最近，福克斯商業頻道高級記者 Charles Gasparino 爆出一個震撼加密貨幣市場及華盛頓政壇的獨家消息。據知情人士透露，關於 Binance 創辦人兼前行政總裁趙長鵬（CZ）獲得總統特赦的白宮內部討論正日益升溫。
時機相當關鍵。就在 Gasparino 的報道發布後數小時，全球加密貨幣市場經歷歷史性暴跌。當特朗普總統宣布對中國商品徵收100%關稅後，比特幣一度跌穿$110,000。48小時內，槓桿加密倉位共超過190億美元遭清算，成為數字資產史上最大單次清算事件。加密市值本在4.2萬億美元左右，卻因中美貿易緊張升級和地緣政治不明朗，瞬間蒸發數千億美元。
然而，在這波混亂中，趙長鵬（加密圈普遍稱為「CZ」）獲總統特赦的可能，反映的遠不只短線市場波動，更觸及產業問責、總統權力邊界、家族生意對決策的潛在影響，以及美國加密監管未來走向等根本問題。
要明白這項特赦有何重要性，必須先了解趙長鵬其人、定罪經過、為何特朗普有意赦免，以及這決定對正在尋找法律、監管和主流認可平衡的加密產業意味著什麼。這，就是這場故事的全貌。
Binance「幣圈皇帝」的起與落
趙長鵬憑著技術創新、全球積極擴張，以及勇於踏足競爭對手避之則吉的灰色地帶，將 Binance 打造成全球最大加密交易所。自2017年創立以來，Binance 幾乎等於高流量加密交易的代名詞，向用戶提供數百種數字資產、先進交易功能及業界最低手續費之一。
直至 2021 年，Binance 交易量已遠超其他對手，單日現貨、衍生品及其他加密產品成交額以十億美元計。趙長鵬本人亦憑持有巨額 BNB 幣資產成為多重億萬富翁。他一直塑造自己為「幣圈哲學王」：常穿T恤、喜談金融自由，以及區塊鏈讓金融民主化的力量。
但 Binance 爆炸性增長同時帶來致命風險——隨後證實足以終結趙長鵬掌舵。為稱霸全球，他們採取了檢控官形容為「有意迴避美國金融監管」的策略。趙長鵬一句「寧願先做後道歉，好過事先請示」的理念，正正是法庭後來曝光的內部通訊主旋律。
美國司法部壓境
多年來，美國當局對 Binance 保持高度警惕。表面上，交易所聲稱已退出美國並封鎖美國用戶，但檢方事後指出，Binance 實際上並無能力阻止美國人透過 VPN 等方法繞過封鎖。而更嚴重的是，有證據顯示其協助受美國制裁國家（包括伊朗、古巴和敘利亞）用戶交易。
壓倒趙長鵬的調查涉及多個聯邦部門攜手，包括司法部刑事部、國家安全部及華盛頓西區檢察官，還有財政部旗下的金融犯罪執法局和外國資產管理辦公室。商品期貨交易委員會亦加入，調查 Binance 是否非法向美國人提供衍生品交易。
此案核心在於《銀行保密法》（Bank Secrecy Act）。這是1970 年頒佈、協助執法打擊洗黑錢的美國關鍵法例。規定凡於美國運作的金融機構，須執行反洗錢計劃、保存資料和向聯邦通報可疑交易。
《銀行保密法》簡介
《銀行保密法》是美國打擊洗黑錢、恐怖分子資金流及其他金融犯罪的基石，自1970 年通過並多次修訂，尤以 9‧11 後《愛國者法案》最為重大。此法要求金融機構與執法合作，檢查和舉報可疑行為。
其核心包括：記錄可流通票據現金交易、單日超過一萬美元的交易需呈報、必須報告可疑活動，以及建立完善反洗錢制度——包括內部監控、合規主管、員工訓練以及獨立審核。此法不僅適用於傳統銀行，連服務美國用戶的加密貨幣交易所也適用。
違規者可面對民事罰款、刑事指控，甚至被判囚。對趙長鵬來講，這最後一條尤為致命。
認罪與判刑
2023 年 11 月 21 日，於西雅圖聯邦法院，趙長鵬在法官 Brian Tsuchida 前認罪，承認違反《銀行保密法》。他因 Binance 未能維持有效反洗錢機制，而被控直接責任。根據認罪協議，趙承認為追求增長而犧牲合規，令交易所處理了億萬美元未經充分反洗錢監管的資金。
此和解規模創紀錄——Binance 需支付 43 億美元罰款及充公資金，創下美國史上企業刑事和解新高，還要聘請獨立第三方監控並進行三年深入整改。
趙長鵬則須親自繳交 5,000 萬美元罰款、辭任行政總裁，並三年內不得參與公司管理。阿布扎比前金融監管官 Richard Teng（曾任 Binance 區域主管）則接任CEO。
檢方原要求判囚 36 個月，認為趙長鵬違規規模空前，必須用強力阻嚇向加密業界示警。他們形容 Binance 行事如「蠻荒西部」，趙長鵬賭博式容許違規，覺得被抓與後果都抵得過收益。
至2024 年 4 月 30 日，法官 Richard Jones 判趙長鵬入獄四個月，雖遠低於檢方要求，但已是首位因《銀行保密法》違規判監的加密交易所行政總裁。「你有能力、有團隊、也有充足資源去確保每項監管要求都能遵守，但最後你並無盡責。」 Jones 法官當庭斥責。
趙長鵬於一所低度保安監獄服刑，於 2024 年 9 月刑期屆滿獲釋，完成了四個月監禁。然而刑事定罪、5,000 萬罰款和三年管理禁令依然有效。對於長年處身加密宇宙權力中心的他而言，猶如職業流放。
正因如此，趙長鵬有強烈動機尋求美國憲法下極少數非常手段之一——總統特赦。
由比特幣懷疑者到加密推手：特朗普的轉變
要明白特朗普為何會考慮特赦趙長鵬，必須先認識2024 大選週期最驚人的政治轉身之一：特朗普由加密懷疑者蛻變為產業擁護者。
特朗普於2017至2021年首任總統時，曾對加密貨幣持極大懷疑。2019 年 7 月他在推特寫道：「我並不看好比特幣和其他加密貨幣，它們不是貨幣，其價值易波動且毫無根基。」又警告加密貨幣有助非法活動，包括毒品交易等，強調 「美國只有一種真正的貨幣，堅挺如昔。」
這立場與傳統金融監管和執法單位一致，後者認為加密貨幣主要服務罪犯、逃稅及規避制裁者。在他首任期間，聯邦當局已對加密企業展開打擊行動，但規模遠不及拜登政府時期。
轉折點：納什維爾及之後
此轉變於2024大選期間正式展開。 2024年，特朗普現身於田納西州納殊維爾舉行的Bitcoin 2024會議，成為歷來首位在這個每年聚集加密貨幣愛好者的大型活動上演講的主要總統候選人。特朗普在座無虛席的會場上發表激昂演說，承諾如當選，會令美國成為“世界加密之都”，終結他口中拜登政府對行業的“戰爭”。
特朗普承諾會解僱證券及交易委員會（SEC）主席Gary Gensler，後者強硬執法手法早成為加密圈眼中釘。他又承諾成立總統數碼資產諮詢委員會。最具爭議的是，他提出設立“戰略比特幣儲備”，建議美國政府應將加密貨幣作為類似黃金或石油儲備一樣的國家資產持有。
加密產業界迅速以熱烈反應和資金回應。行業高層及投資者大舉捐款給特朗普競選團隊，視其參選為重塑監管環境的曙光。Coinbase行政總裁Brian Armstrong成為2024年選舉周期中最大捐款者之一，其他加密業界人士亦紛紛把資源投進支持特朗普的超級政治行動委員會及加密專注的政治行動團體。
在2024年11月大選勝出後，特朗普迅速兌現其承諾。2025年1月23日，即就職三天後，他簽署名為《加強美國數碼金融科技領導地位》的行政命令。命令撤銷了拜登時期的加密政策，成立總統數碼資產市場工作組，禁止任何央行數碼貨幣項目，推動以美元為本的穩定幣，並指示相關機構為業界帶來監管清晰度。
