四月初，S&P 500因就業數據表現優於預期上漲1.5%，比特幣隨後數小時內暴漲3.2%。以太坊跟漲2.8%，各大交易所成交量激增至過去30天均值的27%。這種同步波動並非巧合——它體現出自比特幣誕生以來，傳統股票與加密市場日益複雜且劇烈演變的關聯。
對投資人、交易者與金融分析師來說，理解這層關係已成為制定有效市場策略的關鍵。隨著數位資產從邊緣實驗成長為與主流金融接軌、規模達4.2兆美元的市場，其與股票市場的關聯不斷加深、削弱與轉變，值得深入檢視。
當中本聰於2009年推出比特幣時，它幾乎與華爾街完全隔離。早期加密愛好者期望它作為對傳統金融的替代——一種能避開市場波動與央行政策影響的數位資產。
這種信仰在比特幣2017年首輪大多頭時依然維持。當時加密幣價格飆升近1400%，但其漲跌與主要股指的相關性極低。2017年比特幣與S&P 500的皮爾森相關係數僅0.15，顯示雙方幾乎無明顯聯動。
2020年新冠疫情引發史無前例的市場波動，比特幣與股票於三月流動性危機期間聯袂下挫。於此期間，相關係數飆升至0.6——這在數年前無法想像。
隨著機構投資人加入，市場整合加速。到2023年，比特幣成交量的約74%來自機構投資者，而2017年僅20%。各大企業將比特幣納入資產負債表，傳統金融業亦開設加密交易專區與投資產品。
現在進入2025年，這種關係更趨成熟。據Bloomberg Terminal數據，過去一年，比特幣與納斯達克綜合指數的30天滾動相關係數平均為0.51，遠高於過往，但期間也出現同漲同跌與脫鉤狀況。
加密幣為何跟著股票走？
投資人基礎重疊
最直接的牽連來自於共同的投資者陣營。曾對加密保持懷疑的機構投資者，如今會將部分資產配置於數位資產。當這些大戶調整整體風險曝險時，同時衝擊兩大市場。
金融數據公司Chainalysis報告，機構目前掌控約63%的比特幣流通供給，2021年時為48%。這些巨頭多數也在股票大有部位，自然加深雙邊聯動。
風險偏好循環
加密幣被視為「風險資產」，投資人對經濟看好並追求高報酬時表現突出；遇不確定或壓力時，投資人通常同時減少加密與高增長股的曝險，轉向政府債或黃金。
美聯儲政策正好體現這個現象。2025年1月美聯儲釋出降息訊號時，納斯達克與比特幣齊漲——科技指數升3.1%，比特幣三天勁揚7.2%。反之，三月的通膨數據出乎市場意料，兩者同步下跌。
科技與金融創新重疊
金融科技與加密基礎設施融合，令市場關聯加深。傳統金融機構開設加密交易服務，區塊鏈技術也漸成主流金融運作基石。
這種科技融合也延伸到市場基礎設施。2025年2月，貝萊德的現貨以太幣ETF於NYSE上市，首月吸金逾50億美元。這類產品直接將加密資產價格和交易行為與傳統交易機制鏈結。
天然盟友還是偶然同伴？
加密幣與科技股的相關值得特別關注。自2022年起，比特幣與納斯達克的相關性（平均0.45–0.65）明顯高於S&P 500（常介於0.35–0.55）。
多項因素解釋這層高度關聯：
技術創新基礎
兩大領域都奠基於創新。推動科技股評價的技術進步、網絡效應與數位轉型，同樣有利加密生態。
2025年2月，Nvidia宣布AI處理技術突破，股價暴漲9.2%。AI加密幣如Render Token、Fetch.ai分別大漲12.6%及15.1%，顯示技術創新能同時帶動兩個產業。
財務表現特徵
科技公司與許多加密項目都重視成長勝於即時盈利，依靠網絡效應並憑未來潛力爭取高估值，而非眼前財報。
因此這兩類資產都對利率變化極為敏感，因其撼動未來現金流的現值。2025年三月聯準會上調利率預期後，納斯達克與主要加密幣同步下跌，投資人重新評價高成長資產。
人才流動重疊
大量科技人才跨足加密產業，鞏固兩大領域的聯繫。僅2024年，就有逾3,800位專業人士自FAANG（臉書/Meta、蘋果、亞馬遜、Netflix、Google/Alphabet）轉換跑道至加密企業（LinkedIn數據）。
這種專業與想法的交流，讓兩者在市場發展及風險回應上更自然協同。
當加密市場自闢蹊徑
儘管聯動加深，加密市場仍不時出現所謂「脫鉤」——獨立於股市的特殊動態。
監管催化
