洲際交易所（ICE），作為紐約證券交易所的母公司及全球 13 個受監管交易所和市場的運營者，正就向區塊鏈預測市場平台 Polymarket 投資 20 億美元進行深入談判。Polymarket 是加密領域內最具創新性的應用之一。
根據 2025 年 10 月 7 日星期二的正式公告，擬議交易將使 Polymarket 的估值達 80 至 100 億美元，這成為傳統金融對加密原生平台最大規模的投資之一，也反映機構對區塊鏈衍生品市場的接納程度不斷提升。
ICE 的投資時機尤具重要意義，因為 Polymarket 正準備於 2021 年與商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）和解後，相隔三年重回美國市場。
該公司於 2025 年的多項戰略行動——如收購衍生品交易監管場所 QCEX、取得關鍵監管批核，以及吸納大量機構資本等——令 Polymarket 處於傳統金融、加密創新與衍生品市場監管演進的交匯點。
戰略邏輯：ICE 為何力捧預測市場
ICE 對 Polymarket 的興趣，絕不限於純粹的財務投資，這是一場關於傳統衍生品市場與區塊鏈預測平台融合的戰略豪賭。ICE 行政總裁 Jeffrey Sprecher，這位將 ICE 由能源交易平台蛻變為全球交易巨頭的傳奇人物，闡述了該投資的戰略層面：
「這次夥伴關係可讓 ICE 與 Polymarket 聯手，開拓互補市場的獨特機遇，」Sprecher 表示，對合作前景充滿信心。這句精心措辭的聲明，暗示 ICE 構想兩者在資本之外進行技術融合、市場開發及產品共建，善用各自優勢，開展更深入的營運整合。
ICE 市場地位及資產：若要體會此投資的重要性，必須理解 ICE 的市場定位。該公司營運著全球市值最大的股票市場紐約證券交易所，以及包括 ICE Futures Europe 和 ICE Futures U.S. 在內的多個期貨市場，涵蓋能源、農產品、利率、股票指數與外滙等合約。
ICE 亦擁有債券和數據服務業務、橫跨多資產類別的結算所，以及為房屋金融業服務的按揭科技平台。這個多元化基建每年創造巨額收入，令 ICE 成為全球最舉足輕重的金融市場運營者之一。
預測市場作為衍生工具創新：對 ICE 而言，預測市場是衍生品交易的自然演進——衍生品價值取決於基礎事件或資產價格。傳統的期貨和期權讓參與者對沖風險或投機價格走向，而預測市場則將這一模式延展至任何可量化結果，如選舉、企業業績、或地緣發展等。
Polymarket 已證明，區塊鏈預測市場能吸納巨額流動性，產生準確的概率評估並具備真正的價格發現功能。平台上的市場往往比專業民調或專家分析更準確，說明經過財務激勵的市場集體智慧產生了珍貴信息。
一向致力於創造流動而高效的風險轉移及價格發現市場的 ICE，透過 Polymarket 可拓展到鄰近市場，利用創新科技捕捉年輕、數碼原生的用戶群，這些群體以往較難接觸傳統衍生品市場。
Polymarket 回應：攜手機構力量 配合消費者創新
Polymarket CEO 兼創辦人 Shayne Coplan 形容這次潛在合作，是將 ICE 的機構聲望及營運經驗，結合 Polymarket 的消費者創意及加密原生基建：
「與 ICE 合作能糅合其機構實力，以及 Polymarket 的用戶專長，向投資者帶來頂級產品。」Coplan 在公告中表示。
這種定位反映出 Polymarket 的戰略重點：爭取機構認受性、打通傳統金融分銷渠道、穩固監管形象，同時保留平台的用戶體驗優勢和推動發展的技術創新。
解決合法性鴻溝：儘管增長數據亮眼、應用價值顯著，基於加密資產的平台始終受到傳統投資者、監管者和金融機構的質疑。與 ICE —— 金融市場基建界最受尊重的品牌之一 —— 合作，可即時為 Polymarket 贏得多年來難以自主建立的信譽。
這種信譽對 Polymarket 尤為關鍵，不論是申請監管審查、建立銀行關係、談判數據合作，還是吸引有合規要求的機構用戶，均至關重要。
分銷及流動性優勢：ICE 與機構市場參與者（銀行、對沖基金、資產管理人、自營交易公司及企業財庫部門等）的深厚關係，是 Polymarket 產品寶貴的分銷渠道。這份多年來靠交易所業務建立起來的人脈，或可大幅加快 Polymarket 在機構層面的滲透，突破傳統加密平台進入困難局面。
