投資者反而選擇將幣提至冷錢包作長線儲存。
為何巨鯨動向現時格外重要
現時的巨鯨活動，正正發生於比特幣經歷第四次「減半」後的大市環境。2024年4月的減半將礦工獎勵由6.25降至3.125枚每區塊，歷來這類事件常常先於牛市，但亦帶來整體生態鏈的經濟壓力。
主要礦企已開始調整財庫策略以因應。北美大型比特幣礦企Riot Platforms於2025年4月披露出售了475枚比特幣，以維持運營流動資金——顯示現有環境下礦工財政壓力日增。
「比特幣生態正同時受多重因素影響，」主流加密場外交易商Cumberland首席策略師Marcus Chen解釋：「一方面，ETF及企業財庫配置令機構參與日益成熟；另一方面，減半後經濟現實令礦工重新審視資本管理；再加上休眠錢包重啟，足以引發加劇波動。」
歷史經驗顯示，這類早期大戶的舉動值得密切關注。2017年牛市時，數個2010-2011年錢包於市頂前數週被重啟；2021年底，一批2013年錢包在比特幣高位短暫調整前亦有活躍。這些行為往往可作為市場訊號的參考。
理解心理與市場動力學
休眠十年或更長的比特幣錢包，是加密生態中非常特別的一群。他們通常屬早期用戶，當時比特幣僅值單位或雙位數，在持幣至今賺取了極高未實現收益，同時亦見證每一輪重大市場周期。
這些持有人作決定的心理因素不容低估。許多人曾堅持不賣，即使經歷八成以上回調，帳面價值曾上升至千萬或億萬。他們一旦選擇轉移比特幣，往往標誌著對比特幣前景或自身財政目標出現重大重新評估。
「早期持有者大致可分三類，」專研加密投資者行為的經濟心理學家Dr. Amanda Rodriguez解釋：「一是堅信理念，無論價格都極少賣幣者；二是策略性累積，不時再平衡組合者；三是機會主義的短炒者，專等市況極端出手。近期的錢包動態，很可能主要屬於第二、三種人，既有技術因素，也有基礎面因素促成。」
區塊鏈溯源分析結果顯示，近期交易動機多樣。與BTC-e相關的3,400枚比特幣流動，可能是前用戶取回資產，或與2017年交易所倒閉的法律程序有關。該錢包牽涉過洗錢問題，令其意義更複雜。
其他重啟錢包，則顯示如遺產轉移、為安全目的合併錢包、或為應付潛在大波動提前部署等行為。公開的區塊鏈數據只能證實資金流動本身，而實際背後意圖仍屬猜測，除非知曉帳戶背後持有人身份。
今次週期特別之處，是這批長期持有人轉移資產時操作更細緻。與過去直接轉入交易所不同，不少近期交易先經過隱私增強工具如CoinJoin，或先存放於新錢包後才到最終地址，反映長線玩家安全意識提升。
觀察市場情緒的領先指標
比特幣來往交易所的流動，一直是市場情緒最可靠的指標之一。交易所流入——特別是長期持有者送幣進所——常引發拋壓；而資金淨流出則多被視作積累與對未來升值的信心。
近期交易所流動詳盡數據亦顯示細緻模式：2025年5月1至7日期間，約7,000枚比特幣流入主要交易所，包括：
- 幣安獲Ceffu存托2400枚和匿名錢包1,100枚
- Coinbase Institutional錄得1,800枚流入，包括來自Cumberland及Three Arrows Recovery Fund的轉帳
- Bitfinex亦有960枚存款，其中約600枚來自長期休眠地址
- Kraken及OKX合共收到約740枚來自多方的比特幣
這些流動合共約值6.65億美元，但仍要放在更大趨勢脈絡中分析。據Coinglass及Glassnode數據，同期比特幣淨流出達15,000枚，顯示零售及中等投資者在巨鯨可能分散資本時仍積極長線持幣。
「交易所資金分歧正是市場大轉勢的典型現象，」Arkham Intelligence研究主管李偉說：「當聰明資金開始換碼，不同持有者組群的行為往往出現截然差異。關鍵在於，高信心的零售市場能否承接早期巨戶潛在的賣壓而不導致大跌。」
歷史數據亦給予今次現象重要參照。2017年牛市資金大量流入交易所，約於市頂前18日達高峰；2021年則僅有約12日滯後。如果這些模式繼續出現，近日流入或意味短中線應提高警覺。
減半後格局下的新挑戰
比特幣第四次減半帶來的經濟現實，在礦業板塊尤為明顯，大幅壓縮全行利潤空間，促使各大礦商重新檢視財庫管理，其中數家主流礦企已選擇沽貨以維持運營現金流。
Riot Platforms於2025年4月沽出475枚比特幣，正反映這個調整過程。比特幣每枚成本由減半前的25,000美元升至約37,000美元，即使價格處高位，也令經濟壓力大增。其他上市礦企如Marathon Digital Holdings及CleanSpark亦面對同樣環境，但處理方式各異。
「減半根本性地改變了礦工的經濟計算，」Galaxy Digital Mining高級分析師張晨解釋：「即使比特幣屢創新高，新發行量減半，令資本配置變得更困難。一部分企業賣幣資助提升效益或擴張，亦有礦商選擇舉債保留比特幣。」
礦工賣壓進一步影響市場供需平衡。每日新發行量已減至約450枚（即約4,275萬美元），即使...
