比特幣於2025年下半年處於歷史最強位置。經歷2022年熊市，比特幣迎來驚人復甦。
到2025年中，比特幣不但完全收復過往跌幅，更一舉突破2021年底舊高位。2025年6月，BTC首次短暫升穿$110,000，更於主要交易所錄得約$112,000新歷史高位（ATH）。這個里程碑出現之際，市場樂觀情緒高漲，而一直期待嘅牛市似乎終於成真。到7月初，比特幣在突破新高後一直於六位數以上區間橫行（$106K–$108K）。大家現在最關心嘅問題係：今次牛市，比特幣可以升到幾高？
雖然市況極之利好，但經驗老到嘅交易員都明白，每次暴力上升最終都會帶來波動，每次牛市都會遇到阻力。不過，2025年推動比特幣升勢嘅基礎條件，比以往任何周期都明顯更強勁——而且更健康。受惠於新投資產品，機構資金流入創新高；鏈上數據顯示長線持有人積極吸納；宏觀經濟環境變化，亦令比特幣成為法幣動盪時吸引資產。總括而言，多重利好因素同步發酵，推高比特幣價格。有分析師形容「天時地利人和集齊」，投資者更加視之為對沖傳統貨幣風險工具。
重要嘅係，樂觀情緒並非純粹炒作，而係有根有據。大型金融機構及著名市場分析師公開發表2025年比特幣六位數價位預測。鏈上指標——由交易所存貨到巨鯨錢包活動——都指向市場屬健康吸納，而唔係泡沫。宏觀環境風向亦轉變——加息等過去對比特幣不利因素，反而變成支持BTC作「數碼黃金」嘅新理由。連監管機構呢個「不明因素」都慢慢清晰，有機會支持比特幣正式加入主流金融體系。
本文將會深入探討比特幣未來再創新高的主要預測與專家見解，聚焦短期（未來幾個月及2025年）同全年牛市大趨勢。我哋會引用權威加密分析同機構研究預測，分析其背後鏈上證據及宏觀條件。究竟今次牛市，比特幣理論上可以升到幾多？2025年是否有機會衝上$120K、$150K，甚至更高？有咩風險係投資者要注意？我哋將用數據及觀點，為大家帶來一個理性、全面（不盲目造勢而亦不避談超強牛市可能）嘅比特幣發展路向分析。
專家預測2025再創新高
多位重量級分析員和金融機構近期齊齊發表超牛預測，認為比特幣價位遠未見頂。好多專家都預計2025年BTC會創新一輪歷史高位，預測價格更遠超六位數。留意呢些預測唔止來自網上KOL，還包括全球大行、資產管理公司及資深加密市場研究人員。雖然具體目標價略有出入，但一致認為只要冇極度負面新因素，比特幣本輪市況會再登新高。
最受注目的預測之一，來自國際銀行渣打（Standard Chartered）旗下數碼資產研究團隊，一向對比特幣睇法極其樂觀。2025年4月，該行加密貨幣研究主管Geoff Kendrick於投資者報告中表示，比特幣短線有力達到$100,000，而2025年底有望升至約$200,000。佢甚至認為如無意外，長線有機會衝擊$500K（2028年前後），將比特幣比喻為新「數碼黃金2.0」，宏觀不明朗時吸引大量策略資金。值得一提，渣打早在2024年價位很低時已預言BTC會升到$100K，而2025進度更超預期，現時甚至表示先前訂立嘅2025年中$120K目標「可能太低」。比特幣6月突破$110K後，Kendrick重申「一切向比特幣有利」，認為$120K屬合理短線目標，假如氣勢持續，$200K有望成今年頂點。
其他機構同樣樂觀。資產管理巨頭VanEck（環球千億資產）預期2025年比特幣「浪頂」可達$180,000，並預計牛市走勢會呈「雙頂」：2025上半年一波升至約$180K，之後中期回調，年底再創新高。這跟過去類似（如2013年出現兩輪升浪，2021年中段也有回調再爆升）。ARK Invest（Cathie Wood主理，長線科網投資見稱）則宣布比特幣長遠前景極樂觀。其研究團隊預測BTC至2030年基礎價可達$1,200,000，牛市極致推測更達$2,400,000。雖然ARK未明確料2025價位，但依此推算，比特幣屆時將穩企多十萬至廿多萬區間。這些數字聽落瘋狂，不過ARK以多重市場（全球匯款、機構投資組合等）逐步佔領為理據。即使ARK假設最差「熊市」情況，2030年價值亦有$500K，顯示長線機構極有信心。
如果只看近年，金融比較平台Finder.com定期邀請50位加密業內專家及學界預測比特幣未來價位。最新民調結果，平均認為2025年底BTC價格約$161,000；雖然目標價由淡到極牛，但均值突破$160K，代表六位數趨勢獲業界普遍認同。（$160K比2021年$69K的上周期高位高出2.3倍。）Finder專家組亦估2030年平均價約$405,000，顯示比特幣成長故事遠未完結。
華爾街多間研究部都明言支持6位數目標。著名投資研究公司Bernstein分析師為2025年末設定$200,000目標，形容這數字已經屬「高信心但保守」。Bernstein團隊由Gautam Chhugani領導，出具詳盡「比特幣黑皮書」，指在全球政府債務膨脹及貨幣寬鬆時代，比特幣固定供應同主流接受度上升，為估值大升提供充分理據。佢地甚至認為隨著機構採用速度及「數碼黃金」故事加快，$200K可能都太低。同樣，主力科技同加密版塊的國際行H.C. Wainwright預測BTC於2025年末有望漲至約$225,000，根據歷史走勢同政策利好。加密資產管理人Galaxy Digital（研究主管Alex Thorn）更曾於比特幣未升穿$100K時預測，2025年上半年會破$150,000，下半年則有可能衝上$180,000–$185,000，如今預測極有機會兌現。
當然，市場上既有更加進取的「瘋狂」預測，也有較保守聲音。著名Stock-to-Flow模型創作者PlanB稱比特幣可於2025年末飆到$1,000,000，但前提是多種假設如美國2024大選後全面親加密，政策配合等。他認為如果美國政府態度友善（令「加密貨幣戰爭」結束），2025年初BTC可先飆$200K，年底再因恐慌性FOMO推上百萬。大多數分析師認為如此瘋狂升幅難以成真——有交易員甚至笑言「要真係到$1M都要裸跑」，襯托部分市場極端牛市信念。比較務實但仍看好升勢的，尚有資深宏觀投資者Dan Tapiero，他指隨著比特幣滲透全球市場，2025年升至$300,000絕對有可能，尤其當供應有限、需求爆升、牛市進入狂熱期時。 long-time crypto evangelists like Tim Draper (who infamously predicted $250K BTC by 2023) continue to hold that quarter-million dollar target, albeit with their timelines pushed out a couple more years.
像Tim Draper這類長期加密貨幣推廣者（曾經大膽預言比特幣2023年會到達25萬美元）仍然堅持這個二十五萬美元的目標，雖然他們已將預期時間表推遲多幾年。
On the more conservative side, a handful of analysts caution that Bitcoin may not vastly exceed its previous ATH or could face a ceiling well below the rosiest projections. For example, some traditional market strategists argue that if economic conditions worsen (say, a recession hits), investors might rotate away from speculative assets, limiting Bitcoin’s upside. However, such conservative takes (e.g. targeting Bitcoin “only” at $80K–$100K) have lately been drowned out by the strong upward price action and improving fundamentals. Even traditionally cautious institutions like JPMorgan have acknowledged Bitcoin’s upside potential – JPM’s analysts in late 2023 suggested a long-term equilibrium price of around $45K based on mining production costs and gold parity metrics, but clearly the market has overshot that already in this bull run. The majority of forecasts as of mid-2025 center around Bitcoin reaching the high five-figures to low/mid six-figures in this cycle (roughly $120K–$200K), with a growing number of credible voices bracing for the possibility of the upper end of that range. In other words, new all-time highs seem not just likely but virtually assured if current trends hold – and we may only be seeing the beginning of Bitcoin’s next ascent.
保守一點的分析師則提醒，比特幣未必能大幅突破過往高位，甚至可能在最佳預測之下遇到較低的頂部。例如，有傳統市場策略師指出，如果經濟環境轉差（例如經濟衰退），投資者可能會轉離投機性資產，限制比特幣的上升空間。不過，這些保守觀點（例如只看比特幣去到8萬至10萬美元）近期已被強勁升勢與基本面改善的聲音所蓋過。連一向審慎的摩根大通亦承認比特幣有明顯上升潛力——該行分析師在2023年底根據開礦成本與黃金等值認為長期平衡價約為4.5萬美元，但今輪牛市明顯已超出這水平。至2025年中，大部分預測都集中於比特幣今輪週期有望見到高五位數至低/中六位數水平（大約12萬至20萬美元），更有愈來愈多具公信力人士預備應對區間上限的可能。換句話說，只要現時趨勢持續，不單創新高極有可能，甚至幾乎無可避免——這可能只係比特幣下一波升浪的開始。
It bears emphasizing, though, that these predictions are not guarantees. Bitcoin’s historical volatility means the path to any target – bullish or bearish – can be jagged. Analysts attach various caveats to their forecasts: continued institutional adoption must materialize, macro conditions should remain favorable, and no shock regulatory moves should undercut demand. In the next sections, we will delve into the data and developments underpinning the bullish outlook, as well as the risk factors that could change the narrative. From on-chain accumulation patterns to interest rate trends and ETF flows, we’ll examine why so many experts are calling for higher highs – and what signs might warn that those expectations need recalibration.
但值得強調的是，這些預測絕非保證。比特幣一向波動大，無論目標升定跌，中間路徑都可能崎嶇。分析師的預測都附帶各種前提：機構投資繼續入場、宏觀環境維持有利、並且無重大監管打擊需求。下面幾節，我們會深入探討現時牛市預期背後的數據和發展，同時分析可能轉變走勢的風險因素。由鏈上資金累積、利率趨勢到ETF資金流向，我們會探討為何這麼多專家預期比特幣再創新高——以及有哪些訊號可能提醒我們要調整期望。
On-Chain Metrics Show Strong Holder Conviction
鏈上數據反映持有人信心強勁
If the lofty price forecasts for Bitcoin are to come true, they must be supported by equally robust on-chain fundamentals. Indeed, one reason analysts remain confident about this bull market is that blockchain data reveals healthy dynamics underpinning Bitcoin’s price rise. Rather than a flimsy rally fueled purely by leverage or hype, the 2024–2025 uptrend appears to be built on genuine accumulation by long-term investors, a constrained supply of coins available for sale, and improving network usage metrics. These on-chain signals suggest that Bitcoin’s current price strength has a solid foundation – arguably more solid than during the manic run-up of 2017 or even the stimulus-driven rally of 2021.
如果比特幣這些高價目標要成真，必須有堅實的鏈上基本面支持。事實上，分析師對本輪牛市信心十足的其中一個原因，就是區塊鏈數據顯示比特幣升浪背後具備健康動力。2024–2025年的上升趨勢，似乎不是單靠槓桿或炒作，而是由長線投資者真金白銀實質累積、現貨供應受限、網絡使用數據改善所推動。這些鏈上訊號顯示，比特幣現時的價位有穩固基礎——甚至可說比2017年瘋狂升市和2021年靠寬鬆政策刺激的升浪更紮實。
A key trend is the pronounced accumulation by large holders (or “whales”) over the past year. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode and others report that big investors have been steadily buying into this rally and stashing coins away, rather than looking to trade out quickly. In fact, wallets holding extremely large balances – on the order of 10,000 BTC or more – showed a strong accumulation trend in recent months, approaching the maximum value on Glassnode’s scale (an “accumulation trend score” near 1.0). Such wallets, often belonging to crypto institutions, exchanges, or ultra-high-net-worth individuals, were net buyers even as Bitcoin crossed $70K, $80K, and $100K thresholds. Entities holding 1,000–10,000 BTC (smaller whales like family offices or fund managers) similarly added to their positions, indicating broad conviction among deep-pocketed investors. “So far, large players have been buying into this rally,” Glassnode noted – a stark contrast to late 2021, when on-chain data showed whales distributing BTC to newcomers near the top. The implication is that smart money believes the current prices are justified and potentially just the beginning, rather than an opportunity to dump.