此外，ICE 的莊家關係及清算基建或可提升 Polymarket 的流動性深度及運營穩健，解決部份市場質素問題，進一步完善預測市場功能。
Polymarket 的運作：區塊鏈預測市場的機理
瞭解 Polymarket 的商業模式和營運結構，有利評估平台估值 80-100 億美元及 ICE 投資的理據：
二元賭注交易：Polymarket 允許用戶針對各類現實事件進行二元（是/否）預測交易，涵蓋政治、體育、經濟、娛樂、科技及時事等範疇。每個市場皆有明確的可驗證結算標準，例如：「比特幣在 2025 年 12 月 31 日前會否突破 150,000 美元？」、「聯儲局會否在 11 月 FOMC 會議減息？」等。
股份定價機制：用戶購買和沽售「是」或「否」立場的股份，價格介乎 0 至 1 美元。價格反映了隱含機率——如「是」股份價格為 0.67 美元，即市場認為該事件發生機率約為 67%。結果揭曉後，勝出股份結算為 1 美元，落敗則歸零。
這種架構激勵有信息的交易，創造套利機會。例如用戶認為市場錯估概率時，可持相反倉位博取利潤。這種模式結合集體智慧與財務誘因，往往帶來比專家預測更準確的概率評價。
區塊鏈架構：Polymarket 建基於 Polygon（一個以太坊二層擴容網絡），提供低成本高吞吐的環境，支援大規模市場活躍交易。用戶主要以 USDC（一種與美元掛鈎的穩定幣）入金，實現全球無通編難題參與。
區塊鏈基建帶來透明度（全部持倉及成交皆公開且可查驗）、以智能合約消除對手方風險、並實現無需許可的自由參與——任何持有加密貨幣者，不論國籍或傳統金融渠道，都可進入市場。
結算與預言機系統：市場結算，即確認事件結果及派彩，是運作的關鍵挑戰。Polymarket 採用去中心化結算系統，指定解決人員（多以 UMA Protocol 的預言機基建協助）根據預設標準確定結果。若參與者對結果存疑，設有爭議解決機制以覆核判決。
近期平台擴展與產品發展
Polymarket 於 2025 年積極擴充產品線，展現平台由單一政治預測市場進化至全面涵蓋可量化事件：
公司業績預測：平台最近推出了針對上市公司業績的市場，允許用戶就企業是否勝過、達標或遜於分析師預期進行交易。本類市場與傳統期權市場直接競爭。 institutional investors express earnings-related views, representing Polymarket's ambition to serve professional traders alongside retail participants.
機構投資者發表與盈利相關的觀點，反映出 Polymarket 希望同時為專業交易員及散戶參與者提供服務的雄心。
Earnings markets require sophisticated resolution mechanisms and tight coordination with earnings announcement timing, but they tap into an enormous addressable market - quarterly earnings seasons generate trillions in trading volume across equity and options markets globally.
盈利市場需要複雜的結算機制，並且要與業績公布時間緊密協調，但這類市場的潛在規模極為龐大——每季的業績發佈期在全球股票及期權市場帶來數以萬億計的交易量。
Bitcoin Deposits: Polymarket now accepts Bitcoin deposits alongside its primary USDC infrastructure, expanding accessibility for users holding cryptocurrency's flagship asset. This integration reflects recognition that Bitcoin holders represent a substantial potential user base who may prefer holding their primary cryptocurrency rather than converting to stablecoins for platform participation.