modest selling from miners can influence price dynamics, particularly if it coincides with distribution from long-term holders.
礦工適度的沽貨有機會影響價格動態，尤其當此舉與長期持有者的分派同步時，影響會更為明顯。
Institutional strategies beyond mining also show evidence of strategic repositioning. Regulatory filings indicate that several Bitcoin ETFs experienced minor outflows in late April, totaling approximately $410 million across all U.S. spot ETF products. While modest relative to the $14.2 billion in total ETF assets under management, these outflows represent the first sustained withdrawal period since the products launched in early 2024.
除了挖礦，機構層面亦出現策略性重新部署的跡象。監管文件顯示，數隻比特幣ETF於四月下旬錄得小幅資金流出，累計美國現貨ETF產品合共流出約4.1億美元。雖然相對於ETF管理總資產的142億美元來說，這數字不算大，但這已經是2024年初這些產品推出以來首次出現持續資金流出。
Contrasting with these potential distribution signals, companies like MicroStrategy continue their accumulation strategy. The business intelligence firm acquired an additional 12,000 BTC in Q1 2025 through a combination of cash reserves and convertible note offerings, bringing its total holdings to approximately 213,000 BTC. This concentration of Bitcoin in corporate treasuries creates new forms of market influence that didn't exist in previous cycles.
與這些潛在沽貨訊號形成對比的是，如MicroStrategy等公司繼續執行入貨策略。該商業智能公司於2025年第一季再透過現金儲備及可換股債券集資增持了12,000枚BTC，使其總持倉增至約213,000枚BTC。比特幣集中於企業財庫這種現象，造成了過往周期從未出現過的市場影響力。
What the Data Reveals
Beyond exchange flows and wallet movements, sophisticated on-chain metrics offer deeper insights into market conditions and potential trajectory. Several key indicators currently present a mixed but generally cautious picture:
除咗交易所流動情況同錢包動作之外，進階的鏈上數據指標可以為市況同未來走勢提供更深入見解。目前，幾個重要指標呈現出參差，但總體偏向審慎的訊號：
The Exchange Whale Ratio, which tracks the proportion of large transactions relative to total exchange inflows, registered 0.28 in late April - below the 0.3 threshold historically associated with reduced selling pressure from major holders. This relatively low reading suggests that while some whales are active, they aren't yet dominating market flows.
用作追蹤大型交易佔交易所流入比例的「交易所鯨魚比率」於四月下旬錄得0.28，低於歷來被視為賣壓減弱界線的0.3。這個較低的數字反映，雖然有部分大戶活動，但未至於主導市場流向。
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), a measure of market-wide profitability, currently sits at 8%, with its 30-day moving average still negative. For context, previous market cycle peaks saw NUPL exceed 40% before significant correction phases began. The current modest reading suggests potential upside remains before widespread profit-taking emerges.
反映市場整體盈利情況的「未實現盈虧（NUPL）」目前約為8%，而其30日平均值仍然呈負數。作為對比，以往市場高位時，NUPL往往會超過40%才會進入大幅調整階段。現時的溫和水平，意味著市場或尚有上行空間，普遍大量獲利套現情況暫時未出現。
The MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, stands at 2.4 - elevated but well below the 7+ readings that marked previous cycle peaks. This indicates the market may be warming but hasn't reached excessive valuation territory by historical standards.
