比特幣於2024及2025年價格節節上升，不單突破舊有期望，更衝破過往難以想像的十萬美元關口。到2025年中創下約十二萬美元的新高，比2022年熊市低位升幅約600%。這波急速升浪令比特幣成為過去兩年內表現最強的資產之一。如此驚人的升幅之後，投資者不禁懷疑：牛市是否已經完結，還是比特幣仍有上升空間？
儘管出現過波動——包括2025年10月一次閃電回調，價格短暫跌至105,000美元——整體趨勢依然向上且不減韌力。每次10–20%的回落都很短暫，比特幣很快便收復失地。事實上，許多市場觀察者認為這場牛市尚未結束。由華爾街資金流到全球經濟，種種現象顯示2025年的比特幣牛市大有機會持續。
主流金融機構分析師紛紛提出六位數目標，而鏈上數據亦未見泡沫頂部的狂熱徵兆。簡單而言，比特幣2025年牛市不是已死，而是邁向成熟。
新一輪牛市——「四年周期」是否已成過去？
在加密貨幣圈內，牛市指的是資產價格持續上升、投資熱情高漲及採納速度加快的時期。比特幣傳統上每四年左右出現爆發性牛市，與「減半」周期同步（每四年新發行量減半的機制作動）。回顧過去週期，特別是2013、2017和2021年，比特幣都曾一年內暴升千分之一以上，之後則陷入長達幾年的「加密寒冬」。這種節奏被不少人視為加密市場近乎「自然定律」的「四年周期」。
然而，2024–2025年的週期卻打破了這種格局。
雖然比特幣於2024年4月如期經歷了減半（礦工獎勵由6.25減半至3.125 BTC），但今年的價格走勢和動力與以往大不相同。首先，減半活動本身並非升浪唯一推手。分析指減半早已被市場預計並由精明投資者提前反映（ahead of time）。不像2016或2020年，當年供應減震被視為牛市導火線，這次市場焦點迅速轉向機構資金流及宏觀經濟大勢。一份業界分析便總結，比特幣減半「不會令牛市持續」，吸引新資金尤其需要靠現貨比特幣ETF。
另一大不同，就是宏觀經濟背景。
以往比特幣牛市都在低息或減息、流動性充裕的年代發生。
這次牛市則在央行為抗通脹而維持高息的環境下開始——對比特幣來說前所未有。這帶來新變數：過去牛市的爆炸性升幅，部分來自槓桿和極度寬鬆，現時受更收緊的金融環境抑制。
同時，加密市場日益成熟流通，更多機構入場——即使四年前都遠未及此。種種改變示意，今次牛市很可能較以往周期更持久、更平穩（雖然或許不如過往瘋狂）。
行內很多人已經向舊有四年節奏說再見。Forbes一份2025市場分析提到：「機構資金急升，加上高息下的流動性緊縮……證明今周期完全不同於以往。」現時比特幣升勢不再只是散戶瘋搶然後暴跌，更受結構性因素主導。正如後文將提及的——ETF、監管、國際資金輪動等因素讓比特幣牛市不止於「減半年」後一年；甚至2025餘下日子，甚至2026年，比特幣都可能走出一個更長、更溫和但持續的新周期。
比特幣牛市持續的10項理由
以下將詳列十個主要理由，解釋為何比特幣牛市仍未完結。由機構資金大量湧入、ETF帶來新資金流，到比特幣網絡基本面創歷來新高，合起來顯示這波升勢並非全靠炒作，而可能正處於半途而未到終點。
機構採納空前，ETF資金流入創新高
牛市仍有力氣延續的最明顯證據之一，就是機構資金的大舉進場，特別是借助新上市的ETF。對比2017年散戶主導的浪潮，2025年的升幅已變成華爾街及大戶主導。過去一年，各大金融巨企由BlackRock、Fidelity到國際銀行等，都不約而同增持比特幣。
現貨比特幣ETF的推出成了遊戲規則轉捩點，為機構提供一條簡單、受監管的投資渠道。
數字最能說明問題。2025年下半年，美國現貨比特幣ETF資金持續淨流入，每星期成交都以數十億美元計。單是十月，連續八天ETF淨買入共為比特幣基金帶來約57億美元新資金。BlackRock的iShares Bitcoin Trust（IBIT）尤甚，吸納約41億美元新資金，現時持有超過80萬枚比特幣，佔總供應近3.8%。
這種機構級吸納史無前例。每當ETF吸收一枚比特幣，在交易所流通的數量就減少——這種供應緊縮對價格支撐的力度，非以往散戶炒風可比。
有分析認為ETF效應才剛啟動。渣打銀行直指強烈ETF需求是其對比特幣牛市樂觀的主因之一。該行指出，年初曾因政治因素出現資金外流，但之後比特幣基金重回數億美元淨流入——證明投資者正藉ETF再度進場。
甚至渣打的研究團隊也提出，現貨比特幣ETF引發的資金潮，對牛市持續的作用，可能比減半更大。ETF開啟了養老基金、對沖基金、家族辦公室等機構「FOMO」的新大門。
機構入場同時也前所未見地認可了比特幣的資產類別地位。不再只是專門的加密基金，銀行及投資公司亦積極參與。
據報道，摩根士丹利及富國銀行等亦開始容許高資產客戶配置比特幣，甚至主動建議小量加密資產。如此保守的機構發出認可標誌，與數年前截然不同。
這代表比特幣正穩步邁向主流投資組合的核心資產——「旁觀」的龐大資金池還有大量未入場空間。只要機構熱潮持續，牛市難言完結。事實上，華爾街的加密熱潮才剛剛開始。
宏觀順風：減息及流動性充裕
比特幣並非孤立於世，全球宏觀經濟環境愈來愈對其有利。經過2022–2023年的一輪急速加息，央行現正步近關鍵轉折點。許多經濟學家推測，到2025年底美聯儲等主要央行將開始減息，以支持放緩的經濟增長。
這種轉變對比特幣及其他風險資產或帶來強勁推動。
為何利息重要？當低息或轉為寬鬆時，金融體系流動性增加，投資者為追求回報更願意承擔風險。比特幣過往表現近似高風險資產——資金便宜時股市及加密貨幣齊升。反之，2022年急速加息便引發加密寒冬。
現時通脹正緩和，收水周期見頂，局面或將逆轉。減息傾向為加密牛市提供直接動力——簡單來說，就是為高風險資產創造有利環境，如某市場指南指出。
事實上，2024年市場預期貨幣政策轉向，已令比特幣重燃升勢。分析指出，比特幣及整體加密市場早在市場預期美聯儲政策轉向時開始反彈。展望2025年，外界普遍預期將見決定性轉折。
根據Euronews，主要央行2025年廣泛預期將減息，「風險偏好情緒或將進一步推動比特幣」——錢更便宜、流動性重現，自然令牛市壽命更長，吸引更多資金流入加密市場。
另外，全球經濟不確定性已令各國央行變得更寬鬆。 footing，間接地對比特幣帶來好處。對經濟衰退、地緣政治緊張或信貸壓力的擔憂，往往會引發有支持性的政策反應（如減息或刺激措施），從而推高另類資產。比特幣受益的不僅僅是因為市場有更多資金，而是因為它逐漸成為宏觀不穩定時期的對沖工具（下一點會詳述）。渣打銀行團隊明確指陳他們看好美國減息，正是比特幣有機會升至 2025年底前 $200,000 的主因之一。
在他們看來，寬鬆的聯儲局政策不僅會削弱美元，也會提升對儲值工具的需求，為比特幣需求帶來「完美風暴」。
總結來說，2025年貨幣環境將從逆風轉為順風。如果下半年即使只有幾次減息，也足以向市場釋放新一波流動性。配合比特幣在機構投資者之間的敘事日益鞏固，這筆流動資金很大可能再度流入加密資產。
預期聯儲局轉為寬鬆、美元走弱及資金充裕，都是比特幣牛市持續的重要憧憬。
動盪世界中的「數碼黃金」
撇開短線買賣和投機因素，比特幣牛市邏輯一直都建基於它作為一種儲值工具的吸引力 —— 現代的「數碼黃金」。來到2025年，在全球局勢充滿不明朗的大背景下，這種說法愈來愈有市場。
由於經濟及地緣政治的不穩定持續增溫，愈來愈多投資者視比特幣為對沖市場動盪、通脹及貨幣貶值的避風港。這類避險需求成為支撐牛市的重要支柱。
可將其與黃金作比較：2024年底和2025年，金價創下新高，反映投資者對傳統市場的焦慮及追求穩健資產的需求。比特幣同樣因為資金尋求避險而受惠。渣打銀行分析員觀察到，當黃金創新高之際，「不少投資者開始考慮以比特幣作為另一種資金避險工具」。比特幣作為「數碼黃金」—— 一種免受通脹和政府影響的硬資產 —— 這種概念「正與日俱增」。實際上，比特幣有限的供應量和去中心化特質，使其在持續印鈔和地緣動盪年代下，極具對沖價值。