特朗普委任著名風險投資家David Sacks為白宮“加密及AI專員”。友好加密投資者Scott Bessent則頂替對數碼資產持保留態度的Janet Yellen成為財長。Paul Atkins，也被視為更為行業友善，則接替前任擔任SEC主席。
2025年3月，特朗普召開了首屆白宮加密峰會，在會上簽署行政命令，設立戰略比特幣儲備及更廣泛的數碼資產庫。初期儲備將由因刑事充公而沒收的加密貨幣注資，日後擴展至比特幣以外的資產。
無論如何量度，特朗普都已兌現對加密業界的競選承諾。但除了政策轉變和政治任命，故事還有更多內容。特朗普及其家族更直接參與加密經濟，開展了新業務，模糊了公私利益界線。
特朗普家族的加密帝國
2024年9月，早於特朗普重返白宮前，他的兒子小唐納、Eric 及 Barron創立了World Liberty Financial，一個去中心化金融平台，初期將特朗普標明為“榮譽聯合創辦人”（後來改名以反映其實際角色）。該項目於2024年10月推出WLFI治理代幣，於早期投資者中籌得數百萬美元。
2025年1月，就職前數天，特朗普推出以自己命名的meme幣，$TRUMP代幣。數小時內其市值便暴升至十億級數，大增特朗普家族“帳面財富”。第一夫人Melania Trump隨後亦推出自己的$MELANIA代幣。批評者即時質疑總統及家人於任期內從金融工具中牟利的倫理問題，但特朗普支持者則堅稱這些都是透過信託進行的合法商業活動。
最重大的發展發生於2025年3月，World Liberty Financial宣布計劃推出USD1——一款由美國國債及現金等值資產支持的機構級穩定幣。著名數碼資產託管商BitGo將作為技術合作夥伴，以其Stablecoin-as-a-Service平台支援USD1運作。
穩定幣的商業模式極具利潤。發行商可收取支持其穩定幣的國債和其他資產所產生的利息，而代幣本身則與美元1：1掛勾。若流通量龐大，每年可為發行方帶來數千萬美元收入且風險極低。
然後，在2025年5月1日，一宗更大規模的利益衝突新聞出現：Eric Trump於杜拜Token2049會議上公布，阿布扎比主權財富投資公司MGX將利用USD1來結算對全球最大加密貨幣交易所Binance的20億美元投資。
這宗交易在多個層面上都是史無前例的——不但成為任何加密公司獲得的最大機構投資之一，令MGX成為Binance的小股東，同時亦為該交易所提供大量資金。這是Binance自2023年官司後首個重大機構支持。而這亦代表一間外國政府支持的公司，與一間已認罪違反美國制裁及反洗黑錢法的公司，經由由現屆總統家族控制的穩定幣調動數十億美元。
幾星期內，USD1市值飆升至超過20億美元，成為史上增長最快的穩定幣。如World Liberty Financial保留儲備資產收益，特朗普家族每年可賺取數千萬美元，儘管他們與Binance或其他合作方的實際分成並不公開。
民主黨參議員以Elizabeth Warren及Jeff Merkley為首，要求公開該宗交易記錄並要透明度，警告此舉帶來前所未有的利益衝突。他們指出，儘管趙長鵬已辭任行政總裁，但仍為Binance最大股東，因此任何對該公司業務或監管身份的決策都可能影響趙的財富，甚至間接影響他爭取總統特赦的立場。
白宮內部辯論
根據Charles Gasparino於10月10日的報導，白宮內部就是否赦免趙長鵬，現時主導著兩種截然不同的爭拗。
支持特赦者據報認為，對趙案子的指控薄弱，刑罰過重。他們指出，趙是美國歷來第一宗因單一銀行保密法罪名入獄的人，檢控官明顯是想殺雞儆猴，嚇止整個加密行業。他們又指出，趙只服刑四個月並已繳納巨額罰款，認為他已受處罰。
支持者亦將特赦視為特朗普支持加密業界的更廣泛舉措，藉此向外界展示本屆政府與拜登團隊截然不同的金融監管立場。多位特朗普親信本身在加密領域有投資或職業發展，認為趙案正好反映過度監管問題。
BitMEX前例進一步鞏固這論點。2025年3月28日，特朗普特赦了BitMEX三位聯合創辦人——Arthur Hayes、Benjamin Delo、Samuel Reed——及一名高層職員Gregory Dwyer，四人均承認未有維持足夠反洗黑錢制度而違反銀行保密法。特朗普又史無前例地特赦了BitMEX母公司HDR Global Trading，免除了其應於60日內付清的1億美元罰款。
更引人注目的是2025年1月，特朗普特赦了絲綢之路（Silk Road）創辦人Ross Ulbricht。該網上市場曾協助非法毒品買賣及其他犯罪活動。Ulbricht向來服終身監禁，不得假釋，推薦釋放他的聲音在加密圈日漸高漲，指其處罰過重。特朗普履行競選承諾特赦他，贏盡加密社區掌聲。
既有這些先例，支持趙特赦者認為，公平一致正要求同等對待Binance創辦人。
但了解白宮討論的人士透露，反對聲音亦頗大，主因在於政治形象及潛在風險。
行政團隊內部擔心，若趙獲特赦，而特朗普家族生意在與Binance進行數十億美元交易，外界會肯定視之為赤裸裸的貪腐。時間亦極為敏感：趙是在2025年5月，也就是USD1-MGX-Binance交易宣布後數星期，才正式提交特赦申請。多位民主黨參議員已明確警告，任何特赦都會令人質疑這是否換取特朗普家族經濟利益的交易。
還有對趙特赦開創的先例感到憂慮：與Ulbricht那種廣被視為過酷的終身監（或BitMEX三創始人僅被判緩刑及在家監禁）不同，檢控官指趙明知故犯，經營全球最大加密貨幣交易所時目無美國法律。他涉及史無前例的大規模洗黑錢，並與受制裁地區有交易，牽涉國家安全問題。
有白宮官員據報擔心，特赦趙將削弱美國打造清晰規則、加密友善的大國形象，訊號未必是“美國歡迎創新”，反而變成“美國向出價最高者開放”。
截至2025年10月中旬，尚未有定案，though Gasparino's sources suggested that discussions were advancing and that Trump himself appeared to be leaning toward granting the pardon as part of his broader reassessment of Biden-era crypto enforcement.
雖然Gasparino的消息來源透露討論正在推進，而特朗普本人看來亦傾向於頒發赦免令，作為他對拜登時代加密貨幣執法政策全面重新檢討的一部分。
The Legal Landscape: Presidential Pardons and Financial Crime
法律環境：總統赦免權與金融罪行
To evaluate the significance of a potential Zhao pardon requires understanding the constitutional framework that gives presidents nearly unlimited power to grant clemency in federal criminal cases.
