以太坊對比比特幣：10大原因為何ETH有機會在2025年及未來跑贏BTC

上星期，以太坊暴升突破3,000美元大關，一度見3,152美元，升幅不但力壓比特幣，更成功突破約2,990美元的主要技術下降趨勢線，重新掀起大家討論兩大加密貨幣未來的格局。

比特幣(BTC)一直是加密市場無可爭議的王者，但市值第二大的以太坊愈見受用及舉足輕重。

隨著以太坊現階段穩企於3,000美元這個心理關口，不少投資者都開始好奇：以太坊最終有沒有機會超越或長期跑贏比特幣？

本文將深入探討專家們提出的短線及長線預測，並分析5–10大理由，解釋為何以太坊未來有機會勝過比特幣。

我們亦會平衡地列出反方觀點——指出比特幣為何如此難以撼動，或者以太坊未必可追上。目的是以現時數據、專業意見及市場趨勢，客觀而中立地分析兩者競爭形勢。

以太坊近期強勢對比比特幣：未來走勢預兆？

以太坊近日的價格走勢進一步支持它短期內有力跑贏比特幣的說法。最近一輪升勢中，ETH不只是脫離熊市區間，更明顯對BTC錄得升值，帶動ETH/BTC比率同步上升。據市場數據顯示，過去一星期ETH勁升9%，明顯跑贏同期BTC的溫和升幅。這類爆發性領先表現，其實在「山寨季」時屢見不鮮。

加密分析師指出，以太坊往往在牛市階段能追近比特幣。例如在2024年底，比特幣率先炒上（受ETF憧憬及減半刺激），但到12月BTC在整體市場比重由61.7%回落到56.5%，資金開始流向以太坊和其他山寨幣。尤其是2024年美國大選後，以太坊勁升39%，輕微跑贏同期比特幣的35%，成為2025年接力增長的信號。

技術層面上，以太坊突破3,000美元及100天移動平均線，代表獲得短線支持。分析認為3,150及3,220美元為重要阻力位，一旦升穿後市或望3,300–3,450美元。ETH能領軍升市，據FXStreet分析，已令市場開始討論是否開啟新一輪Altseason。但同時比特幣本身亦不乏強勢——受機構資金推高，不時創新高。因此我們不能單看一波升勢，還要細閱其基本因素及專家預測。

ETH對BTC：短線對長線展望

短中線角度（未來1–2年），比特幣及以太坊各有驅動因素：

比特幣的利好因素： 2024年4月BTC完成四年一度減半，令新BTC供應減少，歷來這對價錢有長遠支持。美國現貨比特幣ETF（由BlackRock等巨頭推動）亦帶動市場氛圍——現貨ETF引入大量機構資金，2025年初BTC藉由新交易產品創下資金流入新高，成為推升價錢主因。而作為「數碼黃金」及加密儲備資產的角色依然主導，許多企業與知名投資者把BTC視為公司財庫儲備的核心。
以太坊的利好因素： 以太坊於2022年成功完成合併（過渡至POS），及2023年「上海」升級（開放質押ETH提現）、2024年底的「Dencun」升級（降低L2手續費）等，不斷強化網絡基本面。2025年首季預計進行大規模「Pectra」升級，是史上最大硬分叉之一，預期提升協議效率、用戶體驗和可擴展性。另外，以太坊產品線也獲監管支持：2024年美國批准以太幣期貨ETF，專家預計現貨ETF將跟隨。事實上，2024年以太ETF推出初期已見大量資金流入 —— 截至7月累計577百萬美元，甚至2024年11月下旬部份日子超越BTC ETF的流入，反映機構對以太坊不僅視為技術平台，已當成投資資產。

未來數年市場預測不一： 有分析師因近日ETH強勢轉趨樂觀。例如Finder專家小組料以太坊2025年或可突破4,000美元、並於不久後目標1萬美元。如真實現，百分比升幅(Ether從3千升到1萬的倍數)會明顯跑贏比特幣（如BTC從6萬升到20萬）。BeInCrypto更有分析員見以太坊升勢時笑言：「以太坊這速度，快成為第一大數碼資產⋯⋯比特幣信仰者都震驚！」

但亦有保守觀點提醒市場勿輕言「翻盤」（即市值超越BTC）。Forbes就2025年價格驅動因素分析：以太坊能否市值超越比特幣？2025年機會不大。原因是比特幣數碼黃金形象紮根，以及因ETF早期推出而持續吸納大量機構資金。由此看法，以太坊增長雖快，要在數年內超越比特幣極具挑戰。有些加密元老亦持懷疑態度：比特幣牛人Mike Alfred就直言「以太坊唔可能升得夠勁趕過比特幣」，認為比特幣優勢依舊巨大，而以太坊面臨激烈競爭。

長線來看（五年以上）討論更加刺激。有些專家相信以太坊有望於本十年末超越比特幣：

史丹福大學區塊鏈教授Jonathan Blake曾公開預言以太坊會在2029年「翻盤」成為全球最值錢的加密貨幣。他認為以太坊靈活的智能合約平台與蓬勃發展的DeFi生態，給予ETH比起只有價值儲存用途的比特幣強大優勢。他指出持續創新會吸引大量活動，5年內市值直逼甚至超越比特幣。
Ark Invest的Cathie Wood出名敢言，早前預測2030年BTC價格可破百萬美元一枚，對以太坊亦十分看好：其研究指ETH牛市情境下每枚或値15萬美元，意味市場價值數十萬億，遠超目前BTC規模。Ark分析師認為以太坊正演變為機構級資產，具備獨特收益產生能力，與傳統金融指標相似。換句話說，以太坊有望佔據全球金融活動的一大份額（包括DeFi及實體資產標記化），甚至跑贏比特幣份額。

當然，這類長線預測極具投機性，需謹慎看待，特別是加密市場波動極大。如下文所述，仍有不少人不信以太坊能真正「翻盤」。不過，要理解以太坊有何「跑贏」的可能，先要細看其被認同的優勢及背後邏輯。以下便列舉10大專家分析常見理由，然後再看潛在挑戰及反方意見。

1. 多元應用：以太坊不斷擴展用途 VS 比特幣僅為儲值

以太坊與比特幣最大分別之一，是「用途」完全不同。比特幣最初設計以去中心化數碼貨幣為本，現時大多只被視為價值儲存（數碼黃金）。以太坊區塊鏈則是可編程平台，支援智能合約與去中心化應用。換言之，以太坊並非單一加密貨幣，而是無限多樣生態的基礎：

去中心化金融（DeFi）： 絕大多數DeFi協議（如無中介借貸、交易、投資平台）都建基於以太坊。到2024年底，Ethereum上DeFi總鎖倉價值(TVL)約694億美元，體現資金流量與活躍度，這直接驅動ETH需求（作為GAS和抵押）。
NFT及數碼收藏： 以太坊率先推出ERC-721等NFT標準，帶動2021年後數碼藝術和收藏品市場爆發。許多大型品牌（遊戲、運動、藝術）都利用以太坊發NFT；比特幣雖有側鏈令部分資產Token化，但原生未能如以太坊般支援NFT或複雜資產發行。
穩定幣及支付： 大量美元掛鈎的穩定幣（USDT、USDC、DAI等）在以太坊網絡流通，成為加密美元交易的基礎。2021年6月， number of active addresses on Ethereum briefly surpassed Bitcoin’s, partly due to the proliferation of stablecoin and DeFi usage on ETH. Additionally, the daily transaction value settled on Ethereum often exceeds Bitcoin’s – e.g., on July 7, 2021, Ethereum settled $9.4B worth of transactions vs Bitcoin’s $6.7B. This highlights how much economic activity Ethereum is handling thanks to its diverse applications.

以太坊上活躍地址數目一度超越比特幣，部分原因是穩定幣同去中心化金融（DeFi）喺以太坊生態圈流行。除此之外，以太坊每日結算交易價值亦經常高過比特幣——例如喺2021年7月7日，以太坊結算咗94億美元交易，而比特幣則係67億美元。呢個情況突顯咗以太坊因為應用多元化，所以承載住大量經濟活動。

Tokenization of Real-World Assets: There’s a growing trend of tokenizing traditional assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) on blockchains to improve liquidity and accessibility. Ethereum, being the most established smart contract chain, is a prime candidate for such projects. Major institutions like BlackRock and others are exploring tokenization using Ethereum’s network, which could vastly increase the on-chain volume and value flowing through Ethereum. “Ethereum’s platform is already home to thousands of dApps…and it’s trusted by the best (e.g. Coinbase, Fidelity, Visa). It’s where the best developers and companies are building,” noted investor Nick Tomaino, emphasizing Ethereum’s role as the dominant platform driving innovation in crypto.
實體資產通證化： 將傳統資產（股票、債券、地產等）通證化並引入區塊鏈，愈來愈成為一個趨勢，目標係提升資產流動性同可及性。以太坊作為最成熟嘅智能合約公鏈，自然成為咗推動實體資產上鏈嘅首選對象。大型機構如BlackRock等都積極研究用以太坊網絡做資產通證化，未來有機會大幅增加以太坊鏈上交易量同資金流。投資者Nick Tomaino曾指出：「以太坊平台已經有成千上萬個dApp，而Coinbase、Fidelity、Visa等頂尖企業都信任以太坊，亦吸引到最頂級嘅開發者同公司投入建設。」呢啲都突顯咗以太坊穩坐加密創新領域嘅主導平台位置。

The implication: Ethereum’s multi-faceted utility means it can derive value from many sources: transaction fees, DeFi lending demand, NFT trading, enterprise use cases, metaverse apps, and more. This gives ETH a broad demand base that could, in theory, grow faster than Bitcoin’s demand, which relies largely on investment/wealth-preservation motives. Goldman Sachs analysts acknowledged this in 2021 by arguing that Ether has the “highest real use potential” of any crypto, thanks to Ethereum’s ability to support applications like DeFi protocols. In fact, Goldman suggested ETH’s value could eventually overtake Bitcoin’s for that very reason.

啟示： 以太坊實用性多元，價值來源可以來自好多方面：包括交易手續費、DeFi借貸需求、NFT買賣、企業應用、元宇宙等等。呢種廣泛需求，理論上有機會令ETH需求比主要靠投資／儲值（如BTC）增長得更快。高盛分析員早喺2021年已經指，以太幣擁有「所有加密貨幣之中最高嘅實際使用潛力」，特別係支援DeFi等新興應用。事實上，高盛仲講過以太幣未來估值有機會超越比特幣。

Bitcoin proponents counter that Bitcoin’s simplicity is a feature, not a bug – excelling as a censorship-resistant, scarce store of value is enough to justify BTC’s dominance, and that “being digital gold” addresses a huge market (gold’s market cap is $12 trillion, which Bitcoin could still grow into). However, as the *crypto economy expands into new realms (finance, gaming, Web3, etc.), Ethereum’s comprehensive role positions it to capture a larger share of the growth. “Ethereum is the Noah’s Ark of crypto… Bitcoin’s missing the boat,” said one observer, implying that Ethereum is carrying the entire crypto industry’s expansion on its back as the settlement layer of the modern internet. This expansive scope is a key reason many believe Ethereum’s upside could ultimately be greater.

