我哋係咪正處於比特幣超級周期，定又係一次加密貨幣泡沫？

加密貨幣市場一向週期性好強，經常見到價格飆升至高位後又急速下跌。

到咗2025年，比特幣同整個加密貨幣市場再次迎來強勁升浪，引發咗一個長期爭論：今次會唔會唔同？會唔會係一個長期增長嘅超級周期，定只係另一個註定爆破嘅投機泡沫？以下會深入探討加密市場周期嘅歷史、「超級周期」嘅證據，同泡沫爆破嘅警告訊號，依據可靠數據同專家觀點，帶來持平、分析性嘅角度。

理解加密貨幣市場周期

比特幣作為始祖加密貨幣，多年嚟基本都係跟住大約四年一次嘅繁榮同衰退節奏。呢啲周期通常同比特幣「減半」事件有關——即每隔四年新增比特幣供應會減半。理論上，新增供應減少，如果需求穩定甚至增長，價格就自然向上帶動，推動牛市。歷史上，喺每次減半後，比特幣都曾急速上升：2012年減半後高位係2013年底，2016年減半後高峰係2017年底，2020年減半後又去到2021年底的高點。每一個周期，當價格上升，炒作氛圍亦會發酵，新手投資者大量湧入，往往變成炒風過火——最後就迎來急速調整甚至大跌。

呢種周而復始嘅循環，令好多加密貨幣老手逐漸形成一種「四年周期論」，總係預期有1至2年牛市，跟住就會有幾年熊市。呢個現象好明顯：比特幣喺2013年初只係13美元，去到2013年12月已經超過1,100美元，之後2014年暴跌近八成；2017年初1,000美元左右，到2017年底接近2萬美元，之後喺2018年「加密寒冬」又跌咗八成；最近2020年中未夠1萬美元，但去到2021年11月幾乎見到6.9萬美元，2022年又下跌超過七成。呢種咁極端嘅牛熊交替，令加密市場俾人聯想到過山車或者溜溜球。有金融策略師戲言：「比特幣好鍾意每四年就嚟一次大跌。」

雖然每次都跌得人心驚膽跳，但比特幣長遠趨勢一路都係向上。每次崩盤之後，價格都遠高過上一次周期嘅底部。峰值一次比一次高：由2013年約1,100美元、2017年2萬美元、2021年更去到6.9萬美元；低位亦次次創新高：2013年崩盤後低位約200美元、2017年後約3,200美元、2021年後約17,000美元。咁樣逐步推高嘅情況，令人觀察到：即使呢啲係泡沫，都好得意。「特別之處在於每次崩盤後，個價都唔會跌返去起點以下，反而每次都創新高，」經驗豐富嘅投資者Andrew Page指出，如果比特幣真係泡沫，「都會係史上最大、最持久同最特別嘅泡沫。」

明白周期性，有助評估2025年今次升浪。一方面，加密貨幣過往多次大升大跌，唔容樂觀認定升勢會永久持續；另一方面，每次熊市之後市場都能夠回升再創新高，顯示市場慢慢成熟、基礎支持提升。呢種矛盾引發「超級周期定泡沫」討論：市場係咪終於突破咗過往暴力波動，邁向平穩增長？定只係歷史又再重演？

超級周期 vs. 泡沫：意味住咩？

正式討論之前，先要搞清楚定義。「泡沫」喺金融市場一向好出名：即資產價格急速上升至唔可持續水平，主要靠炒風同「更大咗愚人」效應推高，而唔係資產本身有價值。每個泡沫終有一日爆破，價值跳水，大量財富化為烏有。批評加密貨幣嘅人唔少用過呢詞。經濟學家Nouriel Roubini曾形容加密貨幣係「史上最大泡沫之母」，亦有人話比特幣係龐氏騙局或者冇實際價值。傳統泡沫的特點係，資產價格遠遠超過理性嘅估值，升幅只能靠源源不絕嘅新資金推高。一份學術分析話：「如果加密貨幣價格只能靠啱啱入場者出更高價，咁就講緊泡沫，回報同龐氏騙局冇分別。」

至於另一邊係「超級周期」概念。喺加密圈，超級周期即代表一個極長時間牛市，或者資產價格長期維持高位，超越以往大起大落。呢個主張係：今次會唔同，某啲特別因素（好似空前規模嘅用戶接納、宏觀經濟環境）令市場唔再經歷深度熊市，而係價格繼續升、最多都只係細波幅調整。加密企業家 Dan Held 喺2020-2021年推廣比特幣超級周期理論，話今次「將同以往周期唔同」，主要係正面力量集結而成。超級周期支持者認為，加密貨幣已經規模咁大、影響力咁高，以前嗰啲「瘋狂炒作→崩盤」嘅劇本未必再發生；主流金融機構參與、全球資金泛濫、比特幣地位獲承認等，都支持價格持續向上，可能長時間唔會出現以往「四年一跌」情況。

但所謂「超級周期」都唔等於唔會跌——即使睇好後市嘅人都預期有波幅，只不過調整幅度較小。例如經濟學家 Alex Krüger 認為比特幣於2020年代中期開始進入超級周期，呢個表現形式可能係「多次20%-40%回調，而唔會大跌85%咁嚴重」。換言之，調整總會有，但真係超級周期－－就唔會再見證資產價值腰斬甚至更甚。

最終，「超級周期定泡沫」探討嘅問題係：依家高位係咪有結構性支持（用戶接納、經濟功用、機構需求等），定只係炒作一場遲早散水？要客觀分析，必須同時觀察過往記錄同而家市場狀況。

加密貨幣榮枯史速覽

加密貨幣只係十幾年歷史，但週期極不穩定。每個周期特性同觸發因素唔同，但都有共通位：宣傳帶動樂觀、資金蜂擁（多數係散戶炒短線）、最後現實還原價格。了解過去周期有助分析2025年市場有無本質分別。

• 2013：早期泡沫 － 追夢情懷。比特幣2013年首次登上全球新聞，由未夠$15到12月破$1,100，升咗100倍。推動力量嚟自早期用家熱情同媒體關注，市場相信比特幣作為一種不受政府控制嘅新貨幣，有機會革命性改變世界––雖然當時基建同用途都未成熟。去到2014年初，現實來臨。當時最大交易所Mt. Gox爆出醜聞倒閉，加上監管憂慮升溫，泡沫爆破：之後一年比特幣價值跌咗八成，其他初代加密貨幣（Altcoin）都有爆煲。不過，比特幣冇死。到2015年，價位回落到二百幾美元，雖然高位入貨慘輸，但仍然較2013年前高出好多。呢個經驗定下咗加密市場模板：過度興奮→急劇糾正，但唔會歸零。

• 2017：ICO狂熱與FOMO大爆發。2013年見證加密貨幣首度曝光，2017年則真正走入大眾視野——無論好壞。比特幣由年初1,000美元升到年底近2萬美元，其他競爭幣（以太幣、瑞波幣及其他新幣）升幅更誇張。推手之一係ICO（首次代幣發行）熱潮：創業公司只需一份白皮書就能籌錢發行新幣。市場新幣橫飛，個個都想成為下一個比特幣或以太幣。全球散戶大舉入場，未買過加密貨幣嘅人都怕執輸衝入場炒。呢期可謂炒風最癲時期：連的士司機都炒幣、有人借錢入比特幣。到2017年底，泡沫跡象一一浮現，估值遠高於區塊鏈實際應用。2018年初恐慌來襲，中國封殺ICO及交易平台等監管警告，令大量項目露底成「空氣幣」，市場出現股災式拋售，比特幣高位跌咗超過八成，2018年12月低見3,200美元。無數ICO幣變零，整體加密市值喺幾個月蒸發數千億美元。又一次泡沫爆破…… Sure! Here’s the translation in zh-Hant-HK, formatted as you requested (skipping translation for markdown links):