現實中，去年不少事件都證明了比特幣的吸引力。
每當宏觀形勢不穩 —— 無論是通脹飆升、銀行業出現動盪，甚至國際衝突 —— 往往都與比特幣買盤增加同時出現。例如，當戰爭和制裁擾亂全球市場時，有投資者轉用加密貨幣跨境轉移資本，或以對沖本地貨幣暴跌。於高通脹的新興經濟體，
比特幣的採用率持續增長，因市民要避險本國貨幣崩潰。這些由基層帶起的需求（由尼日利亞至阿根廷）進一步強化了比特幣作為國際避風港的地位，對其價格起了全球性支撐作用。
即使在已發達經濟體，比特幣也越來越被視為對沖財政或政治不確定性的工具。2023年美國上演債務上限危機及政府停擺威脅時，比特幣價格表現堅挺，得益於部分投資者預防美元不穩。正如 Forbes 一篇文章指出，比特幣今次牛市的實力部份來自「它被視為對沖政府失能和金融濫權的工具」。到了2025年，這些觀感已帶動到實質資金流入。機構資產管理人已開始以配置黃金的邏輯去部署比特幣 —— 一種與傳統市場動盪無太大相關性的資產，有望在極端情況下保值。
這一切都意味著，只要前景持續不明朗，比特幣仍有上升動力。它作為數碼黃金的定位，賦予今次升浪一種以往純投機牛市缺乏的「黏性」。那些為了避通脹或危機作對沖而買入比特幣的投資者，大多算是長線持有者，未必會因短線波動就沽貨。這一股穩健、避險帶動的需求為牛市奠定了紮實基礎。
所以即使經濟周期中風險胃納會有起伏，比特幣如今正身兼兩職：牛市時接納風險資金，熊市時吸納避險資本。這有助其價值長期維持在更高水平。簡而言之，比特幣作為「數碼黃金」的可信度，正隨著全球風險增加而逐步提升 —— 正好造就持續的牛市動能。
監管明朗化及政治支持
今次牛市最關鍵的變化之一，就是全球加密貨幣監管氣氛驟然轉向。與過去某些周期環繞比特幣的疑雲和打壓不同，2024–2025年見證了越來越多主要市場、尤其是美國大幅推進監管明朗和友善化。
這種新的監管明確性，釋放了機構參與的潛力，並解決了過去削弱升浪的重要不明因素。隨著各國政策制定者逐步對加密貨幣轉趨正面，比特幣牛市獲得更強的順風，前景更可預測。
2024年初，美國證券交易委員會通過首個現貨比特幣 ETF，就是分水嶺。這個（歷經多年否決才通過的）決定具有劃時代意義：意味監管機構準備將比特幣納入主流金融體系。這一舉動馬上「刺激投資者信心」，並助比特幣強勢突破以往 $50K–$70K 的橫行區。
到2024年尾，美國政壇也出現親加密的新風。特朗普總統意外當選，他在競選期間承諾要令美國成為「全球加密資本」，大大增強了市場樂觀情緒。2024年12月，新政府不斷發表支持加密的言論和人事任命，比特幣首次突破 $100,000 大關。這與2017年遇上各國禁令導致泡沫爆破的情況形成鮮明對比。今次，監管環境為比特幣加持。
進入2025年，美國官方繼續釋放建設性信號。國會正審議有關加密交易及穩定幣的立法，多項法案獲跨黨派支持。
當中備受討論的一項建議 —— 被稱為「比特幣法案」—— 更提出未來數年美國財政部應建立比特幣戰略儲備。雖然這種極端憧憬未必成真，但可見相關討論空間已今非昔比。加密貨幣不再在華府遭到排擠，反而越來越被視為需要理性監管的創新產業。更完備的監管（由稅務指引到託管規則）正吸引更多傳統投資者安心入市。
事實上，不止美國如此。
全球各地，多個司法管轄區已實施或提出更明確的加密監管框架。歐盟的 MiCA（加密資產市場法規）框架於2024年落實，統一 EU 成員國的行規，令歐洲企業和投資者更有信心以明確規則參與加密。英國、阿聯酋等國亦建立加密本地發牌制度。總括而言，全球正出現比特幣及同類資產在金融體系內獲得合法地位的大趨勢。
更關鍵的是，監管明朗解決了昔日牛熊周期中，一遇政府突如其來的干預就令市場恐慌的問題。在這種風險下降下，今次牛市基礎更穩固。
「前路監管環境會更透明，我們也見到前所未有規模的機構資金開始進場。」eToro 經紀公司的市場分析員 Josh Gilbert 稱。
這正是監管值得樂觀的原因 —— 它為大規模資金進入鋪平道路。只要政策路線繼續友善，比特幣有望持續發展。到了2025年，加密和監管的對立關係正在蛻變為一種新型合作，而這正是比特幣從未擁有過的牛市燃料。
減半後的稀缺供應效應
比特幣的設計本質就是稀缺和通縮，這些特點今日愈趨明顯。歷屆牛市最終都由比特幣有限供應量所支撐 —— 而到了2025年，供應進一步收緊。隨著最新一輪減半剛過，比特幣發行速度降至歷史新低。
與此同時，大量比特幣正由長線持有者持有，有效市面流通量進一步減少。這些供求失衡足以持續推高價格。
2024年4月的減半，將區塊獎勵由每區塊 6.25 BTC 減至 3.125 BTC，等如新幣釋放速度大減一半。這種自動供應衝擊每四年就會出現一次，並一向與比特幣最大升浪掛鈎（如2013、2017、2021年）。機制上而言，減半令比特幣「流水」供應變得更稀缺 —— 挖礦者同樣工作、收入卻變少，對靠售幣維持營運的礦工壓力更大。長遠而言，只要需求不減，新供應減少就會對價格有上升壓力。
更重要的是，比特幣總供應 2,100 萬枚的上限已近在眼前。至今已有超過94%的比特幣被挖出。截至2025年年中，約有 1,990 萬 BTC 正在流通，剩下just a little over 1 million yet to be discovered over the next century. In practice, this means new supply is extremely limited. For comparison, gold’s supply grows about 1.5% per year from mining – Bitcoin’s current annual supply growth post-halving is under 1%. Within a few more halving cycles, Bitcoin’s inflation rate will approach zero, effectively making it one of the scarcest assets on Earth.
接下來一百年只剩下一百多萬個比特幣尚未被開採。實際上，呢個代表新供應係非常有限。相比之下，黃金每年透過開採增長大約1.5%——比特幣喺最近一次減半之後，現時每年新增供應增幅已經少於1%。再過多幾次減半之後，比特幣嘅通脹率會趨近零，實際上令佢成為地球上最稀有嘅資產之一。
What does this mean for the bull run?
呢對呢一輪牛市有咩意義？
Simply put, any surge in demand runs into a wall of scarce supply, causing price to rise until equilibrium is found.
簡單嚟講，任何需求激增都會撞到供應稀缺嘅「牆」，令到價格持續上升直至市場達到平衡。
And we are indeed seeing strong demand (from institutions, retail, and even nation-states), as outlined in other points. At the same time, many of the bitcoins in existence are not even available for sale. An increasing percentage is held in long-term storage by investors with strong hands.
