這場加密寒冬的規模前所未有，對管理不善的項目如同滅絕級災難，卻反而鞏固了真正基礎設施的發展。
融資寒潮來勢洶洶亦無情：風險投資從2022年的333億美元暴跌68%至2023年的107億美元，資金連續五季下滑，從2022年第一季的121.4億美元高峰，跌至2023年第二季僅剩23.4億美元。
人才流失同樣劇烈且選擇性明顯。隨著多家主流交易所大規模裁員——Coinbase 裁減20%員工、Crypto.com 裁20%、Hodlnaut 消減80%職位——整體從業人數急降。但值得一提的是，有兩年以上經驗的開發者於熊市期間反而增加27%，到了2024年已佔全行業代碼提交量的70%。
地域動態亦急速變化，從以投機為主的北美轉向亞洲基建項目。到2024年，亞洲成為主導，吸納32%全球加密開發者，僅印度已供應17%新晉開發人員。這標誌着由零售投機轉向明確監管和實用型發展的根本轉變。
機構撤資反而催生「趨優效應」，令真正有價值的項目受惠。Tiger Global、SoftBank等傳統風投全線撤退，只剩加密本土基金和真正信仰者繼續投入資本，項目必須靠實用價值而非炒作，推動行業出現史上最嚴格的市場盡職審查。
監管壓力大幅提升，SEC於2023年提起46宗執法行動，按年增加53%，創2013年以來新高。聯邦總罰款達36億美元，多宗名人及高調案例表明對違規零容忍。這些動作不僅無損正規開發，更提供清晰行業邊界，把最弱的玩家徹底淘汰。
Layer 1區塊鏈項目倖存者深度解析
以太坊在壓力下展現高超執行力，熊市高峰期完成三次重大網絡升級。「合併」（2022年9月）轉到權益證明機制，節能99.95%，並於極端市況下保持100%正常運作；「上海」（2023年4月）允許質押提款，增強驗證人信心及網絡安全；「坎昆-德內卜」（2024年3月）透過EIP-4844引入proto-danksharding，大幅降低Layer 2交易成本。
以太坊生態系真正成就，是熊市期間Layer 2的爆發：每月3592名L2開發人數自2021年起年增67%，超過一半以太坊開發者現正專攻擴容方案。此發展剛好發生於市況最嚴峻時，展示實質基建創新。74%多鏈開發者繼續選擇EVM鏈，鞏固以太坊智能合約平台霸主地位。
Solana 能從FTX倒閉中浴火重生，堪稱加密史上最傳奇案例。雖然其價格急挫94%，與FTX「綁定」惡名昭著，卻在2022-23年間開發活躍度反而上升。2024年，開發者年增達83%，新開發者全球第一、印度採用率亦奪冠。
網絡穩定性顯著提升，透過收費市場、交易排序及防垃圾攻擊等升級成功大減斷線情況。10月2024年，鎖倉值從2.06億美元低谷恢復至64億美元，去中心化交易所成交量佔全球81%，全年總額達5740億美元。基金會受FTX波及資產少於1%，運作維持正常；流通量71%仍被質押（115億美元），展現社群強烈信心。
Avalanche 熊市期間專注於企業級基建，推出革命性 HyperSDK 工具包，將自訂區塊鏈開發時程由數月縮短至數天。此舉令自訂鏈可達每秒100,000-150,000+交易且僅用500-1,000行程式碼，更專注企業用戶而非零售炒作。與摩根大通、花旗、加州車牌局及德勤等合作，於動盪市況中突顯實際用途。
Avalanche9000升級（2024年底）以Layer 1取代子網，大減新鏈部署成本，Teleporter協議則實現無縫跨鏈通訊。持續與學術機構合作及改進SDK，有約1,300位驗證人於危機時期守護網絡安全。
Polygon 透過品牌策略合作推動企業採用，並非依靠炒幣機制。zkEVM於2023年3月推出，成為首個EVM等效零知識rollup，可實際生產應用，到2023年第2季已吸納逾20萬個獨立地址。與迪士尼、Adobe、Meta、星巴克、Nike、萬事達、梅賽德斯及Reddit等大牌合作，實現幣價以外之持續收入。
Google Cloud 長期Web3產品研發夥伴關係，是Polygon熊市企業優先策略的縮影。Polygon 2.0提出以ZK驅動L2無限擴容，預備迎接機構級採用。根據《Fortune》分析顯示，該生態於2022幣災中受影響屬最輕微一批。
DeFi協議重點分析
Uniswap 在熊市持續開發V4，是該時期最重要的DeFi創新，經18個月艱苦開發，將於2025年1月正式推出。革命性的 hooks 機制讓自定功能無限擴展，目前已有150+ hooks，令建池成本減至原先的0.01%，同時成為DeFi史上審計最多（9次獨立審計，賞蟲基金高達1550萬美元）的協議。
由公司主導過渡至基金會治理於2022年順利完成，Uniswap基金會亦獲得社群壓倒性支持。2024年單單V4已招募逾800名開發者，證明市況低迷下依然吸引頂尖人才。多鏈部署已覆蓋10+區塊鏈，為跨鏈布局鋪路。熊市期間總交易額超過2.75萬億美元，期間零被駭。
Aave 熊市期間透過產品多元化轉型業務模式，V3已覆蓋七條主鏈。2022年第四季，日活用戶逆市增加180%。2022全年收入達1.86億美元，其中2100萬美元進入金庫，顯示其經濟模型可持續性，不依賴幣價。
GHO 穩定幣於2023年7月推出，99.99%治理支持，創新收益模型讓Aave可保留所有利息收入。推進跨鏈Arbitrum部署並用Chainlink CCIP，結合Lens Protocol熊市期間活躍超10萬用戶，為平台帶來源源不絕多元收入。與Chaos Labs、Gauntlet、Llama合作加強風險管理，同時保持核心開發團隊穩定。
Compound於2022年8月推出Compound III（Comet）徹底重建協議體系，展現極難市況下的技術野心。率先採用單一資產借貸模式（以USDC開局），大幅簡化智能合約，同時降低燃油費並提升資本效率。多鏈統一的COMP治理及「配置器」合約，集中決策並提升運作效率。
加入商業授權防止非法分叉反映其知識產權策略成熟；全網累積超過6.5億美元鎖倉值，證明用戶黏性。市場隔離機制防止風險傳染，吸取早期DeFi教訓，亦為機構採用及優化風險管理作好準備。
MakerDAO的Endgame Plan堪稱DeFi史上最大規模組織重整，於2022年5月市況急轉直下時啟動。與 Monetalis Clydesdale（12.5億美元美國國債ETF）及 Coinbase Institutional（16億美元USDC年息1.5%）合作，至2023年鏈上實體資產規模達27億美元，設立穩定持續收益，不受幣價波動左右。
2024年Sky Protocol 推出，讓USDS 與DAI並行發展，為合規鋪路，Spark Protocol SubDAO展示去中心治理成效。大幅上調Dai儲蓄利率由1%高峰至16%（落實於10%），靠實體資產收益支撐，吸納逾80億美元存款，於熊市期間證明收益可持續。 conditions. The three-phase Endgame approach (Pigeon, Eagle, Phoenix) provided clear transition roadmap from RWA reliance to 75%+ ETH-backed collateral over time.
