Solana vs Base vs zkSync：2025牛市終極L1對決L2大戰

加密貨幣市場的周期性「牛市」總會造就新的贏家 —— 那些在用戶量、價值及關注度上迅速崛起的平台。隨著市場對下一波牛市逐步醞釀，對於加密愛好者及投資者而言，關鍵問題在於：哪個區塊鏈網絡將成為焦點？上一輪周期中，像Solana這樣的替代Layer-1 (L1) 區塊鏈曾經憑挑戰 Ethereum的霸主地位 而成為市場話題。

如今，以太坊本身亦孕育出強大的Layer-2 (L2) 網絡，令整體競爭格局更趨激烈。討論中經常出現的三個名字正是Solana、Base和zkSync。三者各自代表不同方向：Solana是高吞吐量的獨立L1，Base是Coinbase孵化的以太坊L2，而zkSync則屬於前沿的零知識rollup。這三大平台進入新一輪牛市前各自積聚動力、展現獨特優勢。

本文深度剖析Solana、Base與zkSync，檢視其技術基礎、生態系統、最新表現及發展前景。我們會就L1（如Solana）和L2方案（如Base及zkSync）進行對比分析，探討誰最有望主導未來牛市，全程以事實和數據為本，避免僅憑炒作判斷。從用戶量爆炸性增長、開發者參與以至實際應用場景，帶來全面且有洞見的行業解讀。在加密圈中，炒作往往易令人判斷失誤，我們將嚴依趨勢和數據來評估，找出未來有機會領跑的贏家。首先，理解這幾大對手及其重要性。

Solana：高速選手強勢復甦

Solana於2020年崛起，是一條高性能L1公鏈，憑獨特架構試圖解決區塊鏈「三難困境」。它結合Proof of History（加密時序證明）及Proof of Stake，實現極速出塊（約400毫秒）及理論上每秒可處理數萬筆交易。於2021年牛市期間，Solana因原生幣SOL大升值及吸引大量DeFi和NFT項目而聲名大噪。然而，隨即也迎來成長痛，包括網絡多次中斷及FTX倒閉（FTX曾是Solana重要支持者）後的衝擊，令外界質疑其網絡彈性。

轉眼來到2023-2024年，Solana策動華麗反彈。截至2024年底，Solana網絡活動及生態數據均創新高，顯示公鏈不僅重拾穩定，更見繁榮。舉例，2024年底某日，Solana單日交易量達6,690萬宗，創下歷史新紀錄，更「超越其他主流公鏈總和」。在牛市期間，這種處理量尤顯重要，因為用戶普遍湧入。Solana以極快確認及超低費用，帶動鏈上零售交易活動復甦。到2025年1月，DefiLlama數據顯示，Solana 24小時去中心化交易所（DEX）成交額達38億美元，甚至高於同期以太坊及Base的DEX總和。換句話說，Solana日內處理的DeFi交易量已超越以太坊主網及其最活躍L2，展現對高頻炒家和流動性提供者的吸引力。

鏈上交易激增，部分來自Solana擅長承載的*「degen」零售熱潮。2024年，Solana成為memecoin狂熱發源地，更興起AI主題新代幣，大批投機者湧入Solana DeFi平台。Solana龍頭DEX Raydium於2024年單日交易量飆升10倍以上，一度甚至超越以太坊Uniswap月成交額。市場上的memecoin（Pump.fun發布平台及各類病毒式代幣）推動此熱潮 —— Grayscale Research指出，「隨著炒作升溫，零售參與者愈來愈多首次透過Solana接觸加密市場，特別關注Solana類memecoin及AI新幣。」* 此等循環式炒作顯示Solana有極強能力於狂熱市況吸納零售市場注意，更帶動其DeFi生態實質增長。到2024年底，Solana總鎖倉價值（TVL）由年初約14億美元狂升至約95億美元，年內漲幅接近五倍，反映項目再次吸納大批流動性，重拾頭部DeFi公鏈地位。

除了數據領先，Solana技術層面亦針對過往問題積極改善。從2023年中起，Solana網絡穩定性巨大提升，上線達99.9%或以上，遠超2021-2022年間的偶發中斷（多項升級及節點管理已奏效）。同時，Solana推出了由Jump Crypto開發的第二個獨立驗證客戶端「Firedancer」，目標強化性能及網絡韌性。在Solana Breakpoint大會上，Firedancer於測試環境下創出每秒百萬宗交易的驚人表現。當然，這屬於離線測試數據，目前主網尚未達到，但展現出未來高效潛力。按設計，Firedancer的全速潛能需更多驗證節點運行（目前大部分仍以原生Agave客戶端為主）。即使如此，增量效益已逐步展現。到2025年中，約10%驗證者已用上「Frankendancer」混合模式，將Firedancer與原有客戶端結合，謹慎推進效能提升，同時避免共識風險。多客戶端生態不但提升處理量，更令軟件層面去中心化，消除單點故障。Solana節點遍佈2000多個全球國家，進一步增強分布性（雖帶來訊息傳播延遲）。核心取捨在於：Solana以速度為重（驗證硬件需求較高），而以太坊及L2則追求極致去中心化。Solana賭注在於，通過軟硬件優化（如Firedancer），有望於公鏈用戶下實現網絡級表現而無損安全性與活躍度。

Solana復甦背後，開發者及機構興趣也是一大支柱。雖然2022年動盪，但吸引力未減，反遭更多新開發者青睞。Electric Capital業界報告指出，2024年Solana新增開發人數高達7,625人，居全行業之冠甚至自2016年以來首次超越以太坊。由此可見，Solana極具吸引力：開發者受惠於超低費及高速執行力，能推動DeFi、遊戲及AI整合創新應用。機構也逐漸進場參與：2024年，富蘭克林坦普頓在Solana發行代幣化貨幣基金，法國興業銀行亦於其網絡發行代幣化債券，展示對Solana技術底層的信心。美國Cboe Global Markets申請有關Solana的投資產品（ETF），Robinhood零售券商亦增加對SOL的交易支援，從而強化其流動性及存續力。

總結而言，Solana作為經過牛熊考驗的L1，再次逐步回歸主舞台。其極致速度及超低成本令其於2024年底處理鏈上交易及活躍錢包數遠超多數其他公鏈，生態同時兼顧*「degen」*零售熱度（memecoin、NFT、遊戲）及嚴肅應用（機構資產、經Solana Pay整合Shopify的支付等），這種組合於牛市時期有望加快大規模應用。唯一疑問是：Solana可否維持高壓負載下的穩定性，及當以太坊/L2陣營再升級時吸引流動性的能力。可預見競爭將會激烈，尤其是來自新崛起的L2網絡。

Base：Coinbase領軍的L2，助以太坊大規模普及

Base是區塊鏈新秀，但一登場已引起市場注意。2023年8月上線，Base屬於由美國最大加密交易所Coinbase孵化的以太坊Layer-2網絡。技術上，Base建立在Optimism的「OP Stack」上，是optimistic rollup，即將交易先批量處理於鏈下，再週期性寫入以太坊確保安全。Base雖欠缺突破性技術，但憑Coinbase強大聲譽、龐大用戶群及宣傳實力取勝。有業界評論指，在以太坊擴容賽中，*「市場營銷及資金實力」*或許比創新技術更能決定勝負。Coinbase動用過億交易所用戶為Base帶來網絡效應，將其與交易所產品深入整合，並策劃多次話題宣傳活動。

上線之初，Base定位明確，主打大眾友好… on-ramp to the on-chain world. It launched without a native token, a deliberate choice to emphasize usage over speculation and to avoid regulatory uncertainty. Instead of token incentives, Coinbase used its platform to drive adoption – for example, during “Onchain Summer” in 2023, Base hosted a series of NFT mints, token giveaways, and app launches that drew massive participation. Over 2 million unique wallets took part in Base’s Onchain Summer, minting NFTs and interacting with dApps, resulting in over $5 million in fees minted to creators. This campaign was a marketing triumph, effectively turning Coinbase’s millions of users into L2 users almost overnight. The ease of onboarding was a big factor: users could seamlessly bridge assets from their Coinbase accounts into Base with a couple of clicks, using Coinbase’s custody as a bridge. Moreover, Coinbase introduced a smart contract wallet for Base users that eliminated the need to manage seed phrases, making the experience closer to a typical fintech app than a fiddling with MetaMask. This streamlined UX helped ordinary users dip their toes into decentralized apps (dApps) on Base, fulfilling one of Coinbase’s goals to “bring the next billion users onchain.”

作為連接鏈上世界的入門門檻，Base 啟動時沒有發行原生代幣，這是有意的選擇，旨在強調實際用途多於投機，同時避免監管不確定性。Coinbase 並沒有用代幣激勵，而是利用自家平台推動採用 —— 例如，在 2023 年「Onchain Summer」期間，Base 舉辦了一連串 NFT 鑄造、代幣空投和應用程式上線，吸引大量用戶參與。有超過 200 萬個獨立錢包參與了 Base 的 Onchain Summer，他們鑄造 NFT 及與 dApp 互動，為創作者帶來超過 500 萬美元的費用收入。這次活動是一場市場推廣上的勝利，實際上幾乎一夜之間將 Coinbase 數百萬用戶變成 L2 用戶。登陸流程的簡便亦成為關鍵因素：用戶只需點擊數下，就可以直接將資產由 Coinbase 帳戶轉到 Base，利用 Coinbase 的託管服務作橋樑。此外，Coinbase 更為 Base 用戶推出智能合約錢包，省卻了管理助記詞的煩惱，令體驗更貼近一般金融科技應用，而非像以往一樣要玩弄 MetaMask。這種優化的用戶體驗，令普通人都可以輕鬆嘗試於 Base 上使用去中心化應用，有助 Coinbase 達成「將下一個十億用戶帶到鏈上」的目標之一。

If those were the initial conditions, Base’s growth metrics over the next year speak volumes about its momentum. By late 2024, Base had rocketed up the L2 charts to become one of the top rollups on Ethereum. In fact, as of Q4 2024, Base had captured roughly an 18% market share of all L2 networks by total value locked, second only to Arbitrum One. This was a stunning rise past established networks like Optimism (which created the OP Stack Base runs on), Polygon’s sidechain, and others. According to L2Beat data, Base’s ascent made it the No. 2 layer-2 by locked value and activity within months of launch. Part of this success can be attributed to timing – Base launched into an environment where Ethereum users were ready for more scalable solutions, and it immediately offered a familiar but faster/cheaper venue. However, Coinbase’s relentless push was the special ingredient. As one analysis put it, “Base appears to [be] out-gunning other secondary Ethereum networks” in user acquisition and activity.

如果這些是起初的條件，之後一年 Base 的增長數據就已經充分說明了其發展勢頭。到 2024 年底，Base 已經躍升為以太坊上其中一個頂級 rollups。事實上，截至 2024 年第四季，按總鎖倉價值計算，Base 於所有 L2 網絡中佔有約 18% 市場份額，僅次於 Arbitrum One。這個升勢超越了許多原本已建立的網絡，例如 Optimism（即 OP Stack 的原創者，Base 正是建基於此）、Polygon 側鏈等。根據 L2Beat 數據，Base 在推出後短短數月內便成為第二大 L2，無論是鎖倉金額還是用戶活動量。這部份成功固然與時勢有關——Base 上線時，以太坊用戶正急需更具可擴展性的解決方案，而它當時馬上提供了一個既熟悉又更快更便宜的平台。不過，Coinbase 的持續推動才是關鍵要素。正如一份分析所說，「Base 似乎在用戶獲取及活動方面，已經壓倒了其他次級以太坊網絡」。

The network data backs that claim robustly. Consider transaction activity: by the end of 2024, Base was handling on the order of 8 million transactions per day, often more transactions than all other major L2s combined. Base reached a peak daily throughput of 8.8 million transactions, far above the next busiest L2s (Arbitrum, Optimism) which together were around 5.5 million at their peak. On average in Q4 2024, Base accounted for nearly 48% of all transactions happening on Ethereum Layer-2s – basically as much as all other L2s put together. To put it in perspective, Ethereum mainnet processes ~1 to 1.5 million transactions a day; Base by itself was doing almost 5× Ethereum’s throughput on an average day in late 2024. This highlights how L2s like Base have truly taken the scalability mantle – something crucial for the next bull run when Ethereum L1 gas fees might spike, pushing even more activity to L2s. Base’s surge in usage was not a short-lived spike either; it “retained its growth momentum for the whole year” in 2024. The initial buzz from Onchain Summer evolved into sustained activity driven by various applications on Base.