正如前面提過，無論係機構、散戶、甚至國家級層面，需求都非常強勁。另一方面，好多現存嘅比特幣其實根本無喺市場出售。愈來愈多比例被長期持有、不願輕易拋售嘅投資者掌握住。
For instance, large “whale” wallets have mostly been accumulating rather than distributing coins during recent market dips. Glassnode data indicates that as of Q4 2025, over 80% of circulating Bitcoin is in profit (i.e. acquired at lower prices) , and much of that supply has remained dormant despite price surging – a sign that long-term holders aren’t cashing out en masse. Every month, some coins drop out of circulation due to lost keys or holders simply choosing not to sell.
例如，大戶錢包（Whale wallets）喺最近幾次市場回調時，大多都係吸納更多，而唔係分派出去。根據 Glassnode 數據，截至2025年第四季，流通中超過八成比特幣都處於盈利狀態（即係以較低價買入），而且當中大部份供應喺價格急升期間都無沽出——反映長線持有人並冇集體套現。每個月仲有部分比特幣因為私鑰遺失，或持有人選擇唔賣，而離開咗市場流通。
This thinning supply was evident during the October 2025 correction: Bitcoin’s price quickly stabilized around $105K–$110K as bargain hunters found few sellers willing to unload large quantities at lower prices.
呢個供應收緊喺2025年10月嗰次調整就好明顯：當時比特幣價格好快喺$105K至$110K附近企穩，因為趁低吸納嘅買家發現好少人肯以低價大量沽貨。
“Bitcoin still has a hard limit of 21 million coins that can ever exist,” a Nasdaq commentary reminded during that pullback, noting that nothing had fundamentally changed about its scarcity. In other words, the bull run’s core value driver – more buyers chasing a scarce asset – remains firmly intact.
納斯達克（Nasdaq）評論亦曾經提醒：「比特幣嘅發行上限永遠係2,100萬個」，稀缺性嘅基本面無任何改變。換句話講，牛市最核心嘅驅動力——愈來愈多買家爭奪稀缺資產——依然十分穩固。
The halving’s impact may not have been immediate fireworks, but its supply shock is quietly at work in the background. Miners, now earning half the Bitcoin they used to, have notably reduced the amount of BTC they sell onto the market.
減半未必一開始就有爆炸性行情，但供應衝擊其實一直默默發酵。礦工現時所得比以前少一半，出售到市場嘅比特幣數量亦顯著減少。
Many miners are instead holding more of their mined coins, betting on higher future prices (a strategy made easier if they have access to alternate financing). In September 2025, miners’ reserves hit a multi-month high, reflecting confidence and reduced selling pressure. This miner behavior, combined with steadfast long-term investors, has created a supply squeeze that underlies the bull trend. As long as demand persists, these supply-side constraints will continue to exert upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. It’s basic economics – and it’s a key reason to believe this bull run isn’t done delivering new highs.
好多礦工反而選擇持有更多新挖出嘅幣，博未來價格更高（有融資來源嘅話，呢個策略更加容易實行）。2025年9月，礦工儲備達到幾個月以來新高，反映信心增加，亦減輕咗賣壓。呢種礦工行為，加埋堅定長線持有者，令供應愈嚟愈收緊，成為牛市背後重要動力。只要需求繼續存在，供應受限就會持續推高比特幣價格。呢啲都係經濟學基本原理——亦係相信今次牛市仍有新高可期嘅關鍵原因。
Network Fundamentals at All-Time Highs
網絡基本面創歷史新高
Bull markets come and go, but Bitcoin’s network fundamentals have been steadily climbing, hitting record after record in 2025 – a strong sign of the network’s health and long-term potential. In this cycle, price isn’t the only thing reaching all-time highs: so are Bitcoin’s hash rate, security, and usage metrics. These robust fundamentals provide a solid backbone to the bull run, suggesting it’s supported by genuine growth in the network rather than just speculative froth.
牛市有起有落，但比特幣網絡基本面就一直穩步向上，2025年屢創新高——足證網絡健康度同長遠潛力都十分強勁。今次周期，唔止價格創新高，比特幣嘅算力（Hash Rate）、安全性同使用數據都同樣升至歷史高位。堅實嘅基本面成為牛市有力後盾，顯示唔只係炒作泡沫，而係網絡實質增長支持。
A standout metric is Bitcoin’s hash rate – the total computational power dedicated by miners to securing the blockchain.
其中一個最重要數據係比特幣算力——即係礦工用嚟保障區塊鏈安全嘅總計算能力。
Throughout 2025, the hash rate has soared to unprecedented levels. In September, it peaked around 1.12 billion terahashes per second (TH/s), an all-time high. This surge means more mining machines are online than ever before, making the network more secure against attacks. It also reflects miners’ optimism: they wouldn’t be investing in expensive hardware and electricity if they expected Bitcoin’s value to plummet. In fact, such a large jump in hash power so soon after the halving caught many by surprise – historically, miner participation can dip when rewards are cut. Instead, miners have doubled down, indicating strong confidence in the future of Bitcoin.
整個2025年，算力大幅飆升至歷史新高。9月時，更一度高達每秒1.12百億次加密雜湊（TH/s），創下新紀錄。呢個增幅代表史上最多礦機同時運作，令網絡更加安全，難以受到攻擊。亦反映礦工樂觀，如果唔睇好比特幣未來，佢哋唔會繼續投資昂貴設備同電力。事實上，今次減半咁快出現咁大算力增長，遠超預期——歷史上獎勵減半後，礦工參與度通常會短暫下跌。今次反而愈戰愈勇，更突顯佢哋對比特幣未來信心十足。
This exploding hash rate led to record mining difficulty (the network’s built-in adjustment to keep blocks coming at a steady rate), which also hit an all-time high in 2025.
算力爆升同時推動挖礦難度（系統用來維持出塊速度所作嘅調節）亦錄得新高，2025年再創紀錄。
A high difficulty confirms that competition among miners is fierce – another signal of how much resources are being poured into Bitcoin’s security.
難度提升證明礦工間競爭白熱化——這係反映有幾多資源投放到比特幣安全之上的另一個佐證。
One positive side effect: a highly secure and decentralized network is more attractive to large investors and institutions concerned about robustness. Every uptick in hash rate underscores Bitcoin’s resilience and can bolster investor trust, indirectly aiding the bull run’s longevity.
副作用都幾好：極高安全、去中心化嘅網絡，更容易吸引對穩健性有要求嘅大型投資者和機構。每次算力上升，都強化比特幣韌性，有助建立投資者信心，間接拉長牛市動力。
Analysts and industry experts view the hash rate milestone as a bullish omen for price as well. There’s a history of hash rate surges preceding strong price rallies, possibly because miners tend to expand operations in anticipation of (or in response to) bullish market conditions. “Hash rate surges post-halving have historically preceded price rallies. We may be entering a similar phase now,” observed Varun S., co-founder of a DeFi platform, in September. In his analysis, easing selling pressure from miners (as noted earlier) plus the right macro backdrop could mean “Bitcoin is primed for a decisive upward move” with network fundamentals leading the way.
分析師及業內專家亦認為，算力創高往往係價格看漲信號。歷史上，算力急升通常預示新一波牛市，可能因為礦工會因應（或預期）牛市而擴大投入。去到9月，一間 DeFi 平台聯合創辦人 Varun S. 指出：「減半後算力激增，過往都預示著大升浪。我哋或許正步入類似階段。」佢分析指，正如上文提及，賣壓減少，加上宏觀環境配合，「比特幣已經蓄勢待發，隨時迎來決定性升勢」，而真正引領升浪嘅正係網絡基本面。
Beyond mining, other fundamentals also paint a rosy picture.
除咗挖礦指標之外，其他基本面數據同樣樂觀。
The number of active Bitcoin addresses (a proxy for user engagement) has been trending near record highs, indicating a broad user base transacting on the network daily. Lightning Network usage (Bitcoin’s layer-2 for faster payments) has grown as well, improving Bitcoin’s utility for smaller transactions. Meanwhile, on-chain transaction volumes and the total value settled on Bitcoin have been enormous, at times rivalling major payment networks.
活躍比特幣錢包地址數（反映用戶參與度）接近歷史高位，證明每日都有大量用戶進行交易。閃電網絡（Lightning Network，係比特幣二層網絡，提升交易速度）使用量都明顯增長，令比特幣更適合小額支付。同時，區塊鏈上交易量及結算總價值都非常龐大，有時甚至同大型支付系統睇齊。
All these data points boil down to one thing: Bitcoin’s network is stronger and more widely used than ever.
