以太坊強勢回歸市場焦點，這波升勢連資深加密貨幣觀察者都感到意外。過去一週，以太坊（ETH）急升超過25%——由約3,000美元升至接近3,800美元——同期間比特幣（BTC）反而下跌數個百分點。
這明顯的分歧，讓以太坊升至七個多月以來新高，亦被視作市場動力可能出現轉折點。推動ETH突然爆升的，是多個利好因素同時湧現——包括巨鯨持續吸納、ETF資金創新高、監管明朗化及機構持續進場等。本文章將拆解支持以太坊急速上升的主要原因、搜集專家觀點和預測未來走勢，並分析這對整體加密市場或帶來的影響。
近期以太坊跑贏比特幣尤其顯眼。單計過去一週，ETH升約25%，BTC卻微跌約2%。這種「翻轉」並不常見，因為以往比特幣多數領軍市況，但今次卻輪到以太坊成為主角。有分析認為，資金正由比特幣部分轉向以太坊，把握新催化劑帶動ETH故事。部分原因則是比特幣自身壓力：例如，消息指英國政府考慮出售61,000枚於2018年詐騙案中查封的BTC（總值超過72億美元），這宗史上最大規模拋售的陰霾，即使短期未必出售，也令BTC價位承壓。反觀以太坊並沒有類似障礙，「主角時刻」機會出現。
圖表：2025年7月初，以太幣價格（ETH）由約3,000美元急升至7月21日約3,800美元，一週升幅超過25%。升勢遠甩同期比特幣，凸顯資金流向ETH。（資料來源：Finbold）
事實上，以太坊今次升浪快到令不少交易者措手不及。自7月1日起，ETH市值約增長1,500億美元，而做空ETH的空頭則被嚴重狙擊。有分析指出，今夏ETH空倉一度創新高——不過代價是劇烈回升，空頭被迫大規模平倉火上加油。Kobeissi Letter形容這是「加密史上最大規模空頭擠壓之一」，估計假如ETH突破4,000美元，將有近10億美元空單面臨強制平倉。換句話說，原本唱淡者反被迫買入，推升升勢更加急劇。
結果，以太坊現時價格升至2024年底以來高位，更已錄得九連升走勢。市場氣氛強勁，加上以下幾個ETH獨有利好因素，引發市場討論會否出現所謂「翻轉」（flippening）現象——即以太坊市值終有一日超越比特幣。須指出，截至7月中，比特幣市值尚為以太坊約2.3倍（比特幣市佔約57%，ETH約10–11%）。但ETH的崛起，確實收窄差距。無論「翻轉」會否發生，都反映投資焦點正轉移：第二大加密資產不再只活在BTC陰影之下，轉而發揮其獨有優勢和議題。
監管綠燈：「以太坊不是證券」，美國證監主席明言
近日其中一項對以太坊最關鍵的發展，就是監管明朗化，尤其在美國。現任美國證券交易委員會（SEC）主席Paul Atkins已非正式表示，ETH不被視為證券。在CNBC訪問中，Atkins稱SEC視ETH與BTC看齊——都被歸類為商品，而非證券，改寫了上一任SEC領導下對ETH定性的模糊態度。前主席Gensler時代，ETH「會否屬於證券」始終懸而未決，令人擔憂一旦被論證為證券，或要遵守繁複規管。新主席則透露，SEC「非正式將ETH與BTC標籤作商品」。
這點相當關鍵。ETH若非證券，意味美國監管機構無意將其視作股票或債券般進行限制，持有或交易毋須涉獵繁瑣合規要求，這大大減輕了不少機構投資者心中的法律風險。Atkins強調，證券法不適用於ETH——即使這立場多透過公開講話而非正式條例公布。實際上，ETH現在與BTC一樣「獲得監管綠燈」，同被監管當作商品看待。事實上，美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）早就這樣定義，今次SEC立場與之一致，可謂意義重大。
對機構而言，這是重大保障。無論上市公司、銀行或基金，都可更安心投資或應用ETH，毋須擔心SEC追究「未註冊證券」問題。Atkins甚至公開指出，機構愈來愈有興趣涉足以太坊，並鼓勵企業自行決定是否以ETH作儲備資產。他又強調，以太坊是其他數碼貨幣及去中心化金融（DeFi）生態的關鍵組件。企業有權自己決定將ETH納入庫房資產，形同正式「祝福」更多公司將ETH納庫房。
這種明朗變化馬上帶來現實效應。Atkins講話後數週，已有多間企業明確將資本戰略轉向ETH。例如加密礦企Bit Digital宣布拋售280枚比特幣並集資1.72億美元，全面把庫存由BTC轉成ETH。截至7月初，Bit Digital 持有ETH由3月約24,400枚倍增至超過100,600枚。至7月中，SharpLink Gaming亦公開現持有高達280,706枚ETH（約8.67億美元），「甚至多過Ethereum Foundation」，成為全球最大機構級持幣者之一。值得一提，SharpLink將其持有ETH總數99.7%進行質押，用於賺取收益，自6月初起已累積獎勵超過415枚ETH。公司CEO把此策略形容為「分布式網絡上的集體資本主義」，即是對以太坊長遠價值和應用的信心表現。
上述例子所反映，其實是公司逐漸有信心視以太坊為儲備資產，不再只偏好BTC。CoinCentral亦指「上市公司正積極調整資金儲備策略，逐步偏向ETH多於BTC」。SEC主席Atkins明確支持這些以市場決定為主的行動，認為企業增持ETH是「令人鼓舞」的新趨勢，預計強勁機構需求將刺激行業創新。簡單來說，以太坊頭上的監管陰霾正在消退，大筆資金陸續流入ETH市場，阻力明顯減少。
除了ETH定性變得清晰，美國整體監管環境亦轉趨親加密政策，有利市場氣氛。例如穩定幣——如USDT或USDC，常在以太坊網絡上發行。7月17日，美國眾議院通過《GENIUS法案》（全名：國家穩定幣創新引導及確立法案），以規管穩定幣發行商。該法案於參眾兩院分別以68–30及308–122的大比數通過，現正待特朗普總統簽署，預料即將生效。這是美國首部聯邦加密法律，確認穩定幣屬金融系統一部分，但規限發行人必須全數以流動資產保障代幣並按月公布儲備報表。SEC主席Atkins形容這條穩定幣法案是「認可印章」，可望推動以美元為本的代幣即時結算，減低金融市場風險及成本。Atkins指這結構性監管為市場帶來可靠規則，顯示監管層已由模糊混亂走向有結構規管。以太坊主導穩定幣生態（全行業穩定幣價值逾六成在ETH鏈上），明確規管是利好政府明顯無意打壓相關應用，而是鼓勵負責任地整合。
同一時間，美國眾議院亦通過了《加密資產市場明確性法案》以劃分SEC與CFTC的監管範疇，以及一條針對數字美元的反央行數字貨幣法案（反對聯邦數字美元）。兩者均獲總統特朗普及親加密議員聯合支持，標誌著美國加密政策急速逆轉。只一兩年前，整個行業還面對著敵視監管及法律真空......
legislative progress. Now, we have bipartisan support for rational crypto rules, an administration publicly supportive of digital assets, and even the prospect of 401(k) retirement plans including crypto investments on the horizon.
立法進展。現時，美國兩黨已支持更合理的加密貨幣規則，政府亦公開支持數碼資產，甚至不久的將來401(k)退休計劃亦有機會納入加密投資。
In fact, President Trump is reportedly preparing an executive order to open up $9 trillion in U.S. 401(k) and IRA retirement accounts to a broader range of alternative assets – explicitly including cryptocurrencies. According to sources cited by the Financial Times, this order could be signed as early as this week. It would direct regulators to clear any roadblocks preventing retirement plan providers from offering crypto options. Such a change could be monumental: the 401(k) market held $8.9 trillion in assets as of late 2024. Even a small allocation of that into crypto (say 1%–5%) would equate to hundreds of billions of dollars in new demand. The U.S. Labor Department has already removed prior guidance that discouraged crypto in 401(k)s, and major firms like Fidelity (with $5.9 trillion AUM) have introduced crypto-inclusive retirement accounts. In short, crypto – including Ethereum – is becoming an accepted asset class for long-term investment. Ethereum being deemed not a security plays a role here too, as retirement plan fiduciaries are more likely to consider ETH if regulators view it as a commodity asset like gold or Bitcoin, rather than a security akin to a risky penny stock.
事實上，有消息指特朗普總統正準備簽署行政命令，擬開放$9萬億美元美國401(k)及IRA退休帳戶去接觸更廣泛另類資產——明確包括加密貨幣。根據《金融時報》消息，此命令最早可能本周簽署，並會指示監管機構消除退休計劃提供者推動加密選項的阻礙。這項改變影響深遠：截至2024年底，401(k)市場資產規模達$8.9萬億美元，即使僅得1%–5%配額注入加密貨幣，亦意味數千億美元新增需求。美國勞工部亦已刪除早前阻礙401(k)涉足加密的指引，而如富達（資產管理規模$5.9萬億美元）等大型公司已推出包含加密的退休帳戶。總括而言，加密貨幣——包括以太坊，正成為長線投資獲認可的資產類別。同時，以太坊被界定為非證券都有幫助——因為當監管機構視ETH為商品資產（如黃金或比特幣），而非高風險細價股，退休計劃受託人更傾向納入ETH。
All these regulatory signals – Ethereum’s commodity status, a legal framework for stablecoins, supportive legislation and executive actions – create a much more favorable climate for Ethereum than existed a year ago. The removal of uncertainty has enabled pent-up institutional interest to finally express itself in the market. It’s no coincidence that Ethereum funds have seen record inflows (more on that next) and that whales are confidently accumulating ETH by the hundreds of thousands of units now that the rules of the road are clearer. As U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson quipped, President Trump’s active support ensured these crypto measures were passed, delivering the industry its biggest policy wins ever. For Ethereum, those wins translate into real dollars flowing into the asset.