條件。三階段Endgame策略（Pigeon、Eagle、Phoenix）為由RWA依賴過渡到75%以上以太坊抵押品逐步轉型，提供了清晰的路線圖。
Infrastructure and developer tools
Chainlink's CCIP development during the bear market created the most comprehensive cross-chain infrastructure in crypto history, achieving 900%+ growth in cross-chain transactions and 4,000%+ growth in transfer volume during Q1 2024 alone. General availability launch in July 2024 following early access in 2023 demonstrated careful product development focused on enterprise adoption rather than speculative hype. Revenue growth of 180% over two months (January-March 2024) reaching $377,000 cumulative revenue proved sustainable business model development.
Chainlink於熊市期間開發CCIP，建立了加密歷史上最全面的跨鏈基建，只在2024年第一季，跨鏈交易量激增超過900%，轉帳總額更大升4000%。2023年率先開放早鳥名額後，於2024年7月正式公開上線，展示了專注企業落地而非投機炒作的產品路線。2024年1-3月收入飆升180%，累積達37.7萬美元，證明其商業模式具可持續性。
Enterprise node operator expansion included Deutsche Telekom, Swisscom, Associated Press, and AccuWeather, creating professional infrastructure independent of crypto speculation. Major protocol integrations with Aave (GHO), Metis canonical bridge, and Synthetix provided real utility during market downturns. The Swift partnership for traditional banking cross-chain transfers demonstrated institutional bridge development during maximum regulatory uncertainty.
企業驗證節點營運者包括德國電信、瑞士電信、AP通訊社及AccuWeather，帶來無關炒幣的專業基建。Aave（GHO）、Metis官方橋、Synthetix等主流協議整合，在市況低迷時發揮了實用價值。與Swift合作推動傳統銀行跨鏈轉帳，於監管極度不明朗時亦展示了機構橋角色。
The Graph achieved complete decentralization during crypto winter, representing the most successful transition from centralized to decentralized infrastructure in blockchain history. The hosted service sunset (August 2022 announcement, June 2024 completion) migrated 31,000+ subgraphs from centralized to decentralized network with remarkable efficiency. Query volume reached 2.9 billion in Q2 2024 (84% increase from Q1) while query fee revenue hit all-time highs of $113,000 (160% quarter-over-quarter growth).
The Graph於加密寒冬期間全面實現去中心化，成為區塊鏈史上最成功由中心化過渡至去中心化基建的案例。2022年8月宣布終止託管服務，並於2024年6月完成所有遷移，超過31,000個子圖以高效方式轉至去中心化網絡。到2024年第二季，查詢量達29億，按季升幅84%；查詢手續費創歷史新高，達11.3萬美元，按季升幅160%。
The Subgraph Studio launch enabled seamless migration experience while 7,370 subgraphs published to decentralized network by Q2 2024 represented 278% increase from Q1. Functional curation market with Indexers, Curators, and Delegators created sustainable economic incentives through 10% query fee shares and delegated staking mechanisms. Support for 22+ blockchain networks including Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Polygon provided comprehensive data infrastructure for major protocols like Uniswap, Synthetix, Balancer, and Curve.
Subgraph Studio推出後，遷移體驗無縫流暢；至2024年第二季，發佈至去中心化網絡的子圖增至7,370個，按季升幅278%。透過Indexer、Curator及Delegator的功能齊全策展市場，結合10%查詢費分成及委託質押，營造可持續的經濟激勵。支援22條以上主流鏈（如Ethereum、Arbitrum、Polygon），為Uniswap、Synthetix、Balancer、Curve等大型協議提供完善數據基建。
Alchemy's Series C funding ($200 million at $10.2 billion valuation) in February 2022 during peak bear market conditions demonstrated investor confidence in developer infrastructure during maximum market stress. SDK installs reached 106.4 million in 2023 (31% year-over-year growth) while teams building on Alchemy increased 3X despite market conditions. Annualized transaction value reached $105 billion (up from $45 billion) proving genuine developer adoption rather than speculative usage.
Alchemy於2022年2月，熊市高峰時期獲得C輪融資2億美元，估值高達102億美元，反映投資者對開發者基建的信心。2023年SDK安裝量達1.064億，按年升幅31%；在逆市下，於Alchemy開發的團隊數目也增長3倍。全年處理交易總額升至1,050億美元（上年同期僅450億），顯示開發者真實採用而非純投機應用。
The $25 million grants initiative launched during market downturn supported ecosystem development while expansion to Arbitrum, StarkNet, zkSync, Base, and Worldcoin provided comprehensive multi-chain infrastructure. API usage growth throughout the bear market demonstrated essential infrastructure utility independent of token price speculation, positioning Alchemy as critical developer infrastructure for the next crypto cycle.