比特幣存款：Polymarket 現時除了主要支援 USDC，亦同時接受比特幣存款，令持有主流加密貨幣資產的用戶更容易參與。這項整合反映平台意識到，比特幣持有人本身已是一個相當龐大的潛在用戶群，而且他們未必願意將比特幣兌換成穩定幣參與平台交易，可能更想直接以主要加密貨幣參與。
Expanded Event Categories: Beyond core political and financial markets, Polymarket has diversified into entertainment (awards show outcomes, box office performance), technology (product launch timing, company announcements), climate events (temperature records, extreme weather), and geopolitical developments (diplomatic breakthroughs, conflict escalation). This diversification reduces concentration risk and demonstrates prediction markets' applicability across virtually any domain with verifiable outcomes.
擴展市場類別：Polymarket 除了核心的政治及金融市場，亦已拓展到娛樂（頒獎禮結果、票房表現）、科技（產品發佈時機、公司公告）、氣候事件（溫度紀錄、極端天氣）及地緣政治發展（外交突破、衝突升級）等不同範疇。這種多元化有助減低集中風險，同時證明預測市場基本上可以廣泛應用於任何擁有可驗證結果的範疇。
The Regulatory Journey: From CFTC Settlement to Market Re-Entry
監管歷程：由 CFTC 和解到重返市場
Polymarket's relationship with U.S. regulators represents one of the most significant developments in cryptocurrency derivatives regulation, establishing precedents that may influence how authorities approach blockchain-based prediction markets:
Polymarket 與美國監管機構的關係，是加密貨幣衍生品規管領域其中一個最具代表性的發展，亦為政府日後如何處理區塊鏈預測市場訂下了重要先例：
The 2021 CFTC Settlement: In January 2021, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged Polymarket with operating an unregistered derivatives exchange and failing to comply with various regulations governing derivatives markets. The CFTC's order highlighted that Polymarket had offered binary options on commodity prices and other events to U.S. customers without appropriate registration or regulatory compliance.
2021 年 CFTC 和解：2021 年 1 月，美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）指控 Polymarket 未有註冊衍生品交易所及違反多項有關衍生產品市場的監管規定。CFTC 的命令指出，Polymarket 向美國用戶提供有關商品價格及其他事件的二元期權，但未有取得適當註冊或符合監管要求。
Polymarket settled these charges without admitting or denying wrongdoing, paying a $1.4 million civil penalty and agreeing to cease offering its services to U.S. persons until achieving proper registration and compliance. This settlement represented one of the CFTC's early enforcement actions against blockchain-based prediction markets, establishing that such platforms fall within the Commission's jurisdiction over derivatives markets.
Polymarket 並無承認或否認指控，而是選擇和解，支付 140 萬美元民事罰款，並同意在取得合法註冊及符合法規前，不再向美國人士提供服務。這次和解是 CFTC 對區塊鏈預測市場的早期執法案例，確立了此類平台屬於該會對衍生品市場的監管範圍。
Three-Year U.S. Market Absence: Following the settlement, Polymarket blocked U.S. IP addresses and implemented geographic restrictions preventing American users from accessing the platform. This exclusion occurred during a period of explosive growth in cryptocurrency markets and increasing mainstream interest in prediction markets - particularly around the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where Polymarket's markets garnered significant media attention despite American users' inability to participate directly.
三年缺席美國市場：和解之後，Polymarket 屏蔽了美國 IP 地址並實施地區限制，令美國用戶無法訪問平台。這一排除正值加密貨幣市場爆發式增長，以及預測市場進一步獲得主流關注之時——尤其是 2024 美國總統大選期間，Polymarket 的相關市場獲得大量媒體關注，儘管美國用戶未能直接參與。
The U.S. market absence created a strategic imperative for Polymarket: either remain a non-U.S. platform serving international users exclusively, or undertake the complex, expensive process of achieving regulatory compliance enabling American market re-entry.
缺席美國市場令 Polymarket 必須作出戰略抉擇：要麼繼續只做非美國市場，專注國際用戶；要麼投資複雜且昂貴的程序，取得合規資格以重返美國市場。
QCEX Acquisition and Regulatory Approvals: In summer 2025, Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-registered derivatives clearing organization and designated contract market. This acquisition provided Polymarket with existing regulatory licenses and infrastructure necessary for offering derivatives products to U.S. customers in compliance with CFTC requirements.