所有這些監管訊號——例如以太坊被確認為商品、穩定幣有清晰法律框架、有利的立法與行政行動——都令以太坊所處的大環境比一年前大大改善。不確定性消除後，機構資金的累積需求終於可以釋放到市場。這亦解釋了為何以太坊基金近期錄得破紀錄資金流入（之後會詳細說明），且大戶正大手囤積ETH，皆因政策規則變得明確。正如美國眾議院議長Mike Johnson所說，特朗普總統積極支持下，加密措施得以通過，為業界帶來史上最大政策勝利。對以太坊而言，這些勝利直接帶嚟真金白銀流入該資產。
Record ETF Inflows: Institutions Pile In as Ethereum ETF Demand Booms
破紀錄ETF資金流入：機構大舉入場，推高以太坊ETF需求
Perhaps the single most powerful driver of Ethereum’s price jump has been the massive inflows into Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other investment products. In July, Ethereum funds have been pulling in capital at unprecedented rates, signaling intense institutional demand. In fact, ETH investment vehicles just notched their largest weekly inflow ever – about $2.12 billion in one week, nearly doubling the previous record. By comparison, Bitcoin funds saw relatively modest inflows or even outflows during the same period, indicating that Ethereum has become the “hot ticket” for investors right now.
推動以太坊大升浪的最大動力，可能正係大量資金流入以太坊ETF及其他投資工具。7月期間，以太坊相關基金以史無前例的速度吸納資金，顯示機構需求相當強烈。事實上，ETH投資工具剛剛錄得史上最大單週資金流入——一星期就達$21.2億美元，幾乎是先前紀錄的兩倍。相比之下，比特幣基金同期僅錄得較溫和資金流入，甚至有資金淨流出，顯示眼下以太坊才是投資人的「熱門門票」。
Consider these eye-popping figures: On a single day, July 18, U.S.-listed spot Ether ETFs collectively absorbed $727 million of fresh capital. Over the most recent month, ETH funds have attracted over $3.2 billion. And for the first time, Ethereum ETFs’ daily inflow (roughly $402 million on July 18) actually surpassed that of Bitcoin ETFs. On that day, Ethereum products saw $402.5M net inflows vs. $363M for Bitcoin – a stark reversal of the typical pattern where BTC leads. According to Finbold/TrendSpider data, BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF (ticker ETHA) was the 800-pound gorilla, accounting for 98% of those ETH inflows on July 18. With BlackRock’s clout and distribution, its Ether fund has quickly become the dominant vehicle. Total assets in Ethereum ETFs have now swelled to about $18.4 billion, a tremendous scale considering U.S. spot ETH ETFs have existed only for a relatively short time (they were launched after the approval of spot crypto ETFs following a change in administration policy earlier in 2025).
以下數字極為吸睛：單單7月18日，於美國上市的現貨以太坊ETF總共吸納了$7.27億美元新資金。最近一個月，ETH基金合共吸入超過$32億美元。而首次，7月18日以太坊ETF單日流入（約$4.02億美元）比比特幣ETF還要多；當天ETH產品有$4.025億美元淨流入，而比特幣只有$3.63億——徹底顛覆以往BTC領先的局面。根據Finbold/TrendSpider資料，BlackRock（貝萊德）旗下以太坊ETF（代號ETHA）成為最大「巨鱷」，單日囊括當中98%資金流入。有BlackRock這種巨企背書和渠道，Ether基金很快變成主流選擇。目前以太坊ETF總資產規模已達約$184億美元，考慮到美國現貨ETH ETF面世時間其實不長（是因行政政策轉向後於2025年才獲批），這個規模極為驚人。
Why are Ethereum ETFs suddenly so popular? One major reason is the anticipation of staking yield integration. In a cutting-edge development, Nasdaq filed a proposal with the SEC to allow BlackRock’s ETH ETF to participate in Ethereum staking. This comes after the SEC earlier clarified that proof-of-stake validation services (i.e., staking rewards) are considered a form of income, not an issuance of new securities – clearing a regulatory path to include staking within an ETF structure. If approved, BlackRock’s fund (the largest ETH ETF) would be able to stake a portion of its ETH holdings with trusted blockchain validators and pass through the yield to ETF investors. This would effectively turn the ETF into a yield-generating asset, offering perhaps 3–4% annual reward in additional Ether on top of price appreciation. For institutional investors and allocators, that’s extremely attractive – it’s like holding a dividend-paying stock rather than a zero-yield asset.
為何以太坊ETF突然變得那麼受歡迎？其中一大原因是市場預期會整合「質押收益」（staking yield）。近期重要發展是，納斯達克已向SEC提交申請，容許BlackRock的ETH ETF參與以太坊質押。事緣SEC早前明確表明，proof-of-stake「驗證服務」（即質押獎勵）屬於一種收益，而非發行新證券——從而為ETF結構納入staking打開監管通道。如申請獲批，BlackRock（作為最大ETH ETF）即可將部分ETH持倉交由信譽良好的區塊鏈驗證者質押，並將收益分派給ETF持有人。這等同將ETF變成一種能產生收益的資產，每年或能為投資者帶來3–4%的額外以太坊回報，並可享受價格升值。對機構投資者和資產分配人而言，這非常吸引——就像持有一隻派息股票，而不是一項零息資產。
The possibility of Ethereum ETFs offering staking yield has supercharged demand, since it amplifies Ethereum’s investment case relative to Bitcoin. Ethereum’s network now runs on proof-of-stake, meaning ETH holders can lock up their coins to secure the network and earn rewards (similar to interest). Currently about 29–30% of all ETH is staked on the Ethereum blockchain, earning yields typically ranging from ~3% to 5% APY. Up to now, that yield was mostly accessible to crypto-native participants (running validator nodes or using staking services). But an ETF that stakes brings this feature to mainstream portfolios in a regulated wrapper. BlackRock’s ETHA is already the world’s largest Ethereum fund, holding roughly 2% of all ETH supply (about 48.9% of the ETH held by ETFs globally), and if it starts staking, that could tighten ETH’s tradable supply and draw in yield-hungry investors simultaneously.
Ethereum ETF有望提供staking收益，大大推高了需求，因為這令以太坊的投資吸引力遠超比特幣。以太坊網絡現在基於Proof-of-Stake（權益證明）運作，意即ETH持有人可以鎖定其代幣作為網絡安全換取收益（有如利息）。目前大約29–30% ETH已於以太坊主鏈質押，回報率一般約為3–5%年息。過去此收益多數只有資深加密用戶（自行運行驗證節點或使用質押服務）能接觸。但帶有質押功能的ETF，能以受監管包裝將此功能帶到主流投資組合。BlackRock的ETHA已經是全球最大以太坊基金，持有全球ETF約48.9%（即全流通ETH的2%），一旦參與質押，會進一步緊縮ETH可流通供應，同時吸引追求收益的投資者。
It’s worth noting that other asset managers like Franklin Templeton and Grayscale also filed to add staking features to their Ether funds, though those applications were on hold pending SEC guidance. Now, with the SEC’s informal blessing of staking as an income source, the floodgates are opening. Industry analysts expect that by 2025, most Ethereum-based investment products will incorporate staking in some form, given how critical it is to the asset’s value proposition. This effectively makes Ethereum “a productive asset similar to a bond or dividend stock,” as opposed to Bitcoin which has no native yield. The prospect of earning yield plus capturing price upside could be a key reason why “institutions [are] showing a preference for Ethereum over Bitcoin” lately. One Phemex Research summary put it succinctly: institutions are recognizing Ethereum’s potential for “staking and payments” in addition to being a store of value.
值得一提的是，富蘭克林鄧普頓（Franklin Templeton）和Grayscale等其他資產管理公司，同樣申請在其以太基金加入staking功能，惟有關申請一直等候SEC明確指引。現在SEC已非正式同意staking屬收入，資金大門已徐徐打開。業內分析認為，到2025年，大部分以太坊投資產品都會某程度引入staking功能，因其對資產價值主張舉足輕重。這令以太坊等同「可產生收益的資產，如債券或派息股」，而比特幣本身沒本地化收益。能賺收益又能炒升值，就是近來「機構偏好以太坊多過比特幣」的關鍵原因。Phemex Research摘要亦提及：機構投資者認為以太坊除了是價值儲存工具，亦有質押和支付潛力。
The impact on price from these flows is direct. When billions pour into ETH funds in a short time, the funds must purchase Ether on the open market to back the shares. For example, that $2.12B weekly inflow likely translated into roughly 550,000–600,000 ETH of buying (assuming price in mid-$3,000s) by the funds within days. It’s no wonder that during this surge, Coinbase’s Ethereum reserves reportedly ran low – a sign that supply on exchanges was getting absorbed. Glassnode on-chain data confirms a sharp drop in exchange-held ETH (down ~15% over 30 days by mid-June) as accumulation picked up. In other words, coins are moving off exchanges into long-term holdings like ETFs or cold storage, reducing selling pressure. This creates a supply squeeze that pushes the price up further.