比特幣支持者反駁，認為比特幣簡單本身就係優點——專注於做抗審查、稀缺嘅儲值工具，已經足夠支撐BTC主導地位，亦因為「數字黃金」本身可以服務一個巨大市場（黃金市值有12萬億美元，比特幣有機會慢慢追近）。但隨住加密經濟圈踏入新範疇（金融、遊戲、Web3等），以太坊因為涵蓋面廣，更有機會分到未來增長大蛋糕。有觀察者甚至話：「以太坊係加密界嘅諾亞方舟……比特幣根本錯過咗大船！」意指以太坊係現代互聯網結算層，背起整個加密產業嘅發展。正因為呢個布局，有唔少人覺得以太坊長遠升值空間會大過比特幣。

2. Technological Upgrades and Innovation Velocity

Ethereum’s development roadmap is frequently cited as a reason it could outpace Bitcoin in the future. Ethereum is a much more actively upgraded protocol, whereas Bitcoin changes very slowly by design. In recent years, Ethereum’s community has rolled out major improvements that enhance its performance and value proposition:

2. 技術升級與創新速度

以太坊發展路線圖 經常被列為未來有機會跑贏比特幣嘅原因。以太坊協議升級頻繁，相對比特幣則設計上較為穩定、變動緩慢。最近幾年，以太坊社群推出咗多項重磅改進，為網絡效能同價值主張帶嚟強勁提升：

The Merge to Proof-of-Stake (2022): Ethereum’s shift from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake consensus was a monumental change. It reduced Ethereum’s energy consumption by 99% and set the stage for a more scalable future. The Merge also altered ETH’s issuance rate (more on that in the next section) and introduced the ability for ETH holders to stake and secure the network. This adaptability stands in contrast to Bitcoin, which remains on Proof-of-Work and is unlikely to change its core consensus (Bitcoin’s community prioritizes security and immutability over rapid upgrades).
合併轉向權益證明（Proof-of-Stake，2022年）： 以太坊由工作量證明（PoW）轉為權益證明（PoS），係個劃時代嘅大轉變。合併之後，網絡耗能減少咗99%，為日後大規模擴展埋下根基。合併仲改變咗以太坊發幣速率（下一節會詳細講），同時比持有人可以質押ETH嚟保障網絡安全。呢啲靈活性，正好對比住比特幣（依然只用PoW，核心共識設計料唔會改），因為比特幣更著重安全同不可更改性，多過追求高速升級。
Scalability Enhancements (Rollups and Sharding): Ethereum’s plan for scaling involves a combination of Layer-2 solutions (rollups) and eventually sharding the main chain. Already, we see significant adoption of Layer-2 networks (like Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync, etc.) that settle transactions back to Ethereum. In late 2024, the Dencun upgrade lowered the cost for these Layer-2s to post data to Ethereum, boosting efficiency. Looking ahead, the “Pectra” upgrade in 2025 and beyond aims to implement danksharding and other throughput improvements. Each successful upgrade increases Ethereum’s capacity (transactions per second) and reduces fees, making the network more attractive for users – and thus more competitive with alternative platforms. By contrast, Bitcoin’s throughput remains 5–7 transactions per second on-chain, with scaling relegated to solutions like the Lightning Network (which, while useful for payments, hasn’t driven a comparable level of application development).
可擴展性（Rollups同Sharding）： 以太坊擴容策略結合咗Layer-2（rollups）同未來主鏈分片（sharding）。Layer-2方案（如Arbitrum、Optimism、zkSync等）已經大量落地，將交易喺主網結算。2024年底嘅Dencun升級，降低咗Layer-2寫入主鏈數據成本，提升運作效率。展望未來，「Pectra」升級（2025年起）會引入danksharding等新技術，進一步提升吞吐量。同每次升級，交易速度同成本都會有改善，令用戶體驗更好，更加有力同其他公鏈競爭。相比之下，比特幣主網每秒只處理5–7宗交易，擴容主要靠閃電網絡（Lightning Network），但多數用作支付渠道，未能推動類似以太坊層面嘅應用生態。
Smart Contract Flexibility and New Features: Ethereum’s protocol evolves with EIPs (Ethereum Improvement Proposals). Over time it has added features like ERC-20 (tokens), ERC-721 (NFTs), and various virtual machine upgrades. The ability to continually iterate and add functionality means Ethereum can respond to market needs (for example, adding opcode improvements for better DeFi efficiency, or account abstraction for user-friendly wallets). Bitcoin’s changes, such as the 2021 Taproot upgrade, are far less frequent and focused mainly on modest improvements in privacy and script flexibility. In essence, Bitcoin values stability, while Ethereum values adaptability. “Bitcoin favors stability; Ethereum prioritizes adaptability,” as one investment report succinctly put it.
智能合約彈性同新功能： 以太坊協議靠EIP（改進提案）不斷演進，先後引入咗ERC-20（代幣）、ERC-721（NFT）同各類虛擬機升級等等。可以持續加新功能，令以太坊更能貼住市場需求，例如改善DeFi效率嘅新opcode、賬戶抽象令錢包用起來更易等。比特幣則變動少得多，近年最多都係2021年Taproot改進，主要加強少少私隱同腳本彈性，成個架構依然主打穩定。正如有份報告寫：「比特幣著重穩定，以太坊重視靈活。」

By innovating faster, Ethereum could potentially capture opportunities sooner than Bitcoin. Case in point: the explosion of NFTs and DeFi in 2020–2021 happened on Ethereum – Bitcoin was largely absent from those trends (aside from being used as collateral or wrapped tokens). Some proponents argue that as new “killer apps” for blockchain emerge, they are more likely to be built on Ethereum (or its interoperable networks) than on Bitcoin, giving Ethereum a growth edge.

以太坊創新步伐快，有機會先過比特幣搶到新機遇。最明顯例子係2020–2021年NFT同DeFi爆發，全都喺以太坊發生——比特幣幾乎冇參與呢啲熱門應用（頂多用嚟做抵押或封裝代幣）。好多人話，將來新一代區塊鏈「killer app」都可能喺以太坊（或其生態）誕生，變相帶來更高增長動力。

That said, Ethereum’s aggressive upgrade path also carries execution risks. Each hard fork or new feature introduces the chance of bugs or fractures in community consensus. Ethereum’s complexity (as a stateful, Turing-complete system) means it faces challenges Bitcoin doesn’t – e.g. the risk of smart contract hacks, DeFi exploits, or unforeseen consequences of protocol changes. Bitcoin’s conservative approach avoids these risks; it’s often analogized to running on battle-tested code that changes only after years of scrutiny. As a result, Bitcoin has almost never had a disruptive technical failure, whereas Ethereum’s history includes incidents like the DAO hack (2016) that led to a controversial chain split.

不過，以太坊激進升級路線都有執行風險。每次硬分叉／加新功能，都有機會出bug或者社群意見分歧。以太坊系統較複雜（有狀態、杜林完備系統），遇到嘅挑戰亦多過比特幣，例如智能合約被黑、DeFi漏洞、協議更改後有意外後果等。比特幣保守策略就避免晒呢啲問題——好多時都比喻為「經年實戰測試、變動極少」嘅程式碼。結果就係，比特幣歷來幾乎冇出過致命技術事故；相反，以太坊試過DAO事件（2016年），引發爭議分鏈。

The bottom line on technology is that Ethereum’s rapid evolution could drive superior utility and, by extension, market performance – but it must continue to execute carefully. If Ethereum’s upgrades succeed (as recent ones have), they can greatly boost ETH’s value proposition. For example, the 2024 upgrades reducing fees and boosting Layer-2 adoption were followed by rising confidence in Ethereum as a platform. In contrast, Bitcoin’s value will likely grow from macro adoption (more people and institutions buying BTC), rather than tech upgrades, since its tech is comparatively static. In a scenario where innovation and new use cases define the next decade of crypto, Ethereum is poised to shine – potentially translating into higher demand and returns.

總結技術層面： 以太坊快速演變，有望帶嚟更高實用價值，進而推動市值上升——但都要保持穩健執行。升級如果順利（近年就幾次成功），可以極大增強ETH吸引力。例如2024年降低費用、推高Layer-2流量之後，市場信心都有所提升；而比特幣價值主要靠全球認知度和宏觀接受度，唔係技術躍進。未來十年如果以創新同新應用主導加密圈，以太坊就最有機會突圍，吸引更多需求同價值回報。

3. Ethereum’s Evolving Economic Model: Staking Yields and Deflationary Supply

A critical factor in comparing ETH and BTC is their monetary policy and economics. Bitcoin’s economics are famously simple and fixed: 21 million cap, with block rewards halving every 4 years (inflation rate approaching zero over time). Ethereum’s monetary policy has been more flexible, but recent changes have arguably made ETH more attractive economically, even relative to BTC. Two features stand out:

3. 以太坊新經濟模式：質押收益同通縮供應

比較ETH同BTC時，一個關鍵考慮就係佢哋嘅貨幣政策同經濟模型。比特幣嘅經濟結構出名簡單同固定：限量2100萬枚，每四年區塊獎勵減半（長遠通脹率近零）。以太坊政策就靈活得多，但近年改革後，經濟吸引力甚至有機會跑贏BTC。值得留意有兩點：