• 2021：機構及DeFi熱潮。經歷咗2019同大部分2020年嘅冷靜期， 加密貨幣市場喺2020年底同2021年再次爆發。比特幣由2020年9月大約$10,000一路升到2021年11月創新高， 差唔多$68,700。今次升浪嘅特點係引起咗一波機構入場，以及新興熱潮例如DeFi（去中心化金融）同NFT（非同質化代幣）。華爾街公司同企業開始配置比特幣――最出名就係MicroStrategy同Tesla將比特幣加落資產負債表，大銀行亦開始提供加密貨幣產品。市場主題變成咗加密貨幣已經變成一種合法嘅宏觀資產，「數碼黃金」同未來金融嘅代表。好多愛好者大聲宣稱大眾採納時代已經來臨：普通人可以喺PayPal同Cash App買比特幣，數碼藝術NFT更以千萬元成交。不過，到2021年底，市場過熱情況漸漸浮現。槓桿水平高，一啲山寨幣同迷因幣（例如Dogecoin）冇實際基礎下爆升，市場開始有炒作泡沫迹象。宏觀經濟逆風，例如通脹上升同加息預期，亦開始影響市場。去到2022年年初，加密貨幣進入另一波自由落體。多重連鎖事件令跌勢惡化，變成加密史上最嚴重崩盤之一：2022年5月，一個主要算法穩定幣（TerraUSD）失敗，引發連鎖破產（對沖基金Three Arrows Capital，借貸平台Celsius、Voyager等都倒下）。到2022年11月，全球最大加密交易所之一FTX爆煲，牽涉到詐騙指控，震撼全個市場。結果，由2021年高位到2022年低位，估值蒸發咗兩萬億美元。比特幣2022年底曾跌至大約$16,000，最高位累跌近七成半，曾經風光一時嘅山寨幣跌幅更加高達九成。呢一役再次提醒大家，加密貨幣波幅極大，炒作過度分分鐘全軍覆沒。

儘管2022年崩盤咁嚴重，行業又一次挺過難關。到2023年初，加密貨幣開始從「艱難的一年」中反彈，好多人認為這次洗牌對行業有益――清走咗害群之馬同過度高風險嘅項目，亦逼使監管同風控更加審慎。每一波泡沫爆破，都淘汰咗較弱嘅項目，同時行業學到新一課，但加密貨幣核心理念依然前行。到2025年，問題係這些經驗教訓，加上新市場動態，會唔會改變咗一貫嘅牛熊循環模式。

下面嵌入咗一張叫「比特幣彩虹價格圖」嘅圖表，一個對數標度圖，反映比特幣多個週期內長期價格走勢，用彩色帶表示各個估值範圍，由「基本劈價搶貨」到「極度泡沫區」。過去高位，例如2013年底、2017年底，清楚見到升穿紅色「泡沫」區， 但2021年周期，即使見頂亦只升到橙色「FOMO加劇」區。 到2024年底，比特幣價格又再上升，但仍未觸碰紅色區，反映今次升浪（到目前為止）似乎比2017年瘋狂時理性得多。呢啲數據支持市場逐步成熟嘅理論——但值得注意係，根據過往經驗，每當比特幣接近高位區，之後都會有一段調整期。 彩虹圖創作者都強調，呢張圖只係有趣視覺化，唔係水晶球，但有助用家直觀睇到每個周期高低位極端對比。

比特幣彩虹價格圖展示過去一啲牛熊循環，紅色代表泡沫區域。值得留意，2013年同2017年間，比特幣最高升入紅區，2021年周期見頂較低，而而家2024–25升浪（圖右邊）暫時都未去返嗰啲亢奮水平。有人因而推斷，市場今次增長可能更可持續，而非最後爆煲。但如所有歷史走勢一樣，最終會否創新高，再試高位，唯有拭目以待。

歷史教訓係，無論每個牛市點樣瘋狂，到最後都會有現實檢驗。最有趣嘅係，每一波牛市都有人唱「今次唔同」——主張所謂超級週期理論——但之後事實證明只係新一輪熊市前夕。根據Cointelegraph分析，每一次大升市，都有新常態論：2013–14年，有人話全球會採用比特幣做法定貨幣，令價格繼續升；2017–18年，唔少人相信機構接受同區塊鏈主流化，市場唔會爆煲；2020–21年，科技巨企同對沖基金入場，以為市場有底。 但每次，「超級週期」都冇兌現——最後都係大瀉收場，熊市拖長。當中特別極端例子係2021–22年Three Arrows Capital (3AC)嘅下場。3AC創辦人Su Zhu同Kyle Davies咁高調推「超級週期」論，指今次唔會有深度熊市，結果大市一轉淡，3AC嘅激進倉位全軍覆沒——基金破產，更帶動更大規模爆破，令加密市場總市值縮水一半。教訓係：將身家賭晒落無止境牛市，分分鐘傾家蕩產。Cointelegraph就話得好：「超級週期其實係將你所有積蓄豪賭一鋪風險好大嘅理論。」

呢啲歷史回顧令好多分析員保持審慎。要證明今次循環真的會破格，因為以往凡話「今次唔同」都最後幻滅。不過都睇到2025年行業生態同過往高峰期都已發生變化。要評估超級週期係咪真出現，大家要望下今次升市梗係咩推動力，點樣同以前作比較。

2024–2025：新升浪配合市場變革

去到2025年中， 加密貨幣又再風雲再起。比特幣不單止喺2022年崩盤後收復失地，仲首次突破歷史高位，升穿咗極具象徵意義嘅$100,000大關。到2025年7月，比特幣交易價已經高於$120,000，而全球加密貨幣市值首次突破$4萬億大關。以某啲指標睇，現時加密貨幣市場規模、融入主流金融層面，甚至比2017或2021高峰時期更加深、更加廣。今次復甦有幾個重要推動因素，亦正正成為「今次可能真係唔同」嘅主因：

• 機構及結構性需求：2024–25年升浪同2017年百花齊放嘅散戶瘋狂明顯不同，今次主要受機構資金同市場架構化推動。最大突破係在主要市場推出現貨比特幣ETF。去到2024年底，多隻比特幣ETF陸續推出或審批中，仲有世界最大資產管理公司旗下基金。特別係BlackRock嘅iShares Bitcoin Trust（IBIT）熱爆，上市幾個星期資金流入已超過$170億美元——退休金、捐贈基金、財富管理機構終於有簡單、受規管嘅渠道接觸比特幣。BTC Markets分析員Rachael Lucas話，有一排現貨比特幣ETF單日資金流入逾10億美元，去到2025年中，ETF持有嘅比特幣已經佔全ETF市場總值逾6%。「呢啲唔係炒高嘅泡沫，係結構性需求。」Lucas補充，指大型投資者買比特幣唔係為搏快錢，而係長線持有、分散投資組合。事實上，比特幣喺主流投資者中地位大升，連一啲過去曾經唱淡嘅機構都態度逆轉。BlackRock行政總裁Larry Fink都喺CNBC承認，以前睇錯比特幣，家下認同佢係「數碼黃金」同「正宗金融工具」，可以對沖貨幣貶值。連華爾街龍頭都咁睇，比特幣已經登堂入室。

• 主流地位及政治順風：仲有一項信心來源，係政治及監管氣氛轉變，尤其係美國。2024年11月特朗普意外當選美國總統（中間離任一屆後回歸），直接帶動加密市場情緒。特朗普本身都轉軚，由質疑比特幣變成「親加密」政客，揚言要令美國成為「全球加密之都」。佢贏得連任，加上國會多名親加密盟友，市場即刻大為振奮。事實上，比特幣喺2024年美國大選前大約徘徊$60,000，特朗普當選後短短幾星期升至六位數。有分析認為，主要係預期監管態度寬鬆同政策支持。特朗普團隊亦好快釋出友好訊號，例如支持建立美國戰略比特幣儲備（類似黃金儲備），又提名親比特幣人士取代Gary Gensler做SEC主席。簡單嚟講， 新政府立場「將過往嘅監管阻力變成推動力」。連原本好審慎嘅資金都開始注視住。AMP（管理千億退休基金公司）投資策略主管Shane Oliver表示，佢哋團隊「再無法忽視」比特幣升勢；2024年已經開始細注一注，因為「比特幣已經成為金融宇宙一部分……唔可以再當佢冇到」。Oliver仍然認為加密資產需要謹慎部署風險。due to volatility, but importantly he notes that as Bitcoin “gains acceptance then it probably has a lot more upside to it” over time. In short, Bitcoin’s journey from fringe to financial mainstream seems closer than ever in 2025, aided by political legitimacy and regulatory clarity that were absent in past cycles.