這些資金流動對價格的影響是即時且明顯的。短時間內數十億美元流入ETH基金，基金必須於公開市場買入以太坊支持其對應份額。例如，該$21.2億美元單週流入在幾天內大約等同買入55萬到60萬枚ETH（以每枚約$3,000中位價計）。正因如此，在這波熱潮期間，有消息指Coinbase以太坊庫存見底——說明交易所供應已被掃貨。鏈上數據公司Glassnode亦證實，至6月中，交易所持有ETH的總量30日內大跌約15%，反映大舉吸納。換句話說，ETH正從交易所轉移到ETF或冷錢包這類長線儲存，減低拋壓。這引發供應壓縮，進一步推高價格。
Zooming out, the frenzy for Ethereum ETFs can be seen as part of a larger institutional embrace of crypto investment products. It wasn’t long ago that U.S. regulators refused to approve any spot crypto ETF. Now not only do we have them, but Wall Street giants (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.) are actively promoting them. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin and Ether funds have led inflows; Grayscale (the largest crypto asset manager) even filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO to possibly convert its trusts to ETFs and expand its offerings. Grayscale’s Ethereum vehicles are already the second- and third-largest by AUM after BlackRock’s, and combined Grayscale manages 1.4% of all ETH (worth $5.15 billion) alongside 1.15% of all BTC. The firm’s move toward an IPO suggests it expects the U.S. market for spot crypto ETFs to mature and grow further – again a bullish sign for sustained institutional inflows into assets like Ethereum.
宏觀來看，以太坊ETF熱潮正是機構全面接納加密投資產品潮流一部份。其實不久以前，美國監管機構仍拒批任何現貨加密ETF。但現時不單已經有ETF，華爾街巨頭（如BlackRock貝萊德、Fidelity富達等）更積極推廣。BlackRock的iShares比特幣及以太坊基金領先市場資金流向；而最大加密資產管理公司Grayscale則秘密遞交美國IPO申請，希望將旗下信託轉換成ETF兼拓展產品線。Grayscale以太坊系列產規亦僅次於BlackRock，兩者合共管理著全體ETH的1.4%（約$51.5億美元）以及比特幣的1.15%。該公司計劃上市，反映其看好美國現貨crypto ETF市場將會進一步成熟、擴大——對於以太坊等資產持續吸納機構資金，無疑屬利好消息。
Another interesting aspect is who is doing the buying. Beyond broad ETF flows, we have specific examples of major traditional institutions allocating to ETH. Perhaps most notable: BlackRock itself reportedly purchased ~27,158 ETH (around $100 million worth) on July 21. This was gleaned from on-chain data and likely represents either the firm’s asset management arm positioning ahead of expected demand or filling ETF creation orders. In either case, it underscores that the world’s largest asset manager is directly acquiring Ethereum – something that would have been hard to imagine a couple years back. And BlackRock is not alone. Other big players like Fidelity, Invesco, and WisdomTree have launched or applied for Ether funds as well, meaning traditional finance is broadly onboarding to ETH exposure.
另一個亮點係，到底哪些人在買？除了整體ETF流向，亦有具體例子顯示大型傳統金融機構入手ETH。例如最吸引眼球的：據稱BlackRock貝萊德7月21日單日斥資買入約27,158枚ETH（約$1億美元）。這些資料來自鏈上數據，極可能代表貝萊德資產管理部門為預期需求先行布局，或是履行ETF創造單位的職責。無論如何，說明全球最大資產管理公司正親自買入以太坊——這在數年前幾乎不可想像。事實上，BlackRock並非唯一，其他如Fidelity、Invesco、WisdomTree等大型機構也推出或申請了以太基金，說明傳統金融正整體趨向配置ETH。
The knock-on effect of these inflows is reflected in price forecasts from analysts. Many now see the $4,000 level as an imminent milestone for Ethereum – essentially a psychological barrier that could be crossed any day if momentum continues. More ambitiously, some predict that Ethereum could target new all-time highs by later in 2025 if institutional adoption keeps accelerating. For instance, Fundstrat’s Head of Research, Tom Lee, cites a valuation model that suggests ETH could reach $10,000–$15,000 by the end of 2025 under favorable conditions. Lee notes that Ethereum is “Wall Street’s preferred choice for blockchain infrastructure,” given its dominance in areas like tokenization and
這些巨額資金流的連鎖效應亦反映在分析師的價格預測上。現時多數人認為$4,000美元大關近在咫尺——只要動力持續，隨時可能突破這心理障礙。更進取的預測，假如機構入場持續加速，2025年底以太坊甚至有望再創新高。例如Fundstrat研究部主管Tom Lee引用某估值模型，認為在有利條件下ETH年底上望$10,000至$15,000。Lee指，以太坊已成為「華爾街首選的區塊鏈基礎設施資產」，在token化等領域地位無可動搖。Here is your translation into zh-Hant-HK, with markdown links skipped as requested.
stablecoins，因此可能像科技平台一樣獲得高估值倍數。短期內，他團隊的技術策略師 Mark Newton 預期 ETH 會在七月底前觸及 $4,000（這個目標現時其實只差幾個百分點）。
更具體一點：以太幣（Ethereum）近期的升浪，主要是由大資金開始認同其不斷增長的角色並進場所推動。ETF 這個渠道只不過令這批大資金流入更安全、更方便。隨着監管機構對這類產品態度轉趨友善——甚至考慮推出有孳息的版本——以太幣有望繼續成為機構投資者的寵兒。踏入2025年下半年，以太坊的表現已不再像是投機性的邊緣資產，而是愈來愈貼近主流投資，「未來可期」，正如證監會 Atkins 所講。
鯨魚累積：大戶悄悄吞入超過 $26億美元 ETH
要解讀以太坊的升幅，必須要看看鯨魚——即那些持倉極大的個人和機構——他們的策略性買入，其實為這次升勢提供了強大後盾。鏈上數據顯示，自7月1日以來，大約有23個鯨魚及機構地址合共累積了681,103 枚 ETH，價值約 $25.7 億美元。這幾星期之內出現咁大規模的累積，已經是數年來最積極的鯨魚掃貨潮。這顯示了主力玩家對以太坊後市的強烈信心。
部份大手買入已經公開（例如早前提過的企業金庫動作），另一些則只能根據區塊鏈交易觀察到。以下是鯨魚動作的一些重點：
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SharpLink Gaming——現時持有超過280,000枚ETH——在一星期內（7月7至13日）即加倉約74,656枚ETH，平均價 $2,852。SharpLink 現時接近 $8.7 億美元（大部份已質押）的位置，成為所知最大規模的企業級Ether持有者。值得留意的是，SharpLink這次獨力吸納，佔整體681,000枚ETH中的10%以上。
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Bit Digital——如前所述——已經清倉比特幣全倉轉持 ETH，到七月初時持倉超過100,000枚ETH。他們為此動用了現金，把比特幣沽出換成以太幣，反映出他們認為Ether的長遠前景（也許由於實用性和產生收益能力）更適合為資產負債表作支撐。
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Bitmine Immersion Technologies——一家聚焦ESG的挖礦公司，由 Fundstrat 的知名分析師 Tom Lee 主持——據報亦購入了大量ETH（Economic Times指如Bitmine Immersion和SharpLink等上市公司，僅7月就合共把超過 $10 億美元ETH入帳）。Bitmine 早已宣布會因戰略原因大手購入ETH，而Lee本身對ETH價值極度看好（目標$15,000）也應該影響了這次決定。
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Ether Machine——根據Coingape報道，一間新成立公司正準備上市並以 $16億美元ETH作為資本。雖然細節未明，但暗示這個載體是為了大規模長期持有或投資ETH而設（有點像 MicroStrategy 純粹買BTC）。$16億即現價約等於 420,000–450,000 ETH，如果最終成功，將對市場供應構成巨大壓力。
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其他無名鯨魚——鏈上分析指發現某個鯨魚錢包（0x5A8E...）一次過買入13,462枚ETH（約$5,000萬），平均價 $3,715。另有報道指「大鯨魚」掃貨令ETH突破$3,800。情緒分析師（例如Ali Martinez）追蹤的鯨魚7月頭兩週就共吸納了超過500,000枚ETH。這類累積通常非常低調——要麼OTC要麼分批安靜吸納——所以買入期間價格未必即時抽升。但現時累積期大致已完成，效果開始反映在流動性收緊上。
值得留意的是，鯨魚如何處理他們的以太幣？相當大部分都拿去質押，例如SharpLink持倉99.7%都質押了，其他地址亦大量搬到質押合約。這意味鯨魚是打算長揸的，不是博一轉就沽。他們想賺取收益，乃至參與網絡治理。這與「以太坊演變成收益資產+數碼債券」的故事線相呼應。鯨魚把ETH鎖倉質押，既減少流通供應，也展現對以太坊未來安全與價值的信念。
另一個鯨魚信心強的特徵是進行槓桿操作：期貨市場數據顯示ETH未平倉合約連續按月增約13%，總名義規模達$7860億（這數字可能過高——或某種累積交易額指標——但未平倉增加都代表資金看好ETH續升）。市場更傳出大戶如James Wynn持有$1,200萬、25倍槓桿ETH長倉。鯨魚大舉開長倉表示對後市樂觀（雖然止蝕爆倉亦會增波幅）。而且，即使ETH臨近$4,000，鯨魚都未有火速沽貨——反而趁微跌加注，顯示他們覺得現時只是牛市起步，不是適合獲利的高位。