Staking Rewards (Yield): Under Proof-of-Stake, Ethereum holders can stake their ETH to secure the network and earn rewards. As of early 2025, roughly 28% of all ETH is locked in staking contracts, earning around 3–5% annual yield (the exact rate varies with network conditions). This means investors in ETH can get an income on their holdings natively, akin to interest or dividends, which is something Bitcoin cannot offer (you can lend out BTC or use third-party platforms to earn yield, but not through the Bitcoin protocol itself). This yield-bearing aspect is a huge draw, especially for institutional investors who often seek yield. CME Group’s research head Payal Shah noted that Ether’s staking yield is a unique advantage, and institutions may become even more interested if they can incorporate staking yield into ETFs or funds. In fact, some predict that Ethereum’s staking yield could become a kind of benchmark “reference yield” for the crypto economy, analogous to how U.S. Treasury yields serve traditional finance. ARK Invest researchers pointed out that ETH’s yield and role as collateral give it bond-like properties in digital markets – a distinctive investment profile relative to Bitcoin’s zero-yield, “pure asset” status.
質押收益（Yield）： 跟PoS設計，持有以太幣可以「鎖倉質押」賺取網絡獎勵。截至2025年初，約有28% ETH鎖定質押合約，每年回報率約為3–5%（實際視乎網絡情況浮動）。換句話講，ETH投資者本身已經可以原生獲得「息口」，有啲似息票或現金分紅（而BTC就冇，最多用第三方平台借出BTC自製收益，但Bitcoin協議本身冇呢功能）。對好多追求息口嘅機構投資者嚟講，呢個優勢非常大。CME集團研究主管Payal Shah都指，以太坊質押收益係市場一大亮點，ETF或基金如果能結合埋質押收益，未來吸引力或再提升。有專家甚至預期，以太坊質押息口有機會成為crypto生態參考利率，好似美國國債收益一樣。ARK Invest都指出，ETH質押收益加上撐作抵押品，令佢具備「數碼債券」特質，投資profile同BTC純資產唔同。
EIP-1559 and Deflationary Pressure: In August 2021, Ethereum introduced the EIP-1559 fee burn mechanism. Now, each transaction on Ethereum burns a portion of the fees (in ETH), removing it from circulation. This, combined with the reduced issuance after the Merge, dramatically changed ETH’s supply dynamics. At times of high network usage, Ethereum’s net issuance can actually turn negative (deflationary) – meaning the supply shrinks as more ETH is burned in fees than is issued to stakers. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone noted after EIP-1559 that Ethereum’s new supply was on track to drop below Bitcoin’s supply growth rate, with the potential of going negative – a powerful bullish force on price if demand stays strong. In essence, Ethereum shifted from having an “uncapped” supply with 4% yearly inflation to a regime where inflation is 0.5% and often fully offset by burns, making ETH scarcer over time.
EIP-1559同通縮壓力： 2021年8月EIP-1559實施後，以太坊每次交易會燒毀部分手續費（ETH），等同從流通中移除。再加埋合併後新發行量下降，ETH供應邏輯完全變咗。網絡高峰時，燒毀速度甚至可以超過新發行，即係「通縮」出現——供應愈燒愈少。彭博分析師Mike McGlone都話，EIP-1559後以太坊新增供應率已經落低過比特幣，而且極有機會進一步跌穿零（呈通縮），只要需求穩定，對價格形成強大推動。總括來講，以太坊由舊時無上限、每年4%通脹，轉型成新模式：通脹率只得0.5%，而且好多時完全比燒毀抵銷，令ETH長期愈來愈稀有。

Bitcoin’s

比特幣 ...（內容未完待續）fixed supply is often cited as its ultimate advantage – absolute scarcity of 21 million BTC, no more. Ethereum doesn’t have a hard cap, but with the current rules it may not need one: the supply has roughly stabilized and could even decline. Ethereum proponents dub this “ultrasound money”, suggesting ETH could be even harder money than Bitcoin if it consistently deflates (sound money being a play on Bitcoin as “sound” and ultrasound meaning beyond sound).

比特幣有限供應一直被視為其終極優勢——2,100萬枚BTC的絕對稀缺，不會再增加。以太坊雖然冇硬性上限，但根據現行規則，佢未必需要設上限：供應量大致已經穩定，甚至有可能縮減。以太坊支持者形容ETH為「超聲貨幣」（ultrasound money），即如果ETH持續通縮，變得比比特幣更「硬」的貨幣（sound money本身有「健康貨幣」之意，亦雙關Bitcoin係「sound」；而ultrasound帶有突破之意）。

For investors, a deflationary (or low inflation) asset with yield is extremely attractive. It means you have an asset growing in usage, potentially becoming more scarce, while also paying holders for participation. Over the long run, this dynamic could support Ethereum’s price growth and total return outpacing Bitcoin (which relies solely on price appreciation for return). ARK Invest’s Director of Research noted ETH is “the only real yield-bearing digital asset” of its kind, highlighting how that sets it apart.

對投資者而言，一個有機會通縮（或低通脹），同時產生收益的資產極具吸引力。即係你持有一樣越用越多人、可能愈來愈罕有、又會因為參與而有回報的資產。長遠而言，呢種動態可以支持以太坊價格增長及總回報跑贏比特幣（比特幣只靠價格升值作回報）。ARK Invest嘅研究總監就指出ETH係「唯一真正帶來收益的數碼資產」，強調咗佢的獨特性。

To illustrate, imagine two assets with equal market demand growth, but one has a 0% yield and fixed supply (BTC) and the other has 4% yield (when including potential price gains from burns) and mildly deflationary supply (ETH). The latter could deliver higher total returns to holders. This isn’t guaranteed – it assumes Ethereum’s network usage and value remain robust to sustain the burns and yields. If network activity dropped, ETH could become inflationary again (since stakers do earn new ETH). As of now, though, Ethereum’s fee burns have often exceeded issuance during busy periods (like NFT booms or DeFi bull runs), effectively shrinking supply. During one 30-day period in early 2023, Ethereum’s supply actually decreased by over 10,000 ETH due to heavy network demand.

舉個例子，假設有兩種資產，市場需求增長都一樣，但一種（BTC）冇息、固定供應，另一種（ETH）有4%收益率（計埋銷毀帶嚟嘅潛在價值上升），供應亦略為通縮。後者可能為持有人帶來更高的總回報。當然，這唔係百分百保證—要假設以太坊網絡使用量及價值足夠強勁，先可以持續銷毀同產生收益。如果網絡活動減少，ETH都會再變得通脹（因為Staking會獲得新ETH作獎勵）。不過現時，以太坊喺繁忙期（好似NFT熱潮、DeFi牛市）收取的燃燒費用時常高過新發行的數量，等於實際供應變少。2023年初其中一個30日內，以太坊因網絡需求強勁，供應量實際減少超過10,000枚ETH。

Bitcoin advocates might point out that Bitcoin’s predictability and simplicity are safer. Bitcoin’s fixed supply and halving schedule create a clear stock-to-flow dynamic that markets understand, whereas Ethereum’s changing monetary policy could be seen as less reliable (it’s governed by community and developers rather than an unchangeable code law). Also, Ethereum’s staking introduces centralization concerns (large staking pools or exchanges could concentrate influence) and slashing risks (stake can be penalized for bad behavior), which some say make ETH inherently less secure as a form of money.

比特幣支持者可能會指出，比特幣嘅可預測性同簡單性更安全。比特幣既固定供應及減半周期，建立咗一個市場易於理解的「庫存流量」機制，但以太坊的貨幣政策變動較多，被認為冇咁可靠（係由社群同開發者主導，而非永不可改變的程式碼法則）。此外，以太坊Staking又帶嚟中心化問題（大型質押池和交易所可能集中權力），加上因行為失當會被「斬倉」懲罰，有人認為令ETH作為貨幣本身冇比特幣咁安全。

Nonetheless, many experts now view Ethereum’s economic design post-Merge as a strong plus. “Ether’s robust staking dynamics, steady fees and growing institutional interest – particularly through ETFs – are key factors driving optimism” for ETH, CoinDesk noted in an outlook. In short, Ethereum has engineered a financial incentive structure that might accelerate its adoption and price appreciation, potentially outpacing Bitcoin’s more static, pure-supply-and-demand regime in the process.

不過，愈來愈多專家都認為，以太坊合併（Merge）後經濟設計係重大優勢。CoinDesk發表的展望指出：「ETH強健的質押機制、穩定嘅費用，以及機構透過ETF參與的興趣日益增加，都是推動ETH樂觀情緒的關鍵因素。」總結而言，以太坊設計出既誘因架構，有機會加快普及及升值速度，甚至超越比特幣較靜態、純供需主導的增長模式。

4. Institutional Adoption and the ETF Race: Ethereum Closing the Gap

For years, Bitcoin was virtually the only cryptocurrency that traditional institutions were willing to touch. That is changing fast – and Ethereum is at the forefront of this shift. When we talk about “outperformance,” a lot comes down to where big money (institutions, funds, corporations) chooses to allocate in crypto. Recent signs show Ethereum is gaining favor among these players, not just Bitcoin:

4. 機構採用與ETF大戰：以太坊收窄差距

過去多年，傳統機構基本只敢碰比特幣。不過局勢變得好快——而以太坊正正走在這轉變的最前線。當談到「跑贏大市」，關鍵係大額資金（機構、基金、企業）將加密資產配置喺邊度。最近不少跡象顯示，以太坊愈來愈受這批玩家歡迎，不止得比特幣：