其中一個關鍵趨勢，是過去一年大型持有人（或稱「鯨魚」）明顯地累積比特幣。區塊鏈數據分析公司Glassnode等指出，大戶正持續入貨並將比特幣存放，並無急於獲利套現。事實上，持有超過一萬枚比特幣的巨鯨錢包，近月累積趨勢極強，接近Glassnode累積指數的最高值（即接近1.0分）。這些錢包，多數屬於加密機構、交易所或超高淨值人士，他們即使在比特幣突破70K、80K、100K美元關口時，仍然淨買入。持有1,000–10,000枚的次級鯨魚（如家族辦公室或基金經理）亦一樣加碼，顯示大資金投資人普遍信心很強。正如Glassnode所說，目前大玩家都係趁升市買貨——情況與2021年底形成鮮明對比，當時鏈上數據顯示鯨魚在高位將籌碼分派給新手。這意味著聰明錢認為現價合理，而且可能只是升勢開始，而非短線趁高離場。
In tandem, the supply of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges has been dropping, which is usually a bullish indicator. When investors move coins off of trading platforms and into cold storage or wallets, it typically signals an intent to hold rather than sell (since coins on exchanges are the ones readily available for liquidation). During the first half of 2025, Bitcoin outflows from centralized exchanges hit a two-year high according to on-chain monitoring. Heavy outflows have been observed week after week – essentially, more BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited. In practice, this means investors are securing their Bitcoin in long-term storage, reducing the liquid supply in the market. A shrinking exchange supply creates a kind of supply crunch: if demand remains strong or grows, fewer coins are immediately available for purchase, which can exacerbate upward price moves. It’s the classic scenario of too many dollars (or stablecoins) chasing too few satoshis. Glassnode data confirms that the total BTC balance held on all exchanges is near multi-year lows, while the proportion of BTC that hasn’t moved in over a year is at an all-time high – reflecting a “HODLer” mentality reigning supreme.
同時，儲存在交易所的比特幣供應量亦不斷下降，這通常屬利好訊號。當投資者將比特幣提走到冷錢包或個人錢包，而非留在交易所，通常代表他們打算長線持有多於短線沽貨（因為交易所入面的幣最容易被賣出）。鏈上監測顯示，2025年上半年比特幣流出中心化交易所的數量創下兩年新高——連續多個星期都是資金流出，多於流入。換言之，愈來愈多BTC被鎖定在長線儲存，令市面可流通的供應減少。交易所供應收縮會引發「供應危機」：只要需求維持甚至增長，可立即買入的比特幣愈來愈少，價格自然更容易抽升。這就係典型「太多美元（或穩定幣）追太少satoshis」的情景。Glassnode數據證實，全網交易所持有的BTC總量降到多年低位，而一整年無移動過的BTC比例則創新高——反映「HODL」心態主導市場。
Other metrics underscore this picture of strong holder conviction. One such metric is the Realized HODL Ratio or the degree of profit-taking happening on-chain. Thus far into 2025, there are relatively muted signs of long-term holders rushing to take profits en masse, despite Bitcoin trading well above its previous ATH. Many early investors appear content to keep holding, perhaps anticipating much larger gains ahead. Additionally, network data like active addresses and transaction counts have been trending upward modestly, not in a speculative frenzy but in a steady growth pattern indicative of organic adoption. Bitcoin’s hash rate (a measure of total mining power securing the network) has also consistently notched new highs through the past year, reflecting continuous investment in network infrastructure and confidence in the protocol’s future. A rising hash rate historically correlates with positive sentiment and price, as it implies miners are bullish enough to deploy more machines – a costly long-term bet on Bitcoin.
其他指標亦進一步印證了持有人信心堅定。例如Realized HODL Ratio（實現HODL比率）或鏈上獲利了結程度。到2025年為止，雖然比特幣遠高於舊高位，但見唔到長線持有人大規模急於平倉。早期投資者普遍樂於繼續持貨，可能是預計有更大升幅。此外，網絡活躍錢包地址和交易數量持續溫和上升，並非瘋狂炒作，而是反映自然用量逐步增長。比特幣的算力（即網絡總挖礦能力）在過去一年同樣維持創新高，反映礦工在基建和協議前景持續加大投資。算力上升傳統上與市場正面情緒和價格相關，因為如果礦工夠膽大灑錢新增設備，等於對比特幣有信心，是一種昂貴的長線賭注。
Crucially, the current bull run does not exhibit the same excesses in leverage that preceded some previous tops. During the 2021 rally, for instance, on-chain and market data showed extremely high open interest in Bitcoin futures and frequent spikes in funding rates (the cost of holding long positions), signaling a market heavily driven by speculative derivatives. In 2025 so far, futures funding rates have been mostly neutral or even slightly negative, implying that there isn’t an overcrowded long trade. This cautious or even skeptical positioning by short-term traders can paradoxically be fuel for further upside – since there isn’t a huge buildup of over-leveraged longs to liquidate, each incremental price rise can force more sidelined capital to jump in (the classic “wall of worry” that bull markets climb). The relatively low leverage also means that volatility spikes (while still present) have been less catastrophic; Bitcoin has managed to hold key support levels during pullbacks, with shallow retracements compared to the violent 30-40% swings it sometimes saw in prior cycles. From a technical perspective, BTC remains comfortably above its major long-term moving averages, and momentum oscillators like the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) have stayed in healthy ranges without flashing extreme overbought conditions. All these signs point to a rally that, while powerful, is not yet exhibiting the hallmarks of a terminal blow-off top.
更重要的是，今輪升市暫時未見以往高位前的過度槓桿。以2021年為例，鏈上和市場數據顯示比特幣期貨未平倉合約極高，資金費率（即開多倉的持倉成本）頻頻抽升，反映是一個被衍生工具炒作推動的市場。但至今2025年，大部分期貨資金費率屬於中性甚至輕微負數，代表並無大量擠迫的長倉。這種短炒交易員的審慎、甚至懷疑態度，反而可能成為進一步向上的燃料——因為市場並未有大量高槓桿多單待爆，每次升幅都有機會迫使場外資金追入（即所謂「牛市爬牆」的典型特徵）。槓桿比率較低，同時令波幅雖然仍然存在，但沒有從前那種災難性的急插；比特幣回調時亦能守穩主要支持位，回吐幅度普遍較上一兩個週期那種動輒三四成的巨震為淺。技術層面看，BTC仍站穩其主要長線平均線之上，動能指標如每日RSI（相對強弱指數）都維持健康區間，暫未見極度超買的警號。所有跡象都顯示，今次雖然升勢強勁，但尚未出現終極尖頂（blow-off top）的典型徵狀。
As a case in point, consider the sentiment among longer-term participants: Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs)** – typically defined as addresses that haven’t moved their BTC in 155 days or more – are historically the smart, patient money in the ecosystem. These LTHs now control roughly three-quarters of the total Bitcoin supply, and their spending behavior is minimal despite prices being at record highs. Many of them accumulated during the bear market sub-$30K and even during the turmoil of late 2022, giving them very low cost bases. Rather than cashing out, these cohorts often appear to be looking toward much higher valuations as their cue to sell. We even see evidence of retail investors transferring coins to cold wallets, indicating that even newer market entrants are opting to hold for the long term instead of engaging in short-term trading. This was echoed by Bitwise Asset Management’s analysis in July 2025, which noted that Bitcoin had “been in an accumulation phase” since its last record high, with retail investors effectively selling into the hands of institutions who happily absorbed the supply. According to Bitwise’s analyst Juan Leon, that trend of weak hands passing coins to strong hands is now largely complete, removing a source of overhead sell pressure. Simultaneously, “market expectations for Fed rate cuts are ratcheting up, which is driving risk-on sentiment in BTC,” Leon said – a point we’ll explore more in the macro discussion. The takeaway on the on-chain side is that Bitcoin’s network fundamentals and investor behavior align with the bullish narrative: coins are held tightly by confident investors, supply is growing scarcer relative to demand, and there are few signs of the kind of irrational exuberance or leverage that precede major market reversals. This doesn’t eliminate the possibility of corrections – they are inevitable in any bull market – but it suggests that dips may continue to be bought aggressively by those who have been waiting for an entry. As long as these conditions persist, they form a supportive backbone for Bitcoin’s
舉一個明顯例子，就是長線參與者的心態：比特幣長期持有人（LTHs）一般定義為超過155日未動過的錢包地址，傳統上被視為生態圈內最有耐性、最精明的資金。這批LTH目前掌控著大約全體比特幣供應的四分之三，而且即使市場價創新高，他們的拋售行為仍然十分有限。當中不少早已在牛市前於3萬美元以下，甚至2022年尾混亂時候吸納，所以成本極低。他們並無趁高全身而退，反而似乎等更高估值出現時才考慮沽貨。零售投資者較明顯地將幣提去冷錢包，顯示即使新入市者亦多數選擇長線持有，而非短炒。Bitwise Asset Management於2025年7月分析亦有同樣發現，指比特幣自上次創高位後一直處於累積期，散戶將籌碼沽給樂於承接的機構。據Bitwise分析師Juan Leon所說，「弱手完結將幣交給強手」的趨勢現在基本上已經告一段落，意味著多了一重賣壓的減退。同時，「市場對於聯儲局減息的憧憬不斷升溫，推高比特幣的風險偏好」，Leon補充——這一點我們會在宏觀主題繼續討論。總括來說，鏈上層面的觀察是，比特幣的網絡基本面和投資者行為切合牛市故事：現貨由有信心投資者把持，供應愈來愈緊俏，亦未見重大過度興奮或槓桿徵狀。雖然不等於不會有調整（任何牛市都必然有），但這意味着，每次回調好大機會都會被等待入市的資金積極承接。只要這些條件持續，就會為比特幣形成一個有力的支持後盾price as it seeks new all-time highs.
現時，價格正朝著創下新高的方向進發。
Macro Tailwinds: Interest Rates, Inflation, and the New Digital Gold
宏觀有利因素：利率、通脹與「新數碼黃金」
Beyond the crypto-specific metrics, one cannot overstate the role of macroeconomic conditions in Bitcoin’s 2025 ascent. In fact, many analysts attribute Bitcoin’s renewed rally in large part to a seismic shift in the macro backdrop compared to the headwinds of 2022. Back then, surging inflation and an aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve tightening cycle created a risk-off environment that punished stocks and crypto alike. Bitcoin, often described as an uncorrelated asset, proved quite correlated to monetary conditions – it fell from $69K to $16K as the Fed hiked interest rates at the fastest pace in decades. However, by late 2023 and into 2024, signs emerged that inflation was cooling and that the Fed was approaching the peak of its rate increases. The mere anticipation of a Fed pivot (i.e. stopping rate hikes and eventually cutting rates) helped spark a broad recovery in risk assets. As investors sniffed out an end to monetary tightening, liquidity cautiously flowed back into equities and crypto. By 2023’s end, Bitcoin had bottomed and begun climbing, and in 2024 it accelerated as the worst macro fears abated.
撇除加密貨幣本身的數據，宏觀經濟環境對比特幣在2025年的升勢同樣發揮了舉足輕重的作用。其實，好多分析師都認為，今次比特幣的反彈，很大程度上係因為宏觀背景同2022年時候出現重大轉變。當時，通脹飆升，加上美國聯儲局激進加息，令市況轉為避險，股票同加密貨幣一齊受壓。比特幣成日俾人形容為「非相關資產」，但事實証明，佢都好受貨幣政策影響——聯儲局以幾十年最急速的節奏加息期間，比特幣由$69K跌到$16K。但去到2023年尾到2024年，通脹開始有降溫跡象，聯儲局亦接近加息周期頂峰。就連市場預期聯儲局「轉向」（即停止加息甚至減息），已經令大量風險資產出現廣泛反彈。投資者發現貨幣緊縮接近尾聲，資金便陸續重投股票同加密貨幣。到2023年尾，比特幣見底回升；去到2024年，隨住最惡劣的宏觀預期消退，升勢更加明顯。
Fast forward to mid-2025, and the macro narrative has flipped to one that strongly benefits Bitcoin’s investment thesis. Most importantly, the era of relentless Fed rate hikes is over. The U.S. central bank has shifted to a holding pattern and even delivered its first rate cuts since the pandemic era, as economic growth slowed and inflation came under control. Lower interest rates tend to increase the appeal of risk-on assets – they make bonds and savings less attractive in real terms and push investors out the risk curve in search of returns. “In general, high interest rates scare investors away from riskier investments like crypto, and the lowering of rates will be seen as a positive,” one finance expert explained. This dynamic played out vividly: “When rates began to top, crypto prices bottomed and then rose in 2023 and throughout 2024,” noted Bankrate, adding that the prospect of Fed easing and the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs helped boost both Bitcoin and Ethereum during this period. By 2025, with rate cuts either underway or on the horizon, the liquidity environment is far more favorable for Bitcoin. Cheap borrowing costs and abundant liquidity can funnel more capital into speculative or alternative investments, and Bitcoin has been a prime beneficiary of that shift.
