2025年堅挺表現的加密資產：ETH、LDO、LINK 為何與眾不同

2025 年 10 月 10 日，加密貨幣市場遭遇閃電崩盤。數小時內，超過 190 億美元槓桿部位被清算，恐慌性拋售撼動了流動性稀薄的訂單簿。比特幣當日下挫 14%（從 10 月 6 日超過 12.6 萬美元的歷史新高跌至約 10.7 萬美元）。以太幣從高點滑落逾 25%。眾多山寨幣更是重挫：部分在數分鐘內市值腰斬，之後才部分反彈。

並非所有加密資產都受創同等嚴重。有少數幾枚代幣展現“避震器”效果，跌幅極小或很快收復失土。識別這些韌性資產有助理解其背後保護因素——以及這些優勢能否持續。根據 2025 年 10 月 22 日 12:00 UTC 的數據，本報告排名自 10 月 10 日崩盤以來表現最佳的前十大加密資產（排除穩定幣），並分析其挺住風暴的原因。

最抗跌的資產橫跨各類：從“藍籌”比特幣、到利基化的隱私幣。共同特徵包括強大自然需求、槓桿有限、與良好的代幣經濟學。例如，Tron（TRX）即便在最恐慌時刻，也僅回檔約 11%，因長期持有者支持。

隱私幣 Monero（XMR）在過去 30 天反而上漲約 6%，顯示其非相關性的應用吸引了穩定籌碼。Zcash（ZEC）雖一度暴跌近 45%，卻於 24 小時內全數收復並創新高，主因是市場對隱私幣的需求暴增。這些“避震器”代幣普遍有較低投機曝險、深厚流動性或忠誠持有人，有些還有正面推力（如 ETF 上市、協議收入），即使大盤低迷，依然能產生支撐。

以下我們對每項韌性資產，分別分析其基本情境、多頭與空頭情境。雖然這些標的在 10 月考驗中證明自身實力，但也面臨自身風險——如未來解鎖、監管變化等。我們也列舉早期預警指標（如資金費率翻轉、鏈上資金流出），一旦發現相關資產韌性動搖，可及時示警。市場仍在消化震盪，理解這些代幣為何能屹立不搖，有助投資人、開發者與分析師為 2025 年第四季提前布局。

我們如何衡量「韌性」

我們定義崩盤區間為 2025 年 10 月 10 日（00:00 UTC）至 2025 年 10 月 22 日，涵蓋初始衝擊及近兩週的後市表現。分析從 10 月 10 日開盤價（或有的話用加權平均價）計算每項資產期間的最大跌幅，以及之後到 10 月 22 日的復原程度。

本次納入市值排名前 50 名（截至 10 月初）之 Layer-1、Layer-2、DeFi 藍籌、基礎設施及主流應用型代幣。排除以錨定為目標的穩定幣與極度缺乏流動性的小型幣，並要求其市值約 5 億美元以上、24 小時現貨成交量達 1,000 萬美元以上、且於主流交易所活躍，以確保有充足流動性和交易活動。榜單最終納入的資產，皆於兩間以上主要交易所上市，以避免「韌性」只是假象。

我們以 10 月 10 日起最大跌幅作為排名依據，跌幅愈小代表韌性愈高。同時也紀錄每枚資產跌至低點所需時間，以及截至 10 月 22 日的復原狀況。為便於比較，我們計算各資產 10 月 10 日收盤到 10 月 22 日的報酬。例如某資產 10 月 10 日收 100 美元，最低跌至 70，最大跌幅為 -30%；若至今回升至 90，僅較 10 月 10 日低 -10%。

次級指標方面，我們進一步分析：

•\t相對比特幣及大盤表現：觀察各資產對 BTC 的 Beta 值（下跌期間跌幅大於 BTC 抑或小於 BTC）、及其 BTC 交易對是否強於大勢。例如 Tron 的 TRX/BTC 交易對在 10 月 11 日逆勢上揚，有相對強勢訊號。

•\t波動率與夏普比率：特別記錄 30 天實現波動率，檢視低波資產是否更為抗跌。許多韌性代幣於崩盤過後波動明顯壓縮（如 Tron 至 10 月 14 日波動率已“明顯收斂”）。部分也質性討論風險調整表現。

•\t流動性與交易動能：藉訂單簿深度與成交量評估流動性是否形成價格緩衝，另留意衍生品的部位配置——如永續合約資金費率、未平倉變化，判斷空單是否持續流入、抑或被軋空。當空單壓力過大時，清算效應會加劇崩跌；部位平衡有助減緩跌勢。

•\t鏈上活動：包括交易所資金流向、大戶動態、活躍地址與質押參與狀況。鏈上基本面穩健、社群黏著度高的幣（如高質押比率、長期持有者未逃離交易所）普遍跌幅較小。例如 Tron 鏈上數據顯示，老持有者在崩盤期間並無大規模離場。

•\t代幣經濟學與供給動態：檢視流通供給、解鎖排程、庫藏及回購機制。像 Maker 持續回購並銷毀 MKR，加上 DAI 高存款利率，抑制賣壓。交易所幣如 BNB 定期銷毀，而 Bitfinex 的 LEO 則由金庫回購，這些因素有助穩住價格底部。

•\t敘事與推動因子：記錄各種獨特正面推動，包括網路升級、企業合作、監管明確、甚至只是時機巧合。例如 XRP 於 10 月中有大型 ETF 申請與機構資金流入，輔以逢低買盤。Zcash 則搭上地緣政治監控恐慌下的隱私幣熱潮。這些推動讓部分資產即使大盤恐慌時仍有基本面支撐。

價格及成交量數據採集自 CoinGecko、CoinMarketCap 等主流管道交叉驗證。跌幅、報酬計算，根據 10~11 日日線 OHLC 及分鐘線圖進行。鏈上與衍生品數據來源包括 Glassnode、CryptoQuant、Kaiko（如交易所流量，資金費率等），重大新聞來自 Reuters、CoinDesk、Bloomberg 及官方公告（皆以連結方式註記）。

本報告重點聚焦現貨市場行為，雖輔以部分衍生品脈絡，但不包含場外與非公開數據。部分小型交易所幣或許受限單一市場，實際韌性與流動性孤島有關。為避免此問題，我們要求多交易所上市。例如 LEO 僅在 Bitfinex 主要掛牌，波動性極低部分來自回購機制與流通控制。

另需注意倖存者偏誤——我們聚焦於挺住的頭部資產，崩得更重的也許揭露其他值得留意的脆弱點（文中有順帶比較）。所有報酬、跌幅皆為約略值，各數據來源略有出入，但盡量引據官方或公認權威數字。最後雖然指標間存在相關性（如高質押≒抗跌），但相關不等於因果，每項資產背後還有許多獨特面向。

2025 年 10 月 10 日後的市場背景

在細看排行榜前，理解 2025 年 10 月中旬混亂局勢尤為重要。當次閃崩並非肇因於行業內部失誤，而是來自宏觀與政策層面的衝擊，直擊槓桿過高的市場。10 月 10 日週五深夜，美國總統川普宣布對中國進口實施 100% 關稅並加強「關鍵軟體」出口管制。此舉突襲美中貿易戰，全球風險資產隨即崩跌。

傳統金融市場已收盤（10 月 10 日正值股市收市後），許多投資人急於賣出加密資產作為避險替代品，並湧向美債、黃金等安全資產。標普 500 與納斯達克皆錄得春季以來最大跌幅，但與加密的溢價相比，加密幣下跌幅度更為劇烈——顯示高度槓桿下，市場對總體衝擊極為敏感。

清算創新高：消息傳出後，槓桿極高的加密合約頭寸集體爆倉。24 小時內，高達 190~200 億美元衍生品持倉遭清算，刷新行業單日紀錄。相比之下，這個數字是 2025 年 2 月小型閃崩的 9 倍，是 2020 年 3 月“黑色星期四”與 2022 年 FTX 崩盤清算量的 19 倍。

因訂單簿薄弱，加劇連鎖反應——價格急墜時，流動性供應商撤單，部分交易所觸發熔斷機制。有造市商後來表示，有些平台的自動去槓桿機制被迫於最壞時點大規模降低曝險，加深了流動性負反饋的惡性循環。

價格殺戮：比特幣（BTC）於 10 月 6 日剛創下逾 12.6 萬美元新高，於 10 月 10~11 日最低跌至約 10.48 萬美元，當日 14~15% 跌幅較多數山寨幣已屬溫和。以太幣（ETH）從約 4,800 美元跌至 3,436~3,500 美元區間，從高點回落約 25%，單日報導跌幅也有約 12%。全市場市值一度蒸發逾五千億美元，數小時內總跌幅超過 11%。

最嚴重的傷害，發生在那些「風險資產聚集區」…… Sure! Here’s your translation in zh-Hant-TW, following your formatting instructions, and skipping translation for markdown links.