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and Trusts: Bitcoin was first to get investment vehicles like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and later Bitcoin futures ETFs (approved in the U.S. in 2021). Ethereum quickly followed suit. Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) attracted institutional investors looking for exposure to ETH’s price. Then in late 2023, the U.S. approved multiple Ether futures ETFs, and by mid-2024, as noted, there was optimism for a spot Ethereum ETF approval. The launch of spot ETH ETFs in 2024 (in jurisdictions where allowed) saw strong demand – hundreds of millions in inflows. Notably, during one week of November 2024, Ether ETFs surpassed Bitcoin ETFs in daily inflows, with over $467 million flowing into ETH funds in a single day. Such data suggests that investor appetite for ETH exposure is deepening, possibly faster than many anticipated. Each new regulated product (whether an ETF, ETP, or mutual fund) lowers the barrier for pensions, hedge funds, and even retail 401(k) plans to include Ethereum.
交易所買賣基金（ETF）及信託產品： 比特幣首先獲得市場投資工具，例如Grayscale Bitcoin Trust（GBTC），後來又有比特幣期貨ETF（美國2021年通過）。以太坊隨即仿效。Grayscale以太坊信託（ETHE）吸引一眾想投資ETH價格走勢的機構客。然後到2023年尾，美國正式批出多個ETH期貨ETF；如前所述，2024年中市場更盼望實現現貨以太ETF。2024年推出現貨ETH ETF（於容許地區）即錄得龐大需求——數億美元湧入。值得留意，2024年11月其中一星期，以太幣ETF單日淨流入首次超越比特幣ETF，一日內就有超過4.67億美元投入ETH基金。呢啲數據反映投資者對ETH配置的胃口增強，甚至快過業界預期。每有新監管產品問世（無論ETF、ETP或共同基金），對退休金、對沖基金甚至零售401(k)來說，投資以太坊的門檻就更低。
Institutional Investment Thesis: Bitcoin’s thesis – digital gold, inflation hedge, uncorrelated asset – is well known on Wall Street now. Ethereum’s thesis is more nuanced but increasingly compelling: Ethereum offers exposure to the growth of decentralized tech and finance, a bet on the “Web3” future. As one analyst put it, Ethereum has a “clearer institutional investment thesis (programmable money, DeFi infrastructure)” than most other altcoins, making it the primary beneficiary when institutions look beyond just Bitcoin. We are starting to see this play out. For example, some corporations are now diversifying their crypto treasury strategies by adding ETH. In May 2025, a Nasdaq-listed company SharpLink Gaming announced a $425 million allocation to initiate an Ethereum treasury strategy, essentially following MicroStrategy’s BTC playbook but with Ether. It’s a sign that holding ETH as a reserve asset is becoming thinkable.
**機構資產配置理念：**比特幣的定位——數碼黃金、通脹對沖、非相關資產——依家華爾街人盡皆知。以太坊則相對複雜又愈來愈具說服力：ETH係押注去中心化科技及金融發展、投資未來「Web3」革命。某分析師指出，以太坊在機構面前比大部分山寨幣有更明確的投資理念（可編程貨幣、DeFi基建），當機構目光超越比特幣時，自然成為首選。我哋已經見到這趨勢：例如，企業開始將ETH納入資產組合分散風險。2025年5月，納斯達克上市公司SharpLink Gaming宣布配置4.25億美元開展以太坊資金庫策略，等同效法MicroStrategy搞BTC資金政策，只係將對象換成ETH，顯示ETH作為儲備資產已變得合理。
Rotation and Diversification: There’s a concept of institutional rotation – big investors initially buy Bitcoin as the “safe” crypto, but as that trade becomes crowded or BTC grows very large, incremental upside might lessen (diminishing returns). At that point, they start rotating into Ethereum for greater growth. “Bitcoin’s dominance faces natural ceiling effects as its market cap grows… diminishing returns on institutional inflows at current size,” explained Marcin Kazmierczak, a crypto fund COO. With Bitcoin around a $2 trillion market cap in late 2025 (in that scenario), he questioned BTC’s ability to keep vastly outperforming once so large. He expects Ethereum to be the next big institutional play as BTC approaches $150k–$200k per coin, because at that stage institutions will seek the next opportunity. Ethereum, being the second-largest and much smaller by market cap than BTC, stands out as the logical next choice for large-cap crypto exposure. Its market cap is still a fraction of Bitcoin’s, so some foresee capital “diversifying” into ETH for a potentially higher ROI.
**輪換同分散投資：**機構資金經常有個「輪換」概念——一開始買比特幣，當成最「穩陣」的加密貨幣，但一旦該市場過於擠擁，或BTC規模變得太大，每單位增長空間自然減少（邊際回報下降）。到時候，資金會輪換入以太坊追求更高增長。加密貨幣基金COO Marcin Kazmierczak形容：「比特幣的主導地位因市值上升，會自然封頂……機構再流入的回報會愈縮水。」若比特幣於2025年底市值升至約2萬億美元（假設情境），佢都質疑BTC屆時能否繼續大幅跑贏。他預期BTC升至15–20萬美元一枚時，機構會主動追尋下個增長機會，而以太坊市值雖然排行第二，但依然遠小於BTC，理所當然成為加密資產配置下個熱門選擇。由於ETH市值只係BTC幾分一，故有觀點認為資本會「輪換分散」到ETH搵更高回報。
Evidence of Growing Interest: Beyond ETFs, consider other signs: Venture capital and corporate investments are flowing into Ethereum’s ecosystem – whether it’s ConsenSys (an Ethereum software company), Ethereum layer-2 startups, or companies like Visa exploring stablecoin payments on Ethereum. Financial giants (JPMorgan, Fidelity, etc.) have experimented with Ethereum-based networks (like Quorum, an Ethereum variant, or the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance projects). While Bitcoin is being adopted as an alternative asset, Ethereum is being adopted as an alternative platform. Both are meaningful, but the latter could drive more sustained demand for ETH if, say, big banks start using Ethereum for tokenizing assets or settling trades (each such use would require holding some ETH).
**興趣不斷增長的證據：**除ETF外，仲有好多跡象：無論係風投、企業資金，都持續湧入以太坊生態——包括ConsenSys（以太坊軟件開發商）、各類Layer-2創業團隊，以至像Visa這種大公司研究穩定幣在以太坊鏈上流通。金融巨頭如摩根大通、富達等都曾嘗試以太坊底層網絡（如Quorum或Enterprise Ethereum Alliance等項目）。比特幣的採納方向偏向「另類資產」，而以太坊則成為「另類平台」。兩者意義不同，但後者更有潛力帶動ETH需求長期增長——例如大型銀行如用以太坊代幣化資產或結算交易，每次都要持有一定ETH。

Importantly, Ethereum is narrowing the gap with Bitcoin in the eyes of regulators and institutions. It used to be that Bitcoin had the clear regulatory green light (as a commodity), while Ethereum was in a gray area. There is still some regulatory uncertainty around ETH (e.g., SEC officials have dodged clearly labeling ETH a commodity or security), but the fact that futures ETFs for ETH were approved and that ETH is covered in CFTC reports signals growing regulatory acceptance. The CFTC has at times asserted ETH is a commodity, aligning it with Bitcoin. Each step in this direction reduces a hurdle for institutions to get involved.

值得注意的是，從監管及機構角度，以太坊正逐步拉近與比特幣的距離。以前，比特幣屬於監管明確認可（商品地位），而以太坊長期處於灰色地帶。雖然ETH的監管仍然有少少不確定性（例如SEC官員從未明確界定ETH屬「商品」定「證券」），但期貨ETF獲批，同時CFTC報告已涵蓋ETH，反映監管接受程度提高。CFTC亦曾明言ETH屬「商品」，和比特幣看齊。每一步都為機構進場拆牆鬆綁。

The ETF story, in particular, is seen as a game-changer. Crypto analysts have speculated that a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval (widely expected as of 2024–25) would cause a wave of liquidity into BTC, possibly pushing prices to six figures. If/when that happens, many believe a spot Ethereum ETF would not be far behind. Once both assets have these mainstream gateways, the race becomes more about fundamentals and demand than accessibility. And as we’ve outlined, Ethereum’s fundamentals (yield, utility) give investors multiple reasons to allocate to it, perhaps even over-allocate relative to Bitcoin for those seeking growth. In late 2024, CoinDesk noted a “growing interest of institutions in ether ETFs signifies diversification of institutional portfolios, which were once largely focused on bitcoin”. This institutional diversification trend could accelerate ETH’s gains.

ETF主題尤其被視為翻天覆地的轉捩點。加密分析師曾推測美國如果批准現貨比特幣ETF（2024-25年普遍預期），將掀起資金潮推高BTC價格至六位數。一旦此事成真，市場普遍相信很快會批准現貨以太ETF。當兩者都開通正規資金入口，競爭就唔再係「買唔買得到」的問題，而係基本面同需求比拼。如上所述，以太坊的優勢在於收益率和實用性，為投資者帶來多元資金分配理由，甚至在追求增長時有可能相對於比特幣「超額配比」。CoinDesk在2024年尾指出：「機構對ETH ETF興趣日益增長，意味著本過度集中於比特幣的資產組合有多元化趨勢。」這種資本分流，可望令ETH表現更進一步。

In summary, Bitcoin may have been the first through the door of institutional adoption, but Ethereum is coming through strongly right after. We’re already seeing Ethereum-specific catalysts (like ETH ETF inflows and corporate buys) supporting its price independent of Bitcoin. Should this deepen, Ethereum could outperform simply by virtue of increased relative demand from big investors.

總結而言，比特幣雖然率先完成機構採納的「破門」，但以太坊緊隨其後，愈來愈有力。我們已見到多個以太坊專屬催化劑（如ETH ETF淨流入、企業採購等）能獨立支持其價格表現。若然形勢繼續深化，ETH單憑大規模資本相對增長的需求，就有力跑贏比特幣。

5. Market Cycles and the “Altseason” Phenomenon

Crypto markets have tended to move in cycles, and one pattern often observed is: Bitcoin leads, then Ethereum (and others) outperform later in the cycle. This pattern is colloquially known as the rotation into “altseason” – where, after Bitcoin has a strong run, investors rotate profits into altcoins (with Ethereum usually being the largest and among the first beneficiaries). If this historical rhythm holds, Ethereum could see periods of significant outperformance against Bitcoin in bullish phases.

5. 市場周期同「山寨季」現象

加密市場一向呈周期運行，而且常見的模式係：比特幣帶頭，然後以太坊（及其他幣）於周期中後段開始跑贏。呢種現象俗稱進入「山寨季」（altseason）——即比特幣一輪大升市後，資金利潤會流向山寨幣，以太坊通常最大受惠者之一。如果這歷史規律重現，ETH喺牛市期間有望多次大幅跑贏比特幣。

A look at recent history:

回顧最近歷史：

2017 Cycle: Bitcoin hit then-record highs in December 2017 ($19k), but it was Ethereum that had one of the most explosive runs around the same time, skyrocketing from under $10 at the start of 2017 to over $1,400 at its January 2018 peak. During some stretches, ETH’s percentage gains vastly
**2017年周期：**比特幣2017年12月創新高（$19,000），不過以太坊同一時期亦爆升——2017年年初唔夠$10，2018年1月高峰時升穿$1,400。某啲時段，ETH升幅遠超比特幣。outstripped BTC’s. This was the first major “flippening” discussion moment, when Ethereum’s market cap came within about 50% of Bitcoin’s. Analysts noted ETH significantly outperformed BTC in late 2017, as the ICO boom (built on Ethereum) drove demand.

超越咗BTC。呢一刻係第一次出現重大嘅「翻轉」（flippening）討論，就係以太坊市值去到比特幣大約50%水平。分析師指出，以太幣喺2017年尾大幅跑贏比特幣，因為當時ICO熱潮（基於以太坊）推高咗需求。

2021 Cycle: Bitcoin had a huge rally in late 2020 through April 2021 (reaching $64k), then again in late 2021 (peaking $69k in November). Ethereum, however, went from $130 in March 2020 to over $4,800 by November 2021 – a far larger return. In the summer of 2021, there was a period where ETH/BTC ratio climbed sharply, fueled by DeFi growth and EIP-1559 excitement. Google searches for “the flippening” spiked in May 2021 when Ethereum’s price hit $4k and its market share approached 20%. At one point in 2021, ETH’s market cap was over 45% of BTC’s (nearly half), before retracing. Many altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in 2021, with Ether leading that pack among majors.
2021週期： 比特幣喺2020年尾到2021年4月有一個超大型升浪（升到$64,000），然後2021年尾再創新高（11月升到$69,000）。不過，以太幣就由2020年3月嘅$130，一路升到2021年11月高過$4,800——回報遠遠多過比特幣。2021年夏天，ETH/BTC比例曾急升，因為DeFi爆發同埋EIP-1559憧憬。2021年5月，以太幣價錢升到$4,000，市佔率逼近20%時，Google搜尋「the flippening」爆登。2021年一度，以太坊市值去到比特幣嘅45%以上（近乎一半），之後又回調。好多山寨幣喺2021年都跑贏比特幣，以太幣喺主流幣中係升得最勁嗰隻。
2024–25 Cycle (Current): As described earlier, Bitcoin’s 2024 halving and ETF news propelled BTC dramatically (hypothetically to six figures by early 2025). Initially, Ethereum lagged – for most of 2024, ETH underperformed BTC (BTC dominance climbed as high as 60%). However, late 2024 and into 2025, ETH started to catch up, with ETH/BTC rebounding from multi-year lows. Payal Shah pointed out that by November 2024 the ETH/BTC ratio fell to 0.0329 (its lowest since 2017), possibly marking a bottom as improved regulatory outlook and institutional adoption began favoring ETH. Since then, Ethereum has rallied faster than Bitcoin, hinting at a classic rotation.
2024–25週期（現時）： 如前所述，比特幣2024減半同ETF消息推高咗BTC（假設到2025年初上六位數字）。一開始，以太坊落後——大部分2024年，ETH都跑輸BTC（BTC主導率升到60%）。不過，到2024年尾同2025年，ETH開始追上，ETH/BTC比例由多年低位反彈。Payal Shah指出，到2024年11月，ETH/BTC跌到0.0329（自2017年以來最低），可能係見底，因為監管前景改善同機構開始偏愛ETH。由此之後，以太坊升勢快過比特幣，似乎進入一個典型資金輪動。

Visualizing this, the weekly ETH/BTC chart below shows Ethereum’s relative performance trend. After a long decline through 2022–2024, we see a notable uptick in 2025 as ETH regains ground:

睇返圖表，下面週線ETH/BTC圖展示咗以太坊相對表現嘅趨勢。經過2022至2024年長期走低之後，2025年見到明顯回升，ETH追回部分失地：

Weekly chart of the ETH/BTC price ratio through May 2025. Ethereum lagged Bitcoin for much of 2022–2024, but in 2025 the trend has started to reverse, with ETH/BTC rising off lows (each candlestick represents one week).