加密市場對監管消息極為敏感，而這些變化對整體股市影響有限。2025年3月，美國證券交易委員會批准了針對去中心化金融平台的監管框架，去中心化金融DeFi領域兩日內大漲18.3%，股市則幾乎沒變。
反之，歐洲監理機構2025年2月宣佈加重加密課稅，比特幣即跌6.7%，即便當天股市大漲。這些以政策推動的「脫鉤」，反映監管可短期扭曲傳統聯動。
供給及技術事件
有別於股票，許多加密幣有既定供應規劃與技術變數，這些會獨立推升價格。2024年4月比特幣第四次「減半」之後，三個月內其與納斯達克相關度跌到僅0.21，比特幣表現大幅超越股票。
其它技術事件如協議升級、代幣空投等，亦可推動短期脫勾的走勢。
新興市場採用熱潮
不穩定貨幣或有限銀行服務地區的加密採用，可推動需求，與已開發市場動向分道揚鑣。2024年末，阿根廷貨幣危機期間，比特幣在當地交易量暴增347%，本地價格較全球高出12%，與美股漲跌無太多聯動。
此區域性採用增強了對全球波動的韌性。Chainalysis數據顯示，2024年新興市場加密交易量年增38%，而已開發經濟體僅增17%，顯示用戶基礎擴大，日漸脫離傳統金融動態。
推動兩大市場的無形之手
儘管某些事件可引發短暫脫鉤，長期而言，加密與股票都受同一宏觀經濟環境驅動，構成持續聯動的基石。
通膨與貨幣政策
中央銀行政策依然是兩大市場最重要的影響力之一。2025年1月，當聯準會主席鮑爾暗示暫緩升息調整時，S&P 500與比特幣立即齊漲——股市漲1.8%，比特幣24小時漲4.3%。
同樣，通膨數據也常讓兩市同向波動。四月CPI數據顯示通膨降至2.4%，激勵股票與加密幣齊漲，投資人預期貨幣環境將更有利。
Growth Indicators
成長指標
Broader economic indicators consistently influence both asset classes. Strong employment reports, manufacturing data, and consumer spending figures typically boost both stocks and cryptocurrencies, while signs of economic contraction pressure both markets downward.
廣泛的經濟指標持續影響這兩種資產類別。強勁的就業報告、製造業數據及消費支出數字，通常同時推升股票和加密貨幣市場；而經濟收縮的跡象，則會對兩個市場帶來下行壓力。
This shared sensitivity to economic fundamentals creates a backbone of correlation that persists despite periodic divergences. First-quarter GDP data exceeding expectations in April 2025 corresponded with multi-week rallies in both markets, with the S&P 500 gaining 4.2% and Bitcoin rising 7.8% over the subsequent 10 trading days.
這種對經濟基本面的共同敏感性，成為兩者之間持續存在的相關性支柱，即使偶有分歧也不會消失。2025年4月公佈的第一季GDP數據優於預期，兩大市場皆連續數週上漲，標普500指數在接下來10個交易日內上漲4.2%，比特幣則上漲7.8%。
Global Risk Sentiment
Geopolitical developments and shifts in global risk appetite affect capital flows across all asset classes. The regional banking crisis of March 2023 demonstrated how contagion fears can spread across financial systems, impacting both traditional and digital assets simultaneously.