收購 QCEX 及監管批准：2025 年夏季，Polymarket 收購了已註冊為 CFTC 衍生品清算機構及指定合約市場的 QCEX。這次收購令 Polymarket 直接獲得發展美國合規衍生品產品所需的牌照及基建，能夠合法向美國客戶提供服務。
The acquisition represents a common pathway for cryptocurrency firms seeking regulatory legitimacy - purchasing existing licensed entities rather than enduring the lengthy, uncertain process of obtaining new licenses from scratch. By acquiring QCEX's registrations, Polymarket essentially obtained the "keys" to operate legally in the U.S. derivatives market, subject to maintaining compliance with applicable regulations.
這種收購是加密貨幣企業取得合規地位的常見途徑——即買入現有持牌機構，而非從頭開始長時間、充滿不確定性的牌照申請過程。透過收購 QCEX 的牌照，Polymarket 基本上等於已擁有在美國合規經營衍生品市場的「門票」，只需持續保持法規合規。
The company has reportedly secured necessary regulatory approvals to launch U.S. services, though specific operational details, product offerings, and launch timing remain unclear. ICE's involvement may accelerate this process by providing regulatory expertise, compliance infrastructure, and political capital that smooths interactions with authorities.
據報導，Polymarket 已獲得展開美國業務所需的監管批准，但具體營運細節、產品和推出時間表仍未明朗。ICE 的參與可能會加快進度，藉著其監管經驗、合規基建及政治網絡，有望令與監管機構的溝通和合作更加順利。
High-Profile Markets and Political Connections
高知名度市場與政治關聯
Polymarket has gained substantial mainstream attention through high-profile markets that captured public imagination and demonstrated prediction markets' utility:
Polymarket 透過多個引發公眾想像力的高知名度市場，獲得主流媒體高度關注，亦展現預測市場的實用價值：
U.S. Presidential Election Markets: Polymarket's 2024 presidential election markets generated unprecedented volume and media coverage, with hundreds of millions of dollars traded on various election-related outcomes. These markets often provided more responsive, granular probability assessments than traditional polling, updating continuously as new information emerged rather than waiting for periodic survey releases.
美國總統選舉市場：Polymarket 於 2024 年總統大選打造的相關市場錄得前所未見的交易量及媒體曝光，數億美元資金押注於各種選舉相關結果。這些市場通常能比傳統民調提供更即時、更細緻的概率評估，隨最新資訊連續更新，而非等民調定期發佈。
The platform's election markets attracted sophisticated participants including political operatives, data analysts, and professional traders who deployed substantial capital based on proprietary research and information advantages. This activity created markets that many observers considered more accurate than professional political forecasting or polling aggregation.
平台的選舉市場吸引到政治圈中人、數據分析員與專業交易員等高端玩家，他們憑自有研究及資訊優勢投入大量資金參與，令市場整體被不少觀察者認為比專業的政治預測或民調彙總更準確。
Trump Family Investment: In August 2025, Polymarket received a multi-million-dollar investment from 1789 Capital, the venture capital firm founded by Donald Trump Jr. The former president's son also joined Polymarket's advisory board, establishing direct connections between the platform and one of America's most prominent political families.
特朗普家族投資：2025 年 8 月，唐納·特朗普二世創辦的風險投資公司 1789 Capital 向 Polymarket 注入數百萬美元資金，而這位前總統之子亦加入了 Polymarket 顧問團，與美國最知名的政治家族之一建立明確的聯繫。
This investment generated controversy given Polymarket's role hosting markets on Trump-related political outcomes, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest or information advantages. However, it also provided political validation and suggested that prominent Republican figures view prediction markets favorably - a potentially important signal given that regulatory approvals often involve political considerations beyond purely technical compliance.