由於波動性，但更重要的是他指出，隨著比特幣「愈來愈被接納，隨時間可能有更多上升空間」。簡而言之，比特幣由邊緣走向金融主流的過程，似乎在2025比以往任何時候都更接近，受惠於以往週期不存在的政治認受性及監管清晰度。

• Macroeconomic Climate – Fuel for a Supercycle? The broader economic backdrop has also been favorable for Bitcoin’s narrative as a store of value. After a period of aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 to combat inflation, central banks pivoted to a more accommodative stance by 2024 as global growth showed signs of slowing. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for instance, began cutting rates in late 2024. By December 2024, it had reduced the benchmark rate by a cumulative 100 basis points (1 percentage point) since the fall. Investors anticipate further easing through 2025. These expectations have weakened the U.S. dollar and rekindled concerns about inflation and currency debasement – conditions under which Bitcoin, with its provably limited supply, shines as an inflation hedge. “Concerns about inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar, and expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve make Bitcoin’s decentralized nature more appealing than ever,” noted a Brave New Coin analysis in late 2024. Additionally, the same analysis quoted London-based macro investors observing that a global cycle of rate cuts is a supportive macro dynamic for risk assets broadly. Bitcoin’s price movements in 2025 have shown sensitivity to Fed signals: it surged past $106,000 on speculation of imminent rate cuts, then briefly dipped when the Fed struck a slightly more hawkish tone than expected. Nonetheless, the trajectory of monetary policy seems to be bending in Bitcoin’s favor compared to the tightening cycle that punctured the 2021 boom.

• 宏觀經濟環境——超級週期的燃料？更廣泛的經濟背景也有利於比特幣作為價值儲存的論述。2022年各央行為壓抑通脹而大幅加息後，隨著2024年全球增長放緩，各國央行轉向較寬鬆取態。例如美國聯儲局在2024年底開始減息；到12月，基準利率自秋季起一共下調100基點（即1個百分點）。投資者預期2025年還會進一步寬鬆。這些預期令美元轉弱，並重新引發對通脹及貨幣貶值的關注——在這些情況下，比特幣因供應有保證地有限，而作為抗通脹資產更顯優勢。Brave New Coin於2024年末的分析指出：「對通脹的擔憂、美元轉弱，以及聯儲局預期減息，都令比特幣去中心化的特性比以往更加吸引。」同一分析亦引述倫敦的宏觀投資者觀察到，全球減息週期為整體風險資產帶來正面宏觀動力。2025年比特幣價格對聯儲局訊號反應敏感：受減息預期帶動，一度衝破106,000美元，之後因聯儲局語氣比預期略偏鷹派而短暫回落。儘管如此，貨幣政策走勢相比2021年打破牛市的收緊週期，明顯對比特幣來說更有利。

• Market Maturation: Lower Volatility and Deeper Liquidity? Another striking difference in the 2024-25 upswing has been the character of the market’s rise. Past bulls, especially 2017, were marked by frantic volatility and retail-driven “altcoin season” frenzies. In 2025 so far, Bitcoin’s ascent, while steep, has been somewhat more orderly and Bitcoin-focused. The Bitcoin Dominance Index – which measures Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value – hit multi-year highs, exceeding 50% and even 60% during parts of 2025. This indicates that Bitcoin outperformed most alternative coins, a sign that speculative excess in fringe tokens was more limited than in 2017 when small-cap tokens soared indiscriminately. Large-cap coins like Ethereum have also risen, but the market hasn’t seen the same degree of exuberance in dubious micro-cap tokens or copycat projects (with some exceptions in the memecoin arena, which we’ll touch on). Greater institutional participation has likely brought deeper liquidity and somewhat dampened extreme swings. “Institutional participation and evolving regulations mean less volatility and fewer dramatic peaks and crashes. Bitcoin’s market is maturing,” observed Brave New Coin, pointing to signs like sovereign wealth funds and pension plans increasing exposure to crypto. In late 2024 when Bitcoin first crossed $100k, analysts noted that the usual retail “FOMO” was actually less intense than in 2017 – many individual investors were more cautious this time, perhaps scarred by previous busts, while institutions were methodically accumulating. This dynamic could help avoid a sudden blow-off top, instead supporting a more sustained rally. Indeed, some market observers interpreted the rally’s cadence as evidence of a supercycle-like behavior: one where dips occur but are shallower, and the uptrend resumes thanks to consistent demand. Alex Krüger, for example, asserted Bitcoin was likely in a supercycle, seeing the early 2025 pullback from ~$110k down to the $80–90k range as a healthy correction rather than the start of a prolonged bear. (By February 2025, Bitcoin did correct nearly 20% off its highs amid some profit-taking and macro jitters, but then stabilized – a far cry from the swift 50%+ meltdowns of past peaks.)

• 市場成熟：波動收斂、流動性提升？2024-25升浪另一個顯著分別是市場上升方式的轉變。以往牛市，特別是2017年，都是由瘋狂波動和散戶「山寨季」熱潮主導。到2025年，比特幣升勢雖然急進，但明顯較有秩序，且以比特幣為主導。比特幣主導率（Bitcoin Dominance Index）——即比特幣佔整體加密貨幣市值的百分比——創下多年新高，2025年部分時段甚至超過60%。這反映比特幣跑贏大部分其他幣種，2017年時郁指不明的小型代幣無差別爆升的投機狂熱明顯減少。像以太坊等大型代幣亦有上升，但市場未見可疑微型代幣或仿製項目大規模炒作（除了少數迷因幣範疇，稍後會提到）。機構參與度提升，預料帶來更深流動性及降低極端波動。Brave New Coin 指出：「機構參與和監管演進意味著波動縮減，極端高低少見。比特幣市場日益成熟。」如主權基金、退休金計劃等都增加加密貨幣持倉。2024年比特幣首度突破十萬美元，分析指零售投資者的「錯過恐懼」比2017年明顯弱得多——不少散戶更見審慎，可能因以往泡沫爆破留下陰影，而機構則有系統地吸納。這有助避免突然見頂反轉，反而維持持續升勢。事實上，部分市場觀察者認為升浪節奏明顯有超級週期味道：即回調會有，但較淺，升勢能因持續需求而續行。例如Alex Krüger就認為比特幣很可能進入「超級週期」，見2025年初由約十一萬美元回落至八至九萬區間只是健康調整，不是熊市開端。（2025年2月，比特幣自高位調整近兩成，主要因獲利盤及宏觀憂慮，但很快企穩，與過去高位急跌五成以上不可同日而語。）

• Technological and Network Progress: While harder to quantify in price impact, the continued development of crypto infrastructure and technology also differentiates 2025 from prior cycles. Bitcoin’s network has become more efficient and functional – for instance, the Lightning Network (a layer-2 solution for faster, cheaper transactions) has grown significantly, enabling Bitcoin to be used more easily for everyday payments. This addresses the old criticism that Bitcoin is too slow or costly for small transactions. More broadly, after surviving multiple cycles, the crypto ecosystem in 2025 features more robust exchanges (those that survived or emerged post-FTX have prioritized transparency and compliance), better custody solutions for big investors, and clearer regulatory frameworks in many jurisdictions. All these elements help instill confidence that crypto is not just a wild west casino but an emerging asset class that’s here to stay. For example, countries like Germany, Thailand, and states like Texas are even proposing their own Bitcoin reserve or treasury programs, and multiple U.S. states have passed laws recognizing crypto in various legal contexts. The very notion of a U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Act (as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis) would have been fantasy in 2017; in 2025, it’s a real proposal gaining traction. These advancements underpin the view that the foundations of this bull market are more solid than in the past.

• 技術及網絡進步：雖然難以直接量化對價格的影響，但加密基建和技術持續發展，亦令2025年與過往週期有所不同。比特幣網絡變得更高效、更有功能，例如閃電網絡（Lightning Network，一種二層方案，提升交易速度和降低成本）大幅增長，令比特幣更易日常支付，針對以往比特幣太慢、太貴不宜小額交易的批評。更宏觀來說，加密圈經歷多次週期淘汰與洗牌，2025年已形成更穩健的交易所（經歷或存活於FTX危機後的新平台強調透明及合規）、為大戶度身訂造的託管方案、不少司法管轄區監管亦趨明確。這些元素加強信心：加密資產不只是「狂野西部賭場」，而是真正嶄露頭角的新資產類別。例如德國、泰國、德克薩斯州等正提出自己的比特幣儲備或金庫計劃，美國多個州份亦通過法律，承認加密貨幣於不同法律範疇的地位。若說2017年有人提議美國出台《比特幣儲備法》還是天方夜譚，2025年則是具體方案並逐步受到重視。這些進展印證今次牛市基礎，比過去明顯更扎實。

All of the above factors feed into the supercycle hypothesis: that maybe the crypto market has reached a level of maturity, integration, and broad support such that the old boom-bust pattern could smooth out into a longer, more sustainable growth phase. Proponents argue that while corrections will come, the floor is now higher and the likelihood of an 80% crash is much lower. As Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures remarked, the presence of large institutional investors could indeed “limit any downturn” even if a typical cycle theory would call for a correction around 2025.

