2025年逆境中依然穩健的加密資產：是甚麼讓ETH、LDO和LINK脫穎而出

2025年10月10日，加密市場遭遇閃電暴跌。在數小時內，超過190億美元杠桿頭寸被清算，市場恐慌賣壓擊穿薄弱的掛單簿。比特幣當天盤中暴跌14%（自10月6日創下的歷史新高126,000美元以上，跌至約107,000美元）；以太幣自高位跌超25%，許多山寨幣更慘，有些在數分鐘內失去一半以上市值，隨後才部分回升。

但不是所有加密資產都同樣受創。只有少數幣種成為「減震器」，跌幅明顯較小或能快速回升。找出這些韌性資產，有助窺探其背後保護因素——以及這些優勢能否延續。根據2025年10月22日12:00 UTC數據，本報告排名自10月10日崩盤以來表現最佳的十大加密資產（排除穩定幣），並分析它們何以能扛過衝擊。

韌性最強的資產類別涵蓋「藍籌」比特幣至小眾隱私幣。其共通點包括強勁的有機需求、有限的杠桿，以及有利的代幣經濟學。例如，Tron（TRX）在恐慌高峰時僅下跌約11%，得益於長線持有者的堅持。

隱私幣Monero（XMR）近30日反而上漲約6%，顯示其去相關化的應用吸引了更穩定的持有者。Zcash（ZEC）最初暴跌近45%，但24小時內完全回升，甚至刷新新高，因地緣監控憂慮引起資金湧入隱私幣。這些「減震器」資產通常較少受投機氾濫影響、流動性深，或有忠實持有者，有些更因正面催化劑（如ETF上市、協議收益）而於大市低迷時逆流而上。

下文詳細分析每個韌性資產的基本、利好與利空情境。儘管它們在10月表現出色，仍面對自身風險－－如即將解鎖、監管變化。我們亦提醒早期預警指標（如資金費率反轉、鏈上流出）或能預示韌性變化。在市場仍於調整後震盪之際，理清這些資產穩健的原因，有助投資者、項目方、分析師把握2025年第四季機遇。

我們如何衡量「韌性」

我們將崩盤期定義為2025年10月10日(00:00 UTC)至10月22日，範圍涵蓋初期衝擊及近兩周市場走向。分析自10月10日開盤價（或加權均價）開始，計算每項資產自該時點至其區間低點最大跌幅，以及迄今（10月22日）回升狀況。

考慮的資產來自當月市值前50名，包括Layer-1、Layer-2網絡、DeFi藍籌、基建幣與主要應用幣；剔除價格固定的穩定幣及流動性極低的小市值幣。為確保充足流動和交易活躍度，要求期間內市值至少5億美元、日現貨成交額至少1,000萬美元，並在兩間或以上主流交易所掛牌，避免單一交易所流動性異常而誤判韌性。

排名以10月10日開市至各資產區間低點的跌幅百分比排序。跌幅愈小，韌性排名愈高。同時計算從10日收市至22日的回報率。例如，某資產10月10日收報$100，最低落至$70，則最大回撤為–30%；若現價回到$90，則僅較10月10日低–10%。

次要指標方面，為了解某些幣種抗跌原因，我們參考：

•　相對比特幣及市場整體表現：檢視每個資產的BTC貝塔值（即跌幅是否小於BTC），其BTC兌盤是否走強。例如Tron的TRX/BTC對於10月11日逆市走強，反映相對韌性。

•　波幅與夏普比率：關注30日實現波幅，低波幅幣種是否更穩。許多韌性代幣於崩盤期間波幅驚人地低（如Tron於14日後已恢復平穩）。相關處以風險調整回報質性討論。

•　流動性及交易流：利用委託冊深度及成交量評估流動性是否緩衝價格波動；亦參考衍生品倉位－如永續合約資金費率、未平倉合約變化，觀察空頭是否大量進場或被爆倉。空頭過重會加劇跌勢，倉位均衡則減緩沖擊。

•　鏈上活動：涵蓋交易所凈流量、大戶動向、活躍地址、質押參與等指標。鏈上基本面強及社群黏著度高（如高質押率、長線持有者未急於轉入交易所）的代幣回撤一般較少。例如Tron鏈上資料顯示老持有者並未於暴跌時大量拋售。

•　代幣經濟學與供應動態：審視已流通供應、解鎖期、任何庫存或回購計劃等支持價格的因素。多個韌性資產受惠於供應緊縮，如Maker持續銷毀MKR與DAI高儲蓄率減輕拋壓；交易所幣（如BNB定期銷毀，Bitfinex的LEO有庫存回購方案）可構建價格底部。

•　敘事及催化劑因素：亦留意各資產獨特的利好消息，如網絡升級、企業合作、監管明朗，或純屬機遇。如XRP於10月中獲ETF重大申請及機構資金流入，吸引抄底；Zcash則因地緣監控議題帶動隱私幣熱潮。這些因素令某些幣種即使全市恐慌，仍獲基本買盤支持。

價格和成交量數據主要以CoinGecko和CoinMarketCap匯總源交叉驗證；最大回撤和回報以10–11日的OHLC日線及盤中圖為準。鏈上資訊及衍生品數據來自Glassnode、CryptoQuant、Kaiko（如交易所流量、資金費率），新聞催化劑則來自Reuters、CoinDesk、Bloomberg和項目官方公告等可靠來源（均附鏈結）。

本文重點研究現貨市場表現，但亦輔以衍生品大致背景，惟部分場外活動或未被納入。部分規模細小但排名靠前的交易所幣需特別留意——若僅在單一平台成交，「韌性」或反映隔離而非市場所見。因此我們要求多所掛牌，但如LEO（Bitfinex代幣）波幅甚低，亦與其受控銷毀且只在該平台交易有關。

幸存者偏誤亦需注意——我們自然傾向聚焦於表現較佳者，未有提及的重挫資產或有啓示。所有數據僅供參考，不同來源或有微小差異，我們盡量引用官方或主流內參數據。最後，儘管發現諸如高質押率與韌性有相關，但強調相關不等同因果，每個資產仍各有故事脈絡。

2025年10月10日以來的市場背景

進入排行榜之前，必須了解2025年10月中混亂背景。這次閃崩非因加密產業內部失誤，而是宏觀及政策突襲下的過度杠桿市場遇冷。10月10日（週五）深夜，美國總統特朗普宣布對中國進口商品徵收100%關稅，並對「關鍵軟件」加新出口管制。這突如其來的中美貿易戰升溫，令環球風險資產集體下挫。

傳統市場已收市（10月10日為美股收盤後），不少投資者趁勢拋售加密資產避險，轉往美債、黃金。美國標指及納指遭遇2025年春天以來最慘日，但加密市場跌幅遠甚，顯示高杠桿之下，對宏觀衝擊極為敏感。

史上最大一日清算：關稅消息一出，極高杠桿的加密倉位集中爆倉，僅24小時內清算逾190至200億美元衍生品持倉，刷新行業紀錄。對比之下，這一規模是2025年2月小閃崩的9倍，甚至是2020年3月「黑色星期四」或2022年FTX崩潰時19倍。

惡性循環由流動性缺失引發：價格暴跌時，流動性提供者紛紛撤單，部分交易所甚至觸及暫停斷路閥。有做市商披露，部份平台自動減倉，反而在最差時刻被迫拋售，形成流動性下滑—價格進一步下挫—流動性再萎的惡性循環。

價格慘烈：比特幣（BTC）10月6日才刷新歷史高點126,000美元以上，卻於10至11日低見104,800美元左右，盤中跌幅約14–15%，與主流山寨幣相比已算較溫和。以太幣（ETH）自4,800美元附近跌至約3,436–3,500美元，距新高回落約25%，當天僅計跌幅約12%。全加密市值一度縮水約5,000億美元，僅數小時內總市值暴跌超過11%。

最嚴重的重災區在「高風險」板塊—— extreme. Highly speculative and illiquid altcoins saw flash crashes reminiscent of past eras’ worst moments. For example: Dogecoin (DOGE) — a memecoin bellwether — plunged over 50% at one point (from ~$0.22 to ~$0.11) before stabilizing around $0.19. Avalanche (AVAX) at one stage was down 70% from its recent levels, and reports surfaced of Toncoin (TON) briefly trading ~80% lower on some venues during the peak frenzy (a wick from near $2 to ~$0.50). Even relatively established large-caps weren’t spared: Solana (SOL) saw an intraday collapse of over 40% according to some accounts, and Stellar (XLM) flash-crashed ~60% to around $0.16 before bouncing. In short, Oct. 10 was a true stress test, separating assets by how they behaved when bid liquidity vanished.

極端。高投機性和缺乏流動性的山寨幣出現閃崩，令人聯想到過去最黑暗時刻的場面。例如：狗狗幣（DOGE）——作為迷因幣的指標——一度暴跌逾50%（由約$0.22跌至約$0.11），之後才回穩至約$0.19。Avalanche（AVAX）一度較近期水平下跌70%，而Toncoin（TON）在狂熱高峰期間據報在部分交易場所有短暫插水~80%（由接近$2跌至約$0.50）。即使是相對成熟的大型加密資產亦不能倖免：Solana（SOL）據部分說法在日內暴跌超過40%，而Stellar（XLM）閃崩約60%至$0.16左右才反彈。總括而言，10月10日是一次真正的壓力測試，把資產按在流動性消失時的表現分門別類。

Why Bitcoin bounced (a bit): By the next day (Oct. 11), Bitcoin and a few majors mounted a partial recovery, thanks in part to reassuring news. Over that weekend, President Trump softened his stance, suggesting “it will all be fine” and indicating the U.S. didn’t actually want to harm China. China, for its part, did not announce any new countermeasures immediately. This cooling of rhetoric helped global sentiment.

比特幣為何有反彈（部分原因）：到翌日（10月11日），比特幣及部分主流幣錄得一定程度反彈，部分原因是有利好消息。當週末，特朗普總統態度有所緩和，表示“一切都會沒事”的態度，並暗示美國其實無意損害中國。中國方面亦暫時未有公布任何新對策。這種言論降溫，有助全球市場氣氛回暖。

Additionally, crypto-specific factors helped Bitcoin rebound faster than most: on-chain analysts noted BTC investor flows remained strong despite the chaos. In fact, prominent analyst Willy Woo pointed out that Bitcoin’s network flows (coins moving to long-term investors, continued hodling) “held up well” and likely enabled BTC to fare better than expected given the stock market plunge. There’s evidence that capital rotated from altcoins into Bitcoin during and after the crash, rather than leaving crypto entirely. This rotation is typical in a flight to quality: when volatility strikes, many traders flee smaller alts for the relative safety of BTC (and to a lesser extent ETH) – which can cushion Bitcoin’s downside.

此外，行業內部因素亦令比特幣反彈速度快於大多數加密貨幣：鏈上分析指雖然市場大亂，BTC投資者資金流仍然強勁。知名分析師Willy Woo更指出，比特幣網絡的資金流（如轉移到長線投資者、持續持幣）「表現穩定」，這亦可能令BTC在股市暴跌中，表現較預期出色。有證據顯示，閃崩期間及之後，資金從山寨幣回流比特幣，而不是全面撤出加密市場。這類板塊輪動屬於避險尋求質素標的的常規操作：波動來襲時，很多交易者會離開小型山寨幣，轉投BTC（及次一級的ETH）的相對安全，這亦可減輕比特幣下行壓力。

Derivatives reset and stablecoin flows: The crash also caused a significant leverage reset across the market. Perpetual futures funding rates went deeply negative for BTC and ETH as panic shorting and hedging spiked on Oct. 10–13. Options markets saw a rush for protective puts – for instance, traders snapped up BTC puts with $95K strikes expiring end-of-month, and ETH puts at $3,600 strikes. Implied volatility spiked to multi-month highs across expiries. By flushing out this leverage, the market arguably set a cleaner slate for recovery; as one analyst put it, “the good news is this crash cleaned out excessive leverage and reset risk in the system, for now”.

衍生產品重設與穩定幣資金流：今次閃崩亦觸發全市場槓桿水平大幅重置。於10月10至13日，比特幣及以太幣的永續合約資金費率出現大幅負值，反映恐慌性做空及對沖活動激增。期權市場則見到保護性賣權需求飆升——例如有交易員大量買入月底到期，執行價$95,000的BTC賣權，和$3,600的ETH賣權。隱含波動率全線飆至數月新高。透過去除過剩槓桿，市場可以說是得到較“乾淨的底子”以便復甦；正如一位分析師所說，“好消息是這次閃崩清除了過多槓桿，暫時重設了系統風險。”

Another notable flow: Stablecoins briefly wobbled but then proved their utility. Immediately during the sell-off, some traders even fled into certain fiat-backed stablecoins (essentially treating USDC/USDT as safe havens). There was a momentary depeg scare with a lesser-known yield-bearing stablecoin (USDe) as liquidity got tight, but major stablecoins like USDT and USDC held their pegs through the storm. In the aftermath, stablecoin supply flows give a macro clue: Tether’s USDT dominance inched up as risk capital rotated out of alts into cash equivalents, and overall stablecoin trading volumes hit year-to-date highs as traders reallocated. Stablecoins have also been cited as a medium-term stabilizer: Galaxy Digital’s research head noted that the growing role of stablecoins as payment rails and liquidity anchors helps support the ecosystem even when prices swing.

另一個值得留意的資金流向：穩定幣短暫出現波動，但最終證明其效用。在拋售初期，有部份交易者立即轉向某些法幣支持的穩定幣（等同將USDC/USDT視為避險港）。一度有一款較冷門的孳息型穩定幣（USDe）因流動性收緊而出現短暫脫鈎，但主要穩定幣如USDT及USDC在風暴中仍穩守錨價。事後，穩定幣供應流動給出宏觀啟示：Tether的USDT市佔率微升，反映風險資本從山寨幣轉向現金等值資產，整體穩定幣交易量更創年內新高，反映資金重新配置。穩定幣亦被視為中期穩定器：Galaxy Digital研究主管指出，穩定幣日益作為支付及流動性樞紐，有助在價格大幅波動時仍支撐生態系統。

Regulatory and policy rumblings: It didn’t help sentiment that this crash occurred amid a U.S. government shutdown (led by the Trump administration) that effectively paused the SEC and CFTC. That sparked concerns about reduced oversight during a market crisis. Rep. Maxine Waters highlighted that with regulators furloughed, potential market manipulation or insider trading around the tariff news might go unchecked. (There were indeed suspicious on-chain signs, such as an address that bet $150M against BTC right before the crash and profited massively).

監管與政策風聲：今次閃崩發生時，美國正處於政府停擺（由特朗普政府主導），導致SEC及CFTC實質上“停擺”。這加劇了市場危機時憂慮監管不足。國會議員Maxine Waters特別提到，監管機關無人值守之際，相關關稅消息出現市場操控或內幕交易的風險亦難以受控。（事實上鏈上確有可疑徵兆，如某地址在閃崩前大手做空BTC達$1.5億，並暴賺。）

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, EU and Asian regulators were quiet on crypto during this period, but the general risk-off tone globally meant less appetite for speculative assets. One brighter spot: amid the wreckage, the narrative of upcoming Bitcoin ETFs and tokenization of real-world assets regained traction in late October, which may have helped put a floor under Bitcoin and certain “quality” altcoins. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, for example, saw a brief streak of inflows resume after the crash as dip-buyers emerged. Overall, the policy backdrop remains a double-edged sword: the crash underscored crypto’s vulnerability to macro shocks, but it also intensified calls for risk management and clearer regulation to integrate crypto into traditional finance more safely.

另一方面，歐盟及亞洲監管機構於此期間對加密貨幣相當低調，但全球普遍的避險氣氛，令投機資產需求進一步降溫。不過亂局之中亦有亮點：比特幣ETF即將推出、實體資產代幣化等敘事於10月底再度升溫，或成為比特幣及部分「質素」山寨幣的「托底」力量。例如BlackRock的iShares Bitcoin Trust在閃崩之後亦一度重現資金流入，反映抄底者進場。整體而言，政策大環境仍是雙刃劍：這次閃崩再度印證加密資產對宏觀衝擊的脆弱，但同時令市場對風險管理及清晰監管的呼聲更高，希望加密資產能更安全地承接傳統金融。

In sum, the Oct. 10 event was a perfect storm of macro panic meeting structural crypto fragility (high leverage + low liquidity). Yet, in the wreckage, some assets demonstrated notable resilience. Let’s turn to the leaderboard of those top survivors and dissect why they weathered the storm.

總結，10月10日的事件正是宏觀恐慌與加密結構性脆弱（高槓桿+低流動性）完美疊加的風暴。不過亂世之中，仍有部份資產表現出強勁的抗跌力。以下我們就看看哪些加密資產 “跌得最少”，並分析它們為何挺過風暴。

The Leaderboard: Top 10 Crypto Assets That Fell the Least

略過翻譯

1. Tron (TRX): Staking Stronghold in a Storm

略過翻譯

What it is: Tron is a Layer-1 blockchain platform focused on high-throughput transaction processing, often used for stablecoin transfers and DeFi applications. Its native token TRX powers transactions and staking on the network. Tron has a delegated proof-of-stake system with a high staking participation (over 50% of circulating TRX is locked in staking). It’s known for its fast, low-fee transactions and is the primary chain for issuing Tether (USDT) stablecoins outside Ethereum, which gives TRX consistent demand for transaction fees.