這項說法從網絡數據可以得到有力證明。以交易活動為例：到 2024 年底，Base 每日處理約 800 萬宗交易，很多時候數字甚至超越所有其他主要 L2 加起來。Base 的單日交易高峰達到 880 萬宗，遠超第二繁忙的 L2（Arbitrum、Optimism），兩者加起來高峰時只有約 550 萬宗。在 2024 年第四季，Base 平均佔了以太坊所有 L2 交易數的近 48%——幾乎等於所有其他 L2 合計。換個角度看，以太坊主網每日至處理約 100 萬至 150 萬筆交易；而僅僅是 Base，2024 年底的平均日交易量就已經是主網近 5 倍。這凸顯了 Base 等 L2 在可擴展性方面已真正擔起大旗—— 對於即將到來的牛市，這頗為重要，因為以太坊 L1 的 gas 費隨時大幅飆升，帶動更多活動轉向 L2。Base 的使用激增亦並非曇花一現；2024 年「全年都保持住增長勢頭」。Onchain Summer 初期的熱潮，更進一步轉化為多個應用帶來的持續活躍。

What are those applications? Base’s ecosystem, while still maturing, has seen a mix of DeFi, social apps, and novel “Web3” experiments flourish. Decentralized finance on Base got a head start with projects like Aerodrome Finance (an automated market maker) drawing liquidity. Aerodrome became Base’s largest DeFi protocol, focusing on trading pools – notably, many of its top markets were memecoin-related trading pools, suggesting speculative trading found a home on Base too. In terms of total value locked, Base’s TVL grew from about $440 million in January 2024 to $2.5 billion by October 2024, a 470% increase that reflected confidence from liquidity providers. By October, Base had even surpassed Arbitrum in TVL, reaching $2.49B to claim the top spot among optimistic rollups. Another huge driver was the emergence of social applications that went viral on Base. Notably, in mid-2023 a platform called Friend.tech (a social token app) took off on Base, spurring activity as users traded “shares” of social media personalities. That early experiment foreshadowed Base’s later focus on “SocialFi.” In mid-2025, Coinbase doubled down on this concept by rebranding its Coinbase Wallet app into “Base App” with integrated social features, fueling a new boom. A social network protocol called Zora launched “creator coins” on Base – where every user post could be turned into a token – and this innovation sent Base’s usage into overdrive again. By August 2025, Base was reportedly minting more new tokens per day than Solana, as Zora’s creator coins took off and nearly 3 million traders flocked to trade these micro-tokens. Dune Analytics data at that time showed Base overtaking Solana in daily token launches, signaling how quickly Base can capitalize on new trends. In a matter of weeks post-rebrand, over 1.6 million “creator coins” had been minted and $470 million in volume traded on Zora via Base. This “SocialFi” mania demonstrated Base’s adaptability – from DeFi to NFTs to social tokens, it became a versatile platform for whatever concept is buzzing in crypto communities.

那 Base 上有甚麼應用？雖然 Base 生態系統仍在發展階段，已經湧現了不少 DeFi、社交應用同新型 Web3 實驗。Base 上的去中心化金融（DeFi）由於有 Aerodrome Finance（自動化做市商）等項目率先導入流動性，領先起跑。Aerodrome 成為 Base 最大的 DeFi 協議，專注做交易池 —— 值得留意，當中不少主要市場是 memecoin 相關交易池，證明炒作投機亦在 Base 找到新天地。以總鎖倉金額計，Base 的 TVL 由 2024 年 1 月的約 4.4 億美元，升至 2024 年 10 月的 25 億美元——增幅達 470%，反映流動性提供者的信心。至 10 月時，Base 甚至在 TVL 上超越 Arbitrum，以 24.9 億美元成為最大 optimistic rollup。另一個重大推手是社交應用在 Base 上爆紅。例如 2023 年年中，有個叫 Friend.tech（社交代幣 app）的平台在 Base 成功起飛，因為用戶可以炒賣網紅的分享權益，激發大量互動。這個前期實驗預示了日後 Base 會重點發展 「SocialFi」。2025 年年中，Coinbase 進一步鞏固這方向，把 Coinbase Wallet 重新命名為「Base App」，並加入社交元素，推動新一輪熱潮。一個叫 Zora 的社交網絡協議，更在 Base 推出「creator coin」，即每個用戶帖文都可以變成一枚代幣，創新玩法再飆高 Base 使用量。2025 年 8 月，據指 Base 每日鑄造新代幣數量已超越 Solana，Zora 的 creator coin 爆紅，近 300 萬用戶湧入炒賣這類迷你代幣。當時 Dune Analytics 數據顯示 Base 的每日新代幣發行已追過 Solana，反映 Base 能夠極速捕捉新風潮。重新命名後短短數星期，經 Base 在 Zora 已鑄造超過 160 萬隻 creator coin、成交額達 4.7 億美元。這場「SocialFi」熱潮，證明 Base 適應力強，由 DeFi、NFT 以至社交代幣，成為加密社群任何熱話概念的萬用平台。

Underpinning Base’s growth is also the advantage of Ethereum compatibility and security. As a rollup, Base posts its data to Ethereum, ultimately inheriting Ethereum’s battle-tested security model. Users can trust that even if Base’s validator (sequencer) experiences issues, their funds are secured by Ethereum’s consensus (though optimistic rollups do have a challenge period for fraud proofs). Thus, Base offers a blend of speed and low fees with the reassurance of Ethereum’s security – a key point for risk-aware users and institutions. In fact, Base attracted the attention of traditional finance early on: in 2024 Franklin Templeton chose Base to launch the first tokenized U.S. government money fund by a major asset manager, citing the network’s low costs and integration with Coinbase’s services. This was a milestone showing that even conservative financial firms saw value in operating on Base for efficiency while trusting Ethereum’s security as the backstop. Base’s design (using ETH as the native gas token) also means it plugs into Ethereum’s broader liquidity seamlessly – any asset on Ethereum can be bridged to Base, and conversely, making it easy for users to move capital as opportunities arise.

支持 Base 增長的，還有其 Ethereum 兼容及安全的優勢。作為 rollup，Base 會將數據提交到以太坊主網，最終繼承以太坊久經考驗的安全模型。用戶可以放心，即使 Base 的驗證者（sequencer）有問題，他們的資金亦由以太坊共識機制保障（雖然 optimistic rollup 需要設有爭議期給詐騙證明）。所以 Base 能夠結合交易速度與低手續費，同時讓用戶享有以太坊的安全感——特別適合著重風險管理的用戶及機構。事實上，Base 很早已吸引傳統金融機構注意：2024 年 Franklin Templeton 選用 Base 推出首隻由大型資產管理公司發行的美國政府貨幣基金代幣化版本，指明看中網絡成本低廉及 Coinbase 服務的整合。這可說是個里程碑，連傳統保守的金融公司都認同 Base 具有效率價值，同時信賴以太坊當作最終安全保底。Base 用 ETH 作為原生 gas 代幣，意味著可以無縫介入以太坊更廣泛的流動性——任何以太坊資產都可便捷地跨橋至 Base，反之亦然，用戶可以因應機遇輕鬆調動資金。

There are, of course, trade-offs and challenges for Base. One is centralization: currently, Base’s sequencer is operated by Coinbase. This means Coinbase has significant control (they order transactions and could, in theory, censor or prioritize certain ones). While the rollup tech ensures users can withdraw trustlessly, the day-to-day operation is not decentralized. Coinbase has indicated it plans to progressively decentralize Base’s sequencer, possibly aligning with Optimism’s roadmap of a shared “decentralized sequencer” set for the broader OP Stack “Superchain.” Until that happens, Base inherits some degree of trust in Coinbase’s proper functioning. Thus far, that trust has held up – Coinbase, being a regulated and reputed company, has every incentive to keep Base reliable and neutral. But it also means Base may have to navigate regulatory pressures. If authorities in the U.S. ever required measures like blacklisting addresses, Coinbase could be pressured into compliance on its L2. This is a different risk profile compared to Solana or even zkSync, which are more community-run. However, one could argue Coinbase’s involvement has more pros than cons: it brings legal compliance, funding, and a long-term orientation that purely community-driven projects might lack.

當然，Base 也存在取捨和挑戰。其中之一就是中心化：目前 Base 的 sequencer 操作權在 Coinbase 手上。即是說 Coinbase 擁有很大控制權（能排列交易順序，甚至理論上可審查或優先某些交易）。雖然 rollup 技術保證用戶可無需信任地提款，實際日常營運現時卻未去中心化。Coinbase 已表明會逐步分散 Base sequencer 權力，可能會配合 Optimism 的「去中心化 sequencer」路線圖，將來於更大的 OP Stack「Superchain」中引入共享 sequencer。在這之前，Base 依然帶有一定程度對 Coinbase 營運的信任風險。到目前為止，這份信任仍然可接受 —— Coinbase 作為受規管且具聲譽的公司，有足夠動機保持 Base 穩定可靠及中立。不過這亦代表 Base 可能有機會要面對監管壓力。例如美國當局要求黑名單某些地址，Coinbase 或會被逼在 L2 層配合處理。這和 Solana 甚至 zkSync 這種由社群主導的鏈有明顯不同的風險輪廓。不過，也有人認為 Coinbase 加入其實有更多正面：可帶來合法合規、資金及長遠規劃，是純社群項目較缺乏的優點。

Sustainability of activity is another question. Some analysts in late 2024 noted that Base’s explosive growth had a lot to do with promotional events and opportunistic behavior – for example, users chasing NFT drops or potential future airdrops (even though Base has no token, some speculated on ecosystem rewards). A CoinDesk piece bluntly asked: “Are [Base’s users] bona fide users with on-chain needs, or just a flurry of ... traders taking advantage of one-time promotions and quests?”. It’s a fair question whether Base can convert the initial rush into long-term engaged users. The encouraging sign is that even after Onchain Summer and other events, Base’s usage remained high relative to peers, suggesting many users stuck around for the actual utility (be it trading, gaming, or socializing on new dApps). Coinbase’s ongoing integration – such as potentially connecting Base to its main exchange order books, or using Base for internal settlement – could also provide sticky usage not reliant on hype. In July 2025, Coinbase’s rebrand of its wallet into Base App and the associated SocialFi boom indicated the team’s commitment to driving fresh activity and perhaps periodically “reinvigorating” user interest with new features.