極端。高度投機且流動性不足的山寨幣出現了閃電暴跌，讓人聯想到過去最糟糕時刻。例如：狗狗幣（DOGE）這個迷因幣風向標，一度暴跌超過50%（從約$0.22跌到$0.11），隨後在$0.19附近穩定下來。Avalanche（AVAX）一度從近期高位下跌70%，而有消息稱Toncoin（TON）在最高峰時於某些平台短暫跌至約$0.50（接近$2的價位收出80%的長下影）。即使是相對成熟的大型幣也未能倖免：Solana（SOL）根據部分說法出現單日超過40%的崩跌，Stellar（XLM）閃崩約60%至$0.16左右後反彈。簡而言之，10月10日是一場真正的壓力測試，從資產在流動性消失時的表現分出高下。

為何比特幣能小幅反彈：到了隔天（10月11日），比特幣和幾個主流項目部分收復失地，部分原因是出現了令人安心的消息。那個週末，川普總統態度軟化，表示“一切都會沒事”，暗示美國其實不想傷害中國。中國方面，則沒有立即宣布新的反制措施。這種語調轉趨緩和提升了全球市場情緒。

此外，加密貨幣圈的特定因素也幫助比特幣比多數資產復甦得更快：鏈上分析師指出，儘管市場混亂，比特幣投資者資金流動依然強勁。著名分析師 Willy Woo 甚至指出，比特幣網絡資金流向（流向長期持有者、繼續持幣不賣）“表現良好”，很可能讓比特幣在股市大跌的背景下依然能撐住。證據顯示，這場崩盤期間及之後，資本從山寨幣轉向比特幣，而非完全撤離加密貨幣圈。這種資金輪動是典型的“優質資產避險”行為：當波動來襲時，許多交易者會拋售小山寨，轉而追求比特幣（以及較小程度的以太幣）的相對安全，進而對比特幣下跌形成一定緩衝。

衍生品重置及穩定幣流向：這次崩跌也導致全市場槓桿大幅重置。10月10日至13日，比特幣與以太坊永續合約資金費率一度大幅轉負，因為恐慌性做空對沖劇增。選擇權市場上出現避險需求爆發──例如，交易者大舉買入BTC月底到期執行價$95,000的賣權，以及ETH的$3,600賣權。隱含波動率飆升至數月新高。這次將過度槓桿清洗出場後，市場可謂“重新洗牌”，為後續復甦鋪平道路；正如一位分析師所言：“這次崩盤的好消息是徹底清出了過多槓桿，暫時重設了系統裡的風險。”

另一個值得注意的資金流：穩定幣短暫動盪後，證明了其效用。拋售潮期間，有交易者逃往特定法幣支持的穩定幣（將USDC/USDT視為避風港）。某個規模較小、帶收益的穩定幣（USDe）因流動性吃緊一度短暫脫勾，但主流穩定幣如USDT和USDC均維持與美元掛鉤。事後觀察，穩定幣供應走勢透露宏觀線索：Tether的USDT市佔率有所上升，風險資金從山寨幣流向現金等價物，全市場穩定幣交易量刷新今年新高，表明資金正重新配置。穩定幣也被視為中期穩定力量：Galaxy Digital研究主管提到，穩定幣作為支付與流動性樞紐的角色愈發顯著，即便價格劇烈波動，依然支撐生態系統。

監管與政策訊號：這場崩盤發生時，正值美國政府停擺（川普政府主導），導致SEC與CFTC實質上暫停。這引發了金融危機期間監管減少的憂慮。Maxine Waters眾議員強調，監管單位被迫放無薪假，導致圍繞關稅消息的市場操縱或內線交易可能無人監管。（事實上確有區塊鏈上的可疑跡象，例如有地址在崩盤前剛好壓注$1.5億看空BTC並獲大利）。

同期大西洋彼岸──歐盟與亞洲監管機構對加密貨幣鮮少發聲，但全球整體偏保守風氣，讓高投機性資產明顯乏人問津。唯一亮色：在這場災難中，有關比特幣ETF和實體資產代幣化的敘事10月底再度回溫，或有助於比特幣與部分“優質”山寨幣止跌。舉例來說，BlackRock的iShares Bitcoin Trust在崩盤後短暫恢復資金流入，抄底買家進場。總體而言，政策背景依然是雙面刃：這次崩盤凸顯了加密貨幣對宏觀衝擊的脆弱，但也進一步激發了對風控與明確監管的呼聲，期望以更安全的方式將加密納入傳統金融。

總結而言，10月10日這一事件是“宏觀恐慌”與結構性加密脆弱（高槓桿+低流動性）的完美風暴。然而，瓦礫當中，某些資產展現出驚人韌性。接下來，讓我們看看在這次逆境中表現最佳的資產排行榜，並剖析它們為何能撐過風暴。

排行榜：十大跌幅最小的加密資產

1. Tron（TRX）：風暴中的質押堡壘

簡介：Tron 是主打高效交易處理的Layer-1公鏈，廣泛應用於穩定幣轉帳和去中心化金融（DeFi）應用。其原生代幣TRX負責網絡交易與質押。Tron 採用委託權益證明（DPoS）系統，質押參與率很高（流通中的TRX有超過50%被鎖定於質押）。Tron以快速、低手續費見長，也是以太坊之外發行Tether（USDT）穩定幣的主力鏈，帶動TRX作為手續費的穩定需求。

崩跌表現：在10月10日的崩盤中，Tron 是表現最好的主流資產。其最大跌幅僅約10–11%，最低暫探$0.30，整體在恐慌期間都守住$0.30大關。對比同期大多數主流幣種下跌20-40%，Tron顯得異常亮眼。值得一提的是，崩盤過程中Tron的TRX/BTC交易對走強：10月11日TRX/BTC漲約2.1%，也就是Tron對比特幣幣值升值，幾乎所有其他山寨對BTC都在下跌。這種罕見強勢意味Tron成了一部分投資人逆境中的避風港。截至10月22日，TRX價格已達$0.33，甚至高於崩盤前的約$0.32，10月10日以來僅淨變動個位數百分比。

為何能撐住：

• 高質押&低賣壓：超過一半TRX供應質押於Tron共識機制，意味留在市場上的流動籌碼較低，拋售壓力有限。鏈上數據顯示，崩盤期間老錢包並未大量拋售──Coin Days Destroyed（一指標）維持低位。也就是說，持幣已久的長期持有者並未群體出逃，僅是短線交易者賣壓，忠誠社群選擇繼續“抱牢”，對價格形成緩衝。

• 有限槓桿曝險：相較以太坊或XRP這類重槓桿品種，TRX在高槓桿交易中並不常見。TRX合約與槓桿倉位較少，因此強制平倉潮帶來的下壓動能有限。分析發現，未被大型衍生品交易所廣泛納入的幣種，這次也沒那麼劇烈宮跌。Tron雖在主流交易所掛牌，但在西方市場一向炒作熱度有限，反而幫了它一把──沒太多可觸發的空頭或高槓桿多頭可被清算。且其交易量分散在多個亞洲交易所與去中心化交易平台，降低單點故障風險。

• Tron上的穩定幣需求：Tron是USDT（泰達幣）大量流通的主場（Tron低手續費讓其成為USDT搬磚首選）。危機時期，眾人賣幣避險，很多人轉向USDT──而大量USDT正是基於Tron網絡。這代表即使價格下跌，Tron網絡仍有活躍應用（TRX手續費需求維持）。此外，市商因應USDT交易會備有TRX支付手續費，形成基礎買盤需求。Tron創辦人孫宇晨聲稱“Tron是洪水時代的方舟”──雖有宣傳成分，但從USDT-Tron轉帳全程暢通，也部分得到驗證。

• Tron DApps未爆大規模去槓桿：Tron的DeFi生態（如借貸平台JustLend）規模較小，並無出現清算踩踏累積賣壓。反觀其他鏈的DeFi頭寸大量爆倉加重拋壓。Tron鏈上借貸市場參數謹慎，這次崩盤也未聽聞協議故障。這方面“無事即是好事”──Tron完全沒有成為負面新聞主角。

潛在風險與展望：Tron這次抗跌性突顯其作為實用型鏈與忠誠持有者優勢，但風險仍存。中心化與治理爭議，例如“超級代表”少數掌握共識、Tron聲譽深受孫宇晨個人影響，內含執行與監管風險。如亞洲（Tron主力用戶區）投資人信心改變，或有競爭鏈搶下USDT搬磚市場，TRX就會失去重要需求來源。此外，Tron的穩定幣體系有演算法穩定幣（USDD），2022年曾小幅脫鉤，這一塊如再現問題將嚴重傷害信心。