跳去2025年中，宏觀故事已由阻力變成助力，大大加強比特幣的投資論點。最關鍵一點，聯儲局無止境加息的時代告終。美國央行已經轉為觀望，更自疫情後首次減息——係經濟增長放緩、通脹受控之下。減息一般會令風險資產更吸引——實質令債券同儲蓄回報變得平平，令投資者被迫搵高回報資產。一位金融專家形容：「一般嚟講，高息會嚇怕投資者避開高風險投資，例如加密貨幣；減息則被視為利好。」事後點證：Bankrate指出「當加息見頂，加密貨幣先見底，之後2023年至2024年都升返上去」。佢又補充，聯儲局放寬及比特幣ETF推出，令比特幣同以太坊都受惠。去到2025年，減息進行中或可預期，資金環境明顯有利比特幣，低息及充裕流動性令投機或另類資產吸資，比特幣正係最大受惠者。
Another macro factor is inflation itself. While headline inflation has receded from its 2022 peaks, it remains elevated in a historical context in several major economies. Moreover, the extraordinary levels of government debt and fiscal deficits have stirred concerns about long-term currency debasement. It’s here that Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” or an inflation hedge has gained significant traction. Savvy investors are increasingly looking at Bitcoin as a hedge against the risk of fiat currency depreciation – not necessarily day-to-day price inflation, but the broader erosion of purchasing power that can result from central banks printing money to service massive debt loads. In a note to Decrypt, Strahinja Savic of FRNT Financial observed that many are buying Bitcoin “as a hedge against the uncertainties that plague fiat currencies.” He pointed to the “unsustainable” fiscal situation in the U.S., where debt-to-GDP levels are soaring and political appetite for austerity is nil. This resonates with Bitcoin’s core value proposition: a decentralized asset with a hard-capped supply (only 21 million will ever exist) that cannot be inflated away by any government. Savic concluded that for Bitcoin’s proponents, the current global macro environment – rife with deficit spending, high debt, and questionable monetary stability – is “exactly why they would have bought the asset in the first place”. It’s a validation of the digital gold thesis that seemed to falter in 2021–2022 but is now reasserting itself.
另一個宏觀因素，就係通脹本身。雖然全球通脹已由2022年高位回落，但放諸歷史大環境，世界好多主要經濟體通脹仲處於較高水平。同一時間，政府債務和財赤創新高，引起各界對長遠貨幣貶值嘅憂慮。就係呢個時候，比特幣「數碼黃金」同抗通脹資產呢段論述，開始大行其道。精明投資者越來越多地視比特幣為防範法定貨幣貶值（唔一定係每日物價通脹，而係廣義購買力下降——即央行為償還巨債而瘋狂印錢）嘅對沖工具。FRNT Financial嘅Strahinja Savic就同Decrypt講，好多人買比特幣「主要係想對沖法幣充斥嘅不確定性」。佢又話美國而家嘅財政狀況「不可持續」，債務對GDP比例爆升，無乜人有興趣節流。呢啲都扣連返比特幣最初的賣點——一種去中心化、供應上限（只會有2,100萬個）、政府無得亂印嘅資產。Savic總結話，對一眾支持者嚟講，而家全球充斥財赤、巨債同貨幣穩定難保「正正係當初他們會買比特幣的原因」。呢個「數碼黃金」論點，2021–2022年一度受質疑，如今再次獲得認同。
Indeed, we’ve seen tangible examples of Bitcoin behaving as a safe-haven asset alongside or even in place of traditional hedges. A striking scenario unfolded in 2025 when renewed trade war fears (stemming from U.S. tariff announcements) rattled stock markets. On news of potential tariffs and other geopolitical jitters, the S&P 500 stock index pulled back and even gold ticked up slightly – but Bitcoin surged in that same window. As Decrypt reported, “with the tariff announcements, you saw the S&P 500 go down while Bitcoin went up,” reinforcing the idea that BTC is increasingly seen as “digital gold” by investors seeking refuge from macro turmoil. Around the world, various geopolitical and economic anxieties (from the war in Ukraine to unrest in the Middle East) have also underscored Bitcoin’s appeal as an asset uncorrelated to any single nation’s fate. “Beyond the U.S., there is no shortage of geopolitical and macro anxieties… In this context, a new digital, scarce, peer-to-peer asset outside the control of any one government simply resonates with investors,” Savic noted, referring to Bitcoin’s rising profile as a global safe haven. This narrative has been bolstered by the fact that younger investors and tech-savvy populations might prefer Bitcoin over gold – a trend that could shift trillions in store-of-value demand from precious metals to crypto over time.
事實上，近年有幾次例子都見到比特幣作為避險資產（甚至取代傳統避險資產）嘅角色。2025年有一幕幾經典，就係美國宣佈加徵關稅，引發新一波貿易戰疑慮、搞到股市大震。關稅同其他地緣政治消息出街後，S&P 500即刻回落，甚至連黃金都有小升——但比特幣短時間竟然急升。Decrypt都報導：「關稅新聞一出，S&P 500跌咗，但比特幣反而升。」呢個現象進一步加強「數碼黃金」的地位——愈來愈多投資者遇到宏觀風險時選擇用BTC避險。無論係烏克蘭戰爭、還是中東動亂，各地地緣及經濟不安，都令比特幣作為「與任何單一國家無關」資產的受歡迎程度大大提升。Savic又話：「美國之外，仲有大量地緣政治及宏觀不明朗……喺呢個大環境下，一個無政府能控制、全球限量、點對點的數碼資產，自然更加吸引投資者。」而且，年輕投資者及科技圈對比特幣的偏好，都可能令未來數以萬億計的避險需求由貴金屬轉去加密貨幣。
On the flip side, risk appetite more broadly has improved as recession fears diminished in 2024 and early 2025. Strong (if uneven) economic growth, especially in the tech sector, created a risk-on mood that lifted stocks and crypto in tandem. Bitcoin’s correlation with equities, particularly high-growth tech stocks, has been noted by analysts: when the Nasdaq booms, Bitcoin often isn’t far behind. By 2025, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 posting solid gains (the S&P was up 24% in 2023 and continued climbing in 2024), investors grew more comfortable venturing into crypto again. There is also the notion of Bitcoin as a “risk asset with a twist” – it rallies in liquidity-rich, confidence-driven environments like stocks do, but it also has hard-asset properties that can shine in stagflationary or crisis scenarios. In 2025 we have interestingly seen both aspects: Bitcoin climbing alongside stocks during bullish periods, but also decoupling and rising during certain periods of equity weakness when that weakness stemmed from currency or sovereign credit concerns. This unique behavior is gradually convincing traditional portfolio managers that a small allocation to Bitcoin can be a valuable diversification. As ARK Invest highlighted, emerging market investors facing currency depreciation or capital control threats are increasingly turning to Bitcoin as a store of value. And domestically in the U.S., we’ve witnessed corporate treasuries (more on that later) and even municipalities discuss Bitcoin as an inflation-resistant reserve asset.
另一方面，隨著經濟衰退憂慮於2024年及2025年初消退，整體風險胃納都明顯改善。經濟增長（尤其是科技業）雖不平均，但依然強勁，形成整體偏向冒險的氛圍，股票同加密貨幣一同被推高。分析師發現，比特幣與美股（特別係科網股）高度相關：納斯達克升市，比特幣好多時都唔會蝕底。去到2025年，納指同S&P 500都錄得顯著升幅（S&P 2023年升24%，2024年都繼續走高），投資者敢於再次嘗試加密幣。另外，比特幣又有「新奇發展」——在資金充裕、市場信心足夠的環境下佢會像股票咁爆升，但同時又有硬資產屬性，在滯脹或危機時特別有優勢。2025年，我哋見到兩種情況都出現過：比特幣會隨股票牛市一起升，同時在某些股市疲弱（但源於貨幣或主權信貸問題）階段出現背馳、獨自上升。呢種獨特行為漸漸令傳統投資組合經理接受，適量持有比特幣可提升組合多元化。ARK Invest亦提過，新興市場投資者面對貨幣貶值或資本管制威脅，愈來愈多轉向比特幣作避險。而喺美國本土，都見到越來越多企業財資部門（稍後詳談）甚至城市討論用比特幣做抗通脹儲備。
From a macro strategy standpoint, the expectation of continued monetary easing through 2025 provides a bullish backdrop for Bitcoin. Many forecasters anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further in the latter half of 2025 in response to any economic slowdown, and possibly even entertain new stimulus if needed. This “central bank put” effectively underpins asset prices. “A softer economic outlook and potential Fed rate cuts could support liquidity-driven assets like Bitcoin,” noted one analysis, adding that a weaker dollar and lower real yields make BTC more attractive as a store of value. Already, the U.S. dollar index has come off its highs, which historically inversely correlates with Bitcoin (a dropping dollar often coincides with BTC strength, as global investors seek alternatives and dollar-priced assets become cheaper for non-U.S. buyers). Furthermore, if inflation were to flicker back up due to policy easing, that could intensify interest in Bitcoin as an anti-inflation trade. We see whispers of this in the gold market – gold has held near all-time highs around $2,000 in 2023–2025 – and Bitcoin is sometimes dubbed “millennial gold,” appealing to a demographic that might choose digital scarcity over shiny metal.
從宏觀策略層面，2025年整年預期都會維持寬鬆貨幣政策，對比特幣極為有利。好多預測都指，聯儲局可能於2025年下半年進一步減息，應對任何經濟放緩，甚至可能加碼刺激。這種「央行保底」令資產價格有強大支撐。某分析引述：「經濟前景轉弱，同時聯儲局潛在減息，會有利於流動性驅動資產，例如比特幣。」再加上美元走弱、實際孳息下降，亦令BTC作儲值資產更吸引。事實上，美匯指數已由高位回落，過往經驗證明美匯與比特幣往往呈逆相關（美元跌，BTC就強，因為國際投資者搵替代資產，美元計價資產對非美買家更加便宜）。如果政策持續寬鬆致通脹又起，抗通脹交易進一步炒熱比特幣。其實金價在2023–2025年就企穩2,000美元附近高位，有聲音話比特幣係「千禧黃金」，吸引一批更傾向數碼稀缺而非傳統貴金屬的新世代。
To sum up the macro tailwinds: declining interest rates, abundant liquidity, and persistent economic uncertainties have collectively created an ideal macro environment for Bitcoin. Lower yields push capital toward Bitcoin’s higher potential returns; fears about currency debasement and debt push capital toward Bitcoin’s fixed supply; and a general risk-on mood allows speculative assets to thrive. It’s a delicate balance – for example, if a severe recession hit, it could initially hurt Bitcoin as people sell assets for cash, a risk we’ll discuss – but so far Bitcoin has navigated the macro cross-currents adeptly. As long as the Fed and other central banks remain in easing mode or at least refrain from tightening further, Bitcoin should enjoy a supportive monetary climate. One can argue that Bitcoin in 2025 is playing the role that tech stocks did in the 2010s: a beneficiary of low rates and easy money, but with an added kicker of being seen as a hedge against the very excesses that easy money creates. This paradoxical appeal – both a risk asset and a safe haven depending on the lens – means Bitcoin stands to attract diverse inflows from different investor classes in a macro landscape that is short on safe yield and long on uncertainty.