地緣政治發展與全球風險偏好的變化，會影響所有資產類別的資金流動。2023年3月的區域銀行危機清楚展示，金融系統間的恐慌蔓延如何同時衝擊傳統與數位資產。
More recently, tensions in the South China Sea in February 2025 triggered risk-off sentiment that affected both markets, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.7% and Bitcoin falling 4.5% in a single trading session. Such events reinforce the reality that both markets now exist within the same global financial ecosystem, subject to similar investor psychology and risk assessment.
近來，2025年2月南海局勢緊張，引發市場避險情緒，兩大市場同步遭受衝擊，納斯達克指數單日下跌2.7%，比特幣則下跌4.5%。這類事件更強化了兩個市場早已處於同一全球金融生態系的事實，並受到相似的投資人心理與風險評估影響。
Institutional Integration
機構化整合
The growing institutional presence in cryptocurrency markets represents perhaps the most significant factor driving correlation with traditional equities. This integration has accelerated dramatically in recent years, reshaping market dynamics.
加密貨幣市場機構投資者的參與日益增加，這或許是推動與傳統股票市場相關性最關鍵的因素。近年來這種整合加速進行，重塑了市場動態。
ETFs and Traditional Financial Products
ETF與傳統金融商品
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 marked a watershed moment, bringing billions in institutional capital to the cryptocurrency market through familiar investment vehicles. By May 2025, these ETFs collectively managed over $36 billion in assets, with daily trading volumes regularly exceeding $1.2 billion.
2024年1月現貨比特幣ETF的核准，成為重要的分水嶺，機構資金透過熟悉的投資工具湧入加密市場，規模達數十億美元。到2025年5月，這些ETF的管理資產總額已超過360億美元，日均交易量穩定維持在12億美元以上。
This development created direct transmission mechanisms between equity market flows and cryptocurrency valuations. When broad market selling pressure emerged in March 2025, Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of $420 million over five trading days, contributing to downward pressure on Bitcoin's price that mirrored broader equity market declines.
這發展建立了股市資金流與加密貨幣估值間的直接傳導機制。2025年3月市場賣壓湧現時，比特幣ETF在5個交易日內出現4.2億美元的資金流出，助長了比特幣價格的下挫，與股市下跌形成呼應。
Corporate Treasury Adoption
企業資金運用採納
Major corporations continuing to add Bitcoin and other digital assets to their balance sheets further cements the relationship between cryptocurrencies and corporate financial health. As of April 2025, 32 public companies held Bitcoin worth over $12 billion on their balance sheets, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.
大型企業持續將比特幣及其他數位資產納入資產負債表，進一步鞏固了加密貨幣與企業財務健康間的關聯。根據Bitcoin Treasuries資料，截至2025年4月，共有32家上市公司持有超過120億美元價值的比特幣。
This integration means that factors affecting corporate valuations - interest rates, earnings expectations, and economic outlook - now directly influence cryptocurrency demand through corporate treasury activities. When MicroStrategy announced an additional $500 million Bitcoin purchase in February 2025, the company's stock and Bitcoin briefly moved in tandem as investors processed the implications for both assets.
這種整合，意味著影響企業評價的因素——如利率、盈餘預期、經濟展望——現在可透過企業金庫行為，直接影響加密貨幣的需求。2025年2月，MicroStrategy宣布再購入5億美元的比特幣後，其公司股價與比特幣均短期同步波動，反映投資人對兩種資產影響的解讀。
Professional Trading Operations
專業交易運作
Sophisticated trading firms now apply similar strategies across both markets, often using algorithms that respond to the same technical indicators and market signals. According to a JPMorgan survey, 78% of proprietary trading desks now trade both cryptocurrencies and equities, up from 45% in 2022.