從情緒角度講，大鯨魚密密吸貨往往預示重大事件或變盤將至。有分析就話：「低調吸貨往往代表有大事醞釀。」這可能是ETF獲批質押版本的憧憬，或者對以太坊網絡升級抱有信心，又或者是純粹基於大環境押注以太坊將在全球金融系統角色持續增大。過去，每逢牛市爆升前，鯨魚都會提前數月部署；這次亦見相似模式：機構／鯨魚掃貨時，散戶反而未有跟風，熱情較冷靜，不少小投資者仍然猶豫觀望（甚至有人稱今次是「最不受歡迎的升浪」）。過往經驗顯示，這種由「聰明錢」帶動、散戶未參與的懷疑升市，往往可以延續和加速，直到大眾追入為止。
也要留意，比特幣鯨魚同時都很活躍，不過氣氛有點不同。例如擁有超過百年歷史的華爾街公司 Cantor Fitzgerald 據報正透過新載體收購多達30,000枚BTC（約$36億），與 Tether 及 SoftBank 等夥伴一起壯大加密資產規模（據稱 Cantor 相關加密業務今年資產或達 $100 億）。眾所周知的 MicoStrategy 亦再將持倉推高到超過 600,000 枚BTC（價值超過 $720 億美元）。大型銀行如JP Morgan及花旗，CEO曾公開反對加密，現時亦考慮推出自家穩定幣或存款代幣，他們承認「不能置身事外」——金融科技公司已經不斷推進。如果這些舉動本身是以比特幣或穩定幣為主軸，其實都反映一個共同主題：有深厚資本背景的主力玩家，正在積極鞏固他們在整個加密市場的地位。而以太坊之所以分到相當大一杯羹，除了因為智能合約、DeFi等功能，再加上現時監管逐步認可。
總括而言，今次以太幣的鯨魚及機構級累積構成了今輪升浪的基礎，明顯不同於以往散戶炒作炒起的瘋狂階段。長線持有者手上控制愈多供應，賣壓反而減小——搶手貨就唔會亂拋出街應付微波新聞或短線波動。7月21日的鏈上數據顯示以太坊市值已達 $454 億美元，24小時成交量 $46 億，換言之每日流通／頻繁交易的貨量相對偏少。鯨魚將ETH由交易所搬去質押或冷錢包，即是話當有任何ETF資金流入或者散戶突然湧入想買貨，對價格帶來的推動會更強——就因為流通供應縮緊，這正正是標準的「供應衝擊升浪」前奏。Blockchain.news 早前就指出，Merge升級後的以太坊生態，變相引入了一種稀缺效應：自2022年9月以來，以太坊總供應實際上因為銷毀機制超過新發行，已經減少超過 330,000 枚ETH。2025年5月 Pectra 升級令以太坊銷毀率倍增，全年淨通脹降至約 -0.5%，ETH正式成為淨通縮資產。長期持有的大戶們（鯨魚）好清楚，手抱ETH其實係等於持有一份會越來越罕有的資產，難怪佢哋咁緊張仲要趁低吸納。
以太坊基本面進化：網絡升級、質押、實用性
除了短線市場因素，今次以太坊升市其實由網絡本身強勁升級支撐。與2017年ICO瘋潮或2021年迷因幣浪潮有所不同，今次ETH價升正好配合多項技術、經濟及使用量的實質提升。這些基本面改變，令大小投資者都更加有信心以太坊可以穩定增值，甚至長升長有。
通縮供應 &「Ultrasound」貨幣：以太坊在The Merge（2022九月由工作量證明轉為權益證明）後，加上2025年5月Pectra升級，貨幣政策已變成隨着網絡用量高時減少總供應。每次交易皆會燒掉小量ETH作為費用（EIP-1559），而且Merge之後新ETH（獎勵驗證者）的發行大大降低。結果就是ETH已經成為淨通縮資產——截至2025年三月，Merge後整體ETH供應其實已減少約332,000枚。Pectra升級再進一步削減新供應、且銷毀速度加快，令每年通脹率進一步壓至-0.5%（即淨負值）。換句話說，以太坊現...
如欲補完尾段或有其他段落請告知！now arguably scarcer than Bitcoin in terms of supply trajectory (Bitcoin’s supply still grows ~1.7% per year until the next halving). Traders have coined the term “ultrasound money” to describe ETH’s deflationary status – a playful nod to it potentially being even sounder than Bitcoin’s fixed supply, because ETH supply can tighten with usage.
現時以供應走勢來講，ETH可以話比比特幣更加罕有（比特幣供應每年仍然增長大約1.7%，直到下一次減半）。交易員創咗個新詞叫做「ultrasound money」嚟形容ETH嘅通縮特性——即係話如果用得多，ETH供應仲可以進一步收縮，變得比比特幣固定供應仲「健全」。
For investors, this is a big deal. It implies that holding ETH over the long term might not suffer dilution, and could even gain from supply reduction if demand holds steady or rises. When combined with staking (which further locks up supply), Ethereum starts to look like a scarcity asset with yield – almost akin to a digital real estate that pays rent. It’s a unique value proposition in the crypto space and is likely one reason that corporations and funds are comfortable taking large positions: they see Ethereum’s tokenomics trending in a favorable direction. We saw immediate market enthusiasm for Pectra’s changes, with ETH jumping 8% the day of the upgrade and outpacing BTC. Investors noted that if demand for block space on Ethereum grows (due to more activity in DeFi, NFTs, etc.), the burn will increase, potentially accelerating the deflation. In essence, usage of the network directly benefits holders via burned fees – aligning user growth with investor interests.
對投資者嚟講，呢樣嘢十分重要。即係話長線持有ETH可能唔會被稀釋，甚至如果需求穩定或提升，供應減少仲可以帶嚟受惠。如果加上Staking（將供應再鎖定多啲），Ethereum就變成一種有產生利息但數量有限嘅資產——好似數碼版嘅「收租」磚頭咁。呢種獨特嘅價值主張喺加密世界好罕有，都係點解有咁多公司同基金肯大手入貨嘅原因：佢哋見到Ethereum嘅代幣經濟學向好。Pectra升級當日，市場即刻好興奮，ETH升咗8%，升幅跑贏BTC。投資者都提到，如果以太坊區塊空間需求提升（因為DeFi、NFT等活動多咗），燒毀量會增加，令通縮加快。換句話講，網絡使用量直接經由燒毀費用惠及持有人——即用戶增長同投資者利益拉齊咗。
Booming Staking and Network Security: Ethereum’s transition to Proof-of-Stake has been extremely successful so far. As of mid-2025, over 1.1 million validators are running Ethereum’s consensus (up from ~890k at end of 2024). More than 35 million ETH is staked, which is about 29–30% of the total circulating supply (up from ~25% earlier in the year). This broad participation secures the network while also reducing circulating supply, as staked ETH is typically locked for the medium term. The average staking yield is around 3.5–4% APY in ETH, which has stabilized after the early post-Merge fluctuations. Importantly, nearly all major liquid staking providers (Lido, Rocket Pool, etc.) are thriving, giving even small holders access to staking rewards, and solo staking (individuals running their own node) now accounts for ~11% of staked ETH – indicating decentralization of the validator set is improving.
Staking爆發同網絡安全性： Ethereum轉型PoS至今非常成功。去到2025年中，超過110萬個驗證者參與Ethereum共識（2024年底係大約89萬個）。超過3,500萬ETH已經被Staking，大約佔總流通供應29–30%（年初只有25%左右）。呢種廣泛參與一方面保護咗網絡，另一方面又減少流通供應，因為Staking嘅ETH通常都會鎖定中期。平均質押年利率大約有3.5–4%（ETH本位），Merge初期嗰啲大幅波動已經平穩咗。值得留意係，幾乎所有大型流動質押平台（如Lido、Rocket Pool等）都做得好好，令到細持碼者都有份攞質押獎勵，單人獨立質押（自己開節點）都佔咗11%左右，反映驗證人分散化做得更好。
For price dynamics, staking creates a kind of floor on sell pressure: many ETH holders choose to stake and earn yield rather than keep coins on exchanges to trade. After the Shanghai upgrade (Apr 2024) enabled withdrawals of staked ETH, there was some fear of an unlock wave crashing price, but the opposite occurred – more ETH has flowed into staking since Shanghai (over 9.3M ETH was withdrawn by some, but new deposits outpaced that as many others joined staking). The participation rate consistently near 99.5% among validators means almost all stakers stay online – a sign of robust engagement. This success of staking is part of why Wall Street sees Ethereum as a new kind of yield asset. Even Bloomberg has drawn parallels between Ethereum’s staking-based cash flows and equities or bonds, noting that one can derive implied valuation models for ETH using metrics like P/E ratios of the fees or yields (Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell did something similar with an EBITDA-like model, which helped Tom Lee justify the $15k target).