後市展望：若市場繼續震盪或走弱，Tron很可能繼續充當相對穩定的“收益＋應用”題材。質押收益（目前約4-5%）與USDT搬磚需求，可能讓TRX在投資人眼中成“類加密債券”──不是無風險，但波動度較低。若牛市降臨，Tron漲幅可能落後高Beta DeFi或AI概念幣，但逆境中它已證明自己能跑贏大市。未來請持續關注Tron上的穩定幣流動數據。（USDT-Tron供應量、交易數量）——只要使用量維持高檔或持續增長，這將有力支撐TRX的基本面。

另外也要留意任何與Tether或Tron相關的監管消息；到目前為止，Tron大多避開了西方監管機構的關注焦點，但一旦出現風險，勢必會對其造成影響。短期內，關鍵支撐位是這次暴跌期間守住的~$0.30，只要TRX在未來的市場回檔中維持在這條線以上，就顯示持續展現韌性。如果跌破，可能意味著基本面發生了重要變化（例如質押者開始撤離）。目前看來，Tron在10月10日的表現，已經進一步強化了其在動盪加密市場中為相對穩定資產的形象。

2. Bitcoin (BTC): Institutional Anchor Amid Leverage Chaos

What it is: Bitcoin hardly needs an introduction – it’s the original cryptocurrency, often dubbed “digital gold.” With the largest market cap in crypto, Bitcoin is held by a wide array of participants from retail holders to hedge funds to corporate treasuries. Its fixed 21 million supply and decentralized network give it a unique store-of-value appeal. Importantly, Bitcoin sets the tone in crypto markets; it’s the asset most likely to benefit from flights to quality when investors get scared of altcoin risk.

比特幣幾乎不需要太多介紹——它是最早的加密貨幣，常被譽為「數位黃金」。擁有加密貨幣中最大的市值，從散戶、對沖基金到企業財庫，持有者極為多元。此外，比特幣2100萬枚的總量上限及其去中心化網路，賦予它獨特的價值儲存吸引力。最重要的是，比特幣在加密市場中扮演著定調者的角色；當投資者對山寨幣風險產生恐懼時，比特幣往往最能受益於資金尋求優質資產避險的潮流。

Crash performance: During the Oct. 10 flash crash, Bitcoin fell roughly 14–15% at the lows, dropping from around $122,000 on Oct. 9 to about $104,800 at the nadir on Oct. 10. That intraday plunge was sharp, but notably shallower than almost every altcoin. By the end of that volatile day, BTC had already bounced back above $115,000, cutting its loss to around 8% for the day. Over the subsequent week, Bitcoin continued to recover as leveraged sellers cleared out. As of Oct. 22, BTC hovers around $108K–110K – still about 10% below its pre-crash peak, but up from the post-crash lows and relatively stable. In fact, Bitcoin’s dominance (its share of total crypto market cap) spiked to ~60% after the crash, the highest in months, reflecting that capital consolidated into BTC.

在10月10日的閃崩期間，比特幣最低跌幅約為14–15%，從10月9日的約$122,000下跌至10月10日谷底的約$104,800。這次盤中大跌雖然猛烈，但明顯比絕大多數山寨幣跌幅要淺。到了這動盪一天的結尾，BTC已反彈回$115,000以上，單日跌幅縮小至約8%。隨後一周，比特幣伴隨著槓桿賣家出場而持續回升。截至10月22日，BTC徘徊在$108,000–$110,000區間，依然比崩盤前高點低10%，但較低點已回升許多，且相對穩定。值得一提的是，暴跌後比特幣市占率（在總加密市場市值中的占比）飆升至約60%，創下數月新高，顯示資本明顯流向BTC。

In terms of timing: Bitcoin’s worst moment was mid-afternoon UTC on Oct. 10, but it led the rebound. Within 24 hours, BTC had retraced roughly half of its drop. This resilience – falling less and recovering faster – is why BTC ranks high on the shock absorber list.

就時間點而言，比特幣最糟的時刻出現在10月10日UTC時間的午後，但它之後率先開始反彈。24小時內，BTC已大致收復了一半跌幅。這種強韌——跌得少、回得快——正是在劇烈波動中BTC之所以被視為「避震器」首選的原因。

Why it held up:

• Deepest Liquidity: Bitcoin has by far the most robust markets – tens of billions in daily volume and relatively thick order books on major exchanges. During the crash, liquidity “dried up” everywhere to an extent, but BTC still had buyers stepping in near the $105K level, including possibly large institutional players who saw an opportunity. The sheer scale of Bitcoin (market cap over $2.2 trillion at the time) meant it would require an enormous wave of selling to push it down as far (in percentage terms) as smaller coins. Smaller alts simply didn’t have the buy walls; BTC did, albeit thinly at the worst point.

• 最深厚的流動性：比特幣擁有目前最強大的市場支撐——每天成交量數百億美金，在主要交易所中委託單也相對厚實。暴跌期間，流動性雖然到處「乾涸」，但BTC在跌至接近$105,000時，仍有買盤進場，包括可能嗅到機會的大型機構。比特幣龐大的市值規模（當時超過2.2兆美元），意味著需要極大規模的賣壓才可能讓它像小幣一樣在百分比上大幅下跌。許多小型山寨幣根本沒有這種買牆，而BTC雖在谷底也變薄，卻依然存在。

• Rotation from Altcoins: As mentioned, analysts observed a rotation of capital within crypto from alts into Bitcoin. Willy Woo noted that while Ethereum and Solana saw large outflows, Bitcoin’s investor flows “held up well”. Part of this might be algorithmic or reflexive: in a cascading sell-off, some traders actively sell altcoin positions for BTC (rather than for cash) as a safe harbor, anticipating BTC will rebound first or harder. Others might close alt longs and simultaneously close BTC shorts, effectively supporting BTC’s price. Correlation breakdown: We also saw Bitcoin decouple slightly from equities during the rebound – even as stock futures stayed weak post-tariff, BTC climbed off its lows on Oct. 11, suggesting crypto-native buyers were returning to BTC faster than they were to riskier tokens.

• 資金輪動：如前所述，分析師觀察到加密市場內資金從山寨幣轉向比特幣。Willy Woo指出，雖然以太坊和Solana出現巨額流出，但是比特幣的資金流「撐住了」。部分原因可能來自演算法策略或反身性：在連環拋售時，有些交易者會主動把山寨幣換成BTC（而不是換現金）以作為避風港，預期BTC會比其他幣更快或更強勁反彈。也有人在平掉山寨多單的同時，順勢關掉比特幣空單，實際上推動了BTC價格。相關性分離：我們還看到反彈時比特幣與股市出現少量脫鉤——即便美股期貨因關稅陰影持續走弱，BTC卻在10月11日自低點爬升，顯示原生加密資本回流BTC比回流其他高風險幣快得多。

• Institutional & Fundamental Demand: The broader backdrop is that Bitcoin in late 2025 has significant institutional involvement (from ETFs in Europe to U.S. hedge funds). On the crash day, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust reportedly still had net inflows, implying some investors “bought the dip” via ETF shares. Additionally, Bitcoin’s narrative as digital gold in a time of macro uncertainty (trade war fears, etc.) likely enticed allocators to either hold or add BTC. Gold itself hit record highs in October; Bitcoin, often seen as gold’s younger cousin, may have indirectly benefited from that sentiment once the initial shock passed. We can’t ignore that Bitcoin’s block subsidy halving is coming in April 2026 – historically a bullish driver – so longer-term focused investors may have viewed any sizable dip as a chance to accumulate.

• 機構與基本面需求：更廣泛的背景是，2025年底比特幣已獲得機構大規模參與（從歐洲ETF到美國對沖基金）。暴跌當天，據報導BlackRock旗下iShares Bitcoin Trust依然有資金淨流入，意味著有投資者透過ETF「逢低承接」。另外，鑑於當前宏觀不確定性（如貿易戰風險等），比特幣作為數位黃金的敘事更吸引資產配置者持有或加倉BTC。10月現貨黃金創新高，比特幣作為黃金的小弟一旦初步風暴過去，情緒上的連帶效應也可能有正面幫助。不能忽略的是，比特幣區塊獎勵減半預計將於2026年4月到來——這一向被視為長期利多，因此長線資金很可能把每次像樣回檔都視為增持機會。

• Clearing of Excess Leverage in BTC Futures: A technical but important factor: much of the $19B liquidations were actually concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, because those are the most traded. While that initially drove the price down, it also meant by Oct. 11, a huge chunk of speculative long interest was wiped out. Exchanges like Binance and OKX saw their BTC open interest drop significantly as positions got liquidated or closed. Once that leverage was gone, there was less gravitational pull downward. BTC’s funding rates went deeply negative (meaning shorts were paying a premium to short), which typically is a contrarian buy signal – it implies an overshoot. Indeed, savvy traders often step in when BTC funding is heavily negative, to “fade” the panic. This dynamic helped BTC bottom out relatively quickly.