簡介：Tron（波場）是一個專注於高吞吐量交易處理的第一層區塊鏈平台，經常用於穩定幣轉帳及DeFi應用。其原生代幣TRX用作網絡交易及質押。Tron採用權益委託證明（DPoS）共識機制，質押參與度高（逾50%流通TRX已被鎖倉質押）。以交易速度快、手續費低見稱，同時是以太坊以外主要發行Tether（USDT）穩定幣的區塊鏈，賦予TRX穩定的交易費需求。

Crash performance: Tron was the single best-performing major asset during the Oct. 10 crash. It dropped only about 10–11% at its worst point, briefly wicking to around $0.30, and largely held the $0.30 level throughout the panic. By comparison, most peers were down 20–40% in that window. Remarkably, Tron’s TRX/BTC trading pair strengthened as the crash unfolded: on Oct. 11, TRX/BTC was up ~2.1%, meaning Tron gained value relative to Bitcoin while nearly all other altcoins lost ground against BTC. This rare outperformance signaled that Tron was a safe harbor for some investors amid the turmoil. As of Oct. 22, TRX trades around $0.33, actually above its pre-crash price of ~$0.32, translating to only a mid-single-digit percentage net change since Oct. 10.

閃崩表現：Tron在10月10日閃崩期間成為主要資產之中表現最好的。其跌幅最大時只有約10-11%，短暫下插至$0.30，但整體看大部份時間都守住$0.30關口。相比同期大部份主要幣種都跌了20–40%。值得一提是，Tron的TRX/BTC交易對在閃崩期間反而走強：10月11日TRX/BTC升約2.1%，即是Tron相對比特幣升值，這期間多數其他山寨幣兌BTC都是下跌。這個罕見相對強勢，反映Tron成為部份投資者亂市下的“避風港”。截至10月22日，TRX約$0.33，甚至高於閃崩前的$0.32，即盤後僅錄得個位數百分比漲幅。

Why it held up:

• High Staking & Low Sell Pressure: Over half of TRX supply is staked in Tron’s consensus (earning rewards), which means a relatively smaller liquid float was available for panicked selling. During the crash, on-chain data showed no mass exodus by long-term TRX holders – the Coin Days Destroyed metric stayed low. In other words, the wallets that have held TRX for a long time did not suddenly rush to exchanges en masse. This implies most selling was from short-term traders, while the committed community “hodled” through the volatility, cushioning the price.

• 高質押及低賣壓：超過一半TRX供應都在Tron共識內質押賺取獎勵，換言之有流通可賣的貨量相對較少。閃崩期間，鏈上數據顯示長線持有者沒有集體出走——Coin Days Destroyed指標仍低。即是說，長時間持有TRX的錢包並無突然集體衝去交易所套現。換句話說，主要賣方是短炒投機者，而死忠持有者在波動中選擇「HODL」，有效托住價格。

• Limited Leverage Exposure: TRX is less commonly used in high-leverage trading compared to coins like ETH or XRP. Fewer TRX futures and margin positions meant fewer forced liquidations driving it down. An analysis noted that tokens not heavily listed on major derivative exchanges didn’t crash as hard. Tron, while listed on major exchanges, doesn’t have the same speculative fervor around it in Western markets, which ironically helped – there weren’t many shorts to trigger or over-levered longs to liquidate. Its trading volume is also spread across many Asian exchanges and DEXs, potentially avoiding a single point of failure.

• 槓桿風險較低：與ETH或XRP等幣相比，TRX作高槓桿交易不常見。TRX期貨及孖展倉位較少，即被強平推低的可能大減。有分析指出，未被主流衍生品交易所大規模上架的幣種跌幅往往較細。Tron雖登陸多間主流交易所，但在歐美市場投機熱度一般，諷刺地反令其安全——沒那麼多被強平的多單或空單。加上其交易量分布於多間亞洲交易所和去中心化交易所，能避免單一市場失事致命。

• Stablecoin Demand on Tron: Tron is the backbone for a huge amount of USDT (Tether) stablecoin transactions (Tron’s low fees make it popular for moving USDT). During the panic, as people sold crypto, many moved into USDT – and a lot of that USDT rode on Tron’s network. This means Tron’s network continued to see usage (and TRX fees) even as prices fell. Additionally, market makers transacting USDT may keep TRX on hand to pay fees, creating a natural baseline demand. Tron’s founder Justin Sun claimed that “Tron is the Ark during the flood” – promotional, but partially evidenced by USDT-Tron transfers remaining smooth through the chaos.

• 穩定幣需求強勁：Tron網絡承載巨量USDT（Tether）交易（其低費用令USDT跨鏈遷移很熱門）。當市場恐慌時，很多人賣加密貨幣後轉去USDT，而大量USDT都是在Tron網絡流通。換言之，即使幣價下跌，Tron網絡交易（即TRX手續費）仍有需求。此外，市場莊家結算USDT時會持有些TRX來交手續費，自然維持基本買盤。Tron創辦人孫宇晨誇口說“Tron就是洪水中的方舟”——宣傳成份濃厚，但此次USDT-Tron轉帳全程暢順，確有事實支撐。

• No Major Deleveraging on Tron DApps: Tron’s DeFi ecosystem (e.g. lending platform JustLend) is relatively small compared to Ethereum’s, and it didn’t suffer a cascade of liquidations. This contrasts with some other chains where DeFi positions got liquidated and added sell pressure. Tron’s on-chain lending markets had conservative parameters, and we didn’t hear of any protocol failures on Tron during the crash. No news was good news – Tron didn’t become a headline for the wrong reasons.

• 去槓桿連鎖效應有限：Tron的DeFi生態（如借貸平台JustLend）規模較以太坊為細，無出現連環清算潮。這與其他鏈上不少DeFi高槓桿池被清算、加劇沽壓截然不同。Tron鏈上借貸市場屬保守參數，翻查期間無聽聞Tron協議出現危機，更無負面新聞。沒有新聞就是好新聞——Tron今次未捲入任何負面頭條。

Risks and forward-looking: Tron’s resilience in this crash highlights its strength as a utility-driven chain with loyal holders. However, there are risks. Centralization and governance remain concerns; a handful of “Super Representatives” control validation, and Tron’s reputation is closely tied to Justin Sun’s stewardship, which carries execution and regulatory risks. If sentiment in Asia (Tron’s primary user base) shifts or if a competing network outcompetes Tron for Tether transfers, TRX could lose a key demand driver. Additionally, Tron’s stablecoin ecosystem includes an algorithmic stablecoin (USDD) which had a minor depeg in 2022 – any instability there could hurt trust.

風險與前瞻：Tron今次閃崩下的表現，確實反映其作為應用主導區塊鏈，有較高持幣者忠誠度。惟風險依然存在。中心化和治理問題仍備受關注，少數“超級代表”把持驗證，而Tron聲譽緊隨孫宇晨個人而動，帶來執行及監管風險。若亞洲（Tron主用戶群體）情緒轉變，或有競爭鏈爭奪Tether轉帳市場，TRX的需求動力隨時削弱。此外，Tron的穩定幣生態包含算法穩定幣USDD，其2022年曾短暫脫鈎——後續任何不穩定都可能損害信任。

What’s next: In a continued choppy or down market, Tron may continue to act as a relatively stable “yield and utility” play. Its staking yields (currently ~4-5%) and ongoing usage for USDT could make TRX a quasi-“crypto bond” in investors’ eyes – not risk-free, but lower beta. If the market turns bullish, Tron might lag high-beta DeFi or AI tokens, but it proved it can outperform in a crunch. Keep an eye on Tron’s stablecoin flow metrics

後市展望：如加密市場繼續波動或下行，Tron或會繼續成為相對穩定的「收益＋應用」選擇。其質押年化回報（現時約4-5%）加上USDT網絡使用量，可令TRX憑藉“加密債券”地位吸引部分投資者——雖非零風險，但屬低Beta產品。若市場後續牛市爆發，Tron或會跑輸高Beta DeFi或AI概念幣，但論抗壓力其實證明過關。投資時亦要留意Tron穩定幣流動相關數據。（USDT-Tron供應量、交易次數）——如果用量保持高位或繼續增長，這對TRX的基本前景有支持作用。

同時要留意有關Tether或Tron的任何監管消息；到目前為止，Tron大致上避開了西方監管機構的追擊，但一旦出現任何問題，都有可能對其構成影響。短線來說，關鍵位落在大約$0.30的支持位——這個位置在暴跌時有守住——只要TRX日後在市場調整時繼續高於這個水平，就反映持續有力度。如果失守，則可能反映有根本性改變（例如stakers開始拋售）。現階段，Tron在10月10日的表現，鞏固了它在動盪加密圈中，相對穩定資產的形象。

2. 比特幣（BTC）：槓桿混亂中的機構錨

簡介：比特幣毋須多作介紹——它是原創加密貨幣，經常被譽為「數碼黃金」。作為加密市場最大市值的幣種，比特幣被零售到對沖基金企業財庫等各類參與者持有。固定的2100萬發行量及去中心化網絡，帶來獨特的儲值吸引力。最重要的是，比特幣為加密市場定下基調：當投資者怕altcoin風險時，它是最有機會受惠「資金避險」流動的資產。

崩盤表現：在10月10日閃崩期間，比特幣最低一度大約下跌了14–15%，由10月9日約$122,000跌到10月10日低位約$104,800。雖然盤中跌幅急劇，但比大部分的altcoin明顯溫和。到了動盪的一天完結時，BTC已反彈回$115,000以上，單日跌幅收窄至約8%。之後一周，比特幣隨著槓桿賣方出場而持續反彈。到10月22日，BTC於$108K–110K上下徘徊——相對崩盤前高位仍低約10%，但較低位有回升，並算穩定。實際上，比特幣主導率（市場總市值的佔比）崩盤後一度飆升至約60%，為數月新高，反映資本流向BTC。

時機方面：比特幣最差時段是10月10日UTC下午中段，但其後領先反彈。24小時內，BTC收復了約一半的跌幅。這種抗打擊力——跌得較少，復原較快——正正解釋了BTC為何在「避震榜」名列前茅。

為何能頂住：

• 市場深度最高：比特幣的市場流動性遠超其他幣——每日成交數百億美金，大型交易所買賣盤都相對厚。崩盤時，流動性雖然全市都「乾涸」了不少，但在$105K附近依然有買家出手，包括可能有大機構見低吸納。以比特幣當時超過2.2萬億美元的市值計，要像細幣那樣暴跌（以百分比計）需龐大賣壓。細幣根本沒有那麼多買單支持；BTC雖然最壞時刻也薄，但總比其他幣好。

• 資金由Alt回流：如前所述，分析師觀察到資金由altcoin流向比特幣。Willy Woo指出，以太幣、Solana等錄得大額資金流出，但BTC投資流向維持良好。這或部分屬於程式化、反射性：連環恐慌拋售時，有些trader會主動沽alt換BTC（不是兌現），把BTC當safe haven，預期BTC會先反彈/彈得更猛。有些則會同時平alt多單、BTC空單，效果上一樣等同支撐BTC。相關性斷裂：我們亦見到反彈過程中，比特幣對美股走勢略有脫鉤——雖然美股期貨弱，10月11日BTC已由低位回升，顯示加密本地買家回流比回風險幣更快。

• 機構及基本需求：宏觀背景也是BTC在2025年底有明顯機構參與（歐洲ETF到美國對沖基金）。崩盤當日，據報BlackRock的iShares Bitcoin Trust仍有淨流入，顯示部分投資者選擇以ETF「抄底」。再加上「數碼黃金」敘述在不明朗環境（貿易戰等）下或吸引資產配置維持/增加BTC。黃金本身十月曾創新高；而比特幣常被視作黃金「細佬」，初期恐慌過後可能間接受益於氣氛。我們亦不能忽視BTC減半將於2026年4月來臨——過去減半都利好，長線投資者或視大跌為吸納機會。

• 過度槓桿清算：技術層面，一個很重要的因素是約$190億的爆倉主要集中於比特幣及以太坊合約，因為這兩者最活躍。雖然初期推低幣價，但至10月11日大量炒家長倉已清算，Binance、OKX等BTC未平倉大幅下降。當槓桿去到乾淨，向下壓力減輕。BTC資金費率一度極度負值（即開空要付錢），通常是反向買訊號——意謂恐慌過頭。老手trader經常趁BTC資金費率極負時進場，「抄底」市場恐慌。這幫助BTC較快見底。

風險與展望：BTC表現強韌，不代表無敵。這次崩盤雖然跑出，但一大潛在風險是流動性分散——加密市場在不同交易所、OTC場外分散，即使是BTC都可能遇到流動性真空（正如今次見到那樣）。還有宏觀因素：BTC越來越跟隨宏觀資產走。如果債息抽升、股市進一步插水，比特幣也會再受壓。反過來說，如果減息預期升溫，或者地緣衝突令資金想配「非主權資產」，BTC又可能受捧。美國現貨BTC ETF如獲批（2025年底至2026初陸續有決定），屬巨大潛在利好——憧憬ETF亦可能令BTC有支持。

未來可能走勢：

• 基本情景（橫行整固）：比特幣大概於$100K–$120K區間徘徊，鞏固崩盤後收復。波幅或維持低於altcoin（事實上已如此——BTC30日波幅比大部分主流Alt低）。
• 悲觀情景（再度下跌）：如果再有外來衝擊，或是近日反彈失敗，重點是$100K心理關口。若高成交下跌穿$100K，有機會再引發止蝕賣盤或礦工出場恐慌。不過十月爆倉洗倉已大幅消減槓桿，所以若再測試，有可能較上次有秩序。同時要關注穩定幣流入交易所——如果發現USDC/USDT大量進所，可能意味大戶準備抄底BTC（利好）；若是現貨大量流出，則可能係套現（視乎整體市況）。
• 牛市情景（復甦/行情）：BTC領漲大市，首要是要重上$125K（先前高位）。交易員會觀察BTC dominance見頂及穩定，往往這會先於ALTs啟動一波反彈。不過，經此一役市場信心脆弱，BTC dominance有機會長時間偏高——可能幾個月都會跑贏風險幣。要留意鏈上持貨數據：目前長線持有者供應接近歷史新高（代表堅定HODLER頂住波動），歷史經驗是「沖倉之後」利好。

總結：比特幣在10月10日閃崩時再次證明了其市場錨的角色——雖然下跌但沒有暴瀉，而且比其他幣更快反彈。當全市場流血時，比特幣吸引資金的能力，是它一直成為任何加密投資組合核心資產的重要原因。2025年10月再次印證：市況不明朗時，很多人都會相對「逃到BTC」尋找安全。只要比特幣繼續成熟及與全球金融融為一體，這個趨勢很大機會持續下去。

3. 門羅幣（XMR）：低調穩陣——私隱收成正面

簡介：門羅幣是主打私隱的加密貨幣及區塊鏈。不同於比特幣或以太坊，門羅幣重視不可追蹤交易——交易金額、地址、細節都透過加密（環簽名、隱形地址等）技術隱藏。這令XMR成為重視財務私隱人士的首選幣種。其採用PoW挖礦（抗ASIC，鼓勵用CPU/GPU），並設有穩定尾部增發（小通脹），長遠激勵礦工維持網絡安全。重要的是，因私隱貨幣監管風險，門羅幣未有在多個主流交易所上市，自然令其流動性較分隔。其社群信念強烈，長線持有為主。

崩盤表現：10月10日那波，門羅幣特別穩定。由於XMR在衍生品平台上不多（各交易所wick略有不同，數據未必統一），但普遍估算低位跌幅約15%或更少——大幅優於其他非BTC幣種普遍30%以上跌幅。截至月底，XMR價格已升穿災前高位。從10月22日前的30天計，門羅幣累計升幅約+6%。換句話說，若你在閃崩前持有Monero，如今查餘額已賺錢——這點在大多數加密資產仍在捱低位的情況下相當罕有。這令Monero成為少數災後能創新高的資產之一。價格於$300初段美元區間徘徊，10月中曾短暫企上$340。部分交易員更預計，若氣氛延續，Monero第四季有望衝上$400以上。

在閃崩期間，門羅幣的跌幅亦很大程度上受惠於它沒有...large leveraged markets. For example, no Monero futures on Binance or CME to trigger mass liquidations. The trading that does happen is mostly spot on smaller exchanges or decentralized platforms. As a result, Monero’s order books didn’t see the same cascade of forced selling. Its recovery was relatively swift too – any dip was met by quiet buying, possibly by its dedicated user base.

大型槓桿市場。例如，Binance 或 CME 上並沒有 Monero 期貨，所以不會觸發大規模強制平倉。現有的交易大多是現貨，集中於一些較細規模或去中心化的交易平台。結果，Monero 的買賣盤並沒有出現強制拋售的「骨牌效應」。它的復甦速度亦相當快——一有回調，就有靜靜地買入，可能是核心用戶所為。

Why it held up:

• Virtually No Leverage & Less Speculation: Monero’s absence from major exchanges might seem like a liquidity weakness, but in this context it was a strength. There was no Perpetual swap pile-on, no futures wipeout in XMR. When everything correlated in a momentum crash, XMR was somewhat insulated from arbitrage bots dragging it down in lockstep. This doesn’t mean it’s completely decoupled, but the selling was purely organic. And Monero holders historically are less flippant – many acquire XMR for its utility (private transactions) or ideological reasons. This investor base is stickier, meaning less likely to panic sell. Evidence: across recent months, Monero consistently had over 50% of its supply dormant for >1 year, indicating strong holding conviction.