活動的可持續性則是另一個疑問。有分析師於 2024 年底指出，Base 的高速增長部分其實源於各種推廣活動和機會主義行為 —— 例如用戶為炒 NFT 空投，或預期未來有代幣空投而入場（雖然 Base 本身無代幣，仍有不少人猜測生態系統獎勵）。CoinDesk 亦一針見血地問過：「究竟（Base 的用戶）真的是鏈上需求者？還是一大堆 ... 趁單次優惠，又或完成任務就走的投機玩家？」。可見 Base 是否可將初期人流轉化為長期活躍用戶，是個值得商榷的問題。值得鼓舞的是，即使 Onchain Summer 及其他活動熱潮過後，Base 的活躍度仍明顯較同類 L2 高，顯示不少人因能實際用到（無論交易、遊戲還是新 dApp 的社交功能）而選擇留下。Coinbase 繼續深化整合 —— 例如或將 Base 接入主交易所的委託簿，或用於內部結算 —— 都有潛力吸引持續用途，毋須依賴炒作。2025 年 7 月，Coinbase 將錢包品牌改為 Base App，同時引發 SocialFi 熱潮，反映團隊決心不斷激活新活動，並透過新功能定期「喚醒」用戶興趣。

In summary, Base enters the next bull run as a highly scalable extension of Ethereum that has already proven it can onboard masses of users quickly and handle immense transaction loads. It benefits from Ethereum’s network effect (for liquidity and security) and Coinbase’s ecosystem (for users and institutional trust), a potent combination. Base has shown leadership in raw activity – outpacing other L2s in transactions and even challenging L1s in areas like NFT and token trading volume. Its challenge will be maintaining decentralization principles and keeping users engaged beyond hype cycles. If the broader crypto market surges, Base is extremely well-positioned to catch the influx of newcomers (who are likely Coinbase customers) and give them a taste of

總結而言，Base 作為高可擴展性的以太坊延伸，已實證能快速承載大批用戶並處理海量交易，正迎接下一輪牛市。它同時受惠於以太坊網絡效應（流動性與安全性）及 Coinbase 生態（用戶基礎與機構信任），兩者互相加乘。Base 於原生活動量方面已領先眾多 L2——無論交易量還是 NFT 及代幣買賣，甚至可以「叫板」部分 L1，其挑戰會是如何維持去中心化宗旨，以及在炒作周期過後仍能持續吸引用戶參與。如果整體加密市場所迎來爆發增長，Base 無疑會是最有利位置去接收新入場群體（這班很大機會本身已經是 Coinbase 的用戶），並令他們親身體驗鏈上世界。Here is the translation according to your instructions (markdown links skipped):

DeFi、NFT，同埋 on-chain 社交媒體，冇咗高昂手續費或者複雜設置嗰啲阻滯。呢啲有機會令 Base 喺牛市時期成為主導嘅活動樞紐——如果而家嘅發展勢頭持續落去，更有可能成為全球最繁忙嘅區塊鏈之一。

zkSync：推動以太坊擴容前沿嘅 ZK-Rollup 技術

第三位競爭者 zkSync，代表以 零知識證明 方式推動以太坊擴容嘅下一代技術。由 Matter Labs 開發，zkSync Era 係一個用 zk-rollup 技術去打包同驗證交易嘅 Layer-2 網絡。與 optimistic rollups（例如 Base）唔同，optimistic 係預設交易無問題除非有人質疑；而 zkSync 係用密碼學證明（validity proof）去數學上保證每一批交易都正確先 upload 上以太坊。咁樣不但帶嚟接近即時嘅最終確定（唔使等一星期防詐挑戰期），仲可以提供接近以太坊 L1 嘅安全性，同時大幅提升吞吐量同減低手續費。以往 zk-rollup 都被視為 cutting-edge 技術——但 zkSync 屬於最早將佢實現到普通智能合約用嘅團隊之一。zkSync Era 於 2023 年 3 月主網上線，成為全球最早功能完善、EVM 相容（即開發者只要小改就可以部署 Solidity 合約）嘅 ZK-rollup。呢個 milestone 喺區塊鏈工程上好重要——Matter Labs 將 zkSync 帶到現實，為此更從 a16z 等投資者籌咗超過 2.5 億美元。

zkSync 嘅吸引之處在於佢可以繼承以太坊嘅安全同去中心化，同時提供得多得多嘅效能同低成本。zkSync Era 每秒可處理成千上萬嘅交易，並通過簡潔嘅證明高效清算到以太坊。佢仲有啲進階特點，例如賬戶抽象（令用戶賬戶彈性更大，譬如可以用唔同 tokens 交手續費），同主打跨鏈互通，Matter Labs 叫呢概念做「hyperchain」或者 Elastic Chains。簡單嚟講，zkSync 視野唔止一條鏈：佢哋開放咗「ZK Stack」源碼，等其他團隊都可以 launch 自己 ZK-rollup，之後同 zkSync Era 互通。呢種模組化、多鏈策略（同 Optimism Superchain 精神相近），目標打造一個流動性同訊息可以無縫共享嘅 ZK-rollup 宇宙。作為率先起步者，zkSync Era 做 hub，即「Layer-2 嘅 Layer-2」——流動性集中嘅基地，其他鏈插上嚟。呢個係前瞻策略，預計好多 app-specific 嘅鏈日後都會用 ZK 技術，通通以以太坊作安全 anchor。

講到現時使用情況同表現，zkSync 一路都穩步增長，中間有幾次因為發幣而特別熱鬧。由 2023 年底到 2024 年，zkSync Era 都有唔少項目同用戶嚟試用，部分係搏空投（事實上，2024 年 Q2 真係有 ZK token 空投）。2024 年中 token 空投之後，用量指標一度飆升再回落，反映投機活動的確好影響 L2 使用。Messari 報告指出，2024 年 Q4，空投之後，zkSync 日均交易量環比跌咗 42%，去到約 142,000；每日 active address 落到大約 41,000（跌 63%）。「主要係因為空投之後冇 incentive 用網絡」。換句話講，token 派咗之後，農民活動就少咗。一個好消息係新用戶引入仲係企得穩——zkSync 新地址創建率只係環比跌咗 2% 左右，代表仲有唔少新 blood 加入。到 2024 年尾，zkSync 已經進入咗一個常態基數，準備起下一波增長。

當時淨看數字嘅話，zkSync 係比 Base 或 Arbitrum 慢啲——例如 Base 一日有幾百萬宗交易，zkSync 係十幾萬宗左右。又好似 Arbitrum 嘅 TVL 有幾十億美金，zkSync 就維持喺大約 9 億美元。但啲 figure 並非全部故事，因為 zkSync 開始攞到自己啲專屬領域，某啲重點範疇增長好強。例如 real-world assets (RWA) 同機構用例。到 2025 年初，zkSync Era 成功吸引咗大約 19 億美金 RWA 上鏈，約佔全部鏈上 RWA 流通量 25%。呢個數字令 zkSync 成為僅次於以太坊主網、第二大 RWA 區塊鏈。呢件事源自同機構夥伴合作與試點計劃：就好似德意志銀行咁，佢哋揀咗 zkSync 做 Project Dama（數字資產平台）基礎，展現金融圈對 ZK tech 信心。仲有啲如 Blockchain Capital 及 fintech 公司都將業務搬上 zkSync。德意志銀行、甚至瑞銀（UBS）、Sygnum 話有 fund 喺 zkSync 上，更凸顯 zkSync 成功包裝自己為 enterprise-friendly 嘅擴容方案。喺一個合規同安全都極為重要嘅生態下，zkSync 用 ZK 證明有大吸引力（ZK 可以做到保私隱交易，選擇披露等——雖然 zkSync Era 本身而家係全公開，但技術層面上之後可以加上私隱 layer）。

DeFi 方面，zkSync 一直穩步建設。去到 2025 年初，據報佢已經有超過 270 個 dApps 上線，Era 內 DeFi TVL 約 4.3 億美元。呢啲數字雖然未及最大啲嘅鏈，但增長速度明顯——2025 年 1 月，DeFi TVL 曾單月升 177%。zkSync 上啲協議包括去中心化交易所、借貸平台、收益優化器，唔少其實係從以太坊移植過嚟。例如 Uniswap 已經部署咗喺 zkSync Era，其他知名 DeFi 項目都有 launch 或準備 launch。至於用戶基數，雖然難精確計，但長時間總體活躍錢包數以百萬計——Matter Labs 都曾提到，2024 年已有數百萬個錢包互動過（包括空投農）。值得留意嘅係，ETH Dencun 升級（EIP-4844）後，zkSync 平均交易費率超低，令 L2 data 成本大幅減。到 2024 年底，zkSync 平均一單交易手續費只需約 $0.03 美元，比年初時跌咗成 86%。好明顯，L1 協議改進直接令 L2 用戶慳返大把。即係話， zkSync 快又安全之餘，仲非常平，牛市遇上 L1 手續費爆炸時，開發者同用家都肯定會更鍾意用。

技術呢方面，zkSync 係明顯同 Solana 或 optimistic rollup（Base 等）分別出嚟。2024 年底，zkSync 團隊宣佈一系列大 upgrade，目標再將表現推到極致。其中一個重點係發展一個新型 prover「Boojum」同 BoojumVM。官方話想做到過萬 TPS、極低費用（每單約 $0.0001 美元），靠嘅就係 zkSync 嘅證明生成。如果達標，zkSync 理論上 raw 吞吐量就同甚至超越 Solana，實際抹平 monolithic 鏈同 rollup 功能距離。Boojum 嘅創新，加上 state-diff 為基礎的設計架構，預計 2025 年推出。到時下一波牛市，zkSync 就算交易量激升都應該捱得住。傳統上 ZK-rollup 證明計算量重，但 Boojum 呢類進步希望可以極速搞掂 proof，大大減低成本。本質上，zkSync 準備唔只係垂直擴展（一條鏈 TPS 升）、仲要水平擴展（spawn 多條新 zkSync-based 鏈 via ZK Stack）。以太坊聯合創辦人 Vitalik Buterin 同好多社區人都話 ZK-rollup 係「終極擴容路線」，所以 zkSync 呢個方向非常貼近 vision。其實，ENS（Ethereum Name Service）都宣佈第二層用 ZK-rollup tech（Linea），Polygon 等專案亦全面轉向 ZK。zkSync 係其中一個最早證明可行性嘅 pionner，隨住 ZK 技術 reputation 上升，可能會吸引到更多開發者同用家。

講到 zkSync，唔可以唔提競爭同挑戰。zkSync 唔係唯一 ZK-rollup——仲有 StarkNet（自家語言同架構）、Polygon zkEVM、ConsenSys 嘅 Linea，同 Scroll 等等。各自都爭 Ethereum Scaling 份額，生態圈亦有各自特色。好似 2024 年底，Polygon zkEVM 同 StarkNet 用量都仲細過 zkSync，但一直進步緊。即係話，zkSync 唔只要證明 ZK-rollup 有未來，更要證明 自家生態系勝出。而 zkSync 其中一優勢係較早推出而且 EVM-compatible，可以快啲吸引 developer 社群。新 token hype 雖然有啲副作用，但確係拉到 attention。踏入新牛市，zkSync 要靠可靠性（技術夠 battle-tested？）、開發者友好度、定可能要靠生態激勵（佢哋有好大部分 token 庫存預留咗發展同 adoption）。至今網絡穩定性不俗——除咗 token 發放時偶有 rate-limit 同 mempool 塞車，未見嚴重 downtime。至於去中心化，zkSync 仍然係進行中：而家 Matter Labs 及合作夥伴運行 sequencer / prover，理論上將來其他人都可以 run full...