總結各大宏觀順風：持續減息、流動性充裕、經濟前景不明，一齊造就比特幣理想的宏觀環境。息口低推動資本去搵高回報，因而買比特幣；擔心貨幣或債務問題，亦推高比特幣這種有限供應資產需求；市場普遍風險胃納高，令投機性資產茁壯成長。當然這需要平衡——譬如如遇重大經濟衰退，大家拋售資產換現金，比特幣短線都可以受壓（稍後會討論）。但到現時為止，比特幣在宏觀轉變中遊刃有餘。只要聯儲局和其他央行繼續寬鬆或不再緊縮，比特幣就會享有有利貨幣環境。你甚至可以話，2025年的比特幣就像2010年代的科技股——低息旺市大贏家，但同時又變成對沖貨幣氾濫的避風港。這種既係投機資產、同時又係避險資產的矛盾魅力，令比特幣在一個缺乏安全回報、充滿不確定性的世界，繼續吸引來自不同投資群體的資金流入。
Institutional Adoption and the Bitcoin ETF Effect
機構採用及比特幣ETF效應
No analysis of Bitcoin’s recent surge would be complete without discussing the seismic shifts in institutional adoption over the past two years – particularly the advent of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and increased corporate treasury involvement. In late 2024, a development that crypto advocates had anticipated for nearly a decade finally materialized: regulators gave the green light to the first spot Bitcoin
如果唔討論過去兩年間機構投資者參與度急升——尤其係比特幣ETF的面世同企業財資配置插手，任何對近年比特幣升浪嘅分析都不算完整。2024年尾，等咗差唔多十年嘅加密貨幣擁躉終於如願——監管部門首次正式批准現貨比特幣...ETFs in the United States. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, after years of reluctance and multiple rejections, approved several high-profile Bitcoin ETF applications, including one from the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock. This watershed moment has been nothing short of a game-changer for Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
美國的ETF。美國證券及交易委員會（SEC）在多年猶豫及數次否決後，最終批准了數個矚目的比特幣ETF申請，包括全球最大資產管理公司貝萊德（BlackRock）的申請。這個分水嶺時刻，徹底改變了比特幣市場的格局。
The Bitcoin ETF launches in the U.S. (as well as similar products in Canada and Europe earlier) provided traditional investors with an easy, regulated way to gain exposure to Bitcoin through the stock market. In practical terms, it unlocked vast pools of capital that previously were sidelined due to custody concerns or mandate restrictions. Within weeks of their debut in late 2024, these ETFs saw massive inflows of money that translated directly into Bitcoin buying. For example, just in one day in April 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively saw roughly $591 million in net inflows, part of over $3.3 billion of inflows in that single week. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) – quickly one of the largest such funds – led the pack, at one point raking in nearly $1 billion in daily purchases as investors poured cash into the new product. This sudden rush of capital via ETFs demonstrated how quickly scale can be achieved now that a regulated vehicle exists. Previously, a large institution or pension fund might have been unable or unwilling to buy and hold actual Bitcoin; with an SEC-sanctioned ETF, those barriers largely evaporated. The result: demand for Bitcoin from ETFs far outstripped new supply.
比特幣ETF在美國推出（以及早前在加拿大和歐洲推出的類似產品）為傳統投資者提供了一條簡單並且受監管的途徑，透過股市接觸比特幣。實際上，這令過往因託管問題或投資限制而被擱置的龐大資金得以釋放。自2024年底ETF面世起數星期內，出現了龐大的資金流入，直接推動比特幣的購買。例如，僅在2025年4月的一天，美國現貨比特幣ETF合共錄得約5.91億美元的淨流入，該週合共已超過33億美元。貝萊德（BlackRock）的iShares Bitcoin Trust（IBIT）——很快成為其中一隻最大基金之一——曾一度單日吸納接近10億美元資金，投資者爭相投入新產品。ETF成為受監管的投資工具後，這種資金湧入反映出市場可以多快實現規模。以往，大型機構或退休基金可能無法或不願意直接買入和持有比特幣；有了由SEC認可的ETF後，這些障礙基本上消失了。結果是：ETF對比特幣的需求遠遠超越了新供應。
In fact, during December 2024 (just weeks after the first ETF approvals), Bitcoin ETFs accumulated about 51,500 BTC – nearly three times the amount of all new bitcoins mined that month. To put that in perspective, roughly 13,850 BTC are mined each month post-halving, meaning the ETFs alone were buying 272% of the monthly issuance. This imbalance between new demand and new supply was a key factor in Bitcoin’s price explosion past $100K. It’s a simple case of more buyers than sellers: miners couldn’t keep up with the appetite, so the price had to adjust upward until equilibrium was met. By mid-2025, the cumulative effect of ETF flows is profound. Analysts estimate that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold well over 100,000 BTC (and climbing), acting as a significant sink for circulating supply. Crucially, these holdings are largely long-term in nature – many ETF buyers are retirement accounts, institutional allocators, or retail investors using brokerage platforms, implying that coins parked in ETFs are not likely to be quickly sold. This dynamic introduced a structural bid under the market and has lent durability to the bull run.
事實上，在2024年12月（即ETF首批獲批之後僅數星期內），比特幣ETF已累積約51,500枚BTC——幾乎是當月新挖礦比特幣數量的三倍。讓大家易於理解點，減半後每月新開採的比特幣大約只有13,850枚，即ETF單單在市場上的吸納就已達每月發行量的272%。這種新需求與新供應之間的失衡，是比特幣價格衝破10萬美元的重要因素。簡單來說，就是買家多過賣家：礦工供應追不上市場胃口，價格只能不斷上調，直到市場達到新的平衡。到2025年中，ETF資金流的累積效應顯著。分析師估計，美國比特幣ETF合共持有逾10萬枚BTC（而且還在增長），成為流通供應的重要“黑洞”。關鍵在於，這些持倉大多是長線持有——很多ETF買家是退休帳戶、機構投資者或用券商平台的散戶，意味著ETF中的比特幣不太可能快閃沽出。這種結構性需求，為牛市提供了堅實基礎。
Beyond just the mechanical impact of ETF buying, the psychological and narrative impact has been huge. The involvement of prestigious Wall Street firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco in Bitcoin ETF offerings signaled to the world that Bitcoin is now a mainstream asset class. If in 2017 Bitcoin was dismissed as a fringe online fad, in 2025 it’s being discussed on CNBC and Bloomberg as a legitimate part of a diversified portfolio. The stamp of legitimacy provided by ETFs and the attendant custody and insurance arrangements has assuaged many previously wary investors. It’s not just theory: surveys and fund flow reports show a marked increase in institutional allocation to Bitcoin since late 2024. Hedge funds, university endowments, family offices, and even some conservative pension funds have reportedly started dipping their toes, often via these regulated products. As ARK Invest noted, even a small percentage allocation by large funds can have an outsized effect – their bull case for 2030 assumes just a 6.5% portfolio allocation on average to Bitcoin among institutions, which would translate to hundreds of thousands of dollars per BTC. We may be seeing the early innings of that rotation now, accelerated by the easier access that ETFs provide.
除了ETF購買對市場的“機械式”影響之外，心理和敘事層面的衝擊也巨大。像貝萊德、富達（Fidelity）、景順（Invesco）這些華爾街大行參與推出比特幣ETF，向全球發出明確信號：比特幣已成為主流資產。如果在2017年，比特幣還被視為邊緣的網絡潮流，那麼在2025年，它已經是CNBC、Bloomberg專題討論的投資組合一員。ETF為比特幣帶來的正規認證，以及相關的託管和保險配套，令很多過去觀望的投資者安心。這不只停留於理論上：各種調查及基金流向報告自2024年底起已明顯反映機構資金配置比特幣愈來愈多。對沖基金、大學基金會、家族辦公室，甚至某些較保守的養老基金據報都開始試水，很多都透過這些受規管產品。正如ARK Invest指出，即使大型基金只配置極小比例，對市場亦會有巨大影響——他們對2030年的牛市預測，假設機構平均把投資組合6.5%分配比特幣，這將足以令每枚BTC價值以數十萬美元計。我們現在大概正見證這輪資金輪動的初段，得益於ETF令買入門檻大大降低。
Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is another piece of the institutional puzzle. The trend of public companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, which began notably with MicroStrategy in 2020, has expanded in 2024–2025. According to data from BitcoinTreasuries.net, as of mid-2025 143 publicly traded companies around the world have Bitcoin holdings on their balance sheet, up from just a handful a few years ago. In total, these public firms hold roughly $93.3 billion worth of BTC (at current prices) among them. To be fair, a large portion of that (over two-thirds by value) is attributable to one company – MicroStrategy – which has relentlessly accumulated Bitcoin through debt raises and cash flows, amassing more than 150,000 BTC (worth around $66 billion at recent prices). But even excluding MicroStrategy, dozens of other companies ranging from fintech firms, crypto miners, payment companies, and even Tesla (which still holds some BTC) have collectively bought tens of thousands of bitcoins as long-term reserves. This movement suggests a growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a treasury asset akin to cash or gold. Firms have various motivations: some view it as a higher-upside cash reserve, others as an inflation hedge, and some as a strategic investment to align with crypto-focused business models. Whatever the case, the presence of corporate buyers means another steady source of demand. Notably, corporate treasuries often operate on long time horizons – once Bitcoin is on their balance sheet, it may stay there for years unless they need liquidity. And in 2025 we even see expansion of this concept: a publicly traded marketing firm, Thumzup, announced it is not only holding Bitcoin but considering diversifying into other cryptos like Ethereum and XRP for its treasury, signaling confidence that holding digital assets can be a legitimate corporate strategy.
比特幣的企業採納是機構化拼圖的另一塊。上市公司把比特幣納入資產負債表的趨勢，由2020年MicroStrategy率先推動，並於2024–2025年擴大。根據BitcoinTreasuries.net的數據，截至2025年年中，全球已有143間上市公司於資產負債表持有比特幣，幾年前僅有寥寥幾家。這些公司總計持有約933億美元（以現價計）的比特幣。公平點說，這當中（按市值計超過三分之二）是MicroStrategy貢獻——該公司透過發債及現金流持續掃貨，累積逾150,000枚BTC（約值660億美元）。但就算不算MicroStrategy，仍然有多間金融科技公司、加密礦企、支付公司，甚至Tesla（現時仍持有部分比特幣），都合計買入了數萬枚BTC作長線儲備。這個動向反映比特幣作為企業金庫資產（類似現金或黃金）漸為認可。企業購入比特幣的動機有多種：有人視之為高增長潛力的現金儲備，有些作為對抗通脹的避險工具，亦有人把它當成配合加密業務的戰略投資。無論什麼原因，企業買家帶來又一穩定需求來源。值得一提，企業金庫的規劃普遍周期較長——一旦比特幣進入公司帳簿，除非有資金需求，否則可能多年都不動。而且到2025年，這概念更進一步：上市營銷公司Thumzup宣布不僅持有比特幣，更考慮將以太幣、XRP等其他加密貨幣納入金庫，顯示持有數字資產已被視為一種合法企業策略。
Yet another form of institutional adoption is the involvement of traditional financial service firms in crypto infrastructure. Major banks that once shunned Bitcoin have started offering crypto custody services to clients, executing trades, or integrating blockchain tech. Fidelity, for example, has a digital assets arm that allows its clients to invest in Bitcoin. Globally, banks in Switzerland, Singapore, and elsewhere have been serving high-net-worth customers with crypto offerings. The overall effect is that the barriers between the $1 trillion+ crypto market and the $100+ trillion traditional finance market are slowly dissolving. In 2025, more than 140 public companies and dozens of funds/ETFs hold Bitcoin, and even governments hold some (notably, the U.S. and China have seized or mined large troves).
機構採納另一個重要趨勢，是傳統金融機構參與加密行業基建。以往迴避比特幣的大銀行開始為客戶提供加密貨幣託管、執行交易，甚至應用區塊鏈技術。例如Fidelity設有數碼資產部門，方便客戶投資比特幣。全球來看，瑞士、新加坡等地的銀行也為高淨值客戶提供加密貨幣服務。整體效果是，價值逾萬億美元的加密市場與逾百萬億美元的傳統金融市場之間的隔閡慢慢消融。到2025年，全球超過140間上市公司及數十隻基金/ETF持有比特幣，甚至有政府都持有（特別是美國和中國，分別查封或開採了大量儲備）。
This institutional pivot has also influenced market liquidity and stability. As institutions trade through prime brokers and ETFs, the market’s order books have deepened. We’ve seen Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility actually decline somewhat in 2024 compared to prior bull runs, perhaps because a larger share of holders are these methodical, long-term actors rather than pure retail speculation. Additionally, the development of a more mature crypto derivatives market (with options and futures even on CME, etc.) gives institutions tools to hedge and manage risk, which ironically can reduce volatility at the macro level (even if leveraged trades cause short-term swings). As one market CEO noted, there’s a growing array of ways to manage downside risk in crypto now, from options to structured products, which can make big players more comfortable holding through ups and downs.