上述種種，為「超級週期」假說提供了支持：即加密市場或已進化到一定程度的成熟、整合及廣泛認同，傳統牛熊大起大落或可被一個更長遠、更可持續的增長週期所取代。支持者認為，雖然回調始終會出現，但底部已拉高，出現八成大崩盤的機率大減。Castle Island Ventures 的 Nic Carter 就曾指出，即使按傳統週期理論，2025年該是大調整的時候，大機構參與本身就能「限制跌幅」。

However, not everyone is convinced that the ghosts of past bubbles have been exorcised. Alongside the optimism, there remain significant warning signs and skeptical views suggesting that 2025’s boom could still be “just another bubble” following the script of history. It’s to those we now turn, before rendering a balanced verdict.

然而，並非所有人都相信過往泡沫的陰霾已一掃而空。儘管樂觀氣氛濃厚，但仍有重要警號及懷疑論點，認為2025年這波升浪，或許仍然只是歷史重演的「又一個泡沫」。在作出平衡判斷之前，值得審視這些質疑。

Signs of a Supercycle: Reasons This Cycle Might Be Different

超級週期的徵兆：這個周期或許真的不同的原因

Let’s first summarize the bullish indicators that suggest a supercycle – a long-lasting uptrend with only mild downturns – could be materializing:

我們先總結一下支持超級週期——即牛市時間持續、回調較淺——或正在出現的看漲指標：

1. Unprecedented Institutional Adoption and HODLing: In previous cycles, the marginal buyer driving prices to extremes was often a short-term speculator. In 2024–25, a larger share of demand is coming from institutions, corporations, and even governments with multi-year investment horizons. These actors are more likely to hold through volatility (or even add on dips) rather than panic-sell en masse. For instance, as of late 2024, over $36 billion had flowed into crypto through newly launched spot ETFs and similar vehicles. Public companies like MicroStrategy have amassed huge Bitcoin treasuries (over 400,000 BTC in MicroStrategy’s case) with stated intentions to hold for the long term. Sovereign wealth funds have dipped in. If some national treasuries or central banks start allocating to Bitcoin (a prospect raised by the Bitcoin Reserve Act discussions), that would represent a structural source of demand that simply didn’t exist before. This kind of “strong hands” ownership can buffer the market against the steep collapses triggered by collective fear. Indeed, investor composition has shifted: Glassnode data (often cited in industry analyses) has shown a rising proportion of Bitcoin being held in long-term addresses, and exchange balances (coins sitting on exchanges ready to trade) have trended down – suggesting more coins are in cold storage, less available for quick sale. In theory, a more illiquid supply held by committed investors could dampen any crash.

2. 前所未有的機構吸納及「鑽石手」持有：以往周期，將價格推高到極端的多為短期投機客。2024–25年，不少需求愈來愈來自機構、企業，甚至有多年投資期視野的政府。這些持分者比一般散戶更傾向長期持有（甚至在回調時加碼），不會集體恐慌拋售。例如2024年年底，新推出的現貨ETF和類似產品已為加密貨幣帶來逾360億美元資金。MicroStrategy 等上市公司收購巨額比特幣儲備（MicroStrategy持幣數目超過40萬枚），並公開表明會長期持有。主權基金亦有部署。若部分國家或央行真的配資比特幣（這亦是「比特幣儲備法」討論的內容），那就是以往不存在的結構性需求。這種「長線強手」結構，有助市場抵禦集體恐慌引發的大型崩潰。事實上，投資者結構已經出現變化：Glassnode 數據（業界分析常引用）顯示，越來越多比特幣存於長期地址，交易所持幣量（即隨時可買賣的流通幣）持續減少——意味着更多幣進了冷錢包，減少短期拋售壓力。理論上，愈多非流動性比特幣被「鑽石手」鎖倉，愈能減輕暴跌。

3. Fundamental Utility and Adoption Curves: Each cycle, crypto has onboarded new users and expanded its infrastructure, but critics often noted that usage hadn’t caught up with valuation. By 2025, however, the fundamental underpinnings are stronger. Payment usage, while not yet mainstream, is growing (Lightning Network capacity hit new highs). Major financial institutions are building crypto services in response to client demand, indicating genuine utility. Even the Web3 and decentralized finance segments, which were speculative in 2021, have by 2025 produced some applications with steady user bases and revenue, such as decentralized exchanges and NFT marketplaces that survived the hype phase. Worldwide, roughly 420 million people were estimated to own crypto as of 2023, and that number keeps climbing. Importantly, some developing markets now rely on Bitcoin and stablecoins for everyday transactions and remittances (e.g. in parts of Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia), fulfilling some of crypto’s promised real-world use. If the value per coin is underpinned by a base of actual transactional and savings demand (e.g., as digital gold or as money in weaker-currency economies), it lends support to the idea that bitcoin’s price is not purely speculative. A formal model published by a researcher at the Dutch central bank (van Oordt, 2024) argued that as long as there is nonzero transactional demand for a cryptocurrency, there is a fundamental baseline value that is above zero – meaning Bitcoin isn’t a tulip-like bubble that could vanish entirely. The same study noted that prominent enthusiasts hail Bitcoin as the “flagship of a new asset class” and “digital gold”, suggesting it is increasingly viewed as having an established role. With PayPal enabling crypto for payments

4. 基本效用與採用曲線：每次週期，加密市場都吸納新用戶並擴展基礎設施，但批評者往往指出實際使用遠不及估值。2025年這個問題已有大幅改善，基礎因素明顯更紮實。支付應用雖未算主流但穩步增長（閃電網絡容量創新高），大型金融機構主動因應客戶需求開發加密服務，反映市場有真實效用。即使2021年時Web3及去中心化金融板塊大多偏向炒作，但2025年則有部分應用已養成穩定用戶基礎和收入，例如成功穿越熱潮的去中心化交易所及NFT市場。全球擁有加密貨幣人數2023年時估計約4.2億，持續增長中。更重要的是，部分發展中地區現時已依賴比特幣和穩定幣作日常交易、匯款用途（見於拉美、非洲及東南亞等地），部分兌現了加密的現實應用承諾。如果每枚幣的價值得到實際支付及儲蓄需求所支撐（例如作為數位黃金、或弱勢貨幣地區的貨幣），則加強比特幣價格並非純投機品的理論。荷蘭央行一名學者（van Oordt, 2024）發表模型，指出只要有非零的交易需求，加密貨幣就有一個高於零的基本底價——意味比特幣並不是一種可能歸零的鬱金香泡沫。該研究同時指出，支持者愈來愈將比特幣視為「新資產類別的旗艦」或「數位黃金」，角色逐步獲確立。PayPal 開通加密貨幣支付亦是例證。Sure! Here’s the translation with markdown links left untranslated, as requested:

而像薩爾瓦多這樣的國家自2021年起，已經將比特幣列為法定貨幣，這顯示這項資產的實際應用及網絡效應終於有望趕上市場價格。

3. 市場韌性及較細幅調整：直到2024年底至2025年，加密貨幣市場已經歷了幾次測試，放在以前的週期可能早已觸發更大規模的暴跌。舉例來說，當聯儲局於2024年12月暗示減息幅度少於預期，比特幣雖然一度下調（大約5-10%），但很快又在十萬美元附近企穩。同樣，在2025年初美中科技緊張消息傳出後，市場避險情緒令比特幣自高位回落近兩成，但在八萬多美元已獲得支持，並且幾星期內重拾升勢。這些20%的回調，在加密貨幣界來說被視為健康調整，而不是嚴重崩盤。對比2021年4月至7月，當時Elon Musk發表有關比特幣能源消耗的不利言論，加上中國監管憂慮，導致比特幣價格由六萬美元暴瀉一半至三萬美元。2025年的分別在於，現在買家往往落得更快，資金充裕的大戶對任何下跌訊號都積極吸納，反映大家對長線前景更有信心。Alex Krüger甚至呼籲：「不要再將今次週期和以前比較。」他指出像支持加密貨幣的美國政府等因素，「從來未試過這麼理想」，今個週期亦因此可能呈現新動態。他所提出的超級週期理論，就是即使會見調整，但未必會像2018或2022年那樣出現持續熊市。如果比特幣真的是每次週期中回落後都可以創新高，只會進一步印證了超級週期的說法。