---node to verify。隨着時間過去，佢哋計劃去將呢啲組件進一步去中心化，但喺下一輪牛市嚟之前，呢個過程好可能未必完全實現。所以，好似Base咁，zkSync底層基建層面會有一定中央化成份（喺新興L2入面都好多見）。唔同嘅地方喺於：zkSync嘅有效性證明（validity proofs）限制咗中央化可以被濫用嘅方法——即使有惡意營運者，都無法偷錢或者竄改交易而唔被發現，因為所有無效嘅狀態轉換都唔會被以太幣網絡接受。呢個設計為zkSync本身帶嚟非常強勁嘅安全性。

另一個重要層面就係流動性同互操作性。zkSync可以從以太坊嘅流動性獲益，但有個小陷阱：由L2去返L1又或者係兩個L2之間搬錢有摩擦成本。不過zkSync一直積極整合橋樑（bridges）、法幣入金，以及提升互操作體驗。有分析指出，因為zkSync Era係市面上第一批推出嘅ZKrollup，並重點做咗唔同服務（例如LayerSwap橋、錢包、入金渠道）嘅整合同壓力測試，「zkSync Era變咗社群同開發者測試新應用嘅場地……所有主要組件都喺Era度落地同實戰過」，之後用ZK Stack開新鏈都可以直接攞嚟用。即係話，zkSync已經定位自己做流動性樞鈕——一個L2 base layer——畀未來新鏈唔會分裂用戶體驗。理論上，如果之後有多條「Elastic Chains」用zkSync套件，用戶就可以因為原生兼容，喺唔同鏈之間輕易調用資產。到而家，已經有超過7.95億美元跨咗橋去zkSync，仲有新鏈陸續掛鉤落嚟。如果下一輪牛市帶起multi-chain 熱潮，zkSync有機會憑呢個定位，變成ZK-rollup多鏈宇宙入面嘅「黏合劑」。再者，因為ZK技術，zkSync可能會出現其他鏈搞唔到嘅新玩法——例如要快確認時間（finality）嘅遊戲應用、或者講求隱私需求嘅應用，有機會優先揀zkSync而唔係Optimistic Rollups或者Solana。

總結嚟講，zkSync以創新L2嘅身份踏入牛市預期期，雖然而家用戶規模未及Solana或者Base，但基本面同增長動力都好強。論技術願景，zkSync可以話係三者之中最進取——佢希望結合以太坊嘅安全性同web級表現力，靠Zero-Knowledge（零知識）證明技術。佢近排數據顯示平台逐漸成熟：鎖倉資本接近10億美金（TVL），仲有實際使用（幾十萬宗交易，DeFi同NFT活動不斷增長）。如果類似Boojum嘅升級有效，zkSync第二輪增長有望追上甚至超越Optimistic Rollups嘅交易量。另外，加密業界長遠都好睇好ZK解決方案（唔少以太坊人認為ZK-rollups係終極擴容方式）。牛市下，zkSync好可能吸引番一批畀以太坊L1 gas fee嚇走、又希望有安全保障但唔信其他L1嘅用戶，仲會有一班覺得其生態年輕、有機會博一鋪（特別係有ZK token推動價值捕捉）嘅投機型玩家。以熱度嚟講，zkSync現階段都係比Solana或者Base小眾啲，但只要周期走得好，上升空間可以好大。

對比分析：表現、生態同競爭力因素

我哋分別介紹完幾個網絡之後，依家可以以主要指標比較Solana、Base同zkSync，睇下牛市邊個最有機會突圍。主要指標包括：網絡表現同可擴展性、系統安全同去中心化、生態圈闊度（包括DeFi、NFT等等）、用戶增長同趨勢、以及每個項目點擺位。三條鏈都有動力，但路線完全唔同——直接比較可以直觀睇到互相優缺點。

吞吐量同可擴展性

講表現，Solana而家以鏈上吞吐量領先。我哋見過Solana每日處理幾千萬交易，高峰時一日達到6600萬宗。佢高性能設計令佢一般日子平均每秒處理4,000-5,000TPS，理論上最高可以去到約65,000TPS。Solana能力展示得清清楚楚嘅時候，就係一個月DEX交易量破咗1,100億美金，比2024年尾以太坊更高。當月Solana成交量$109B，而以太坊係$88B，證明Solana高吞吐量真係落地到，用戶同項目都係度用緊。加上Solana持續做緊技術升級（例如Firedancer），未來擴容空間仲會再上。不過Solana實際TPS都要受去中心化取態限制（避免全網停擺，速度快慢要睇最慢節點）。區塊時間約0.4秒，快到極但如果全世界節點效能無提升或者參數冇郁過都已經近極限。

Base係L2，借力以太坊安全，但吞吐量就受限於Optimism rollup架構同以太坊數據上限。2024年第四季Base單日交易達到7–8百萬，即平均每秒80–90TPS，雖然同Solana高峰仲差一截，但就以L2嚟講，Base已經係以太坊L1（每日約15TPS）嘅6倍吞吐量。Base又試過創新高（每日880萬筆交易），得益於優化交易打包方式。要指出：以太坊2024年尾Dencun升級（proto-danksharding）大幅提升咗L2數據容量，Base可以用更低成本喺主網submit更大批交易，加快咗吞吐量同埋減低手續費。未來如果以太坊做sharding或者全功能danksharding，Base等L2可以再升一個級數。牛市爆發，Base除咗以太坊本身改進會受益，仲有自己優化空間。而且，Base交易入面好大部分都係簡單價值轉移同合約互動（唔洗好多資源計算，例如大量係coinbase-wrapped BTC轉賬同自動交易bot），令到每個block可以塞更多操作。

zkSync性能方面就比較「Wildcard」。依家睇到實際吞吐量偏低——每日幾十萬交易（幾個TPS），因為未有牛市大檢驗，又空投之後需求未升溫。不過，上限就好高。ZK-rollup可以做多線執行（parallelize）同用高效證明，限制通常在於生成證明速度同以太坊數據帶寬。未來升級如Boojum，zkSync團隊目標係追平甚至超越其他L2。牛市一爆，zkSync即時確認區塊（唔使等星期先finalize）可以比用戶更流暢體驗。另一好處係：zkSync只要加多啲算力（如GPU或專用硬件），證明生成就可以加快，直接提升吞吐量，唔似Solana要全網協作，或Base照顧以太坊數據上限。如果需要，zkSync都可以開更多parallel chains（Elastic Chains）來分散負載，再回主網結算，各條鏈互唔堵塞。呢種模組化擴容架構令zkSync整個網絡可以合計支撐極高吞吐量——雖然橋接之間複雜，佢哋都積極處理原生互通。

總結，三者之中Solana目前鏈上吞吐量最高，但Base、zkSync都有可信路徑追上。Solana係證明咗有實際超高容量；Base已經以L2規模遠超以太坊，仲會隨主網升級再爆；zkSync有技術潛力，特別係ZK硬件加速同多鏈部署。牛市一嚟，邊個有多啲閒置容量，邊個就可以確保用戶體驗唔會塞爆。呢個角度，三者都好明顯唔想輸俾成長需求——Solana靠優化L1區塊，Base靠以太坊路線圖升級同分流去L2，zkSync靠ZK效能同多鏈模式。最終有可能三者無一會成為牛市大阻塞，對整個加密圈嚟講都係好事。

安全與去中心化

牛市資金湧入，加密圈最重視安全。三者安全路徑幾乎完全唔同：

• Solana本身係獨立PoS網絡保護。現時全球有1900多個驗證者，Nakamoto係數（合謀癱瘓網絡所需最少節點數量）比其他好多L1為高，說明有一定去中心化。Solana驗證者需要高端硬件（高CPU核心數、記憶體、頻寬），帶嚟一啲中央化隱憂——業餘驗證者入唔到場，參與者更集中喺有資本機構。不過，Solana近年積極推多一套客戶端（Firedancer）、全球分佈，更加強去中心化同安全力。至今網絡都可以抵抗攻擊，出事多數係軟件bug或者過載，而唔係遭到51%攻擊等等。2022-2023年尾，Solana都大幅強化咗佢程式碼……and processes after those outages, resulting in much improved stability (no major outage in 2023, and only brief slowdowns). One security wildcard is regulatory – Solana was labeled a “security” (in the legal sense) by U.S. regulators in mid-2023, which doesn’t directly impact network security but could influence which actors (exchanges, institutions) feel safe interacting with it. So far, that has not derailed its usage globally; Solana’s user base is truly international and often retail-driven.

及於這些故障之後所進行的各項流程調整，令系統穩定性大幅提升（2023年無嚴重停機，只有短暫變慢）。有一個安全上不可預測的因素就是監管風險——Solana 在2023年中被美國監管當局界定為「證券」（法律定義），雖然這並無直接影響網絡安全性，但有可能令部份參與者（如交易所、機構）在使用上有所顧慮。到目前為止，這事並未阻礙其於全球的應用；Solana的用戶群相當國際化，而且多以散戶為主。

• Base inherits security from Ethereum’s L1, which is a huge plus. The optimistic rollup model means that as long as Ethereum’s consensus is secure (with thousands of validators and robust PoS), Base’s transactions are ultimately secure and fraud-proof – provided someone watches for fraud. Typically, the Optimism framework relies on a fraud proof mechanism: if Base (or its sequencer) submitted an invalid state, someone could challenge it within a 7-day window to prove fraud and revert it. In practice today, Base’s fraud proofs and validation are handled by a combination of Coinbase and the Optimism collective; there isn’t yet a large third-party “watcher” ecosystem, but over time that is expected to decentralize. The main trust assumption with Base is the sequencer honesty and uptime: Coinbase runs the sequencer, which if it went offline, users might have to wait (potentially until the challenge period ends) to withdraw funds. If it censored transactions, users could still exit but might need to do so through an on-chain proof mechanism. Coinbase’s brand and legal accountability act as a bulwark against misbehavior. It’s also notable that Base does not publish all transaction data on Ethereum (Optimism chains use calldata compression techniques), but still enough to reconstruct the chain if needed. In terms of decentralization, Base is currently more centralized than Solana or zkSync – one entity controls block production. However, its validity comes from Ethereum’s decentralization, which is rock-solid. One could say Base trades off some decentralization at the execution layer for enhanced security and ease of use via Ethereum. During a frenzy, Base’s reliance on Ethereum could be a double-edged sword: if Ethereum gets extremely congested or has issues, Base could be indirectly affected (e.g. if posting call data becomes very expensive). The likelihood of Ethereum failing is extremely low, though, given its maturity.

• Base 繼承了以太坊 L1 的安全性，這是一個巨大優勢。樂觀式 Rollup 模式即代表只要以太坊的共識層（數以千計驗證節點及完善的 PoS 機制）安全，Base 上的交易最終都具備安全保障及防欺詐能力——前提是有人監察是否有欺詐。而在 Optimism 框架下，通常會有欺詐證明機制：若 Base（或其 sequencer）提交了無效狀態，有人可於7日內發起挑戰、證明欺詐並將其還原。現時，Base 的欺詐證明與驗證主要由 Coinbase 及 Optimism collective 負責；尚未有大型第三方「監察員」生態，但預料長遠會逐步去中心化。Base 主要的信任假設是 sequencer 的誠信及穩定運作：Coinbase 運行 sequencer，如停機，用戶或需等至挑戰期結束方能提款；如實施交易審查，用戶仍可退出，但或需透過鏈上證明機制處理。Coinbase 本身的品牌及法律責任可防範惡意行為。值得注意的是，Base 並非將所有交易數據發佈到以太坊（Optimism 鏈採用 calldata 壓縮技術），但已保留足夠資料，必要時可重建鏈。去中心化程度方面，Base 現時比 Solana 或 zkSync 更集中——只有一個實體控制出塊。不過其有效性來源自以太坊的去中心化，穩如磐石。可說 Base 犧牲部分執行層的去中心化，以換取更高安全性和易用性（憑藉以太坊背書）。於交易極度踴躍時，Base 對以太坊的依賴或變成雙刃劍：如以太坊嚴重擠塞或出現問題，Base 亦會被間接影響（例如 Call Data 成本變得極高）。但以太坊本身出現故障的機會極低，以其成熟度計算極為穩妥。

• zkSync also leverages Ethereum’s L1 security, but in an even stronger way: every batch of zkSync transactions comes with a validity proof that Ethereum verifies. This means there is no scenario where an invalid state can be finalized on zkSync, as the cryptographic proof simply won’t allow it – a level of security equivalence to Ethereum that optimistic rollups theoretically achieve only if a fraud proof is actually submitted in time. In zkSync’s case, security doesn’t rely on honest watchers (though decentralizing the prover is important for liveness). Right now, Matter Labs and a few others run the proving nodes, which introduces some centralization similar to Base’s sequencer issue. If those provers stopped, the chain could halt (no new state updates) until someone else stepped in with the proving keys to resume. The team likely has measures to decentralize this, possibly allowing community-run provers in the future. As for decentralization, zkSync’s sequencer is also currently centralized (operated by the project team), so in practice it’s not yet permissionless who orders transactions. They have pledged to decentralize this component too, but it might take time. Even so, zkSync inherits Ethereum’s decentralization at the consensus layer – users always have the security of Ethereum validating the state transitions. In a high-traffic scenario, zkSync’s ZK proofs ensure the network doesn’t get bogged down in fraud disputes, which is a peace-of-mind advantage. The flip side is that generating proofs is computationally heavy; if activity skyrockets, the sequencer might have to delay accepting transactions until proofs are ready (this is something upgrades like Boojum aim to mitigate). Summarily, zkSync’s security model is extremely robust; its decentralization of operations is a work in progress but philosophically aligned with Ethereum’s values.