這股機構化趨勢亦同時改善了市場流動性與穩定性。當機構透過主經紀及ETF交易時，市場盤口（買賣盤）變得更深。2024年比特幣的30日波幅相對上一輪牛市有所回落，部分原因可能是市場持有人多了這種嚴謹長線投資者，而不只是純粹的散戶短炒份子。此外，加密衍生品市場日益成熟（例如在芝商所也有期權、期貨可供交易），為機構提供套戥和風險管理工具，這些反而有助於在宏觀層面降低價格波動（即使短線有槓桿交易引發的劇烈波動）。正如有市場CEO所說，目前加密資產市場管理下行風險的手段愈來愈多，從期權到結構性產品，使大戶在升市或跌市都更易持貨過夜。
One cannot mention institutional adoption without highlighting the broader theme of mainstream acceptance. Bitcoin in 2025 is front-and-center in financial media, discussed by policymakers (sometimes in a positive light, as we’ll get to in regulation), and increasingly woven into the fabric of fintech. Payment companies like PayPal and Block (Square) continue to expand crypto offerings, making it easier for everyday people to buy or use Bitcoin. More than 75% of U.S. adults have at least heard of Bitcoin, and the percentage who own some has steadily risen. Even public sentiment indicators like social media trends and Google searches picked up notably as Bitcoin approached $100K – suggesting that a new wave of retail interest is waking up, though interestingly we haven’t reached the fever-pitch “mania” search levels of late 2017 or early 2021 yet. That could imply that the bull market still has a ways to go before hitting widespread retail euphoria, or it could reflect that adoption is now more global and diffuse.
談到機構採納，必須強調更廣泛的主流接受度主題。來到2025年，比特幣已成金融媒體焦點，受到政策制定者討論（有時還是正面評價，下文討論監管），同時越來越深植於金融科技生態。支付公司如PayPal和Block（前Square）持續擴展加密貨幣服務，使一般人更容易買入和使用比特幣。超過75%的美國成年人至少聽過比特幣，持有比特幣的比率亦持續增加。即使底層民情指標，比如社交媒體趨勢、Google搜尋量，隨比特幣逼近十萬美元時都有明顯升溫——顯示一波新的散戶關注意欲被喚醒。不過有趣的是，暫時未見2017年尾或2021年初那種狂熱搜尋潮。這可能意味牛市還未到瘋狂的終點，又或者反映比特幣的普及度現時更為全球化與分散。
In summary, the institutionalization of Bitcoin is both catalyst and confirmation of its bull run. The approval of spot ETFs opened the floodgates to billions in fresh demand, directly lifting prices and validating Bitcoin’s place in portfolios. Corporate and fund treasury adoption has taken a large chunk of supply off the market (nearly 1 million BTC is held by entities like public companies, private firms, ETFs, and governments combined). And the broader embrace by Wall Street means Bitcoin is no longer operating on the fringe – it’s in the same conversation as equities, bonds, and commodities. This confluence of adoption narratives has created a positive feedback loop: higher prices lend credibility, which spurs more adoption, which reduces supply and increases demand, leading to higher prices. That cycle can run until a natural saturation or external shock occurs. For now, it’s clearly in motion, reinforcing those optimistic forecasts that see Bitcoin’s rally extending through 2025.
總結來說，比特幣的機構化進程既是牛市催化劑也是驗證。現貨ETF獲批，為市場注入億元級新需求，直接推高價格，亦鞏固了比特幣在投資組合理的地位。企業及基金金庫吸納已將大量流通籌碼鎖定（上市公司、私企、ETF、政府合共已持有接近一百萬枚BTC）。而華爾街更廣泛擁抱意味比特幣已不再是主流外圍，和股票、債券、商品同坐一席。採納敘事的交織產生了正反饋循環：價格愈高愈有說服力帶動更多採納，供應減少、需求上升，再推動價格升值。這個循環可持續，直到自然飽和或外部衝擊出現為止。目前看來，這動力仍未衰減，並支撐了比特幣牛市有望升穿至2025年。
Historical Cycles: Halving to Peak and 2025 Outlook
Bitcoin’s price history is often described as cyclical, with discernible “bull and bear” cycles largely governed by the rhythm of its quadrennial halving events. Every four years or so, the Bitcoin network undergoes a programmed halving of the block subsidy – effectively cutting the rate of new BTC issuance in half. This built-in supply shock has, at
歷史週期：減半與頂峰以及2025展望
比特幣的價格歷史經常被形容為周期性波動，明顯的「牛熊市」多數受其每四年一次的減半事件節奏主導。大約每四年，比特幣網絡會按程式減半區塊獎勵——即每月新產生的比特幣數量腰斬。這種內建的供給衝擊已在...least in the past, acted as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s most dramatic bull runs. A simplified version of the pattern goes: after each halving, reduced supply combined with steady or growing demand drives the price upward over the subsequent 12-18 months, culminating in a blow-off top (an all-time high), which is then followed by a multi-month bear market and consolidation, until the next cycle begins. While no two cycles are identical, the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks all roughly fit this template, with each bull market peak occurring roughly 1 to 1.5 years after a halving (late 2013, late 2017, late 2021 corresponding to the 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings respectively). Now, in 2025, Bitcoin finds itself in what appears to be the post-halving bull phase once again, and many are looking to historical analogues to gauge how the rest of this cycle might play out.
過去比特幣歷來最具戲劇性的牛市，一直以來都被減半事件所催化。簡單來講，這個週期模式就是：每次減半之後，供應減少，而需求維持甚至增長，導致價格於隨後的12到18個月內持續上升，最終衝上新高（即牛市頂峰），然後進入數月的熊市和盤整期，直至下一輪週期開始。雖然每一輪週期都不會完全一樣，但2013、2017和2021年牛市頂峰，都大致符合這個描述——每次牛市高位都出現於減半約1至1.5年之後（分別對應2012、2016、2020年的減半）。而去到2025年，比特幣似乎再次處於減半後的牛市階段，很多人正參考歷史走勢，以推斷今輪週期餘下的走法。
The 2024 halving (Bitcoin’s fourth such event), which took place in April 2024, reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Leading into that halving, Bitcoin had already begun recovering from its late-2022 lows, and the narrative of a coming supply squeeze helped fuel bullish sentiment. According to research by Pantera Capital, Bitcoin has historically bottomed roughly 477 days before a halving and then rallied into and especially after the halving. True to form, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom was around November 2022 (roughly 500 days pre-halving), and it indeed rallied through 2023 up to the April 2024 halving, by which point it was in the $30Ks-$40Ks. Pantera and others projected that the real upside momentum tends to occur after the halving, over a span of roughly 12 to 18 months post-halving – historically about 480 days on average from halving to cycle peak. If that pattern holds, one would expect the peak of this bull cycle to occur sometime in late 2025 (480 days from April 2024 would put us around August 2025, but previous cycles ranged a few months either side of the average). Indeed, Pantera’s specific price model, which looks at the diminishing impact of each halving, predicted Bitcoin’s price could reach $148,000 by around July 2025 – a roughly 322% surge from the halving price, consistent with percentage gains that shrink each cycle (earlier cycles saw bigger multipliers, but off smaller base prices). Pantera noted that each halving’s impact on price tends to moderate as Bitcoin matures (the market cap is larger now, so a halving is a smaller relative reduction in new supply). Their model factored this in, hence the $148K estimate which, while high, is not as explosive as, say, the 2016->2017 20x run or the 2020->2021 7x run from trough to peak.
2024年4月，比特幣進行第四次減半，區塊獎勵由6.25 BTC降至3.125 BTC。在這次減半前，比特幣已經從2022年末的低位開始恢復，而「供應收緊」的敘事推動著市場的看漲情緒。根據Pantera Capital的研究，比特幣歷史上平均會於減半前約477日見底，其後價格會持續上升，特別是在減半之後。實情亦如是，比特幣於2022年11月左右（即減半前大約500日）見底，其後在2023年持續反彈，到2024年4月減半時價格已升至三、四萬美元區間。Pantera等機構預測，真正的上升動能，歷來主要集中在減半後的12至18個月——平均而言約480日由減半到周期頂峰。如果這次也如是，預期牛市頂峰會在2025年底（2024年4月起算480日，大約是2025年8月，但以往週期高低大約會在平均數的數個月前後出現）。Pantera的價格模型考慮了每次減半影響遞減的現象，預測比特幣有機會於2025年7月左右觸及$148,000，即減半價起計上升約322%，與過往每輪升幅逐漸縮減的情況一致（早期週期因基數細，倍數大）。Pantera亦指出，隨著比特幣愈來愈成熟（市值大幅增長），每次減半對供應的百分比減幅影響亦變得次要。因此，今次得出的$148,000估價，雖然高，但未如2016至2017年20倍升幅或2020到2021年7倍升幅般「爆炸性」。
Historical parallels are never perfect, but so far the 2024–2025 cycle is tracing a path recognizable to veteran Bitcoiners. By early 2025, Bitcoin had already comfortably exceeded its previous cycle’s high (something it hadn’t done until very late in the 2016->2017 cycle, for example). After crossing the $69K prior peak and entering six figures, Bitcoin signaled that this cycle indeed had a new price discovery phase ahead. Past cycles saw dramatic blow-off tops: e.g., in December 2017 Bitcoin ran up to $20K then rapidly fell, and in November 2021 it hit $69K with a rapid retreat thereafter. Many analysts are watching for signs of a similar euphoric finale in this cycle – the kind of exponential last leg up that often defines the end of a crypto bull market. Common features of such a finale include a short period of parabolic price increase, surging mainstream media attention, a flood of retail money (often buying smaller cap altcoins with abandon), and technical indicators like RSI going extremely overbought. As of mid-2025, those signs, while building, have not fully manifested. For instance, while Bitcoin’s price has climbed strongly, it has not yet gone vertical in the way seen in, say, the final month of 2017 or the early 2021 frenzy. A recent analysis by Morpher noted that the market appears to be in a “late optimism” phase but not yet outright euphoria. Bitcoin has been trading in a relatively orderly range between roughly $88K and $108K, consolidating its gains rather than shooting up in a straight line. Technical indicators corroborate this: the daily RSI hovering around neutral (50-60) rather than spiking above 90, and the MACD showing positive momentum but not the kind of extreme divergence typical of a top. Also, we haven’t seen the “meme coin season” or absurd altcoin pumps that often indicate froth – while some altcoins have rallied, it’s been somewhat measured and Bitcoin’s dominance (its share of total crypto market cap) remains fairly high, suggesting money is still favoring the relatively “safer” big coins. All this suggests that, if one believes in the cycle paradigm, the peak of this bull run may still lie ahead.