總而言之，比特幣網絡而家比以往任何時候都更強、更普及。
Market Liquidity and Maturity
市場流動性與成熟度
Another reason this bull run appears poised to endure is the overall maturation of the crypto market and vastly improved liquidity conditions compared to previous cycles. Simply put, Bitcoin’s market is deeper, more efficient, and less fragile than in the past. This maturity has translated into a bull run that, while spectacular, is also somewhat more measured – lacking some of the wild excesses that signaled the end of prior manias.
今次牛市之所以有機會持續，另一主因係加密貨幣市場已經比過往成熟得多，整體流動性亦顯著提升。簡單嚟講，比特幣市場規模更大、效率更高、唔再咁容易受衝擊。成熟度提升令今輪牛市氣勢磅礡之餘，多咗一份理性——以往牛市末段嗰啲極端投機過度，今時今日幾乎見唔到。
The upshot is a rally that could extend longer and handle large inflows or outflows without imploding.
結果就係：今次升浪有望走得更長，即使大額資金進出都可以承受，唔會一觸即潰。
One major change is the entry of professional market-makers and institutional trading firms, which has smoothed out price volatility. Liquidity on exchanges has increased significantly.
一個關鍵轉變係專業做市商同機構交易商大舉進場，大大減低短期波幅。交易所流動性亦比以前高咗唔少。
For instance, in April 2024 around the time of the halving, Bitcoin’s aggregated market depth (a measure of how much could be bought or sold with minimal price impact) jumped from roughly $324 million to $420 million within days.
例如，2024年4月減半附近，比特幣綜合市深（即市場一次過買賣幾多幣對價格影響好細）短短幾日就由約3.24億美元跳升至4.2億美元。
This indicated substantially stronger liquidity, meaning the order books could absorb bigger trades without dramatic swings. By late 2025, global Bitcoin liquidity is near all-time highs, reflecting both the influx of institutional participants and the growth of derivative markets that help manage volatility.
呢個數字代表流動性大增，訂單簿承接咗更大額交易都唔會令價格大幅波動。去到2025年底，比特幣全球流動性已經接近歷史高位，反映機構資金湧入之餘，衍生品市場（有助穩定波幅）都大幅成長。
This improved liquidity reduces the likelihood of flash crashes or sudden squeezes that used to plague crypto. In past cycles, thin liquidity often meant that when sentiment turned, prices could free-fall 50%+ in days as panic met empty order books. Now, with robust market depth and billions in volume trading daily, declines tend to be more orderly. Case in point: the October 2025 flash crash that briefly touched $105K was triggered by a wave of liquidations in altcoin markets, but Bitcoin rebounded swiftly within hours as buyers stepped in.
高流動性令「閃崩」同突發急升少咗好多。以前牛熊周期，流動性不足時，一有恐慌就會跌成五成幾日內，因為訂單簿空空如也。現在市場深度充足、每日成交額以十億計，跌市都會較為有序。例如2025年10月某次閃崩，比特幣跌穿$105K，係因為山寨幣市場觸發連環強平，但比特幣幾個鐘內就有買家進場，回升得好快。
The presence of big, patient capital on the bid side is a new phenomenon that has kept Bitcoin’s uptrend much more intact. Stronger liquidity is crucial to supporting a sustained rise in Bitcoin’s price over the coming months, as blockchain data firm Kaiko noted – it boosts confidence and tamps down extreme volatility.
願意耐心等低位入貨嘅大型資金進場，令比特幣升勢保持得更穩健。正如區塊鏈數據公司 Kaiko 所講，流動性充裕對維持未來幾個月嘅升勢至關重要——可以提升信心，同時壓住極端波動。
The market structure is also more mature. There are now regulated futures, options, and exchange-traded products that allow for hedging and arbitrage, which helps keep prices more stable and aligned across venues.
市場架構都更成熟。現時有受監管嘅期貨、期權及交易所買賣產品，可以對沖或套利，有助價格跨平台保持穩定。
The availability of these instruments means investors can stay in the market with less fear, knowing they have tools to manage risk. It also means fewer forced sellers during downturns, since traders can short or use options to mitigate losses instead of panic-selling holdings.
有咗呢啲金融工具，投資者可以安心繼續留喺市場，因為可以管理風險。即使市況差時，亦唔使太多人被逼割肉，因為落盤做淡、買期權止蝕都方便。
Another sign of maturity: Less leverage and speculative frenzy (so far). While crypto certainly still has leverage, the 2025 bull run has (to date) seen fewer of the retail margin blowouts that characterized 2021. Many of the most excessive speculative actors were flushed out in the 2022 bear market. What’s left is a market with a larger share of long-term and institutional holders, who are more disciplined than the meme-coin day traders of yesteryear.
另一個成熟表現：槓桿同炒作過熱（至少到目前為止）相對較少。雖然加密貨幣依然有槓桿，但今次牛市未見返2021年嗰啲大規模散戶爆倉潮。最瘋狂嗰班投機客早喺2022年熊市被淘汰，遺下而家主要係有紀律嘅長線或機構投資者，較以前 meme-coin 一族規矩好多。
The fact that Bitcoin climbed above $100K with comparatively muted retail hype suggests the rally has been driven by steady accumulation rather than a fast-burning bubble.
比特幣突破$100K，卻未見大肆渲染零售熱潮，反映升浪背後主要係長線穩步吸納，而唔係短期爆升泡沫。
One analysis tracking 30 different bull market top indicators found that 0 out of 30 had been triggered even after Bitcoin’s new highs, implying the kind of euphoric peak conditions hadn’t appeared yet. In a very real sense, the market is behaving more like a “grown-up” asset class now.
有份研究追蹤30個牛市頂部指標，發現即使比特幣創新高時，冇一個指標出現所謂極度亢奮頂部現象。的確，市場而家表現得更多像「成熟資產」了。
All this bodes well for the rally’s longevity. A mature market can sustain higher prices without collapsing under its own weight, as there are always buyers and sellers keeping things in balance. As a result, we may see a more gradual cresting of this bull run rather than a sudden pop. The enhanced liquidity and market infrastructure also make it easier for large new
以上種種，對牛市延續都係好兆頭。成熟市場可以維持更高價格而唔會不勝負荷，因為買賣雙方隨時平衡。咁計，今年牛市有機會緩慢回頂而唔係突然爆破。流動性同市場基建都大幅提升，令大型新資金鍾意入市。Here is the requested translation. As per instructions, markdown links are skipped and the formatting is preserved.
entrants to come in – another reason the rally could continue as fresh capital finds access. Bitcoin’s journey from a fringe asset to a globally traded macro asset is well underway, and the maturity gained in that process is helping prolong and stabilize its bull market.
參與者陸續加入——這亦是牛市或會持續的另一原因，因為資金不斷湧入。比特幣由邊緣資產發展成為全球交易的宏觀資產，其歷程已經進入新階段，而過程中累積的成熟度正在幫助牛市延長並趨於穩定。
Mainstream Corporate and Wall Street Embrace
No longer is Bitcoin the domain of cypherpunks and hobbyist traders alone – it has firmly entered the mainstream of finance and business.
比特幣早已不再只是密碼朋克或業餘炒家的天下——它已經堂而皇之地進入金融及商業主流。
This growing embrace by major companies, financial institutions, and even governments is a strong vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s future. In 2025, we’ve seen Fortune 500 CEOs touting blockchain strategies, blue-chip companies adding crypto offerings, and Wall Street titans publicly aligning with Bitcoin. Such widespread adoption and endorsement provide fundamental support for the bull run, as they broaden the base of investors and uses for Bitcoin.
越來越多大型企業、金融機構甚至政府採納比特幣，為其未來投下了強心針。2025年，不乏《財富》500大企業 CEO 談論區塊鏈策略，一線藍籌公司加入加密產品，華爾街巨頭更公開支持比特幣。這種大規模的採用與認可為牛市提供了堅實的基礎，擴闊了比特幣的投資者層面和應用場景。
One clear indicator is the surge of crypto-related public listings and corporate actions.