用作比較比特幣市值同實現價值的「MVRV Z分數」目前為2.4，偏高但遠未達到過往周期頂峰超過7的水平。這指出市場雖然升溫，但以歷史標準來講，並未踏入過度高估區域。
Reserve Risk, a metric designed to assess the risk-reward balance of Bitcoin investment based on price and hodling behavior, has climbed to 0.024 - approaching but not yet reaching the 0.03+ levels associated with optimal profit-taking opportunities. This suggests experienced market participants may view current prices as approaching but not yet reaching optimal exit points.
反映持有行為同價格之間風險回報權衡的「儲備風險」升至0.024，接近但仍未觸及被視為最優獲利點位的0.03以上水平。這意味著有經驗的參與者或者睇現價為接近，但未到理想離場位置。
Perhaps most tellingly, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures the profit ratio of moved coins, has averaged 1.12 over the past week. Values significantly above 1.0 indicate that holders are realizing profits on their movements, but the current reading remains modest compared to late-stage bull market levels, which typically exceed 1.3.
其中一個最值得留意的指標，是「已花出盈利比率（SOPR）」，用於衡量移動比特幣時的盈利比例。過去一星期的平均值為1.12。大於1代表持有人正在實現利潤，但此數值較牛市後段經常見到的1.3以上水平，屬於溫和增長。
"The on-chain data presents a nuanced picture," says Elena Kowalski, lead analyst at CryptoQuant. "We're seeing early signs of distribution from long-term holders, but the magnitude remains controlled compared to previous cycle tops. The behavior of coins acquired during the 2022-2023 bear market will likely determine whether this develops into a major correction or simply a consolidation phase."
「鏈上數據呈現一幅細緻的景象，」CryptoQuant首席分析師Elena Kowalski表示。「我們見到長線持有者有初步分派跡象，但規模比以往頂部周期明顯受控得多。2022至2023年熊市買入的幣，未來既去向很大程度會影響，是否引發大跌市，還是只係整固期。」
Beyond the Blockchain
Market participants increasingly recognize that Bitcoin doesn't exist in isolation from broader economic forces. The current whale activity occurs against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, with several factors potentially influencing holder behavior:
市場參與者愈來愈意識到，比特幣唔再係孤立於大環境之外。現時鯨魚行為，正正係宏觀經濟不明朗之下出現，有多個因素可能影響持有人決策：
Inflation concerns remain elevated despite recent Federal Reserve policy adjustments. April 2025 CPI data showed 4.3% year-over-year inflation, exceeding consensus expectations and reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as an inflation hedge. This environment generally supports Bitcoin's value proposition, but also creates volatility as investors recalibrate inflation expectations.
即使聯儲局最近調整政策，通脹憂慮仍然高企。2025年4月美國CPI按年升幅達4.3%，高於市場預期，進一步鞏固咗比特幣作為對沖通脹工具的定位。呢個環境有助支撐比特幣價值，但同時因為投資者重估通脹預期，亦會帶來波動。
Geopolitical instability has intensified in several regions, creating both tailwinds and headwinds for cryptocurrency markets. Emerging market currency pressures - particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America - have driven increased demand for Bitcoin as a dollar alternative, while regulatory responses to these capital flows have created compliance challenges for exchanges and institutional participants.
多個地區地緣政治不穩加劇，對加密貨幣市場帶來順逆兩面影響。新興市場貨幣壓力，特別係東南亞同南美，加強咗對比特幣作為美元替代品的需求，不過相關資金流動引致各地監管收緊，亦為交易所和機構帶來合規壓力。
Traditional financial markets show signs of stress, with the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio reaching 36.7 - approaching levels last seen during the dot-com bubble. This valuation tension creates complex dynamics for Bitcoin, which has shown increasing correlation with risk assets during periods of market stress despite its conceptual positioning as a safe haven.
傳統金融市場有壓力跡象，S&P 500經周期調整後市盈率升到36.7，接近科網泡沫時期水平。這種估值緊張令比特幣走勢更複雜，因為即使比特幣理論上屬避險資產，但事實上市況緊張時與風險資產相關性正在提高。
Recent regulatory developments also influence market psychology. The SEC's ongoing enforcement actions against several major cryptocurrency platforms contrast with more accommodative approaches in jurisdictions like Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE. This regulatory divergence creates both opportunities and risks for market participants, potentially motivating some long-term holders to reduce exposure in certain regions.