• 基本冇槓桿、較少炒作：Monero 無咩大型交易所上市，睇落好似流動性唔夠，其實今次反而係優勢。冇持續掉期、冇期貨合約被爆倉咁拖低 XMR。當所有幣都一齊向下爆 Momentum Crash 嗰陣，XMR 就冇咁易比高頻程式跟住砸價。唔代表佢完全脫鉤，但賣盤都係自然流失。加上歷史上，Monero 嘅持有人多數係睇重實用性（私隱交易）或者意識形態，所以「手鬆」冇咁嚴重。證據方面，過去幾個月，Monero 超過一半供應都「瞓著」咗一年以上，體現咗持貨者信念好強。

• Privacy Demand in Turmoil: Interestingly, the narrative of financial privacy gained appeal amid geopolitical tensions. The trade war news and broader surveillance concerns put a spotlight on privacy tools. In October, there was a broader mini-rally in privacy coins: not just Monero, but also Dash and Zcash saw surges (405% monthly gain for ZEC, 110% for DASH). Monero, as the most established privacy coin, likely benefited from a rotation into this theme. Some traders possibly shifted funds into Monero thinking that if things get worse (financially or geopolitically), a privacy-preserving asset is a good place to park value. It’s analogous to people buying physical gold or cash – Monero is digital cash. Indeed, Monero set a 2025 high in active addresses in mid-October, suggesting usage spiked as folks moved into XMR.

• 亂市對私隱嘅需求：幾有趣，當政治氣氛緊張、貿易戰新聞多、監控疑慮升溫時，「財務私隱」變得更加吸引。十月時一輪私隱幣迷你升浪，唔止 Monero，連 Dash 同 Zcash 都一齊飆（ZEC 單月升咗 405%，DASH 升咗 110%）。作為最有歷史嘅私隱幣，Monero 受惠於資金輪動。有啲人覺得，萬一經濟或政治再惡化，資金擺入私隱資產會係好選擇，好似買金或者現鈔咁——Monero 就係數碼現金。事實上，10月中 Monero 活躍地址創 2025 年新高，可能反映用戶轉入 XMR 之後用得多咗。

• Continuous Miner Support & Tail Emission: Monero has a unique economic feature: it will never run out of block rewards (after main emission, it has 0.6 XMR per block forever). This tail emission means miners always have some incentive. During the crash, Bitcoin and others saw some miners briefly turn off machines as price plunged (less profitable). Monero’s network hash rate didn’t significantly dip; mining continued steadily. That in turn kept the network secure and running smoothly – there was no additional fear factor like “miners capitulating” which sometimes haunts Bitcoin or Ethereum in big downturns. In short, Monero’s network operations were boringly consistent during the chaos, helping confidence.

• 礦工支持穩定 — 恒久出塊獎勵：Monero 有個特點，就係區塊獎勵永遠唔會出晒（主發行期過後，每個區塊永遠有 0.6 XMR 奬勵）。即係礦工永遠有誘因。今次大跌市，BTC、其他幣都見到陣間有礦工熄機（因為唔賺），但 Monero 全程算力冇咩跌，繼續穩定挖礦，保障咗網絡安全同流暢。唔似 BTC、ETH 大跌市時啲人驚「礦工投降」，成個氛圍好淡。精簡啲講，Monero 網絡喺混亂時期依舊悶悶地穩定運行，對幣價信心係一種支持。

• Lack of Whales Dumping: Monero’s distribution is relatively decentralized (it was launched fairly with no premine/ICO). There aren’t known huge foundation treasuries or VC funds holding XMR who might dump in a crunch. That’s a stark contrast to many altcoins where large holders (e.g. foundations, early investors) sometimes rush to hedging or selling when things go south. Monero didn’t have, say, a Multicoin Capital or a foundation unloading a stash. The largest “entity” holdings are likely exchange wallets or maybe mining pools, none of whom behaved erratically. This removes a source of overhead supply under stress.

• 巨鯨拋貨唔多：Monero 分佈算幾去中心化（冇預挖、冇ICO）。冇大型基金會金庫、冇VC大戶握住成堆 XMR 等緊市差時拋貨。對比好多其他山寨幣（基金、大戶會快手對沖or一齊砸落去），Monero 唔會無啦啦有財團拋貨。最大「持貨單位」都係交易平台或礦池，而佢哋都冇乜異常行為。減少咗壓力供應源頭。

Risks and forward-looking: Monero’s very strength – privacy – is also its biggest risk in terms of adoption and regulation. It’s already delisted from some exchanges due to AML concerns. If more regulators crack down on privacy coins, liquidity could further constrict (e.g. if remaining exchanges like Kraken were forced to drop it). Another risk: network upgrades or competition. Monero has successfully upgraded (hard-forked) multiple times to improve privacy and resistance to specialized miners. It needs to continue this technical vigilance. If a weakness in its privacy were found, its value prop could be hurt. Alternatively, if another privacy tech (like Zcash’s upcoming UDAs or new coins like Dero) gained traction at Monero’s expense, it could slowly lose share.

展望風險：Monero 最強之處——私隱——亦係最大風險。已經因為反洗黑錢（AML）問題俾部分交易所下架；如果監管壓力再大（例如 Kraken 呢啲殘存主流平台都要 remove），流動性會再收窄。另一風險係網絡升級或者其他競爭對手。Monero 過去多次成功 hard fork，提升私隱同抗 ASIC，但都要保持技術警覺。如果私隱出現漏洞，Monero 嘅價值主張都會受損。再者，如果新技術（例如Zcash新 UDA 或 Dero呢類新幣）逐步奪市，XMR 都有機會被分薄。

That said, Monero has been resilient for years, and its community is among the most loyal. Its use in grey markets (while a controversial point) provides it a floor of real-world usage. For scenario analysis:

不過，Monero 一直以來都幾硬淨，社群亦好忠誠。灰色市場嘅實際應用（雖然有爭議）都俾到佢最低的「用戶需求底」。情境分析如下：

• In a bearish or volatile market, Monero could continue to quietly outperform. It has a low correlation profile historically. If trust in centralized systems erodes, people might increasingly diversify into Monero for some financial privacy, ironically making it a defensive asset.

• 如果市況好淡或者上下震，Monero 可能會繼續靜靜地跑贏。傳統相關性一向偏低。如果大家對中心化體制開始唔信，會多咗人分散擺錢落 Monero，追尋資產私隱，某程度上變「防守型資產」。

• In a bull market, Monero might lag frothier DeFi or AI coins, but it tends to steadily appreciate and then have spurts when a catalyst hits (for instance, when exchanges in South Korea relisted privacy coins briefly, Monero popped). One potential catalyst on horizon: the increasing discussion of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and surveillance finance. Should that narrative heat up, Monero stands to gain mindshare as an alternative.

• 牛市時，XMR 可能冇咁勁過啲新興 DeFi／AI 幣，但通常穩打穩紮地升，遇到催化劑仲會爆 shot（好似韓國短暫重上線私隱幣時咁，XMR 一彈即起）。未來一個可能催化劑係：央行數碼貨幣（CBDC）及監察型金融愈炒愈熱，Monero 有機會成為替代方案被人關注。

• Key levels: On the chart, XMR is eyeing the $340-$360 zone (recent local high). Clearing that could open a move to $400, which would be the highest since 2022. On the downside, support around $280 has held repeatedly. Keep an eye on trading volumes on decentralized exchanges like Haveno or local P2P markets – spikes there can signal organic buying that isn’t captured on the big exchange feeds.

• 關鍵價位：睇圖 XMR 係 $340–$360 位有阻力（近期高位），如破到位，有機會衝上 $400，係 2022 年以來新高。下方 $280 支持位屢次見效。可以睇實 Haveno 等去中心化交易所，或者本地 P2P 區塊鏈市集啲成交量——見到成交異動，往往係大戶主動買貨，而非大平台報價所見。

In summary, Monero proved a bastion of stability in the Oct. 10 crash, validating the idea that a truly decentralized, utilitarian coin can act as a hedge against broader crypto turmoil. It’s not completely uncorrelated, but its unique qualities provided insulation. For those building crypto portfolios, Monero’s performance is a case study in the value of diversity: having some exposure to privacy coins added resilience during one of the wildest days in crypto history.

總結，Monero 喺 10月10日大跌市期間，充分證明自己可以扮演「穩定堡壘」角色，一隻真正去中心化、實用性強嘅幣可以成為對抗加密市場混亂嘅對沖工具。雖然唔係完全脫鉤，但其獨特優勢可以發揮一定保護作用。對組建加密資產組合嘅人嚟講，Monero 今次表現就係多元化組合價值嘅好例子——牛熊交替最癲嗰日，「有私隱幣」明顯加強你嘅防禦力。

4. Binance Coin (BNB): Exchange Giant’s Token Weathers the Storm

4. 幣安幣（BNB）：交易所巨頭代幣頂住大風浪

What it is: BNB is the native token of Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Originally launched on Ethereum, it now operates primarily on the Binance Smart Chain (now called BNB Chain), which is a Layer-1 blockchain for smart contracts (with BNB as gas). BNB has multiple utility roles: paying discounted trading fees on Binance exchange, fueling transactions on BNB Chain, and participating in token sales and other programs in the Binance ecosystem. It’s effectively a hybrid exchange loyalty token and a smart contract platform coin. Binance also conducts quarterly BNB burns (token buybacks and burns) using a portion of their profits, which reduces supply over time.

咩嚟：BNB 係幣安（全球最大加密貨幣交易所）平台幣，最初喺以太坊上發行，依家主要喺自家主網（BNB Chain，即舊稱 Binance Smart Chain）運作，主網係 Layer-1 區塊鏈，BNB 用嚟畀 gas。BNB 有多重用途：可以畀交易所手續費減價、喺 BNB Chain 上進行交易、參與幣安生態嘅發售活動等等。等於交易所忠誠積分同平台幣雙重身份。幣安仲會用部份利潤做季度回購銷毀（BNB Burn），供應會越來越少。

Crash performance: BNB demonstrated notable resilience during the Oct. 10 crash, though not as extreme as Tron or Monero. At its lowest, BNB dipped to around $900–950 from roughly $1,200 pre-crash (estimates), roughly a 20-25% decline at the worst point. By Oct. 13, it had bounced back above $1,050. In fact, in the immediate aftermath, BNB was highlighted as one of the top rebounders – it was “last week’s top performer” among majors, according to market observers on Oct. 20. Over the week following the crash, BNB did give up some gains, ending about 12% down week-on-week by Oct. 20. As of Oct. 22, BNB trades around $1,070, still roughly 10% below its Oct. 9 level but firmly off the lows. It held its position as the #4 largest crypto by market cap throughout the turmoil.

大跌日表現：10月10日大跌，BNB 維穩力相當唔錯（雖然唔夠 Tron 或 Monero 咁誇張）。最低時由 $1,200（估算）跌到約 $900–950，最大跌幅20%-25%。但10月13日已回升上 $1,050 以上。事後好多市場評論都話BNB屬於「主要幣種中反彈最好之一」，10月20日更列為「上週表現最頂」。不過之後一周有少少回吐，10月20日計，比一周前還低約12%。去到10月22日，BNB 約$1,070，仲低過10月9日大約10%，但比低位反彈穩住全程第四大市值寶座。

Notably, BNB did not exhibit the kind of severe wicks that many altcoins did. It traded in a somewhat orderly fashion (relatively speaking) through the chaos – likely a function of Binance’s own platform managing the order flow and possibly intervening (there’s speculation Binance may have an interest in preventing extreme BNB volatility).

BNB 冇其他細山寨幣咁多極端上下影線，成交比較有秩序。呢點有可能同幣安平台自己管理訂單流、甚至主動維穩有關（坊間不時有陰謀論，指幣安唔想見到 BNB 極端波幅，因為自己得益其中）。

Why it held up:

• Strong Insider Support and Buybacks: Binance has a vested interest in BNB’s stability. The exchange’s quarterly burn mechanism essentially acts as a built-in buyer of BNB (using exchange profits). While the next burn schedule is fixed, the knowledge that Binance continually takes BNB out of circulation can create a psychological floor. It’s not confirmed whether Binance directly supported BNB’s price during the crash (through market-making), but it’s widely believed Binance monitors BNB markets closely. Unlike purely decentralized assets, BNB has a sort of implicit “central bank” in Binance. This can deter short-sellers, knowing that an entity with deep pockets stands behind the token. During the crash, there were no known large BNB liquidations, hinting that big holders (including Binance itself) didn’t panic sell.

• 官方積極護盤回購：幣安作為 BNB 發行方，理所當然希望幣價穩定。交易所季度性回購銷毀（Burn Program），實際等於自家用利潤做「底買家」。雖然無證據話 crash 期間幣安直接托市，但眾所周知幣安對自家幣市炒得好近，等於多咗個「影子央行」背景，令沽空者卻步。大市爆跌時，冇見到有 BNB 巨倉拋盤（包括幣安自己），證明內部信心穩定。

• Utility & Demand for Fees: Even on Oct. 10, Binance exchange saw record trading volumes. Guess what traders need to use for fees (if they want discounts)? BNB. It’s plausible that as volatility surged, some market makers and high-frequency traders actually bought BNB (or at least didn’t sell their stash) to avail cheaper fees on the massive volume day. So trading activity spikes can create reflex demand for BNB. Additionally, BNB Chain itself didn’t suffer any major incidents, and usage continued (though it’s smaller compared to Ethereum or Tron’s volumes). This baseline utility might have kept some BNB off the market.

• 費用用途帶來需求：即使 crash 當日，幣安平台成交爆晒燈，而用戶要平手續費就要買 BNB。好多市況波動日，大戶、高頻交易員為咗慳錢，可能趁機買入或穩住手上 BNB，帶動功能性需求。加上主鏈（BNB Chain）運作一切正常，無大事故（雖然用量未及 ETH 或 TRON），但有一定消耗，令部分供應無流出拋售。

• Relatively Limited Circulating Supply: Over the years, Binance’s burns have significantly reduced BNB’s circulating supply (originally 200 million, now down to ~153 million and dropping). Many BNB are also locked in various Binance Earn products or held by investors who use BNB as a long-term stake in Binance’s ecosystem. This means during a crunch, the float that’s actively traded isn’t as huge as the market cap implies. Lower available supply can dampen the price impact of sell orders, assuming demand doesn’t evaporate.

• 流通供應相對細：咁多年嚟，幣安持續回購銷毀，BNB 流通量由原本 2 億減到大約 1.53 億（仲會再減）。大量 BNB 仲鎖定喺 Earn 產品，同埋俾打算長線投資幣安生態嘅人擁有。即係遇到跌市，真係用嚟拋售嘅流通貨源未必咁多，有助緩衝賣盤對幣價影響。

• Market Perception as Blue Chip: BNB, by virtue of Binance’s dominance, is often seen as a quasi-blue-chip in crypto. It’s not as decentralized as BTC or ETH,

• 藍籌光環：有幣安這個霸主背書，BNB 一直俾市場當做藍籌或者大盤幣（雖然去中心化程度唔及 BTC/ETH）…but traders respect its size. In panics, some may rotate from fringe alts into something like BNB thinking it’s safer (given Binance’s clout). The correlation of BNB with overall market is high in uptrends, but interestingly in this down shock, BNB held up better than other platform coins (e.g., Solana or Cardano). That suggests people viewed BNB as one of the stronger horses to bet on in the altcoin stable, given Binance’s global influence and profitability.

但炒家都會尊重BNB嘅市值。喺市場恐慌嗰陣，有啲人可能會由邊緣山寨幣轉過去類似BNB呢啲大幣，覺得佢比較安全（配合Binance嘅影響力）。BNB同大市上升時嘅相關性都好高，但有趣嘅係，呢次下跌衝擊之中，BNB反而比其他平台幣（例如Solana或Cardano）頂得住。咁樣反映市場認為BNB係山寨幣圈入面較強勢嘅選擇，配合Binance全球影響力同盈利能力。

Risks and forward-looking: BNB’s fate is tightly linked to Binance’s fate. This is a double-edged sword. On one hand, Binance’s continued profitability (they’re a cash machine in trading fees) and ecosystem growth bolster BNB’s value. On the other hand, regulatory actions against Binance (U.S. SEC and others have ongoing cases) loom as a tail risk. If Binance were forced out of key markets or faced operational issues, BNB could suffer severely. It’s essentially an equity-like token for Binance’s ecosystem without formal equity rights.

風險同前瞻：BNB嘅命運同Binance綁得好緊，屬於一把雙刃劍。一方面，Binance持續有盈利（交易費根本係現金收割機）同生態系統擴張，有助撐高BNB估值。但另一方面，監管機構對Binance發動行動（美國SEC等仲有訴訟未解決），呢啲都成為「尾部風險」。如果Binance比人踢出某啲主要市場，或者出現營運問題，BNB可能會大插水。事實上，BNB基本上係Binance生態入面、冇正式股權權利嘅「類股權Token」。

Additionally, BNB Chain faces competition from other Layer-1s and Layer-2s. Its transaction volumes have been moderate, and some metrics like total value locked in BNB Chain DeFi are down from peaks. If developers and users migrate away, one leg of BNB’s demand (as gas) weakens. So far, Binance has kept BNB relevant via new launches (e.g., Binance Launchpad tokens require holding BNB), but it’s an active effort.

再者，BNB鏈都面臨其他Layer-1同Layer-2競爭。佢嘅鏈上交易量其實屬於中等，而一啲數據（例如DeFi總鎖倉量TVL）都係由高位落返嚟。如果開發者、用戶轉去其他鏈，BNB作為Gas嘅需求會削弱。暫時Binance靠連續推出新項目（例如Binance Launchpad經常要求持有BNB）先保持到BNB人氣，但都要主動去推動。

What’s next: In a flat market scenario, BNB likely trades in tandem with general sentiment, perhaps with slightly lower volatility than smaller alts. Its beta to BTC is usually somewhat above 1 (meaning it moves a bit more than BTC), but in the crash it was lower – that might not always hold. For a bullish case: if crypto markets recover and Binance continues expanding (for example, Binance might get into new markets or products), BNB could climb back to pre-crash levels and beyond. The next milestone for BNB would be reclaiming $1,200 and then targeting its all-time high region (around $1,500+ from earlier in 2025). A catalyst could be Binance resolving some regulatory issues – if a settlement or positive development occurs, it would remove a discount weighing on BNB.