在市場低迷時啟動2,500萬美元資助計劃，推動生態發展；並進一步擴展至Arbitrum、StarkNet、zkSync、Base及Worldcoin等多鏈基建。API使用率於全個熊市持續增長，證明其為無關幣價的核心基建服務，讓Alchemy成為下輪牛市不可或缺的開發者基建。
Emerging sector leaders
Liquid staking dominated crypto winter growth, achieving the rare feat of expanding market share during the most challenging conditions in crypto history. Lido Finance secured 29%+ of all Ethereum staking while growing TVL from approximately $20 billion peak to over $30+ billion by 2024, demonstrating structural advantage from Ethereum's Proof-of-Stake transition post-Merge. Post-Shapella upgrade acceleration (May 2023) added $19.3 billion TVL in 10 months despite continued market uncertainty.
流動質押於加密寒冬中脫穎而出，在極困難時期仍能擴大市佔。Lido Finance佔據全以太坊質押超過29%，TVL由約200億美元高峰增至2024年超過300億美元，反映以太坊合併後轉用POS機制帶來結構性優勢。Shapella升級（2023年5月）後10個月即再增193億TVL，即使市場持續不明朗仍見加速增長。
Revenue exceeded budget by 147% in recent periods despite 15% workforce reduction, proving operational efficiency during market stress. Rocket Pool maintained #2 position with 2.8% market share through consistent decentralized node operator expansion, experiencing only 3 withdrawal days throughout 2022. The liquid staking sector solved the fundamental "incompossibility" problem of staking participation versus DeFi yield generation, creating genuine utility independent of speculative trading.
雖然裁員15%，收入卻比預算多出147%，顯示熊市下依然擁有卓越運營效率。Rocket Pool一直穩守第二位，市佔2.8%，持續擴展去中心化節點營運，2022年全年只出現過3天提款。流動質押板塊徹底解決了「質押參與與DeFi收益無法兼容」的基本矛盾，創出脫離投機炒作的實用價值。
Cross-chain infrastructure development accelerated during bear market conditions as projects focused on fundamental interoperability rather than token speculation. LayerZero raised $120 million Series B at $3 billion valuation in April 2023 during peak bear market, connecting 50+ blockchains with 132+ million cross-chain messages and over $50 billion in transfer value. GitHub activity doubled in the past 12 months despite market conditions, while successful Stargate acquisition demonstrated strategic consolidation.
跨鏈基建項目於熊市期間加速發展，專注基本兼容性而非炒幣。LayerZero於2023年4月熊市高峰時B輪融資1.2億美元，估值30億，現已連接逾50條鏈，訊息數超1.32億，轉帳總額超500億美元。過去12個月GitHub活動大增一倍，而成功收購Stargate更展示策略性整合優勢。
Wormhole recovered completely from the 2022 $325 million hack through enhanced security measures, connecting 20+ chains through Guardian network architecture. The successful W token airdrop (approximately $1 billion distribution) during 2024 recovery provided community rewards while maintaining most adopted status by transaction volume. Axelar achieved $1 billion valuation through five funding rounds totaling $113.8 million, processing 1.823 million cross-chain transactions worth $8.62 billion through the most decentralized approach with 75 Proof-of-Stake validators.
Wormhole於2022年3.25億美元駭客事件後，透過強化安全措施重拾信心，現以Guardian架構連接超過20條鏈。2024年復甦時進行W幣空投，總額約10億美元，以交易量計仍為最常用跨鏈協議。Axelar透過五輪融資共1.138億美元，估值達10億美元，並以75個POS驗證人實現最去中心化運作，處理182萬宗跨鏈交易，總值約8.62億美元。
Zero-knowledge rollup development continued despite extreme technical challenges during the bear market, with Starknet launching Alpha Mainnet in November 2022 during peak market stress. Over 100+ projects building on platform demonstrated developer commitment to technical innovation rather than speculative development. Theoretical 1M+ transactions per second capability through custom Cairo language provided optimization benefits despite steeper learning curve requirements.
零知識Rollup技術即使在技術極高難度與熊市壓力下也持續推進，Starknet於2022年11月熊市高峰推出Alpha主網，現有超過100個項目進行開發，印證開發者對技術創新的長遠承諾，多於投機導向。訂製Cairo語言理論上可達每秒逾百萬交易，即使學習曲線較為陡峭，仍帶來明顯優化紅利。
zkSync Era launched mainnet in March 2023 with strong EVM compatibility attracting developers during bear market recovery, while Scroll achieved mainnet launch in October 2023 following $80 million raised at $1.8 billion valuation. By 2025, Scroll reached $748 million TVL as 3rd largest Ethereum L2, demonstrating superior bytecode compatibility versus competitors. EVM equivalence provided seamless developer experience during the challenging transition period from bull to bear market conditions.
zkSync Era於2023年3月主網上線，展現優異EVM兼容，吸引大批開發者於熊市反彈期加入。Scroll於2023年10月主網上線，並以1.8億美元估值成功融資8,000萬美元。至2025年，Scroll TVL達7.48億美元，成為以太坊第三大L2，展示其程式碼兼容性較同儕領先。EVM等同性為開發者於牛熊轉換期提供無縫體驗。
Regional ecosystem analysis
Asian markets emerged as the dominant force in crypto development during the bear market, growing from a supporting role to commanding 32% of global crypto developers by 2024. India's remarkable ascent from 10th to 2nd place globally in developer concentration occurred precisely during the most challenging market conditions, contributing 17% of new developer talent to the global ecosystem. This shift represented fundamental structural change from speculative Western trading to utility-focused Asian infrastructure development.
亞洲市場於熊市期間躍升為加密開發的主導力量，從輔助地位進升至2024年全球開發者32%都在亞洲。印度正正於此困難時刻，全球開發者密度由第10位急升至第2位，為全球生態貢獻17%新增開發人才。這轉變反映整體由投機性西方交易市場，轉向以實用為主的亞洲基建開發，結構性大調整。
The APAC region achieved 69% year-over-year increase in crypto activity value, becoming the fastest-growing region despite global market contraction. Vietnam, Pakistan, and other Asian nations demonstrated strong adoption metrics focused on practical applications including remittances, cross-border payments, and DeFi participation. Regulatory clarity in several Asian jurisdictions provided operational certainty during maximum global uncertainty, enabling continued development and adoption during Western market chaos.