近期監管動態亦深深影響市場情緒。美國證監會陸續對多個大型加密平台採取執法行動，與香港、新加坡、阿聯酋等地區寬鬆政策形成鮮明對比。這種監管落差既帶來機會，亦增加風險，部份長線持有者或因此選擇減少某些區域的曝險。
"The interplay between on-chain movements and macro factors has never been more complex," observes James Richardson, chief economist at Bitwise Asset Management. "Early Bitcoin holders often had pure conviction plays with minimal consideration of traditional financial correlations. Today's market requires navigating monetary policy, regulatory frameworks, and institutional capital flows alongside the blockchain fundamentals."
Bitwise Asset Management首席經濟學家James Richardson表示：「鏈上資金動向與宏觀因素互動情況前所未見之複雜。早期的比特幣持有者，大多數純粹憑信念，甚少考慮傳統金融市場的相關性。現今市場，不單要關注鏈上基本面，同時要善用貨幣政策、監管框架與機構資金流等傳統金融工具。」
Lessons from Previous Cycles
To properly interpret current whale movements, it's instructive to examine similar periods in Bitcoin's history. Three particular episodes offer relevant parallels:
要理解現時鯨魚行為，可參考比特幣歷史上類似時期。以下三個個案頗有參考價值：
In November 2017, approximately 25,000 BTC moved from wallets dating to 2011-2012, with a significant portion eventually reaching exchanges over a 2-3 week period. Bitcoin peaked at $19,783 on December 17, 2017, before beginning its extended bear market. The lag between major dormant wallet activations and the market top was approximately 22 days.
2017年11月，約有25,000枚比特幣自2011至2012年間建立的舊錢包轉出，大部份於2至3星期內被送往交易所。比特幣隨後於12月17日升至$19,783頂峰，然後展開長時間熊市。從大型休眠錢包活躍到市場見頂，相隔約22日。
During April-May 2021, several dormant wallets collectively moved around 45,000 BTC after years of inactivity. This coincided with Bitcoin reaching $64,000 before correcting to $30,000. A similar pattern emerged in November 2021, with dormant wallets activating roughly 10 days before Bitcoin's all-time high of $69,000.
2021年4月至5月，數個長年未動的錢包合共釋出約45,000枚比特幣，正值比特幣升至64,000美元，隨後跌回30,000美元。類似情況2021年11月亦曾出現，當時休眠錢包於比特幣創歷史新高（$69,000）前約10日活躍。
Most recently, in October-November 2023, as Bitcoin recovered from its cycle low, several wallets dating back to 2013-2014 moved approximately 12,000 BTC. However, unlike previous examples, these movements preceded further upside rather than a market top, highlighting that context matters when interpreting such signals.
最近一次在2023年10至11月，比特幣由周期低位摸底回升，期間數個源自2013至2014年的錢包共移動了約12,000枚。但今次不同以往，這些資金活動反而預示後市上升，而不是見頂，說明解讀相關訊號時必須視乎實際市況。
"Historical patterns suggest whale movements alone aren't deterministic," explains Dr. Timothy Brooks, cryptocurrency historian and author of "Digital Gold Chronicles." "Their significance depends on market structure, liquidity conditions, and concurrent capital flows. What's particularly interesting about the current cycle is that we're seeing these movements earlier relative to the halving than in previous cycles, which could indicate a more mature market with accelerated price discovery."
加密貨幣史學家及《數位黃金紀事》作者Dr. Timothy Brooks解釋：「歷史經驗顯示，鯨魚資金移動本身並非決定性信號，真正重要的是市場結構、流動性環境，以及當時資金流向。今輪周期最有趣之處，在於這些資金動作比往常更早於減半前出現，可能代表市場成熟度提升，價格發現機制加快。」
The lessons from these episodes suggest that while dormant wallet activations often precede major market transitions, the specific direction and timing aren't guaranteed. The signal value comes not from the movements themselves but from their convergence with other technical, fundamental, and sentiment indicators.