4. 與黃金及其他超級週期比較：有分析師將之與其他資產過往的超級週期歷史作類比。例如Krüger提及的1970年代黃金牛市——美國脫離金本位後，黃金價格由1971年的每安士35美元，一路升至1980年接近850美元，期間沒試過回落至過往低位。當年推動因素包括高通脹和重估黃金價值（自由交易、投資需求爆發）。比特幣支持者認為類似的重估現正發生：比特幣已非邊緣科技玩物，正逐漸成為核心另類資產，用Larry Fink的話來說，就是「數碼化黃金」。如果真是這樣，比特幣價值可能會上升幾個級數（有些預測目標指20萬、甚至50萬甚至更高），然後在較高水平企穩，而未必又像以往般大幅崩潰。所謂大宗商品超級週期——通常用來形容長達數十年、因結構性需求而驅動（如中國2000年代的石油和金屬超級牛市），而相信廣泛區塊鏈應用大潮即將來臨的人，也將這個概念套用於加密貨幣。換句話說，加密貨幣可能正步入一個長期大牛市的新階段。這種說法雖然大膽，但如果你相信未來十年全球金融和交易會大量轉移至加密網絡，則並非完全無可能。在這個情況下，2020年代或會被回顧為加密貨幣由高波動新興科技轉變為數碼經濟主流骨幹的關鍵時期，屆時估值自然會維持高位，而非暴瀉。

5. 風險管理及監管清晰度提升：最後，市場結構及監管改善，可能減低過往大規模崩盤的連鎖風險。2022年之所以跌勢淪為災難，部分原因是大量高槓桿頭寸及如FTX、3AC、Celsius等企業的黑箱操作。這些漏洞現已大致被清理或緩解。全球監管機構——由美國到歐洲、亞洲——這幾年積極為加密交易所、穩定幣準備金等制定更清晰規則。來到2025年，主流交易所的風險管控明顯改善，而像2021年那些無抵押亂借貸的做法已大大減少。加密市場可順利度過2023至2024年，期間沒有出現大型交易所倒閉或類似Mt. Gox、FTX級數的黑天鵝，更加深了市場信任。與此同時，監管層面上，美國訂立穩定幣法案以確保發行方須持有等值資產、歐盟亦通過全面的MiCA規則，這些都令機構投資者敢於介入加密市場。隨著監管陰霾散去，市場或不會再因突如其來的政策收緊而驚嚇。眼下，焦點已轉為如何將加密貨幣納入現有金融體系，同時保持適當監督。這一切都顯示現在的市場環境比以往穩固得多。

這些因素令超級週期說法更加可信。截至2025年中，可以說眾多牛市的完美條件同時出現：貨幣寬鬆、政策支持、大眾認同、技術成熟，用戶基礎不斷擴大。如果說四年一度大調整的魔咒有機會被打破，可能就是現在。甚至連一些一向質疑加密貨幣的人都開始承認其長遠實力。資深策略師Shane Oliver，雖然仍然小心謹慎，但也坦言隨著接受度上升，比特幣「長遠來看很可能還有很大升幅」，即使會繼續大幅波動。而如前所述，Andrew Page更指出，比特幣不斷歷練更強，令它與典型泡沫的軌跡明顯不同。

不過，審慎的分析都應該同時認真檢視反方理據。每見一個利好旗號，質疑者總會給出反駁。2025年的升市表面之下，其實有什麼潛在裂縫？又有多少典型泡沫元素依然存在？為了持平起見，以下列出這一輪仍有可能只是另一場泡沫最終破滅的理由。

警號：為何它仍有可能只是「另一個泡沫」

儘管有不少正面發展，依然有不少分析師及資深投資者呼籲大家保持警覺。他們認為，不論是不是超級週期，2025年的加密市場仍然展示若干泡沫經常出現的特徵，而無視歷史模式實在危險，以下是值得質疑的主要理由：

1. 價格呈拋物線暴升、投機情緒熾熱：加密貨幣短時間內的瘋狂升幅，本身已經屬於紅燈。比特幣於幾個月內幾乎升了一倍（大約由大選前約六萬美元升至2025年中十二萬），整體加密市場總值亦暴增數萬億。這種爆炸式上升通常代表投機成分過重，投資者只追着動力炒賣。資深策略師Sean Callow亦指出，比特幣升穿新高階段「表現出極大的投機力量」。他說：「這種行情令我擔心」，警告靠炒作上升的行情一樣可以快閃兜頭掉頭。歷史證明，當所有人都以為只會升，失望短兵相接。在這輪周期內，都可見不少小型「泡沫」踪影——譬如2025年初迷因幣和邊緣代幣瘋狂炒高，有如過往泡沫。舉例，「迷因幣超級週期」炒作大行其道，無論PEPE還是新推的“TrumpCoin”，純靠社交媒體熱度便可暴升數千倍。OSL的一篇教學帖子亦指出，這些迷因幣炒作靠「社交媒體聲勢」、本身幾乎無內在價值或應用，造成「非常容易爆泡」的市場環境。這些現象雖然只存在市場一角，但明顯有過往頂峰極度躁動的影子（如2017年ICO狂潮，2021年dogecoin熱潮）。這說明投資者心理——害怕錯過（FOMO）及羊群效應——仍極有力將價格推高至遠超合理水平。若參與者大多不是因基本面信念而買，而只是因為價錢一路升，這正是一個典型泡沫徵兆。

2. 槓桿及風險行為無完全消失：雖然經歷2022年的爆煲清算後，業界表面上去了一些槓桿，但實情新形式槓桿及高風險交易照樣橫行，而且更加難以察覺。例如去中心化金融（DeFi）平台允許用戶槓桿借出加密抵押物，這類頭寸比大交易所傳統永續/保證金交易更難監察或量度。還有加密衍生品現象：比特幣期貨、期權、永續合約流動性極高，可大幅推升波幅。事實上，比特幣期貨持倉量2025年錄得新高，可見大量玩家仍愛用槓桿博上下。突如其來的市況逆轉，往往會引發連環爆倉，加劇跌市（過往幾次迷你閃崩就是這樣發生）。有批評者認為，所謂「機構資金」加入仍未改變加密成交主體是大量炒短線的散戶及操盤大戶。比如由十二萬扯回十萬的波幅，不少槓桿多單高位順利離場後低位再博，反而有遲來者會中了陷阱。相對傳統資產，加密貨幣的波幅依然異常巨大，說明價錢大升大跌都容易過火。當名投資者Jim Rogers一再直言比特幣「是個最終會爆煲的泡沫」，並說「我看不到這股升勢的基本支撐」，其實就是因為他過去無數週期復始中領略到瞬間暴升的圖表往往結局不佳。Rogers早於2025年初已警告，比特幣這一波升勢，「回調時會令很多人慘輸」。這些聲音提醒我們，即使市況反重力維持得比預期久，但「地心吸力始終會出現」。

3. 宏觀與流動性風險依然存在：支持市況的宏觀環境，隨時有機會逆轉。通脹，例如——

---is notoriously unpredictable. If price pressures surge or economic data forces central banks to tighten policy instead of loosen (for example, if the Fed pauses or reverses rate cuts due to renewed inflation concerns), the appeal of Bitcoin could wane and risk assets broadly might sell off. We saw a taste of this when the Fed in late 2024 was less dovish than hoped, which immediately knocked Bitcoin down a few percent. If by late 2025 inflation is still above targets, central bankers may turn hawkish, removing the punch bowl that’s helped fuel this rally. Additionally, liquidity from other sources could dry up: one must consider that 2020-2021’s bull run was significantly aided by massive fiscal stimulus and money supply growth (the “money printer go brrr” phenomenon Dan Held cited as a key supercycle factor). In 2025, we’re not in a pandemic stimulus environment; however, global liquidity has been rising partly due to China’s monetary easing and other factors. Should those dynamics change – say, if major economies decide to clamp down on excess liquidity or address asset bubbles – crypto could be directly impacted. Simply put, the crypto market still dances to the tune of global liquidity to a large extent. Any shock – a geopolitical crisis, a credit event in traditional markets, or even an internal crypto scare – could puncture confidence. It’s worth remembering that market sentiment can reverse faster than fundamentals. A speculative asset can fall 50% in a matter of weeks regardless of whether long-term fundamentals remain intact, purely because of a shift in mood or risk appetite. The bubble scenario is that something triggers a rush for the exits, and with so much paper wealth accumulated in a short time, that rush turns into an avalanche of selling.