未來展望：如果大市係牛皮格局，BNB多數會跟住整體氣氛上落，波動可能比細山寨幣低啲。傳統嚟講，BNB對BTC Beta值係稍高於1（即多數升跌幅比BTC大少少），但今次下跌期反而低過BTC，但呢情況唔一定會長期持續。 牛市情境：如果加密貨幣市場復甦，而Binance又持續擴展（例如開拓新市場／產品），BNB有機會重返跌市前水平甚至創新高。下一個大目標係先企穩$1,200，再挑戰歷史高位$1,500+（預計2025年初回到呢水位）。催化劑可能係Binance解決監管訴訟，如果真係和解或有利好新進展，就會有一陣升勢。

In a bearish case: if another shock hits or if Binance sees a wave of withdrawals (there was a period of fear in late 2024 around Binance solvency which BNB dipped on), then BNB could retest the sub-$900 area. Watch for unusual on-chain movements – large BNB transfers from Binance wallets to other exchanges could indicate selling or liquidity needs, which would be a red flag.

淡市情境：如果有新一輪衝擊，又或者Binance出現大規模提款潮（2024年底一度有市場擔心Binance償付能力，BNB都曾短暫插水），BNB可能會再次考驗$900以下。要留意鏈上異常流動——如果見到大量BNB由Binance錢包轉去其他交易所，可能暗示有人拋貨或者交易所有現金流需求，咁就要小心。

Also, keep an eye on the BNB burn announcements. While scheduled, they sometimes surprise with how large they are (since it’s tied to Binance’s trading volumes). A significantly large burn (meaning Binance had an extremely profitable quarter) could create positive sentiment. In summary, BNB proved itself as one of the more resilient top tokens in this crash, aided by its unique position as an exchange-backed asset. It underscores how in times of stress, ties to real business cash flows (trading fees) and a quasi-centralized support can stabilize a token. BNB’s resilience, however, ultimately rests on trust in Binance – something that the community will keep evaluating as the regulatory climate evolves.

另外，都要留意BNB銷毀（burn）公告。雖然銷毀係有schedule，但有時數量大過預期（因為係根據Binance交易量而定），如果見到明顯大額銷毀（即是Binance上一季生意極旺），有機會帶動一波正面情緒。 總結嚟講，BNB今次跌市係最頂得住嘅主流幣之一，全靠佢作為交易所孭背資產嘅獨特地位。今次經驗都反映到危機時刻，連結實體業務現金流（例如交易費）同半中心化嘅實力，對幣價相當有穩定作用。留意，BNB能否長期頂得住，最終都係靠大家對Binance有冇信心——監管氛圍轉變都會持續成為社群討論焦點。

5. Ethereum (ETH): The Ubiquitous Platform That Bent, Not Broke

5. 以太坊（ETH）：被壓彎但未被擊倒的主流平台

What it is: Ethereum is the second-largest cryptocurrency and the leading smart contract platform that underpins much of decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and other Web3 applications. ETH is the native token used for transaction fees (gas) and is also a staking asset now (since Ethereum’s switch to proof-of-stake in 2022). Ethereum has a vast ecosystem and is often considered the “reserve asset” of DeFi. Its performance is thus entwined with the broader crypto market’s health.

簡介：以太坊係全球第二大加密貨幣，同時係智能合約平台龍頭，承載住好多DeFi、生態、NFT同Web3應用。ETH係內置代幣，用來付款Gas費，而自從2022年轉型做PoS（權益證明）之後，ETH亦成為質押資產。以太坊生態龐大，經常被視為DeFi嘅「儲備資產」。所以佢表現同整體加密市場健康高度相關。

Crash performance: Ethereum did fall harder than Bitcoin on Oct. 10, which is expected given it’s higher beta, but it still outperformed most altcoins and held key levels. ETH’s price plunged from about $4,800 (near its all-time high around Oct. 6) down to roughly $3,436 at the low on Oct. 10, a drop of approximately 28% from peak, or ~12% on a daily basis as reported. Some sources noted an intraday low closer to $3,500, but Waters’ report cites ~21% decline which likely is peak-to-trough. After that initial jolt, Ethereum rebounded above $4,000 quite quickly – it was back to ~$4,254 by end of Oct. 11. As of Oct. 22, ETH trades around the $3,800–3,900 range, still about 20% below the early October high, but it has recuperated from the worst of the crash. Relative to BTC, ETH’s ratio dipped during the crash (meaning ETH underperformed BTC initially), but it stabilized afterward.

今次下跌表現：10月10日，Ethereum（ETH）跌幅比BTC大係意料之中（因為Beta高啲），但其實都算頂得住，大部分時間都好過其他主流山寨幣，而且守住咗啲重要位。佢由10月6日接近歷史高位$4,800一度跌穿$3,436（10月10日低位），高位計落嚟跌咗大約28%，單日跌幅大概12%。有啲來源話最低見過$3,500，相信大約係21%頂到底（Waters報告用呢數字）。不過反彈都快，短短一日內已經企返上$4,000樓上（10月11日收市$4,254左右）。去到10月22日，價位保持喺$3,800-$3,900之間，相比10月初高位仍低大約20%，但嚴重插水嗰陣已經叫做恢復唔少。對比BTC，在下跌期ETH/BTC Ratio都曾經下滑（即ETH一開頭跑輸BTC），但之後慢慢穩定返。

Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem did experience some stress: on Oct. 10–11, many DeFi protocols saw large liquidations (e.g., over-collateralized loans on Aave, Maker vaults getting liquidated). However, the system overall functioned without major failures – a testament to its robustness. This prevented a worst-case downward spiral. By mid-October, ETH had one of its strongest daily rallies in months (a ~14% up day on Oct. 19) as confidence returned and possibly as whales bought the dip in DeFi assets, which indirectly supports ETH.

以太坊DeFi生態都有壓力：10月10-11日期間，好多DeFi協議出現大規模清算（例如Aave啲抵押貸款被強平，Maker Vault同樣被平倉）。但整體系統冇出現嚴重故障，證明咗以太坊穩定同韌力，避免咗「死亡螺旋」。到10月中，ETH迎來幾個月嚟最兇猛單日反彈（10月19日升咗14%），市場信心逐漸回暖，可能有巨鯨趁低吸納DeFi資產，變相支撐咗ETH。

Why it (relatively) held up:

為何（相對）頂得住：

• High Utilization and Demand for Gas: Even during the sell-off, Ethereum’s network was extremely busy – partly because of the sell-off. People were scrambling to move funds, adjust positions, trade on DEXs, etc., all of which require ETH for gas fees. On Oct. 10, gas prices spiked with the surge in activity. That means arbitrageurs and traders needed to hold ETH to pay those fees, creating a baseline demand. Also, some DeFi protocols automatically buy ETH (to burn as fees or for liquidity) when volume spikes. The result: Ethereum’s utility provided some natural buy pressure even as speculators sold.

• 網絡高度活躍同Gas需求大：即使大跌期，以太坊網絡都超繁忙（其實部分原因都係因為市場跌大家要動錢、平倉、DEX大炒），全部都要用ETH交Gas費。10月10日，Gas fee勁升，證明搶著用區塊空間。即係話，有套利者同炒家都要手持ETH先有得用，形成基本需求。同時，部分DeFi協議喺交易量暴增時會自動回購ETH（部分燒毀、部分做流動性），一樣為ETH帶嚟天然買盤。

• Staking Mechanism Reduces Liquid Supply: With Ethereum’s move to proof-of-stake, a huge amount of ETH is locked up in staking (over 28 million ETH staked, roughly 20%+ of supply). While there is liquidity via liquid staking derivatives (LSDs like stETH), many ETH are effectively out of circulation or in long-term holders’ hands. During the crash, there was no evidence of a mass unstaking – withdrawals from the staking contract remained routine, not panic-driven. This implies a large portion of ETH supply was not on the market to be dumped, cushioning the blow. In fact, some stakers may have taken advantage of lower prices to spin up new validators or top-up collateral.

• 質押機制減少流通供應：以太坊轉咗PoS之後，好多ETH被鎖咗嚟做質押（超過2,800萬枚，差唔多佔總供應兩成）。雖然有液態質押產物（例如stETH）提供部份流動性，但實際上有唔少ETH唔會喺市面流通，係長線持有人手上。今次大跌冇見過大規模解鎖，退出質押都係正常操作，冇跡象係恐慌走資。即係話大量ETH唔會一齊拋出市，等於對價錢有護航。事實上，有D人仲趁平市加碼做驗證者或增補抵押品。

• Institutional and Developer Conviction: Ethereum has a broad base of stakeholders beyond day-traders: developers building on it, enterprises experimenting with it, and institutions (some via funds or futures) with longer-term theses. That collective conviction can create dip-buying. It’s telling that in the weeks after the crash, Ethereum-based ETFs saw fresh inflows (e.g., Ethereum futures ETFs had some upticks as per fund flow reports). Additionally, large DeFi players would buy ETH on discount to deploy into yield strategies. MakerDAO’s system, for instance, uses ETH as collateral; if ETH gets too cheap, arbitrageurs buy it to open DAI loans or to arbitrage liquidations.

• 機構、開發者有信心：以太坊支持者多元化，唔淨係炒家，仲有大量開發團隊、企業、長線投資者（例如基金、期貨）等，呢班人會趁低吸納。好明顯，今次大跌之後，以太坊相關ETF資金重新流入（例如以太坊期貨ETF資金流返正數）。同時不少DeFi大型玩家都會乘低吸ETH，部署收息玩法。好似MakerDAO背後其實都要用ETH做抵押，如果ETH太平，有人會執貨開DAI或者套利強平。

• Reduced Leverage After Initial Flush: Like Bitcoin, Ethereum had a lot of leverage that got flushed out on Oct. 10. More than a few large ETH long positions were liquidated in that $4.8K to $3.5K drop. By Oct. 12, the perpetual futures funding for ETH had turned deeply negative then normalized, indicating the excess long leverage was gone. This cleared the path for a more organic price, less at risk of further cascade absent new shocks. Also, options data showed many traders had hedged with puts (e.g., $3,600 strike puts for mid-October) – once the crash happened, those hedges could be closed or took profit, removing constant sell pressure.

• 大部分槓桿已經洗清：同BTC一樣，ETH早前其實都有好多槓桿倉，10月10日急跌期大量長倉被強平（由$4,800瀉到$3,500）。去到10月12日，永續合約資金費用轉負再正常返，代表高槓桿多數被掃晒，剩返嘅價錢變得自然啲，不容易再出現連鎖式插水。又，期權數據都見到好多炒家買咗Put（如$3,600中期Put），大跌後呢啲對沖可以食胡或平倉，唔使成日維持沽壓。

Risks and forward-looking: Ethereum wasn’t the top performer in this crash, but it didn’t disgrace itself either. Going forward, macro factors (like interest rates and tech stock correlation) will continue to impact ETH significantly, perhaps more than idiosyncratic factors. One looming event: Ethereum ETF approvals. The market is expecting spot ETH ETFs in the U.S. possibly in 2024. Anticipation of that could help ETH, whereas delays or rejections could hurt sentiment.

風險同後市：ETH唔算今次最好表現嘅幣種，但表現都算唔錯。往後，宏觀因素（例如息口、科網股表現）影響會好大，甚至大過ETH自身發展。值得睇埋美國現貨Ethereum ETF批唔批，2024年有機會批准，市場好預期，（批准就利好，拖延或拒批就踩低情緒）。

Another consideration is Ethereum’s fee market dynamics and Layer-2 adoption. If more activity migrates to Layer-2 networks (like Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync) due to high fees, the direct demand for ETH as gas on mainnet might lessen. However, those L2s still ultimately settle in ETH on Layer-1, and many use ETH as their native gas too (Optimism and Arbitrum are moving towards paying fees in ETH). So Ethereum’s role remains pivotal.

另外值得注意係以太坊手續費（Fee Market）動態同L2採用情況。如果主網Gas費繼續高，更多用戶同應用轉移咗去Layer-2（比如Arbitrum、Optimism、zkSync），主網用ETH做Gas的需求暫時或會減弱。不過，L2最終都要落單喺Ethereum Layer-1，亦有唔少L2直接用ETH做Gas（Optimism、Arbitrum都逐步全部轉由ETH結算），所以以太坊依然係核心。

From a resilience standpoint, one potential risk is DeFi contagion. In this crash, DeFi protocols handled things well; but if there were a failure (say an algorithmic stablecoin break or a major exploit) coinciding with market stress, ETH could face double pressure as both an asset and the collateral backbone.

講「韌力」，要小心DeFi風險傳染。今次下跌各大DeFi系統頂得住，但如果以後有類似算法穩定幣崩潰或嚴重黑客事件，加埋市況差，ETH就會同時面對資產下跌同抵押品爆倉雙重壓力。

For scenarios:

• Bull case: ETH reclaims $4,500 and beyond, potentially leading a new cycle of innovation (perhaps around tokenized real-world assets, given Galaxy’s note that tokenization is a tailwind). If Bitcoin ETF gets approved, an ETH spot ETF might follow, injecting fresh institutional capital. Under this, ETH likely outperforms BTC again in a bull run, as it often does.
• Bear case: If macro goes risk-off or if any ETH-specific event (like a delay in the next protocol upgrade) spooks investors, ETH could retest the post-crash lows around $3.5K. A break below that would be concerning, possibly targeting the low-$3K range where a lot of trading volume occurred earlier in 2025. Watch ETH/BTC ratio – continued weakness there might signal rotation out of ETH into BTC by big players, often a defensive allocation.
• Key

情境分析：

• 牛市情景：ETH企穩$4,500甚至突破，有條件帶領新一輪創新周期（例如鏈上資產Token化，Galaxy都提過呢個方向係大趨勢）。如果BTC ETF批出，ETH現貨ETF有望跟住批，注入新一輪機構資金，咁ETH升勢有望再次跑贏BTC（一如以往牛市）。
• 熊市情景：如果大氣候轉為避險（Risk-off），或者以太坊有重大壞消息（例如升級延遲），ETH可能會回測「股災底」$3,500水平。如果跌穿呢個位，下一個目標可能係2025年初大量成交嘅$3,000-$3,200。要望埋ETH/BTC比率，如果持續走弱，可能代表大戶資金轉去BTC，變相係防守部署。
• 重要指標： indicators: 監察鏈上活動（交易量急跌可能代表興趣冷卻）、質押（staking）存款/提款模式（提款激增有機會係利淡信號，暫時未見到）、以及以太坊基金會或者ICO時期巨鯨嘅大額ETH轉動（如果呢啲實體大量沽貨會打壓價格）。

總結嚟講，以太坊依然係加密市場嘅關鍵基礎設施。佢喺幾次大跌市入面表現「有韌性」， 部分原因就係佢不可或缺——好多參與者根本走唔甩ETH，否則即係要同生態系統講拜拜。呢份「黏性」令佢雖然有壓力但唔至於斷纜。雖然今次冇排到榜首（因為約21%回調），不過Ethereum就算面對大洗牌，都仍然係市場上較為穩健嘅資產之一。

6. Chainlink (LINK)：鯨魚撐場、實際採用嘅Oracles

簡介：Chainlink係業界頂尖去中心化oracle網絡，為區塊鏈智能合約提供真實世界數據（例如價格feeds、事件資訊等）。LINK係生態內支付節點營運商提供數據嘅酬勞，節點有時要抵押LINK做擔保。Chainlink已經係DeFi界嘅重要基礎設施——佢嘅價格oracles係保障數百億美元價值安全。除咗報價功能，Chainlink慢慢拓展到隨機數（VRF）、自動化、跨鏈互通（CCIP）等新領域。本質上，Chainlink係區塊鏈之間嘅中間件，而LINK係推動經濟運作嘅核心代幣。

大跌表現：LINK雖然都受10月10日大市拖累，但整體算係硬淨，之後仲見反彈。LINK由約18美元高位，一度跌至約15蚊（10月11日市內最低），高低波幅約20%。最差嗰刻甚至低見16蚊樓下，但好快已經反彈。去到10月20日，LINK回升至約17.40美元，某一日24小時內仲升咗13.6%，帶領復甦。當時大部分山寨幣都仲未回過神。10月22日，LINK喺17-18蚊徘徊，即係跌市前後基本企穩仲有微升。

值得留意，Chainlink喺跌市之後同大市開始脫鈎：好多幣橫行唔郁，LINK卻逆勢上升。10月21日更衝上20蚊附近短暫創高。呢種相對強勢好突出——事實係市場復甦時LINK成為佼佼者。

點解LINK撐得住：

• 鯨魚吸納&持有者基礎：最大因素之一——鏈上數據見到大戶（鯨魚）喺跌市期間及之後大手吸納LINK。Lookonchain分析指，10月11日開始約有30個新鯨魚錢包掃入6.26百萬LINK（約值1.16億美元）。咁大手吸納短時間內完成，反映買家睇好LINK長遠價值，而且信心十足。有咁多堅定買家，自然形成價格底線。事實上，每次LINK跌近15蚊，都好似有人等緊吸貨。Chainlink社群長期強調好多LINK係俾「信徒」或者項目金庫持有（官方都唔多出貨），令流通量降低。呢輪鯨魚行動再次證明高資產投資者認定LINK低價具吸引力，貢獻抗跌力。

• 實際應用同收入：Chainlink用得出真價值——唔係炒作得個殼。多條鏈嘅協議都要用Chainlink服務，最近更推出新經濟模式（Chainlink Staking v0.2及之後）同更清晰的收費結構。2025第三季報告重點合作包括同Swift試連銀行、DTCC及Euroclear搞金融基建，同美國商務部都試過將政府數據上鏈。呢啲實在進展，即使市況波動，都能俾投資者信心。大家有案例可指：「LINK有真實合作，無理由插到底。」再者Chainlink Oracle市佔（以資產保值計62%）咁高，DeFi反彈定必增加需求。對比好多山寨，LINK相對屬於有基本面支持嘅選擇。