至於價格走勢，Staking其實起咗個托：好多ETH持有者願意鎖定拿息，不放上交易所賣。上海升級（2024年4月）開咗質押解鎖，但市場擔心解鎖會壓垮股價依然相反——更多ETH之後流入咗質押（有930萬ETH被提款，但新注入質押嘅多過提走的）。驗證者參與率持續高達99.5%，幾乎全部Staker都keep住在線——顯示參與度超高。Staking嘅成功都令華爾街睇Ethereum係新型「派息資產」，Bloomberg甚至攞Ethereum質押現金流同股票/債券比，話可以根據費用或收益率推估ETH估值（Fundstrat嘅Sean Farrell用咗啲近似EBITDA嘅方法，Tom Lee都係用呢個去justify $15k目標）。
Layer-2 Scaling and Network Usage: Another fundamental driver is that Ethereum’s utility is expanding thanks to layer-2 networks and real-world adoption. While Ethereum mainnet is often congested and has pricy fees, scaling solutions like Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync, and others have taken off, handling an increasing share of transactions. As of Q1 2025, Layer-2 solutions process over 60% of all Ethereum transactions, significantly alleviating L1 load. This means more users can utilize Ethereum’s ecosystem (DeFi, NFTs, gaming) at lower cost, which ultimately funnels value to ETH (since L2s settle on Ethereum and often use ETH for fees or bridging). In recent weeks, activity on L2s has surged in tandem with the bull market – e.g., Arbitrum and Optimism are seeing record usage. The Economic Times noted that “Ethereum’s rise is mirrored by increased engagement across its Layer 2 stack” and that as capital flows into ETH, it naturally spreads into the broader ecosystem – powering DeFi pools, dApps, etc.. This synergy means Ethereum isn’t rallying in a vacuum; it’s rallying alongside tangible growth in network utilization.
Layer-2擴容同網絡使用量： 另一個關鍵推動力係Ethereum實用性因為Layer-2方案同現實應用大大提升。主網常常塞車、手續費勁貴，但有Arbitrum、Optimism、zkSync等Layer-2爆發，處理愈來愈多交易。去到2025年第一季，Layer-2已經處理超過60%以太坊全部交易，大大減壓主網，即係更多用戶可以平啲用DeFi、NFT、Game等，最尾啲價值始終會回流返ETH（因為Layer-2最後都要落Ethereum埋單，同用ETH當手續費或過橋）。近排牛市一嚟，Layer-2交易量爆升——Arbitrum/Optimism都破曬紀錄。《經濟時報》都話「Ethereum升勢同時帶起整個Layer-2生態都活躍咗」，錢流入ETH會自然擴展到全生態，推高DeFi池、dApps等等。即係講，Ethereum唔係無源之水式升，係網絡利用率同步增長帶上。
Moreover, Ethereum continues to dominate key sectors. It still hosts the majority of DeFi value (>$45B TVL) and NFT volume (even as NFTs cooled, Ethereum did $5.8B volume in Q1 2025). A stunning 60% of all tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) – things like tokenized treasuries, real estate shares, etc. – are on Ethereum. Traditional finance is beginning to use Ethereum tech behind the scenes: JPMorgan’s JPM Coin stablecoin runs on an Ethereum variant, and fintechs like Robinhood are building tokenization platforms on Ethereum. Treasury Secretary Bessent (fictional in our context, presumably a Trump appointee) forecast stablecoins could exceed $2 trillion in circulation; Tom Lee pointed out that if so, “Ethereum would likely benefit from exponential growth in usage,” since Ethereum is the primary backbone for stablecoin transactions today.
另外，Ethereum喺好多重點範疇都繼續一枝獨秀。佢仍然坐擁DeFi TVL超過450億美元、NFT成交量最大（NFT雖然淡咗，但2025年Q1以太坊NFT交易都做到58億美元）。有成六成token化現實資產（RWA，包括token化國債、樓宇股份等）都以太坊上進行。傳統金融都開始用Ethereum技術做後台：摩根大通嘅JPM Coin穩定幣就跑緊以太坊變種鏈，Robinhood啲Fintech公司都用Ethereum起token平台。財長Bessent（背景屬虛構人物，推斷係特朗普屬下）預測穩定幣流通可能超過2萬億美元；Tom Lee都指，真係咁的話，「Ethereum會因使用量爆炸式增長而大受惠」，因為以太坊本身就係穩定幣交易主幹。
All this is to say that Ethereum’s investment case is now underpinned by real adoption and technological progress. In 2017 it was mostly a promise; in 2021 we saw DeFi/NFTs spark usage but fees were a limiting factor; now in 2025, Ethereum has matured with scaling, better tokenomics, and integration into traditional finance pipelines. The market is recognizing this. Fundstrat’s label of Ethereum as “Wall Street’s preferred Layer-1” is telling. We even see that reflected in relative performance: historically Bitcoin led in institutional favor, but increasingly Ethereum is being seen as the tech platform investment, analogous perhaps to investing in an internet protocol’s growth, whereas Bitcoin is seen more as a static store of value. Both have roles, but Ethereum’s multifaceted utility gives it a growth narrative that Bitcoin lacks.
總結，其實而家Ethereum嘅投資價值係建立喺真實採用同技術進步之上。2017年係一個承諾；去到2021年有DeFi/NFT帶動用量，但手續費貴成個瓶頸；2025年今日，Ethereum已經有擴容解決方案、改善咗代幣經濟學、同傳統金融接軌，開始成熟。市場都留意到呢一點。Fundstrat將Ethereum形容為「華爾街最鍾意嘅Layer-1」就好有代表性。我哋都見到表現反映到：歷史上機構投資主要鍾意比特幣，但愈來愈多人視Ethereum為科技平台投資，好似投資互聯網協議發展咁；比特幣則多數當作靜態價值儲存。兩種資產都有自己定位，不過Ethereum多元化實用性俾咗佢一條增長故事，比特幣未必有。
To illustrate the improving fundamentals graphically: technical analysts point out that Ethereum’s price chart is forming a massive ascending triangle pattern spanning several years. The base of that triangle was around $90 in late 2018, and the horizontal top is around $4,000 (a level that repelled rallies in 2021 and 2022). Now ETH is again approaching that $4k ceiling – but this time with fundamentals and volume to back it up. The current rally already broke above a long-term downtrend line from the 2021 highs, and importantly it’s happening on strong trading volumes (not just thin hype). If ETH can decisively break $4,000, chartists say the triangle’s measured move could project to a $6,000–$8,000 target next. Technical signals like a golden cross (50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day) were achieved in May, further confirming bullish momentum. Even after the sharp rise, Ethereum remains above key moving averages (currently 18% above its 200-week EMA). The only near-term caution flag in technicals is that momentum indicators like the 14-day RSI are in overbought territory (mid-80s), suggesting a potential short-term consolidation or pullback. But overbought conditions are common in the early stages of a bull market and can persist while price grinds higher.
用圖表說明基本面改善：技術分析師指以太坊走勢圖正形成橫跨幾年嘅超大型上升三角形。底部係2018年底約$90，橫向頂部大約$4,000（2021、2022每次牛市都頂住咗）。依家ETH又返到接近$4k頂線，但今次有基本面同成交量支持。今次升浪已經突破由2021年高位拉落嘅長期下降趨勢線，最緊要係升浪有勁量配合（唔係靠講故事炒起）。如果ETH可以突破$4,000，技術派指量度升幅可去到$6,000–$8,000。技術號碼如金叉（50MA上穿200MA）喺5月出現過，再加上動能強勁。即使大升咗，ETH現時仍然企穩所有重要移動平均線之上（而家高EMA 200周大約18%）。最新技術唯一要留意係短線指標如14日RSI已經超買（80幾），可能有短線整固或回調。但牛市初期超買很正常，可以維持一段時間而價錢繼續上。
In summary, Ethereum’s core fundamentals – scarce supply, yield generation, thriving network usage, and integration into mainstream finance – provide a solid bedrock under this price rally. They reduce the downside risk relative to past hype cycles because even if speculators take profit, there’s a growing base of users and investors who want ETH for its functionality and economic properties. This dynamic likely contributed to why retail investors have been slower to jump in (less mania) while informed investors accumulated – the latter group sees the fundamental value and is less swayed by short-term sentiment. Ironically, the fact that retail sentiment is still somewhat low (fear of a pullback) is bullish from a contrarian perspective – it means the rally may have a lot more room to run if/when the broader public starts feeling confident again and piles in, possibly chasing new highs.
總結嚟講，Ethereum核心基本面——供應稀缺、可產生收益、網絡使用勁、同主流金融接軌——為今次升浪打下堅實基礎。相對以往純炒作牛市，呢幾樣特點減低左下行風險——就算投機者套現，都有愈來愈多用家、投資者真係為功能同經濟特性要持有ETH。呢個現象都解釋咗點解今次散戶入場比較慢（冇以前咁瘋狂），而內行投資者係趁低慢慢吸，因為佢哋識睇基本面，唔係咁易受短線情緒影響。反而，依家散戶情緒仍然偏低（怕回調），對反向投資者係利好——即係話如果遲啲大眾信心重回、真係追入，仲有一大段空間炒高。
Expert Forecasts and Market Outlook: How High Could ETH Go?
專家預測同市場展望：ETH究竟可以升幾多？
With Ethereum’s rapid rise, many are naturally asking: what comes next? Will ETH blast through $4,000 and keep soaring? Or will it cool off after such a steep climb? Experts and analysts have been weighing in with a mix of short-term targets and long-term forecasts, and their opinions reflect growing optimism – albeit with an eye on certain risk factors.