（ notoriously unpredictable，充滿不可預測性。如果通脹壓力急升，或者經濟數據迫使央行收緊貨幣政策（例如美聯儲因再度通脹憂慮而暫停或逆轉減息），比特幣的吸引力可能會減弱，而風險資產亦有機會被大幅拋售。2024年底美聯儲立場冇預期中咁鴿，即時令比特幣掉咗幾個百分點，我哋都見識過。如果到2025年底通脹都仲高過目標，各國央行有可能會轉為鷹派，收拾一直推動升勢嘅「酒池肉林」。另外，其他資金來源嘅流動性都可能枯竭：大家要記住，2020-2021年牛市有唔少係靠大規模財政刺激同貨幣供應增長（Dan Held講嘅「money printer go brrr」現象都係超級周期一大主因）。去到2025年，我哋唔再處於疫情刺激環境，不過全球流動性都因中國放水同其他因素而上升。萬一呢啲局勢變咗——例如主要經濟體決定打擊過剩流動性或者對資產泡沫出手——加密貨幣市埸就會直接受到拖累。簡單講，crypto市埸喺好大程度仲係跟住全球流動性起舞。任何衝擊——地緣政治危機、傳統市場信用事件、甚至內部恐慌——都可能穿咗信心大氣球。記住，市況情緒可以比基本因素變得更快。投機資產可以喺幾個星期跌五成，唔理長遠基礎有冇變，只係因為人心或風險胃納轉咗風向。泡沫場景就係突然有人觸發逃亡潮，短時間積累咁多紙上財富，一齊走就變咗雪崩式拋售。）

4. Recurring Narrative of “This Time Is Different”: As discussed earlier, every cycle has its rationalizations for why previous boom-bust patterns no longer apply. Seasoned traders often view the phrase “this time it’s different” as among the most expensive words in finance. The supercycle thesis, in their eyes, might just be the 2024-2025 version of that perennial optimism. The Cointelegraph analysis noted, almost wryly, that the concept of “this cycle being different” has surfaced in every past bull market – and each time, it was proven wrong when a bear market followed. That track record suggests skepticism is warranted toward the latest supercycle claims as well. Perhaps the names and details change – today it’s “ETFs and nation-state adoption” instead of “ICOs and institutional adoption” – but the end result could still be a bubble popping once the narrative exhausts itself. The fact that people like Su Zhu (of 3AC) and others got it so wrong in 2021 is a humbling reminder that even insiders drinking the Kool-Aid can misjudge market gravity. Now in 2025, we hear prominent figures saying similar things about endless growth. Certainly, conditions differ, but human nature in markets doesn’t. Greed and fear cycle eternally.

（4. 「今次唔同」嘅循環故事：頭先提過，每一個週期都會自圓其說，話舊年嘅繁榮-崩潰規律唔再適用。老手交易員最驚聽到「今次唔同」呢幾個字，以為贏定，最後通常都係最貴嘅三隻字。超級周期論，佢哋眼中根本就係2024-2025年版嘅永恆樂觀主義。Cointelegraph分析都頗為幽默咁指出：「呢個周期真係唔同」呢句說法喺歷次牛市都講過，每次話完，熊市就嚟打臉。呢個紀錄話你知，大家都應該對最新一輪超級周期說法保持懷疑。改咗名，內容唔同咗——今時今日講「ETF同國家層面採納」，當年講ICOs同機構入場——但結局都可以係氣氛玩完就爆煲。3AC嘅Su Zhu同類人物2021年都估錯晒，淨係話明就算內部人都會錯估市場引力。去到2025年都仲有人話會不斷增長梗有著數。當然，環境唔一樣，人性就唔變。貪婪同恐懼喺市況輪迴永無休止。）

Skeptics also point to valuation concerns. While valuing crypto is tricky, one approach is to compare its market cap to the scale of problems it aims to solve or the adoption level. A $4 trillion market cap for crypto in 2025 begs the question: is the crypto economy, in terms of actual usage, anywhere near justifying that? For context, $4 trillion is roughly the size of Germany’s stock market or the GDP of a large country. Are crypto networks producing equivalent economic value? Some would argue not yet – much of that valuation is anticipatory. If that anticipated adoption or profit fails to materialize soon enough, valuations could be hit. Price-to-usage metrics (like market cap per active user or per transaction) are at very high levels for many cryptocurrencies, implying lofty expectations for future growth. That’s not inherently bad in a growth sector, but it is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble metrics, where companies were valued enormously relative to current users or revenues, under the assumption of eventual world-changing success. Many of those companies crashed when the growth outlook got adjusted to reality.

（懷疑派仲關注估值問題。Crypto點估值一向棘手，有一種方法就係攞佢嘅市值同佢想解決嘅問題規模或者用戶採納狀況做比較。2025年加密貨幣市值達到4萬億美元，咁大個問題：實際用量上，crypto經濟體真係 justify到咩？參考下，4萬億大概等於德國股市或一個大國嘅GDP。Crypto網絡產生緊同等價值咩？有啲人就話，暫時仲未——大部份市值都係預期性嘅。如果預期中嘅採納或利潤短期內唔見得兌現，估值可能會受挫。很多幣種見到市值與活躍用戶、每次交易比例達到歷史高位，即係市場對未來增長預期高企。呢啲喺增長行業唔一定係壞事，但就令大家諗起千禧年科網泡沫——公司估值比活躍用戶或者收入高咗好幾倍，全賭「改變世界」可以實現。當增長預期回落現實，唔少公司最後都爆煲。）

5. External and Regulatory Threats: While the regulatory environment is better than before, it’s not without risks. The U.S. crypto-friendly pivot could be reversed by a change in administration down the line or even by current policymakers if something goes awry (e.g., if a stablecoin implosion or major crypto-related fraud occurred, there could be public and political backlash). Globally, there are still major powers like China and India that maintain a hardline stance against unfettered crypto usage. Any severe action – like stricter enforcement on remaining offshore exchanges, or higher taxes on crypto gains (some countries have floated windfall taxes on crypto profits) – could puncture enthusiasm. Furthermore, one should consider technological risks: crypto is still a relatively young tech. What if a critical vulnerability or hack (beyond routine) occurred on a major blockchain? Or, looking further out, what if advances like quantum computing threaten cryptographic security? These are long-tail risks but feed into the uncertainty that typically keeps an asset from attaining “risk-free” status. In a bubble, such risks are often ignored by investors – until suddenly they aren’t, and everyone rushes to re-price the risk.

（5. 外圍同監管威脅：雖然監管環境比過往有所改善，但風險仍然存在。美國轉向親加密取態，有機會因為政權更替，甚至新舊政府本身出事（好似穩定幣崩潰或者大型加密騙案），即刻180度大反轉，引發公眾與政治反彈。國際層面，仲有中國、印度呢啲大國一向強硬反對不設限加密應用。任何嚴厲行動——例如再收緊海外交易所執法，或者加重加密收益稅（有啲國家仲建議向加密暴利徵稅）——都可以冷卻市場熱情。更進一步，技術風險唔可以唔理：Crypto本身仍然屬於新興科技。如果主要區塊鏈出現重大漏洞或黑客（不止小規模），點算？長遠啲，如果量子計算發展打擊加密安全又如何？呢啲雖然係「黑天鵝」，但永遠令人覺得加密資產始終唔係「零風險」資產。泡沫時期，大家通常當無事，直到有事，全世界一齊驚再將風險重新入價。）

6. The Wider Crypto Ecosystem’s Health: Bitcoin might be the star, but the crypto market’s stability also depends on key infrastructure and the health of other segments. The 2022 crisis taught us that even if Bitcoin itself chugs along, problems in crypto banks (lenders), exchanges, or stablecoins can drag the whole market down. In 2025, are we sure that, say, all stablecoins are fully stable? Tether (USDT), the largest stablecoin, remains somewhat opaque in its reserves, though it has operated without serious issue so far; any wobble there could cause panic due to Tether’s ubiquitous role in trading. DeFi protocols are another concern – they are still experimental and can be subject to exploits. A failure or loss of funds in a major DeFi platform could dent confidence broadly. And let’s not forget that altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum remain highly speculative. Many new tokens launched in 2023–25, especially in areas like metaverse or meme coins, could well approach near-zero if a downturn happens, just as thousands of ICO tokens did after 2018. If enough retail investors get burned on those, it could sour sentiment even on blue chips like Bitcoin, as happened before.