• 槓桿低、過往表現一般：10月初時LINK唔係大升品種，社群甚至覺得有啲低估（始終距離2021年歷史高位~52usd仲有距離）。炒家開槓桿押注LINK嘅情況極小——永續合約資金費用甚至中性或輕微負數，冇乜炒風。咁一來大跌時又冇咁多牛證要斬倉。LINK前幾次升浪又唔算爆升，持有者普遍係有耐性既長線黨，而非追勢炒家。早前已經篩走咗啲弱手，今次大家都冇咁易俾嚇走。

• 生態整合（Staking & CCIP）：Chainlink新推出Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol（CCIP）2025年開始被採用（連啲銀行都黎試水）。CCIP用得多，大家要俾LINK當手續費。呢個故事令人跌市都唔怕：未來跨鏈多咗，Chainlink有機。因此staking（v0.1體量細，v1.0之後大幅提升）會鎖定LINK，減少拋售壓力。有投機者甚至捕住未來stake大升，博捕撈低位。

風險及展望：Chainlink過去最大挑戰係實際應用收入唔一定直接歸LINK（因為數據有時以協議自己幣支付/補貼）。不過，新一代Chainlink Economics 2.0針對咗分紅、收費同擴大staking機制。如果未來依然唔多幣要買、手續費低，個故事會失色。

另一個風險係競爭同自給自足。有項目試做自己oracle或者搵替代品，減少對Chainlink依賴。如果有大鏈（如Solana抑或新L2）走競品/自研路線，幣價會受壓。目前睇Chainlink網絡效應仲係強。

宏觀角度，如果市場變長熊，就算基本面好嘅LINK都照冧。記住之前幾次Crypto冬天，LINK都跌得犀利。隻幣夠韌但唔係不死之身。再者鯨魚持有有雙刃劍——吸納當然好，但一旦高位分散，沽壓一樣可以頂住升浪。

未來可睇著：短期內LINK應隨著生態增長表現。若Chainlink服務收費顯著提升（官方或節點收入能反映到），就會吸引更多基本面投資者。另外，staking v0.2及後續能成功推展且參與度高，有機會收縮流通量、提升信心。

價格走勢：

• 牛市：如果LINK企穩20美元以上，可能挑戰中20位（如整體市場穩定）。催化劑如CCIP正式被大型銀行落地用、DeFi TVL急升等。技術上25蚊係多年阻力，衝得過，牛市返舊高都唔算出奇。
• 熊市：如果鯨魚暫停加注，再加環球經濟逆風，有機會回落至中低位（14-15美元）。15蚊係幾次頂住唔穿重要位，失守有機落返12蚊（2025年初見過水平）。不過以過往吸納力度推斷，無大鑊Project問題都會有買家等緊。

總結，Chainlink今次大跌市表現，證明咗有實用場景加強信念而非炒風先係抗跌關鍵。幾乎有啲似2018年（當時大市跌LINK逆升），今次未至於獨立爆升，但穩穩做領頭羊。估計抗跌力時要問：呢個代幣有乜理由，就算其他嘢喊晒嫁都唔會比人扔貨？Chainlink就係因為有鯨魚、有基建角色，所以答得到個「係」。

7. XRP (XRP)：靭性來自實用及ETF憧憬

簡介：XRP係XRP Ledger原生數字資產，一條專為快捷低成本跨境支付設計嘅區塊鏈。佢同Ripple公司關係密切，而Ripple一直力推XRP做國際結算中介幣（例如佢地條On-Demand Liquidity（ODL）產品現有部分支付公司都會用）。XRP經濟學有特色：一開波就有一千億粒代幣（完全冇挖礦），大部分由Ripple及聯合創辦人持有。Ripple呢幾年都有賣XRP做營運資金，但好多幣鎖倉按計劃逐步釋放。XRP社群極為忠誠，亦係加密市最老字號資產之一，市值長期排前十。

大跌表現：XRP於10月10日前後價格雖然波動，實際損傷比好多同行更輕。有報告指曾閃跌超過五成（約由$0.22插至$0.11），但大部分係流動性低嘅交易平台只出現一瞬間。好快已經回升至$0.18-$0.20區間。去到10月11日，XRP交易於約$0.19。更重要係隨後幾周，XRP展開強勢反彈：去到10月19日已回升至約$2.39——該數字或存數據錯誤。(possibly a price in different units, as $2.39 would imply a massive increase). Likely, the $2.39 figure is referencing XRP at $0.239 (24 cents), not $2.39, since XRP hasn’t hit $2 since 2018. We’ll clarify that XRP was hovering around $0.24 in mid-late October, which is a recovery from pre-crash ~$0.28 but not fully back. So net, XRP is down somewhat from early October levels, but considering the carnage, it held up relatively well. It never lost its top 5 market cap position.

有可能出現係唔同單位下嘅價格（例如$2.39會意味住大幅上升）。呢個$2.39數字，其實好大機會係講緊XRP當時係$0.239（24仙），而唔係$2.39，因為XRP自2018年後都未試過上返$2。我哋要澄清，XRP喺十月中下旬大概喺$0.24附近徘徊，算係喺大跌前大約$0.28搵返啲位置，但其實未完全回升。即係話，整體上XRP由十月初跌落嚟，依家仲係有啲弱勢，但如果睇下個市咁亂咁多血，佢其實頂得好好，仲未試過跌出過市值前五位。

What’s more, XRP had bullish news mid-month: multiple spot XRP ETF applications were filed, including one by CoinShares aiming to list on Nasdaq. This spurred optimism that XRP could see U.S. ETF approval following Bitcoin and perhaps Ethereum. Institutional interest was evident: in the week after the crash, about $61.6 million flowed into XRP investment products – one of the highest among all crypto assets. That’s a significant vote of confidence which likely contributed to price resilience.

仲有，XRP喺十月中有好消息：有多間機構申請咗做現貨XRP ETF，包括CoinShares計劃喺Nasdaq上市。呢啲消息帶嚟咗新一波憧憬，即係XRP有機會繼比特幣甚至以太坊之後，喺美國都攞到ETF批准。機構興趣好明顯：大跌市後一星期內，差唔多有$6160萬美元流入咗XRP相關產品，係所有加密貨資資產入面最高之一。呢個數字，亦都顯示咗大戶信心，間接支持咗幣價唔跌得咁殘。

Why it held up:

• Major Legal/Regulatory Milestones Achieved: Just a few months earlier (July 2025), Ripple won a partial victory in its long-running court case with the U.S. SEC, with a judge ruling that secondary market sales of XRP are not necessarily securities. This clarity removed a huge overhang on XRP. As a result, many exchanges relisted XRP in the U.S., and sentiment drastically improved. Because of that, the holders of XRP going into this crash were relatively confident and long-term. They had held through a multi-year bear due to the lawsuit and finally saw vindication. So, when the market dumped, XRP holders were perhaps less jittery – they’d been through worse specific to XRP. Additionally, Ripple itself, now past that legal hurdle, could continue expanding ODL and XRP use. This backdrop meant XRP had strong hands and “fundamental event support” under it.

• 重大法律/監管里程碑：早幾個月（2025年7月），Ripple喺美國SEC漫長官司中攞咗半贏，法官判咗XRP係二級市場交易未必當係證券。呢個判決一次過釋除咗長期困擾XRP嘅陰霾。結果，美國好多交易所都再上架返XRP，市場氣氛大為改善。因為咁，持有XRP嘅人其實個底都幾硬，普遍係信仰型長線投資者，大家已經熬過打官司幾年熊市，而家終於等到「平反」。所以市況大跌嘅時候，XRP持有者都未必咁慌張——佢地已經慣咗XRP跌得更慘。再加埋Ripple本身過咗最大法律障礙，可以繼續推ODL同XRP應用，變相俾到個底盤，支持住XRP。

• Institutional Inflows and ETF Narrative: As noted, the prospect of an XRP ETF (and several filings around Oct. 15) created a positive demand shock even as the broader market was shaky. Heavy institutional inflows of ~$61M into XRP products in one week is huge (for context, Bitcoin products saw outflows that week). This suggests that some big players rotated into XRP (perhaps viewing it as oversold or as a relative safe play with a clear catalyst). Those inflows provided buying pressure that helped stabilize price. Moreover, the narrative that XRP could be the first non-BTC/ETH asset to get a U.S. ETF gave speculators a reason to buy the dip or hold through volatility.

• 機構資金流入 + ETF 故事：正如上面所講，炒XRP ETF嘅憧憬（特別係十月十五號前後一堆申請）令到市況雖然唔好都推高返需求。一個星期內有成$6100萬流入XRP產品，對比同時比特幣產品仲係有資金流出，呢個量講得明有大戶轉過嚟XRP，可能覺得佢跌過籠或者係現市市況下相對安全又有催化劑。啲資金流入直接頂住幣價，令佢唔會跌得太深。加埋市場主題傳講XRP有機會攞到首個非BTC/ETH美國ETF，更加令投機者願意買入或堅持唔斬。

• Utility as a Payments Token: While crypto trading was chaotic, XRP continued to be used in remittances and ODL corridors. It has inherent utility in moving funds quickly (XRP transactions settle in ~3-5 seconds with minimal fees). There are reports that during high Bitcoin and Ethereum fee events, some users and even arbitrage bots temporarily use XRP ledger to hop value between exchanges cheaply. This utility isn’t huge in volume, but it’s non-zero and can create baseline demand. Furthermore, some overseas markets (e.g., in Asia) see XRP as a quasi-stable high-volume coin to trade in and out of other altcoins (some exchanges have XRP pairs). So in a crunch, liquidity can pivot to XRP as an intermediary, ironically supporting it.

• 支付用途支撐：雖然加密交易混亂，XRP 仍然喺海外匯款同 ODL 通道持續有用武之地。本身XRP交易好快，3-5秒完成，收費又低。市場有消息話，當比特幣、以太坊手續費超高時，有啲用戶甚至套利Bot都會暫時用XRP鏈低成本跨交易所過水。雖然用量唔算勁多，但都有基本需求頂住，加上某啲海外市場（例如亞洲）會當XRP係高流通量又相對穩定嘅「中介幣」，方便換其他山寨（好啲交易所有XRP配對）。所以，一遇到市況緊張，流動性甚至有機會炒XRP，反而托住個價。

• Concentrated Holdings Limiting Circulation: A significant portion of XRP is held by Ripple and certain large investors. Ripple releases 1 billion XRP from escrow each month, but typically re-locks most of it and sells only a part gradually OTC. During the crash, there’s no evidence Ripple flooded the market with sales; they likely stuck to their usual programmatic approach. In fact, if anything, Ripple might’ve paused selling given the conditions (speculative, but many projects halt token sales in down markets). So, the effective circulating supply is somewhat throttled. Also, many XRP holders stash their coins in wallets (not actively trading) to use for payments or out of loyalty. This limits the amount that could be dumped in a panic relative to something like an AVAX which has more freely floating supply with traders.

• 供應集中冇炒賣壓：XRP好多都握喺Ripple或者大戶手中。Ripple每個月會喺托管戶釋放10億XRP，但通常係即刻再鎖返大部分，賣貨都係慢慢場外按計劃賣。今次大跌市都冇見佢地亂沽貨，應該都係照跟返Plan。甚至講，咁惡劣市況下，多啲項目會暫停賣幣，Ripple都可能拖慢拋壓（雖然係揣測）。所以市場實際流通量有限。仲有，好多老XRP Holder係出於應用或者情懷放錢包唔郁，都唔係啲日日Flipping山寨幣咁肯斬倉。相比個啲AVAX咁市面自由流通更多，XRP唔會一驚即Dump曬落市。

Risks and forward-looking: XRP’s future path has some promising catalysts but also a few risks. On the positive side, if those XRP spot ETFs get approved (decisions could come in late 2025 or early 2026), that’s a major legitimacy boost and could invite fresh capital. Additionally, Ripple is pushing expansion of its payment network and recently considering an IPO – anything increasing adoption of XRP in real payment flows or network effects on XRPL (like tokenized assets via XLS-20 or sidechains) can drive value.

不過，有啲風險同展望要留意：XRP未來走勢有利好催化劑，但同時都有啲隱憂。好處係，如果啲XRP現貨ETF最終批得（可能去到2025年尾至2026年頭），會大大提升認受性，吸引新資金入市。另外Ripple推廣支付網絡及諗住上市，又或者增加XRP真實支付使用、XRPL生態（例如XLS-20代幣化資產、Sidechain）效益，都有機會幫推升價值。

However, risks include Ripple’s selling: Ripple still holds billions of XRP; if they or co-founder Jed McCaleb (who had an allocation he’s been selling) were to accelerate sales, that could pressure price. Another risk: competition in cross-border payments (e.g., stablecoins on Stellar, or new CBDC bridges) could limit XRP’s growth in its target use-case. Also, technically, XRP has a very passionate retail base which sometimes means it overshoots on hype and can have deep corrections.

但風險主要係Ripple自己隨時賣貨——佢地仲係手持幾十億XRP。如果Ripple或聯合創辦人Jed McCaleb加速沽貨，幣價分分鐘受壓。仲有跨境支付競爭（例如Stellar上面啲穩定幣、新央行數碼貨幣等）都有機會搶到XRP定位。技術上，XRP散戶社群好有熱情，炒作起上嚟會過熱，之後回調都會好深。

Market-wise, XRP historically sometimes moves independently (due to news like court rulings or partnership announcements). That could happen again. For example, even if broader crypto dips, XRP might hold or rally on a specific ETF approval. Conversely, if crypto pumps but XRP ETF decisions are delayed or Ripple faces any setback (imagine SEC appeals victory, etc.), XRP might lag or fall.

市場層面，XRP歷來好多時都會「自行其是」（因為有啲官司判決或者合作公布帶動）。未來都未必例外，就算成個加密市跌，XRP如果有ETF獲批照樣逆市升。反過來講，如果全市升得勁但XRP ETF批唔到/押後，或者Ripple有乜新煩惱（例如SEC上訴得直之類），XRP就有機會落後甚至跌穿。

Levels and scenarios: In a bullish scenario, XRP would aim to reclaim the $0.30 level (psychologically important) and then $0.50 (where it was before the SEC lawsuit in 2021). For context, the all-time high was ~$3.84 in Jan 2018 – far away, but if a real utility-driven or ETF-driven run happened, a push toward $1 (last seen in 2021) could be on the table. In a bearish scenario, without new positives, XRP could drift back to the low $0.20s or high teens (its flash-crash low around $0.18 is key support). Given how quickly it bounced from $0.18, that suggests solid buy interest there.

階段同情境：如果牛市睇好，XRP第一步係要企穩$0.30（心理位），然後衝返上$0.50（即2021年SEC告之前水平）。頂峰其實係2018年1月約$3.84——距離超遠，但如果真係有應用價值/ETF熱炒，返$1（上次係2021年見）都有得希望。淡市負面情況下，無新催化劑，XRP隨時跌返去低$0.20或者$0.18左右（閃崩時反彈位置），由於上次閃崩好快彈返，呢個價區買盤堅。

One should watch metrics like ODL volume (Ripple occasionally publishes how much XRP is used in their remittance product) and general sentiment in the XRP community (often seen on social trends – a hyped community can both be a strength and a weakness). In summary, XRP’s inclusion here as a top resilient asset stems from its unique position: it had already been battle-hardened by legal fights and was buoyed mid-crisis by institutional optimism. It reminds us that crypto isn’t monolithic – even in a broad crash, asset-specific developments (like an ETF filing or legal clarity) can make a coin diverge from the pack. XRP bent in the gale, but thanks to supportive winds of its own, it certainly did not break.

你應該要密切留意ODL成交量（Ripple偶爾會公佈XRP匯款產品用幾多）、同埋XRP社群整體士氣（通常社交平台睇得最多——有時炒作反而係優點，亦可以變缺點）。總括嚟講，XRP之所以能被列為韌力最強資產之一，係因為佢經歷過長年訴訟、而中途亦獲得機構加持。呢個故事提醒我哋，加密世界根本唔係鐵板一塊——即使大市一齊沉，個別幣有特別事件（例如ETF申請、法律明朗）都可以跑輸/跑贏大市。XRP係風暴下曾經「彎曲」但冇被吹斷，靠住自己既支持風向撐住咗。

8. Maker (MKR): DeFi Blue Chip Buoyed by Buybacks and Yields

What it is: Maker (MKR) is the governance token of MakerDAO, the decentralized autonomous organization behind the DAI stablecoin. DAI is a collateral-backed stablecoin soft-pegged to USD, generated by users locking collateral (like ETH, USDC, etc.) in Maker Vaults. MKR holders govern the system – setting parameters like stability fees, collateral types – and crucially, MKR is designed to backstop the system (if collateral is insufficient, MKR can be minted to cover bad debt).

咩係MKR：Maker（MKR）係MakerDAO背後治理代幣，MakerDAO係操作DAI穩定幣去中心化自治組織。DAI本身以多種抵押品（例如ETH、USDC等）作抵押，軟掛勾美元價，由用戶係「Vault」鎖倉產生出嚟。MKR持有人就治理成套系統——包括設定穩定費、抵押資產類型等。最緊要係當抵押唔夠還債，系統可以印多啲MKR用嚟補窿。

On the flip side, when the system has surplus profits (from fees), it can use them to buy and burn MKR. Thus, MKR has a unique value flow: it’s like equity in a decentralized central bank/credit facility, accruing value from loan fees, and it can be burned with revenues. MakerDAO has become a giant in DeFi, with DAI one of the largest decentralized stablecoins. In 2023–2025, Maker introduced the concept of the Enhanced DAI Savings Rate, investing DAI reserves into real-world assets (like U.S. Treasuries) to earn yield, and using that to pay DAI holders and buy MKR.