亞太區加密活動總值按年大升69%，成為全球市值收縮下增長最快地區。越南、巴基斯坦等多國表現突出，重點應用於匯款、跨境支付及DeFi參與。亞洲多地監管趨明確，為全球動盪中帶來營運保障，使當地生態能於西方混亂時繼續發展和普及。
European regulatory advantages through MiCA framework implementation provided institutional confidence during bear market uncertainty, driving euro-referenced stablecoin growth by 89% month-over-month to $7.5 billion by June 2025. European crypto adoption reached 8.9% in 2025, boosted by regulatory clarity contrasting with US enforcement uncertainty. Strong focus on regulated custodial wallets and compliance-first approaches attracted institutional capital during flight-to-quality periods.
歐洲則憑MiCA法規框架建立監管優勢，於熊市下帶動機構信心。歐元掛鈎穩定幣於2025年6月單月增長89%，規模達75億美元。2025年歐洲加密普及率升至8.9%，受惠於監管清晰（相對美國執法不確定性鮮明）。重視受監管的託管錢包與合規優先策略，吸引資金於避險期間流入。
The European approach emphasized infrastructure development over speculation, with substantial investments in professional custody solutions, audit practices, and regulatory compliance frameworks. This positioning enabled European projects to capture institutional capital during bear market conditions when other regions faced regulatory uncertainty and enforcement actions.
歐洲一貫重視基建發展多於炒賣，積極投資專業託管、審計、合規架構。這定價模式讓歐洲項目於熊市、市場其他地區監管不明時吸納更多機構資金。
Latin American adoption growth achieved second-fastest regional performance with 42.5% year-over-year growth during global bear market conditions. Argentina ($91.1 billion), Brazil ($90.3 billion), and Venezuela (110% growth) drove regional adoption through practical cryptocurrency usage rather than speculative trading. Stablecoin dominance reached 43.6% of user engagement for daily spending and cross-border payments, demonstrating real utility during currency instability periods.
拉丁美洲加密採用增長全球第二快，熊市下按年增長42.5%。阿根廷（911億美元）、巴西（903億美元）、委內瑞拉（增長110%）等均以實用化應用帶動普及，而非純投機。穩定幣用戶比例佔高達43.6%，多用於日常消費及跨境支付，證明於貨幣不穩時真正發揮作用。
Strong correlation between currency devaluation and crypto adoption rates proved cryptocurrency's utility as inflation hedge and store of value during economic uncertainty. Regional adoption focused heavily on remittances and capital preservation rather than speculative investment, creating sustainable usage patterns independent of global crypto market cycles.
該地區貨幣貶值與加密採用率高度相關，證明加密貨幣可作抗通脹及價值儲存之用。當地主要用於匯款及保值，多於投資炒作，形成與全球加密牛熊周期無關的可持續使用習慣。
African infrastructure development emphasized mobile-first adoption with 72.9% of transactions occurring on smartphones, enabling grassroots adoption during bear market conditions. Sub-Saharan Africa experienced significant DeFi activity increases while blockchain-based remittances comprised 9.6% of global flows by 2025. Nigeria led global youth engagement with 74% of holders under 30, demonstrating demographic advantages for long-term crypto adoption.
非洲基建重視流動裝置使用，72.9%交易用手機進行，令基層於熊市亦能普及採用。撒哈拉以南非洲DeFi活動顯著提升，區塊鏈匯款於2025年已佔全球9.6%。尼日利亞主導全球年輕人參與，該國持幣者中74%屬30歲以下，展現長遠人口紅利利好加密普及。
African development focused on practical solutions for financial inclusion, cross-border payments, and economic participation rather than speculative trading. This utility-first approach created resilient adoption patterns independent of global market cycles, positioning African markets for sustained growth regardless of speculative boom-bust cycles.
非洲市場發展重視金融普及、跨境支付及經濟參與等實用方案，不以投機交易為主，造就與全球市場周期無關的堅實採用模式，令其長遠增長更具韌性，不論牛熊或炒風都可保持發展。
Failure analysis: what didn't survive
Terra ecosystem collapse in May （下文未給出，未翻譯）2022 年可謂加密貨幣歷史上最轟烈嘅失敗，僅僅一週內透過演算法穩定幣機制，摧毀咗 450 億美元市值，而呢套機制最終證明本質上係有根本性缺陷。UST 喺 2022 年 5 月 9 日 15:00 UTC 開始脫鈎，引發「死亡螺旋」，因為 UST-LUNA 嘅鑄造/銷毀機制喺極端市況下徹底失靈。LUNA 價格由 $80 跌到幾乎歸零（5 月 12 日），同時更廣泛生態系統完全停止開發，開發者亦大量撤離。