精密的交易公司如今在兩大市場應用相似策略，經常利用能同時響應技術指標與市場訊號的演算法。根據JPMorgan調查，目前有78%的自營交易部門同時交易股票和加密貨幣，高於2022年的45%。
These professional operations often employ strategies that explicitly leverage correlation, including statistical arbitrage approaches that profit from temporary divergences between related assets across traditional and crypto markets. Such strategies can actually reinforce correlation over time by quickly closing gaps when prices temporarily decouple.
這些專業操作常直接運用相關性，例如利用統計套利策略，在傳統與加密資產間出現暫時性脫鉤時獲利。這類策略實際會因為價格出現分歧就迅速收斂，進而增強長期相關性。
Projecting Future Correlation Patterns
未來相關性走勢展望
As the cryptocurrency market continues maturing, its relationship with equities will likely become increasingly nuanced. Several evolving factors will shape this relationship in coming years:
隨著加密貨幣市場不斷成熟，其與股票間的關係預計將變得更為細緻。未來幾年有數項關鍵因素將持續影響這個關係：
Regulatory Clarity
監管明朗化
The ongoing development of comprehensive regulatory frameworks for digital assets will influence correlation patterns. Clear regulations that facilitate institutional participation may strengthen connections with traditional markets, while restrictive policies could temporarily increase decoupling events.
數位資產全面監管框架的持續發展，將影響相關性走勢。若規範明確並有助機構參與，會加強與傳統市場的連結；而若政策較為嚴格，則可能暫時增加脫鉤現象。
The forthcoming decisions from global financial regulators on central bank digital currencies, stablecoin oversight, and DeFi governance will be particularly consequential for how these markets interact.
全球金融監管機構對央行數位貨幣、穩定幣監管與DeFi治理的即將出爐的決策，將對市場互動格局產生重大影響。
Market Maturation
市場成熟化
As cryptocurrency markets grow more liquid and develop more sophisticated derivatives markets, their behavior may increasingly resemble traditional financial markets. The cryptocurrency options market has grown over 215% since 2023, now representing over $16 billion in daily trading volume and enabling more complex risk management strategies similar to those used in equities markets.
隨著加密貨幣市場流動性提升且衍生商品市場走向成熟，其表現日益接近傳統金融市場。自2023年以來，加密貨幣選擇權市場規模增長逾215%，目前日均交易額超過160億美元，允許機構採用與股票市場類似的複雜風險管理策略。
This infrastructure development supports institutional participation but may also reduce some of the unique market dynamics that have historically caused cryptocurrencies to diverge from equities.
這類基礎設施的建立支持機構參與，也可能削弱加密市場過去與股票市場分道揚鑣的一些獨特動能。
Mainstream Adoption Milestones
主流採用里程碑
Progress toward everyday cryptocurrency usage could potentially reduce correlation with speculative assets over time. The implementation of Bitcoin as legal tender in multiple countries since El Salvador's pioneering move in 2021 represents steps toward utility-driven valuation models rather than purely speculative ones.
隨著加密貨幣在日常生活中的應用增加，其與投機資產的相關性或許會隨時間降低。自2021年薩爾瓦多率先將比特幣納為法定貨幣，多國也陸續跟進，這標誌著價值評估模式由實用性驅動逐步取代純投機因素。
Payment processors report that cryptocurrency transaction volumes for actual goods and services increased 87% year-over-year in 2024, suggesting gradual progress toward usage patterns that might eventually reduce correlation with purely speculative assets.
支付業者資料顯示，2024年以加密貨幣支付實體商品及服務的交易量年增87%，顯示實際應用持續推進，有望逐漸削弱與單純投機資產的相關性。
Strategic Implications for Market Participants
對市場參與者的策略意涵
The evolving relationship between cryptocurrencies and stocks creates both challenges and opportunities for different market participants:
加密貨幣與股票之間不斷變化的關係，為不同市場參與者帶來機會與挑戰：
For Investors
對投資人
The strengthened correlation challenges conventional portfolio diversification strategies. When Bitcoin was uncorrelated with traditional assets, it offered clear diversification benefits despite its volatility. Current correlation patterns suggest investors may need more sophisticated approaches to achieve true diversification.