歷史不會重複但會押韻，截至目前為止，今輪（2024-2025）牛市仍然行走著資深比特幣用戶熟悉的路徑。2025年初時，比特幣已輕鬆突破上個週期的高位（2016-2017年周期則要去到尾段才達到上一輪高位）。當比特幣沖過舊頂$69,000並升穿十萬美元時，明顯顯示這一次牛市已進入全新「價格發現」階段。過往牛市曾見爆炸性拋物線升浪：例如2017年12月急升至$20,000後迅速回落，2021年11月衝頂$69,000亦遇同樣情況。很多分析師都在留意此次週期會否複製過往，在尾段來一浪瘋狂急升，這種「末段極速升浪」往往是加密牛市終結的標誌。這一幕常見特徵，包括：短時間內大幅暴升、主流傳媒高度關注、大量散戶資金湧現（通常無腦買入細市值山寨幣），技術指標如RSI極端超買等。到2025年中，這些跡象雖逐步浮現，卻仍未完全明顯。例如，比特幣雖然強勢上升，但還未出現如2017年年底或2021年初般的「垂直升浪」。Morpher近日分析認為市場處於「樂觀後期」，但未達極端興奮。比特幣現時於$88,000至$108,000之間橫行整固，未有一飛衝天。技術指標亦相符：日線RSI維持於50至60中性水平，未有升穿90超買，MACD亦只是正常升勢，未見極端背馳。此外，暫時仲未見「迷因幣季節」或超誇張山寨幣亂升，雖然部分山寨幣有升幅，但整體仍屬節制，比特幣主導度（即總市值佔比）較高，反映資金仍偏向「大幣安全區」。以此來看，假如相信週期理論，今輪牛市高峰或仍未到來。
Historically, bull markets have lasted 12 to 18 months after a halving, though there is variability. The 2020–2021 bull run, for example, lasted roughly 18 months (if one marks its start at the pandemic bottom of March 2020, though off the halving it was 13 months). The current bull run arguably started either in late 2022 (bottom) or early 2024 (post-halving momentum). Using early 2024 as a starting point, a 12-18 month bull run would extend into late 2025 or even early 2026 before a definitive top is in. Of course, this is a guide not a guarantee – macro events or unforeseen shocks can cut a cycle short, and alternatively an unprecedented wave of adoption could possibly extend it. But many experts, cognizant of the past, are positioning for a potential Bitcoin climax in Q4 2025 (give or take a quarter). Traders are looking at options expiring in late 2025 where open interest has built up around very high strike prices, suggesting some speculate on a parabolic run by then. Meanwhile, long-term HODLers are mentally preparing for the possibility that 2025 might present the next major selling opportunity if one is trying to time cycles – though a growing cohort now employ strategies like never selling and instead borrowing against Bitcoin or just riding out future bear markets, believing each cycle’s lows will be higher than the last.
過往牛市通常會於減半後持續12至18個月，但歷來長短不一。例如2020至2021年牛市按疫情底部計約18個月（但以減半起計為13個月）。今輪牛市大致可以說由2022年尾（見底）或2024年初（減半後動力）起步；如果以2024年初為起點，12至18個月將推進至2025年尾甚至2026年初才見到最終頂部。當然，這只可作參考，萬一有重大宏觀事故或黑天鵝，週期可能中斷；相反，若出現史無前例採用浪潮，牛市或會延長。很多專家都根據過往經驗布位，博取比特幣在2025年第四季（加減一季）爆發牛市頂峰。交易員觀察到2025年底期權持倉集中在極高行使價，反映有市場參與者下注到時將有一波暴升。而長期HODLer則開始準備心理，2025年有可能出現全新大規模獲利時機——儘管越來越多人只管死揸、抵押借貸或打算一路捱未來熊市，因相信未來每一輪熊市低位都會高於上輪。
It’s worth noting one divergence from previous cycles: Bitcoin’s market has matured and the participant mix has broadened, as we discussed with institutional adoption. This could smooth the cycle somewhat or alter its shape. For instance, in 2013 and 2017, retail fervor was a dominant force driving the final blow-off. In 2025, institutions might create a more gradual climb (as they scale in over time) and potentially a more orderly distribution when they rebalance. Or conversely, if the public piles in late (as often happens when new highs make headlines), their demand combined with institutional HODLing could create an even bigger spike than before. There’s also the possibility of a “supercycle” – a theory some have that at a certain point, Bitcoin might break the four-year cycle pattern and enter a longer structural bull market due to overwhelming global adoption. It’s an intriguing idea often floated in bullish times; whether 2025 is that moment is impossible to say, but as of now, the four-year rhythm still seems a useful framework.
值得一提的是，今次週期和以往有一個明顯分別——比特幣市場已顯著成熟，參與者結構因機構資金進入而更廣泛。這有機會令週期變得平滑或者結構有改變。例如2013及2017年，散戶瘋狂情緒壓倒市場壓軸；2025年，機構資金逐步加碼，或許令升勢變得「漸進」，分佈亦更有秩序（再平衡時有計劃沽貨）。相反，若公眾於後段入場（如新高見報人人FOMO），疊加機構長期揸貨，可能反令最終爆升更瘋狂。另外，亦有人提出「超級週期」理論——即比特幣若全球主流採納，可打破四年週期步伐，轉入一個更長期的結構性牛市。這說法每次牛市都會有人提，但2025年是否那一刻，暫難下定論，現階段四年節奏仍頗合用。
One prominent market commentator, Rekt Capital, highlighted that Bitcoin historically tends to have a significant price rally about 150-160 days after a halving. In fact, Rekt Capital noted in mid-2024 (approximately 154 days post-halving) that Bitcoin could be primed for a breakout around that timeframe, referencing how previous cycles saw inflection points a few months after the halving event. True enough, by late 2024, Bitcoin had broken decisively above its prior high, aligning loosely with that timing. If similar patterns hold, Bitcoin might experience another strong impulse wave around late 2025 (roughly 1 to 1.5 years post-halving), which again points to the end of 2025 as a critical period.
著名市場評論員Rekt Capital特別指出，比特幣歷來於減半後約150至160日經常會有一波顯著升浪。他在2024年中（約減半後154日）也提醒，市場或正在醞釀一波突破，這和過去週期於減半後數月出現拐點的現象呼應。結果到了2024年底，比特幣果然堅決突破前高，大致又應驗了這個時窗。若這種模式維持，2025年尾（約減半一年至一年半後）或會再有一浪重要推升，呼應年底將是關鍵時期。
Investors and analysts are thus keeping a close watch on signs of a cycle top as we move through 2025. These signs could include: exponential price moves (e.g., Bitcoin gaining tens of thousands of dollars per week, which hasn’t happened yet), overheated sentiment indicators (extreme greed on fear-and-greed indexes, mainstream FOMO with everyone from Uber drivers to celebrities talking crypto 24/7), altcoin overperformance (if low-quality coins start pumping 10x in days, often a top signal), and funding rates spiking (indicating heavy leverage chasing the rally). As one adage by Sir John Templeton goes: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”. By that wisdom, Bitcoin 2025 seems to be moving from the optimism stage toward euphoria, but perhaps not there just yet. When euphoria does arrive, it will be important for investors to stay rational amid the frenzy – as that is when risk is highest that the music will stop. However, failing to participate at all out of fear of a top can also mean missed opportunities. Many long-term believers simply hold through the cycles, accepting that while a post-2025 bear market could give back 50% or more of the peak value, it will likely still plateau at levels far above pre-bull prices (for example, the 2022 bear floor $16K was well above the 2018 bear floor $3K).
因此投資者和分析師正密切留意2025年內有否牛市頂峰信號。這包括：極速升浪（如每星期升過萬美元，目前還未出現）、情緒指標過熱（貪婪指數極端、主流FOMO、連Uber司機同明星都講幣）、山寨幣瘋狂上漲（垃圾幣幾日爆十倍通常是頂）、資金費率暴升（大家瘋狂開槓桿追貨）。正如John Templeton那句名言：「牛市生於悲觀，長於懷疑，盛於樂觀，死於瘋狂。」以此智慧判斷，2025年比特幣現階段由樂觀走向瘋狂，但路還有段距離。到真正「瘋狂」來臨時，投資者務必保持冷靜理智，因為正正這時最易被出乎意料的崩盤殺到。然而，過份恐懼而一直錯過參與，也會失去機會。很多長線信徒選擇不斷死揸跨週期，明白即使2025年後遇上熊市回吐一半甚至更多，亦大有可能高於以往牛市前的底部（例如2022年熊市底$16,000遠高於2018年$3,000底）。
In conclusion, historical cycle analysis provides a cautiously optimistic roadmap: if 2025 follows precedent, Bitcoin may reach its cycle crescendo later this year with prices potentially in that $150K–$200K zone or beyond**, before entering the next cooling-off period. Cycle history is guiding, not deterministic, but so far much of it has played out accordingly. As the cycle progresses, savvy market participants will balance this historical knowledge with real-time data (on-chain trends, macro shifts, etc.) to determine if/when Bitcoin’s momentum is finally waning. But at mid-year 2025, the evidence suggests we are still on that upward path, with new
總結來說，歷史週期分析提供了一份審慎樂觀的路線圖：若2025年繼續遵循前例，比特幣或會於今年稍後觸及週期高峰，價格進入$150,000-$200,000區間甚至更高，然後才進入下一輪冷卻期。週期歷史可作指引，但並非定局，至今為止大部分情況仍然相符。隨著牛市推進，精明參與者會把這些歷史經驗與即時數據（鏈上數據、宏觀變化等）結合，判斷比特幣動力何時開始見頂。但至2025年年中為止，種種跡象仍顯示，比特幣仍處於升勢之中，未見頂端。all-time highs likely still ahead rather than behind us.
歷史新高很可能尚未過去，而是在我們前面。
Regulatory Landscape: Clarity and Challenges Ahead
監管格局：更清晰但仍有挑戰
While market forces and investor sentiment drive Bitcoin’s price in the short term, the regulatory environment forms the backdrop that can either bolster confidence or inject uncertainty. In the early 2020s, crypto regulation was often cited as a primary risk – a looming cloud of potential crackdowns that could derail adoption. By 2025, that cloud has not fully cleared, but there are significant rays of sunshine breaking through. In many jurisdictions, we’ve seen moves toward regulatory clarity that have actually benefited the crypto market’s maturation. At the same time, certain regulatory battles and unknowns remain, meaning the policy outlook continues to be a double-edged sword for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
雖然市場力量同投資者情緒喺短期內推動比特幣價格，但監管環境就係背後大背景，可以提升信心，亦可以帶嚟不確定性。喺2020年代初期，加密貨幣監管經常被視為主要風險——一個可能爆發打壓、隨時拖慢推廣嘅烏雲。到2025年，雖然烏雲未完全散去，但已經有唔少曙光透出。唔少地區都見到逐步走向監管清晰，反而有助加密市場成熟。不過，一啲監管爭議同未知數依然存在，代表政策前景對比特幣走勢嚟講，依然係一把雙刃劍。
On the positive side, 2024 and 2025 witnessed meaningful regulatory breakthroughs that legitimize and integrate crypto rather than suppress it. Perhaps most notable is the comprehensive Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation passed by the European Union. MiCA, which fully came into effect across EU member states in late 2024, established a uniform legal framework for crypto asset issuance, trading, and service providers. This law essentially gives crypto businesses a clear set of rules to operate under in Europe – covering everything from exchange licensing to stablecoin reserve requirements. The result is that Europe now has one of the most robust and explicit crypto regulatory regimes in the world. Market participants have welcomed MiCA as it removes ambiguity and signals that Europe is open for crypto innovation under supervision. The law has been touted by some as a possible catalyst for the next crypto bull run, as it could attract companies and capital to the region with the promise of regulatory certainty. For Bitcoin, MiCA’s impact is indirect but important: it creates confidence that the trading and custody of BTC (and other coins) can proceed in a well-regulated manner within a huge economic bloc, reducing the fear of sudden bans or legal obstacles there.
正面嚟講，2024同2025年出現咗有意義嘅監管突破，唔再係單純打壓，而係試圖令加密貨幣合法化、融入主流。其中最值得留意嘅，係歐盟通過咗《加密資產市場規例》（MiCA）。MiCA喺2024年底起喺所有歐盟成員國生效，為加密資產發行、交易同服務供應商確立咗統一法律框架。呢套法律基本上畀咗加密企業一套明確嘅歐洲運作規則——由交易所牌照到穩定幣儲備要求都有涉及。結果，歐洲而家成為咗全球其中一個最健全、最清晰嘅加密監管區域。市場參與者普遍歡迎MiCA，因為佢消除咗不確定性，顯示歐洲係以監管方式開放畀加密創新。有人更話，呢條法例有機會成為下一波加密牛市嘅催化劑，吸引企業同資金流入區內，靠監管確定性作招徠。對比特幣嚟講，MiCA雖然影響間接，但都好重要：佢令市場有信心，可以喺呢個龐大經濟體內依法交易同託管BTC（及其他幣種），唔使太擔心突然禁令或法律障礙。
In the United States, the regulatory journey has been more tumultuous, but by 2025 there are signs of a thaw. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC – which we discussed – was a de facto admission by regulators that Bitcoin is a legitimate asset for public investment. It also likely reflects increasing pressure from courts (such as the Grayscale lawsuit victory in 2023) and from a more crypto-aware Congress to allow innovation rather than drive it offshore. Moreover, the political winds have shifted: the 2024 U.S. presidential election resulted in an administration seen as more crypto-friendly than its predecessor. In fact, some analysts directly tie part of Bitcoin’s strong performance in late 2024 to the election outcome. The return of President Donald Trump to the White House (as happened in this scenario) was perceived as positive for crypto markets. Trump, despite some past critical comments about Bitcoin, ran on a platform of deregulation and fostering emerging industries, and his administration signaled it would roll back or soften some of the hostile measures taken by regulators in previous years. This expectation of a more accommodating regulatory stance – or at least an end to what industry advocates called “regulation by enforcement” – gave a further boost to market sentiment. For example, under the prior administration, the SEC had actively pursued high-profile enforcement against several crypto exchanges and labeled dozens of alternative cryptocurrencies as unregistered securities, casting a pall over the industry. By 2025, with new leadership at agencies and a more open dialogue, there’s hope for clear legislation to define what is a security token vs. commodity, how exchanges can register, etc. The specter of an outright “ban” in the U.S. has virtually disappeared, replaced by debates on the proper scope of oversight.