其中一個明顯信號，就是與加密貨幣相關的上市公司及企業動作急速增加。
After years of wariness, U.S. crypto companies are now rushing to go public, encouraged by a more welcoming policy climate.
經過多年的觀望後，美國的加密公司如今在更友好的政策氛圍下競相上市。
In mid-2025, the crypto exchange Bullish raised over $1 billion in a U.S. IPO. Circle, the major stablecoin issuer, had a blockbuster stock market debut that doubled its valuation to $18 billion.
2025年中，加密貨幣交易所 Bullish 在美國 IPO 籌集超過十億美元。主要穩定幣發行商 Circle 更以震撼性的市值登場，市值一舉翻倍至 180 億美元。
These high-profile listings underscore how far the industry has come since the dark days of 2022’s bear market. Analysts note that rising mainstream adoption and deep-pocketed backers are “reshaping the sector’s fundraising landscape” and boosting demand for crypto equities. In essence, cryptocurrency businesses themselves are now seen as legitimate and lucrative plays on Wall Street.
這些高調上市突顯，業界自 2022 年熊市低潮以來已大幅進步。分析師指出，主流採納度提高與資金雄厚的背後推動者，正在「重塑這個行業的融資版圖」並推高加密股的需求。簡言之，現時的加密公司業務已被視為華爾街合法且吸引的投資標的。
Traditional tech and finance companies are also diving in. Payment giants like PayPal and Visa have rolled out crypto features (such as enabling Bitcoin buying or settling transactions in stablecoins), seamlessly blending crypto with everyday finance. Multiple banks, from Goldman Sachs to regional banks, launched crypto custody or trading services for their clients in 2024–2025.
傳統科技及金融企業也積極入場。支付巨頭如 PayPal 及 Visa 均推出加密功能（例如支援購買比特幣或以穩定幣結算交易），令加密貨幣和日常金融無縫融合。2024 至 2025 年，從高盛到區域性銀行，紛紛為客戶開設加密資產託管及交易服務。
Mastercard began supporting certain cryptocurrencies on its network, and Tesla – which famously bought $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 – has held onto its stash and hinted it may start accepting crypto payments again in the future. Even fast food and retail brands hopped on minor crypto promotions, reflecting a cultural acceptance that wasn’t there in prior years.
Mastercard 亦已支援部分加密貨幣於其網絡上流通，而 Tesla（2021 年曾大手購入 15 億美元比特幣）則一直持貨不放，更暗示將來或會再接受加密貨幣支付。連快餐和零售品牌也推出過小型加密宣傳，反映這類文化認受性今非昔比。
Perhaps most notably, the attitudes of investing elites have flipped. Not long ago, many famous investors dismissed Bitcoin as worthless or a scam. Now, several of those skeptics have either warmed up or at least conceded crypto is here to stay. Legendary value investor Bill Miller allocated a big chunk of his fund to Bitcoin, and hedge fund mogul Paul Tudor Jones likened owning Bitcoin to owning early tech stocks.
最值得注意的，也許是投資界精英的態度急轉直下。以往不少知名投資者視比特幣一文不值，甚至當騙局。但如今，不少曾經的懷疑派已經軟化，甚至承認加密資產長存無疑。傳奇價值投資者 Bill Miller 大手配置比特幣，對沖基金大亨 Paul Tudor Jones 更形容持有比特幣等同早年持有科網股。
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock (the world’s largest asset manager), who once called Bitcoin an “index of money laundering,” now speaks of it more favorably; under his leadership BlackRock not only launched a Bitcoin trust but also advocated for its clients’ exposure to crypto as a potential “digital asset of the future.”
全球最大資產管理公司 BlackRock 行政總裁 Larry Fink，從前曾標籤比特幣為「洗黑錢指標」，如今則轉趨正面。不僅帶領 BlackRock 推出比特幣信託，更鼓勵客戶涉足加密，視之為「未來的數碼資產」。
When the very institutions that Bitcoin aimed to disrupt begin embracing it, you know the paradigm has shifted.
當比特幣當初想顛覆的這些體制，如今反過來擁抱它，你就知道時代真的變了。
This institutional stamp of approval and integration into corporate America significantly de-risks Bitcoin in the eyes of investors. It’s easier to hold an asset when you see household names and conservative funds holding it too. The involvement of companies also extends Bitcoin’s reach to their customer bases – for example, millions of PayPal and Cash App users have been introduced to Bitcoin through those platforms.
企業及機構的認可，大大降低了比特幣在投資者眼中的風險。當你見到許多家喻戶曉公司和保守資金都在持有這資產，自己「坐貨」亦易安心。而企業的參與，亦令比特幣觸及其龐大用戶群——例如 PayPal 和 Cash App 數百萬用戶正是在這些平台接觸比特幣。
Meanwhile, corporate treasuries dabbling in Bitcoin (following the pioneering example of MicroStrategy, which by 2025 amassed well over 150,000 BTC) add another layer of demand beyond just speculative trading.
與此同時，越來越多企業財資部門著手配置比特幣（以 MicroStrategy 為先驅，截至 2025 年已持有超過 15 萬顆），令需求層面由單純投機再進一步擴闊。
Bullish Analyst Predictions and Investor Sentiment
The mood in the market can often become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Right now, investor sentiment around Bitcoin remains largely bullish, not euphoric. Many respected analysts and institutions are publicly projecting significantly higher prices in the coming years – and such predictions both reflect and reinforce confidence in the bull run.
市場氣氛往往自我實現。現時，比特幣相關投資者情緒大致偏向正面，但未致過度亢奮。許多受認可的分析師與機構公開預期未來幾年價格會大幅上升，這些預測既反映也鞏固了牛市的信心。
When conservative banks start talking about six-figure Bitcoin targets, it lends credibility to the rally and can draw in even more buyers who don’t want to miss the next leg up.
當連一向保守的銀行都開始談及「六位數」比特幣目標時，這為升浪增添公信力，也吸引更多「怕錯過」的投資者入場。
Across the board, price forecasts for Bitcoin in 2025–2026 have been revised upward. A survey of major analysts by CoinGecko highlights that predictions range from roughly $145,000 on the low end to over $1,000,000 on the high end, with a consensus clustering in the $180K–$250K range for 2025.
廣泛而言，2025 至 2026 年間比特幣價格預測持續上調。CoinGecko 訪問多位主流分析師，預測由 14.5 萬美元到逾一百萬美元不等，市場共識主要集中在 2025 年 18 萬至 25 萬美元範圍。
These are figures that would have sounded fantastical a few years ago – now they are discussed as reasonable outlooks by serious firms. For example, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee has been vocal about a $200K+ target, even suggesting Bitcoin could reach about $250,000 in 2025 under bullish conditions. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered, the multinational bank, made headlines by predicting Bitcoin will hit $100,000 and beyond; more recently, they doubled down with an updated call that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
這些數字在數年前還像天方夜譚，如今卻獲嚴肅機構視為合理展望。例如 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的 Tom Lee 一直高調指比特幣目標價逾 20 萬美元，甚至認為在牛市下有機達 25 萬。渣打銀行則曾預測比特幣突破 10 萬美元，最近更進一步提出年底有望到 20 萬美元。
Such lofty targets from a well-known bank would have been unheard of last cycle.
這些出自知名大型銀行的預測，在上個周期簡直難以想像。
These projections are not made in a vacuum – they’re usually tied to concrete catalysts like ETF inflows, halvings, or macro trends (many of which we’ve covered in earlier points). They serve to communicate a narrative that the best may be yet to come. When investors hear that “late 2025 could be the cycle peak” or that “Bitcoin might approach quarter-million dollars,” it can influence their strategy.
這些預測並非紙上談兵，往往有實質催化劑，例如 ETF 資金流入、減半或宏觀走勢（很多於前文已有論述）。這些說法有助於塑造市場所信——即最精彩的部分可能仍在後頭。當投資者聽到「2025 年底或許才是本周期高位」或「比特幣有望挑戰 25 萬美元」，往往會影響其部署。
Rather than rushing to take profits and exit, many are inclined to hold or even add to positions, keeping the upward momentum intact. The psychology shifts from fear of a top to fear of missing out on further gains.