隨著以太坊急升，大家都自然想知下一步會點？ETH會唔會突破$4,000再飆？定係會唞一唞？專家同分析師不斷出新目標、做長短線預測，取態都見到信心持續增加——不過都會提部分風險因素。
In the short term (coming weeks), a consensus is forming that Ethereum breaking above $4,000 is likely barring any unexpected negative news. As noted, Fundstrat’s Mark Newton has a near-term target of $4k by end of July. He cites strong technical support for the move – e.g., ETH’s price action is backed by real volume and it has formed bullish patterns like the cup-and-handle or ascending triangle. Newton and others point out that $4,000 has been a formidable resistance in the past (ETH failed to hold above it in May 2021 and Nov 2021), but each test of resistance can weaken it. This time, the consolidation below $4k has been months long (ETH spent much of 2023 ranging between $1,600 and $2,000, then 1H 2024 between $1,800 and $3,000), so the breakout builds on a strong base.
短線（即係過幾周）大多數人都傾向相信只要無黑天鵝，ETH突破$4,000好大機會。以Fundstrat嘅Mark Newton為例，佢個目標係7月尾上到$4,000。佢講咗好多技術支持：如現時價升有真正成交量配合，形成咗杯底連手柄或者大型上升三角咁嘅利好形態。Newton同其他分析師都提過$4,000係過去幾次牛市嘅頑強阻力（ETH喺2021年5月、11月都守唔到），但阻力每試一次都會削弱。今次$4k以下已經整固咗幾個月（2023年大多數時間徘徊於$1,600–2,000，然後2024上半年$1,800–3,000），而家突破就有厚厚嘅底拖住。
One caution for the immediate term is that many traders have their eyes on the $4k level, and as mentioned, a lot of short positions have stop-losses near there. This could create a volatile spike if crossed (due to short liquidations fueling a quick run higher), followed by a possible retrace as some profit-taking kicks in (and as technical overbought conditions resolve). Data from Coinglass shows about $331 million in ETH shorts would be liquidated at $4,000, potentially
短線要小心一點，因為好多人都盯住$4,000這個位，亦有唔少淡倉止蝕位都set喺附近，一旦突破有機會引發空頭平倉觸發急升，之後就可能有一波回吐（因為技術上超買要調整同獲利回吐）。根據Coinglass數據，ETH升穿$4,000時，約3.31億美元淡倉將會被平倉，可能…triggering a further burst upward. On the flip side, that also means after a spike, the fuel from short covering might be exhausted, so the market could dip to retest the breakout area (classic “throwback” move) before continuing higher. In simpler terms: volatility around the $4k mark is expected. For traders, key levels to watch are $3,500 (recent support), $4,000 (psychological and prior ATH zone), and beyond that around $4,500 (next resistance region, roughly the 2021 all-time high). So long as Ethereum stays above its breakout zones (mid-$3k), the bullish structure remains intact.
推動市場進一步爆升。相反，呢亦都意味住當價格急升之後，平淡倉帶來既買盤可能會消耗殆盡，變相市場可能要回落測試突破位（典型嘅「回踩」走勢），先再繼續向上。簡單啲講：$4,000左右會有波動。對於炒家嚟講，重點位要睇住$3,500（近期支持）、$4,000（心理關口同之前嘅歷史高位區），再之後就係$4,500附近（下一個阻力區，約2021年高位）。只要以太幣守得住中$3,000幾呢啲突破區間，上升結構都算係健康。
Looking further out to the end of 2025, projections become even more bullish. As discussed earlier, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee foresees five-figure Ethereum prices if current trends hold. His official medium-term valuation range is $10,000 to $15,000 per ETH. Interestingly, he suggests this could happen “by year-end (2025) – or potentially sooner”, implying late 2025 is a conservative timeline. Lee’s rationale hinges on Ethereum’s role as the backbone of tokenization and DeFi. He argues that because Ethereum powers entire financial ecosystems (like how operating systems power software ecosystems), it should be valued more like a high-growth tech equity than a commodity. If one applies software-like multiples to Ethereum’s fee revenue or expected network economic activity, the valuations can reach into the trillions, supporting ETH prices in the 5-digit range. Additionally, he notes that traditional finance usage (e.g., JPMorgan’s projects on Ethereum) validates ETH’s value and “preferred” status.
睇遠少少去到2025年尾，預測更加樂觀。正如之前提過，Fundstrat嘅Tom Lee認為如果現時趨勢維持，以太幣有機會見到五位數美金。他正式嘅中線價值區間係$10,000至$15,000一枚。更有趣係佢認為呢個水平「可能年尾（2025）已經到——甚至更早」，即係話2025年尾已經算係保守預期。Lee嘅推論重點係以太坊作為代幣化同DeFi生態嘅骨幹，好似作業系統之於軟件生態咁，應該當佢係高增長科技股嚟睇多過純粹商品。用軟件股嘅市盈率去計以太坊既手續費收入或者預期網絡經濟活動，估值可以上到萬億級水平，支持ETH五位數價位。仲有，佢指出傳統金融機構（例如摩根大通等都喺以太坊做項目）都話明咗ETH係有價值同有「偏好」地位。
Other experts echo high targets: Mark Newton (the technical strategist) believes if ETH clears the $4k hurdle decisively, it opens the path to $6k–$8k as a next potential 2025 target, based on technical patterns. Some crypto analysts/influencers have been even bolder – for instance, Colin Talks Crypto expects $15,000–$20,000 within the current bull cycle. There are also “moderate” forecasts clustering around $6,000–$8,000 by late 2025 for more conservative analysts, which still implies roughly doubling from current levels.
其他專家都睇好：技術分析師Mark Newton認為只要ETH穩陣升穿$4,000，就有機會再挑戰*$6,000至$8,000*，以2025為目標，純技術圖形睇法。有啲加密分析員/網紅就更進取，例如Colin Talks Crypto估計今輪牛市會去到$15,000-$20,000。保守少少既分析預測都紛紛集中喺2025年尾$6,000-$8,000左右，其實都係現價再至少Double。
One very interesting call came from Standard Chartered’s research team, which earlier in the year predicted that if a spot Ethereum ETF were approved and adoption continued, ETH could reach $8,000 by end of 2025 and even $14,000 by the end of 2027. However, they reportedly tempered their near-term outlook around mid-2025 to a $4,000 target (perhaps believing the move to $10k will take longer). That said, Standard Chartered’s team is extremely bullish on crypto broadly – their head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, expects Bitcoin to hit $200,000 by end of 2025 and $135k by as soon as Q3 2025. If Bitcoin were to indeed 1.7× from current ~$120k to $200k, one would imagine Ethereum, with its higher beta historically, could rise 2–3× from current ~$3.7k, which indeed lands in that $8k–$12k zone.
渣打銀行研究團隊都出過一個幾吸引目標：年初預測如果現貨以太ETF過到，加埋使用率持續增長，2025年尾ETH可以上到$8,000，去到2027年尾甚至$14,000。不過中期嚟講，佢哋喺2025年中將短線目標調低返至$4,000，（可能認為衝上$10,000會再慢少少）。不過，渣打團隊對加密貨幣整體都好強勢——佢哋數碼資產研究主管Geoff Kendrick預期比特幣2025年尾去到$200,000，最快2025年第三季已經見$135k。如果比特幣由現時約$120k升到$200k（升約1.7倍），咁以太鏈向來波動更高，有機會由依家約$3,700再升2-3倍，即落喺$8,000-$12,000區間無走雞。
It’s also worthwhile to consider macro and external factors that could influence Ethereum’s trajectory. On the positive side: the global interest rate environment might turn more accommodative in 2025 if inflation is tamed and central banks ease policy, which could drive more capital into risk assets like crypto. Also, continued institutional adoption events – such as more Fortune 500 companies adding ETH to treasury (like we saw with MicroStrategy and BTC), or a nation-state doing something with Ethereum – would be catalyst material. We already saw hints: El Salvador, which famously holds Bitcoin, reportedly had considered issuing assets on Bitcoin and maybe using ETH (though the IMF pressured them otherwise). While El Salvador paused BTC buys recently under IMF guidance, it’s clear crypto is entering discussions at sovereign levels – the UK selling seized Bitcoin or Japan’s pension fund considering Bitcoin show governments are in the mix. If one were to, say, launch a bond on Ethereum or hold ETH in a national fund, that would be extremely bullish.
都值得考慮大環境同其他外在因素對以太坊走勢有幾大影響。正面嚟講：如果通脹受控，央行轉為放水，2025年全球利率環境有機會變寬鬆，咁資本又會流返入風險資產包括加密貨幣。再加上機構參與愈來愈多——好似有更多Fortune 500企業將ETH放入財政儲備（正如過去MicroStrategy買BTC嗰陣），甚至有國家級層面開始參與以太坊——呢啲都係重要催化劑。其實已經見到端倪：例如薩爾瓦多成為首個持有BTC嘅國家，據聞當時有諗過喺比特幣或者ETH上發債（不過因IMF壓力而作罷）。雖然薩爾瓦多跟隨IMF停咗BTC增持，但好清楚國家層面都開始討論加密貨幣——英國賣走沒收嘅比特幣、日本年金基金考慮買BTC都顯示咗政府都扑晒入嚟。如果遲啲真係有國家用以太坊發債，或者國家級基金持有ETH，咁就超級利好喇。
On the negative or risk side: regulatory setbacks or enforcement actions remain a risk, even if Ethereum itself has clarity. The SEC’s stance on Ethereum is friendly now, but what if a different regime revisited that? Unlikely near-term, but always a tail risk. Also, Ethereum’s success invites competition – rival smart contract platforms (though none currently match Ethereum’s network effects) could nibble at certain use cases if Ethereum doesn’t scale fast enough or if fees spike too high. However, given Ethereum’s layer-2 strategy, it seems to be staying ahead of that curve for now.