（6. 關於加密生態系統整體健康：比特幣梗係焦點，不過成個加密市場穩定與否都要睇住其他重要基建同板塊狀況。2022年危機教曉我哋：就算比特幣自己運作無問題，Crypto銀行（放貸）、交易所或者穩定幣出咗事都可以拖垮成個市埸。2025年，所謂全部穩定幣都真係穩定咩？最大隻穩定幣Tether（USDT）至今運作都冇大鑊，不過其儲備結構一向唔算透明；一跌wobble，即刻炒上恐慌，因為Tether交易份量實在太大。DeFi協議都係隱憂——仍然實驗性質，容易比人攻擊。大規模DeFi平台如果資金損失，信心都會通街下跌。仲有就是，除咗Bitcoin/Ethereum，其他Altcoin高度投機。2023-25出咗好多新幣，特別係Metaverse、meme coin範疇，跌市時隨時去返零，好似2018年ICO潮一樣。零售投資者如果連藍籌都輸怕，成個市埸氣氛都變差，已經發生過。）

Bringing these points together, the bearish view is essentially: Yes, the scenery changes, but the boom-bust cycle remains entrenched. The bigger they rise, the harder they fall. Every bubble has fundamental arguments that seem compelling (e.g., “the internet will revolutionize business” was true, yet dot-com stocks still crashed 90% in 2000 because they got ahead of themselves). Crypto’s transformative potential can be real, and still its market could overinflate and correct severely.

（綜合以上，悲觀角度特別係：無錯，劇本變化好大，但繁榮-崩潰循環係改唔甩嘅老毛病。升得愈高，跌得愈重。每一次泡沫，背後都有科學看似合理原因（例如「互聯網必定顛覆商業」確實中，但dot-com泡沫2000年都可以爆跌九成，因為個市走得太快）。Crypto改變未來有其潛力，但市價照樣可以吹到過頭，最後出現嚴重調整。）

Sean Callow, the FX analyst, encapsulated this balanced skepticism by acknowledging Bitcoin is on “sounder footing” now with diverse investors which “potentially limit the downside,” but “no doubt, if the price starts falling it could get very ugly”. In other words, improvements in the market may soften the blow, but won’t prevent a rout if a bubble does burst. It’s also possible that even staunch crypto believers expect a big correction as part of the game – they just think it will eventually recover. For example, some traders openly talk about taking profits at cycle highs and buying back in after a 50% drop, treating it as almost a given. If enough market participants operate this way, it can become a self-fulfilling cycle: when valuations feel stretched or a certain date nears (like late 2025, roughly a year after the halving, which some anticipate as a top based on the 4-year rhythm), many will start selling, creating the very correction they expect. That dynamic could replay unless or until proven otherwise.

（外滙分析師Sean Callow講得幾中肯——佢話而家比特幣擁有更多元投資者，大致上腳踏實地，「可能可以限制跌幅」，但「毫無疑問，如果市價真係轉勢可以跌得好核突」。換句說話，市場進步可能緩衝下，但一旦泡沫爆煲都擋唔到。事實上，連鐵桿信眾都預咗大幅調整係遊戲一部分，只係覺得會回升。例如有啲交易員直言會喺高位先食糊，等跌五成再入場，彷彿當咗理所當然。如果夠多人都咁諗，市場循環就真係自我實現——當覺得太貴或者有時間因素（例如2025年底，減半後約一年，根據四年周期好多人預計係頂位），大家都會賣貨，於是製造咗自己預期嘅調整。呢個情況只會不斷重複，直到真有突破為止。）

Lastly, the psychological factor cannot be understated. Crypto markets are heavily sentiment-driven. At $120k Bitcoin, a lot of optimism (and leverage) is arguably already priced in. If the majority of investors are bullish, the contrarian in traditional analysis would caution that the market might be ripe for a turn. And conversely, a true supercycle might only be evident in hindsight – it would mean climbing a “wall of worry,” not universal bullishness. So, seeing a robust debate (as we are doing here) is healthy. But if at any point you notice media and analysts in near-unison proclaiming a supercycle and dismissing the possibility of a crash, that could itself be a warning that euphoria is overtaking reason.

（最後，心理因素都唔可以少睇。Crypto市場極度情緒化。比特幣去到12萬美金，市場睇好情緒（同埋槓桿）已經大量反映喺價格度。如果絕大部分投資者都睇好，傳統反向分析就會話市埸隨時轉勢。反之，一個真正超級周期多數要事後回望先知——通常都要踏住「擔驚受怕」之牆，而唔係全城齊齊叫好。所以見到有咁多討論（好似而家咁）其實算健康。但萬一有一刻傳媒同分析員集體齊聲話超級周期嚟到，全無熊市可能，咁反而可能係瘋狂蓋過理智嘅警號。）

Conclusion: Supercycle or Bubble? A Bit of Both

Standing here in late 2025, with Bitcoin and crypto assets reaching heights once unimaginable, it’s clear that cryptocurrency has undergone an extraordinary journey. The question “supercycle or bubble?” doesn’t have a simple yes-or-no answer – and in fact, the evidence suggests elements of both. The current cycle has features that differentiate it from past booms, hinting at a market that is gradually maturing. At the same time, the DNA of volatility and speculative excess is very much alive in crypto, meaning sharp downturns cannot be ruled out.

On the supercycle side of the ledger, we have compelling signs of secular adoption and integration into the global financial fabric. Bitcoin’s recognition as a legitimate asset by major institutions (from BlackRock to nation-states) provides a foundation that simply didn’t exist in 2017 or even 2021. Structural demand – long-term holders, ETFs, corporate treasuries – is stronger than ever. The industry’s infrastructure is more robust, and regulatory clarity has improved in key markets, reducing some tail risks. There’s a

（## 結論：超級周期定泡沫？可能兩者皆有

嚟到2025年底，見到比特幣同加密資產達到以往難以想像嘅高度，好明顯加密世界經歷咗一場非凡旅程。「超級周期定泡沫？」呢條問題其實好難單純用「係」或「唔係」回答——事實上，坊間證據都指兩者元素都有存在。今輪周期確實有啲與過去牛市不同元素，暗示市場逐漸成熟。不過，加密貨幣內在波幅大、投機性強嘅DNA依然好明顯，所以急劇調整一樣難以排除。

以超級周期論者角度，有唔少現實證據證明加密資產逐步被廣泛接納同融入全球金融系統。比特幣得到大型機構認可（由BlackRock到國家層面都參與）打咗一個以前2017甚至2021年都冇嘅基礎。結構性需求——長揸者、ETF、企業資金池——都創新高。業界基建更加完善，主要市場監管都較清晰，減少咗唔少「黑天鵝」。）real argument to be made that crypto is too intertwined with the broader economy now to “go to zero” or vanish in a puff of tulips. Even skeptics like Dr. Shane Oliver concede that over time, as acceptance grows, crypto’s trajectory points upward despite interim jolts. And indeed, each cycle’s lows have been higher than the last, suggesting a stair-step pattern of growing global value attribution to crypto assets. It’s conceivable that the infamous 80% drawdowns of the past may moderate to, say, 30-50% pullbacks – painful, yes, but not catastrophic for long-term believers. This would align with the “recurrent corrections, no deep winter” scenario that supercycle proponents envision.

事實上，有一個好有力嘅論點認為，加密貨幣而家已經同整體經濟融為一體，唔可能再「歸零」或者好似鬱金香咁一夜消失。即使係懷疑派，例如Shane Oliver博士，都承認隨住接受度上升，加密貨幣嘅走勢長遠嚟講仍然向上，儘管會有短暫起伏。事實亦證明，每次週期低位都比上一次高，反映全球對加密資產價值嘅認同正逐步遞增。可以想像，以前出名80%嘅暴跌，將會漸漸趨於緩和，例如只回吐30-50%——雖然仍然辛苦，但對長線持有者嚟講未至於災難。呢個情景都同「重複修正、無嚴冬」嘅超級週期支持者預計嘅一致。

Yet, on the bubble side of the ledger, history’s echoes are loud. Every surge of this magnitude in any asset has eventually faced a reality check. Crypto’s culture still has a strong speculative streak – from meme coin crazes to leverage-fueled bets – which means the market can outrun itself. As much as things change, the core driver of bubbles is human psychology, and that hasn’t changed. Greed can flip to fear swiftly, and crypto’s high volatility means the unwinding, if it comes, can be violent. When veteran investors like Jim Rogers or economists like Nouriel Roubini look at Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, they see classic bubble behavior and warn that a day of reckoning awaits. It would be unwise to dismiss these warnings out of hand – after all, they’ve been right during previous busts, even if Bitcoin later recovered.