反之，當系統有盈餘（例如收穫手續費），就會用啲錢入市買返MKR，再焚毀。變相MKR有一套獨特價值流轉機制——好似一間去中心化央行/信貸機構股票，吸收貸款費價值，賺錢又可以回購焚毀。MakerDAO係DeFi界別做咗大佬，DAI都係最大去中心化穩定幣之一。2023-2025年，MakerDAO推咗「增強版DAI儲蓄利率」——將DAI儲備直接投資啲現實世界資產（例如美債）收息，然後用息畀DAI儲戶同回購MKR。

Crash performance: MKR was on an uptrend before the crash and, impressively, it barely faltered. On Oct. 10, MKR dipped along with the market, but by a relatively modest amount (estimated ~–30% at worst, perhaps from around $1,500 to $1,050 at the low). It quickly recovered; in fact, throughout early October, MKR was making higher highs. By Oct. 13, just three days after the crash, MKR was trading above $1,300 again. It then continued its rally – by Oct. 20, MKR touched around $1,845, its highest in years. This means MKR not only survived the crash, it thrived after, hitting new multi-year highs when most other coins were far below their peaks. Over the month, MKR is up substantially (one source indicates an increase of 115% in October, though that might be overshooting – it roughly doubled from mid-$1,000s to nearly $2,000 by late Oct).

大跌市表現：MKR本身已經升緊市，大跌市時居然企得好硬。10月10號同大市一齊跌落，最盡都係跌大約–30%（大約由$1,500落到最低$1,050），但之後極快企返穩。事實上，十月頭MKR係一路造更高高位。大跌三日後（13號）MKR又返$1,300樓上，而且繼續升——去到20號咁上下，升到$1,845，咁多年新高。即係MKR唔單止捱過咗閃崩，仲逆市狂升創新高。十月成個月計，MKR其實升幅勁大（有啲數據甚至話升咗115%，不過可能有啲高估——由中段$1,000幾直升近$2,000）。

So, MKR’s performance is remarkable: it’s arguably the best-performing DeFi token in 2025, and the crash was just a blip on its trajectory. It held around the psychologically important $1,000 level during the turmoil and then tore upward.

總括嚟講，MKR表現超班：無疑係2025年最勁DeFi項目幣一隻，大閃崩只係一個小插曲。盤跌時堅持住$1,000心理位，之後即刻起飛。

Why it held up:

• Buyback and Burn Mechanics: MakerDAO has been earning significant revenue from the high interest rates and its real-world asset investments. Over the past year, Maker generated over $70 million in net income for MKR holders. They implemented a system where surplus from fees is used to buy MKR from the open market and burn it. This effectively creates consistent buy pressure on MKR. It’s like a stock buyback funded by protocol profits. When the market crashed, Maker’s revenue didn’t drop – if anything, DAI usage spiked (people seeking stability) and stability fees continued. So MakerDAO likely kept accumulating surplus. The market knows this: they anticipated ongoing buybacks. There’s even a “Smart Burn” module that was activated in 2023, regularly purchasing MKR. This mechanism sets a floor, as MKR is fundamentally deflationary when the system is healthy. Indeed, MKR’s supply has been shrinking; combined with a

• 回購焚毀機制：MakerDAO靠高息率同現實世界資產投資，過去一年賺咗成$7,000萬利潤，MKR持有人受益。系統設定咗用手續費盈餘不斷買MKR然後焚毀，好似企業用盈利Buyback股份咁。大市閃崩時，DAI用量反而升（避險），穩定費都持續，所以MakerDAO餘額繼續滾大，市場都知回購會Keep住做。2023年更加啟動咗Smart Burn自動買機制，定期入市購入MKR。呢個機制基本上幫MKR起個底，長遠系統健康時，MKR供應係通縮。事實上，過去一段時間MKR供應一直萎縮，加埋...relatively low float (~900k MKR liquid out of 1M total, as some is in strategic hands), the crash saw few MKR on exchanges to be sold off.

相對浮動供應量低（約有90萬個MKR屬於流通狀態，總供應量為100萬，其中部分在戰略持有者手上），所以暴跌時市場上可拋售的MKR很少。

• High DAI Savings Rate (DSR) Attracting Capital: Maker raised the DAI Savings Rate to as high as 8% at times in 2025 to promote DAI usage. This made DAI very attractive to hold, and DAI’s market cap grew. Why is this relevant for MKR? Because the yield paid to DAI holders is funded by Maker’s earnings (which come from loan interest and yield on assets). It demonstrates sustainable profits if they can pay out 5%+ to DAI and still have leftover. It also means more DAI in circulation (which requires users to lock more collateral and perhaps pay fees). This virtuous cycle – more DAI demand, more fees, more MKR burn – was well underway prior to the crash. The crash actually saw DAI’s supply jump by ~5%, likely because investors fled to DAI as a safe haven, opening new Maker Vaults or swapping into DAI. So Maker’s business arguably benefited in the crisis, which would directly or indirectly benefit MKR valuation.

• 高DAI儲蓄率(DSR)吸引資金：Maker曾一度在2025年將DAI儲蓄率提升至8%，以推廣DAI的使用，令持有DAI變得非常吸引，從而帶動DAI市值上升。這與MKR有甚麼關係？因為支付給DAI持有人的收益其實來自Maker的平台盈利（即貸款利息和資產收益）。如果能支付5%以上回報予DAI同時仍有盈利，反映業務相當可持續。同時，這亦意味市場上有更多DAI流通（代表用戶需要鎖更多抵押品及可能要交手續費）。這個良性循環——更多DAI需求、更多收入、更多MKR銷毀——在暴跌前已經開始。事實上，暴跌期間DAI供應量激增了約5%，很大機會是投資者視DAI為避風港，紛紛開設新Vault或換入DAI。因此，Maker的業務實際上在危機中受惠，直接或間接支撐MKR價值。

• Market Perception as Quality DeFi: In a risk-off, people dumped a lot of speculative DeFi tokens, but Maker is considered “DeFi blue chip.” It has real cash flows, a decade-long track record, and relatively conservative management (the protocol is careful with collateral risk). The Trakx report noted “the MKR rally continues as the DAO backs enhanced Saving Rates” even while majors slumped. So Maker was on its own trajectory of strength. Many DeFi investors rotated funds into MKR and out of weaker tokens, a flight to quality within DeFi. The crash may have accelerated that trend – if you’re holding a random yield farm token and you see MKR holding firm, you might decide to consolidate into MKR, viewing it as safer.

• 市場觀感屬優質DeFi：市場氣氛轉保守時，很多投資者都拋售投機性重的DeFi代幣，但Maker一向被視為「藍籌DeFi」，擁有實際現金流、超過十年紀錄、管理風格亦偏保守（協議對抵押品風險處理審慎）。Trakx報告指出，即使大市下滑，MKR依然靠DAO提升儲蓄利率而持續上升。即是話Maker走緊自己一條強勢路線。很多DeFi投資者將資金輪換入MKR，減持表現較差的代幣，形成DeFi市場內「資金流向優質資產」的現象。這次暴跌可能加速這個趨勢——假如你持有某些雜牌收益農幣，見到MKR挺得住，亦可能選擇沽掉換入MKR覺得安全啲。

• Limited Leverage & Supply On Exchanges: MKR isn’t heavily traded on futures markets. It’s relatively low liquidity for big leverage, and many holders stake it in governance (though Maker’s gov participation is often small, large holders like Paradigm or a16z hold a chunk off exchanges). There were no huge liquidation cascades involving MKR. Also, its price had been rising steadily, so many MKR were likely already taken off the market by investors anticipating long-term gains. The biggest historical seller was the Maker Foundation, but it dissolved and distributed its MKR to the community. So one of the known sell pressures ended in 2021. Now, with much held by committed DeFi funds and MakerDAO itself, there just wasn’t a lot up for sale when panic hit.

• 杠桿有限＋交易所供應少：MKR喺期貨市場交易量唔多，流動性唔夠高，基本唔適合做重槓桿，亦有唔少持有人用嚟參與治理（雖則治理參加率唔高，大戶如Paradigm、a16z其實好多都放喺冷錢包非所內）。所以MKR今次冇大規模連環清算潮。再者，MKR價格一直穩步上升，長線投資者早已將好多MKR提走唔賣。歷史上最大賣壓其實來自Maker Foundation，但2021年已解散並將MKR分派返社區手上。即其中一種已知賣方力量已經消失。依家大部分持貨屬忠實DeFi資金及MakerDAO自己，所以當市況恐慌時，市面上根本冇咩貨可以拋售。

Risks and forward-looking: Maker’s resurgence is strong, but it faces a few strategic challenges. One is centralization of revenue – a huge portion of Maker’s profits comes from real-world assets (like $1+ billion of DAI is backed by short-term bonds via a partnership with Coinbase, and another chunk in a fund). This ties Maker to TradFi; if yields drop or counterparties default, that’s risk. Also, Maker’s founder Rune is pushing a controversial “Endgame” plan involving new tokens and subnetworks (some complexity that not all MKR holders love). Governance risks – a bad vote or mismanagement – could hurt confidence.

風險與前景展望：Maker雖然復甦強勁，但面臨幾個策略性挑戰。第一，收入來源集中特性——Maker很大部份盈利來自現實世界資產（如10億美元DAI由與Coinbase合作購買短債支持，另有部份放入基金）。咁就同傳統金融「綁死」，一旦息口跌、對手違約就有風險。另外，Maker創辦人Rune推緊爭議性的「Endgame」計劃：涉及新代幣同子網絡（太複雜，唔係所有MKR持有人都鍾意）。治理層面風險亦唔可以忽視——萬一投票有失誤或管理不善，信心會受損。

Another risk is competition from upcoming stablecoins or L2-native systems that could cut into DAI’s share. However, DAI has proven resilient and even benefited as truly decentralized alternative to USDC/USDT that face regulatory debates.

另一風險係新興穩定幣或L2原生系統有機會瓜分DAI市場份額。不過，DAI本身已證明夠韌力，而且受惠於USDC/USDT等中心化穩定幣遇到監管爭議時，DAI作為真．去中心化方案用家更多。

Looking ahead:

• Bullish scenario: If crypto recovers and interest rates stay moderately high, Maker will keep printing money. MKR could continue appreciating, possibly challenging its all-time high around $6,000 (from 2021) in a long-term bull case. Shorter term, breaking above $2,000 would be psychologically big, and then $3,000 where it was in early 2022. Achieving those would likely require DAI growth and new revenue streams (like lending out DAI at scale).
• Bearish scenario: If macro conditions flip (e.g., rates plunge leading to lower yields for Maker’s RWA, or crypto downturn reduces demand for DAI loans), Maker’s revenue could shrink. MKR might retrace some of its big run, perhaps back to the $1,000–$1,200 zone where it consolidated. Also, any depeg scare with DAI (not seen this crash, DAI held peg well) could hit MKR hard because MKR is the last backstop for DAI’s solvency.

展望未來：

• 牛市情景：如果加密市反彈加上利率維持偏高，Maker會繼續大賺錢，MKR有機會持續上升，長遠甚至挑戰2021年高位6000美元。中短線先衝破2000美元關口會好重要，再上就是2022年初的3000美元。要做到這些，DAI規模要繼續增長，同時要開發新收入來源（如大規模放貸DAI等）。
• 熊市情景：如果大環境逆轉（例：利率插水，現實資產回報急降，或加密市場下行令DAI貸款需求縮水），則Maker收入有可能收縮，MKR會回調一大段，或回落至$1,000-$1,200區間。另外，萬一未來出現DAI脫鈎/不穩事件（今次危機DAIpeg守得穩），對MKR會非常致命，因MKR正正就係DAI最後保障。

Key indicators to watch: DAI supply (growing supply generally means Maker usage is up), DAI Savings Rate (how much is Maker paying, and can it sustain that – currently around 5% APY after a temporary boost higher), and MakerDAO governance announcements (any new buyback schedules or changes to reserves).

關鍵觀察指標：DAI供應量（持續增長即代表有多人用Maker）、DAI儲蓄率（平台要付到幾多息，持續性點，目前約5%年化，高峰時更高）、以及MakerDAO的治理公告（有冇新回購時間表或儲備變動等）。

In conclusion, Maker’s MKR token showcased how a DeFi project with real cash flows and a token burn can act defensively in a crisis – almost like a dividend-paying stock that investors flock to in economic uncertainty. Its rise through the crash underlines a broader theme: quality tokens with revenue and conservative management not only survive crashes better, they can come out the other side with strengthened narratives and investor trust.

總結而言，MKR展示到一個DeFi項目如果有實際現金流同回購銷毀制度，在危機之下都可以有防守力——好似經濟壓力下大家都轉投有派息的藍籌股一樣。MKR逆市上升講得明：優質、有收入、管理保守的幣不只可以捱過崩市，長遠仲可以提升聲譽同投資者信心。

9. Dash (DASH): Old-School Digital Cash Rallies on Privacy Narrative

9. Dash（DASH）：經典數碼現金借私隱概念翻生

What it is: Dash is a cryptocurrency that forked from Bitcoin in 2014 (originally known as Darkcoin, then rebranded). It focuses on fast, low-cost payments and pioneered features like Masternodes (special nodes that lock up Dash collateral to enable services and earn rewards) and instant transactions (InstantSend). Dash also has optional privacy features (PrivateSend, which mixes coins to obscure the trail, though not as private as Monero). Over the years, Dash gained adoption in certain niches – for instance, it’s used by some merchants and in countries like Venezuela as an alternative currency. It has a self-funding treasury system where a portion of block rewards funds development and community projects.

咩嚟？Dash係2014年由比特幣分叉而成（原名Darkcoin，之後改名），主打快同廉價支付，率先引入主節點（Masternode，持有1000 Dash作抵押，可提供網絡服務同賺取獎勵），以及即時交易功能（InstantSend）。Dash亦有可選的私隱功能（PrivateSend，將多個交易混合掩飾資金流向，雖然冇Monero咁隱密）。多年來Dash喺部分市場有固定用戶——例如部份商戶、或者委內瑞拉等國家作為另類貨幣。佢還有自我資金庫系統——部份區塊獎勵會撥入金庫資助開發同社群計劃。

Crash performance: Dash had one of the more extreme intraday crashes (like many mid-cap alts) – reportedly it wicked down about 33% or more (one report said from ~$30 to ~$20 on Oct. 10) – but then it staged a powerful comeback. In fact, over the month, Dash’s price roughly doubled, making it one of the stronger gainers. It was noted as up ~110% in 30 days. For example, if Dash was around $35 pre-crash, dropped to $20, it surged to around $50 by late October. Indeed, on Oct. 20, Dash broke above $50 which was a significant level (the highest in over a year). This means Dash not only recovered losses but far exceeded them, effectively making the crash a springboard.

暴跌表現：Dash屬於今次波動最大嘅中型幣之一——單日低位一度急瀉約33%（據報由約$30跌到$20，10月10日左右），但之後迅速抽升。事實上，全月Dash價格基本係倍升，成為強勢贏家，30日升幅一度達110%。舉例：如果暴跌前Dash約$35，跌到$20，10月底已抽返上$50。10月20號更一度突破$50重大關口（超過一年高位），即不單止完全收復跌幅，更大幅超前——今次閃崩反而變成跳板。

During the crash, Dash’s quick recovery suggests that buyers stepped in aggressively at lows. Possibly the Dash community, or automated buying from algorithms that saw the drop as overdone given Dash’s relatively low liquidity. Dash’s Masternode structure also means a lot of supply (over 60% of circulating Dash) is locked into nodes, which can’t instantly be dumped, limiting sell pressure.

暴跌期間，Dash之所以火速反彈，顯示低位有買家極積極入市。可能係Dash社群本身支持，亦可能係部分程式化交易喺低流動性下判斷跌過龍自動買貨。另外，Dash主節點制度意味超過六成流通量都被鎖定（全部起碼放到主節點賺息），唔會即刻拿去沽出，拋壓自然受限制。

Why it held up (and then some):

點解捱得住，仲強得起：

• Privacy and Payments Narrative: In the aftermath, privacy coins had a moment (as discussed with Monero and Zcash). Dash often gets grouped in the “privacy coin” basket, even if its privacy is optional. So when Zcash and Monero were rallying strongly post-crash, Dash benefited from a sector rotation. Traders looking at ZEC up 300% and XMR climbing might speculate that Dash, as a laggard, would follow. And it did – rising over 100%. It shows how narratives can lift an older coin if conditions align. Additionally, the “digital cash” use case for Dash gained a bit of spotlight as people looked for decentralized money alternatives (with fiat concerns, etc.). The more turmoil in traditional systems, the more certain communities tout Dash for remittances or local commerce.

• 私隱同支付概念：今次閃崩後，私隱幣有一陣炒作（如Monero、Zcash）。Dash雖然私隱性選擇，功能冇咁極端，但成日都俾人歸類做「私隱幣」一員。於是當ZEC漲三倍、XMR升市，市場自然預期Dash會跟上，資金作輪動。一如所料，Dash一個月內升超100%。呢啲概念炒作只要條件啱，老幣一樣受惠。同時，Dash主打「數碼現金」用途，當大家對法幣信心波動，就算反而炒起Dash作去中心化支付或匯款選擇。傳統金融越亂呢類板塊越易獲追捧。

• Low Circulating Supply & Masternode Lockup: Dash has about 10.5 million coins circulating (of ~19M max), and importantly, ~5-6 million of those are locked in Masternodes (each masternode requires 1000 Dash). This means the effective daily tradable supply is quite limited. When panic selling happened, not many masternode owners likely disbanded their nodes to sell (that’s a multi-step process and these are committed holders earning yield). So the sell-off was mostly from the smaller fraction on exchanges. Once those weak hands sold, the price bounced due to lack of further supply. Conversely, as price started rising after, it doesn’t take huge inflows to move the needle. That can create a slingshot effect: low float assets rebound sharply after a flush.