要評估趙長鵬有可能獲得赦免的意義，首先要了解美國憲法形成的框架，賦予總統在聯邦刑事案件中幾乎無限制地行使寬赦權力。
Article II, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution grants the president the power "to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment." This power is essentially absolute when it comes to federal crimes, with almost no restrictions on the president's discretion. Congress cannot overturn a presidential pardon, and courts have consistently held that the pardon power is not subject to judicial review.
根據美國憲法第二條第二節，總統有權「針對美國的罪行，授予緩刑與赦免，彈劾案件除外」。這項權力在聯邦罪行上基本上屬於絕對，總統行使酌情權幾乎不受限制。國會無權推翻總統赦免，而法院亦一直裁定赦免權不受司法覆核。
A presidential pardon has several legal effects. It eliminates the convicted person's guilt in the eyes of the law, restores civil rights that may have been forfeited (such as the right to vote or own firearms), and can eliminate or reduce criminal penalties. However, a pardon does not erase the underlying conviction from someone's record, and it does not prevent civil lawsuits or other non-criminal consequences.
總統赦免有多種法律效果。它會令受刑人於法律上被免除罪責、恢復可能喪失的公民權利（如投票權或持槍權），亦可以消除或減輕刑責。不過，赦免並不會從當事人的紀錄中抹去有關刑事定罪，亦不能阻止民事訴訟或其他非刑事後果。
In Zhao's case, a pardon would eliminate his four-month prison sentence (already served), wipe out the $50 million fine (which remains outstanding), and potentially remove the three-year management ban that prohibits him from involvement in Binance's operations. It would restore his legal status to that of someone who had never been convicted.
以趙長鵬為例，假如獲赦免，他已服刑的四個月監禁會被撤銷、尚未繳清的5000萬美元罰款會被一筆勾銷，還有可能撤銷他不得參與幣安營運為期三年的禁令。總括來說，他的法律身份會回到從未有過定罪的狀態。
The pardon would not, however, affect Binance's separate criminal convictions, its $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. government, or its ongoing obligation to maintain an independent compliance monitor for three years. Those penalties were imposed on the corporate entity, not on Zhao personally.
然而，這項赦免不會影響到幣安本身的刑事定罪、美國政府索取的43億美元和解金，或對其為期三年持續受獨立合規監察的要求。這些處分是針對該公司本身，而不是趙長鵬個人。
Historical Context: Presidential Pardons in Financial Crime Cases
歷史背景：美國總統在金融犯罪案例的赦免權
Presidents have historically used the pardon power sparingly in cases involving significant financial crimes, particularly those involving executives of major companies. The concerns are multiple: pardoning white-collar criminals can appear to favor wealthy and politically connected individuals, undermine public confidence in equal justice under law, and send a message that corporate misconduct carries minimal consequences.
在歷史上，總統對於重大金融犯罪案件（尤其涉及大企業高層）行使赦免權一向極為謹慎。原因很多：赦免白領罪犯往往給人偏幫富裕、有政治關係人士的觀感，也會削弱公眾對法律公正的信心，並傳遞企業不當行為後果輕微的錯誤訊息。
However, there are notable exceptions. President Bill Clinton's final-day pardon of financier Marc Rich in 2001 remains one of the most controversial clemency decisions in modern history. Rich, who had fled to Switzerland to avoid prosecution for tax evasion, wire fraud, and illegal oil trading with Iran, received a pardon after extensive lobbying efforts that included significant donations to Clinton's presidential library and the Democratic Party. The pardon generated bipartisan outrage and prompted investigations into whether it had been purchased.
然而亦有顯著例外。比爾·克林頓總統於2001年任期最後一天赦免金融家Marc Rich，成為現代史上最具爭議的寬赦決定之一。Rich因逃避稅務、電信詐騙及非法與伊朗進行石油交易而潛逃瑞士，最終透過大量遊說（包括向克林頓的總統圖書館和民主黨捐款）獲得赦免。此舉引發兩黨震怒，並導致調查該赦免是否「買回來」。
President George W. Bush commuted the sentence of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, his vice president's chief of staff, who had been convicted of perjury and obstruction of justice in connection with the leak of a CIA officer's identity. President Trump later granted Libby a full pardon.
喬治·布殊總統曾替其副總統幕僚長I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby減刑，Libby因洩露中情局人員身份案被判偽證及妨礙司法公正。其後特朗普總統更給予Libby完全赦免。
Trump's own pardon record during his first term included several white-collar criminals and political allies. He pardoned or commuted sentences for individuals convicted of fraud, embezzlement, and financial crimes, often at the urging of prominent supporters or family members. His final-day pardons in January 2021 included Steve Bannon, his former chief strategist, who faced fraud charges related to a fundraising scheme (though those charges were later revived at the state level).
特朗普於首任總統期間，赦免或減刑多名白領犯罪分子和政治盟友。他曾赦免或減刑的對象涉詐騙、挪用公款等金融犯罪，往往是受到名人支持者或家屬游說。2021年1月任期最後一天的赦免名單內亦包括他的前首席策略師Steve Bannon，Bannon因募捐計劃被控詐騙（雖然相關罪名後來在州層面被重啟）。
In his second term, Trump has shown even more willingness to use the pardon power for financial crimes, particularly in the crypto space. The BitMEX pardons in March 2025 represented a significant expansion of this approach, wiping out not just individual convictions but also a corporate criminal conviction and a $100 million fine.
而在第二個任期，特朗普對金融犯罪（尤其是加密貨幣領域）動用赦免權的意願更高。2025年3月對BitMEX的赦免，不單抹消了個人刑事定罪，更一併撤銷公司本身的刑事罪名和1億美元罰款，標誌著這種取態的重大擴張。
Binance After Zhao: Life Under the Monitor
趙長鵬之後的幣安：監管監察下的生活
While the pardon debate continues, Binance itself has been operating under intense scrutiny from its court-appointed compliance monitor, a figure with extraordinary powers to examine and influence the exchange's operations.
在赦免討論持續之際，幣安自身亦正接受由法院委派的合規監察員嚴格監督，該監察員擁有極大權力可審查和影響交易所日常運作。
The monitor, appointed as part of Binance's November 2023 settlement, reports directly to the U.S. Department of Justice and has broad authority to review Binance's anti-money laundering programs, sanctions compliance, transaction monitoring, and overall risk management. The monitor can require Binance to make changes to its systems, procedures, or personnel, and can report any deficiencies or violations to federal prosecutors.
這名監察員是2023年11月幣安美國和解協議的一部分，直接向美國司法部報告，並有廣泛權力檢視幣安的反洗黑錢措施、制裁合規、交易監測及整體風險管理。他有權要求幣安更改系統、流程或人員，亦可將任何缺失或違規即時向聯邦檢控官舉報。
For a company accustomed to moving fast and operating with minimal regulatory oversight, the presence of a compliance monitor represents a fundamental shift in culture. Every major business decision must now be vetted for compliance implications. Every new market or product launch requires careful analysis of regulatory requirements. The "move fast and break things" ethos that characterized Binance's rise is no longer an option.