與其急於食糊離場，許多人傾向繼續持有甚至增持，延續升勢。心理由「怕頂」漸變為「怕蝕底」。
We can see this optimistic sentiment also in market data like futures spreads and fund flows. Bitcoin futures on institutions-friendly exchanges have often been in contango (prices for future delivery higher than spot), indicating traders expect higher prices ahead. Capital continues to pour into crypto investment funds; even after short-term price dips, there haven’t been massive outflows, suggesting that investors view dips as buying opportunities rather than end-of-cycle exits.
從市場數據亦可見這種樂觀情緒，如期貨價差和資金流向。面向機構的比特幣期貨多數呈現升水（即遠期價高於現貨），反映交易員預期價格仍有上升空間。資金亦持續流入加密投資基金，即使價格短暫回落，也沒有出現大規模贖回，顯示投資者將調整視為入市良機，而非結束周期的信號。
Even traditionally cautious voices have come around to a cautiously bullish stance.
就連一向審慎的聲音，近年亦逐漸轉向審慎偏牛。
Several Wall Street strategists known for sober analysis have acknowledged that Bitcoin’s upside risks remain compelling.
多位以理性冷靜見稱的華爾街策略師亦承認，比特幣的上行潛力，依然不容忽視。
For instance, research from Citibank and Goldman Sachs in 2025 has mentioned Bitcoin’s potential to keep climbing as part of the broader trend of “digitalization of money,” albeit with volatility. When the establishment starts framing Bitcoin as a legitimate macro asset class (comparing its market cycles to commodities or tech stocks), it anchors expectations that this rally has more room rather than being some aberration due to end.
例如，花旗、金道 2025 年的研究都提到，比特幣因「貨幣數碼化」大趨勢而有望繼續上揚，儘管震盪難免。當傳統機構也把比特幣定義為正式的宏觀資產類別（市場周期比擬商品或科網股），預期這輪升勢還有空間，而非曇花一現。
Another gauge of sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, has mostly stayed in “Greed” territory during 2025 but not spiked to extreme levels for prolonged periods.
另一個衡量情緒的指標——Crypto Fear & Greed Index 在 2025 年大多維持於「貪婪」區間，但未曾長時間飆升至極端。
This implies positive sentiment without the runaway mania that often precedes a sharp reversal. In practice, the bull run has been underpinned by a sense of rational optimism: investors are bullish for identifiable reasons, not just blind exuberance.
這表示市場情緒樂觀，但未見失控的瘋狂狀態（往往是崩盤前兆）。實際上，今輪牛市主要是受理性樂觀推動，投資者看好有理有據，而非盲目亢奮。
Of course, sentiment can change, and overoptimistic forecasts don’t guarantee outcome. But in a bull market, bullish sentiment itself can be fuel – it encourages holding over selling, and entices new participants to join. As long as influential market players keep calling for higher prices and those calls seem justified by real factors, it creates a feedback loop supporting the uptrend. We are witnessing that in 2025. There is a broad feeling that the peak of this cycle is still ahead of us, not behind. Until that collective mindset shifts to irrational giddiness or complacency, the bull run likely has room to run.
當然，情緒隨時可變，過於進取的預測未必兌現。不過，牛市中情緒本身就是動力——樂觀促使大家「坐貨」，亦吸引新入場。只要有影響力的大行唱好，且預測合乎現實因由，這種正循環便會持續推升。2025 年正正見證着這種現象，主流觀感依然是：這周期高位尚未到來。只要集體心態未走火入魔或自滿，牛市還有空間。
Room to Run: No Retail Mania (Yet)
Finally, one of the most intriguing reasons to believe the bull run isn’t over is what hasn’t happened yet: we have not seen the kind of retail investor frenzy that marked the final blow-off phases of previous cycles. Despite Bitcoin pushing into six-figure price territory, the wider public’s engagement – as measured by things like Google search trends, social media buzz, and new user onboarding – has remained surprisingly subdued compared to the peaks of 2017 or 2021. This suggests that the proverbial “mania phase” of the bull market might still lie ahead, providing additional fuel when/if retail FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) truly kicks in.
最後，一個最值得注意的「牛市未完」證據，反而是至今未發生的事：即零售投資者的瘋狂追捧還未出現。即使比特幣已進入六位數行列，大眾參與度（如 Google 搜尋趨勢、社交媒體熱度、新手入場數等）仍遠低於 2017 或 2021 年高峰。這意味著牛市常見的「瘋狂期」或許仍未開始，當零售投資者真正湧現的「FOMO」（怕錯過）現象爆發時，將成進一步動力。
Some data is telling.
有些數據非常說明問題。
When Bitcoin hit a then-record ~$119,000 in July 2025, Google searches for “Bitcoin” were well below their all-time high levels.
當比特幣於 2025 年 7 月創新高（約 11.9 萬美元）時，Google 「Bitcoin」搜尋熱度，遠低於歷史巔峰。
According to Google Trends, search interest was only scoring around 24 out of 100 globally at that time – nowhere near the 100/100 frenzy seen in May 2021’s crypto boom.
據 Google Trends，全球搜尋熱度當時僅為 24/100，與 2021 年 5 月加密大牛市的 100/100 狂熱無得比。
Even with a brief spike in early July as Bitcoin made headlines, the search index only reached 88 before cooling off again.
即使 7 月初比特幣登上新聞導致熱度急升，搜尋指數亦只是短暫到 88，然後又回落。
By mid-July, with Bitcoin above $110K, search interest slid back to moderate levels (around 55 on Google’s scale). In short, mainstreet curiosity has lagged far behind Bitcoin’s price ascent. Many average people either aren’t aware of Bitcoin’s new heights or aren’t chasing it with the same fervor as before.
去到 7 月中，比特幣企穩 11 萬美元以上，但搜尋熱度已回落至中等水平（約 55/100）。總結一句，大眾關注度大大落後於比特幣價格升幅。許多一般市民甚至未留意到比特幣已創新高，也未像過去那樣積極追入。
This is a stark contrast to the end of 2017 or late 2021, when Bitcoin’s every move dominated mainstream news and cocktail party chatter.
這與 2017 年底、2021 年尾的情況形成強烈對比——當時比特幣的每一個動作都是主流新聞焦點及聚會話題。
Back then, crypto mania was evident: Coinbase became
那時候，加密瘋潮十分明顯：Coinbase 已成為the #1 app on the Apple store, everyone from Uber drivers to grandparents were asking how to buy Bitcoin or shill altcoins, and Google searches rocketed off the charts. Those were classic signs of a market top – when the last marginal buyers (the general public) flood in, often right before a crash. In 2025, we simply haven’t reached that point yet. If anything, skepticism among the public lingers from the 2022 crash, and many retail investors remain tentative or underexposed to crypto.
蘋果商店排名第一嘅App，無論係Uber司機定係阿婆阿伯都喺問點買Bitcoin、甚至「推銷」山寨幣，加上Google搜尋量爆升 —— 呢啲都係典型市頂信號，通常代表最後一批買家（即大眾）湧入市場，往往就係股災前夕。但喺2025年，我哋其實仲未到嗰個階段。事實上，好多人對2022年嗰場跌市仲心有餘悸，好多散戶對加密貨幣仲係觀望或者投入唔多。
Market observers have indeed pointed out that the current rally appears to be “institutionally grounded” and less hype-driven, with capital inflows led by professionals rather than a viral retail surge. Paradoxically, this more muted public enthusiasm may be a bullish indicator: it implies there’s a large pool of potential buyers still on the sidelines. Should Bitcoin continue rising or even just stabilize at a high plateau, it could eventually draw in a second wave of retail participation (as the fear of missing out mounts).