ETH/BTC價格比率截至2025年5月的週線圖。以太坊喺2022–2024年大部分時間都跑輸比特幣，但2025年趨勢開始逆轉，ETH/BTC由低位回升（每支蠟燭代表一星期）。

This cyclic rotation is also described by market observers as part of crypto’s bull phases. “Typically, bitcoin leads the rally, then consolidates as ether and other alts catch up,” wrote Shah, noting that indeed Bitcoin’s dominance falling in late 2024 suggested altcoins (led by ETH) were starting to gain momentum. Another analyst at Bitfinex, Jag Kooner, commented that in the 2025 cycle, Ether’s strength was appearing “alongside, not after, BTC’s price acceleration,” which he saw as especially bullish – “capital isn’t exiting Bitcoin, it’s compounding across L1s… we’re in Phase 3 of the bull cycle, where BTC strength stabilizes, ETH accelerates, and capital spreads out across selective altcoins”.

呢種循環輪動亦被市場觀察家形容為加密牛市階段一部分。「通常由比特幣帶頭升，然後盤整，等以太坊同其他山寨追上」，Shah咁寫道，佢指出2024年尾BTC主導率下跌，證明以ETH為首嘅山寨開始接棒。Bitfinex分析師Jag Kooner則評論講，2025年週期，ETH強勢係「同BTC升浪一齊出現，不係之後先跟」，佢認為特別牛——「資金冇走出比特幣，而係在各L1區塊鏈疊加……我哋而家喺牛市第三階段，BTC穩定，ETH加速，資金分流去部分山寨幣。」

The implication is that Ethereum can outperform Bitcoin simply by the natural progression of a bull market. Bitcoin, being larger and often the first stop for new money entering crypto, might rise first – but once it gets “too high” or cools off, attention turns to Ethereum, which often has more room to run. Ethereum’s market cap is smaller, so it takes less new money in percentage terms to move it upward. Additionally, success breeds success: as Ethereum starts to rally strongly, it sparks chatter of the flippening, drawing in momentum traders and latecomer investors who don’t want to miss out on “the next Bitcoin-like run.”

即係話，以太坊可以單靠牛市自然循環就跑贏比特幣。比特幣盤子大，好多入市新錢都會先買BTC，所以升浪通常由佢帶起——但當比特幣「太貴」或者回調時，資金就會轉去以太坊，因為升幅潛力更大。以太坊市值細啲，所需新入場資金比例細好多，更易推升。再加上，升得好激就會令人再入場：以太坊急升時，「翻轉」討論又起，動能交易員同遲來投資者唔想錯過「下一個比特幣」升浪，又推高多一層。

Of course, this pattern can work in reverse during bear markets: In downturns, Ethereum typically underperforms Bitcoin, falling more in percentage terms. This is because in risk-off conditions, investors view Bitcoin as the safer asset (digital gold narrative), while ETH and other alts are seen as higher risk. Indeed, in the 2018 bear market, ETH fell about 90% from peak to trough, more than Bitcoin’s roughly 80% drop. Similarly, in the 2022 bear market, ETH declined from $4,800 to $880 (an 82% drop), versus Bitcoin’s 77% drawdown from $69k to $16k. This higher volatility is the price for Ethereum’s higher upside. It suggests that sustained outperformance by Ethereum is most likely to manifest in bull cycles, whereas in bear phases Bitcoin could reassert its strength.

當然，熊市時呢個模式就會倒轉：市況向下時，以太坊通常跑輸比特幣，跌幅（以百分比計）更大。原因係「避險」狀態下，投資者覺得比特幣係較安全資產（數碼黃金論），而ETH同其他山寨幣就係風險資產。2018年熊市，ETH由頂到底跌咗約90%，比特幣就跌咗約80%。2022年熊市，ETH由$4,800 跌到$880（跌幅82%），而比特幣由$69,000 跌到$16,000（跌幅77%）。波幅大係以太坊高升值空間嘅代價。呢個現象暗示，以太坊想長期跑贏比特幣，主要有賴於牛市，熊市時比特幣通常會重奪領先地位。

For Ethereum to truly surpass Bitcoin in a lasting way, it might require not just an altseason blip but a fundamental shift that carries through even in bear markets (for example, if ETH’s broader utility means it retains more usage and therefore value even in downturns). We may see if such a shift is underway based on how the next market cycle plays out. But the historical cyclical behavior strongly supports the idea that at least in bull runs, Ethereum can outpace Bitcoin’s growth.

如果以太坊要徹底超越比特幣，唔只係靠山寨周期一時衝上去，而係要發生一個根本性轉變，就算喺熊市都保住優勢（比如ETH多元用途令佢喺淡市都有用、有價值）。究竟有冇呢種轉變，可能要睇下一個市場周期先知。不過以往周期走勢都充分證明，最少喺牛市期間，以太坊真係可以升幅大過比特幣。

6. Developer Activity and Ecosystem Growth

6. 開發者活躍度同生態系統增長

Another often-cited reason for Ethereum’s potential long-term edge is its developer community and rate of ecosystem growth. Ethereum, since its inception, has attracted a huge number of developers, entrepreneurs, and projects building on top of it. This can be seen as analogous to a platform like an operating system – the more applications and developers it has, the more valuable the platform (and its native asset) potentially becomes. By many measures, Ethereum’s ecosystem is the richest in crypto:

另一個成日都被提及嘅，以太坊有潛力長期跑贏比特幣的原因，係其開發者社區同生態增長速度。以太坊由出現一刻起，已經吸引咗大量開發者、創業家、同埋唔同項目湧入。呢種現象類似操作系統一樣——越多應用同開發者，平台同其原生資產就越值錢。從好多角度嚟睇，以太坊生態喺加密圈係最豐富嘅：

Developer Count: Ethereum consistently ranks #1 in terms of number of active developers among blockchain platforms. Thousands of developers contribute to Ethereum’s core protocol and tens of thousands build on its application layer. This far exceeds Bitcoin’s developer count (Bitcoin development is robust but far more limited in scope – mainly protocol devs and Lightning devs). The army of Ethereum devs means faster innovation and more new features or dApps that can drive adoption of ETH.
開發者數量： 以太坊活躍開發者數一直高踞區塊鏈平台首位。數千人為以太坊底層協議貢獻，應用層就有成萬計程式員。呢個量級遠超比特幣（比特幣開發都好穩定，不過範圍細好多——主要係協議同閃電網絡）。有咁多Ethereum開發者就帶動創新快、新功能、新DApp層出不窮，有利推動ETH普及。
DApp Ecosystem: Virtually every category of decentralized application was pioneered or has a significant presence on Ethereum – from decentralized exchanges (Uniswap), lending platforms (Aave, Compound), NFT marketplaces (OpenSea), gaming (Axie Infinity originally), social networks, prediction markets (Augur), stablecoins (MakerDAO’s DAI), and so on. “Ethereum is the dominant platform for stablecoins, DeFi, NFTs, prediction markets, decentralized identity, social and more. It’s trusted by the best, and the protocol is constantly evolving,” as investor Nick Tomaino summarized. This breadth means Ethereum is entrenched as the base layer of Web3 innovation. Each successful dApp on Ethereum potentially adds to demand for ETH (for gas or as collateral). Additionally, many Ethereum dApps create network effects that reinforce Ethereum’s value – e.g. the more people use DeFi on Ethereum, the more liquidity and utility ETH has.
DApp生態系統： 幾乎所有類型嘅去中心化應用最早都係由以太坊引領或有重大領域存在——由去中心化交易所（Uniswap）、借貸平台（Aave、Compound）、NFT市場（OpenSea）、區塊鏈遊戲（Axie Infinity起家）、社交網絡、預測市場（Augur）、到穩定幣（MakerDAO嘅DAI）等都涵蓋晒。「以太坊係穩定幣、DeFi、NFT、預測市場、去中心化身份、社交等最主流平台，最top嘅人都信任佢，協議仲不斷進化中。」投資人Nick Tomaino如是說。種類夠多，令以太坊係Web3創新最底層。每個喺以太坊成功嘅應用都可能拉高ETH需求（充GAS或者做抵押）。好多DApp仲帶嚟網絡效應加強Ethereum價值——越多人用DeFi，ETH流動性同功能就更勁。
Network Effects and Talent: There’s a self-reinforcing cycle – talented developers want to build where the users and liquidity are (that’s Ethereum), and users go where the cool new apps and tokens are (also Ethereum). Competing smart contract platforms (whether it’s Solana, BNB Chain, Cardano, etc.) have risen, but none have managed to flip Ethereum’s network effect in developers or total value locked. Ethereum’s first-mover advantage in smart contracts, plus its active community, make it a vibrant hub of innovation. Over time, if one believes software eats the world and many services become decentralized, Ethereum’s lead in developers could translate to it “eating” more and more of traditional finance and internet services. This naturally would boost Ethereum’s value and could allow it to grow its market cap faster than Bitcoin, which doesn’t directly benefit from dApp growth since very few applications run on Bitcoin’s base layer.
網絡效應與人才： 呢個生態係正反饋循環——有實力開發者想去最多人同最多錢（流動性）嘅鏈（即以太坊），用戶又想用最多新App、最大流動性嘅鏈（又係以太坊）。雖然Solana、BNB Chain、Cardano等競爭智能合約平台崛起，但無一間搶得到Ethereum喺開發者同鎖倉價值(TVL)咁嘅網絡效應。以太坊智能合約先發優勢再加上活躍社群令佢係創新樞紐。長遠嚟講，如果相信軟件吞噬世界、服務去中心化，以太坊開發者領先優勢會令佢逐步吞噬傳統金融同互聯網生意，自然帶動ETH升值、而且市值增長會快過比特幣（因為btc層唔行dapp，受惠唔大）。
Upgrades Through Community Coordination: Ethereum’s community governance (through Ethereum Improvement Proposals and rough consensus) enables it to implement upgrades that rally community support (like the Merge, EIP-1559, etc.). While at times contentious, this mechanism has allowed Ethereum to adapt and improve relatively quickly. The strength of the community – including influential figures like Vitalik Buterin, developers, and stakeholders – has generally kept Ethereum’s roadmap on track. A strong community also means there’s public buy-in for changes that could enhance ETH’s value (e.g., the fee burn was widely supported as it benefits holders). In contrast, Bitcoin’s community is very conservative and averse to changes that alter Bitcoin’s core economics or design – which preserves what Bitcoin is, but arguably limits doing anything that could directly boost BTC’s utility or demand beyond its established use case.
社區協調推動升級： 以太坊嘅社區治理（透過Ethereum Improvement Proposal同rough consensus），可以推動到獲得社群支持嘅升級（如合併Merge、EIP-1559等等）。雖然有時會爭拗，但呢套玩法令Ethereum可較快適應改良。社區力量（包括Vitalik Buterin在內嘅一眾意見領袖、開發者、持分者）令Ethereum路線圖基本冇偏離。強大社群亦容許有利ETH價值、能夠令大家有共識支持嘅變革（例如燃燒GAS費制大家都贊成，因為持幣人有著數）。相比之下，比特幣社群就極度保守，唔想郁經濟學或設計層面，本意係保護BTC本色，不過相對亦限制咗任何可以直接提升BTC應用或需求嘅諗法。