• zkSync 亦同樣利用以太坊 L1 的安全性，但更進一步：每一批 zkSync 交易都要附有由以太坊驗證的有效性證明。代表於 zkSync 上，無可能有無效狀態被確認——因密碼學證明根本不接受錯誤狀態——這保安等同以太坊，樂觀 Rollup 只有真的有人及時提交欺詐證明時才能達到理論上的安全等級。zkSync 的安全不寄託於「誠實監察者」（不過將 prover 去中心化對存活性重要）。目前 Matter Labs 及部分成員負責運行 proof 節點，和 Base 的 sequencer 一樣存在部份中心化風險。倘若證明者停運，鏈便會暫停（無法有新狀態更新），直至有其他人接手持有 proof key 來重啟。團隊可能已準備措施日後推動去中心化，有機會未來容許社群運作證明者節點。至於去中心化亦同樣有限：zkSync 的 sequencer 目前仍由項目團隊運作，現階段處理交易排序並非完全無許可。團隊承諾日後會逐步去中心化，但需時推行。即便如此，zkSync 於共識層仍繼承以太坊的去中心化——用戶始終受以太坊驗證狀態轉移保障。在高交易量情況下，zkSync 的 ZK 證明可令網絡避免因欺詐爭議被拖垮，這對用戶頗安心。缺點是 proof 消耗大量算力，如活動暴增，sequencer 或要延遲收單等待 proof 完成（這正是 Boojum 等升級著力解決的體驗）。總結來說，zkSync 整體安全模式極為嚴密，營運去中心化進步中，理念上與以太坊社群精神一致。

Interoperability and Network Effects are another aspect of “security” in the broader sense of user funds safety. Solana exists in its own ecosystem, so bridging assets to and from other chains (like Ethereum) involves external bridge protocols, which historically have been points of failure (e.g., the Wormhole bridge hack in 2022 was a high-profile $300M exploit on a Solana-Ethereum bridge). In contrast, Base and zkSync, being on Ethereum, allow users to move assets via the Ethereum bridge (smart contracts) which are much more secure by design. There is no need for a third-party custodian; one can withdraw from the L2 to Ethereum L1 trustlessly (only waiting period or proof time). This is a big advantage for Base/zkSync in terms of fund security. If a bull run triggers lots of bridging (people moving assets to chase yields across chains), Ethereum L2s might inspire more confidence than an external bridge to Solana. However, Solana is integrating better bridges and even exploring native solutions for connecting to Ethereum (and other chains like Cosmos). It recently benefited from projects like Wormhole’s new guardians and Circle’s Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol for USDC that make moving stablecoins across chains safer. Still, the perception remains that Ethereum L2s are an extension of Ethereum and thus “safer” venues for assets, whereas moving to an alt-L1 is a step out of the walled garden.

互通性和網絡效應亦是「安全性」的廣義討論（即用戶資產安全）的重要一環。Solana 相對封閉在自家生態，要與其他鏈（例如以太坊）互通資產，必須依靠外部橋協議，而這些橋歷來安全風險高（如2022年 Wormhole 橋遭駭客攻擊，Solana-以太坊橋被盜三億美元，轟動一時）。相比之下，Base 及 zkSync 倚賴於以太坊本身，用戶可經以太坊原生橋（智能合約）自由移動資產，設計本身更安全，不需第三方託管，只需等候執行期或證明期，即可無信任提款回 L1。這對 Base/zkSync 的資金安全屬重大優勢。萬一牛市來臨、跨鏈需求急增（投資者為搶高息四出橋接資產），以太坊 L2 或更受信任多於外接 Solana 橋。不過 Solana 亦正積極整合更安全的新橋，並研究原生與以太坊（及Cosmos等鏈）直連方案。例如 Wormhole 新設 guardian、Circle 的USDC跨鏈協議，已令跨鏈穩定幣更安全。儘管如此，普遍觀感仍是以太坊 L2 彷如以太坊的延伸，用戶資產「較安全」，反觀轉至另類 L1 則猶如走出圍牆花園，多一層風險意識。

From a decentralization ethos perspective, Ethereum’s community (which Base and zkSync inherit) is very focused on credible neutrality and censorship-resistance. Coinbase, despite being a centralized exchange, has so far operated Base in line with those values (no known censorship incidents). Matter Labs similarly has an ethos of open-source (eventually; they faced some early criticism for not immediately open-sourcing everything, but have been remedying that). Solana’s community, on the other hand, often emphasizes performance and user experience, occasionally drawing criticism from Ethereum maximalists on decentralization. But it’s noteworthy that Solana’s decentralization has been improving – for instance, its “Nakamoto coefficient” (decentralization metric) reportedly surpassed that of many other chains including some L2 sequencer sets. And by having two independent clients now, it’s eliminated a single point of software failure that even Ethereum hasn’t (Ethereum is still dominated by one client, Geth, albeit others exist).

從去中心化精神角度來看，以太坊社群（Base、zkSync 均承傳了這些價值）甚重視可信中立和抗審查原則。Coinbase 雖屬中心化交易所，但至今營運 Base 亦奉行這種價值觀（未聞有審查事件）。Matter Labs 方面則強調開源精神（雖然早期一度因未即時開源受批評，但已逐步改進）。Solana 社群相對經常強調性能與用戶體驗，有時因此被部分以太坊最大主義者批評去中心化不足。不過 Solana 去中心化近年有所提升——例如其「中本系數」（Nakamoto coefficient，去中心化指標）據報已高於不少其他鏈及部分 L2 出塊組。加上現時已有兩個獨立客戶端運作，消除了單點軟件失效風險（即使以太坊至今 Geth 客戶端市佔也很高，雖然也有其他選擇）。

In summary, all three networks score well on security, but via different means. Solana: secure by its own robust PoS network, though more “self-contained” and historically perceived as less decentralized than Ethereum; Base: secure by Ethereum’s consensus, but with a centralized operator – a model that works as long as Coinbase is cooperative and Ethereum is secure; zkSync: secure by advanced cryptography and Ethereum, with eventual decentralization of operations on the horizon. Users will make choices based on trust models: some will favor Solana’s sovereignty (no dependency on Ethereum) while others will prefer the comfort of Ethereum-backed security in Base/zkSync. If dominance is to be achieved, the winning network must not falter in security when it matters most. A single major exploit or prolonged network outage in a bull run could severely damage confidence. Solana has been battle-testing its fixes after past outages and appears stable; Base and zkSync are relatively newer but backed by time-tested Ethereum security. It’s a close call – none has a glaring weakness here now, though Solana’s past outages and bridges hacks in the ecosystem are cautionary tales that it must continue to prove are things of the past.

總結而言，三條鏈在安全性上各有高分，但所依賴機制大不相同。Solana：憑自身穩健 PoS 網絡保障安全，雖然「封閉」且去中心化程度傳統認為不及以太坊；Base：建基於以太坊共識，但營運者為中心化——只要 Coinbase 配合，及以太坊本身穩定，此模式可行；zkSync：由先進密碼學及以太坊雙重保障，且正逐步朝去中心化營運發展。用戶的選擇取決於信任模型：有人會偏好 Solana 自主（毋須依賴以太坊）；亦有人信賴 Base/zkSync 享有以太坊加持的安心。若要爭霸，最後勝出的網絡必須在關鍵時刻零失手。牛市出現嚴重漏洞或停運，信心隨時一鋪清袋。Solana 經歷過停機後已多番測試補救方案，目前運作穩定；Base 與 zkSync 雖然較新，但有以太坊成熟安全作後盾。此消彼長，現階段三者都無明顯致命弱點，要留意的是 Solana 過往的出事記錄與橋被駭一役，仍需持續證明已徹底解決，不能自滿。

Ecosystem Depth: DeFi, NFTs, Social, and Beyond

生態深度：DeFi、NFT、社交與更多

One way to judge which network might dominate the next bull run is to see where the users, developers, and capital are congregating – in essence, the richness of each ecosystem. All three networks are building broad ecosystems, but with different focal points and successes to date:

判斷誰會在下一波牛市中勝出的其中一個方法，就是觀察用戶、開發者和資金流以至整個生態圈的聚集狀況——即每條鏈生態的豐富度。三大網絡都正積極建設廣闊生態，但著重方向及現時成果各異：

• Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Solana’s DeFi ecosystem was hit hard in the 2022 bear market (TVL shrank, some projects collapsed or moved). Yet, as of 2024, it roared back strongly. Solana now boasts highly liquid DEXs (Raydium, Orca, Jupiter aggregator), lending protocols (Solend, Mango), stablecoin markets (including native USDC issuance), derivatives platforms (like Drift) and more. The statistic that Solana handled 81% of all DEX trades in the first half of 2024, clearing nearly $890B in DEX volume by mid-2025, speaks to a DeFi resurgence. Solana’s DeFi appeal is largely rooted in its ability to offer fast, cheap trades, which is catnip for retail traders and arbitrage bots alike. The ecosystem also innovated with things like orderbook-based exchanges (Serum in the past, now Phoenix) that were hard to run on slower chains. By Q4 2024, Solana’s DeFi TVL (~~$9B) actually rivaled some of Ethereum’s L2s plus other L1s combined, re-establishing it as a DeFi hub. Base’s DeFi, in contrast, is newer and smaller in TVL (~~$2–3B by end of 2024), but it has seen significant usage volume. Base’s biggest DeFi apps have been DEXs (like Aerodrome, and Uniswap deployed there too) and some emerging lending protocols. Interestingly, Base’s DeFi profile skews toward “CeFi-adjacent” utility as well – for example, Coinbase created cbETH (a liquid staking token) and cbBTC specifically for Base to facilitate bridging assets. High-liquidity trading of these assets on Base indicates that it functions partly as an extension of centralized exchange liquidity into DeFi. Furthermore, Base became known for hosting novel