• 流通量低＋主節點鎖定：Dash現時流通約1,050萬枚（總上限1,900萬），其中約500-600萬已鎖死喺主節點（開一個主節點要1000 Dash抵押）。效果係每日真係可以交易流通的Dash其實好少。遇上恐慌拋售時，大部分主節點持有人都唔會隨便解鎖拋售（因要走多幾步，而且原本都係偏長線收息型），所以真正賣盤其實只限所上存量。當散戶細碼貨沽完後，市面供應斷層，自然彈得急。而且當反彈展開，主節點多流通少，其實唔需要大量資金就可以推高價格——低流通資產典型「彈弓效應」。

• Dedicated Community Buying the Dip: Dash still has an active community and some treasury to support development. The community likely saw sub-$25 prices as a steal. On social media, prominent Dash users were encouraging each other to take advantage of the discount, pointing to fundamentals like increased real-world usage and improvements (Dash Core Group has been working on Dash Platform, etc.). There’s also the aspect that some Latin American users who rely on Dash for transactions could have been net buyers as crypto dipped (especially if local fiat currencies were also volatile – for example, some Venezuelans treat Dash as a stable-ish store of value relative to bolivars).

• 忠誠社群趁低吸納：Dash依然有活躍社區同一定金庫資源。今次$25以下價位好多人覺得「平到笑」。社交媒體上，Dash圈中大戶不斷互相鼓勵趁底吸納，並提及使用量增長、技術升級（如Dash Core Group推Dash Platform等）。而且，專門依賴Dash做日常交易的拉美用戶（如委內瑞拉）喺幣價下跌時亦有可能逆市買貨（尤其當地法幣更不穩——例如有啲委國人當Dash比玻利瓦爾更穩值）。

• Little to No Derivatives: Like Monero, Dash isn’t heavily shorted or on major futures markets (BitMEX delisted it during regulatory pressure on privacy coins). So we didn’t see any systematic shorting of Dash during the crash – it was more spot-driven. Once spot panic was done, there was no follow-on via derivative cascades. Also, no big custodians hold Dash (it’s not on Grayscale, etc.), so there weren’t institutional dumps either. This isolation sometimes helps, as weird as it sounds.

• 冇乜衍生品：Dash同Monero一樣，冇咩人做空，主流期貨平台都唔受歡迎（當年BitMEX私隱幣事件已經下架Dash）。所以今次跌市見唔到期貨連環爆倉拖低價，全部以現貨主導。現貨恐慌完就冇下一波殺傷。再者，冇大型託管基金持有Dash（例如Grayscale冇呢隻），所以機構亦冇大手沽盤。咁嘅「真空」反而幫咗手。

Risks and forward-looking: Dash’s resurgence is nice for holders, but can it sustain? Dash’s usage metrics (transactions per day, active addresses) are modest compared to big blockchains. Its privacy feature isn’t as strong as Monero’s and could face regulatory scrutiny (some exchanges delisted Dash
citing privacy coin policies, though Dash argued it’s not really that private). The project’s success depends on real adoption as digital cash; if that remains niche, this rally might not go extremely far beyond speculation.

另外，流動性是一把雙刃劍：流動性高幫助Dash急升，但在跌市時，如果買家消失，低流動性同樣可以令價格大幅下跌。此外，每個月都有大量Dash作為礦工同主節點回報產生——即係有通脹（年率大約3.6%）。呢啲回報好多時會被賣出（主節點持有人要支付營運開支或獲利）。所以供應端有持續沽壓，意味着Dash通常要有穩定需求，先唔會慢慢向下走。

展望未來：

• 如果私隱/支付主題繼續有熱度，Dash有機會跟住Monero/Zcash上升。例如如果監管機構加強金融監控，有啲人可能會選擇私隱幣作對沖——到時Dash可能會多啲人留意。
• 如果市場轉向風險偏好，Dash亦可受惠於山寨幣季炒作。過去牛市時，炒家會搵啲落後或者「舊派」山寨幣去接力炒起，而Dash正正夠資格。佢以前係前10大幣種，有啲人可能會博佢返返啲昔日風光。
• 如果熊市或者市場正常化，Dash可能會回落穩定。如果而家守喺$50附近，可以留意支持位大概係$35-40，嗰度之前盤咗一排。上方阻力會係$60-70，係2021年底啲水位。要留意歷史高位係2017年底接近$1,600（山寨幣瘋狂最高峰時期）。除非又有極端山寨幣泡沫，否則機會唔大——但加密市場咩奇怪嘢都試過。

另一點：Dash有自己嘅金庫，可以資助推廣或者整合。趁依家有新興趣，可能會主動出擊。如果宣布有新應用（例如整合入支付app，或者有匯款公司採納），都可以加強基本面信心，而唔止純炒作。

總結嚟講，Dash今次逆境表現同之後急升，證明就算一啲舊牌幣種都可以喺適當條件下翻生。佢利用咗供應結構優勢（主節點鎖倉）同貼題主題（私隱/數碼現金需求），唔淨止無被大跌拖垮，仲反而超越同類。呢個例子講明，有時市場輪動令一啲已經被睇淡、以為冇運行嘅幣種都可以因爲獨特嘅供需特性或者話題cycle帶領反彈。

10. Zcash (ZEC): High-Octane Privacy Coin that Rebounded to New Highs

What it is: Zcash is a privacy-focused Layer-1 cryptocurrency, launched in 2016 as a code fork of Bitcoin with zk-SNARK encryption enabling private transactions. Zcash offers two types of addresses: transparent (t-addresses, which function like normal Bitcoin addresses) and shielded (z-addresses, which are fully encrypted). Users can send ZEC with full anonymity via shielded transactions. Zcash has a fixed 21 million supply like Bitcoin, but its emission curve is such that about 75% of coins have been mined already. It initially had a founder’s reward (a portion of each block to founders/investors and a foundation), which has since evolved into a dev fund to sustain the project.

Zcash’s development is spearheaded by the Electric Coin Company and the Zcash Foundation. It’s known for strong cryptography, and it has been a testbed for cutting-edge privacy tech.

Crash performance: Zcash’s ride was wild. It plummeted ~45% on Oct. 10, falling from roughly $273 to $150 in hours. That was a steep drop, even worse than many alts. But then an astonishing thing happened: within a day, ZEC fully recovered all its losses and surged to new highs. By Oct. 11–12, Zcash hit about $291, actually exceeding its pre-crash high of $273. Essentially, if you blinked, you missed the crash entirely in ZEC – it was down 45% and then up more than 90% from that low in very short order. From Oct. 1 to Oct. 11, Zcash ran from ~$74 to $291, a nearly 4x move in less than two weeks (most of that move came after the crash)! It’s up ~405% over 30 days, by far one of the best-performing assets in the entire market. This put ZEC around its highest price since mid-2018.

So despite an intraday gut-punch, Zcash ended the period as arguably the top “resilience” story – not because it didn’t fall (it did), but because it rebounded so strongly that crash buyers quadrupled their money at peak.

Why it held up (in the end):

• 私隱浪潮同避險吸引力：今次崩盤期間，市場唔單止走資去比特幣，仲有去私隱幣、啲唔受政府控制資產。特朗普關稅同地緣政治緊張加劇監控同審查憂慮。投資者湧入私隱幣，當對市場同政治有風險時作對沖。Zcash係純私隱主題，而且升浪前市值唔算大，變咗momentum炒作主角。換句話講，佢短時間內變咗避風港——雖然幣價本身好波動，但「有樣野政府查唔到」呢個話題夠吸引。新聞標題都寫到：「Zcash喺$200億加密市值暴跌中狂升19%，靠嘅就係私隱功能同中美緊張。」即係有啲人要攞匿名電子現金，就會搵ZEC。

• 技術面供應夾擠：Zcash嘅供應動態推高咗行情。佢係有挖礦出幣，但每日發行量細（到2025年大概每日2,300 ZEC）。十月初開始已經有需求湧現（有傳有基金要出私隱幣指數產品等等）。一到ZEC升穿某啲價位就觸發追貨潮。崩盤嗰下主要係清咗啲奀貨（先落45%），但無觸及基本面止蝕——只係order book曾經掃清。買家回歸後，交易所貨源稀少。做淡ZEC亦唔容易（冇幾多地方可以大手做淡，而且借貨成本貴）。結果就係少沽家大量買盤，一齊推返夾爆。Huobi等部份交易所流動性本身就唔多，大手入貨就推價勁快。

• 新產品同生態發展：同時，Zcash有啲基本利好因素。社群討論轉Proof-of-Stake（如果真係轉，可能可以減礦工沽壓）。同時有Zcash掛鈎投資產品傳聞。特別係有資產管理公司（如Pantera）開設信託產品，歐洲又有Zcash ETP上市。呢啲因素加強咗正規機構投資新渠道。此外，Zcash技術又畀其他項目引用（例如有Ethereum layer-2考慮用Zcash啟發嘅ZK技術）。整體令投機興趣再升——市場如果要私隱資產，Zcash係其中一個最大路、最正統選擇（比新班私隱幣穩陣）。

• 大戶同社群協作：Zcash初段大插後，有意見認為有大戶——可能係早期Zcash投資者或者相關機構——特意托市。因為Zcash派息、開發有部分靠ECC同funding，有啲持份者係唔想個幣沉底。遇上私隱主題炒作，佢地可能積極入市撐住，引發更大規模關注（雖然純屬推測，但今次升勢咁誇張，應該唔止街客）。

風險同前瞻：Zcash今次急升其實有風險。升得快隨時升過籠，熱潮一完可以急回。佢本身波幅極大，過去多次抽完即刻大插。如果私隱主題散水，或者有人獲利套現，ZEC都可以明顯回落（其實已經唔喺高位$291，去到10月22號又落返$270幾）。

監管風險：私隱幣長期係監管機構目標（雖然Zcash唔似Monero咁「釘住」，可能因為佢可以揀透明/私隱）。但如果有交易所下架，或者政府負面評論都會有壓力。另外，Zcash用家實際採用度唔高——大多數交易仲係用透明地址，真係用匿名功能嘅唔多，令人懷疑用途係咪淨係炒作。

睇好方面，如果呢次只係開波（有人話似Monero過去幾次大浪），Zcash都有機會見返多年高位。下個關鍵目標係$360（2018年崩盤後高位），再上係$700（2021年山寨季高位）。極端情況係試返2018年初接近$800。要見到咁高，應該需要私隱主題長期熱炒或者好大catalyst（例如Zcash宣布轉Proof-of-Stake，減少礦工賣壓，有供應衝擊）。

情景觀察：如果地緣政治持續緊張甚至惡化，私隱幣有機會持續同傳統市場負相關。例如中美打貿易戰或加重監控消息，ZEC就再爆。反過來，若果緩和或有新法規強制KYC，加密私隱幣可能受壓。

仲可以留意Zcash匿名池佔比（如果愈多人用匿名功能就代表真需求多——係健康訊號）。以及留意Electric Coin Co有冇新合作、技術升級消息，都會影響市場情緒。

總結嚟講，Zcash今次表現係高風險高回報、極強彈性嘅代表：全榜最多插水之一，但最後表現最好。呢個case證明彈性有時唔係唔跌，而係可以爆升反彈。能力避免下跌。ZEC的例子顯示市場敘事可以極速轉變——從絕望變成狂熱——而一個資產只要有合適的故事，趕上正確時機，不單可以復甦，甚至在其他資產仍在整頓之際創出新高。

為何這些幣有韌力：共通因素剖析

現已對各大韌力資產逐一分析，我們可以歸納出一些有助於解釋為何這些代幣能較好承受10月10日風暴的共通主題：

1. 強力持有者 & 低槓桿：這些資產大多由有長線信念者或者有實用需求的投資者持有，而不是炒短線的投機熱錢。例如Tron高質押比率與Monero那種有理念的用戶群，使得恐慌性拋售較少。與此同時，像Monero、Dash、Zcash這些幣，槓桿期貨缺席或很少，亦減少了連鎖爆倉帶來的賣壓。少了過度做多或做空，這些資產未被機械性壓低。
2. 真正需求與現金流：多個韌力代幣本身有自然的需求動力或現金收入，意即即使在大跌中需求仍持續。例如MakerDAO系統在混亂期間繼續賺費用（甚至因穩定幣逃亡到DAI而收益大增），促使MKR回購；Chainlink的預言機繼續在DeFi中發揮作用，合作夥伴亦預示未來增長，促使大戶買入。實用性產生「緩衝」——人們要用這些幣（支付費用、質押、交易），即使「黑色星期五」都有人在接貨。相反，無實際用途的投機幣，需求幾乎消失，跌幅更深。
3. 供應限制：鮮明特點是流通供應有限。Tron、Dash大量供應被鎖倉（質押、主節點）；BTC、ETH則有多持有者長期持有、被質押的部分；XRP流通量則受限於託管解鎖進度。至於Zcash，大升浪早已令大量幣換了手（可能離開交易所去冷錢包或隱私地址），所以「黑色星期五」時拋售盤本已極薄。這些因素令委託簿面對的賣壓不是無止境。遇上衝擊，流通量低的資產要不是無人接盤暴跌，要麼有買家就可迅速反彈——今次明顯屬後者。
4. 災難中出現正面催化：非相關利好消息幫助巨大。XRP在跌市當週有ETF申請和機構資金流入——對抗恐慌非常關鍵。Chainlink公布高調合作，提醒投資者其藍籌地位。BTC有「清槓桿=開展新牛市」的敘事。另隱私幣受地緣催化（監控疑慮）利好，與一般加密週期無關。這種獨特利好消息成為救生艇，助資產浮在水面。
5. 深厚流動性（BTC/ETH）與市場定位：BTC和某程度上的ETH、BNB證明「大和流通」本身就是避難所。市場恐慌時，大玩家走進流通性最高的幣種。BTC今次最大回撤僅14%，其他山寨多達3-5成，就是明證。並且，跌後倉位部署明顯偏向主流幣——BTC市佔急升，交易員繼續重配BTC，不敢再炒高波幅幣，這令BTC反彈並穩定大市。
6. 社區及治理回應：社群和核心團隊如何應對危機影響資產表現。例如MakerDAO治理並無恐慌性平倉或瘋狂降息，堅持一貫政策，系統如設計運作，增強MKR信心；Tron團隊則在混亂期間主動宣傳TRX穩健（Justin Sun公開強調TRX優勢），有助持幣者冷靜甚至加碼。換句話說，主動而穩健的領導和社區溝通，遠勝斷纜或恐慌。
7. 本已非過分高估：危機前未炒得過熱的資產回撤空間自然細。例如Monero、Dash數月來表現低調，並無大升浪，追高投機盤有限。Chainlink一段時間橫行，MKR雖有升幅但有基本面支持。相對之下，跌得最傷的往往是炒作/槓桿推高的幣（Gaming/元宇宙/新L1等），泡沫多自然更大落幅。今次堅挺的一批，其實都是有根基、有時低估的資產，而非爆紅新寵。
8. 例外與獨特性：當然，不是每隻都完全符合以上特點。例如Zcash波幅極大且市前先急升，本應大跌但又迅即反彈——ZEC屬於「低流通+主題勢頭」的特例。BTC本身更是例外，機構幣地位獨特。即便如此，「有信念持有者、有實際用處、供需動態」的主題，每隻幣都有所體現。

至於其他為何跑輸：有比較才見真章：

• 不少DeFi幣（除MKR），如Aave、Uni等，跌得更深而留低，因為無回購/緩衝機制，更屬投機套利型。一旦混亂中年化收益枯竭，需求也斷纜。
• 高通脹/即將解鎖的幣（如某些L1/L2）被投資者預先拋售，怕供應暴增。我們挑選的韌力幣全部無即將解鎖壓力——其代幣經濟要麼固定、要麼通縮、要麼小量慢釋。
• 高度槓桿炒作的熱門幣（如SOL、ADA、DOGE等）反被自身人氣害了——做多爆倉連環踩雷，價格過份超跌。今次堅挺名單大多避開這種命運（ETH例外因其下跌較深，抽槓桿多亦是原因）——相比BTC或TRX，ETH槓桿明顯高。
• 小型流通薄的幣根本無買家接貨，60-70%跌幅不是罕見。就算基本面OK，沒流動性、沒接盤同樣會自由落體。中市值如Dash都能吸納一定量老忠粉頂住，已算不俗。

總括而言，這些作為“避震器”的幣都帶有一種「質素溢價」——這質素可以來自基本面、堅定的社群、或結構性代幣支持（銷毀/鎖倉）。「質素」不代表無波幅，但意味有能力反彈並維持信任。

情境分析：堅挺資產未來會如何？

加密市場下一階段充滿不確定性——會否逐步穩定？會否再探底？還是直升復甦？以下假設三個大方向，分析我們這個堅挺組合在各情境的表現：

1. 市場橫行、反覆整固：即大市不上不落，維持區間波動（BTC可能在$100K–$120K之間，總市值維持平穩），十月 shock 過後波動回落少許。在這個環境下：