To use an analogy: Bitcoin is like a very secure, unchanging mainframe, whereas Ethereum is a bustling developer platform akin to an app store or a software ecosystem. Over the long run, the latter might generate more economic activity (and thus value capture) than the former. Some experts, like Galaxy Digital’s research head Alex Thorn, have argued that if Ethereum can tap even a small fraction of huge markets (like global finance, art, etc.), it could dwarf Bitcoin’s market cap eventually. Thorn gave a striking example: capturing just 1% of the $400 trillion global derivatives market via decentralized platforms on Ethereum could alone cause ETH’s market cap to eclipse Bitcoin’s. While that’s a speculative scenario, it underscores the notion that Ethereum’s total addressable market (TAM) is enormous – essentially the digitization of all kinds of assets and contracts. Bitcoin’s TAM, arguably, is the size of the global store-of-value market (gold, reserve assets, etc.), which is large but narrower.

用個比喻：比特幣好似一部超安全、唔變嘅主機（mainframe），而以太坊就係成個App Store或者軟件生態平台。長線計，後者可能帶動更多經濟活動（吸納更多價值）。有專家如Galaxy Digital研究主管Alex Thorn話，只要以太坊食到巨型市場一小撮份額（例如全球金融、藝術市場等等），市值都可以大幅跑贏比特幣。Thorn舉例：如果Ethereum去中心化平台食到全球衍生品市場$400萬億嘅1%，咁ETH市值就已經可以超越比特幣。雖然只係假設，但顯示Ethereum潛在可服務市場（TAM）大到不得了——即係所有資產、合約數碼化。比特幣TAM理論上係全球儲值市場（黃金、儲備資產等），雖大但範疇明顯窄好多。

It’s important to note that developer enthusiasm can shift – Ethereum’s dominance in dev community has been tested by newer blockchains (many developers did flock to cheaper, faster chains during times Ethereum was congested). However, Ethereum’s move to Layer-2 scaling and its upgrades are aimed at keeping devs and users satisfied by alleviating issues like high gas fees. So far, Ethereum has maintained its leadership. If it continues to do so, the pace of

要留意，開發者熱情會轉移——以太坊喺開發者社群地位曾經受到新區塊鏈挑戰（Ethereum擠塞時，唔少開發者轉投平啲、快啲的新鏈）。不過，Ethereum近年推出Layer-2方案同升級，都係針對解決高GAS等問題，目標係留住開發者同用戶。到目前為止，以太坊都仲保持領先地位。如果可以繼續保持……Here is your requested translation, formatted as per your instructions (skipping translation for markdown links):

以太坊上的創新，或令ETH在網絡擴張方面，比BTC擁有更佳的增長故事。

總括而言，以太坊豐富的生態系統及開發者動能，令它不斷找到新的方式去創造價值（這部分會累積回ETH），而比特幣的價值增長則主要仰賴於其較為固定的用途被更廣泛採用。這種活力正是很多人相信以太坊能夠跑贏的關鍵原因——投資以太坊，不單是投資一種貨幣，更像是投資在未來經濟建構於這種貨幣之上。

7. 資產代幣化與Web3的崛起（宏觀趨勢推動）

從更宏觀層面去看，科技和金融正出現一些趨勢，這些可能令以太坊比比特幣獲益更大。當中兩個主要方向分別是資產代幣化，以及Web3（去中心化互聯網）的擴展。而以太坊正正位於這兩個核心：

傳統資產的代幣化： 如前所述，資產代幣化指的是把現實世界資產如股票、債券、房地產、商品等的擁有權，以數碼代幣形式呈現在區塊鏈上。這為傳統金融帶來了更高效率（24小時全年無休交易、可細分持有權、即時結算）。不少機構正積極探索資產代幣化，而他們很多都選擇以太坊（或兼容以太坊的網絡）來進行試點項目。例如匯豐銀行（HSBC）及其他銀行，已經在以太坊系統發行過債券，亦有政府考慮把債券或國債代幣化、至於高盛（Goldman Sachs）等公司亦建立了基於以太坊的資產代幣化平台。如果全球價值以百萬億美元計的資產，有一部分最終在公開網絡上代幣化，以太坊作為基建有機會成為最大得益者。渣打分析師亦曾指，其他資產如XRP或新興平台可能會有角色，但以太坊目前依靠開發者規模及信譽，預計會繼續領先，除非有更優秀的技術出現。每一個在以太坊代幣化的資產，都可能提升對ETH的需求（用於手續費、作為抵押品，或帶動更多用戶進入以太坊領域）。
去中心化網絡（Web3）： Web3的願景，是用戶能夠持有數據及價值、應用程式則去中心化。以太坊經常被稱為Web3的支柱，因為很多Web3項目（由社交媒體替代品到元宇宙平台）都利用了以太坊或其協議來處理身份認證、數據存儲（用代幣/NFT），及交易。例如，正在冒起的元宇宙及遊戲數碼物品經濟——以太坊上的NFT正是天然的媒介；又如去中心化社交媒體，一個以太坊身份（例如ENS網域等）可能成為你的通用登入。這些發展加速，意味以太坊的角色就像互聯網的新協議層，負責傳輸價值，有機會捕捉到越來越多遷移到線上的經濟活動。

比特幣在這些趨勢中的角色則較有限。比特幣在某些地方正被用作支付層（如透過閃電網絡作交易、或在部分DeFi平台如RSK或Liquid側鏈用作儲值抵押），但它並不是推動資產代幣化或承載Web3 dApp的平台。事實上，某些代幣化措施是把比特幣作為一種資產放在以太坊或其他鏈（例如“包裝BTC”）上，而非基於比特幣平台本身。所以，如果你相信「一切有價值的東西最終都會上鏈」，那以太坊（或類似的平台）相對比特幣將會有巨大收益。

具體例子：現實資產（RWA）於DeFi中的代幣化規模持續擴大——例如將美國國庫券、房地產等代幣化，然後用於以太坊DeFi協議賺取收益。貝萊德（BlackRock）行政總裁Larry Fink在2022年就曾表示，「市場與證券的下一代，會是證券的代幣化」。以太坊很可能會成為這個新時代的平台。如果數十億甚至數萬億美元的現實資產以ERC-20或ERC-1400代幣方式存在，每一次交易及結算都需用ETH，必然會推高以太坊網絡價值與ETH價格。

簡單說，以太坊正隨着技術普及曲線騰飛（如同雲計算拉動某些科技股一樣）。比特幣雖然同樣受惠於去信任法定貨幣或「數碼黃金」的宏觀敘事，但它與其他資產或服務數字化的直接關係就沒那麼密切，更傾向於單一價值主張。

你可以將比特幣比喻為數碼黃金；以太坊則像數碼石油（推動整個區塊鏈經濟）。隨着區塊鏈經濟擴大（資產被代幣化、dApp複雜運作），「數碼石油」的需求也有望同步上升。事實上，以太坊結算的價值已遠超自身市值（因為它被用作其他資產的交換媒介）。有分析甚至建議，以太坊的價值最終可能跟流經其上的總資金或建構其中的應用經濟掛鉤——若當中包攬全球商業一大部份，規模可想而知。

這些宏觀趨勢當然仍帶有推測成份，但並非沒有可能。以太坊未來的升級（如分片技術）旨在令其足夠堅韌，應對這種級數的應用。而配套發展，如Layer-2網絡和跨鏈橋，也有望確保即使活動分支出去，以太坊依然是核心樞紐。

總結而言，密碼貨幣應用由貨幣走向更廣闊領域——尤其是資產代幣化與Web3——為以太坊帶來強大順風。如果這些趨勢加快發展，以太坊的增長（連帶ETH價格）較比特幣更有機會加速，因為比特幣增長主要受不同宏觀因素（如全球資金流入硬資產）所帶動。兩者都會表現良好，但以太坊多方位暴露於創新，有機會跑贏。

8. 比特幣收益遞減與「翻盤」數學

比特幣越做越大，有一個說法是其未來百分比回報或會因規模效應而自然下降。這種所謂「收益遞減」現象，經常以比特幣市值為例：要讓一個市值一萬億（美元）資產翻倍，需再注入一萬億新資金；但要令一個只有二千億市值的資產（例如幾年前的以太坊）翻倍，所需資金就少好多。因此，以太坊相對而言，要翻倍、三倍增長會比比特幣「容易」，單純基於基數效應。

事實上市場已經見到這現象：比特幣的主導率（在整個加密市場市值中的佔比）近年鮮有超過70%，而且每一個牛市高峰過後，主導率通常都會比上次低，因為市場總餅越做越大，有更多新項目加入。以比特幣市值較小時，一年升10倍、100倍是見過（如2013年或2011年），但當它到達數千億甚至一萬億市值時，要出現同樣百分比增長就沒那麼容易。以太坊較新亦規模細（但當然都不算小），只要能捕捉新市場，跑贏空間相對更大。

市場專家指出，若比特幣升至極高價位（如每個BTC 15萬、20萬），其總市值（數萬億美元水平）意味未來每再翻倍，都要有近乎不可想像的巨額資金流入。到某一程度，大型機構投資者可能會問：「比特幣不錯，但有沒有另一隻資產可以給我5倍、10倍升幅？」而以太坊憑流動性及知名度，經常高踞該名單。如第四節所述，一位加密基金COO就明言：「隨着市值增長，比特幣主導率自然有頂……機構最終會在比特幣以外尋找多元化投資機會。以太坊就是最大受惠者。」他預計比特幣升到15-20萬（即多萬億市值時），大戶將開始輪動去ETH尋求更高增長空間。

以下用「翻盤」的數學去說明這種關係（純作假設）：

假設比特幣升到每個$200,000，流通約1,900萬枚BTC，即市值$3.8萬億美元。
如果同時以太坊升到每個$10,000，流通量1.2億枚ETH，就是$1.2萬億美元市值——即只佔比特幣約31%。
若要以太坊市值反超$3.8萬億（即所謂「翻盤」），以1.2億枚供應計，即要升到大約每枚$31,700，相當於由$10,000再升3.17倍；而比特幣要保持領先也必須更上一層樓。
那麼，到底哪個更大機會發生？比特幣由$200,000升到$500,000（2.5倍，即多加$5萬億市值），還是以太坊由$10,000升到$30,000（3倍，多加$2.4萬億市值）？視乎你怎看，但以太坊起步細，優勢可能更突出。