相關性的提升，使傳統投資組合多元化策略面臨挑戰。過去比特幣與傳統資產無關聯，儘管波動大，但能帶來明顯的多元化效益；如今的相關性趨勢則顯示，投資人須採用更精細的手法以實現真正分散風險。
Tactical asset allocation strategies have evolved in response, with many investment firms now treating Bitcoin as part of their "risk asset" allocation that gets adjusted alongside equity exposure based on macroeconomic conditions.
因應此變化，戰術性資產配置策略同步演進，許多投資機構現已將比特幣視為「風險資產」的一環，並依據總體經濟條件同步調整其與股票的配置比例。
For Traders
對交易人
For active traders, correlation patterns offer predictive value and arbitrage opportunities. Many quantitative trading strategies now incorporate "correlation trading" approaches that profit from temporary divergences between cryptocurrency and equity markets that are expected to reconverge.
對主動型交易者而言，相關性走勢具有預測價值與套利空間。許多量化交易策略納入了「相關性交易」模式，從加密貨幣與股票市場暫時性偏離、預期之後回歸的趨勢中獲利。
These strategies typically monitor correlation breakdowns in real-time and position for a return to established relationships - effectively betting that temporary decoupling will prove short-lived in most cases.
這類策略通常即時監控相關性瓦解，並布局預期回歸原本關係的部位，實際上是在押注大多數情境下的脫鉤僅為短暫現象。
For Businesses
對企業
For companies operating in the digital asset space, understanding correlation has operational implications. Cryptocurrency mining firms, exchanges, and service providers now routinely hedge their business exposure to account for how broader market conditions affect their revenue streams and treasury holdings.
對於身處數位資產領域的企業，理解相關性具備實質營運意義。礦業公司、交易所及服務商，現已普遍採用避險措施，以應對宏觀市場條件變化對公司營收及庫存資產的衝擊。
This corporate risk management approach increasingly resembles practices in traditional finance, with companies using derivatives and diverse treasury strategies to manage exposure to both crypto-specific and broader market factors.
這種公司風險管理方法已越來越接近傳統金融實踐，企業藉由衍生性商品與多元化資產配置策略，來管理對加密及傳統市場因素的風險曝險。
Final thoughts
結語
The relationship between cryptocurrency and equity markets continues to evolve, reflecting the integration of digital assets into the broader financial ecosystem. While correlation has generally strengthened over time, it remains dynamic - influenced by market structure, regulatory developments, technological innovation, and changing investor behavior.
加密貨幣與股票市場的關係持續變化，反映出數位資產不斷融入整體金融生態。雖然整體相關性隨時間增強，但這種關係仍具動態，受市場結構、監管發展、技術創新及投資人行為改變影響。
For market participants, this relationship demands continuous reassessment and adaptive strategies. The days when cryptocurrency could be analyzed in isolation have clearly passed, but so too has the simplistic view that digital assets merely amplify stock market movements. Instead, a more nuanced understanding recognizes both the connections and distinctions between these markets.
對市場參與者來說，這種動態關係要求不斷重新評估和調整策略。加密貨幣可以單獨分析的時代已經過去，而認為數位資產只會放大股市波動的簡單觀點也不再適用。當前更需要細緻理解兩大市場的連結與差異。
As traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets continue their convergence, correlation patterns will likely reflect this hybrid reality - with periods of tight correlation punctuated by divergences driven by factors unique to each market. This dynamic relationship ultimately reflects cryptocurrency's dual nature: as both an alternative to traditional finance and, increasingly, an extension of it.
隨著傳統金融與加密市場持續融合，相關性趨勢將反映這種混合現實——有時高度連動，有時因各自獨特因素而脫鉤。這種動態關係，最終說明了加密貨幣兼具傳統金融「替代品」及「延伸品」的雙重本質。