• BTC期貨槓桿過度出清：有一個技術但很關鍵的因素：這次約190億美元的強平主要集中在比特幣和以太坊的期貨市場，因為它們交易最活躍。雖然這最初導致價格下壓，但到了10月11日，大量投機多單已被一掃而空。像Binance、OKX等交易所的比特幣未平倉合約明顯下滑，因為部位不是被強平就是自動除倉。當這些槓桿出清後，下行壓力自然大為減輕。BTC資金費率一度轉為大幅負值（意味著空軍為了做空反而要付高額費用），這通常是拋售過度、適合反向佈局的訊號。有經驗的交易者經常在此類情況下逆勢進場，因此也協助BTC相對快速築底。

Risks and forward-looking: Bitcoin’s resilience doesn’t mean it’s invulnerable. In this crash it shone, but one risk to note is liquidity fragmentation – as crypto markets fragment across many exchanges and OTC venues, even Bitcoin can suffer air pockets (as seen). There’s also the macro factor: Bitcoin has been trading increasingly like a macro asset. If bond yields spike or equity markets tumble further, BTC could face renewed pressure. The flip side is also true: it might catch a bid from macro investors if, say, rate cuts loom or if geopolitical tensions spur interest in non-sovereign assets. A potential U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval (decisions expected in late 2025 or early 2026) is a huge upside catalyst – anticipation of that likely added to BTC’s support.

後續風險與展望：比特幣的韌性並不代表它毫無風險。在這次崩盤中它的表現確實驚艷，但仍有一些隱憂需留意，例如流動性碎片化——隨著加密市場分散到各式交易所及場外管道，就連比特幣偶爾也會碰到流動性斷層（這次已見證）。另有宏觀層面：比特幣越來越像一個宏觀資產在運作。如果債券殖利率飆升，或是股市進一步重挫，BTC也可能承受新一輪壓力；反之，如果央行放寬或地緣衝突升溫導致法人青睞非主權資產，比特幣可能又會得到買盤支撐。若美國現貨比特幣ETF有望通過（預計2025年底至2026年初會有決定），這對BTC將是巨大利多，預期也已為BTC提供了部分下檔支撐。

What’s next:

• Base case (continued chop): Bitcoin may range between ~$100K–$120K, consolidating its post-crash recovery. Its realized volatility could remain lower relative to altcoins (which is already happening – BTC’s 30-day volatility is lower than many top alts).
• Bear case (renewed downside): If another external shock hits or if the recent bounce fails, a key level to watch is the $100K psychological zone. A break below $100K on high volume could trigger another cascade of stop-loss selling or miner capitulation fears. However, October’s cleansing means there is likely less leverage now than pre-crash, so any retest might be more orderly. Also watch stablecoin exchange inflows – if we see a surge of USDC/USDT onto exchanges, it could mean big players are gearing up to buy BTC dips (a bullish sign) or, conversely, that holders are cashing out (bearish, depending on context).
• Bull case (recovery/uptober): Bitcoin leading a broader recovery would likely entail reclaiming the $125K area (the prior high). Traders will look for BTC dominance peaking and then stabilizing, which often precedes altcoin rallies. But given how scarred many are, BTC could maintain higher dominance for longer – it might continue to outperform riskier tokens for months. Keep an eye on on-chain holder metrics: as of now, long-term holder supply is near all-time highs (meaning hodlers are holding through volatility), which historically is bullish after flush-outs.

後市展望：

• 基本情境（盤整）：比特幣可能在約$100,000–$120,000之間震盪整理，吸收暴跌過後的修復動能。其實現波動率可能會繼續低於主要山寨幣（目前也是如此——BTC近30天波動率已有明顯低於多數前十大山寨幣）。
• 悲觀情境（再次下探）：若再遇外部衝擊或近期反彈無法延續，重點觀察$100,000這個心理大關。若在大量成交下跌破$100,000，可能會引發新一輪連環停損拋售或礦工投降恐慌。不過，10月這波洗盤後，市場槓桿料已低於崩盤前水準，因此即使再次測底，過程可能會更有秩序。另外請留意穩定幣匯入交易所的數量——若看到USDC/USDT大量流入，這可能代表大型玩家準備抄底BTC（偏多訊號）；但如果背景不同，也可能代表持幣人套現（偏空，端視情境）。
• 樂觀情境（復甦／「Uptober」）：比特幣如帶領一波大盤反彈，主力將瞄準收復$125,000（前高）區域。觀察重點會是BTC市占率見頂後持穩，這常常是山寨幣補漲的前兆。但考慮到市場創傷仍在，BTC有可能很長一段時間保持較高市占率——幾個月內都可能表現優於高風險代幣。同時多留意鏈上持有者指標：目前長期持有比特幣的錢包供應量接近歷史新高（顯示Hodler堅持不賣），這種現象在清倉過後一向偏多。

總結來說，在10月10日的市場崩盤中，比特幣展現了其作為加密市場「錨」的角色——雖跌下重擊，但並未重創崩潰，且反彈速度領先大盤。當市場一片血流成河時，比特幣之所以能吸納資金，是它始終能成為任何加密資產配置核心的重要原因。2025年10月的經驗提醒大家：當市場搖擺不定時，很多人都會選擇「回歸BTC」尋求相對安全。這種模式只要比特幣持續成熟並融入全球金融體系，預計仍會延續下去。

3. Monero (XMR): Steady Under the Radar – Privacy Pays Off

What it is: Monero is a leading privacy-focused cryptocurrency and blockchain. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, Monero’s design emphasizes untraceable transactions – amounts, addresses, and transaction details are obscured through cryptographic techniques (ring signatures, stealth addresses, etc.). This makes XMR a favored coin for those who value financial privacy. It’s mined via proof-of-work (but ASIC-resistant, encouraging CPU/GPU mining), and it has a stable tail emission (minor inflation) to incentivize miners long-term. Importantly, Monero is not listed on several major exchanges due to regulatory concerns around privacy coins, which means it’s somewhat siloed liquidity-wise. Its community is very ideologically driven and long-term oriented.

Monero（XMR）是市場上領先的隱私導向加密貨幣和區塊鏈。不同於比特幣與以太坊，Monero特別強調交易不可追蹤——通過密碼學技術（環簽名、隱匿地址等）讓金額、地址和交易細節全部模糊不清。這讓XMR成為高度重視財務隱私使用者的最愛。它透過工作量證明挖礦（但抗ASIC設計，所以鼓勵用CPU/GPU挖礦），並設有穩定的尾部通膨機制長期激勵礦工。值得注意的是，因監管疑慮，Monero沒有在數個主流交易所上架，造成其流動性有些被孤立。其社群也以意識形態鮮明、著重長遠發展為特色。

Crash performance: Monero was exceptionally resilient during the Oct. 10 episode. While precise intraday data is trickier (since Monero isn’t on many derivative platforms, wicks vary by exchange), estimates show XMR fell on the order of ~15% or less at the lows – significantly milder than the market’s 30%+ ex-BTC drawdown. By the end of October, XMR was trading higher than it was pre-crash. Over the 30 days up to Oct. 22, Monero has gained roughly +6%. In other words, if you held Monero before the crash and checked your balance now, you’d be in the green – a remarkable result when most cryptos are still nursing losses. This puts Monero among the few assets to hit a higher high after the crash. Its price has been ranging in the low $300s (USD), and it briefly approached $340 in mid-October. Traders even have sights on whether Monero can push to $400+ in Q4 if momentum continues.

在10月10日那波市場風暴中，Monero展現了極高的韌性。雖然由於Monero很少在衍生品交易所掛牌（所以不同交易所的影線長短不一），精確當天低點較難獲得，不過綜合估計，XMR最大跌幅約在15%或以內——比起主流加密貨幣暴跌三成以上（不含BTC）來說溫和許多。到十月底為止，XMR行情甚至高於崩盤前同期。10月22日前的30天內，Monero約上漲6%。換句話說，如果你在暴跌前就持有Monero，現在回頭檢查資產，帳面是正數——這在多數加密幣尚未回本的環境下實屬罕見。因此Monero成為少數在這波修正後創下新高的資產之一。價格多在美金300初頭整理，10月中更一度逼近340美元。若動能延續，交易者甚至關注第四季有沒有機會突破400美元大關。

During the crash itself, Monero’s drop was likely cushioned by the fact that it doesn’t have large leveraged markets. For example, no Monero futures on Binance or CME to trigger mass liquidations. The trading that does happen is mostly spot on smaller exchanges or decentralized platforms. As a result, Monero’s order books didn’t see the same cascade of forced selling. Its recovery was relatively swift too – any dip was met by quiet buying, possibly by its dedicated user base.