對一間向來以「快」及幾乎無監管自豪的公司來說，新增合規監察員代表文化大轉變——每項重大商業決策都要先考慮合規性，每個新市場或產品推出都要詳細評估監管要求。昔日「先做事後補鑊」的創業精神，現已不可能再行。
Under Richard Teng's leadership as CEO, Binance has publicly committed to a new compliance-first approach. The exchange has hired former regulators and law enforcement officials for senior positions, invested hundreds of millions of dollars in compliance infrastructure, and implemented more robust know-your-customer and anti-money laundering procedures.
在新任行政總裁Richard Teng帶領下，幣安公開承諾奉行「合規優先」新策略。交易所已聘請多名前監管機構及執法官員出任高層，又斥資數億美元建設合規基建，並引入更嚴密的「認識你的客戶」以及反洗錢程序。
But questions remain about whether these changes are genuine cultural shifts or merely window dressing designed to satisfy the monitor. Critics point to continued concerns about Binance's operations in various jurisdictions, its ongoing litigation with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and its willingness to partner with entities like MGX on deals that appear designed primarily to curry favor with politically connected families.
但外界仍質疑此舉屬真正的文化轉變抑或僅為應付監察而作門面功夫。批評者指出，幣安在不同地區的運作仍有疑慮，與美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的官司尚在進行中，亦有跡象與類似MGX等機構進行交易以討好有權勢家族。
The Securities and Exchange Commission's case against Binance, separate from the criminal settlement, alleges that the exchange operated as an unregistered securities exchange and mishandled customer funds. While the SEC under Trump's appointees paused this litigation in February 2025, agreeing to a 60-day stay to explore settlement options, the case remains unresolved. Some observers speculate that a Zhao pardon could influence negotiations over the SEC case, potentially giving Binance more leverage to secure favorable terms.
證監會對幣安的指控（和之前刑事和解是分開的）主要涉及該平台作為「未註冊證券交易所」運作及處理客戶資金不當。在特朗普任命的新證監會主導下，該訴訟於2025年2月暫停60日，以便雙方研究和解，但案件仍未有定案。有評論認為，如果趙長鵬獲赦免，有可能影響與SEC的協商，給幣安增添爭取有利條款的籌碼。
Democratic senators have warned that any weakening of Binance's compliance monitoring or early termination of the three-year monitoring period would undermine the Justice Department's settlement and could indicate improper influence. They have urged Attorney General Pam Bondi and other officials to maintain strict oversight regardless of any pardon granted to Zhao personally.
民主黨參議員警告，任何放寬對幣安的合規監察或提前結束三年監督期，都會削弱司法部和解協議效力，並顯示可能有不當影響。因此他們敦促司法部長Pam Bondi及其他官員，即使趙長鵬個人獲赦免，亦必須維持嚴格監管。
Market Reactions and Geopolitical Fallout
市場反應及地緣政治影響
The cryptocurrency market's response to news of possible Zhao pardon discussions was complicated by simultaneous geopolitical tensions that dwarfed any single regulatory decision.
市場對趙長鵬可能獲赦免的消息反應，因同時爆發的地緣政治緊張局勢而變得更加複雜，單一監管決定顯得微不足道。
When Charles Gasparino reported on October 10 that White House discussions about pardoning Zhao were "heating up," the immediate market reaction was muted. On prediction markets like Polymarket, odds of Zhao receiving a pardon had fluctuated throughout 2025, ranging from 35 percent to 64 percent at various points. By October, many traders had already priced in a reasonable probability of clemency.
當Charles Gasparino於10月10日報導白宮赦免趙長鵬的討論「升溫」時，即時市場反應較為平靜。於Polymarket等預測市場，趙長鵬獲赦免機率全年在35%至64%間浮動，至10月時，很多交易者已將「獲赦免」的機會合理反映於價格之上。
However, just hours after the pardon news broke, President Trump announced plans to impose an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports, escalating a trade war that had already rattled global markets. The crypto market, which often moves in tandem with other risk assets during periods of heightened geopolitical stress, entered a violent downward spiral.
不過在赦免消息傳出僅數小時後，特朗普總統隨即宣布加徵100%中國進口商品關稅，將本已動盪的貿易戰進一步升級。受傳統高風險資產影響，加密貨幣市場在地緣危機下急跌。
Bitcoin, which had reached an all-time high of $126,000 in early October, plunged below $110,000, falling more than 12 percent in 24 hours. Ethereum dropped 15 percent. Alternative cryptocurrencies experienced even steeper declines, with some major tokens falling 20 to 30 percent. The total crypto market capitalization shed hundreds of billions of dollars in value.
比特幣價格於10月初曾高見$126,000，隨後24小時內跌破$110,000，跌幅超過12%。以太坊跌幅達15%。其他加密貨幣跌勢更急，部份主流代幣挫20至30%。全球加密資產總市值蒸發數千億美元。
Most dramatically, the liquidation cascade that followed represented the single largest deleveraging event in cryptocurrency history. Over $19 billion in long positions (bets that prices would rise) were forcibly closed as prices fell through key support levels, triggering margin calls and automated liquidations. For context, the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020 saw about $1.2 billion in crypto liquidations, while the FTX collapse in November 2022 resulted in approximately $1.6 billion. The October 2025 liquidations were roughly 16 times larger than FTX, a previously unprecedented disaster.
最為觸目的是其後引爆史上最大規模按槓桿爆倉潮，過去24小時內有逾190億美元多頭倉位（即睇升）被強制平倉，主因價格跌破多個關鍵支持位，觸發補倉動作和自動清倉機制。以往COVID-19引發2020年3月加密市場暴跌，總清算規模約12億美元；而2022年底FTX爆煲則約16億美元。今次2025年10月單日爆倉規模足足有FTX的16倍，前所未有。
It was difficult to separate cause from effect. How much of the crash was due to Trump's tariff announcement? How much reflected broader concerns about U.S.-China tensions? And how much, if any, stemmed from worries about crypto regulatory uncertainty and the precedent-setting implications of a Zhao pardon?
外界難以分清主因。這場暴跌有多大成份受特朗普宣布加徵關稅影響？又有多少是普遍對中美關係緊張的擔憂？抑或（如有的話）是趙長鵬可能獲赦免、加密監管政策前景不明，所帶來的不確定性造成？
Most analysts attributed the crash primarily to the tariff news and its implications for global economic growth, risk asset valuations, and capital flows. But beneath the surface, the possibility of a Zhao pardon added to a narrative of uncertainty that has plagued crypto markets throughout 2025.
大部分分析認為今次暴跌主因是關稅消息對全球經濟增長、風險資產估值與資金流動的衝擊。但在市場情緒層面，趙長鵬可能獲赦免確實令2025年本已不明朗的加密市場雪上加霜。
The China Factor
中國因素
The timing of the tariff announcement and pardon discussions was not coincidental. U.S.-China relations have been central to Trump's second term, with the president pursuing an aggressive trade policy aimed at reshaping the bilateral economic relationship. The 100 percent tariff announcement came in response to Chinese export controls on rare earth minerals, escalating a tit-for-tat dynamic
關稅決策與赦免討論在同一天相繼出現絕非巧合。中美關係一直是特朗普第二任期焦點，他採取更進取的貿易政策，目的在於重塑兩國經濟關係。今次加徵100%關稅，正是回應中國對稀土出口作出限制，兩國報復式措施愈演愈烈。that has roiled markets and raised fears of a full-scale trade war.
令市場動盪，並引發對全面貿易戰的憂慮。
Changpeng Zhao, though Canadian by citizenship, has extensive ties to China, where he spent part of his childhood and began his career in finance. Binance's early operations had significant presence in Asia, and the exchange has maintained relationships with Chinese crypto traders even after China banned cryptocurrency trading in 2021.