部分牛派分析師甚至列出驚人比較：「假若以太坊吸納到環球近$400萬億衍生品市場的1%，市值已足以超越比特幣現水平。」即使這一幕純屬幻想，卻反映出市場普遍預期以太坊有更大增加空間。與此同時，比特幣的增長會愈來愈受制於全球有多少資金願意配置在BTC上。

這一切並不代表比特幣不會再升——很大機會仍會！但大數定律意味，其百分比增長速度或會逐漸放慢，只要以太坊繼續保持動力，有機會一步步收窄距離。有趣的是，即使比特幣在2025年底創新高，部分數據卻顯示以太坊其實靜靜提升中。例如2025年中，以太坊單月漲了40%（受惠於Pectra升級），ETH/BTC兌價由低位反彈30%。同一時間比特幣創歷史新高，但未能阻止ETH同步上升。這種同步增長——而非「二選一」——顯示加密市場能夠同時擴大，也就是有新增資金流入時，兩者都升，但較多流向以太坊，所以ETH增長更快。如Bitfinex的Kooner所說：「資金不是撤出比特幣，而是分散複利於不同第一層（L1）項目。」

---s 建議一個情境：當比特幣價格穩定，帶動更多資金流入以太坊，而非造成蠶食。

值得一提的是，過去有不少關於「翻轉（flippening）」時機的預測都錯了——市場並不是直線運行的。2021年時，有交易員如Michaël van de Poppe預測若牛市延續，以太坊最早可能於2022年中翻轉比特幣；Bloomberg的Mike McGlone亦認為若趨勢持續，以太坊市值軌跡有望在2022年底超越比特幣。但這些都未實現，部分原因是遇上熊市逆轉。這提醒我們，比特幣回報減少，未必代表以太坊就能自動超越——外部因素（例如宏觀經濟變化或加密市場崩盤）隨時可以「重設時鐘」。

不過，核心思路仍在：每個新的週期，以太坊都逐漸拉近差距。最初比特幣的市值大約是以太坊的5到10倍；以太坊一度追至比特幣的一半；即使經歷挫折，現在以太坊的市值常見於比特幣的20-40%。如果每輪牛市那個百分比都再提升，終有一日可能衝到100%甚至以上（即「翻轉」）。

數據上：

2017年高峰：以太坊市值約為比特幣的31%。
2021年高峰：以太坊市值一度升至比特幣的45-50%。
2025年（近期）：以太坊大概為比特幣市值的25-30%（因比特幣急升，以太坊正努力追上）。
未來高峰：以太坊會否一度達到比特幣市值的70-80%，然後才拉回？如是，即可能只差下一輪牛市就可完成翻轉。

不少以太坊社群成員都相信終有一日會出現翻轉。finder.com在2022年的專家調查中，超過一半受訪者認為以太坊最終會超越比特幣市值，雖然對時間預測有頗大分歧——有人指或早至2020年代中期，有人則認為要到2030或以後。Blake博士的2029年預測屬其中一種時間表。

總結來講，比特幣單靠體量難於維持高增長速率，反而給了以太坊追趕空間，只要其明智執行即可。但這某程度上不是因為以太坊自身有多優秀，而是市場算術的獨特現象。不少支持以太坊超越的人也是這麼想：「由現在開始，以太坊的回報會勝過比特幣，因為比特幣已經較貼近它的S型曲線尾段。」事實上，歷史中曾有時期這押注能獲得更佳回報（例子：2020年初買ETH而非BTC，到2021年底報酬會更高）。未來這理論是否繼續成立，是加密投資者現時的核心疑問之一。

9. 潛在風險與挑戰：為何比特幣或繼續穩坐第一

在分析完以太坊的「利多」論據之後，有需要平衡一下，提出一系列以太坊未必能跑贏或取代比特幣的反方意見，這些來自懷疑論者或保守人士。公平來看，以太坊潛力巨大，但面對不少挑戰，而比特幣仍然握有幾個不可取代的優勢：

比特幣的先行者與品牌優勢： 對全球大部分人來說，比特幣就等同於加密貨幣。它具有最強的品牌認知，故事簡單動人（數碼黃金），因此很容易被機構投資者，甚至部分國家接受。例子如薩爾瓦多採納比特幣做為法定貨幣，並無選擇以太坊。企業財庫及華爾街最初涉足加密產品時亦多數揀選BTC，把它當作對沖或準備資產。這股信心和動能形成一種網絡效應——愈多人相信它可保值抗通脹，愈多人會跟從。相比下，以太坊故事較複雜（同時具貨幣性與平台燃料功能），較難獲傳統機構青睞。若全球經濟不明朗狀態持續，比特幣作為宏觀對沖和數碼黃金的角色可能愈來愈鞏固，以太坊未必可以輕易分走需求。
監管清晰度（或缺乏）： 比特幣監管立場相對明確——普遍被認為是商品（美國SEC、CFTC均表明BTC不是證券）。以太坊地位則較含糊。雖然現時以太坊已去中心化，但它2014年ICO時期及某些特性（如staking回報）讓部分美國官員暗示某些情況下它可能屬於證券範疇。SEC主席Gary Gensler多次迴避明確回應ETH的性質，留下一個暗示他可能視ETH納入管轄範疇的空間。如果出現監管嚴打或正式劃為證券，會對機構採納有很大障礙（因為不少基金只能持有已註冊證券），資金亦可能轉至比特幣（形象更為「安全」）。所以比特幣的監管明確性，有望讓它在某些司法管轄區繼續成為大資金的首選，不論以太坊技術有多出色。（但要注意，CFTC等監管機構亦稱ETH是商品，很多國家視以太坊與比特幣一樣，風險較大主要集中在美國，而且屬於投機層面。）
以太坊正面對其他智能合約平台競爭： 以太坊與比特幣不同之處，是它有一大堆競爭對手——各種layer-1鏈主打更快、成本更低、不同共識機制。這幾年湧現的Solana、幣安智能鍊、Cardano、Polkadot、Avalanche、Algorand、Tezos等都各有吸引力，有的憑高效能或資助吸納開發者，市值一度大增。Mike Novogratz曾說：「所有層一鏈加總有機會超越比特幣，但以太坊能否壓過Solana等，結果仍未明朗。」如以太坊在Web3或開發者生態中被新對手搶走太大份額，長遠價值會受衝擊。假設真的出現「以太坊殺手」成為主導DeFi/NFT平台，ETH需求自然大減。比特幣則不同，幾乎沒出現過「比特幣殺手」——比特幣的地位極難動搖，歷來所有分叉和模仿者都未能長遠突圍。Mike Alfred等評論員甚至直言：「以太坊面臨不少基本挑戰，尤其是來自其他layer-1的競爭……沒可能升得夠高追上比特幣總市值。」換句話說，以太坊不僅要「打敗」比特幣，還要抵抗所有競爭山寨幣，絕非易事。
安全與去中心化考慮： 比特幣通常被公認為最安全及最去中心化的區塊鏈，全球礦工分布廣泛、歷史亦最悠久。以太坊轉用PoS之後，不乏持份者憂慮驗證人可能出現集中（例如大型staking pool掌控大量質押），以及staking懲罰/治理機制可能引入新攻擊面。雖然以太坊已算相當分散，有批評認為還是不及比特幣——例如現時大部分ETH質押集中於幾個平台如Lido、Coinbase等。再者，比特幣設計簡單，攻擊面更細。部分比特幣「純粹主義者」指「以太坊太複雜，變得脆弱」，例如The DAO事件，以太坊要用硬分叉去修復，反映其不可篡改及抗審查性存疑。如果將來以太坊出現大事故或被破解，或會打擊市場信心，令資金回流比特幣避險。比特幣的貨幣政策幾乎不可更改，但以太坊理論上可用社群共識調整（部份持懷疑態度的人質疑這可被濫用，目前所有變更主要是減少發行量）。總體而言，比特幣對超級保守、「只求保值」的資金吸引力強，以太坊的更多創新性部分永遠未必被完全接受。
市場流動性及機構信心： 現時整個加密市場基建大部分圍繞比特幣——不論期貨、期權市場，或作為鏈上抵押品（wrapped BTC甚至在以太坊DeFi使用）甚至交易時主要的對換幣。比特幣的市場深度及流動性仍然大於以太坊，對於大機構如欲買入數十億美元資產，BTC才是真正可承受大單成交的幣種（雖然以太坊流動性已經提升不少）。部分機構規範或偏好，也天然傾向比特幣。例如有出現比特幣專屬ETF、基金或企業策略方案（如MicroStrategy全倉BTC），專注ETH的「巨資財庫戰略」目前仍較罕見（SharpLink的ETH財庫方案則是一個新例子）。資金流動的慣性很可能讓比特幣繼續佔市場主導，以太坊只能作為補充——即使以太坊高速增長，但只要絕大多數人買ETH時同時都會買BTC，反之未必成立（不少比特幣極端主義者一分ETH都不會碰），再進一步拉開二者市值。
以太坊自身過渡及執行風險： 之前已略提過，值得再三強調：以太坊現時正處於多年的重大升級中（The Merge已完成，分片、Proto-danksharding及blobs、狀態過期等仍在路線圖內）。每一個步驟，不論技術或社群協調上，其實都有風險。
scaling (or takes too long), users and developers could gradually migrate to alternatives, sapping its growth. Also, Ethereum’s high throughput solutions (like layer-2s) introduce some dependency on those secondary networks’ security and decentralization. There’s a scenario, however unlikely, where Ethereum becomes more of a “base layer for Layer-2” only and most value accrues in those Layer-2 tokens or ecosystems rather than ETH itself. For example, if transaction fees on Ethereum L1 drop to near-zero due to most activity being on rollups, ETH might not burn as much fees or command as much direct demand (this is a debated topic – many think ETH will still accrue value as the settlement asset). But the broader point: Ethereum’s path to flipping Bitcoin isn’t guaranteed; it must navigate its own growth challenges.