負面或風險方面：監管壓力或執法行動仍然存在，即使而家以太坊本身監管明朗，但萬一日後政策方向轉彎呢？短期未必，但都係尾部風險。此外，以太坊成功會吸引競爭——一啲對手智能合約平台（雖然目前冇一個及得上以太坊網絡效應）都會想搶部份應用場景，如果Ethereum唔夠快升級或者Gas Fee飆到太貴。但以太坊現時有Layer-2策略，暫時睇落追得上形勢。
Another risk is technological black swans – e.g., a serious exploit in Ethereum’s protocol or a successful attack by a quantum computer in a few years. The community is proactively working on such issues: for instance, developers like Jameson Lopp have proposed a quantum-resistant upgrade path to implement new address formats that hide public keys until after funds are spent, thereby mitigating quantum threats. This would be a multi-year effort (Phase A to discourage using old vulnerable addresses, Phase B to eventually freeze funds still on them). It’s not an immediate concern, but good to see the ecosystem planning long-term, which again may comfort investors that Ethereum is here to stay for decades.
另外亦有科技黑天鵝風險——譬如Ethereum協議出現嚴重漏洞，或者幾年內量子電腦黑客成功入侵。社群其實已經有意識主動處理：例如開發者Jameson Lopp就提議過升級成抗量子地址，設計新格式，直到用錢後先公開公鑰，以減低量子攻擊風險。呢個會係一個需時多年的工程（第一階段：令大家盡量唔用舊有易受攻擊地址；第二階段：最終凍結未搬走錢嘅舊地址）。雖然唔係即時迫切，但見到生態圈有長遠規劃都可以叫投資者安心，以太坊真係有能力行多幾十年。
From a market structure view, one possible headwind could be large unlocks or sales by early investors or foundations if price goes very high. The Ethereum Foundation itself holds a substantial ETH treasury (though now apparently smaller than SharpLink’s!). They have sold portions at cycle peaks before (famously near the 2018 top and 2021 top). If ETH raced toward, say, $10k, one might expect some long-term holders or even the Foundation to take some profit for funding development, which could temporarily cap price. But that’s speculative – and arguably, the presence of big new buyers (ETFs, corporates) could easily absorb such selling, much as MicroStrategy and others absorbed BTC miner selling in the past.
市場結構方面，一個潛在逆風係早期投資者或基金會大量解鎖/拋售ETH（如果升到新高位）。以太坊基金會本身都仲持有唔少ETH（雖然依家好似SharpLink都多過佢！）。佢哋以往喺升浪頂部都會套現（2018、2021年頂位時都賣過啲）。所以如果ETH抽到$10,000左右，長線持有人甚至基金會都唔排除順勢獲利支持開發資金，短暫壓一下價都唔出奇。但呢啲純屬推測 —— 事實係有更多大型新買家（ETF、企業）加入，就算真係拋貨都好大機會同過去MicroStrategy吸納BTC礦工盤一樣被吸收晒。
All told, the sentiment among crypto veterans is that Ethereum’s best days are still ahead. The current rally has strong underpinnings, and unless macro conditions sharply deteriorate or some major shock occurs, Ethereum appears to be in the early stages of a larger uptrend. The notion that ETH might revisit or exceed its November 2021 all-time high (~$4,870) in the coming months now seems plausible, whereas six months ago it seemed distant. If and when that happens, price discovery above ATH could be swift given how much the ecosystem has grown since 2021.
總括嚟講，加密圈老手普遍認為以太坊最黃金嘅日子仲係後面。今次升浪底氣十足，除非環球經濟極劇變差，或者出現突如其來黑天鵝，否則以太坊好大機會仲係大型升勢初期階段。ETH今年內重訪甚至突破2021年11月歷史高位（約$4,870）已經變得可行——六個月前根本唔敢諗。如果真係爆升穿頂，既然生態圈較2021年已經膨脹好多，咁之後「價值探索」會迅速得多。
Perhaps the most striking commentary came from a crypto trader known as Pentoshi, who observed that “some of these [ETH-holding] companies are just a month old and already trying to get as much ETH as possible – up to 1% of total supply in some cases”. Indeed, the emergence of public companies aiming to snag 0.5–1% of all ETH each is reminiscent of the 2020–2021 scramble by the likes of Grayscale, Tesla, and others to accumulate Bitcoin. That upended BTC’s supply-demand balance and sent it from $10k to $60k+ in a year. If a similar dynamic plays out for Ethereum – with multiple entities racing to lock down large chunks of supply – Ethereum’s valuation could re-rate much higher, potentially faster than many expect.
最惹人關注嘅評論，要數加密交易員Pentoshi——佢話「啲新成立只開一個月公司，已經盡量掃ETH，有啲目標攞到總供應1%都唔出奇！」事實上，有上市公司想落0.5%-1%總供應量，情況就好似2020-2021年Grayscale、Tesla同其他機構爭住買BTC，令BTC一年內由$10,000炒到$60,000+。如果以太坊都重演同樣爭購game——多間公司爭住鎖倉大部分現貨供應——估值真係會被迫大幅re-rate，個速度可能仲快過大家預期。
Finally, it’s instructive to remember that retail enthusiasm often lags in the early phase of a bull run but then overcorrects to euphoria later. We’re starting to see retail investors trickle back in (Google searches for “Ethereum” and exchange signups are climbing again), but many retail folks are still cautious, scarred by the 2022 bear market. If ETH breaks its previous highs and headlines scream “Ethereum at $5,000 for the first time!”, one can imagine a new wave of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) bringing in the masses. That could overshoot prices to levels even bulls don’t anticipate, at least temporarily. Previous bull cycles saw ETH go way beyond fair value in mania phases (in early 2018 ETH hit $1,400 when its fundamentals were far less developed; in 2021 it nearly touched $5k). With fundamentals now much stronger, a mania phase in late 2025 or 2026 could conceivably push ETH to the upper bounds of predictions or beyond (some outlier forecasts even mention $20k+ if a supercycle unfolds). Of course, any such phase would be followed by volatility and corrections – markets never move in a straight line.
最後要記住散戶熱情多數滯後牛市初段，之後先瘋狂超買。見到最近散戶慢慢返嚟（Google搜尋「Ethereum」、交易所新註冊都又升緊），不過大部分散戶依然戒心重，仲記得2022年熊市幾甘。萬一ETH爆升破頂，新聞大字標題「以太坊首次破$5,000！」，諗到又會FOMO湧入大批散戶。屆時價格有機會一度升到連最大好友都估唔到咁高。過去牛市亦出現過：ETH事實上曾經炒到遠高於基本面價值（2018年初無乜產品都炒到$1,400，2021年差啲衝破$5,000）。今時今日基本面強勁好多，如果25/26年真有牛市瘋狂期，ETH有機會真係衝上預測高位甚至更高位（有啲極端預測甚至講到$20,000+，如果超級周期成事）。當然，一如以往，爆升之後肯定會有大波動同調整——市場無咩會直線行到底。
In conclusion, the expert outlook ranges from cautiously optimistic (expecting a measured rise to $6k or so over a year) to downright exuberant (calling for $10k+ within the current cycle). What’s common among most credible analysts is the view that Ethereum’s recent jump is not just a flash in the pan – it has legs, supported by fundamentals and institutional adoption. Barring unforeseen shocks, Ethereum appears poised to continue its climb, albeit with healthy corrections along the way. For regular crypto readers and traders, the message is clear: Ethereum has reasserted itself as a market leader, and its price trajectory is now backed by serious momentum from whales, Wall Street, and Washington alike.