趙長鵬雖然是加拿大公民，但與中國有深厚聯繫，部分童年亦在中國度過，並在當地開始金融事業。幣安（Binance）早期業務在亞洲有重大影響力，甚至在中國於2021年禁止加密貨幣交易後，該交易所仍與中國加密貨幣交易員保持關係。
Some observers see a potential Zhao pardon as part of Trump's broader China strategy, either as a gesture of goodwill or as leverage in negotiations. Others view it more cynically, as an example of personal business interests (the USD1-Binance relationship) overriding strategic considerations.
有觀察人士認為，若對趙長鵬特赦，可能是特朗普較大盤中國策略的一部份，既可以作善意姿態，又可作談判籌碼。有些人則較為悲觀地看，認為這展示個人商業利益（例如與幣安達成的10億美元交易）凌駕戰略考慮。
The geopolitical dimension adds complexity to an already fraught decision. A pardon might be interpreted by Chinese authorities as the United States playing favorites with crypto executives who have Chinese connections, potentially complicating diplomatic efforts. Conversely, maintaining Zhao's conviction could be seen as anti-China bias, targeting successful business people of Chinese heritage more aggressively than their Western counterparts.
地緣政治的角度令已經複雜的決定更加棘手。中國當局或會將特赦解讀為美國偏袒與中國有淵源的加密貨幣高層，這有機會令外交工作更複雜。反之，若繼續維持對趙長鵬的定罪，則可能會被指有反華偏見，對華裔成功商人比對西方人更嚴苛。
Industry Implications: What a Pardon Would Mean for Crypto
行業影響：特赦對加密貨幣的意義
For the cryptocurrency industry, the question of whether Trump pardons Changpeng Zhao carries implications far beyond one man's legal status. It speaks to fundamental questions about accountability, the rule of law, and the relationship between innovation and regulation.
對加密貨幣行業來說，特朗普會否特赦趙長鵬，不僅僅關乎一個人的法律地位，更觸及問責、法治以及創新與監管之間的基本問題。
The Accountability Question
問責問題
Crypto's decade-plus existence has been marked by repeated cycles of rapid growth followed by scandal and regulatory crackdown. From Mt. Gox to QuadrigaCX to FTX, the industry has produced numerous examples of exchanges that mishandled customer funds, engaged in fraud, or simply collapsed due to incompetence. In most of these cases, executives faced legal consequences, including prison time.
加密貨幣行業十多年來，不斷經歷高速增長、醜聞與監管打壓的循環。從Mt. Gox到QuadrigaCX再到FTX，業界有不少例子涉及交易所濫用用戶資金、詐騙、或因管理不善倒閉。在大部分案例中，涉事的高層都面臨法律後果，包括入獄。
Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX who orchestrated one of the largest frauds in financial history, was convicted in November 2023 and sentenced to 25 years in prison. His case became a symbol of crypto's need for accountability, with prosecutors successfully arguing that fraud is fraud regardless of whether it involves cryptocurrency or traditional assets.
FTX創辦人Sam Bankman-Fried曾策劃史上最大型的金融詐騙之一，2023年11月被判有罪及入獄25年。他的案件成為整個加密貨幣行業問責呼聲的象徵，檢控官成功論證，不論加密貨幣或傳統金融資產，詐騙就是詐騙。
Zhao's case differed from Bankman-Fried's in significant ways. There were no allegations that Zhao personally stole customer funds or engaged in fraud. His crime was regulatory in nature: failing to maintain adequate systems to prevent money laundering. The $4.3 billion Binance paid represented the corporate penalty for those failures, not restitution to defrauded customers.
趙長鵬的情況與Bankman-Fried有明顯分別。他並沒有被指控盜取用戶資金，亦沒有詐騙行為。他涉及的罪行主要是監管層面──未有設立足夠防止洗黑錢的機制。幣安支付的43億美元是公司層面的罰款，而非歸還受騙用戶的賠償。
Yet prosecutors had argued that Zhao's violations were serious precisely because they involved the infrastructure of money laundering detection. By failing to implement proper controls, Binance allegedly enabled criminals, sanctions violators, and other bad actors to move money through the financial system. The harm was diffuse but potentially enormous.
但檢方強調，趙長鵬的違規行為嚴重，因為洗黑錢偵測屬於金融系統的基礎設施。一旦監管失當，幣安就會成為罪犯、違反制裁的人和其他不法分子進行資金流動的平台，雖然損害未必集中，但潛在風險巨大。
A presidential pardon would effectively eliminate Zhao's personal accountability for these violations. His conviction would be erased, his fine eliminated, and his management ban lifted. He could return to full participation in Binance's operations, resume his position as the face of the exchange, and continue building his crypto empire without the shadow of a criminal record.
若經總統特赦，趙長鵬將毋須為這些違規行為負上個人責任。他的定罪會被抹走，罰款亦會取消，禁任管理層的限制亦會解除。他可以全面回歸幣安營運，重新成為交易所的門面，繼續壯大其加密貨幣事業，身上再無刑事紀錄的陰影。
For critics, this outcome would send a troubling message: that even in cases involving admitted violations of anti-money laundering laws, well-connected executives can escape meaningful consequences if they have the right political relationships and business deals with the president's family.
批評者認為，這會釋放一個極壞信號：即使承認違反反洗黑錢法例，只要有人脈和總統家族的生意來往，高層都可以避過真正懲罰。
For supporters, it would represent a correction of what they see as prosecutorial overreach, acknowledging that Binance and Zhao paid enormous penalties, cooperated with authorities, and implemented reforms that make them safer than many of their competitors.
支持者則視之為對過度檢控的修正，認為幣安及趙長鵬已繳付巨額罰款、積極配合調查並推行改革，比起很多競爭對手更為安全。
The Regulatory Precedent
監管先例
The crypto industry has long complained about regulatory uncertainty in the United States. Companies argue they want to follow the rules but often struggle to understand what those rules are, particularly when different agencies take conflicting positions or apply decades-old laws to cutting-edge technology.
美國加密貨幣行業一直抱怨監管不明朗。企業稱希望守規，但苦於規則混亂，各部門立場不一，或引用過時法律規管新技術。
Trump's election and his subsequent policy decisions have represented an attempt to provide the clarity the industry seeks. The executive orders, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the appointment of crypto-friendly regulators, and the push for comprehensive stablecoin legislation all aim to create a framework in which innovation can flourish under clear rules.
特朗普當選及其後的政策方針，被視為嘗試給業界明確指引。他簽署行政命令、成立比特幣儲備、委任親加密貨幣的監管官員，以及推動穩定幣相關立法，旨在建立激勵創新的明確監管框架。
But a Zhao pardon complicates this narrative. If following the rules means implementing robust anti-money laundering programs and cooperating with law enforcement to detect financial crime, what does it mean when someone who admittedly failed to do those things receives a pardon? Does it suggest that the rules are negotiable? That political connections matter more than compliance?
但特赦趙長鵬卻令故事變得複雜。若守規矩即需落實嚴格的反洗黑錢措施、並配合執法，結果一個明顯違規的人卻可被特赦，那麼規則是否可以談判？是否暗示權力關係比合規更重要？
The crypto industry itself is divided on this question. Some executives and investors see a Zhao pardon as positive for the industry, removing what they view as the stigma of an unjust prosecution and signaling that Trump will protect crypto entrepreneurs from aggressive enforcement. Others worry it will reinforce negative stereotypes about cryptocurrency as a haven for those seeking to evade rules, undermining efforts to bring institutional investors and mainstream adoption.