市場觀察者都指出，今次升浪明顯係「由機構主導」，炒作成份細咗，資金流入主要嚟自專業投資者，而唔係突然間出現嘅散戶熱潮。最諷刺嘅係，呢種大眾反應淡定，反而係利好信號：即係話，仲有大把潛在買家喺場外等緊。如果Bitcoin繼續升，或者就算係高位企穩，一旦有FOMO（錯過恐懼感）出現，都有機會吸引新一波散戶參與。
That influx could propel an “overshoot” in prices, characteristic of late-cycle melt-ups – but that would also mark the true peak. The key point is, we don’t appear to be there yet. 呢股人潮可以推動價格「超買」現象，係周期末段爆升嘅特徵，但同時都會見頂。重點係，依家睇嚟仲未到嗰個時刻。
One anecdotal metric: crypto exchange sign-ups and activity among first-time users have grown, but not explosively. Major exchanges report steady new account growth in 2025, but nothing like the overwhelm of verification backlogs witnessed in past frenzies. Social media mentions of Bitcoin, while rising, haven’t hit the fever pitch of previous tops. Even meme-coin mania, a hallmark of retail speculation, has been relatively constrained this cycle compared to the Dogecoin/Shiba Inu crazes of 2021. All this indicates that retail euphoria remains on a low boil.
用一個生活指標嚟睇，加密貨幣交易所新用戶註冊與活動雖然增加，但唔算爆升。主流交易所2025年新戶口持續增長，但完全未去到過往驗證大塞車嘅瘋狂程度。社交媒體講Bitcoin嘅聲量雖然上升，卻遠未到過去牛市沸點。至於meme-coin（迷因幣）熱潮，較起2021年嘅狗狗幣、柴犬幣狂熱，今次相對收斂。呢啲都反映散戶情緒仲係「細細煲」。
Of course, it’s possible that this cycle will be more institution-heavy and never see a retail spike of the same magnitude. Some experts argue that traditional “altseason” and retail blow-offs may be dampened by the new structure of the market (as we’ll discuss in the next section). However, given human nature, it’s hard to imagine a bull run ending without some broad public excitement.
當然，今次周期好可能都係以機構為主，未必會再出現大規模散戶狂潮。有專家認為，傳統「山寨幣季節」同散戶蜂擁現象，可能因應市場新結構而變得冇咁明顯（下節都會講）。但以人性而言，要牛市「無聲無息」咁結束，實在難以想像。
As one crypto observer quipped: “Where’s the retail frenzy?” – the fact that we’re asking that at $100K+ means the top is likely still ahead. Until headlines of Bitcoin minting millionaires dominate pop culture and everyday folks start trading en masse, the market probably hasn’t hit the kind of exuberant climax that precedes a bear turn.
有位加密貨幣觀察者就話：「散戶瘋潮去咗邊？」——我哋連Bitcoin破$10萬都喺問呢個問題，反映頂位可能仲未嚟。等到「Bitcoin造就新富翁」變成主流新聞、街坊日常都圍埋炒幣，先至有機會真係見頂入熊。
In summary, the relative lack of mania so far is oddly comforting for bulls. It implies that Bitcoin’s price has been driven by more stable hands and could potentially climb much higher once the wider public fully joins the party. If and when that late-stage FOMO wave arrives, it might mark the final leg of the bull run – but until then, Bitcoin’s ascent may continue in a more measured fashion. The “wall of worry” in this cycle (with skeptics and sidelined investors still in plenty) is actually healthy, providing room for the rally to run further before irrational exuberance truly takes hold.
總括而言，依家冇咁亢奮，反而令持倉者放心。即係話，Bitcoin升值主因仍係穩健資金，萬一日後大眾真係大舉入場，仲有機會再升一層。如果真正FOMO浪潮到來，先可能進入牛尾段，但未到嗰時，Bitcoin升勢可能會較為平穩。「牆外觀望」嘅懷疑者同場外資金，其實係健康現象，好過一早發癲，令升幅有空間持續，未至於即刻見頂。
Altcoins and the Prospect of Altseason
What does an extended Bitcoin bull run mean for the rest of the crypto market – the thousands of altcoins that together account for a large share of crypto wealth? Historically, major Bitcoin rallies have often been followed (or accompanied) by periods where alternative cryptocurrencies outperform, a phenomenon known as “altseason.”
Bitcoin牛市拉長，對其他加密貨幣——即係數千款山寨幣、佔一大部分市場價值——又有咩意義？傳統上，每逢Bitcoin出現大升浪，之後往往會有一段時間山寨幣表現更出眾，呢個現象就叫「山寨幣季節（altseason）」。
In past cycles, once Bitcoin hit a certain stride or plateau, investors rotated profits into riskier small-cap coins, leading to explosive altcoin surges. However, in 2025 the script has not fully played out in the usual way, at least not yet. Bitcoin’s dominance (its share of total crypto market value) has remained elevated, and many altcoins have lagged behind the flagship crypto’s gains.
以前每一輪週期，一到Bitcoin升到定一個高位，投資者就會將利潤轉投細價山寨幣，導致山寨幣爆升。但2025年到目前為止，情況未完全重現。Bitcoin嘅主導率（佔全市場總價值比例）依然高企，唔少山寨幣都追唔上主流幣嘅升幅。
This raises the question: Is altseason delayed – or perhaps fundamentally different – this time around? 咁今次係「山寨幣季節」遲咗啫，定係根本格局已經變咗？
So far, Bitcoin’s market dominance has hovered around multi-year highs, roughly 55–60% of total crypto market cap. That is a notable shift from late stages of prior bull markets, where Bitcoin dominance typically fell sharply as capital flooded into “the next big thing” tokens.
目前Bitcoin嘅市佔率長期維持喺近年高位，約55-60%。同以往牛尾階段資金湧入「下一隻大熱Token」而令Bitcoin主導權急跌非常唔同。
For instance, in the 2017 blow-off, Bitcoin’s dominance dropped under 40% as Ethereum and a host of ICO-fueled coins went parabolic. In 2021’s spring frenzy, a similar pattern saw Bitcoin temporarily lose dominance to a frenzy of DeFi, NFT, and meme coins. But in 2025, Bitcoin has so far strengthened its dominance as its price climbed. One analysis attributed this to the impact of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which triggered a significant supply shock and drew in heavy institutional money primarily into Bitcoin itself.
例如2017年瘋牛時，Bitcoin主導率跌穿40%，因為以太坊同大堆ICO幣爆升；2021年春天又見到DeFi、NFT、迷因幣集體爆車，令Bitcoin比重暫時落後。但去到2025，Bitcoin反而愈升愈主導。有分析認為，係因為Bitcoin現貨ETF開通，引發供應衝擊，加上大量機構資金先入Bitcoin而唔係山寨幣。
Forbes reported that these ETFs have “extended Bitcoin’s dominance” in a way not seen before, noting that when BTC’s price is strong and stable, it tends to cause altcoins to sell off rather than rally. In other words, Bitcoin has been sucking the oxygen from the room, as large investors stick with the crypto blue-chip over speculative alternatives.
Forbes就話，ETF出現後，「鞏固咗Bitcoin主導地位」，以前未見過。Bitcoin價強時，山寨幣反而易跌唔易升——簡單講，Bitcoin成「真空吸星」，大戶寧願留守主流幣都唔買炒價高的雜幣。
Another factor is the institutional preference for quality. Many of the big players entering crypto now are less interested in chasing tiny altcoins and more focused on assets with proven longevity (Bitcoin, Ethereum) or on diversified baskets.
另一個原因係機構投資者追求「質素」。依家入場嘅大戶唔太理會細價幣，反而重視經得起考驗嘅資產（例：Bitcoin、Ethereum）或者一籃子指數型產品。
A Bloomberg ETF analyst, James Seyffart, argued that what we’re seeing in 2025 is a form of altseason – but it’s manifesting via investments in crypto-related companies and broad index products rather than wild pumps of individual tokens. 彭博ETF分析師James Seyffart認為2025年其實都叫「山寨幣季節」，只不過變咗重投資相關企業同一籃子指數產品，而唔係單一幣種無厘頭暴升。
He observed that some digital asset companies (so-called “treasury” firms holding crypto on their balance sheets) have outperformed, and that forthcoming ETFs for certain altcoins might not spark the same retail frenzy as past cycles. Essentially, institutionalization may be dampening the traditional boom-bust in smaller coins. With Wall Street in the game, money is flowing into regulated vehicles and larger-cap coins, and less so into random micro-cap projects.
佢觀察到，有啲主力持有加密資產嘅上市公司表現好過坊間山寨幣，而就算未來有山寨幣ETF，都未必會複製散戶蜂擁既過去循環。即係機構資金入場，令細價幣野蠻升跌少咗。依家華爾街玩緊的，係合規產品或者大幣，不大機會買微市值雜幣。
That said, it may be premature to write off altseason entirely.