以太坊（Ethereum）如果遇到擴容（scaling）問題（或者交易時間過長），用戶同開發者可能會慢慢轉投其他選擇，令以太坊生長放慢。另外，以太坊推行嘅高吞吐量方案（例如 layer-2）都會帶嚟對呢啲第二層網絡安全性同去中心化程度嘅依賴。有個雖然機會唔大但唔係無可能嘅情況——以太坊有可能變成純粹嘅「Layer-2 基礎層」，大部分價值其實係落咗去 Layer-2 嘅代幣或者生態圈，而唔係 ETH 本身。例如，如果大部份活動都搬去 rollups，而令以太坊主網（L1）嘅交易費用跌到近乎零，ETH 可能就唔會燒咁多費用，或者唔會再受到太大直接需求（呢個話題仲有爭議——有唔少人都認為 ETH 作為結算資產依然會持續累積價值）。但重點係：以太坊要「翻轉」比特幣（Bitcoin）並唔係板上釘釘——佢自己都要跨過自己嘅生長難題。

Considering all these, some analysts conclude that Ethereum and Bitcoin serve different purposes and will both remain essential rather than one destroying the other. “This is not a fight between two assets,” wrote a neutral crypto observer, “Bitcoin is the immovable foundation (digital gold), Ethereum is the adaptive force (digital infrastructure). You don’t flip the foundation; you build on top of it… ETH doesn’t need to flip BTC to win.”. This perspective suggests that even if Ethereum grows faster, Bitcoin might always hold a special role (and possibly #1 in market cap) as the base layer of trust, with Ethereum thriving as the main utility layer on top. In that scenario, Bitcoin could stand firm as #1, and Ethereum remains #2 yet still extremely valuable – much like how in traditional finance, gold remains a top asset while equities (which are more complex, yield-bearing, and tied to innovation) exist in parallel and grow the economy.

綜合以上，部分分析師認為以太坊同比特幣其實目的唔同，兩者都會係未來不可或缺，而唔係話其中一個會淘汰咗另一個。有一位中立加密貨幣觀察者咁寫：「呢唔係兩個資產嘅戰爭，比特幣係不可動搖嘅基礎（數碼黃金），以太坊就係適應力高嘅推動力（數碼基建）。你唔係推翻個地基，而係喺上面搭嘢……ETH 唔需要翻轉 BTC 先至可以嬴。」呢個角度覺得，即使以太坊增長快啲，比特幣都一樣有佢特別地位（甚至繼續係市值第一），成為信任嘅基礎層，而以太坊就係主要實用層。喺呢個情景底下，比特幣穩守一哥位置，以太坊會維持二哥，但一樣極具價值——就好似傳統金融入面，黃金永遠都係最頂級資產，股票（複雜啲、有回報、同創新綁埋一齊）都可以並存，推動經濟發展。

Ultimately, whether Ethereum can overcome these challenges will determine if it truly outperforms Bitcoin in the long run or simply coexists. It’s entirely possible that Ethereum outperforms in growth and percentage gains, but Bitcoin retains a larger absolute market cap due to its singular status. Many experts indeed lean towards a future where BTC and ETH are both dominant, but neither fully “defeats” the other. Let’s conclude with that cooperative view.

最終，以太坊能唔能夠跨過呢啲難關，就會決定佢最終係唔係真係可以長遠壓過比特幣，定只係和平共存。其實以太坊喺增長同百分比回報方面可以跑贏，但由於比特幣特殊地位，總市值都可以保持更高。其實有唔少專家都傾向相信，BTC 同 ETH 最後都會繼續坐穩霸主地位，兩者都唔會完全「擊敗」另一方。我哋就用呢個共融模式作為小總結。

Conclusion: A Dual-Ecosystem Future?

結論：雙生態圈未來？

The debate over Ethereum vs Bitcoin – which will outperform, and can Ethereum “flip” Bitcoin – remains one of the most fascinating in the crypto world. After examining recent forecasts, expert opinions, and the myriad factors at play, the answer is nuanced. Ethereum clearly has the ingredients to outperform Bitcoin in terms of innovation, percentage growth, and even perhaps challenge its market dominance: it offers unmatched utility through smart contracts, it’s rapidly evolving (with staking yields and technological upgrades), and it’s catching up in institutional adoption. Events like Ethereum’s surge past $3k, outpacing Bitcoin in a market upswing, demonstrate the kind of dynamic where ETH can shine. Many analysts – from Wall Street banks to crypto insiders – now openly predict that Ethereum could eventually become the most valuable crypto, whether by 2025, 2029, or beyond, citing the strong case we outlined in the “10 reasons” above.

有關以太坊與比特幣之爭——邊個會跑贏、以太坊可唔可以「翻轉」比特幣——一直都係加密圈內最精彩、最具爭議嘅話題之一。細閱最新預測、專家意見、各種影響因素之後，其實答案頗具層次。以太坊確實具備跑贏比特幣所需嘅元素：創新能力、百分比增長，甚至可能挑戰市場主導地位——佢靠智能合約帶嚟獨一無二嘅應用場景，演進速度超快（又有 Staking 收益、技術升級），仲開始追上機構投資者之選。好似以太坊早前衝破 $3,000、大市上升時跑贏比特幣，就反映咗 ETH 可以閃耀光芒。好多分析師——由華爾街大行到加密內行人——都公開話以太坊最終有可能成為最值錢嘅加密資產，無論係 2025、2029 或更遠，根據以上「10 大理由」都側面證明咗此說法有力。

However, it’s equally clear that Bitcoin’s position is supported by powerful advantages of its own: unrivaled simplicity, a pristine reputation as digital gold, and the inertia of being the first and most widely recognized crypto asset. Bitcoin isn’t standing still either – its adoption by institutions as a reserve asset is growing, and upcoming catalysts like a potential Bitcoin spot ETF could reinforce its dominance. As Forbes noted, in the near-term Bitcoin’s deeper liquidity and acceptance give it the edge for big inflows. And some skeptics argue that no matter what Ethereum does, Bitcoin’s unique role and Ethereum’s competitive pressures will keep BTC on top indefinitely.

同時，比特幣嘅地位亦有強大優勢支撐：冇得輸嘅簡單架構、數碼黃金嘅清晰形象，仲有作為元祖首創、最受認同加密資產嘅先行慣性。比特幣亦冇停步——越嚟越多機構採納作儲備資產，未來如果有比特幣現貨ETF，都有機會進一步鞏固其霸主地位。Forbes 都指出，短期內比特幣流動性更深、市場接受度更高，更容易吸引大量資金流入。亦有部分懷疑論者認為，無論以太坊點樣搞，比特幣嘅獨特定位同以太坊面對嘅競爭壓力，都會令 BTC 長期穩佔一哥寶座。

The most likely outcome, and one that an increasing number of experts agree on, is that both Bitcoin and Ethereum will coexist as the two pillars of the crypto economy, each excelling in its domain. They are often compared to gold vs. oil, or to the base layer vs. application layer of a new financial system. “The world doesn’t run on one layer of belief,” wrote one analyst, “Bitcoin is the foundation. Ethereum is the scaffolding. … ETH doesn’t need to flip BTC to win. It completes it.”. In this view, you don’t necessarily have to choose one over the other – and indeed many diversified crypto investors hold both (typically with Bitcoin as a core holding and Ethereum as a high-growth holding).

最有可能嘅結局（而且越嚟越多專家認同）係比特幣同以太坊會齊齊共存，成為加密經濟底下兩大支柱，各展所長。成日有人攞佢哋來比——就好似黃金同石油、新金融體系入面基礎層同應用層。「世界唔會只信一層。」有分析師話：「比特幣係地基，以太坊係棚架。……ETH 唔需要打低 BTC 先算嬴，佢係互補。」咁睇，你唔一定要揀晒一隻，其實好多多元化加密投資者都會兩隻都持有（比特幣通常係主力長倉，以太坊就係高增長倉位）。

From an investment perspective, Ethereum may offer higher growth potential (and thus could outperform in ROI), especially during bullish periods or as new use cases drive demand for ETH. Bitcoin may offer lower volatility and a distinct macro hedge quality, potentially making it more resilient and keeping its market cap high. The coming years will be telling. Key developments to watch include: Bitcoin’s trajectory around ETF approvals and post-halving, and Ethereum’s success in scaling via sharding and layer-2, plus its own institutional uptake (like a possible spot ETH ETF and more enterprises using Ethereum).

喺投資角度嚟睇，以太坊可能潛在增長更高（所以回報率更有機會跑贏），特別係牛市時期／有新用途推高 ETH 需求時。比特幣則波幅相對細，獨有「宏觀對沖」功能，抗逆能力高，市值亦較穩陣。未來幾年變化將會好關鍵：例如比特幣 ETF 審批、減半之後走勢，以及以太坊能否靠分片 sharding 同 layer-2 真正擴容，加上機構是否採用（例如可能出現 ETH 現貨 ETF、更多企業落場用以太坊）都係焦點。

In conclusion, can Ethereum outperform Bitcoin? In many respects, it already has at various times, and many signs point to Ethereum continuing to gain ground, perhaps even achieving the long-awaited “flippening” under the right conditions. But will Ethereum permanently dethrone Bitcoin? That verdict is still out – it will depend on Ethereum’s execution and adoption versus Bitcoin’s continuing role as digital gold. A balanced takeaway is that Ethereum has a real chance to outperform and even surpass Bitcoin, yet Bitcoin’s entrenched status means it won’t give up the crown easily, if ever.

總結：以太坊究竟可唔可以跑贏比特幣？某啲時候已經做到，而有唔少跡象顯示以太坊會繼續步步進逼——如果環境條件配合，「翻轉」戲碼真係未必冇機會。但講到徹底取代比特幣呢一席位，仲需要時間觀察——視乎以太坊本身表現、應用同採納，同時比特幣會唔會繼續做到數碼黃金咁堅挺。最中肯嘅結論可能係：以太坊確有可能跑贏、甚至超越比特幣，但比特幣根深蒂固嘅地位，應該唔會輕易讓位、甚至長期都可能頂住。

For crypto enthusiasts and investors, the rivalry is actually a win-win in broader terms: both assets are likely to play crucial and complementary roles in the future of finance and web technology. Bitcoin provides a solid store-of-value backbone, while Ethereum enables a flourishing open financial system and decentralized web on top. Rather than one destroying the other, it’s conceivable that the two together will continue to **drive the overall crypto market to new heights, each outperforming almost every traditional asset class over the long run, even if their race with each other remains neck-and-neck.

對於加密愛好者同投資者，其實呢場競爭最終只會係雙贏局面：兩個資產都大機會會係未來金融世界同網絡科技扮演重要而互補嘅角色。比特幣係穩陣儲值骨幹，以太坊就打通開放式金融同去中心化網絡。搵唔到一方消滅另一方嘅理由，兩者齊齊強勢推高整個加密市場，長遠表現隨時個個都會跑贏傳統資產，即使互爭冠亞都未分高下。

Ultimately, whether you’re an ETH believer, a BTC maximalist, or – as is increasingly common – a bit of both, one thing is clear: the crypto space is big enough for the strengths of both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and their interplay may define the digital economy of the 21st century. Staying informed, keeping an eye on the developments highlighted above, and understanding the unique value propositions of each will be key as we watch this unprecedented financial evolution unfold.

無論你係 ETH 信徒、BTC 唯一主義者，定係——而家越來越多人都係——兩隻檔都收，最肯定係：加密世界足夠大，養得起比特幣同以太坊雙雄，佢哋之間嘅互動甚至會影響、定義 21 世紀嘅數碼經濟。未來只要留意最新動態、關注上述重大發展，理解兩者各自獨特價值主張——就會係見證呢場前所未有金融進化嘅關鍵。