業界內部對此有分歧。有高層及投資者認為特赦趙長鵬有助去除“不公起訴”的污名，並顯示特朗普願意保護業內創業者免受嚴厲監管。但亦有人擔心，會加深對加密貨幣是“躲避監管者天堂”的負面形象，令吸引機構投資者及主流採納的努力受挫。
There are also questions about how other countries will interpret a Zhao pardon. International cooperation on anti-money laundering enforcement depends on shared standards and consistent application. If the United States pardons a high-profile money laundering case for seemingly political reasons, it could complicate efforts to pursue cross-border financial crimes and undermine U.S. credibility when urging other nations to strengthen their own controls.
特赦趙長鵬亦可能令其他國家如何解讀成疑。國際合作打擊洗黑錢仰賴共同標準與一致執行。如美國以政治理由特赦一宗大案，可能影響跨境打擊金融犯罪的努力，令美方在呼籲其他國家加強監管時失去說服力。
The Succession Question
接班及管治問題
Beyond the symbolic and regulatory implications, a pardon would have practical effects on Binance's future. Zhao remains the exchange's largest shareholder despite having stepped down as CEO. His estimated stake in Binance and holdings of BNB token make him one of the wealthiest people in the cryptocurrency industry.
除了象徵意義及監管影響，特赦亦會對幣安未來帶來實際作用。趙長鵬雖然辭去CEO，但仍是交易所最大股東；他在幣安及BNB代幣的持股估值，令他成為加密貨幣界最富有人物之一。
Current restrictions prohibit Zhao from managing Binance or having operational involvement for three years. If those restrictions were lifted by a pardon, he could theoretically return to an active role at the company. Whether he would actually do so is unclear, given his statements suggesting he wants to focus on other ventures, including education and investments in crypto-related startups.
現時，他被禁止參與幣安營運或管理三年。若因特赦解除這些限制，理論上他可以重掌實權。但他早前曾表明有意投身其他項目，如教育或投資等，會否回歸幣安尚屬未知之數。
But even without formal operational control, Zhao's influence over Binance would be substantial if his legal troubles were resolved. He would be free to advocate publicly for the company, engage with regulators on its behalf, and leverage his relationships with governments and institutional investors. The three years during which Richard Teng has been building his own leadership credibility would give way to renewed questions about who really runs Binance.
即使沒有實際營運權，只要法律問題解決，趙長鵬對幣安的影響依然巨大。他可公開為公司發聲，並代表與監管部門溝通，亦可以動用他與政府和機構投資者的關係。Richard Teng累積的三年領袖聲譽，亦難免被外界再質疑究竟誰是幣安真正主事人。
For Binance's competitors, a Zhao pardon represents both a threat and an opportunity. It would restore to active participation one of the most effective entrepreneurs in crypto history, someone who built a dominant exchange by moving faster and taking more risks than cautious competitors. But it would also highlight the degree to which Binance's success has been tied to relationships with the Trump administration and political deal-making rather than superior products or compliance.
對幣安競爭者而言，特赦趙長鵬既是威脅亦是機會。這會讓一個在加密貨幣創業史上極具實力的人重新活躍──以比對手敢衝敢拼為本建立霸業。但此舉同時突顯，幣安成功很大程度上與特朗普政府關係及政治交易有關，而非產品或合規表現超卓。
Expert Perspectives: Legal and Policy Analysis
專家觀點：法律及政策分析
Legal scholars and policy experts who study presidential pardons and financial regulation have offered mixed views on the prospect of a Zhao pardon.
研究總統特赦及金融監管的法律學者和政策專家，對特赦趙長鵬的前景有不同看法。
Some constitutional law professors note that while the pardon power is nearly absolute, its use in cases involving clear conflicts of interest raises serious ethical concerns even if legally permissible. If Trump pardons someone whose company is engaged in multibillion-dollar deals that benefit Trump family businesses, they argue, it creates at minimum the appearance of corruption and potentially violates the emoluments clause's spirit, if not its letter.
有憲法學者指出，雖然總統特赦權幾乎是絕對的，但若用於明顯利益衝突的案例，縱使合法也會引起嚴重道德爭議。他們表示，若特朗普特赦一名其公司與特朗普家族生意有巨額合作的人，無論如何，最少都會帶來貪污的觀感，甚至可能違反利益條款（emoluments clause）的精神，即使未違法。
Former federal prosecutors point out that the Justice Department's case against Zhao was solid, based on his own admissions and supported by extensive evidence of Binance's compliance failures. Unlike some controversial prosecutions where the underlying conduct is debatable, Zhao pleaded guilty to clear violations of well-established law. Pardoning him would not be correcting a miscarriage of justice but rather eliminating consequences for admitted criminal conduct.
前聯邦檢控官指出，司法部起訴趙長鵬的案件理據充分，除了他自己認罪，還有大量幣安合規失誤的證據。不同於一些爭議案件涉案行為成疑，趙長鵬是明確違法，並承認有罪。特赦他並非矯正冤獄，而是抹消已承認的罪行後果。
Former regulators emphasize the message a pardon would send to other cryptocurrency exchanges and financial institutions. If even after paying billions in penalties and serving prison time, a well-connected executive can have his conviction erased, what incentive do others have to prioritize compliance over growth? The deterrent effect of the Binance prosecution would be substantially undermined.
前監管官員強調，特赦將釋放一個信息予其他加密貨幣交易所及金融機構：即使賠大額罰款兼坐監，只要有權有人脈都可以洗白罪名，還有誰會願意為合規冒風險損失增長？幣安案帶來的阻嚇作用將大打折扣。
Crypto industry advocates offer a different perspective. They point to the fact that Zhao's case involved a charge rarely prosecuted as a standalone crime. The Bank Secrecy Act violations were not accompanied by allegations of fraud, theft, or direct participation in money laundering. Compared to cases like FTX, where customers lost billions to outright fraud, or Silk Road, which facilitated serious criminal activity, Zhao's offense was primarily regulatory in nature.
但業界支持者則持不同看法。他們指出，趙案的控罪屬極少被單獨起訴的法例──違反《銀行保密法》（Bank Secrecy Act），沒有涉及詐騙、盜竊或直接參與洗黑錢。與FTX致用戶損失數十億、Silk Road嚴重犯罪案相比，趙的罪責主要屬監管層面。
They also argue that the $4.3 billion corporate penalty plus Zhao's personal fine and prison time already represent substantial punishment. The question is not whether there should be consequences but whether those consequences are proportionate and whether additional deterrence through maintaining a criminal
他們亦認為，43億美元公司罰款，加上趙個人罰款及服刑，已屬嚴重懲罰。問題不在於應否有後果，而是這些懲罰是否成比例，以及保留刑事紀錄是否能有效增加阻嚇...conviction serves any purpose.
判決本身是否具備任何實際意義。
National security experts raise concerns about the international implications. Binance processed transactions for users in sanctioned jurisdictions, potentially undermining U.S. foreign policy objectives and sanctions enforcement. Pardoning the executive responsible for those compliance failures could signal to foreign adversaries that the United States is not serious about enforcing its own sanctions regime, particularly when business interests are involved.