大型槓桿市場。例如，Binance 或 CME 上沒有 Monero 期貨可引發大規模強制平倉。而現有的交易大多發生在較小型的現貨交易所或去中心化平台上。因此，Monero 的訂單簿未出現同樣的連鎖強制賣壓。其回升也相對迅速——每當價格下跌，似乎就有社群支持者悄悄買入。

Why it held up:

為何能夠撐住：

• Virtually No Leverage & Less Speculation: Monero’s absence from major exchanges might seem like a liquidity weakness, but in this context it was a strength. There was no Perpetual swap pile-on, no futures wipeout in XMR. When everything correlated in a momentum crash, XMR was somewhat insulated from arbitrage bots dragging it down in lockstep. This doesn’t mean it’s completely decoupled, but the selling was purely organic. And Monero holders historically are less flippant – many acquire XMR for its utility (private transactions) or ideological reasons. This investor base is stickier, meaning less likely to panic sell. Evidence: across recent months, Monero consistently had over 50% of its supply dormant for >1 year, indicating strong holding conviction.

• 幾乎沒有槓桿與較低的投機性：Monero 未出現在主流交易所，表面看來流動性較弱，但在這種情境下反而是優勢。沒有永續合約疊加，也沒有 XMR 的期貨大清算。當所有幣種紛紛聯動下殺時，XMR 反而在仲裁機器人共同壓盤時獲得一定程度的隔離。這不代表它完全脫鉤，但賣壓主要是自然賣盤。此外，Monero 的持有者長期來說也較不易短線操作——許多人是因其用途（匿名交易）或理念購入 XMR。這樣的用戶黏著度高，比較不容易恐慌殺出。證據是：過去幾個月中，Monero 一直有超過 50% 的供應量一年以上未動，顯示出強勁的持幣信念。

• Privacy Demand in Turmoil: Interestingly, the narrative of financial privacy gained appeal amid geopolitical tensions. The trade war news and broader surveillance concerns put a spotlight on privacy tools. In October, there was a broader mini-rally in privacy coins: not just Monero, but also Dash and Zcash saw surges (405% monthly gain for ZEC, 110% for DASH). Monero, as the most established privacy coin, likely benefited from a rotation into this theme. Some traders possibly shifted funds into Monero thinking that if things get worse (financially or geopolitically), a privacy-preserving asset is a good place to park value. It’s analogous to people buying physical gold or cash – Monero is digital cash. Indeed, Monero set a 2025 high in active addresses in mid-October, suggesting usage spiked as folks moved into XMR.

• 動盪下的匿名需求：值得一提的是，隨著地緣政治緊張，金融隱私的敘事變得更吸引人。貿易戰新聞和更廣泛監控議題，讓隱私工具成為焦點。十月，隱私幣全面小型上漲：不只有 Monero，Dash 和 Zcash 也暴漲（ZEC 月漲405%，DASH 110%）。Monero 作為最主流的隱私幣，顯然受益於資金輪動到此主題。部分交易員可能認為如果情勢更惡化（無論是經濟還是地緣政治），匿名資產是避險好去處。這類似於人們會購買黃金或現金——Monero 則是數位現金。事實上，Monero 在十月中創下 2025 年以來活躍地址新高，顯示有人積極移動資金進入 XMR。

• Continuous Miner Support & Tail Emission: Monero has a unique economic feature: it will never run out of block rewards (after main emission, it has 0.6 XMR per block forever). This tail emission means miners always have some incentive. During the crash, Bitcoin and others saw some miners briefly turn off machines as price plunged (less profitable). Monero’s network hash rate didn’t significantly dip; mining continued steadily. That in turn kept the network secure and running smoothly – there was no additional fear factor like “miners capitulating” which sometimes haunts Bitcoin or Ethereum in big downturns. In short, Monero’s network operations were boringly consistent during the chaos, helping confidence.

• 持續的挖礦支持與尾部通膨：Monero 有個獨特的經濟設計：區塊獎勵永不歸零（主發行結束後，每區塊永遠有 0.6 XMR）。這表示礦工持續有誘因。崩盤期間，比特幣等幣種有部分礦工因獲利不足而關機。Monero 的算力則無明顯下降，區塊一直穩定產出。這進一步維護了網路安全和平穩運轉——沒有像比特幣或以太坊碰上大跌時常見的「礦工投降」恐慌。簡單來說，Monero 在混亂中網路運作仍一如往常，進一步增強信心。

• Lack of Whales Dumping: Monero’s distribution is relatively decentralized (it was launched fairly with no premine/ICO). There aren’t known huge foundation treasuries or VC funds holding XMR who might dump in a crunch. That’s a stark contrast to many altcoins where large holders (e.g. foundations, early investors) sometimes rush to hedging or selling when things go south. Monero didn’t have, say, a Multicoin Capital or a foundation unloading a stash. The largest “entity” holdings are likely exchange wallets or maybe mining pools, none of whom behaved erratically. This removes a source of overhead supply under stress.

• 沒有大戶砸盤：Monero 的分配相對去中心化（公平發行，沒預挖/ICO）。沒有已知的大型基金會金庫或創投基金握有大量 XMR，形勢不佳時不會出現這類大戶大舉拋售。這與許多山寨幣形成明顯對比——它們的大戶（如基金會、早期投資人）經常危急時搶著套現。Monero 沒有像 Multicoin Capital 或基金會這樣的主體集中拋貨。現存最大「實體」持幣主要是交易所錢包或礦池，這些主體並無異常賣壓。這進一步消除了壓力時的潛在超額供給。

Risks and forward-looking: Monero’s very strength – privacy – is also its biggest risk in terms of adoption and regulation. It’s already delisted from some exchanges due to AML concerns. If more regulators crack down on privacy coins, liquidity could further constrict (e.g. if remaining exchanges like Kraken were forced to drop it). Another risk: network upgrades or competition. Monero has successfully upgraded (hard-forked) multiple times to improve privacy and resistance to specialized miners. It needs to continue this technical vigilance. If a weakness in its privacy were found, its value prop could be hurt. Alternatively, if another privacy tech (like Zcash’s upcoming UDAs or new coins like Dero) gained traction at Monero’s expense, it could slowly lose share.

風險與展望：Monero 最大的優勢——隱私——同時也是其採用及監管層面的最大風險。因反洗錢疑慮，它已被部分交易所下架。若監管機構對隱私幣進一步打壓，流動性可能會更收縮（如若剩下的如 Kraken 也被迫下架）。另一風險是網路升級或競爭。Monero 已經多次成功升級（硬分叉）來提升隱私與抗 ASIC 能力，未來仍需保持技術警覺。若被找出隱私漏洞，賣點將受損。相反地，若其他隱私技術（如 Zcash 即將推出的 UDA，或新幣種 Dero）取得市場認同，也可能逐步搶走市佔。

That said, Monero has been resilient for years, and its community is among the most loyal. Its use in grey markets (while a controversial point) provides it a floor of real-world usage. For scenario analysis:

雖如此，Monero 多年來都展現強韌，其社群也是最忠誠之一。在灰色市場的實際應用（雖存在爭議）讓它有現實需求的保底。情境分析如下：

• In a bearish or volatile market, Monero could continue to quietly outperform. It has a low correlation profile historically. If trust in centralized systems erodes, people might increasingly diversify into Monero for some financial privacy, ironically making it a defensive asset.

• In a bear market, Monero might lag frothier DeFi or AI coins, but it tends to steadily appreciate and then have spurts when a catalyst hits (for instance, when exchanges in South Korea relisted privacy coins briefly, Monero popped). One potential catalyst on horizon: the increasing discussion of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and surveillance finance. Should that narrative heat up, Monero stands to gain mindshare as an alternative.

• Key levels: On the chart, XMR is eyeing the $340-$360 zone (recent local high). Clearing that could open a move to $400, which would be the highest since 2022. On the downside, support around $280 has held repeatedly. Keep an eye on trading volumes on decentralized exchanges like Haveno or local P2P markets – spikes there can signal organic buying that isn’t captured on the big exchange feeds.