Anchor Protocol 承諾嘅不可持續 20% APY，令 75% UST 供應集中喺單一平台，卻無一個可持續長遠收入模式。大型風投公司爆出巨大虧損，包括 Hashed VC（35 億美元未實現收益損失）、Delphi Digital（未公開但「巨大未實現虧損」），以及 Galaxy Digital（4 億美元直接投資損失）。Terraform Labs 喺 2024 年 1 月申請破產，創辦人 Do Kwon 更面臨詐騙指控，象徵整個生態系統徹底放棄。
FTX 連鎖效應有系統性地摧毀咗依賴 Alameda Research 資金以及 FTX 基礎架構嘅項目，充分顯示去中心化系統依賴中心化單一點帶嚟嘅風險。Maps.me 同 Oxygen 等項目直接受影響，有 95% 代幣凍結喺 FTX，而 80 億美元嘅用戶資金缺口令整個生態出現流動性危機。紅杉資本對 FTX 投資 1.5 億美元打成零，唔少 DeFi 項目亦永久失去資金同開發資源。
獲 Alameda 支持嘅投資組合公司迅速出現資金短缺，團隊即時解散，而二級市場代幣價格更全線暴跌。FTX 連鎖反應嘅系統性影響，彰顯業界分散融資來源及運營獨立性嘅重要性。
遊戲代幣大跌，受 play-to-earn 模式失敗影響，突顯咗大量投機型 GameFi 項目背後不可持續嘅代幣經濟學。Axie Infinity 嘅 SLP 代幣喺 2022 年 2 月失去 99% 市值，用戶量由高峰大跌 90%，只剩大約 400,000 活躍用戶。再加上 2022 年 3 月北韓黑客入侵 Ronin，造成 6.2 億美元損失，營運挑戰加劇，而 SLP 鑄幣比焚毀每日高出四倍，令系統不可持續。
StepN 以及更多 play-to-earn 項目都展示出類似龐氏騙局經濟模型，需要不斷有新玩家加入先可以維持代幣價格同獎勵空間。發展團隊陸續將宣傳重點剔除「play-to-earn」用語，多項學者計劃崩潰，特別影響依賴 Axie 代幣收入嘅菲律賓勞工。熊市淘汰晒投機玩家，徹底曝露行業根本經濟模型缺陷。
中心化借貸平台倒閉，令超過 150 億美元客戶資金蒸發，背後係因為過度槓桿同極度差劣風險管理。Celsius Network 欠 10 萬多名債權人 47 億美元，資產與股本比率高達 19:1，CEO Alex Mashinsky 更喺 2023 年 7 月被控證券詐騙及被捕。BlockFi 欠 10 萬多名債權人 10 億美元，當中 6.8 億美元未還比 Alameda Research，而 Genesis Global Capital 欠最大 50 位債權人 35 億美元。
Voyager Digital 客戶預計最多只可追回 35% 資金，而 Genesis 崩潰導致 Gemini Earn 340,600 個客戶資金遭凍結。呢啲失敗案例，證明中心化託管及高收益承諾風險極高，而多州監管機構頒發禁令，揭示大規模合規違規。整個中心化借貸業務喺加密寒冬徹底被淘汰，為業界提供咗可持續 DeFi（去中心化）同不可持續 CeFi（中心化）商業模式深刻教訓。
關鍵成功因素
優良資金管理，係生還者同犧牲者嘅最大分野——保守財務規劃同資產多元化令項目可喺極端市場波動下穩定營運。成功項目無論市況好壞都保持 18-24 個月運作儲備，同時策略性儲備包括項目代幣、穩定幣、比特幣或以太幣維持穩定。平均買入（DCA）策略有助熊市長期累積資產，而嚴選已審計 DeFi 協議進行資金部署，亦可避免過度風險。
MakerDAO 轉型實體資產抵押（到 2023 年累計 27 億美元以上），帶來穩定收入來源，無需依賴加密市場波動；Solana Foundation 因 FTX 曝險極低（現金等值資產不足 1%），因此得以持續運作。風險管理措施，例如止損訂單同組合分散，有效減低重大損失，而參與 staking 協議亦為熊市中帶來被動收入。
團隊留才靠完善激勵機制，對於延長熊市下保持開發動力至關重要。長期代幣解鎖時程令成員利益同項目成敗深度綁定，而投資工程師教育同參與業界會議，有利社群凝聚。遠程優先組織運作方便招攬全球人才，唔受地區限制，而明確使命有利吸納真正具有長遠建設志向嘅成員。
Ethereum Foundation 喺 2025 年進行組織重整，鞏固核心開發能力同時提升營運效率；Solana 2024 年開發者增長 83%，即使巨幅價格調整同 FTX 陰影，社群仍見韌力。策略性招聘愈益集中於風險管理、商業拓展同技術創新，而合作關係漸由全職擴展轉型，以服務供應商模式為主。
項目產品市場契合度（PMF）靠著功能導向開發，令增長無需依賴投機炒作。流動質押解決基本矛盾（質押參與 v.s. DeFi 收益），跨鏈設施滿足真正互操作需求，而開發工具亦有助推動生態擴張。依賴真實費用及服務收入而非單靠代幣升值，才有可持續商業模式。
企業採納靠品牌合作（如 Polygon 與 Disney、Adobe、Meta 合作）獲得持續收入，即使行業波動亦能維持現金流，而合規運營提升機構採納率。營造社群方面，強調困難時期公開溝通，以維持持份者信任，而將產品開發焦點由投機導向改爲功能用途導向，創造長遠價值。
技術創新提升嘅步伐冇因熊市而放緩，證明真實開發承諾而非時機投機者。Ethereum 成功完成 Merge、Shanghai、Cancun-Deneb 等升級，展現壓力下技術執行能力。Uniswap V4（熊市期間 18+ 個月開發）帶來革命性勾子架構（hook architecture）+ 無限自訂可能，而 Aave V3 多鏈部署及 GHO 穩定幣推出，同時拓闊收入來源。
注重安全，例如提升審計要求同漏洞賞金制度（Uniswap 設 $1,550 萬賞金計劃），喺極度不明朗市況中為機構建立信心。多鏈部署策略令項目地理與技術佈局更分散，而開源協作同社群貢獻則進一步強化生態抗壓能力。
市場格局變化，同新贏家／輸家
Layer 1 賽道現已經歷根本性重組，加密寒冬下 Ethereum 憑技術升級同 Layer 2 生態爆發鞏固主導地位。儘管核心開發者總數按年減少 17%，但具 2 年以上經驗嘅以太開發者反而增長 21%；Layer 2 開發按年增長 67%，每月活躍開發者達 3,592 名。隨著 74% 多鏈開發者選擇 EVM 兼容鏈，Ethereum 儼然成為智能合約平台默認方案。
Solana 喺 2024 年開發者按年增長驚人，達 83%，即使價格暴跌 94% 同 FTX 阻滯後，全球新入行開發者已成第一選擇，市佔率增長最勁。去中心化交易所（DEX）佔全球交易量 81%，全年處理 5,740 億美元；TVL 由 2.06 億升至 64 億美元，證明生態彈性。印度地區領導地位確立，以及全球新開發者數量首位，成為以太坊主要競爭對手。
DeFi 協議市場體現更集中趨勢，專注功能用途及可持續收入平台搶佔高地，源於實質產品與市場需求契合。Uniswap 憑 V4 創新與 10+ 鏈多部署繼續領航 DEX；Aave 2022 Q4 熊市期間每日活躍用戶增長 180%，展現出色執行力。MakerDAO 融合實體資產（27 億美元），製造穩定收入來源，不再受加密市場影響；Compound 全新架構為機構採納鋪路。
跨鏈基建成關鍵賽道，LayerZero、Wormhole、Axelar 憑真正互操作性佔據數十億美元市場份額。流動質押增長領先，Lido Finance 占據以太坊質押逾 29%，該行業 TVL 於熊市由 200 億升至 300+ 億美元。
開發者心態轉變，反映出根本性轉型——from speculative development toward infrastructure and utility-focused projects. Multi-chain development surged from less than 10% in 2015 to 34% in 2024, while geographic concentration shifted toward Asia (32% of global developers) from North American speculation-driven development. Experienced developer retention (27% growth for 2+ year developers) demonstrated long-term commitment to crypto infrastructure despite market volatility.