國家安全專家對其國際影響表示關注。Binance（幣安）曾為受制裁地區的用戶處理交易，有可能削弱美國的外交政策目標及制裁執行的嚴肅性。如果對負責該些合規失誤的高層人員給予赦免，可能會向外國對手釋出訊號，認為美國在執行自身制裁政策方面並不認真，尤其當中涉及商業利益時更加如此。
Ethics watchdogs focus on the process by which pardon decisions are made. Traditionally, the Justice Department's Office of the Pardon Attorney reviews clemency applications, conducting investigations and making recommendations. Trump has often bypassed this process, granting pardons based on personal relationships, lobbying by friends and allies, or political considerations. If Zhao's pardon is granted without proper review, it would continue this pattern and further erode norms around the use of executive clemency.
道德監察團體聚焦於赦免決定的程序。傳統上，司法部赦免律師辦公室會負責審核申請、進行調查並作出建議。特朗普時常繞過這個程序，根據個人關係、朋友及盟友的游說、或是政治考慮來批出赦免。如果趙長鵬的赦免申請在未經妥善審核下獲批，這將延續過去的做法，進一步侵蝕對行政赦免運用的規範。
Looking Ahead: Possible Outcomes and Their Consequences
展望未來：可能的結果及其後果
As of mid-October 2025, several scenarios remain possible regarding Changpeng Zhao's pardon application.
截至2025年十月中旬，有關趙長鵬的赦免申請仍有多種可能情景。
Scenario One: Full Pardon Granted Soon
情景一：很快獲全面赦免
If Trump grants a full and unconditional pardon to Zhao in the near term, the immediate effects would be dramatic. Zhao's criminal conviction would be erased, his $50 million fine eliminated, and his management ban lifted. He could immediately resume any level of involvement with Binance he chose, potentially returning as an advisor or even board member if the company's corporate governance allowed.
如果特朗普短期內向趙長鵬頒布完全及無條件的赦免，短期內的效應將會非常顯著。趙長鵬的刑事定罪會被抹去，5,000萬美元的罰款會被撤銷，他的管理禁令亦會立即解除。他可即時恢復參與幣安的任何層面，若公司管治容許，更有可能回歸擔任顧問或董事。
The crypto market would likely respond positively in the short term, viewing the pardon as confirmation that the Trump administration is serious about supporting the industry and willing to revisit what many in crypto see as Biden-era overreach. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies might rally on the news, particularly if the pardon were coupled with additional pro-crypto policy announcements.
加密貨幣市場短期內可能會正面反應，把赦免視為特朗普政府認真支持行業，並有意重新審視加密界普遍視為拜登時代「過度執法」的信號。比特幣及其他主流加密貨幣或會因應消息而上升，尤其是赦免若配合更多支持加密政策的宣佈。
But the medium-term consequences could be more mixed. Democratic members of Congress would likely launch investigations into the decision, demanding records about communications between Binance, the Trump family, and White House officials. New legislation could be introduced to restrict presidential pardon power in cases involving conflicts of interest, though such legislation would face significant constitutional hurdles.
但中期後果可能複雜得多。國會內的民主黨議員大概率會就此決定展開調查，要求提供幣安、特朗普家族及白宮官員的相關通訊紀錄。或會有新立法嘗試限制總統於涉及利益衝突案件中的赦免權，但相關法例將面臨重大的憲法挑戰。
International regulators might respond by tightening oversight of Binance in their jurisdictions, concerned that the exchange's relationship with the U.S. government is based on political connections rather than compliance improvements. This could complicate Binance's efforts to expand in major markets.
國際監管機構或會因此在其地區收緊對幣安的監察，顧慮該平台與美國政府的關係更多是出自政治連結，而非真正的合規改進。這將令幣安於主要市場的擴展面對更多困難。
Scenario Two: Conditional Clemency or Delayed Decision
情景二：有條件赦免或推遲決定
Trump might choose a middle path, either granting partial clemency (such as eliminating the fine but not the conviction) or deferring any decision until after the three-year compliance monitoring period ends. This approach would allow him to signal support for Zhao without immediately facing the political blowback of a full pardon during a period of intense scrutiny over Trump family business dealings.
特朗普可能選擇中間路線，例如只部分赦免（比如取消罰款但保留定罪）、又或將決定推遲至三年合規監管期屆滿之後。這樣既能向趙長鵬表示支持，同時亦可避免在特朗普家族商業利益受嚴格審視的時期即時面對全面赦免所帶來的政治反彈。
A conditional approach might also include requirements that Zhao maintain distance from Binance's operations, continue cooperating with authorities, or meet certain compliance benchmarks. This would parallel some historical clemency grants where presidents imposed conditions to address concerns while still providing relief to the convicted individual.
有條件的方案還可能包括要求趙與幣安的運作保持距離、繼續與當局合作、或達到指定合規標準。這與歷史上一些帶條件赦免的案例類似，總統會施加要求，以同時回應社會關注並向被定罪者提供緩解。
This outcome would likely frustrate both Zhao's supporters (who want full vindication) and his critics (who see any clemency as inappropriate). The crypto market reaction would depend on specifics, but would probably be more muted than a full pardon.
這種結果大概會令趙的支持者（希望他完全洗脫罪名）及批評者（認為任何赦免都不當）皆感失望。加密市場的反應則會視乎細節，但相對全面赦免應會較為淡定。
Scenario Three: No Pardon
情景三：拒絕赦免
Trump could simply decline to grant a pardon, either explicitly or by allowing Zhao's application to languish indefinitely. This outcome might reflect concerns about political optics, resistance from Justice Department officials who worked on the case, or calculation that the controversy outweighs any benefits.
特朗普也可能明確拒絕，或讓趙的申請無限期擱置。此舉或反映他對政治形象的顧慮、處理此案的司法部官員的反對，或是因計算得失後認為爭議大過得益。
A denial would be a significant defeat for Zhao personally, leaving him with a criminal conviction and all its attendant consequences. For the crypto industry, it would send a message that even with a crypto-friendly administration, there are limits to how much prior enforcement actions will be revisited.
拒絕赦免對趙本人而言是重大挫敗，令他一直帶着刑事犯罪的烙印及相關後果。對行業而言，此舉則釋出訊號：即使政府友好加密，過去的執法行動亦未必會全面推翻。
However, even without a pardon, Zhao's management ban will expire in November 2026 based on the three-year term from the November 2023 settlement. At that point, absent other restrictions, he would be free to resume involvement with Binance. The question is whether the conviction itself, which would remain on his record, would effectively bar him from certain activities or relationships.
不過，即使沒有赦免，按2023年11月的和解協議，趙的管理禁令也會在2026年11月期滿。屆時如果沒有其他限制，他便可重新參與幣安的事務。疑問在於，其刑事定罪會否實質繼續限制他從事某些活動或建立某些合作關係。
Scenario Four: Post-Term Pardon
情景四：任期尾聲才赦免
Trump could wait until late in his term, as many presidents do with controversial pardons, to grant clemency to Zhao. This approach would minimize immediate political fallout while still delivering on what some Trump advisors view as a commitment to the crypto industry.
特朗普亦可能照一般總統做法，等任期即將完結時才批出具爭議性的赦免。這樣可減少即時的政治反彈，同時回應部分特朗普顧問認為要對加密產業履行承諾的壓力。
Historically, presidents have often saved their most controversial pardons for the final days in office, when political consequences are minimized. Bill Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich came on his last day as president. Trump's first-term pardons of allies and supporters were concentrated in his final weeks.