美國方面，監管進程經歷波折，但到2025年都見到有緩和跡象。SEC批准現貨比特幣ETF（即前面提及）——某程度上係監管部門承認比特幣可以成為公眾投資嘅合規資產。呢個轉變，可能反映法庭壓力（如2023年Grayscale訴訟勝訴）、國會對創新的支持越來越多，而唔再將創新逼到海外。同時，政治氣氛亦改變咗：2024年美國總統大選結果，令新一屆政府被視為較友善對待加密貨幣。事實上，有分析直接將2024年底比特幣強勢表現歸因於選舉結果。特朗普重返白宮（根據本文設定），被視為加密市場利好。雖然特朗普過去曾經批評比特幣，但佢今次主打放寬監管、鼓勵新興產業，並且政府亦表明會有意收返或放寬早年部分監管敵意措施。市場預期監管態度更寬鬆（或者起碼唔再有「以執法代替監管」），令市場氣氛更旺。例如，上屆政府時期，SEC積極向多間加密交易所執法，指數十種代幣係「未經註冊證券」，影響整個行業氣氛。到2025年，改組後啲部門對話更加開放，期待有明確法例界定證券型代幣同商品型代幣分別、交易所牌照註冊程序等。全國級「禁令」陰影幾已消失，討論變咗圍繞如何適度監管。
It’s not all smooth sailing, however. Regulators globally are still grappling with how to balance innovation with consumer protection and financial stability. In the U.S., while Bitcoin itself enjoys a relatively strong regulatory position (acknowledged as a commodity by the CFTC and now with ETFs), parts of the crypto industry remain under scrutiny. Stablecoins, for instance, are likely to face new regulations regarding reserves and issuance. The tax treatment of crypto is another evolving area – U.S. lawmakers have proposed requiring more tax reporting for crypto transactions, and how capital gains from the big 2025 run are handled (e.g., any changes to tax rates for crypto gains) could influence investor behavior. Also, the SEC, even after allowing Bitcoin ETFs, has not yet approved a spot Ethereum ETF as of mid-2025 (though several are proposed) and continues to pursue cases against certain crypto token issuers from past ICOs or alleged frauds. Thus, legal uncertainties remain a potential risk factor. A surprise court ruling or regulatory action can still roil the market in the short term. As a Bloomberg analyst put it, any “surprise crackdowns, tax policy shifts, or SEC actions” that come out of left field could dent sentiment and temporarily hinder Bitcoin’s climb. For example, if regulators decided to heavily restrict banks’ ability to interface with crypto firms (cutting off fiat on-ramps), that could cause a liquidity crunch. Or if anti-money-laundering rules become draconian to the point of hampering legitimate trading, that might spook some investors.
不過，一切都未必暢順。全球監管機構仍然努力平衡：一方面推動創新，另一方面保障消費者同維持金融穩定。喺美國，比特幣本身嘅監管地位好（CFTC認證屬商品，ETF亦獲批准），但業界其他部分仍然被密切審查。例如穩定幣將面對更多針對儲備同發行規例。加密貨幣稅務處理都係變動中——美國議員建議加強申報義務，而2025年大牛市贏利如何課稅（例如稅率改動）都可能影響投資者行為。再者，雖然SEC已批比特幣ETF，但到2025年中都未批現貨以太幣ETF（雖然有好多申請），同時繼續追查早年ICO代幣或涉嫌詐騙案件。咁樣，法律不確定性仍然係波動風險來源。例如突如其來嘅判決或監管行動，都會短暫令市場大幅波動。彭博分析員都話，「突然而來嘅打壓、稅制變動、SEC政策」等，都可以打擊市場情緒，減慢比特幣升勢。例如，如果監管機構突然嚴限銀行同加密公司合作（截斷法幣入金通道），會引發流動性危機；又或者反洗錢法例加到過嚴，連正規交易都受阻，可能會嚇怕投資者。
Outside the U.S. and Europe, other major economies present a mixed picture. China famously banned cryptocurrency trading for its citizens in 2021, which pushed a lot of activity offshore. That hasn’t changed officially – China still prohibits domestic exchanges – but interestingly China’s government holds a large trove of seized bitcoins, and Chinese traders find ways to participate via OTC markets. There’s speculation that in a more favorable global climate, China could relax its stance, but nothing concrete yet. India, which has oscillated between anti-crypto rhetoric and considering a central bank digital currency (CBDC), seems to be taking a more measured approach lately, regulating crypto taxation but not banning ownership. Latin America has actually been a bright spot, with countries like El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as legal tender (a bold experiment continuing into 2025) and others like Brazil establishing clear rules and even government investments in blockchain. Africa and Southeast Asia see rising adoption with relatively sparse regulatory interference so far, although some countries are crafting frameworks.
除咗美國同歐洲，其他主要經濟體就情況各有不同。中國於2021年高調禁止國民進行加密貨幣交易，導致大量交易移至境外。到而家中國仍然唔畀本地交易所營運，但有趣嘅係，中國政府本身持有大量被查封嘅比特幣，而中國投資者亦搵緊OTC途徑參與。有推測話環球態度一旦大轉變，中國亦有可能放寬立場，但而家未有任何實質改變。印度過去一時反對，一時又想發展央行數字貨幣（CBDC），最近開始走折衷路線：加強加密貨幣課稅監管，但未有禁止持有。拉丁美洲反而成為亮點，例如薩爾瓦多將比特幣定為法定貨幣（大膽實驗到2025年都繼續緊），巴西則出咗明確指引甚至有政府區塊鏈投資。非洲同東南亞則見開始普及，暫時未見太多嚴厲監管，個別國家正諗緊框架。
One area to watch is central bank digital currencies and how they might interplay with Bitcoin. Many central banks are developing their own digital currencies, which could potentially be used to enforce capital controls or offer an alternative digital value transfer method. Some crypto enthusiasts worry that widespread CBDC adoption might come with regulations that discourage use of decentralized cryptos like BTC. However, in 2025, CBDCs (like a pilot digital euro or China’s e-CNY) have not significantly dented the appeal of Bitcoin – if anything, they highlight Bitcoin’s difference as a permissionless network versus government-issued digital money.
另一個值得留意地方係央行數字貨幣（CBDC）會點樣同比特幣互動。好多央行而家都試驗自己嘅數字貨幣，可以用嚟加強資本管制，或者提供另一類數碼支付方式。有啲加密愛好者擔心，如果CBDC全面推行，相關監管會令去中心化加密貨幣例如BTC受壓。不過，2025年截至目前，CBDC（例如數字歐元試點同中國e-CNY）並冇明顯減弱比特幣吸引力——反而突顯咗比特幣作為無需授權網絡，同政府發行數字貨幣間嘅分別。
From a legal standpoint, one significant positive development has been clearer judicial rulings on crypto assets. Courts in the U.S. have, in a few notable cases, pushed back against regulators’ broad claims. For example, the Grayscale victory forced the SEC to reconsider its inconsistent stance on ETFs. In another case (hypothetically, say Ripple’s legal battle), courts have provided more nuanced determinations of what constitutes a security when it comes to crypto tokens, potentially exempting sufficiently decentralized tokens. Each such ruling reduces uncertainty bit by bit.
法律層面講，有一大正面進展係法庭對加密資產判決越嚟越清晰。如美國法院有幾單重要案例，明顯制衡咗監管機構過於籠統嘅主張。例如Grayscale訴訟勝訴，令SEC要重新考慮其ETF立場唔一致。而假如以Ripple代幣訴訟為例，法院亦作出更細緻界定咩為證券，令去中心化程度夠高嘅代幣有望豁免。每一次這類判決，都逐步減低法律不確定性。
All told, by 2025 there’s a sense that the regulatory trajectory is bending toward normalization of crypto. We no longer have prominent figures calling for blanket bans; instead, the discussions are about how to integrate crypto into the financial system safely. One can argue this is a natural evolution: as the industry grew and lobbyists made their case, policymakers recognized that crypto is something that can be regulated and taxed, not simply outlawed. Even in the U.S., where partisan divides exist (with some members of Congress very pro-crypto and others skeptical), there’s movement on bipartisan bills to establish clear rules of the road. The crypto lobby, backed by some deep-pocketed firms after the successes of this bull run, has also gained influence.
總括嚟講，去到2025年，監管方向明顯愈來愈向加密貨幣正常化邁進。再冇重量級人物要求全面封殺，話題重心係點樣將加密貨幣安全接入主流金融體系。呢個可以話係自然演變——行業壯大，遊說團體發揮作用，政策制定者意識到加密貨幣係可以規管、徵稅，而唔單止要禁止。即使美國政見分歧（有議員極力支持，有人懷疑），都開始有跨黨派法案，為行業設立明確規則。經過今次牛市，背後有資本支持嘅加密遊說團體影響力亦急升。
However, vigilance is warranted. Regulation can still be a swing factor that introduces volatility. For example, if a major economy were to impose a sudden heavy-handed restriction – say, banning institutional investors from holding crypto, or outlawing mining due to environmental concerns – that could cause a sharp pullback. Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) pressures on Bitcoin mining do continue to be a topic; while much of mining has shifted to renewable energy or flared gas usage (improving its green credentials), certain jurisdictions might crack down on mining if they perceive it as conflicting with climate goals. Thus far, though, the trend has been miners relocating rather than quitting – e.g., after China’s ban, mining shifted to North America, Central Asia, etc. In the U.S., some states actively court miners for grid stability benefits.
不過，大家都要保持警覺。監管依然有可能成為左右市場波動嘅主因。例如，如果有大國突然實施強硬限制——如禁止機構投資者持有加密資產，又或者以環保為由禁礦——都會造成急挫。ESG（環境、社會、企業管治）壓力對比特幣挖礦依然係熱門話題；雖然而家多數礦場都改用可再生能源或者燃氣，綠色形象改善，但有啲地區如果覺得唔合氣候政策，仍可能針對打壓。到而家為止，主流做法係礦工搬遷而唔係放棄——例如中國禁礦以後，礦場搬咗去北美、中亞等地。美國有啲州甚至主動招攬礦工，想靠佢哋提升電網彈性。
In conclusion, the regulatory outlook for Bitcoin in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, especially compared to the uncertainty of prior years. Clearer frameworks in the EU and a friendlier posture in the U.S. have removed some existential threats and are likely contributors to the bullish sentiment underpinning the current market. Regulators are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a legitimate
總結嚟講，2025年比特幣監管前景係審慎樂觀，尤其同過去幾年嘅不穩定對比。歐盟制度清晰，美國態度友善，某程度上已消除主要存亡威脅，亦成為現時市場牛市信心來源之一。監管機構越嚟越將比特幣視為正規資產……asset class to be supervised, not a pariah to be eradicated. That said, the journey to full regulatory clarity is ongoing. Investors should keep an eye on policy developments – be it new laws from Congress, guidance from the SEC/CFTC, tax rules from the IRS, or international coordination on crypto standards – as these can impact market access and investor behavior. Overall though, the fear that “regulation will kill Bitcoin” has substantially abated. If anything, thoughtful regulation is now seen as enabling more adoption – for instance, an SEC-approved ETF was regulatory action, and it unleashed billions in investment. As long as the industry continues to engage with policymakers and operate transparently, the regulatory environment is likely to remain a tailwind rather than a headwind for Bitcoin’s march toward new all-time highs.