這宗投資因 Polymarket 本身亦設有大量特朗普相關政治預測市場而引發爭議，令外界關注會否出現利益衝突或資訊優勢不公問題。然而，這個投資亦為平台帶來一定政治背書，顯示美國重要的共和黨人物都對預測市場持正面態度——考慮到監管審批往往涉及技術以外的政治因素，這種訊號尤為重要。
The Trump connection may prove strategically valuable as Polymarket navigates regulatory processes and builds relationships with policymakers who control the company's ability to operate in the U.S. market.
與特朗普家族的聯繫亦可能成為 Polymarket 在推進監管流程及建立關鍵決策者關係時的戰略資本，有助平台於美國市場拓展。
Traditional Finance Convergence: The Broader Trend
傳統金融融合：大趨勢
ICE's potential investment in Polymarket represents the latest and most substantial example of traditional financial institutions engaging with cryptocurrency-based platforms:
ICE 可能對 Polymarket 投資，是傳統金融機構進一步參與加密貨幣原生平台的最新、最大型案例之一：
Precedent Transactions: Major financial institutions including Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and others have launched cryptocurrency trading desks, custody services, and investment products throughout recent years. However, these initiatives primarily focused on spot cryptocurrency trading or Bitcoin derivatives rather than novel applications like prediction markets.
相關前例：Fidelity、Goldman Sachs、摩根大通等大型機構這幾年都已開展加密貨幣交易業務、資產託管及投資產品，但這些多以現貨交易或比特幣衍生工具為主，較少涉足如預測市場等創新應用。
ICE's willingness to invest $2 billion in a crypto-native platform - rather than simply building competing infrastructure internally - suggests recognition that innovation increasingly originates outside traditional institutions and that acquisition or partnership may be more effective than organic development.
ICE 願意直接向一個原生加密貨幣平台注資 20 億美元，而非完全自己從零搭建同類基建，反映傳統巨企愈來愈重視創新多來自機構外部，透過收購或合作比自行開發來得更為高效。
Derivatives Market Evolution: Traditional derivatives markets have evolved substantially over recent decades, with electronic trading, algorithmic market-making, and retail participation transforming previously exclusive institutional domains. Prediction markets represent a natural extension of this democratization, enabling anyone to express views on event probabilities through simple, accessible interfaces.
衍生品市場演變：過去幾十年傳統衍生品市場已經歷顯著轉變，電子交易、算法做市、及零售客參與都令昔日的機構專屬領域大幅開放。預測市場正是這種「金融民主化」的自然延伸，讓任何人都可以透過簡單易用的界面就各種事件表達 probabilistic 看法。
ICE likely recognizes that younger generations increasingly consume financial services through mobile applications and expect cryptocurrency integration, social features, and streamlined user experiences that legacy derivatives platforms struggle to provide. Polymarket's consumer-friendly design and cryptocurrency-native infrastructure may offer a template for modernizing derivatives market access.
ICE 亦大概意識到現時年輕一代消費金融服務，愈來愈傾向以手機 app 為主，對加密貨幣、社交功能與流暢體驗有極高期望，這些都是傳統金融平台所難以滿足。Polymarket 本身注重用戶體驗及原生加密貨幣基礎設施，或能成為推動衍生品市場現代化的範例。
Valuation Analysis: Justifying $8-10 Billion
估值分析——如何解讀 80-100 億美元？
Polymarket's $8-10 billion valuation in ICE's proposed investment invites analysis of whether the platform's fundamentals support such pricing:
ICE 有意按 80 至 100 億美元入股 Polymarket，引發市場關注平台基本因素能否支撐這個估值：
Revenue and Profitability: Prediction markets typically generate revenue through trading fees or spreads between buying and selling prices. While Polymarket hasn't disclosed detailed financial metrics, the platform's substantial trading volumes - reportedly billions of dollars across major markets - suggest meaningful revenue generation potential.
收入與盈利能力：預測市場主要靠交易佣金或買賣差價賺錢，而 Polymarket 雖然未有公開詳細財務數字，其交易總量卻據指達到數十億美元，顯示潛在營業額相當可觀。
However, prediction markets typically operate with thin margins and face substantial operational costs including technology infrastructure, resolution systems, customer support, and regulatory compliance. Whether Polymarket operates profitably at scale remains unclear, though the company's ability to attract growth capital suggests investors project future profitability even if current operations remain unprofitable.