• 在空頭或劇烈波動時，Monero 仍可能持續默默跑贏。歷史上相關係數極低。若大眾對中心化失去信任，為了財務隱私會更傾向配置 Monero，反而成為防禦性資產。

• 牛市時，Monero 可能落後於更投機的 DeFi 或 AI 幣，但它長期以來總是穩定漲升，遇到催化劑時則迅速暴衝（如南韓交易所短暫重上隱私幣時 Monero 暴漲）。下一波潛在催化劑是央行數位貨幣（CBDC）和金融監控的討論日漸增溫，若該議題發酵，Monero 將吸引更多人關注作為備選方案。

• 技術位：K線上 XMR 觀察 $340-$360 區間（近期高點），突破可能上看 $400，將創 2022 年以來新高。下方 $280 支撐多次守住。也要關注如 Haveno 等去中心化交易所或本地 P2P 市場的交易量，這類放量往往代表大所無法反映的自然買盤。

In summary, Monero proved a bastion of stability in the Oct. 10 crash, validating the idea that a truly decentralized, utilitarian coin can act as a hedge against broader crypto turmoil. It’s not completely uncorrelated, but its unique qualities provided insulation. For those building crypto portfolios, Monero’s performance is a case study in the value of diversity: having some exposure to privacy coins added resilience during one of the wildest days in crypto history.

總結來說，Monero 在 10 月 10 日大跌中展現穩定堡壘特質，「真正去中心化、實用至上的幣種」能夠成為更廣泛加密混亂中的避風港。雖然不是全然脫鉤，Monero 的特殊性仍帶來屏障。對組建加密投資組合者而言，Monero 的表現可作為多樣性價值的範例——配置部分隱私幣確實提高了在史上最狂一日的抗壓韌性。

4. Binance Coin (BNB): Exchange Giant’s Token Weathers the Storm

4. 幣安幣（BNB）：交易所巨頭代幣穩健度過風暴

What it is: BNB is the native token of Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Originally launched on Ethereum, it now operates primarily on the Binance Smart Chain (now called BNB Chain), which is a Layer-1 blockchain for smart contracts (with BNB as gas). BNB has multiple utility roles: paying discounted trading fees on Binance exchange, fueling transactions on BNB Chain, and participating in token sales and other programs in the Binance ecosystem. It’s effectively a hybrid exchange loyalty token and a smart contract platform coin. Binance also conducts quarterly BNB burns (token buybacks and burns) using a portion of their profits, which reduces supply over time.

說明：BNB 是全球最大加密貨幣交易所 Binance 的原生代幣。最初於以太坊發行，現主要運作於自家的 BNB Chain（原名 Binance Smart Chain），是 Layer-1 智能合約鏈（以 BNB 作為 gas）。BNB 具多種用途：可在 Binance 交易所折抵手續費、在 BNB Chain 上支付交易費、參與生態系內的發幣或計畫等等。本質上是交易所忠誠計畫與智能合約平台雙重屬性的代幣。此外，Binance 每季會使用部分獲利以回購銷毀 BNB，長期減少流通供應。

Crash performance: BNB demonstrated notable resilience during the Oct. 10 crash, though not as extreme as Tron or Monero. At its lowest, BNB dipped to around $900–950 from roughly $1,200 pre-crash (estimates), roughly a 20-25% decline at the worst point. By Oct. 13, it had bounced back above $1,050. In fact, in the immediate aftermath, BNB was highlighted as one of the top rebounders – it was “last week’s top performer” among majors, according to market observers on Oct. 20. Over the week following the crash, BNB did give up some gains, ending about 12% down week-on-week by Oct. 20. As of Oct. 22, BNB trades around $1,070, still roughly 10% below its Oct. 9 level but firmly off the lows. It held its position as the #4 largest crypto by market cap throughout the turmoil.

崩盤表現：BNB 在 10 月 10 日大跌中展現出不俗的抗跌力，雖然不如 Tron 或 Monero 那樣強勢。最低曾從崩盤前約 $1,200 跌至 $900–950，最嚴重時跌幅約 20-25%。到 10 月 13 日即回升到 $1,050 以上。事實上，崩盤後數日內，BNB 被市場觀察者評為「上周表現最佳主流幣種」（10 月 20 日指標）。在隨後一周內，BNB 有小幅回吐，至 10 月 20 日全週跌約 12%。截至 10 月 22 日，BNB 約在 $1,070，較 10 月 9 日近 10% 跌幅，仍遠高於低點。無論如何，BNB 在災情期間始終穩居市值第 4 大幣。

Notably, BNB did not exhibit the kind of severe wicks that many altcoins did. It traded in a somewhat orderly fashion (relatively speaking) through the chaos – likely a function of Binance’s own platform managing the order flow and possibly intervening (there’s speculation Binance may have an interest in preventing extreme BNB volatility).

特別值得一提的是，BNB 並未出現許多山寨幣那種極端影線（瞬間暴殺）的走勢。大跌期間走勢相對平穩（在當時局勢下屬相對概念）——這很可能與 Binance 平台本身管理掛單和可能的干預有關（業界一直揣測，Binance 有興趣壓抑 BNB 巨幅波動）。

Why it held up:

為何能撐住：

• Strong Insider Support and Buybacks: Binance has a vested interest in BNB’s stability. The exchange’s quarterly burn mechanism essentially acts as a built-in buyer of BNB (using exchange profits). While the next burn schedule is fixed, the knowledge that Binance continually takes BNB out of circulation can create a psychological floor. It’s not confirmed whether Binance directly supported BNB’s price during the crash (through market-making), but it’s widely believed Binance monitors BNB markets closely. Unlike purely decentralized assets, BNB has a sort of implicit “central bank” in Binance. This can deter short-sellers, knowing that an entity with deep pockets stands behind the token. During the crash, there were no known large BNB liquidations, hinting that big holders (including Binance itself) didn’t panic sell.

• 強力內部支持與回購：Binance 本身對 BNB 價格穩定有高度利害關係。平台按季銷毀機制，等同於用獲利「自動回購」BNB。即便下一次銷毀時間已定，但市場知道 Binance 持續收回流通籌碼，能形成心理支撐。目前無法證實 Binance 在崩盤時有否直接「托市」，但普遍相信 Binance 會密切監控 BNB 市場。與純去中心化資產不同，BNB 有 Binance 這個「隱形央行」撐腰。這讓做空者畏懼，畢竟背後資金深厚。崩盤時，沒有發生 BNB 巨額強平案例，也意味包括 Binance 在內的大持幣方並未恐慌拋售。

• Utility & Demand for Fees: Even on Oct. 10, Binance exchange saw record trading volumes. Guess what traders need to use for fees (if they want discounts)? BNB. It’s plausible that as volatility surged, some market makers and high-frequency traders actually bought BNB (or at least didn’t sell their stash) to avail cheaper fees on the massive volume day. So trading activity spikes can create reflex demand for BNB. Additionally, BNB Chain itself didn’t suffer any major incidents, and usage continued (though it’s smaller compared to Ethereum or Tron’s volumes). This baseline utility might have kept some BNB off the market.

• 手續費實用需求：即便在 10 月 10 日，Binance 仍創下交易量紀錄。你猜交易員要用甚麼幣來折抵手續費？BNB。波動放大時，部分造市或高頻交易商可能反而買進 BNB（或至少不賣），用以省下手續費——這種交易爆衝時會激起快捷需求。再者，BNB Chain 本身並未出現嚴重狀況，各項應用（雖不及以太坊或 Tron 之活躍）仍照常進行。這基礎用途也維持部分 BNB 未被傾銷到市面。

• Relatively Limited Circulating Supply: Over the years, Binance’s burns have significantly reduced BNB’s circulating supply (originally 200 million, now down to ~153 million and dropping). Many BNB are also locked in various Binance Earn products or held by investors who use BNB as a long-term stake in Binance’s ecosystem. This means during a crunch, the float that’s actively traded isn’t as huge as the market cap implies. Lower available supply can dampen the price impact of sell orders, assuming demand doesn’t evaporate.

• 流通供應量有限：多年間 Binance 的銷毀大幅減少流通量（原 2 億顆，現在僅剩約 1.53 億且持續下降）。許多 BNB 被鎖定在平台累積收益產品，或由視其為長線價值的用戶持有。故一旦出現緊急情況，能即時拋售的部份遠低於市值表現。只要需求沒消失，可流動籌碼少就能削弱賣壓衝擊。

• Market Perception as Blue Chip: BNB, by virtue of Binance’s dominance, is often seen as a quasi-blue-chip in crypto. It’s not as decentralized as BTC or ETH,

• 藍籌印象：靠著 Binance 困難以撼動的主流地位，BNB 一直被市場視為加密圈相對「藍籌」的標的。它雖然不像 BTC、ETH 那麼去中心化，but traders respect its size. In panics, some may rotate from fringe alts into something like BNB thinking it’s safer (given Binance’s clout). The correlation of BNB with overall market is high in uptrends, but interestingly in this down shock, BNB held up better than other platform coins (e.g., Solana or Cardano). That suggests people viewed BNB as one of the stronger horses to bet on in the altcoin stable, given Binance’s global influence and profitability.