這些事例說明，休眠錢包的活躍雖常常預示重大市況轉變，但具體方向和時機無法保證。訊號價值其實在於其與其他技術、基本面和情緒指標同時吻合時才會突顯。
What It All Means for Different Market Participants
For investors navigating the current landscape, the implications of whale movements vary considerably based on time horizon and risk tolerance:
對於不同市場參與者，現階段鯨魚行為的意義會因投資年期及風險取態而大有分別：
Long-term holders would be wise to monitor these signals without overreacting. Historical data shows that even during distribution phases, Bitcoin has typically delivered strong returns over multi-year horizons. The current on-chain metrics suggest caution but not panic, particularly for investors with conviction in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.
長線持有人應密切留意這些訊號，但無需過度反應。歷史數據表明，即使處於分派周期，比特幣以多年期計通常仍然有不俗回報。現時鏈上數據建議保守觀望，但毋須恐慌，特別是對比特幣長遠價值有信念的人。
Active traders should prepare for increased volatility as liquidity potentially fragments. The divergence between high-profile inflows and broader outflows may create dislocations in market depth, resulting in sharper price movements on lower volumes. Risk management becomes increasingly important in such environments.
短線交易者則要準備應對流動性碎片化帶來的波幅擴大。知名機構資金流入與其他資金流出分化時，市場深度可能出現斷層，導致低成交量下價格波動更劇烈，風險管理於此環境尤為重要。
Institutional investors should contextualize these movements within their broader allocation strategies. For those with systematic rebalancing approaches, the current environment may warrant tighter risk controls but not wholesale position changes. The relatively contained MVRV and NUPL readings suggest market excess remains limited relative to historical cycle peaks.
機構投資者需要將這些資金動作放回自身整體配置策略來考慮。對於採用系統性再平衡投資法的機構，當前環境或需加強風險控管，但無需作出大幅倉位調整。現時MVRV及NUPL數據都反映，比市高位周期相對保守。
Bitcoin miners face perhaps the most complex calculus. The combination of reduced block rewards and potential price volatility creates challenging treasury management decisions. Conservative operations might consider hedging strategies to ensure operational continuity through potential market turbulence.
礦工屬於情況最複雜的一群。減少區塊獎勵加上潛在價格波動，令財務策略甚為棘手。穩健經營取向者或需要考慮對沖策略，以確保即使遇上市況波動仍能維持營運。
"The message from early holder behavior is one of strategic repositioning rather than wholesale capitulation," notes Ramirez of Glassnode. "The measured nature of these movements suggests experienced market participants taking some profits while maintaining significant exposure - a balanced approach that reflects the maturation of the crypto market."
Glassnode的Ramirez指出：「早期持有者行為傳遞的訊息屬策略性調整，而非全面撤退。這些有節奏的動作表明，經驗豐富的參與者整體上只是平衡一部份利潤，但仍保持大量持倉，反映加密市場逐漸成熟。」
Final thoughts
The reactivation of dormant Bitcoin wallets, combined with complex exchange flow patterns and institutional adjustments, signals an inflection point in the current market cycle. However, unlike previous periods where similar patterns preceded dramatic reversals, the measured nature of current movements suggests a market
由於多個休眠比特幣錢包重新活躍，加上交易所流動及機構部署日趨複雜，現時正處於一個潜在市場周期轉角點。不過，與過往同類型資金活動經常觸發劇變相比，今次市場動作明顯節奏有度，反映整體市況.....that is evolving rather than overheating.
這個周期與以往有所不同，有幾個主要因素：比特幣經由ETF及企業金庫被機構化，加密貨幣用途已超越單純投機，並且在許多司法管轄區獲得更明確的監管準則。這些發展同時帶來了穩定力量和新的波動來源。
對於市場參與者來說，最重要的信息並不是大型修正即將到來，而是風險與回報的平衡正在轉變。早期採用者 —— 即見證過比特幣發展每一階段的人 —— 的行為為經驗豐富的投資者如何看待當前市況提供了寶貴的信號。他們的操作顯示正變得更為謹慎，但尚未出現恐慌。
隨著比特幣步入第四次減半後的周期，這些數碼先驅的動向提醒我們，在加密貨幣市場歷史未必重演，但往往有相似的節奏。巨鯨的智慧，不在於完美捕捉時機，而在於察覺基本故事和技術格局開始轉變的時刻。
未來數周將揭示，這些早期信號會否演化為更大規模的分發階段，還是單純屬於牛市持續期間的投資組合再平衡。無論如何，這進一步突顯了監察區塊鏈中最有經驗參與者 —— 見證過一切，依然屹立的人 —— 的價值。