由早期的投機發展轉向基建及實用性項目，多鏈開發由2015年少於10%急升至2024年34%，而地理分佈則由以北美投機驅動的開發逐步轉為亞洲主導（佔全球開發者32%）。具兩年以上經驗的開發者留存率增長27%，反映即使面對市場波動，行業對加密基建的長遠承諾。
Enterprise partnership patterns shifted toward regulated, compliance-first approaches with institutional custody, audit practices, and regulatory framework adherence becoming mandatory for serious institutional adoption. Developer tools and infrastructure achieved sustained growth independent of market cycles, while gaming tokens and NFT speculation experienced near-complete elimination from serious development focus.
企業合作模式逐漸轉向合規為先，重視監管、機構級託管、審計標準及法規遵從，已成為嚴肅機構採納的必須條件。開發工具及基建即使脫離市場週期亦持續增長，而遊戲代幣及NFT投機相關的開發重心則幾乎完全消失。
Institutional preference patterns crystallized around regulated, audited, and utility-focused protocols with proven track records and sustainable business models. Bitcoin and Ethereum achieved institutional legitimacy through ETF approvals, with BlackRock alone purchasing $50 billion Bitcoin through IBIT while Ethereum ETFs achieved $13 billion assets under management. Stablecoin circulation reached all-time highs ($196 billion) with $81 billion daily transaction volume, demonstrating institutional payment rail adoption.
機構投資者明確傾向監管、審計及實用性為本並具備成功記錄和可持續商業模式的協議。比特幣和以太幣透過ETF獲批正式獲機構認可，僅BlackRock經IBIT已購入500億美元比特幣，以太坊ETF的管理資產亦達到130億美元。穩定幣流通總值創新高（1,960億美元），日成交量高達810億美元，顯示已被採納為機構級支付管道。
Regional preferences shifted toward jurisdictions with regulatory clarity, particularly Asian markets (69% year-over-year activity growth) and European MiCA framework implementation. Traditional finance integration accelerated through major institutions like Stripe, Mastercard, and Visa launching stablecoin spending products, while 721 institutional investors now hold MicroStrategy as Bitcoin proxy investment vehicle.
地區性偏好向監管明確地區傾斜，尤其亞洲市場年度活動增長達69%，歐洲則因MiCA法規實行而受惠。傳統金融融入步伐加快，Stripe、Mastercard、Visa等巨頭推出穩定幣消費產品，另有721間機構投資者以MicroStrategy作比特幣代理投資工具。
Current recovery patterns
2024 institutional investment surge represented fundamental market maturation from retail speculation to professional asset allocation, with BlackRock, MicroStrategy, and Fidelity combining for approximately $94 billion Bitcoin purchases throughout the year. BlackRock's $50 billion through iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) established cryptocurrency as fastest-growing investment product in history, outpacing initial gold ETF performance while achieving $10 billion daily trading volumes by March.
2024年機構資金的激增，標誌市場由零售投機轉型為專業資產配置。BlackRock、MicroStrategy及Fidelity全年合共購買約940億美元比特幣。BlackRock透過iShares Bitcoin ETF（IBIT）購入500億美元比特幣，令加密貨幣成為史上增長最快的投資產品，表現甚至超越早期黃金ETF，今年三月單日交易量高達100億美元。
Ethereum ETF approval on May 23, 2024 brought eight institutional products to market achieving $13 billion assets under management, while median crypto fund size grew 65.1% in 2024 to $41.3 million despite extended fundraising timelines from 1.1 to 2.4 years. Traditional finance integration through Stripe, Mastercard, and Visa stablecoin products provided institutional payment infrastructure, while MicroStrategy's 450,000+ Bitcoin holdings attracted 721 institutional investors seeking cryptocurrency exposure.
2024年5月23日以太坊ETF獲批推出八隻機構產品，合共有130億美元資產管理規模。即使募資周期由1.1年延長至2.4年，2024年加密基金中位規模亦增長65.1%至4,130萬美元。Stripe、Mastercard和Visa的穩定幣創新產品為機構級支付系統打下基礎；而MicroStrategy坐擁逾45萬枚比特幣資產，吸引721間機構投資者以其作為加密敞口。
Developer talent return accelerated through 2024 with 39,148 new developers entering crypto despite continued bear market conditions, while monthly active crypto developers reached 23,613 by November 2024. Established developers with 2+ years experience grew 27% representing 70% of all code commits, demonstrating experience retention and quality improvement over quantity expansion. Multi-chain development reached 34% of developers (up from less than 10% in 2015) while geographic diversification continued with Asia commanding 32% of global Web3 developers.
2024年即使持續熊市，開發者加速回流，新入行人數達39,148人，至2024年11月每月活躍開發者達到23,613人。具2年以上經驗者增長27%，佔全部代碼提交量70%，顯示經驗及質素較純粹追求人數增長重要。多鏈開發比例升至34%（2015年不足10%），地理分佈多元化，亞洲佔全球Web3開發32%。
Regional developer distribution favored Asian markets with India contributing 17% of new talent while maintaining #2 global developer ranking achieved during bear market conditions. Development activity focused increasingly on infrastructure and utility rather than speculation, with continued emphasis on DeFi, scaling solutions, and enterprise integration rather than gaming tokens and NFT speculation.