過去歷史上，總統經常將最富爭議的赦免安排在任期最後時刻，因為那時的政治後果最低。比爾·克林頓赦免Marc Rich正是總統任期最後一天發生。特朗普首任期內亦將多位盟友及支持者的赦免集中在最後幾周。
A late-term Zhao pardon would be less explosive than an immediate one but would still raise the same fundamental questions about conflicts of interest and the proper use of executive clemency. It might be paired with pardons for other crypto figures, presented as part of a broader effort to correct what Trump characterizes as the Biden administration's anti-crypto enforcement.
如果趙的赦免在任期末才發生，爆炸性雖會較低，但仍然會引發相同的利益衝突及行政赦免正當性問題。這種做法或會配合對其他加密領袖的赦免，共同包裝成糾正文班政府「反加密執法」的一部分。
The Broader Context: Crypto at a Crossroads
更廣泛的背景：加密貨幣的十字路口
The question of whether to pardon Changpeng Zhao sits within a broader debate about cryptocurrency's future in the United States and globally.
是否應對趙長鵬給予赦免，其實反映著美國及全球就加密貨幣未來發展上的激烈討論。
After more than a decade of existence, digital assets remain controversial and polarizing. Proponents see transformative potential: technology that could democratize finance, provide banking services to the unbanked, enable programmable money, and create new forms of digital ownership and value transfer. Skeptics see primarily speculation, fraud, environmental damage from energy-intensive mining, and a technology used primarily for crime and sanctions evasion.
經過超過十年的發展，數碼資產依然極具爭議性且分歧嚴重。支持者認為其潛力巨大：可實現金融民主化，為無銀行服務者提供工具，賦予貨幣可編程能力，亦創造全新數碼擁有權及價值流通形式。懷疑者則認為其主要是炒賣、詐騙、高耗能挖礦導致環保損害，以及被用來犯罪與規避制裁。
The truth, as often, lies somewhere between these extremes. Cryptocurrency has enabled both innovation and fraud, both financial inclusion and financial crime, both technological progress and speculative excess.
事實往往介乎於兩極之間。加密貨幣既推動了創新，又助長了騙局，既促進金融包容，又滋生金融犯罪，既是技術進步的體現，亦難免投機過度。
Trump's approach represents a bet that the United States should embrace crypto despite its risks, establishing clear rules while allowing innovation to flourish. This stands in stark contrast to approaches taken by some other major economies, particularly China, which has banned cryptocurrency trading and mining while developing its own government-controlled digital currency.
特朗普的策略可視為美國押注加密貨幣，願意承受其風險，同時設立清晰規則、促進創新。這與部分大型經濟體（如中國全面禁絕加密交易和挖礦、同時推出國控數碼貨幣）的取態形成強烈對比。
But Trump's approach faces a credibility problem if it appears that the rules apply differently depending on political connections and business relationships. The whole point of rule of law is that similar cases are treated similarly, regardless of who is involved. When a president pardons someone whose company pays millions to his family's businesses, it's hard to maintain that rules are being applied consistently.
然而，若特朗普的做法給人感覺規則因政治人脈或商業關係而可靈活運用，便會導致公信力危機。法治精神正是無論誰涉案、同類案件都應一視同仁。如果總統赦免了一名所屬公司曾支付巨款予其家族生意的高管，難以令人信服相關規則獲一貫執行。
This credibility challenge extends beyond Zhao's specific case. If the Trump administration appears to be operating a pay-to-play system where favorable regulatory treatment goes to companies that do business with Trump family ventures, it will undermine efforts to bring institutional capital and mainstream adoption to cryptocurrency. Traditional financial institutions and their compliance departments will be reluctant to enter a market that looks like it's driven by cronyism rather than transparent rules.
這種公信力問題遠超趙個案本身。如果特朗普政府予人付費通行的印象，讓有做Trump家族生意的企業獲享監管優惠，將打擊產業吸納機構資本及主流採用的努力。傳統金融機構及合規部門會猶豫是否進入一個由裙帶關係而非透明規則主導的市場。
Conversely, if Trump can demonstrate that his crypto policies are based on principle rather than profit, if regulatory decisions are made on the merits rather than political considerations, and if enforcement is fair and consistent, the United States could genuinely become a leader in digital asset innovation while maintaining appropriate guardrails against crime and abuse.
相反，如特朗普能證明其加密政策係建立於原則而非利益，如監管決定以事理為本、而非政治考慮，如執法公平而一致，美國則有機會在維持防罪防濫的同時，真正成為數碼資產創新的領袖。
The Zhao pardon decision, whenever it comes, will be seen as a test of which version of Trump's crypto policy is real.
無論趙的赦免決定何時作出，屆時都會被視為測試：特朗普加密政策到底是真重原則，還是利益當前。
Conclusion: High Stakes, Uncertain Outcome
結論：風險極高，結果未卜
As October 2025 draws to a close, Changpeng Zhao's fate remains uncertain. The man who built the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange sits in a kind of limbo, legally free but professionally restricted, waiting to learn whether the President of the United States will grant him clemency.
隨着2025年10月即將結束，趙長鵬的前途仍充滿變數。這位建立全球最大加密貨幣交易平台的人，現時居於一種法律自由、職業受限的狀態，等待美國總統決定會否赦免自己。
The decision, when it comes, will reverberate far beyond one individual's legal status. It will help define the Trump administration's approach to cryptocurrency, test the boundaries between public policy and private profit, and shape how the world understands America's commitment to rule of law in an age of digital finance.
一旦決定出爐，影響將遠不止於某一個人的法律地位。它會進一步界定特朗普政府的加密貨幣政策，檢驗公共政策與私人利益的界線，並塑造全球對美國在數碼金融時代法治承諾的理解。
For Trump, the calculation is complex. A pardon would delight many in the crypto industry, fulfill what some advisors see as a commitment to revisit Biden-era enforcement, and potentially benefit family businesses engaged with Binance. But it would also generate intense criticism, invite congressional investigations, and create a defining example of potential corruption that could haunt the administration.
對特朗普而言，這是一盤複雜的棋。赦免會令加密業內很多人歡欣，並實現部分顧問心目中「糾正拜登年代執法問題」的承諾，更可能令家族生意（與幣安有往來者）得益。但同時必然會引來強烈批評、國會調查，並成為政府貪腐風險的代表案例，日後糾纏不清。
For Zhao, the stakes are intensely personal. A pardon would restore his reputation, eliminate his criminal conviction, and allow him to fully resume the entrepreneurial activities he built his career on. Denial would leave him with the stigma of a felony conviction, however much he might argue the prosecution was unjust.
對趙來說，這牽涉極大個人利害。赦免可還其名聲、洗掉刑事紀錄，令他重新全心投入自己辛苦建立多年的創業領域。被拒則將一直背負重罪污名，即使他極力爭辯自己不公被訴。
For the cryptocurrency
對加密貨幣……industry, the decision will send a signal about what kind of accountability leaders face when they prioritize growth over compliance. It will influence how other countries view American crypto regulation and shape the industry's efforts to achieve mainstream legitimacy.
至於市場本身，已經因地緣政治緊張、監管不明朗，以及周期性信心危機受到重創，特赦辯論再成為影響加密貨幣未來走向的複雜方程式中的另一個變數。
唯一可以確定的是，無論特朗普作出甚麼決定，這都將帶來重大後果、引起爭議，並會被所有關注加密貨幣未來利益的人士密切留意。在這個以波動和不確定性為本的行業裡，也許這並不令人意外。