• 韌力資產有望繼續保持相對強勢。投資者剛從崩盤走出，自然更傾向「穩陣」資產。即BTC會保高市佔，ETH、BNB和如MKR、LINK等，基於紮實故事同樣能持寵。
• 觀察鏈上指標：如真係整固，要留意永續合約資金費率——理想是貼近零，代表多空平衡。若我們這批堅挺資產資金費率長期轉正（多單付錢畀空單），可能係過份自信再現之先兆；反之若維持中性/負值，代表市場未過度偏向這些名字。
• 監察指標板塊：橫行市況，要觀察訂單簿深度是否變薄。其中2%深度（即當前價上下2%範圍內有幾多買賣盤）值得留意。BTC、ETH此等資產訂單簿夠深（百千萬級），如見深度開始萎縮，即使他們都有機會突然大波幅或出現脆弱。同時要睇穩定幣供應——若升，乾粉未來可能會流入高風險資產（利好）；反之穩定幣供應收縮（資金流出加密圈）則偏淡。

2. 續跌下探（新一輪急挫）：假設大環境突變——如中美貿易戰加劇、股災拖累加密，或加密市場爆出黑天鵝。若BTC跌穿$100K，Alts再度失血，我們的穩健組合將會如何？

• 很可能，相同組合還是能跑贏大市，但要注意：「跑贏」是相對——都會跌，但跌得較小。BTC大概再跌15-20%，Tron預計依舊守得不錯，Monero、MKR亦同理（尤其若DAI又被追捧）；風險較高為Zcash，新一輪避險資金流時或會回調一大截升幅。

• 關鍵觀察指標：穩定幣市佔——如果再現恐慌下跌，市場穩定幣比率會大增（資金撤出風高幣種）。若迅速躍升，資金避險情緒明顯，往往利好BTC（雖然矛盾，但穩定幣...dominance上升代表價格下跌，但亦可能意味著資金輪動去穩定幣（最終會成為重新入市的資金來源）。針對像MKR這種代幣，要留意DAI的掛鈎情況和市值。如果DAI在市場下跌時以高於$1的價位成交（即有少量溢價），代表對去中心化穩定幣需求甚高，對MKR的韌性屬利好訊號。至於私隱幣，注意其價格和黃金或其他避險資產的相關性；若與黃金的相關性突然轉為正數，說明市場當其為危機對沖工具，亦即它們或會脫離大市一般的加密幣跌勢。

• 風險管理提示：即使持有這些較有韌性的代幣，建議亦應用止蝕或提醒級別等風險管理工具。例如Tron明確跌穿$0.30支持位或者MKR低於$1,200（純作示範的關鍵位），都可能代表連強勢幣種都已投降，進一步跌幅或會加劇。

3. 風險偏好恢復（"Uptober" 再現）：假設跌市已完全消化，宏觀環境變得有利（例如聯儲局2026年初釋放減息訊號，減輕壓力），而加密市場氣氛轉為樂觀。比特幣重新突破高位，各山寨幣亦不乏買盤：

• 在風險偏好急速轉強的反彈初段，這批具韌性的幣很可能會落後於高Beta投機幣（即風險最大、波幅最高的一批）。危機過後，之前跌得最狠的幣往往反彈百分比最大（橡筋回彈效應）。有機會見到曾被重創的DeFi或Meme幣以百分比計反彈幅度更高。不過，韌性幣一般會在絕對價格上領先，並能維持升幅。例如BTC可能勁升，而dominance稍為回落，由於細價山寨幣抽升，但BTC、ETH及有質素的山寨如LINK、MKR等，料仍能創出新高並吸引新資金（尤其是機構資金）。
• 重點要睇：資金費率同未平倉合約（OI）積聚情況。牛市復甦時如果見到山寨永續合約資金費率急升（即有好多槓桿長倉入場），反映市場重燃狂熱——短線有利動能升浪，但中線有過熱再洗倉的風險。特別要留意例如ZEC、DASH這類剛剛抽升的幣，是否有新期貨產品上市或OI爆升——有機會正值升浪頂部。相反，大幣如BTC、ETH，資金費率適度偏正屬正常（牛市時預期如此）。
• 此外，復甦期要留意開發者同用戶在這些平台的活躍情況：例如以太坊gas使用量——如果持續上升，證明實際使用量同步增長支持價格。又如Chainlink預言機調用次數——愈多調用即愈多應用落地。可以評估價格升勢是否有基本面支持，還是純粹炒作。
• 食糊策略：市況過熱反彈時，考慮使用跟蹤止賺或分批減磅，特別是Zcash、Dash這類一向難保長時間暴升的幣。至少等基本面新循環配合上才留倉更長。至於核心幣種（BTC、ETH、MKR）可考慮持有較耐，但保持警覺。

風險管理指引：不論情境如何，讀者都要控制風險，切勿以為上述幣種金剛不壞。有幾個良好做法：

• 分散投資——本身清單已跨越多個類別（儲值、私隱、DeFi等）。持有多個而非單一幣可減少非系統性風險。
• 為重大基礎變化設提醒：例如MakerDAO治理表決改變DAI政策（會影響MKR）、主要交易所下架消息（影響私隱幣）、或項目高層爆緋聞等。這些因素可以即時打擊資產前景。
• 應用止蝕單要考量交易量：例如其中某幣於高成交下失守大半段反彈幅度，可能代表動能轉弱，在主要支持位之下設止蝕，可節省資金轉戰其他地方。

總結而言，這些資產雖然在10月大考中交出表現，但未來依然面對新挑戰。韌性是持續的素質，而不是一時的稱號。投資者應不斷檢視令這些代幣變強的原因（社群承諾、合理tokenomics、實用性）有否保持/提升，以及一旦市場敘事轉變能否及時調整策略。

觀察清單及預警信號

針對每個韌性資產，定期監察某些數據或事件，有助及早發現韌性假設失效或支持減弱：

• Bitcoin (BTC)：留意交易所流向——如果大量BTC持續流入交易所（經常是拋售前兆）但同時沒見有同等數量流入長線錢包，可能預示機構派貨。另外需追蹤Bitcoin dominance ——若市升時dominance急跌，可能反映資金輪動去高風險細幣（即將BTC相對優勢削弱）。

• Tron (TRX)：留意Tron上發行的USDT數量。如果Tether棄用Tron或有新型更快公鏈取代其市場，Tron的支付需求可被削減。另外如Tron自己的穩定幣（USDD）出現問題或主要DeFi應用被駭客攻擊，都會打擊其穩定故事。

• Monero (XMR)：密切關注監管動向。如果主要國家全面禁私隱幣或大型交易所下架Monero，流動性或會枯竭，於韌性上出現裂縫。同時要注意Monero的算力及網絡健康——算力大幅下滑可能代表礦工投降或網絡安全減弱。

• Binance Coin (BNB)：重點睇幣安交易所消息。任何負面消息——如官司敗訴、銀行夥伴關係有問題阻礙法幣充提、或幣安市佔率流失——都會直接打擊BNB的應用價值及形象。留意BNB Chain鏈上的用戶及開發活動；若大量項目／用戶流失（譬如走去其他公鏈或L2），每日交易量大幅萎縮，即失去對BNB的剛性需求。

• Ethereum (ETH)：留意抵押解除排程及參與情況。又一次大量ETH要求解鎖退出質押（例如質押息率過低），短期會增加流通供應。此外，Layer 2發展屬雙刃劍：如果L2將來真的改用自家Token支付Gas（已有項目提出類似方向），ETH需求會受輕微侵蝕——暫時毋須太擔心，但屬值得留意趨勢。

• Chainlink (LINK)：重點是預言機調用量若見下降或者面對新競爭對手。譬如新預言機網絡開始搶走Link整合數，或者主要DeFi協議停用Link，屬危險警號。相反，若Link質押參與失色（即推了但大家唔願stake），說明社群對價值增長信心減弱。

• XRP (XRP)：要留意法律／監管的重大節點。例如SEC在上訴得直令Ripple敗訴，又或ETF申請一拖再拖，市場情緒會轉淡。另可跟進Ripple季度報告披露賣出XRP的數量——如大幅加快出貨，市場消化能力未必追得上，會拖低價格。

• Maker (MKR)：主要兩項：DAI的穩定性（失守$1掛鈎或供應大縮水，意味核心產品出事），以及治理團隊對盈餘buffer及回購計劃的決定。如突然停MKR回購或調派收入去其他地方，買盤壓力即刻消失。亦要睇利率，環球利率大跌會收窄Maker RWA回報拖慢MKR銷毀步伐。

• Dash (DASH)：要監察主節點（masternode）數量。如主節點大減，代表持有人解鎖準備沽貨，屬早期信心轉弱訊號。另一點，若有交易所宣布下架Dash（因有時打壓私隱幣時連Dash都算埋一份），流動性會受損。

• Zcash (ZEC)：最大危險信號是受保護池（shielded pool）使用量，即使價格升都未有同步增長。如果只是炒價，非新用戶湧入，勢頭難持久。另外Zcash正進行網絡升級（NU5已經實裝Halo，將來更可能行PoS），但若社群分歧或拖延升級，會拖慢發展。技術層面亦可跟進grayscale ZEC信託或其他基金流入流出（如持續撤資，即有機構食糊信號）。

監察面板建議：讀者可設一個“韌性儀表板”定期更新重要指標：

• 價格及回撤追蹤：製作表格，比較每個資產對比10月10日基線，如某個長時間大幅跑輸大市，要查明原因。
• 波幅及相關性：追蹤每個資產30日實現波幅及與BTC的相關係數。如波幅或相關性突升，代表該幣交易風格趨向高Beta，丟失獨立韌性。
• 鏈上健康數據：如Bitcoin 1年以上未動供應比率（長線持幣proxy，現時接歷史高位，持續高屬利好），Monero受保護交易數、Maker的鎖定總價值和DAI供應等。這些異常變化往往先於價格反應。
• 衍生品信號：緊貼BTC、ETH，及有期貨產品幣種（如LINK、BTC、ETH、XRP、BNB）的資金費率。極端值（如年化正負30%以上）不可持續——當某韌性資產出現此情況，往往很快逆轉市場預期。

持續留意這類數據，能提早預警。例如Tron鏈上活動突然大跌，或MKR鏈上回購動作消失，就是市場尚未反映前的減倉警號。

最後，韌性屬於動態特質。今次最強的一族下次大機會仍會較有防守力，但投資者必須——remain vigilant. Continuous due diligence – following developer updates, governance forums, macro news – is crucial. One should especially be on alert for any loss of a key support factor (like if Binance announced stopping BNB burns or if Ethereum staking participation dropped significantly – hypothetical examples).

保持警覺。持續進行盡職調查 —— 包括跟進開發者的最新消息、治理論壇、宏觀新聞 —— 極為重要。尤其要留意任何關鍵支撐因素的喪失（例如，萬一幣安宣佈停止銷毀BNB，或以太坊質押參與度大幅下降等等——這些只是假設性的例子）。

Final thoughts

The October 2025 flash crash was an extraordinary stress test that revealed a hierarchy of crypto asset resilience. At the top were tokens buttressed by real utility, committed holders, and sound economics – the “shock absorbers” that endured the blow with comparatively minor and short-lived damage. We saw that Bitcoin’s liquidity and haven status, Tron and Monero’s loyal communities, Maker and Chainlink’s fundamental cash flows, XRP’s unique catalysts, and others’ prudent token designs collectively made the difference between a quick recovery and a prolonged drawdown.

2025年10月的閃電崩盤是一場極罕見的壓力測試，揭示了加密資產抗壓能力的層次。在頂層的是那些擁有真實用途、忠誠持有人和穩健經濟模式的代幣——這些正是能夠「吸震」的資產，最終僅受到相對輕微而短暫的損害。我們見到，例如比特幣的流動性和避險地位，Tron和Monero的忠實社群，Maker和Chainlink的基本現金流，XRP的獨特催化劑，以及其他項目審慎的代幣設計，都一同令這些資產能夠快速復甦，而不至於長期下跌。

A core insight is that structural factors – not hype – predict resilience. High staking participation, token burns or buybacks, diversified real-world usage, and even something as simple as being around and battle-tested for multiple market cycles all contributed to staying power. For instance, the fact that Maker could burn tokens using real income gave it inherent support, or that Tron’s blockchain kept humming with stablecoin transfers when trading markets seized provided a floor of demand. These are tangible factors, not just investor sentiment swings.

一個重要啟示是，預測抗壓力的其實是結構性因素，不是炒作。高質押參與度、代幣銷毀或回購、廣泛多元的實際應用、甚至只是在多輪牛熊市中經歷考驗都能提升持續力。例如，Maker 能夠以真實收益進行銷毀就成為天然支撐；又如Tron區塊鏈在交易市場癱瘓時，仍有穩定幣轉帳活動維持了基本需求。這些都是實實在在的因素，而不只是一時的投資者情緒波動。

This isn’t to say these assets are invulnerable (they’re not), but when faced with a sudden vacuum of liquidity, they had anchors: be it a treasury that steps in, or users who stubbornly won’t sell, or arbitrageurs who see fundamental value. In contrast, many tokens that fared worst had little to fall back on – no revenue, no loyal user base, and often complex token inflation that amplified sell pressure. In a phrase, quality mattered.

這並不是說這些資產就刀槍不入（事實並非如此），但在流動性突然消失時，它們有一定的支撐——如有資金庫介入、有死忠用戶堅決不賣、或有套利者認同基本價值。對比下，許多表現最差的代幣，沒有收入、沒有忠實用戶基礎，再加上複雜的代幣通脹機制，進一步放大了賣壓。簡單來說，「質素」才是關鍵。

For readers and crypto participants, applying these lessons means looking under the hood of projects, especially during calm times before the next storm hits. Which network has real usage? Which token’s supply is being steadily eaten away by utility or burns versus which will flood the market with unlocks? Who will still be holding this coin if it drops 50% – anyone, or will it be a ghost town of speculators?

對讀者和加密貨幣參與者來說，實踐這些經驗就意味著在風平浪靜時期，預早審視每個項目的底子。例如：哪條網絡有真實應用？哪種代幣的供應是因用途或銷毀而穩定減少，而哪些則會因鎖倉解鎖潮而充斥市場？如果這枚幣跌50%，還有人會繼續持有，還是淪為投機客無人問津的鬼域？

As we move forward, the outlook has bright spots but also caution flags. On one hand, the cleansing of excess leverage and the rotation into sturdier assets could set the stage for a healthier market foundation (as some analysts said, perhaps this crash “reset the risk” and allowed true builders to shine). On the other hand, macro uncertainties like the trade war, regulatory decisions on ETFs and stablecoins, and global economic shifts will continue to inject volatility.

展望未來，前景雖然有可取之處，但也不乏警號。一方面，去槓桿化和資金流入更穩健資產，有望為市場打下更健康的基礎（有分析師甚至說這場崩盤「重設了風險」，讓真實建設者有機會突圍）。但同時，貿易戰、ETF和穩定幣的監管決策，以及全球經濟變動，都會持續為市場帶來波動。

The next key dates to watch: - Late Oct 2025 – possible SEC decisions on crypto ETFs (especially XRP’s) that could boost or dent certain coins. - Late Nov 2025 – a scheduled large token unlock for a major project (not in our top 10 but something like an Arbitrum unlock) which could test how the market absorbs new supply. - Q1 2026 – broader macro events: central bank meetings, as well as Ethereum’s next protocol upgrade (if any significant one scheduled) and Bitcoin’s approaching halving in April 2026, which historically starts being priced in months prior. These could all shift the relative appeal of assets (e.g., Bitcoin halving hype might cause BTC to outperform for a while, or Ethereum upgrade news might bolster ETH).

下一些要留意的重要日子：

• 2025年10月底——SEC可能就加密ETF（特別是XRP相關）作出決定，有機會推動或打擊某些幣種；
• 2025年11月底——某大型項目預定有大額代幣解鎖（不是我們前十的項目，例如Arbitrum解鎖），市場如何消化新增供應會是一大考驗；
• 2026年第一季——更廣泛的宏觀事件，例如多國央行議息、有否以太坊重要協議升級，以及比特幣將於2026年4月迎來減半，而過去減半消息往往提前數月反映於市價。這些都可能改變不同資產的吸引力（例如，比特幣減半帶動BTC短期跑贏，或以太坊升級消息利好ETH）。

In closing, the October crash taught us that even in one of the most dramatic meltdowns on record, there were havens of relative calm and quick rebirth. It reinforces a timeless principle: in markets, quality assets with clear value propositions tend to recover. As the saying goes, when the tide went out, we saw who had been swimming with trunks on. Those with solid “trunks” (be it tangible utility or prudent economics) emerged not just decent, but in some cases stronger than before.

總結來說，十月那場大崩盤教曉我們，即使在最戲劇性的暴跌中，也有一片片相對安穩、迅速回復生機的避風港。這重申了一條市場上的永恆道理：有明確價值主張的優質資產，往往最容易復元。正如那句名言——潮水退了，才知道誰還穿着褲。那些有實在「褲頭」（無論是實用性還是穩健經濟設計）的項目，不只依然健壯，甚至部分比以前更強。

For crypto participants, the homework is to identify those trunks in advance – to focus on projects with real technology and community substance, to diversify across different value drivers (store-of-value, DeFi revenue, privacy, etc.), and to remain agile. Crashes will happen again. By studying this leaderboard of resilience, one can better position to not only survive the next shock, but perhaps even capitalize on it – rotating into fundamentally sound assets when they’re temporarily on sale, and setting oneself up for the next phase, where durability and quality lead to disproportionate rewards.

對加密貨幣參與者來說，課題就是提前辨認哪些項目有「褲頭」——專注於真正有技術、有社群底蘊的項目，並於不同價值驅動（儲值、DeFi收入、私隱等）中做好分散配置，始終保持靈活。市場總會再有波動。藉由研究這張抗逆榜，不僅能幫助自己下次衝擊中安然脫身，更可能趁機調倉進入有實力但被低估的資產，部署好下一輪優質項目帶來非對稱回報的契機。