• 去中心化金融（DeFi）：Solana 的 DeFi 生態在 2022 年熊市時受創嚴重（TVL 大幅縮水，部分項目倒閉或轉走）。然而，到了 2024 年，Solana 強勢反彈。現時 Solana 擁有*高流動性的 DEX（Raydium, Orca, Jupiter 聚合器）、借貸協議（Solend, Mango）、穩定幣市場（包括原生 USDC 發行）、衍生品平台（如 Drift）*等。單是 2024 年上半年 Solana 即佔全球 DEX 交易 81%，到 2025 年中 DEX 交易量近8900億美元，彰顯 DeFi 生機。Solana 在 DeFi 的吸引力主要因為其可支援高速且低費用交易，對散戶及套利機械人尤具吸引力。生態圈亦有創新如 orderbook 型交易所（昔日 Serum、現為 Phoenix），這類設計在速度較慢的鏈本難以實現。到 2024 年第四季，Solana DeFi TVL（約 90 億美元）甚至追得上一眾以太坊 L2 加其他 L1 合計之水平，鞏固其 DeFi 中樞地位。反觀 Base 的 DeFi 生態較新、TVL 較小（2024 年底約 20‒30 億美元），但用量增長明顯。Base 上最受歡迎的 DeFi 工具有 DEX（如 Aerodrome、Uniswap 也已上線）及新興借貸協議。有趣的是，Base 的 DeFi 亦帶有「近 CeFi」特質——例如 Coinbase 為 Base 推出 cbETH（流動質押代幣）及 cbBTC，以便資產跨鏈。這些資產於 Base 高流動性交易，說明它某程度上成為中心化交易所流動性的延伸進入 DeFi。此外 Base 亦以承載新型

（註：如需下文內容再續，請補充。）Here’s your translation, following your requested format (markdown links skipped):

資產類別，例如代幣化的人工智能代理（tokenized AI agents）。在 2024 年底的一段時間內，Base 佔據了 AI 生成代理代幣這股新熱潮交易的大部分份額 —— 這一分類之中，它「搶走了 Solana 早期[AI 代幣] GOAT 的大部分市場份額」。這顯示 Base 如果未來有新敘事冒起，是有力與 Solana 競爭。與此同時，zkSync 的 DeFi 是由較小規模開始發展。在 2025 年初，其 DeFi 鎖倉價值接近 5 億美元，現有項目如 ZigZag（去中心化交易所）、Mute（去中心化交易所）及各類挖礦協議。預計會有更多以太坊知名 DeFi 協議隨著 zkSync 成熟而部署到該網絡；事實上，全球最大 DeFi 協議之一 MakerDAO 亦討論過要部署到 ZK-rollup 上，而 zkSync 日後有機會成為選擇之一。zkSync 亦明確針對機構推廣，意味未來有機會見到更多現實資產 DeFi（例如鏈上基金、債券等）於 zkSync 發展，補足傳統加密原生 DeFi。例如，如果在牛市期間債券市場或外匯市場大規模上鏈，zkSync 可能更受青睞，因為它專注於符合法規要求的功能與機構合作。

• NFT 及遊戲：在 NFT 領域，Solana 在上一次牛市期間是僅次於以太坊的第二大 NFT 生態，有 Degenerate Ape Academy、Solana Monkey Business，以及後來的 y00ts 和 DeGods 等系列項目取得可觀價值。Solana 一些大型 NFT 項目如 DeGods 及 y00ts 於 2023 年遷移到以太坊或 Polygon，令 Solana 的 NFT 交易量一度受挫。然而，Solana 仍然擁有一個活躍的 NFT 社群，主要以較低成本的收藏品及遊戲相關 NFT 為主，亦有如 Magic Eden 這些最先在 Solana 上起家的市場。Solana 的 NFT 優勢仍然係低費用和快速結算 —— 鑄造及交易 NFT 無需擔心高昂手續費，吸引了另一批創作者和收藏者。2024 年間見到 NFT 同新概念結合（如壓縮 NFT 打造遊戲資產、Solana 上連結實體活動的 NFT 等）。如果下輪牛市再現 NFT 熱潮，Solana 很有機會搶佔更平民化、主流市場（如平價收藏品、遊戲資產、音樂 NFT 等）。Base 的 NFT 生態以 Onchain Summer 爆發，期間大眾鑄造了數百萬個 NFT（如 Coinbase 的「Base, Introduced」NFT 系列）。Base 亦成為 Zora「Every post is an NFT」概念的陣地，把社交媒體與 NFT 合一。此外，Coinbase 的 NFT 市場有機會與 Base 深度整合，未來利用 L2 挽救其 NFT 業務。因此，Base 在針對更廣泛群體的 NFT 可能會有強勁表現（或以類似 Instagram 體驗或網紅代幣推廣）。有趣的是，Base 上線當初，首個大型 NFT 項目是 friend.tech 推出的「Orb」（代表社交賬戶），亦帶動了顯著交易量。這種社交與 NFT 的融合很可能成為 Base 的獨特定位。zkSync 的 NFT 及遊戲技術基礎十分出色（交易快，適合遊戲內資產）。zkSync 已有數個 NFT 鑄造活動及部分遊戲項目進行探索，生態規模較細，但如果以太坊 NFT 太貴，zkSync 有潛力成為高價值 NFT（如藝術品）用戶的安全之選（他們可能會傾向 ZK-rollup 而非側鏈，以確保永久性紀錄於以太坊）。再者，考慮到 zkSync 明確朝 web3 遊戲發展（他們在願景文件中特別提到遊戲），未來可能有不少鏈上遊戲於此發佈。如牛市重現「邊玩邊賺」等新熱潮，zkSync 有機會憑規模效益及以太坊信譽搶佔市場（部份遊戲開發者或因 Terra 崩潰而更信任 zkSync 雖然 Solana 情況不同，但市場觀感很重要）。

• 社交及 Web3 應用：三者策略有明顯分別。Solana 近年積極拓展消費者應用，除了交易，亦推出 Solana Pay（支付協議），2023 年與 Shopify 整合 USDC 支付，方便商戶直接收取穩定幣，目標成為支付及商業區塊鏈。同時推出 Saga 手機（內建 Solana 加密錢包的 Android 手機），展現 Web3 手機野心。這些未必直接引發牛市炒作，但有助鋪設現實應用基礎。牛市期間如加密支付或手機 app 整合走紅，Solana 的早期投入有望受惠。Base 則非常傾向 Web3 社交。Coinbase Wallet 轉型成 Base 的「社交」app，Zora 的創作者代幣於 Base 爆發，成為典型例子。Base 有機會成為 那條 主要服務加密社交網絡、個人代幣及社群獎勵的平台，因為 Coinbase 積極推動。未來甚至有機會見到類 Twitter 或 Reddit 式的去中心化社交平台落戶 Base，原因是費用低、用戶上手方便（設想一下用戶能直接用 Coinbase 賬號登入，無障礙地即時享用去中心化社交 app）。如果「SocialFi」成為下一輪牛市熱潮，Base 早已領先講好這個敘事 —— 他們社交內容相關 micro-transactions 已有數百萬宗。zkSync 雖然還未有重大社交 app 發佈，但技術上有潛力推動例如私隱社交交易或身份認證解決方案（ZK 證明對匿名驗證身份非常適合）。Matter Labs 亦經常強調身份和私隱作為重點方向。日後 zkSync 有可能聯同去中心化身份或即時通訊項目合作，利用 ZK 證明保障安全與私隱。牛市若私隱成為主題（尤其當大家更關注鏈上數據公開），zkSync 可強調自身能夠原生集成 ZK 私隱層，比 Solana 或 Base 有優勢。

• 開發者採用狀況：如前述，Solana 於 2024 年迎來開發者熱潮，a16z 數據顯示其受加密創業者關注份額由 5% 倍升至逾 11%，成為新項目吸鐵。Base 亦錄得強勁增長（約 10.7%，幾乎追平 Solana），令兩者僅次於以太坊（約 20%）。zkSync 在這類總體調查未見突出，或因較新，而且不少針對以太坊擴容的開發者優先選擇了另一批較成熟 L2（如 Arbitrum 等）。不過 zkSync 於 2025 年初已累積超過 200 個項目，亦屬可觀。開發者偏好往往決定生態應用的豐富度，目前 Solana 及 Base 現時有明顯多於 zkSync 的現有及開發中應用。Solana 佔優的原因是發展較久，已經走過完整牛熊週期，淘汰弱項目，鍛煉出堅定團隊。Base 則憑 EVM 完全兼容，任何以太坊應用皆可輕鬆部署於 Base 吸納 Coinbase 用戶。事實上，Uniswap、Aave、Compound 等知名協議已部署或計劃部署到 Base，而 Solana 則有自家本土對應應用（如 Orca 對 Uniswap，Solend 對 Compound 等）。zkSync 亦同樣 EVM 兼容，理論上同 Base 一樣易於部署，只是目前重點及誘因尚未吸引大量應用，但若牛市誘因到位（如強力用戶增長或用 token 推出獎勵計劃如流動性挖礦、駭客松等），很快有可能大爆發。

總結生態比較：Solana 現時擁有最深厚且自給自足的生態（橫跨大型 DeFi、市場主流 NFT、甚至零售支付應用），Base 進步神速，繼承以太坊生態優勢 —— 在創新型社交代幣、連結傳統金融與 DeFi 上表現突出。zkSync 則生態最年輕，但如 ZK-rollup 成為主流以太坊擴容方案，特別受大型 dApp 或機構青睞，隨時爆發。各有專長：Solana 擅長高頻 DeFi 及消費者應用，Base 擅長社交驅動 Web3 及法幣快速接入，zkSync 著重 ZK 驗證安全的 DeFi 及企業應用。牛市爆發時，這些範疇（DeFi、NFT、社交、遊戲）經常同時暴增，最終勝者將是能跨越多個領域，或能成為 文化中心 的平台。例如過去一輪，Solana 曾經短暫成為文化熱點（如「Solana Summer」meme）。Base 和 zkSync 則會嘗試以新用戶為對象（Base 依賴 Coinbase 用戶流，zkSync 依靠新科技及空投社群）來角逐這地位。

發展勢頭及市場情緒

最後一個比較維度較主觀但極為關鍵：牛市中的勢頭與市場情緒。加密牛市經常會有敘事推動 —— 投資者和用戶會追著某個「故事」走（如「DeFi Summer」、「以太坊殺手」、「NFT 狂潮」等）。就讓我們分析一下三者的敘事：

Solana 的故事已由懷疑重返樂觀。自從 FTX 崩盤（Solana 因與之關係密切，價格和信譽曾受重挫），不少人認為 Solana 已死。但 2023 到 2024 年底期間，Solana 不但復甦，反而開始獨立發展。價格表現亦反映此趨勢：以 2025 年初計，SOL 漲幅遠超大部分主流資產，甚至以百分比計超越以太坊約 8 倍，市值也在 2024 年底重回全球前十並突破千億美元大關，反映大資本對其再起看好。現時市場有一種「逆境 turned contender”* around Solana. Enthusiasts champion its high throughput and growing community, framing it as the foremost non-Ethereum ecosystem – “an Ethereum alternative that’s actually delivering on scaled DeFi”. We see this sentiment in coverage noting how Solana joined the exclusive “$100B club” in market cap and hit multi-year highs, leading market rallies at times. Solana’s advocates also relish its independent developer culture, often more experimentally minded (Rust-based development, different approaches to scaling) than the EVM crowd. If one recalls, in the 2021 bull run Solana had immense hype – that could very well return in the next one, fueled by its actual achievements like dominating DEX volumes. On the flip side, Solana still has some overhangs: for example, the FTX bankruptcy estate holds a large amount of SOL that could be sold (in an orderly manner) over coming years, which some investors see as potential sell pressure. Additionally, the SEC’s stance adds a bit of regulatory discount to Solana in U.S. markets. However, internationally and in the crypto community at large, those concerns may pale in comparison to Solana’s visible growth. If retail users flood back into crypto chasing fast gains and cheap transactions, Solana’s brand as a fast and user-friendly chain could translate to dominance in user numbers and transactions – much as it did in 2024 when it led active address counts by a wide margin (100M+ monthly addresses).