但交易者仍尊重其市值。在恐慌時，有些人會從邊緣山寨幣轉向類似BNB這樣被認為較安全的幣種（考量到幣安的影響力）。在牛市時，BNB與整體市場的相關度很高，但有趣的是，在這次下跌衝擊中，BNB比其他平台幣（如Solana或Cardano）表現得更為堅挺。這顯示出，由於幣安在全球的影響力與獲利能力，人們視BNB為山寨幣市場裡較值得押寶的強馬之一。

Risks and forward-looking: BNB’s fate is tightly linked to Binance’s fate. This is a double-edged sword. On one hand, Binance’s continued profitability (they’re a cash machine in trading fees) and ecosystem growth bolster BNB’s value. On the other hand, regulatory actions against Binance (U.S. SEC and others have ongoing cases) loom as a tail risk. If Binance were forced out of key markets or faced operational issues, BNB could suffer severely. It’s essentially an equity-like token for Binance’s ecosystem without formal equity rights.

風險與展望：BNB的命運與幣安緊密相連，這是一把雙面刃。一方面，幣安持續的盈利能力（交易手續費幾乎成現金機器）以及生態系的擴展支撐了BNB的價值；另一方面，針對幣安的監管行動（如美國SEC與其他機構的持續訴訟）則構成潛在風險。如果幣安被迫退出重要市場或遇到營運困難，BNB勢必會受到重創。本質上，BNB更像是幣安生態系的“類股權代幣”，但並沒有正式股權權利。

Additionally, BNB Chain faces competition from other Layer-1s and Layer-2s. Its transaction volumes have been moderate, and some metrics like total value locked in BNB Chain DeFi are down from peaks. If developers and users migrate away, one leg of BNB’s demand (as gas) weakens. So far, Binance has kept BNB relevant via new launches (e.g., Binance Launchpad tokens require holding BNB), but it’s an active effort.

此外，BNB鏈同時面臨來自其他Layer-1和Layer-2項目的競爭。其鏈上交易量表現中等，像是BNB鏈DeFi的TVL（鎖倉總價值）等指標，也已跌離高峰。如果開發者和用戶流失，作為“gas”的BNB需求面會受到削弱。截至目前，幣安持續透過新產品推動BNB的用途與需求（例如參與Binance Launchpad必須持有BNB），但這需不斷積極維護。

What’s next: In a flat market scenario, BNB likely trades in tandem with general sentiment, perhaps with slightly lower volatility than smaller alts. Its beta to BTC is usually somewhat above 1 (meaning it moves a bit more than BTC), but in the crash it was lower – that might not always hold. For a bullish case: if crypto markets recover and Binance continues expanding (for example, Binance might get into new markets or products), BNB could climb back to pre-crash levels and beyond. The next milestone for BNB would be reclaiming $1,200 and then targeting its all-time high region (around $1,500+ from earlier in 2025). A catalyst could be Binance resolving some regulatory issues – if a settlement or positive development occurs, it would remove a discount weighing on BNB.

未來展望：在盤整或趨平的市場環境下，BNB大致會與整體情緒同步波動，波動度可能比小型山寨幣略低。BNB相對於BTC的beta值通常稍高於1（即漲跌幅略大於BTC），但這次暴跌期間反而較低——但這未必會一直持續。看多情境下，若加密市場回暖，幣安持續壯大（例如開拓新市場或產品），BNB有望回升至暴跌前水準甚至更高。下一個重要關卡是重回1200美元，然後挑戰歷史高點區（大約2025年初的1500美元以上）。推動因素可能包括幣安解決監管問題——一旦有和解或利好消息發生，BNB過去因監管折價的壓力將有望減輕。

In a bearish case: if another shock hits or if Binance sees a wave of withdrawals (there was a period of fear in late 2024 around Binance solvency which BNB dipped on), then BNB could retest the sub-$900 area. Watch for unusual on-chain movements – large BNB transfers from Binance wallets to other exchanges could indicate selling or liquidity needs, which would be a red flag.

看空情境下，如果再出現劇烈衝擊，或幣安遭遇一波大規模提現潮（2024年底曾出現對幣安清算能力的恐慌，當時BNB也大跌），BNB可能再次測試900美元以下區間。需留意鏈上異常流動——若幣安錢包大量轉出BNB至其他交易所，可能意味著有拋售或流動性需求，這將是一項警示訊號。

Also, keep an eye on the BNB burn announcements. While scheduled, they sometimes surprise with how large they are (since it’s tied to Binance’s trading volumes). A significantly large burn (meaning Binance had an extremely profitable quarter) could create positive sentiment. In summary, BNB proved itself as one of the more resilient top tokens in this crash, aided by its unique position as an exchange-backed asset. It underscores how in times of stress, ties to real business cash flows (trading fees) and a quasi-centralized support can stabilize a token. BNB’s resilience, however, ultimately rests on trust in Binance – something that the community will keep evaluating as the regulatory climate evolves.

另外也需持續關注BNB銷毀（burn）公告。雖然這是有時程安排，但因對應幣安實際交易量，有時銷毀規模會超出預期。若出現特別大規模銷毀（意味幣安該季度盈利極佳），有可能帶動市場正面情緒。總結來說，BNB在本次市場暴跌中展現了頂級代幣中的韌性，本質在於它作為交易所支持的資產擁有特殊地位。這再度證明，遇到壓力時，與實體業務現金流收入（如交易手續費）及“半中心化”支持的代幣更穩定。不過，BNB的韌性終究取決於對幣安的信任，而這一點，社群會隨著監管變化持續加以檢視。

5. Ethereum (ETH): The Ubiquitous Platform That Bent, Not Broke

以太坊（ETH）：被壓彎但沒被擊潰的無處不在平台

What it is: Ethereum is the second-largest cryptocurrency and the leading smart contract platform that underpins much of decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and other Web3 applications. ETH is the native token used for transaction fees (gas) and is also a staking asset now (since Ethereum’s switch to proof-of-stake in 2022). Ethereum has a vast ecosystem and is often considered the “reserve asset” of DeFi. Its performance is thus entwined with the broader crypto market’s health.

簡介：以太坊是全球第二大加密貨幣，也是支撐大多數去中心化金融（DeFi）、NFTs及其他Web3應用的主流智能合約平台。ETH是支付交易手續費（gas）的原生代幣，亦自2022年轉為權益證明（PoS）後成為質押資產。以太坊生態極為龐大，常被視為DeFi的“儲備資產”，其走勢與加密市場整體健康狀況密切相關。

Crash performance: Ethereum did fall harder than Bitcoin on Oct. 10, which is expected given it’s higher beta, but it still outperformed most altcoins and held key levels. ETH’s price plunged from about $4,800 (near its all-time high around Oct. 6) down to roughly $3,436 at the low on Oct. 10, a drop of approximately 28% from peak, or ~12% on a daily basis as reported. Some sources noted an intraday low closer to $3,500, but Waters’ report cites ~21% decline which likely is peak-to-trough. After that initial jolt, Ethereum rebounded above $4,000 quite quickly – it was back to ~$4,254 by end of Oct. 11. As of Oct. 22, ETH trades around the $3,800–3,900 range, still about 20% below the early October high, but it has recuperated from the worst of the crash. Relative to BTC, ETH’s ratio dipped during the crash (meaning ETH underperformed BTC initially), but it stabilized afterward.

市場暴跌表現：以太坊在10月10日的跌幅大於比特幣（符合其較高beta特性），但仍優於多數山寨幣且守穩關鍵支撐。ETH自10月6日高點約$4,800一路下探，10月10日最低至約$3,436，從高點計跌幅約28%，當天單日跌幅約12%（各來源略有差異，有的指最低到$3,500，Waters報告則指跌幅約21%為高低點跌幅）。經過初步衝擊後，以太坊很快反彈至$4,000以上——10月11日收復至$4,254左右。至10月22日，ETH約在$3,800～3,900間震盪，雖距10月初高點仍差約20%，但已明顯脫離本輪最深谷。若與BTC相比，這波下跌期間ETH/BTC比率同樣走弱（意即ETH初期表現遜於BTC），但隨後趨於穩定。

Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem did experience some stress: on Oct. 10–11, many DeFi protocols saw large liquidations (e.g., over-collateralized loans on Aave, Maker vaults getting liquidated). However, the system overall functioned without major failures – a testament to its robustness. This prevented a worst-case downward spiral. By mid-October, ETH had one of its strongest daily rallies in months (a ~14% up day on Oct. 19) as confidence returned and possibly as whales bought the dip in DeFi assets, which indirectly supports ETH.