地區開發者分佈偏重亞洲，印度佔新晉人才能17%，並持續保持全球第二大開發者來源，在熊市依然有亮眼表現。開發重心由投機轉至基建與實用性，包括DeFi、擴展方案及企業級應用，而遊戲代幣和NFT投機相關活動則大為減少。
User activity recovery demonstrated selective quality improvement rather than broad speculative return, with current 24-hour DEX volume reaching $18.2 billion combining institutional and retail participation. Stablecoin circulation achieved all-time highs ($196 billion) with $81 billion daily transaction volume, indicating payment rail adoption rather than speculative trading. NFT minting volume reached $1.5 billion with 67 million minting wallets, though focused on utility rather than speculative art collection trading.
用戶活躍度復甦集中於質素提升而非廣泛投機，現時去中心化交易所24小時成交量達182億美元，包括機構及零售參與。穩定幣流通值新高（1,960億美元），日成交量810億美元，反映作為支付管道已獲廣泛應用而非純投機用途。NFT鑄造總量達15億美元、6,700萬個錢包，焦點亦由純收藏投機轉向實用性。
DeFi Total Value Locked witnessed substantial growth across mature protocols with sustainable revenue models, while speculative and unsustainable projects remained eliminated from serious market participation. Cross-chain transaction volumes increased significantly as infrastructure matured, with LayerZero processing 132+ million messages and Axelar handling 1.823 million transactions worth $8.62 billion.
成熟DeFi協議的鎖倉總值(TVL)因可持續收入模式而大幅增長，而投機性及不可持續項目則已被市場淘汰。跨鏈生態基建日趨成熟，跨鏈交易量顯著增加，例如LayerZero處理超過1.32億條消息，Axelar處理182.3萬宗跨鏈交易，總金額達8.62億美元。
Institutional re-engagement patterns emphasized regulatory compliance and professional custody solutions rather than speculative trading or yield farming. Bitcoin ETFs became fastest-growing investment product in history while providing institutional-grade custody, audit practices, and regulatory compliance frameworks. European MiCA implementation and potential US regulatory clarity under changing political leadership provided operational certainty for institutional participation.
機構重投格局強調合規監管及專業託管方案，已不再追捧投機交易或農場挖礦策略。比特幣ETF成為歷來增長最快投資產品，同時確保機構級託管、審計及法規遵從。歐洲MiCA法規實施及美國政局變動下可能帶來的監管明朗化，為機構參與提供運作確定性。
Corporate adoption focused on practical applications including cross-border payments, treasury management, and blockchain infrastructure rather than speculative token trading. The shift toward utility-based institutional adoption represented fundamental maturation from previous cycles focused primarily on speculative retail participation and price appreciation rather than genuine business applications.
企業應用更多聚焦於跨境支付、財資管理及區塊鏈基建等實際用途，不再僅僅是投機性代幣交易。機構導向實用性的趨勢，反映市場由以往單靠零售投機、價格升值，正式邁進成熟重視商業應用的新階段。
Lessons learned and future implications
Sustainable business model development proved essential for long-term survival during extended bear market conditions, with successful projects demonstrating genuine revenue generation through fees, services, and utility rather than relying exclusively on token appreciation and speculative trading volume. MakerDAO's real-world asset integration, Aave's GHO stablecoin revenue retention, and liquid staking's structural advantage from Ethereum PoS transition created stable income streams independent of market cycles.
可持續商業模式成為長期熊市下項目生存的關鍵，成功的項目俱以收費、服務及實用性創造真實收入來源，不再只依賴代幣升值或投機交易量。MakerDAO推動實體資產整合，Aave的GHO穩定幣收入留存，以及流動質押抓緊以太坊PoS轉型契機，皆建立起與市場週期脫鉤的穩定現金流。
The fundamental lesson emerged that utility-focused development with real problem-solving capabilities survived and thrived while speculative ventures collapsed entirely. Cross-chain infrastructure, developer tools, scaling solutions, and institutional-grade protocols continued growth throughout the most challenging market conditions, while gaming tokens, algorithmic stablecoins, and over-leveraged CeFi platforms experienced complete elimination.
基本教訓是：重視實用性、真正解決問題的開發能在逆市生存並壯大，相反純粹投機項目已徹底出局。跨鏈基建、開發工具、擴容方案及機構級協議即使在困難環境下仍持續增長，而遊戲代幣、算法穩定幣及高槓桿CeFi平台則完全被淘汰。
Treasury management sophistication became mandatory for serious project survival, with successful organizations maintaining 18-24 month operational runways, diversified asset holdings, and conservative financial planning independent of token price movements. Dollar-cost averaging, strategic reserves, and yield generation through audited protocols enabled operational continuity, while excessive leverage and speculation-dependent cash flows caused systematic failures.
財資管理專業化成為項目長存的必要條件，成功團隊維持18-24個月運作準備金，多元化資產組合，以及與代幣價格無關的保守財務規劃。平均成本法、策略儲備及經審計協議產生的收益，保障運作連續性；高槓桿及過度依賴投機的現金流則導致系統性失敗。
Team retention strategies through long-term incentive alignment proved crucial for maintaining development momentum during extended downturns. Mission-driven hiring focused on "builders" rather than speculators, remote-first global talent access, and educational investment in developer growth created sustainable organizational structures. The 27% growth in experienced developers (2+ years) during bear market conditions demonstrated the importance of quality retention over quantity expansion.
長期激勵對維持開發動力甚為關鍵。以使命和技術為核心的招聘傾向吸引「建設者」而非投機者，優先支持遙距全球人才佈局，加大對開發者成長的投資，造就可持續發展團隊。熊市期間具2年以上經驗開發者增加27%，證明質素留人遠比單純擴張更為重要。
Regulatory compliance and transparent operations became essential for institutional adoption and long-term sustainability, with successful projects implementing professional audit practices, regulatory compliance frameworks, and institutional custody solutions. The $3.6 billion in federal penalties and 53% increase in SEC enforcement actions eliminated non-compliant projects while providing clearer operational boundaries for legitimate development.