不過，預測市場的單位利潤空間通常很薄，還要承擔大量技術基建、結算系統、客戶支援及符合法律合規等開支。Polymarket 是否可在大規模經營下達到可持續盈利仍是未知數，但公司現能持續吸引增長資本，顯示投資者相信未來盈利前景，即使現階段暫不賺錢。
Comparable Company Analysis: Traditional derivatives exchanges trade at substantial valuations relative to revenue, reflecting their high barriers to entry, regulatory moats, recurring revenue streams, and operational leverage as volume scales. CME Group, which operates major derivatives exchanges, maintains a market capitalization exceeding $80 billion on approximately $5 billion in annual revenue - a 16x revenue multiple.
同行估值比較：傳統大型衍生品交易所，多數有極高入場門檻、監管壁壘、穩定收入來源及業務規模杠杆，因此市值普遍是收入的高倍數。例如 CME Group 擁有全球領先的衍生產品交易所，其市值逾 800 億美元，年收入約 50 億，即相等於 16 倍收入。
If Polymarket generates even $500 million in annual revenue - a plausible figure given reported trading volumes and typical fee structures - an $8-10 billion valuation would represent 16-20x revenue, comparable to traditional exchanges. However, this analysis assumes Polymarket can achieve and maintain such revenue levels while managing competitive, regulatory, and technological challenges.
假如 Polymarket 按現時的交易總量及典型費率，能夠做到每年 5 億美元收入，那麼 80-100 億估值相當於 16-20 倍收入，其實與傳統交易所相若。不過，這前提係 Polymarket 能達到並長期維持這種收入，同時能駕馭各種競爭、監管及技術挑戰。Growth Potential and Strategic Value: 也許最重要的是，ICE 的估值好大機會反映咗大家對 Polymarket 增長潛力同戰略價值嘅預期，而唔淨係睇當前嘅財務數據。如果預測市場，就算只係捕捉到傳統衍生品成交量嘅一小部分，而且因為區塊鏈基建而開發到新類型市場，咁總體可捕捉嘅市場規模都足以支持更高嘅估值。
而且，策略性收購者好多時會願意以高於公司獨立估值嘅價格去收購啲公司，只要目標公司有技術、能力或者市場地位可以補足佢哋現有業務，達到協同效應。
Final thoughts
雖然 ICE 呢筆投資對於以加密貨幣為本嘅預測市場嚟講係一個具標誌性嘅肯定，仍然存在唔少重大挑戰：
- Regulatory Uncertainty: 雖然有咗啲進展，但區塊鏈衍生品嘅監管框架仍然未完整。未來如果有監管變動，可能會限制產品供應、加重合規成本，或者以其他方式限制市場進入，對業務模式構成威脅。
- Market Liquidity and Depth: 預測市場需要有唔少流動性先可以有效運作，吸引到認真參與嘅玩家。Polymarket 能唔能夠喺多個同時進行緊的事件入面，維持住深厚而有效率的市場，同時又要同現有的傳統選擇競爭，仲有待觀察。
- Technology Risk: 智能合約漏洞、預言機操作風險，或者區塊鏈基礎設施失靈，都有機會損害平台完整性同用戶信任。要管理好呢啲技術風險，需要持續投入同高端技術能力。
- Competition: 預測市場獲得成功係必然會吸引資金充裕的新創公司同現有衍生品平台競爭。要喺發展急速嘅市場保持競爭優勢，需要不斷創新同適應變化。
暫時嚟講，全球其中一間最受尊重嘅金融市場營運商準備斥資 20 億美元投資，等於係對區塊鏈預測市場一次極大認可，同時都穩固咗 Polymarket 作為領頭羊嘅位置，為佢重返全球最大、最成熟的衍生品市場作好準備。至於呢一盤具野心的賭注最終雙方係咪都會得益，就要睇埋之後嘅執行、監管變化同市場接受度了。