總結，專家預測由審慎樂觀（預2025年升到$6,000左右）至極度亢奮（話今個周期內有機會衝過$10,000）。但大部分認真分析師共識都係：以太坊今次爆升並唔係曇花一現——基本面同機構資金支持住個升勢。除非出現突發黑天鵝，以太坊大機會繼續向上，只不過中間要接受健康嘅調整。對於平時有睇加密新聞或有炒開幣的人嚟講，信息好明顯——以太坊已經重奪市場主角地位，今次升勢後面有巨鯨、華爾街、華盛頓幾路資金撐住。
Potential Consequences: What Ethereum’s Surge Means for the Crypto Ecosystem
Ethereum’s price jump and the forces driving it carry several important implications, both for the cryptocurrency ecosystem and for the broader intersection of crypto with traditional finance and policy. Here are some potential consequences and things to watch moving forward:
以太坊今次大升同背後推動力，會為整個加密市場，甚至對傳統金融同政策層面帶來幾個重大影響。以下係未來可能嘅後果同值得繼續關注嘅重點：
1. Altcoin Revival and “Flippening” Talk: Ethereum’s breakout is reviving the fortunes of the altcoin market. Typically, when Ether outperforms, it bolsters confidence in other decentralized platform tokens and DeFi assets (often referred to as “altseason”). We’re already seeing signs of this – for example, Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) have been rallying, and even niche alts are perking up. Ethereum is like the reserve asset of the altcoin world; its strength 通常亦會影響到建立於以太坊及其競爭對手上的項目。如果ETH繼續上升，可以預計到更廣泛的山寨幣復甦。特別是，與以太坊Layer-2生態系統有關的代幣（例如Arbitrum的ARB、Optimism的OP）可能因使用量及流動性提升而受惠——例如近期以太坊上的DEX交易量隨ETH價格暴漲而創新高，這直接為DEX代幣帶來更多手續費收入。
同時間，以太幣同比特幣之間的競爭話題又再炒起。隨著以太坊在表現上逐步拉近差距，有部份支持者開始猜測會否出現長期的「翻盤」（即ETH市值超越BTC）。雖然現時ETH約佔比特幣市值的20%而已，但這類討論常常喺ETH強勢期間升溫。就連Bloomberg等主流金融分析師都開始思考，如果趨勢如代幣化和DeFi不斷壯大，ETH未來會唔會挑戰BTC的主導地位。其實即使真係出現「翻盤」，更多只有象徵性，但都可以改變市場論述同投資組合分佈（例如某啲加密貨幣指數基金可能會加重ETH比例，如果認為ETH已經能與比特幣並駕齊驅）。目前比特幣依然穩佔龍頭，但單是大家認真討論這個話題，已經證明以太坊幾進步。
2. 關注加深但合法性提升： 隨住以太坊飆升及越來越多機構資金湧入，毫無疑問會引起監管機構、政策制定者及傳統金融守門人的更多關注。正面一面當然就係合法性——我哋已經見到美國國會議員甚至現任總統都積極參與討論加密政策，推動行業發展，而唔係一味打壓。如果譬如，有大量穩定幣或銀行業活動都依賴以太坊，以太坊的作用便可能成為金融穩定討論的一部份。當加密貨幣的規模愈來愈大，監管部門亦會推動DeFi協議、質押服務、加密交易所透明度等有更清晰的指引。新近通過的法例（如CLARITY、GENIUS）都係預早應對這啲問題。如果以太坊繼續升值，要留意全球監管的協調，例如歐盟MiCA框架已經計劃2025年在全歐規管加密業務，英國亦正制定本地方案（佢哋甚至講到要發展儲存及處理沒收加密資產的系統，皆因手頭仲有61,000枚BTC要處理）。
總括而言，若以太坊價高且被金融機構廣泛使用，有機會成為高層論壇議題——例如G20可能討論加密標準，IMF則會持續關注薩爾瓦多等國家涉足加密（IMF日前指出薩爾瓦多自計劃以來未有再買新比特幣，但亦標註該國政府正將BTC集中存錢包，IMF一直有監察）。但這些問題似乎都可控，只要監管清晰持續改善就得。未來或會要求加密公司加強申報，又或者對穩定幣做壓力測試，但這都係成熟的表現。對於以太坊用戶而言，初期更多監管可能會感覺限制多了（例如KYC要求滲入DeFi），但從大局來看，只要有明確規則，反而可吸引更多大資金參與。
3. 華爾街及企業FOMO： 2025年7月的發展可能會在機構之間引發多米諾效應。冇嘢能比「見到競爭對手成功或錯失賺錢機會」更能刺激華爾街行動。當渣打集團自豪宣布成為全球首間為客戶提供現貨比特幣及以太幣交易服務的銀行*，你可以預計高盛（Goldman Sachs）、摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）等其他銀行會感到壓力，唔敢落後。事實上，美銀CEO莫伊尼漢(Brian Moynihan)都承認已經做了大量穩定幣研究，只要合法以及有客戶需求就會發行——佢話暫時客戶需求未算高，但如果加密貨幣繼續升就會好快改變。摩根士丹利的CFO同樣話緊研究穩定幣及數碼資產應用。這些一向保守的銀行巨頭如今公開以正面態度討論加密，已經跟幾年前判若兩人。以太坊作為不少穩定幣及代幣化資產的基礎平台，無疑能受惠銀行入局。
繼SharpLink同Bit Digital之後，預計會有更多企業將資金配置於以太坊。諗下啲持有大量現金的科技或金融科技公司——佢哋有可能將部分資產分配到ETH作為策略性儲備（特別係有區塊鏈相關業務）。如果以太坊價格持續上升，呢個分配會自我強化：財務總監見到ETH表現理想又無被監管機構打壓，咁就成為一個有吸引力的非相關性資產。另外，有可能見到新型金融產品出現：例如以以太幣計價的債券（既然ETH可產生收益，會否有人發行以ETH支付利息的債券？），又或者受對沖需求推動下CME上ETH期貨與期權交易量大幅上升（CME最近ETH期貨未平倉量上升12%，說明機構參與越趨活躍）。
4. DeFi及Web3創新： 以太坊價格上升，往往為開發者生態系統帶來新動力及資本。唔少基於以太坊的項目於熊市期間持有ETH資金縮水；而家資金鏈重新拉長，可以投入更多發展。我哋可能見到新一輪DeFi協議推出，或現有協議升級以吸引牛市期間湧現的用戶/交易員。例如Uniswap下一版本或Layer-2相關創新將迎來新機遇。再者，如果穩定幣喺美國已經名正言順，銀行甚至可能與DeFi協議合作（例如針對受監管機構開發的permissioned DeFi池——Aave Arc等專案已在測試類似方案）。以太坊擴展性有望持續提升——例如EIP-4844（proto-danksharding）據悉為L2成本降了50%，而全面分片或其他升級或會在2025-26年間實現，進一步提升網絡吞吐量。
另一個範疇是NFT及創作者經濟——雖然目前未再炒作，但以太坊大牛市可以重新點燃NFT或新型數碼藏品（尤其散戶回歸時）。藍籌NFT系列或會重拾價值，品牌企業或會加快區塊鏈計劃（截至2025年初，Nike、Gucci、Adidas等品牌合共已經靠以太坊NFT掙了$1.4億）。以太坊的成就亦會帶動整體「Web3」正面情緒，進而鼓勵更多初創公司構建去中心化應用、社交平台等等。今次關鍵分別在於，這些應用有更可擴展的以太坊技術堆疊（靠L2），同埋更多監管明朗化，新用戶加入變得更容易。
5. 以太坊霸主地位挑戰： 並非一切一帆風順——以太坊的成功，難免會刺激其他競爭對手加大力度。其它Layer-1公鏈（如Solana、Avalanche等）肯定會想吸納更多用戶/開發者，標榜更平、或針對特定場景更好。到目前為止，冇一條鏈能夠實質動搖以太坊的網絡效應，但競爭往往推動整體技術進步。以太坊需要加快某些升級（如更快速開展分片或狀態管理等），維持優勢。不過，以太坊有龐大開發社群，而家又因價格高而能夠調動更多資源投入（無論是開發亦或生態補助），維持領導地位完全有本錢。值得關注的情景是，如果以太坊手續費因使用量大升而再次令人生畏——究竟L2能否無縫應對，定係用戶會流向其他鏈？現時的跡象係L2發揮作用，主網gas用量因L2而下降約30%。可見以太坊走模組化擴展策略確實見效，對維持行業龍頭地位有利。
6. 長遠社會影響： 拉遠少少來睇，以太坊的崛起可能影響我們對網絡上價值觀及協作方式的想法。巨大的市值和大眾接受度，有望催生實驗性的新型治理（如DAO自主管理大額資金）、公益資金（如Gitcoin等用ETH財富資助開源生態）等。亦同時向懷疑者施壓：過去指加密貨幣無內在價值的人，當見到以太坊被主流用法採納（如養老基金投資、銀行利用以太坊作清算渠道），立場或會軟化。討論「加密貨幣會唔會生存」可能再冇意思，反而焦點會轉到「點樣善用新科技」。由這角度睇，以太坊的成功對一般人及立法者都有助整個區塊鏈行業正名。
一個具體徵兆：退休金401(k)納入加密資產——如果未來有數百萬美國人自動於退休帳戶持有ETH的一部份，咁政治經濟自自然然會支持加密發展（冇人想自己退休金被封殺或受損）。特朗普潛在的行政命令是一大步，但其實計劃供應商願意採用更關鍵。如果成事的話，以太坊將真正加入跟股票、債券並列的標準資產組合。其社會效應是傳統金融與加密進一步融合，最終不再被視為兩回事，而係同一條線上的不同組成。事實上，如今「代幣化國債」等詞已經在試點（即現實世界的債券透過以太坊平台交易，結算更快），BlackRock行政總裁Larry Fink最近甚至話資產代幣化是「市場的下一代」。如果這個願景落實（例如證券交易所用區塊鏈結算），以太坊將有望在未來市場發揮關鍵基建角色，而其價格將很大機會……reflect that importance.
總結來說，Ethereum（以太坊）的價格飆升並非孤立事件——這既是加密貨幣採用趨勢的產物，也是推動這些趨勢的催化劑。直接影響是帶來了更多財富及關注，這通常會形成一個正向循環，推動創新和更多投資湧入。未來的挑戰在於如何負責任地應對增長：確保安全（避免大規模黑客攻擊或故障）、促進共融（不單止讓「巨鯨」受益，普通用戶都可以有份），以及在大型機構加入時，依然保持去中心化的精神。
對於一般加密讀者和參與者來說，重點是Ethereum已經牢牢奠定了其作為數碼資產宇宙基石的地位。近期的升勢再次證明這個網絡本身的強韌和重要性。我們正見證著一個成熟過程，Ethereum不再只是投機性玩物，而是吸引著數十億美元級別機構關注、同時影響監管政策的重要平台。當然，波動在所難免——價格始終會上落。不過，從技術、監管以及應用方面打下的基礎，顯示Ethereum長遠走勢仍然向上。這次價格急升令人興奮，但要知道，這只不過是Ethereum演變成為全球重要金融基礎設施長篇故事中的一章。