但另一方面，歷史對泡沫嘅警示好響亮。歷史上，任何資產咁規模嘅暴升最後都會被現實檢驗。加密圈文化仍然好重投機成分——由meme coin熱潮到高槓桿賭博——意思市場好容易自我脫軌。雖然時代變遷，泡沫背後主要驅動始終係人性——而人性無變。貪婪好快就會變成恐懼，加密幣波幅極大，如果爆破，回調可以好劇烈。像Jim Rogers咁嘅老牌投資者，或者Nouriel Roubini 這些經濟學家，望住比特幣高升，都睇成經典泡沫現象，同時警告清算嘅日子總會嚟。完全無視咁啲警告唔係明智——畢竟過去幾次爆破佢哋都冇錯（就算之後比特幣真係回升）。

In many ways, crypto in 2025 might be straddling a transition: evolving from a purely speculative niche into a more established asset class, but not quite there yet. This means we could continue to see bubble-like cycles, but perhaps their character will shift. Maybe the crashes won’t be as deep, and maybe the baseline value will keep rising, reflecting growing adoption. In other words, one could argue that crypto has been experiencing a series of bubbles that nonetheless form part of a long-term supercycle of growth. Each bubble, when it bursts, has left the industry not in ruins, but rather at a higher plateau from which the next growth phase begins. Andrew Page’s observation encapsulates this well: “So it might be a bubble. But it would be the biggest, most prolonged, most unusual bubble in history”. Crypto might be a continual bubble that refuses to pop for good – deflating and re-inflating as it climbs the adoption curve.

某程度上，加密貨幣去到2025年，係正處於轉型階段：由純投機小眾慢慢演變成較成熟嘅資產類別，但仲未完全達標。即係話，未來都可能仲會見到泡沫式週期，但佢哋嘅特性有機會有所改變。跌市未必再咁深，底線價值有機會持續上升，反映普及率提升。換句話講，有人覺得加密貨幣其實歷來都係經歷住一連串泡沫，但呢啲泡沫合起嚟，其實就推動緊一個長線嘅超級增長週期。每次泡沫爆破，行業唔係崩潰，而係去到更高台階，等下一輪增長由嗰度起步。Andrew Page總結得好：「可能係泡沫——但係歷來最大、最耐、最奇異嘅泡沫。」加密貨幣可能就係一個唔肯徹底破裂嘅常在泡沫——一邊放氣、一邊隨住應用曲線不斷充氣再升。

For the average crypto investor or enthusiast reading this in 2025, what does this all mean? Firstly, it’s a reminder to stay level-headed. Unbiased analysis demands acknowledging both the transformative potential and the speculative dangers. Yes, we may be witnessing something unprecedented – perhaps a global financial paradigm shift – but that doesn’t confer immunity to market cycles. Tempering expectations is wise: hope for a supercycle, plan for a bubble. That means diversifying, managing risk, and not over-leveraging on the assumption that prices only go up.

對2025年睇緊呢篇文嘅一般加密貨幣投資者或者愛好者嚟講，呢一切代表咩？第一，提醒自己要保持冷靜。客觀分析要同時承認市場革命性潛力同投機性風險。無錯，我哋可能見證住史無前例嘅局面——甚至係全球金融大轉型——但都唔代表市場週期失效。稍稍降低期望係明智做法：希望有超級週期，同時要預留泡沫爆破方案。意思即係要分散投資，做好風險管理，同千祈唔好以為價格只會升就過度槓桿。

Secondly, understand that in a sense, declaring victory or defeat on the supercycle question might be premature. If the market continues upward for an unusually long period (say, no major crash for five or more years), then in hindsight we’d say a supercycle was in effect. If a brutal bear market strikes in 2026, then this was “just another cycle” after all. At the moment, we are in the middle of the story, and “only time will tell” is more than a cliché here – it’s fact. As Brave New Coin aptly put it after analyzing the bullish rainbow chart scenario: the pattern might play out, but only time will tell. In investing and markets, humility in the face of uncertainty is a virtue.

第二，就某程度而言，現階段判斷超級週期已經勝出或失敗，可能太早。假如市場能夠異常長時間向上（例如五年或以上無大跌），到時回望就會承認真係超級週期。如果2026年嚟一個極兇狠熊市，其實都只不過係「又一個週期」。眼前，我哋都係處於故事中段，而*「唯有時間會證明一切」*唔只係客套話——而係事實。Brave New Coin 喺分析過彩虹牛市圖之後講得好啱：呢個格局真係會應驗，但都只得時間會告訴大家。投資同市場領域裡面，對不確定因素謙卑，永遠係美德。

In conclusion, the crypto market of 2025 stands at a crossroads of optimism and caution. It has matured impressively, battling its way into the portfolios of the global elite and the halls of power, suggesting a bright and perhaps more stable future. Yet, it also remains a young, sentiment-driven market where booms and busts are part of the DNA. Whether we are in a supercycle or a bubble is not an either/or verdict so much as a spectrum – and crypto might well occupy a middle ground. It’s a unique asset class that behaves like a bubble in the short term but has behaved like a revolutionary technology adoption story in the long term. As investors, journalists, and enthusiasts debate this very question, one thing is certain: crypto will continue to surprise us all. As the old saying (slightly adapted) goes, markets tend to do what hurts the most people. If most expect a bubble to burst, maybe the supercycle roars on longer than thought; if most buy into the supercycle narrative blindly, perhaps a harsh lesson awaits. The prudent path lies in staying informed, paying attention to the data (not just the hype), and preparing for multiple outcomes.

總結嚟講，2025年嘅加密貨幣市場正處於樂觀同謹慎之間嘅十字路口。佢進步飛快，成功打入全球精英資產組合同權力中樞，預示住前景光明甚至更穩定。不過，佢始終還係一個年輕、受情緒驅動嘅市場，暴升暴跌係天性。本質上，究竟我哋係處於超級週期定泡沫，並唔係二選一，而更似一個光譜——而加密貨幣可能剛好企喺中間。短線佢好似泡沫，長遠又似顛覆科技普及嘅故事。無論係投資者、記者抑或愛好者爭論呢條問題，有一點肯定：加密貨幣一定繼續令人意外。套用少少變奏版俗語：市場總係做出最傷最多人嘅嘢。如果大部份人預計泡沫爆破，可能超級週期反而更長壽；如果大家盲目相信超級週期，或許嚴酷教訓就喺前頭。最穩妥嘅路線，係持續學習，重視數據（唔好只聽炒作），預先準備多種可能。

Crypto’s 2025 edition cycle is writing itself into history books either way. Supercycle or not, it has already defied many expectations – and in doing so, has solidified its place in the financial world. Bubble or no bubble, crypto is still here. The coming years will reveal the next twist in this remarkable story. For now, eyes are on the market’s next move: will it maintain altitude and prove the supercycle believers right, or will gravity remind us that what goes up fast can come down just as fast? The only honest answer: stay tuned, stay prudent, and don’t forget to buckle up. In crypto, the one cycle that’s guaranteed is the cycle of learning. Each turn of the market teaches new lessons – and 2025 is giving us a masterclass in both exuberance and caution.

無論最終係咪超級週期，2025年嘅加密貨幣循環都已經寫入歷史。打破咗唔少預期，同時穩固咗佢喺金融世界嘅地位。泡沫也好、唔係泡沫也好，加密貨幣依然仲存在。未來幾年，呢個傳奇故事會有新一頁。暫時來講，所有目光集中市場下一步：係繼續高飛肯定超級週期支持者，定係被重力拉返落嚟證明升得快都會跌得快？唯一誠實嘅答案：繼續觀察，保持謹慎，記得繫好安全帶。喺加密世界唯一不變嘅週期——就係學習週期。每一轉市場，都有新一課；而2025年，俾咗我哋一堂關於樂觀同警惕嘅大師班。