Solana已經由「有潛力的競爭者」成為了被廣泛討論的焦點。支持者大力推崇其高吞吐量同不斷壯大的社群，塑造成為最具代表性的非Ethereum生態系——係*「一個真正能實現擴展DeFi嘅Ethereum替代品」*。好多分析提到Solana怎樣加入咗市值「1000億美元俱樂部」，幾次創出多年新高，市場帶動力都非常強。Solana擁躉亦引以為傲就係其獨立嘅開發文化，開發者較EVM陣營更加試驗性（Rust開發、另類擴展方案）。如果你記得，Solana 2021年牛市非常火熱——好大機會下次牛市會因應其真實成績（如DEX交易量稱霸）而再次興起。當然，Solana仍有暗湧：例如FTX清盤持有大量SOL，未來數年可能按計劃沽貨，有投資者視之為潛在沽壓。此外，美國證監會（SEC）立場都令Solana於美國市場有一定監管折讓。然而國際同加密圈整體上，這些擔憂其實比Solana可見增長都顯得細微。如果零售用戶再度湧入追逐快錢同低手續費，Solana「快同易用」嘅品牌好大機會轉化為用戶數量及交易量嘅主導地位——正如2024年一樣，活躍地址遠遠拋離對手（每月過億）。

Base’s narrative is entwined with Coinbase’s credibility and the mainstream on-boarding theme. Many see Base as the bridge between Web2 and Web3 – Coinbase can seamlessly funnel normal app users into crypto experiences on Base. The narrative here is “Mass Adoption via the biggest regulated exchange”. That’s a powerful story in a bull run that might attract a lot of newcomers. Instead of grappling with MetaMask and high fees on Ethereum, a new user might unknowingly interact with Base through a Coinbase app feature – for example, imagine Coinbase enabling direct purchases of an NFT or engagement in a game that runs on Base, with all the crypto complexity under the hood. That’s the kind of adoption narrative bulls love. We saw hints of this when Base launched; it was hailed as a validation that even centralized giants want to embrace DeFi and open networks. The fact that Base had no token ironically gives it a different kind of legitimacy – it wasn’t just another speculative launch, but a strategic move by Coinbase to grow the on-chain economy. In a bull run, though Base has no native coin to pump, it will likely drive value to ETH (since ETH is used for gas on Base). So ETH maxis might root for Base’s success as it burns more ETH. Sentiment-wise, Base impressed many by rising to the top of L2s so quickly, but there is also a bit of caution: will activity persist without token incentives? The evidence of sustained growth through end of 2024 and new innovations like the Zora social tokens in 2025 is tilting sentiment positive – Base seems to have avoided being a one-trick pony. Another narrative emerging is the “superchain” narrative: Base teaming up with Optimism and other OP Stack chains to form a network-of-networks where they share technology and potentially liquidity. This collaborative approach (as opposed to purely competitive) could mean Base isn’t trying to kill other L2s, but build a larger pie. That might reassure users and builders that investing effort in Base plugs them into a broad Ethereum scaling strategy, not just one company’s product. All told, if the bull run theme includes onboarding mainstream users, Base will be front and center in that discussion, which bodes well for its dominance prospects in user count and transaction volumes.

Base嘅故事同Coinbase信譽及「大眾用戶入場」主題密不可分。好多人睇Base做Web2同Web3嘅橋樑——Coinbase可無縫地將平民app用戶引流進入Base嘅加密體驗。呢個故事主調係*「最大合規交易所帶動加密普及」*——牛市下對新手極具吸引力。新手唔使煩MetaMask同Ethereum高Gas，可能通過Coinbase app嘅某功能唔覺意就用咗Base（想像下，直接買NFT或者玩遊戲，所有鏈上複雜性都係底層處理）。呢種推動用戶入場的故事，極受牛市參與者追捧。Base開台時已有端倪——被視為三大中心化巨企都想擁抱DeFi及開放網絡嘅佐證。Base冇發幣反而另類地增加了正當性——唔係又一隻炒作幣，而係Coinbase策略性推動鏈上經濟。牛市中，雖然Base冇native coin炒，但會為ETH帶來實際價值（因為Base交易都用ETH gas）。所以ETH支持者會希望Base越做越大，燒多啲ETH。話題上，Base以極高增速成為L2之首令人印象深刻，但都有人擔心：冇Token獎勵會唔會活躍度唔長久？2024尾仍見持續增長，加上2025如Zora Social Token啲新玩法，氛圍愈趨正面——Base明顯唔係一招半式。仲有「超級鏈」主題：Base聯同Optimism及其他OP Stack鏈，打造技術同流動性共享嘅「網絡之網絡」。呢種協作唔係單純競爭，意味住Base唔係要KO其他L2，而係一齊做大個餅。咁做可以令用戶和開發者安心，投入Base即係參與更宏觀Ethereum擴容戰略，而唔止係單一公司出品。總括而言，若牛市主題係「大眾用戶進場」，Base必定係話題核心，其用戶數目和交易量前景樂觀。

zkSync’s narrative is rooted in technology leadership and the future of Ethereum. It appeals to those who are in crypto for the long haul and believe in technical superiority. The narrative can be phrased as “Zero-knowledge rollups are the endgame for scaling – the most elegant and secure solution – and zkSync is at the forefront of that revolution.” In the next bull run, if there’s excitement around ZK-proof breakthroughs (for scaling, privacy, identity), zkSync could become a darling of the space, similar to how Polkadot and Cosmos caught narratives around interoperability in past cycles. With its token now live, ZK could become a hot asset, which in turn would draw attention to zkSync’s network metrics (people often follow the performance of the chain whose token they hold). Some analysts already forecast that by 2025, “zkSync could become one of Ethereum’s most trusted scaling protocols”, especially if Ethereum adoption keeps rising. The cautious view is that zkSync hasn’t yet proven the stickiness of its ecosystem – a lot of early users were there mainly for the airdrop. But bull runs have a way of re-igniting activity; even dormant projects come alive when speculation abounds. If Matter Labs executes some big moves, like attracting a top-tier DeFi protocol with an incentive program or demonstrating a game that runs 100% on zkSync with thousands of players, it could capture imagination. There’s also a community sentiment aspect: Ethereum purists may favor zkSync (and other L2s) over Solana because it aligns with Ethereum’s roadmap. In crypto tribal terms, the Ethereum community is far larger than Solana’s, so if that whole community coalesces around a particular L2 as “the next big thing,” that L2 can dominate. Arbitrum had a bit of that in 2021-22, being the favored rollup. By 2025, the winds might shift to ZK-rollups. The CoinDesk year-end report predicted “ZK-rollups and modular blockchains will drive the next wave of scalability” – an indication that thought leaders are expecting the ZK narrative to shine. Should that materialize, zkSync stands to gain immensely as one of the most prominent ZK-rollups with a live ecosystem and a token for investors to rally around.

至於zkSync，佢故事核心就係科技領先地位同Ethereum未來，有啲似技術信仰者嘅理想落腳點。可形容為*「ZK rollup係擴展終極方案——最優雅又安全——而zkSync係這場革命最前線」。下次牛市，如ZK-proof有突破（無論係擴展、隱私、身份），zkSync有機會成為萬眾寵兒，好似Polkadot、Cosmos過去周期靠「跨鏈」故事炒起一樣。而家ZK token已發，熱錢追捧下又會帶動大家關注zkSync鏈上指標（好多人攞住哪條鏈Coin就跟住看表現）。有分析預期到2025年，「zkSync將會係最受信任Ethereum擴展協議之一」——尤其Ethereum生態不斷增長下。保守講法係zkSync仲未證明其生態夠黏性，早期用戶好多係為空投而來。但牛市自然會重新點燃活躍度，休眠項目都會重新起死回生。如Matter Labs做到幾單大project，例如重獎金吸引頂級DeFi協議，又或出隻全建於zkSync上的爆款遊戲吸數千人，想像力可以無限。社群情緒方面：Ethereum原教旨主義者多會鍾意zkSync（同其他L2）多過Solana，因為佢貼近Ethereum發展路線。圈子實力上，Ethereum社群大好多，如果大家一齊認定某條L2係「下一件大事」，佢真係可以壓倒其他L2。2021-22年Arbitrum就有部份呢類效應，到2025主旋律可能轉去ZK-Rollup。CoinDesk年報都預測話「ZK-rollup及模組鏈將帶動擴容新浪潮」*——即係推動者已經預留ZK主題發光。屆時zkSync以現成的ZK-rollup生態和已上市Token地位，最有機會突圍而出。

Finally, consider market share and dominance metrics: As of early 2025, Solana leads in some metrics like active addresses (around 100M monthly) and daily DEX volume share (30%+ in late 2024). Base leads in Layer-2 transactions (nearly half of all L2 activity) and rapid user growth (unique addresses up 2,100% in 2024). zkSync leads in perhaps innovation count (first zkEVM mainnet) and growing share of certain niches (25% of RWA market on-chain). Each can claim a form of dominance already:

最後，睇下市佔及主導指標：2025年初，Solana喺部分指標領先，如活躍地址（每月約一億）同日均DEX交易佔比（2024年底過三成）；Base則係Layer-2交易量之首（幾乎佔一半L2流量），獨立地址增長更高達2100%；zkSync則以創新紀錄（全球首個zkEVM主網）及某些細分（25% RWA鏈上市佔）引以為傲。各自都已經可稱霸一方：

• Solana作為獨立Layer-1，在某啲使用數據上碾壓對手。
• Base係增長最快L2，背靠全球最大合規交易所。
• zkSync則引領先進加密技術於擴容應用。

The question of “Which will dominate the next bull run?” might not yield a single name as an answer. It’s plausible that each will dominate in different arenas: Solana might dominate retail trading volumes and flashy consumer dApp activity, Base might dominate in onboarding new users and overall transaction count, and zkSync might dominate in narrative and perhaps institutional DeFi adoption. If forced to name one “overall” dominator, one must weigh whether an alternative L1 (Solana) can capture more value and activity than Ethereum’s layered approach (where Base and zkSync live) in the fervor of a bull run.

到底「誰主導下輪牛市」並冇絕對答案，實際可能各自在不同領域稱王：Solana領先零售交易量同消費類dApp活躍，Base主導新手用戶入場及交易總量，zkSync就可能主導技術敘事以及機構級DeFi採納。若勉強要揀一個「總冠軍」，就得比較獨立L1（Solana）喺熱潮下能否吸納比Ethereum生態多得多的價值流量——還是多層L2（即Base、zkSync）集體方式能「層層吸金」。

Ethereum itself will certainly remain the single biggest ecosystem by value – but much of that usage could occur on L2s. It’s telling that in late 2024, when combining Ethereum mainnet with its major L2s (Arbitrum, Base, Optimism), the Ethereum extended ecosystem was larger than Solana in DEX volume and other measures. For instance, Ethereum + top L2s had about $150B DEX volume vs Solana’s $109B in the period measured. This suggests that the collective L2s already outdo Solana, but individually Solana was beating any one of them until Base’s recent surge. In Q4 2024, Base carved out a 19% DEX volume share, compared to Solana’s 30% and Arbitrum’s 10%. If Base continues on that trajectory, it could conceivably catch up to Solana’s single-chain volume in a future bull scenario. zkSync’s share was not yet in that league; it has to play catch-up in terms of sheer activity. However, bull markets can reorder rankings quickly – just as Base leapfrogged older L2s in months, zkSync could leap forward with the right catalyst (e.g., a killer app or liquidity mining boom on a ZK platform).