資產類別應該受到監管，而唔係被剷除。話雖如此，全面監管清晰度既進程仍然未完結。投資者應該持續留意政策發展——無論係國會新立既法律、SEC/CFTC提供既指引、IRS既稅務規則，定係國際間關於加密貨幣標準既協調——呢啲因素都會影響市場進出同投資者行為。整體而言，過去對「監管會摧毀比特幣」既憂慮已經大幅減退。事實上，現時更多人視到有建設性既監管反而有助推動採納——例如SEC批准既ETF，本身就係監管措施，但同時釋放出數十億既投資。只要行業繼續同政策制定者溝通，同時保持透明運作，監管環境好大機會繼續成為推動比特幣創新高既順風，而唔係阻力。
Conclusion: On the Cusp of New Highs, With Eyes Wide Open
結論：逼近新高峰，保持高度警覺
Bitcoin’s remarkable performance through 2024 and into 2025 has reaffirmed its status as a transformative asset – one that has matured significantly since its early days, yet still holds vast upside potential if forecasts are to be believed. Standing in mid-2025, with the price hovering around six figures and tantalizingly close to recent record highs, the question is not if Bitcoin will set a new all-time high (it already has around $112K), but how high could the next peak go and what path will it take to get there.
比特幣由2024年到2025年既出色表現，再次證明佢係一個具顛覆性既資產——經過多年發展，明顯成熟左好多，但根據預測仲有好大上升空間。去到2025年年中，價錢盤旋係六位數字，貼近歷史新高，大家問既已經唔係「會唔會創新高」（其實已經去到約$112,000），而係「下個高峰可以去到幾高」同埋「會經過咩路徑先去到」。
The analysis above highlights a confluence of encouraging factors: expert predictions from credible sources envisioning Bitcoin in the $150K-$200K range within months, underpinned by robust on-chain fundamentals like whale accumulation and shrinking supply, buoyed by macroeconomic tailwinds of easier monetary policy and investor appetite for alternatives amid fiscal uncertainty, and accelerated by institutional adoption and ETF-driven inflows on an unprecedented scale. This is a far cry from the rally of late 2017, which rested largely on retail frenzy and a novel narrative. The 2025 bull run is broader and deeper: Wall Street is involved, Main Street is increasingly interested, and even governments and blue-chip companies have skin in the game. Bitcoin has, in many respects, graduated to the financial big leagues.
上述分析指出咗多項令人鼓舞既因素：可靠來源既專家推算未來幾個月比特幣會見$150,000至$200,000，背後有鏈上數據強勁支持（例如大戶收集、供應緊縮），同時受惠於經濟環境放寬貨幣政策、投資者尋找另類資產（面對財政不明朗），以及機構投資、ETF帶動嘅前所未有資金流入。呢一切同2017年尾靠散戶狂熱同新鮮感帶動既升市完全唔同。2025年既牛市更加廣闊同深入——華爾街積極參與，大眾愈來愈有興趣，就連各國政府同藍籌企業都參一腳。比特幣已經，喺好多層面上，真係升上一線金融市場既層次。
That said, investors and enthusiasts should avoid complacency. Bitcoin may be on an upward trajectory, but it is not a one-way escalator to the moon – volatility and corrections are integral to its DNA. Already in 2025 we’ve seen dips and consolidation phases that tested the resolve of newcomers. And looking forward, the landscape is not without risks. Macroeconomic conditions, while favorable now, could shift – an unexpected surge in inflation or a financial crisis could either boost Bitcoin (as a safe haven) or hurt it (if liquidity dries up), depending on the nature of the shock. Regulatory surprises, though less ominous than before, could still emerge; a patch of bad news on that front might inject fear momentarily. There’s also the perennial risk of over-exuberance. At some point, likely when Bitcoin’s price has risen even more, the market could enter a phase of irrational exuberance (the euphoria stage) where price outruns intrinsic progress. History suggests that chasing the rally in its late stages without caution can lead to painful drawdowns when the cycle inevitably turns.
不過，投資者同持份者都唔可以掉以輕心。比特幣雖然上緊升軌，但唔係一條直衝太空既單程自動電梯——波動同調整本身就係比特幣基因一部份。2025年都已經出現過幾次下跌同盤整階段，考驗咗新手既信心。展望未來，市場都唔係冇風險。宏觀經濟雖然而家睇落有利，但都好容易變卦——如果突如其來通脹爆升、或者發生金融危機，可能會令比特幣因避險受惠，但亦可能因流動性緊縮而下跌，視乎衝擊性質點樣。而監管方面，雖然而家冇以前咁驚，但始終都有驚喜，萬一有壞消息，市況都會一度恐慌。另外，永遠都要提防過度亢奮。等比特幣升得更高時，好快可能會出現「非理性繁榮」——俗稱「瘋狂期」——到時價格同基本面脫節。歷史證明，喺牛市末段無戒心咁盲追，最終市況一轉，回調會好痛。
For now, however, the trend remains clearly bullish, and those who have ridden this wave so far have been rewarded for their conviction. The broader crypto market, too, has swelled to a total market capitalization of over $3.4 trillion – surpassing the heights of 2021 and indicating the scale of capital flowing into the space. Bitcoin stands at the forefront of this resurgence, its dominance intact and its narrative arguably stronger than ever. We’ve seen it being called digital gold, a hedge for the 21st century, a store of value for the people (and institutions), and a technology that offers financial freedom. Each new all-time high not only creates headlines but also validates those narratives in the eyes of a broader audience. When Bitcoin crossed $100K, it crossed a psychological Rubicon: six figures made it hard for even the staunchest skeptics to ignore, and it became an aspirational asset for a generation of investors much like gold at $2,000 or the Dow at 30,000.
但至少目前，走勢仍然明顯偏強，持貨至今既人都因為堅定信念而獲得回報。更廣泛既加密貨幣市場總市值已經超過$3.4萬億美金——高於2021年高位，證明資金流入規模驚人。比特幣係呢波復甦既核心角色，主導地位依然，故事亦比以往任何時候更有力。大家已經見慣「數碼黃金」、「21世紀避險資產」、「全民（及機構）價值儲存工具」、「賦予財務自由既新技術」等稱號。每次創新高，不單止造就新聞頭條，仲強化咗呢啲故事，令更大眾群體認同。當比特幣升穿$100,000，全新心理關口被突破：六位數令最懷疑批都好難再當無到，對新一代投資者嚟講，佢地開始以比特幣為追求對象，就好似以前黃金升穿$2,000、美股道指去到30,000一樣。
In the coming months, keep an eye on key developments that could serve as milestones or catalysts. The potential approval of an Ethereum spot ETF in the U.S. might extend the crypto rally and bring fresh attention to the space. Ongoing accumulation by institutions (via ETFs or direct purchases) will be telling – weekly data on fund inflows can give a gauge of how “hot” the institutional fervor remains. On-chain, watch metrics like the HODLer metrics (are long-term holders still holding strong?), the mempool and transaction fees (a pickup might indicate heightened activity), and exchange balances (continued outflows would signal ongoing confidence). Technically, traders will watch if Bitcoin can maintain support above prior key levels (e.g., hold above $100K now that it’s achieved, in the same way $20K and $69K were earlier reference points). A consolidation above previous highs often precedes the next leg up. Conversely, if Bitcoin were to retreat sharply below such levels, it might indicate a longer cooling-off period is needed.
未來幾個月，可以密切留意一啲可能成為里程碑或者催化劑既發展。例如美國或會批准以太幣實貨ETF，令加密市場牛氣再燃，吸引新焦點。機構持續增持（無論經ETF定直接買入）同樣值得關注——每周資金流入數據反映機構參與熱度幾高。鏈上方面，可以睇吓長期持有指標（長線持有人堅唔堅定？）、mempool同交易費用（如有大升，可能活動特別多），又或者交易所餘額（持續流出代表信心升溫）。技術面上，交易員會睇比特幣可唔可以守住之前果啲重要位（例如而家係$100,000一樣，好似從前$20,000或$69,000咁成為新基準）。如果可以穩定守頂位之上整固，下一波升浪可能隨時開始。反之，萬一急跌穿咗關鍵位，可能要等耐啲先再展升勢。
For those believers in the four-year cycle, 2025 is the year they’ve been waiting for – and thus far it has delivered. Yet, they also know how the cycle story typically ends: a blow-off top followed by a retrace. Many are already planning exit strategies or hedges for when signs of that top emerge (such as scaling out gradually as milestones like $150K, $200K are hit, or setting stop-orders, etc.), while others plan to HODL regardless, viewing any post-2025 dip as just another temporary winter before the next spring. Neither approach is “right” or “wrong” in a volatile emerging market like this; it depends on one’s investment horizon and risk tolerance.
對於相信四年周期既投資者來講，2025年就係佢地一直等既年份——而事實證明到依家都真係交足功課。不過，佢地都知道循環點樣收科：升到爆頂，然後大幅回吐。好多人已經開始策劃離場方案或者設置對沖工具準備見頂（例如到咩位逐步沽、set止賺單等），亦有人揀HODL，照坐艇，覺得2025年後既調整都只不過又一場小冬天，等下個春天再黎。呢兩種做法喺咁波動、又新既市場入面都無定對錯，主要睇你既投資年期同風險承受能力。
In wrapping up, one cannot help but reflect on Bitcoin’s journey: from a $0.001 curiosity in 2009 to over $100,000 in 2025, it has defied countless obituaries and skeptic predictions. Each cycle it draws in new converts – be they small retail investors in developing countries protecting their savings, or multi-billion-dollar fund managers seeking uncorrelated alpha – and each cycle it also tests the faith of its adherents with gut-wrenching drops. If the expert insights compiled here prove accurate, Bitcoin may very well be poised to reach heights in 2025 that once seemed unimaginable, solidifying its role in the global financial system. But even as we anticipate those new all-time highs and perhaps pop champagne as certain targets are met, it’s wise to remain grounded. Bitcoin’s value lies not just in its price, but in the technological and monetary revolution it represents. The price is a reflection of growing adoption and belief in that revolution.
總結來講，比特幣旅程令人感慨：2009年一蚊唔使既新奇玩意，去到2025年超過$100,000，無數次被唱衰都頂得住。每個週期都吸引新血——可能係發展中國家要保住積蓄既散戶，亦可能係搵非相關超額回報既億億聲基金經理——同時，又每次大跌考驗粉絲信仰。如果今次搵到既專家意見成立，比特幣好大機會係2025年衝到想像唔到既高位，穩固自己於全球金融體系既角色。但即使大家熱切期待新高、慶祝達標，都記住腳踏實地。比特幣價值唔淨係體現價錢，更係代表緊技術同貨幣革命。價格只係越來越多人相信同接受緊呢場革命既反映。
So, as we stand likely on the brink of Bitcoin’s next ATH and possibly its first venture into quarter-million dollar territory (should the stars align fully), the mood is one of confident enthusiasm. The data and expert opinions reviewed lend credence to an upward path ahead. Assuming no major disruptions, Bitcoin appears on track to continue climbing into uncharted price ranges – perhaps testing the low-to-mid six figures by year-end if bullish scenarios play out. Such an outcome would not only reward investors but also mark a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s evolution from speculative experiment to established asset class. As always, participants should remain vigilant, do their own research, and be prepared for twists and turns. But if current trends hold, the coming months could indeed see Bitcoin achieve what once was a near-mythical milestone: a price that firmly places it among the most valued assets on Earth, fulfilling – and perhaps exceeding – many of the forecasts that seemed so bold just a short while ago. The next all-time high is not a question of if, but rather how far into the heights of this bull cycle Bitcoin can soar, before the cycle of renewal begins anew.
所以，當大家站在比特幣下個歷史高位既門檻，甚至可能第一次挑戰二十五萬美元區間（如果萬事俱備），整體情緒係自信帶期望。所引用既數據同專家意見都贊成下一步向上。如無重大變故，比特幣預期會繼續衝上未知高位——假如牛市持續，年底前有機會測試六位數中至高檔。到時，不單止投資者會因此受惠，更代表比特幣從單純試驗變成正規資產類別既重要一頁。參與者一如以往，要保持警惕、自行深做功課，亦要隨時準備市場轉向。但如果目前勢頭唔變，未來幾個月真係有可能睇到比特幣衝到昔日遙不可及既目標——價值足以與地球上最貴重資產並列，完全甚至超越唔久前一眾大膽預測。對於下個歷史新高，重點唔係「會唔會」，而係「今次呢個牛市，比特幣可以升到幾高」，之後再進入新一輪週期。