監管合規及透明營運已成為機構採納及長遠發展的重心。成功項目均實施專業審計、法規合規架構及機構級資產託管。3.6億美元罰款及美SEC執法行動增加53%，淘汰了不合規項目，亦為正規發展釐清界線。
Geographic diversification toward utility-focused regions with regulatory clarity proved advantageous, as Asian markets (32% of global developers) emphasized infrastructure development over speculation while European MiCA framework implementation provided institutional confidence. The shift from North American speculation toward Asian utility represented fundamental structural change in global crypto development patterns.
地理多元化、重視實用並監管明確的地區證明具優勢，例如亞洲（佔全球開發者32%）著重基建而非投機，歐洲MiCA框架提升機構信心。由北美投機轉向亞洲實用，已成全球加密發展格局的根本結構性變革。
Final thoughts
Due diligence frameworks require fundamental updating to emphasize sustainable business models, experienced team retention, regulatory compliance, and utility-focused development over speculative tokenomics and marketing hype. The six-pillar risk assessment covering governance, regulatory compliance, digital asset operations, technical security, market dynamics, and operational resilience provides comprehensive evaluation methodology for serious institutional investment.
盡職調查框架需徹底更新，應優先關注可持續商業模式、團隊經驗留存、規管合規及實用性發展，取代過往只看投機經濟模型及市場炒作。涵蓋管治、合規、數碼資產運作、技術安全、市場動態及運作韌性的六大支柱風險評估法，為嚴肅機構投資提供完整評核標準。
Multi-chain development capabilities and interoperability features became essential evaluation criteria as 34% of developers now work across multiple blockchains, while revenue generation through actual fees and services rather than token appreciation alone indicates sustainable long-term viability. Developer quality metrics focusing on committed experienced developers (2+ years) rather than total developer count provides better indication of project sustainability and technical capability.
多鏈開發及互通性成為評估重點，目前已有34%開發者同時覆蓋多個鏈；能否通過收費及服務產生收入而非單靠代幣升值，亦成為持續發展指標。評估指標應重視2年以上經驗的持續貢獻開發者比例比純粹人數更能反映項目可持續性及技術實力。
Investment strategy evolution toward infrastructure-grade projects with professional custody, comprehensive auditing, and regulatory compliance frameworks became mandatory for institutional participation. The remarkable success of projects continuing development during bear market conditions (Ethereum's technical upgrades, Uniswap's V4 development, Aave's product diversification) demonstrated the importance of development-first evaluation criteria over market momentum.
投資策略向基建級項目轉型，專業資產託管、全面審計及嚴格規管合規成為機構參與的基本要求。那些在熊市下繼續技術升級的項目（如以太坊技術改進、Uniswap V4、Aave產品多元化）成功證明應以發展實力為首要評核標準，而非市場熱度。Regional diversification across high-growth markets (Asia, Latin America, Africa) provides exposure to utility-focused adoption patterns rather than speculative trading, while institutional-grade infrastructure requirements ensure compatibility with professional investment frameworks. Extended due diligence incorporating on-chain analysis, cross-chain evaluation, and "Know Your Wallet" protocols enables assessment of actual blockchain activity versus stated business models.
於高增長市場（亞洲、拉丁美洲、非洲）進行地域多元化，能夠令投資者參與以實際應用為主導的採用模式，而非純粹炒賣，同時，機構級基建要求確保與專業投資框架兼容。擴展盡職審查包括鏈上分析、跨鏈評估及「認識你的錢包」協議，有助比較實際區塊鏈活動與聲稱的業務模式。
The data conclusively demonstrates that bear markets indeed favor builders, with development activity growing 5.4% and full-time developers increasing 15.2% during the most challenging period in crypto history. Projects focusing on genuine utility, sustainable business models, disciplined treasury management, and experienced team retention emerged stronger and better positioned for institutional adoption in the next growth cycle.
有數據明確顯示，熊市時期確實更有利於建設者。即使在加密歷史上最艱難的時期，開發活動仍增加了5.4%，全職開發人員亦上升了15.2%。專注於真正實用性、可持續業務模式、有紀律的財庫管理及經驗豐富團隊留任的項目，於下一輪增長周期中能更強壯、更有力吸引機構採用。
Risk assessment methodologies must prioritize stress testing and analysis of performance during previous bear markets and external shocks, while liquidity assessment evaluates market depth, exchange listings, and trading volume sustainability independent of speculative momentum. Technical audits for smart contracts and infrastructure components became mandatory, while governance analysis assesses decentralization levels, voting mechanisms, and stakeholder alignment quality.
風險評估方法必須優先考慮壓力測試及過往熊市和外部衝擊下的表現分析，而流動性評估則需分析市場深度、交易所掛牌情況及在無投機動力下的成交量可持續性。智能合約及基建組件的技術審計成為標準要求，而治理分析則評核去中心化程度、投票機制及持份者協調質素。
The crypto winter of 2022-2024 served as the most rigorous market-based due diligence process in blockchain history, eliminating speculative ventures while strengthening legitimate infrastructure projects. The geographic diversification of developers, increase in multi-chain development, continued enterprise adoption, and institutional legitimacy through ETF approval suggest a maturing industry well-positioned for sustainable long-term growth rather than speculative boom-bust cycles.
2022至2024年的加密寒冬，成為區塊鏈歷史上最嚴謹的市場導向盡職審查過程，淘汰了投機性項目，同時鞏固了正規基建發展。開發者地域分布更廣，多鏈開發增加，企業持續採用，加上ETF獲批推動機構合法性，均反映這個行業已漸趨成熟，未來更適合可持續長遠發展，而非炒賣式大起大落。
The fundamental transformation from speculation to utility creates unprecedented opportunities for serious investors, developers, and enterprises seeking blockchain infrastructure solutions with proven resilience, institutional compatibility, and sustainable business models. The projects that not only survived but thrived during crypto winter represent the foundational infrastructure for the next generation of global financial and technological systems.
由純粹炒賣轉向重視實際應用的根本性轉變，為對區塊鏈基建解決方案有要求、重視抗逆力、機構兼容性及可持續商業模式的認真投資者、開發者與企業帶來前所未有的機遇。能夠在加密寒冬中不只生存，還能蓬勃發展的項目，正是未來新一代全球金融及科技系統的基礎設施。