Ethereum當然仲係單一最大價值生態——但實際好大部分用量可能已在L2進行。2024年尾，當全網加起來（主網加Arbitrum、Base、Optimism等大L2），Ethereum擴展生態無論DEX成交還是其他指標都大過Solana。例如，Ethereum主網+各大L2同段時間DEX量約1500億，而Solana係1090億，已經集體跑贏Solana。不過單論個別鏈，Solana都一直領先任何一條L2，直至Base最近急速冒起。2024年Q4，Base 已搶得DEX市佔19%，Solana 30%，Arbitrum 10%。如Base照呢個勢頭，未來牛市真有機追到Solana單鏈記錄。zkSync暫時未入流量頭部，但牛市格局都可以極速變——正如Base數月內超越舊有L2，只要有關鍵事件（譬如ZK平台爆紅應用／流動性挖礦潮），zkSync亦可爆發。

In terms of developer mindshare and long-term viability, a balanced view from an a16z report put it well: Ethereum is still top for developers at ~21% share, but Solana and Base have emerged as the next big destinations, each capturing about 11% of new developer interest. zkSync wasn’t explicitly listed there, possibly lumped under “others” or not as high yet. But if we assume Ethereum’s base layer won’t itself dominate usage due to capacity limits, the fight is essentially between Ethereum’s satellites (like Base, zkSync, and other L2s) collectively and a standalone high-throughput ecosystem (Solana). Both can thrive, but dominance implies one eclipsing others.

就開發者注意力同項目長遠生存力，a16z分析報告中道評價：Ethereum開發者佔比仍高達21%，但Solana同Base都係新勢力，每個抓住約11%新開發者。zkSync冇明確分列，可能歸入「其他」或暫時未有起色。如果假設Ethereum主網受限於容量，不會主導所有用量，事實上這場競爭就是Ethereum附屬L2（如Base、zkSync等）集體同*獨立高吞吐量L1（Solana）*之間對決。兩者可共存，但如果討論統治地位，就得睇邊個能大幅超越其他。

Outlook: Who Will Lead in the Next Bull Run?

前景展望：下輪牛市誰將引領浪潮？

All analysis considered, Solana, Base, and zkSync each have a credible shot at “dominating,” depending on how one defines it. Dominance could be by user activity, total value locked, market capitalization, or cultural influence. It’s worth concluding with a forward-looking assessment:

總結全部分析，Solana、Base、zkSync都各有機會「主導」——視乎你點定義主導。可能以用戶活躍、總鎖倉額、市值、甚至文化影響都可以。最後值得作以下前瞻評述：

• Solana is positioned to dominate in raw high-value activity and retail-driven hype. It has proven it can attract droves of users for trading, memecoins, and NFTs when the market gets exuberant. If the next bull run brings millions of new retail participants seeking fast, cheap chains for trading and gaming, Solana could see an explosion of activity even beyond its 2024 highs. Its improvements in reliability and the positive narrative around its resurgence give it wind in the sails. We might foresee Solana becoming a centerpiece of the bull run akin

• Solana最有可能主導高價值活動及零售用戶熱潮。佢已經證明咗有能力喺牛市吸引大量炒幣、Meme幣、NFT玩家。如果下輪牛市有百萬零售新手追求快、平、新奇鏈上體驗，Solana活躍度有機會爆炸式超越2024高位。近年穩定性改善及復甦故事「順風順水」，令Solana可能再成為牛市主角。to how it was in 2021 – possibly reaching new highs in price and usage, and hosting some of the cycle’s viral dApps (maybe the next big game or metaverse could choose Solana for performance reasons). One fact-based forecast from industry insiders even imagines Solana’s ecosystem value growing to challenge Ethereum’s market cap in the coming years. While that is speculative, it shows the renewed confidence some have in Solana’s trajectory.

恢復到2021年時的情況——可能會達到價格和用途的新高峰，並承載本輪牛市中爆紅的dApp（或許下一款大型遊戲或者元宇宙平台會因為效能而選擇Solana）。有業內專家根據事實做出預測，認為Solana的生態系統市值在未來幾年有機會追上Ethereum。雖然這種說法帶有投機性，但也反映出有部分人對Solana未來發展重拾信心。

• Base is set to dominate in user onboarding and breadth of usage. Because it lowers the barrier for normal users to go on-chain, Base could become the busiest network by number of transactions and active addresses during a bull run. We’ve already seen Base leading L2s in daily transactions, and with Coinbase likely to integrate more services (maybe direct retail CBDC or stablecoin payments on Base, or integrating Base with its merchant and institutional services), the growth could be exponential. Base might not have the highest TVL (since it doesn’t incentivize locking funds with a token), but it could have the highest number of users doing something on-chain. If one imagines, say, 50 million Coinbase retail users each trying an NFT or DeFi app on Base because it’s one click away, the network effects are staggering. Base also stands to benefit from macro events – for example, if U.S. regulators/wallets favor a compliant chain, Coinbase’s Base might be seen as the “safe” choice to build on.

• Base有望在用戶導入和應用範圍方面取得主導地位。由於它大大降低了普通用戶上鏈的門檻，Base有潛力在牛市時期成為交易量及活躍地址數量最多的網絡。事實上，Base目前已經在每日交易筆數上領先其他L2，而Coinbase亦極有可能進一步整合更多服務（例如日後直接支持零售CBDC或穩定幣於Base上進行支付，或將Base與其商戶及機構級服務結合），潛在增長速度或會呈指數式上升。雖然Base的TVL可能不是最高（因為其代幣並未對鎖倉資金提供吸引力），但它有機會成為最多用戶於鏈上進行活動的網絡。想像一下，如若5,000萬名Coinbase零售用戶只需點擊一下就可以在Base上試玩NFT或DeFi應用，其網絡效應將非常驚人。Base同時也能因應大環境受益——例如，若美國監管機構或錢包挑選合規鏈，Coinbase所屬的Base很可能被視為最「安全」的建構選擇。

• zkSync may dominate in the innovation and DeFi scalability narrative. It could become the go-to network for serious DeFi players once it demonstrates its full capabilities. If by the peak of the bull run zkSync has delivered 10k+ TPS and a rich suite of protocols, it might attract large institutional trading volumes (for instance, imagine high-frequency trading firms using zkSync for its combination of speed and Ethereum-grade security – Solana has attracted HFT firms too, but some TradFi might prefer an Ethereum-aligned solution due to familiarity with Ethereum’s legal and technical stack). Also, zkSync has the chance to dominate any narrative around privacy – if it adds layer-3s for private transactions, it could be the only one of the three offering that out-of-the-box, which could be a huge draw for certain users by then. Its token, ZK, might also show “dominance” in market performance if investors bet on ZK-rollups becoming huge – one can envision ZK’s market cap climbing sharply in a speculative wave, which itself becomes a feedback loop driving more curiosity and development on zkSync.

• zkSync有機會在創新與DeFi擴展性方面成為主導者。一旦zkSync充分展現其能力，將有潛力成為重視專業DeFi玩家的首選網絡。如果在牛市高峰時，zkSync已經可以提供每秒一萬筆以上交易和一套豐富協議，它將能夠吸引大量機構級交易量（例如可想像高頻交易公司採用zkSync，享受其速度兼具Ethereum級別安全——雖然Solana也吸引過HFT公司，但部分傳統金融業者可能偏好與Ethereum同步的技術方案，因為熟悉Ethereum法律及技術框架）。此外，zkSync也很有機會成為隱私敘事的領跑者——如果zkSync加入支持私密交易的layer-3，其可能成為三者之中唯一可原生提供該功能的平台，對特定用戶將極具吸引力。其代幣ZK也有望於市場表現上「展現主導地位」，假如投資者相信ZK-rollup規模會大幅增長——不難想像ZK在投機熱潮下市值急升，反過來推動zkSync生態更多好奇與開發動力。

Ultimately, the next bull run is likely to be multi-chain in reality. No single chain may “kill” the others; instead, each could excel in different sectors. The crypto market is vast enough to accommodate multiple winners. In practical terms, users might be chain-agnostic: a gamer could be on Solana for one game, a DeFi trader on zkSync for an arbitrage, and a content creator on Base for social tokens, all within the same frenzy of a bull market.

總括而言，下輪牛市很大機會將是多鏈並存的格局。沒有任何一條鏈會「終結」其他，而是各自於不同範疇成為領先者。加密市場夠大，可以容納多個贏家。實際上，用戶會越來越跨鏈：例如玩家會為玩某隻遊戲用Solana，DeFi交易員用zkSync進行套利，內容創作人則在Base發行社交代幣——全部都發生在同一輪牛市的熱潮裡。

An unbiased, fact-grounded outlook would say: Solana, Base, and zkSync are all poised to be top-tier platforms in the coming bull run, but measuring dominance will depend on the metric. Solana has a head start in proven capacity and an avid community, Base has the largest funnel of new users and the backing of a trusted exchange, and zkSync has the most advanced scaling tech aligned with Ethereum’s future. Each carries the momentum of recent successes: Solana’s DeFi and address count hitting all-time highs, Base’s rapid uptake and integration of novel social finance models, and zkSync’s achievement in rolling out zkEVM and capturing significant RWA value.

若要以一個客觀和基於事實的角度分析：Solana、Base 和 zkSync都有能力成為下輪牛市的頂級平台，但「主導力」會依賴於你選取哪一項指標。Solana在可證明的處理能力和活躍社群方面有優勢；Base則擁有最大新用戶導流和受信賴交易所的支持；zkSync則擁有與以太坊未來發展同步、最先進的擴展技術。三者最近都有明顯突破：Solana的DeFi和地址數創歷史新高，Base迅速流行並結合了嶄新的社交金融模型，zkSync則成功推出zkEVM並捕捉大量現實資產（RWA）價值。

If one were to hazard a fact-based forecast on which might lead, a reasonable scenario is: Ethereum L2s collectively (with Base and zkSync as key players) will likely outpace any single alt-L1 in combined activity and value, continuing the trend of Ethereum’s ecosystem expansion. However, among individual networks, Solana could very well remain the single busiest L1 outside of Ethereum, and Base could become the single busiest L2, effectively putting those two in a neck-and-neck race for highest transactions and users. zkSync might trail slightly in users vs. Base (due to Coinbase’s huge advantage), but could surpass Base in total value if big DeFi projects and institutions pour liquidity into it, thanks to its strong security assurances.

如果以事實根據嘗試作出預測，合理情境是：Ethereum L2總和（以Base和zkSync為主力），在活躍度和總價值上將大機會超越任何一條單獨的替代L1，持續帶動Ethereum生態系統擴張。不過，在個別網絡層面，Solana有望繼續成為非以太坊領域最繁忙的L1，同時Base很可能成為最繁忙的L2，兩者在交易量和用戶數上形成激烈競爭。由於Coinbase的巨大優勢，zkSync在用戶數方面可能稍遜於Base，但如果大型DeFi項目和機構大量注入資金，憑藉其安全優勢，zkSync的總價值有機會超越Base。

In conclusion, the next bull run may not crown an absolute, one-chain-to-rule-them-all victor – but rather see Solana, Base, and zkSync each solidify themselves as dominant in their respective domains. Solana will showcase how a high-performance L1 can thrive alongside Ethereum, Base will demonstrate the power of seamless mainstream integration, and zkSync will highlight the arrival of cutting-edge cryptographic scaling in real markets. Crypto enthusiasts should watch all three closely: their competition – and coexistence – is likely to define the multi-chain flavor of the next bull market. Rather than betting on one, the savviest approach may be recognizing the different strengths each brings to a future where multiple networks dominate together in driving crypto’s growth.

總結而言，下輪牛市未必會有某一條鏈「一統天下」——反而會見到Solana、Base和zkSync各自在所屬領域上穩佔主導地位。Solana將展現高效能L1如何能與Ethereum共存共榮，Base則體現鏈上與主流應用無縫結合的力量，zkSync則會突出尖端密碼學擴容技術於真實市場的崛起。加密愛好者值得密切關注這三者：他們的競爭亦或是共存，很可能會定義未來牛市的多鏈色彩。與其只押注一條鏈，不如認清每者帶來的不同優勢——在多條網絡一同推動加密產業增長的未來，這將會是最精明的策略。