但咁講未至於話「山寨幣季節」完全玩完。
There are signs that if Bitcoin continues to rise or even stabilizes at a high level, investor attention could pivot to other parts of the crypto universe in search of higher returns. Typically, after Bitcoin has a big run and begins to consolidate, altcoins take center stage as traders rotate into “the next opportunities.”
都有跡象顯示，只要Bitcoin繼續升或高位橫行，資金遲早都會轉向搵更高回報。一般嚟講，Bitcoin升完開始橫行整固，山寨幣就成為主角，炒家自然會搵「下個機會」。
We’ve started to see glimpses of that: for example, when Bitcoin stalled around the $110K–$120K range, some major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP experienced upticks on speculation of their own catalysts (ETH finally got its ETF approvals, Solana saw ecosystem growth, etc.). Market analysts are “keenly observing a potential shift towards high-growth altcoins” now that Bitcoin profits have accrued, with contenders like Avalanche, Solana, and others being highlighted for their strong fundamentals and upside potential.
其實已經陸續見到啲影子。例如：Bitcoin喺$11萬-$12萬暫緩時，有啲主流山寨幣（如Ethereum、Solana、XRP）都因為自己的利好消息而升（例如：ETH終於獲批ETF、Solana生態系增長等）。分析師就話：「而家大家好密切留意增長潛力高的山寨幣」，例如Avalanche、Solana等，憑基本面同升幅潛力被捧為焦點。
Industry veterans advise that altcoin rallies in this cycle may be more selective and fundamentally driven.
有行內人預計，今輪山寨幣升勢會更集中於有基本面、質素較好嘅項目。
David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, opined that we likely won’t see a “dramatic altcoin season like 2021” with Bitcoin dominance collapsing below 40% in the near future. However, he does expect that as BTC continues to rise, altcoins will also rise significantly in value – just perhaps not to the same outsized degree across the board. In his view, for altcoins to truly break out against Bitcoin again, we’d need to see substantial real adoption and revenue growth in those projects (which could take a few years). That suggests the era of random tokens mooned solely by hype might be fading; instead, the market might reward projects with tangible traction (like leading smart contract platforms, interoperability protocols, etc.).
Wave Digital Assets行政總裁David Siemer就話，近年應該好難再見到2021年嗰種「戲劇性山寨幣季」，即係Bitcoin主導權跌穿40%咁誇張。但佢都相信BTC升時，山寨幣整體都會受惠，只係未必全部都暴升。佢認為，要山寨幣真係再次超越Bitcoin，始終要靠項目實際應用或收入增長（可能要幾年時間）。呢種局面意味隨便一個幣靠炒作暴升的年代開始結束，市場將獎勵有實際成果嘅項目，例如智能合約平台、跨鏈協議等。
Another change is the advent of altcoin-focused ETFs and investment products, which could divert some would-be direct altcoin buyers into more structured investments.
另一項新變化係以山寨幣為主題的ETF或投資產品陸續出現，有機會吸引本來想直接買幣嘅資金，流向較有結構的投資方式。
For instance, if an ETF holding a basket of top 10 altcoins launches (and a couple such products have been filed for approval), some investors might choose that route instead of picking individual winners – a behavior pattern more analogous to stock markets. This could moderate the once-violent boom-bust of smaller coins, but also means capital will still flow into the altcoin space, just in a more measured way.
例如，如果有持有十大山寨幣的ETF面世（已經有產品申請批准），有啲散戶可能會選擇買ETF，而唔係逐隻揀，走向有啲似投資股票。咁就有機會減弱過往細價幣暴升暴跌，但資金依然會湧入山寨幣界，只係流度慢咗啲。
In practical terms, a prolonged Bitcoin bull run sets a positive backdrop for altcoins, but it doesn’t guarantee an old-school altseason. 實務上，Bitcoin長牛為山寨幣提供正面氣氛，但未必保證舊式齊升「山寨幣季節」必出現。
We may instead see a series of mini-cycles or sector rotations: e.g., one month decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens rally on some news, another month gaming or layer-2 tokens have their moment – all while Bitcoin hums along strongly in the background. The days of nearly every altcoin doubling in a week (as happened at peak mania previously) may not repeat so uniformly.
未來更大機會係見到一浪接一浪、不同行業輪流跑出：例如某個月因消息刺激DeFi幣升，下個月到GameFi/Layer2圈子爆。Bitcoin就繼續強勢做「大背景音」。至於以前幾十幣一齊一星期升一倍嗰種瘋狂，未必會有咁誇張咁普遍。
However, if Bitcoin truly soars to levels like $200K, it’s hard to imagine no frenzy at all in altcoins – retail traders historically love chasing lower-priced coins for the allure of higher percentage gains.
但如果Bitcoin真係衝到二十萬美金，冇山寨幣癲升係難以想像——散戶一向鍾意追細價幣搏爆升。
So a scenario could unfold where, once Bitcoin’s climb begins to slow, a late-stage altcoin blowout finally occurs – perhaps in 2026 if the cycle extends. That could be the final chapter of the bull run, where exuberance spills over into everything from large-cap alts to obscure microcaps (likely followed by a correction).
所以不排除會出現咁嘅劇本：Bitcoin升勢一減速，就到牛尾階段山寨幣爆發——如果牛市拉長，可能到2026年先見到。到時興奮情緒會從主流山寨幣擴散到各類極細規模token（之後多數跟著係回調）。
In summary, an extended Bitcoin bull run gives altcoins more runway to eventually rally, but the dynamics are different this time. Bitcoin’s dominance, institutional focus, and regulatory framework have all altered how and when altseason might unfold. It may be delayed, more muted, and focused on higher-quality projects. Yet many believe it will come in some form – markets move in cycles of attention. For now, Bitcoin is the undisputed leader of this bull market. But if and when
總結：Bitcoin牛市拖長咗，山寨幣確實有多啲彈藥可以爆，但今次週期運作方式已經唔同。Bitcoin主導率高、機構玩主導、監管環境轉變，都可能令「山寨幣季」遲啲、淡啲、質素向上。雖然形式未必一樣，但相信依然會出現，因為市場始終有人炒新焦點。就目前嚟講，今輪牛市一哥仍然係Bitcoin，但將來……the king of crypto takes a breather, don’t be surprised if some of its court – the best of the altcoins – seize the moment to shine, albeit under new rules of engagement.
Conclusion
比特幣於2025年的牛市可說是創下歷史新高，不但將這種原創加密貨幣推進至六位數的價位，更令其市值突破萬億大關。今次升浪與以往某些時期不同，在於它背後有紮實的基本因素及廣泛支持作為後盾。
如我們前文所述，有太多理由相信這輪牛市尚未結束：機構投資者持續投入、宏觀經濟環境愈發有利、供應長期受限、網絡運作健康達高峰，監管部門和普羅大眾亦未有設下障礙——事實上，他們愈來愈願意參與其中。在多方面，比特幣現時正身處其十五年以來最有利的位置：獲華爾街尊重，政策制定者給予空間，全球用戶持續增長，同時因稀缺與創新仍能吸引市場的資本與幻想。
當然，沒有牛市會永恆持續。審慎的投資者都明白，拋物線式上升後往往會迎來急劇調整，而今日的興奮亦可能孕育明日的自滿。風險依然存在——無論是突如其來的宏觀環境變化、監管打擊，還是未知事故考驗整個加密生態系統的抗逆力。
在加密世界，波動性是入場的代價；即使牛市持續進行，急跌回調亦難以避免（正如十月閃電暴跌所提醒我們）。同時，若零售市場FOMO真正爆發，市場可能會過於膨脹，繼而迎來高位回落。
然而，只要敘事未有劇變，現時的證據仍然偏向利好。比特幣的採納率持續上升，與傳統金融系統的融合降低了突然崩潰的風險。許多分析師如今亦談及潛在的「超級週期」或延長週期──即高低起伏趨於平穩，使加密市場迎來更長期、可持續的成長軌跡。
如果2025年帶來了任何啟示，就是比特幣正在愈來愈像一種成熟的宏觀資產運作——既會受流動性和需求驅使，也同時得到基礎建設和市場接受程度實質支撐。