以太坊DeFi生態確實受到壓力：10月10–11日期間，多個DeFi協議出現大額清算（如Aave的超額抵押貸款、Maker金庫被自動清算）。然而，生態系運作總體來看並無重大失靈，展現出其韌性，也避免了最壞的死亡螺旋。10月中旬，ETH迎來數月以來單日最強反彈（10月19日一度大漲約14%），信心回歸，甚至有巨鯨逢低買進DeFi資產，進而間接支撐ETH市場。

Why it (relatively) held up:

• High Utilization and Demand for Gas: Even during the sell-off, Ethereum’s network was extremely busy – partly because of the sell-off. People were scrambling to move funds, adjust positions, trade on DEXs, etc., all of which require ETH for gas fees. On Oct. 10, gas prices spiked with the surge in activity. That means arbitrageurs and traders needed to hold ETH to pay those fees, creating a baseline demand. Also, some DeFi protocols automatically buy ETH (to burn as fees or for liquidity) when volume spikes. The result: Ethereum’s utility provided some natural buy pressure even as speculators sold.

• 高使用率與Gas需求：即便在大跌期間，以太坊網路依然極度繁忙——部分正因為市場暴跌。用戶集中搬移資金、調整倉位、在DEX上交易等，全部都需要ETH繳交gas。10月10日，活動暴增造成gas費率飆升，意味套利者及交易員必須持有ETH繳費，產生底層剛性需求。同時部分DeFi協議在成交量暴增時會自動回購ETH（作為手續費燒毀或補充流動性）。因此，ETH的實用性在投機盤拋售時形成自然買盤支撐。

• Staking Mechanism Reduces Liquid Supply: With Ethereum’s move to proof-of-stake, a huge amount of ETH is locked up in staking (over 28 million ETH staked, roughly 20%+ of supply). While there is liquidity via liquid staking derivatives (LSDs like stETH), many ETH are effectively out of circulation or in long-term holders’ hands. During the crash, there was no evidence of a mass unstaking – withdrawals from the staking contract remained routine, not panic-driven. This implies a large portion of ETH supply was not on the market to be dumped, cushioning the blow. In fact, some stakers may have taken advantage of lower prices to spin up new validators or top-up collateral.

• 質押機制減少可流通供給：自ETH改用PoS以來，大量ETH被鎖定於質押合約（超過2800萬顆，佔總供應逾20%）。雖有流動質押代幣（如stETH）提供流動性，但實際上許多ETH脫離流通，甚至集中在長線持有者手裡。這次下跌中，未見大規模解質押情況——合約提款仍屬日常，非恐慌性賣壓。這意味大部分ETH供應壓根不會被拋售，有助於減緩跌勢。事實上，有些質押者可能趁低價增設新的驗證者或補充抵押品。

• Institutional and Developer Conviction: Ethereum has a broad base of stakeholders beyond day-traders: developers building on it, enterprises experimenting with it, and institutions (some via funds or futures) with longer-term theses. That collective conviction can create dip-buying. It’s telling that in the weeks after the crash, Ethereum-based ETFs saw fresh inflows (e.g., Ethereum futures ETFs had some upticks as per fund flow reports). Additionally, large DeFi players would buy ETH on discount to deploy into yield strategies. MakerDAO’s system, for instance, uses ETH as collateral; if ETH gets too cheap, arbitrageurs buy it to open DAI loans or to arbitrage liquidations.

• 機構與開發者信心：以太坊持有人涵蓋範圍遠超短線散戶，包含生態開發者、企業用戶、機構（部分透過基金與期貨）等長期參與者。這份“共同信仰”助推逢低買盤。值得注意的是，這波暴跌之後數周，跟ETH相關的ETF有新資金淨流入（如以太坊期貨ETF資金出現小幅回溫）。同時大規模DeFi玩家會趁ETH折價買進，用於收益策略。舉例來說，MakerDAO系統以ETH為抵押物，當ETH價格過低時，套利者會入場購買以開設DAI借貸或參與清算套利。

• Reduced Leverage After Initial Flush: Like Bitcoin, Ethereum had a lot of leverage that got flushed out on Oct. 10. More than a few large ETH long positions were liquidated in that $4.8K to $3.5K drop. By Oct. 12, the perpetual futures funding for ETH had turned deeply negative then normalized, indicating the excess long leverage was gone. This cleared the path for a more organic price, less at risk of further cascade absent new shocks. Also, options data showed many traders had hedged with puts (e.g., $3,600 strike puts for mid-October) – once the crash happened, those hedges could be closed or took profit, removing constant sell pressure.

• 初步清算後槓桿壓力大減：與比特幣類似，以太坊在10月10日清算大量槓桿，多頭被大量爆倉（從$4,800到$3,500區間內）。到10月12日，以太坊永續合約資金費率轉深度負值再恢復正常，顯示過量槓桿已被清掉，價格壓力趨向自然，只要沒新衝擊就較難再雪崩。期權數據也顯示不少交易員此前已用put作避險（如10月中旬3,600美元履約價的put），暴跌落地後這些避險可獲利了結，賣壓隨之減輕。

Risks and forward-looking: Ethereum wasn’t the top performer in this crash, but it didn’t disgrace itself either. Going forward, macro factors (like interest rates and tech stock correlation) will continue to impact ETH significantly, perhaps more than idiosyncratic factors. One looming event: Ethereum ETF approvals. The market is expecting spot ETH ETFs in the U.S. possibly in 2024. Anticipation of that could help ETH, whereas delays or rejections could hurt sentiment.

風險與展望：在這次暴跌中以太坊雖非絕對強勢，但表現穩健。展望未來，總體經濟因素（如利率、科技股相關性）預計仍將對ETH產生重大影響，甚至超過自身生態波動。一個重大事件是以太坊ETF審批。市場普遍預期2024年美國將可能批准現貨ETH ETF，這種預期若發酵將有利ETH，反之若不如預期則恐影響資金情緒。

Another consideration is Ethereum’s fee market dynamics and Layer-2 adoption. If more activity migrates to Layer-2 networks (like Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync) due to high fees, the direct demand for ETH as gas on mainnet might lessen. However, those L2s still ultimately settle in ETH on Layer-1, and many use ETH as their native gas too (Optimism and Arbitrum are moving towards paying fees in ETH). So Ethereum’s role remains pivotal.

另一個動態是以太坊費用市場結構及Layer-2採用率。若因主鏈費用過高，更多用戶和活動遷徙至Layer-2網絡（如Arbitrum、Optimism、zkSync），則ETH作為主鏈gas的直接需求會有所下降。不過這些Layer-2最終都要用ETH在Layer-1清算，許多（如Optimism、Arbitrum）更逐步轉向以ETH直接支付L2 gas，因此以太坊的關鍵地位仍難以動搖。

From a resilience standpoint, one potential risk is DeFi contagion. In this crash, DeFi protocols handled things well; but if there were a failure (say an algorithmic stablecoin break or a major exploit) coinciding with market stress, ETH could face double pressure as both an asset and the collateral backbone.

從韌性角度觀察，以太坊仍有潛在“DeFi連鎖風險”。這次危機中DeFi協議表現堅強，但若未來有“演算法穩定幣崩盤”或“重大漏洞事件”同時發生於市場下行，ETH除了自身資產價值外，還會背負作為整個抵押骨幹的額外壓力。

For scenarios:

• Bull case: ETH reclaims $4,500 and beyond, potentially leading a new cycle of innovation (perhaps around tokenized real-world assets, given Galaxy’s note that tokenization is a tailwind). If Bitcoin ETF gets approved, an ETH spot ETF might follow, injecting fresh institutional capital. Under this, ETH likely outperforms BTC again in a bull run, as it often does.
• Bear case: If macro goes risk-off or if any ETH-specific event (like a delay in the next protocol upgrade) spooks investors, ETH could retest the post-crash lows around $3.5K. A break below that would be concerning, possibly targeting the low-$3K range where a lot of trading volume occurred earlier in 2025. Watch ETH/BTC ratio – continued weakness there might signal rotation out of ETH into BTC by big players, often a defensive allocation.
• Key

情境展望：

• 看多情境：ETH重返$4,500以上，甚至帶動新一輪（例如圍繞現實資產代幣化，參考Galaxy指出的“代幣化”順風）創新週期發生；若BTC ETF獲准，ETH現貨ETF有望跟進，帶來機構新資金，亦有望在牛市中再次優於BTC表現。
• 看空情境：若總體經濟風險偏好降溫，或ETH本身有負面事件（如升級延遲），ETH可能重新測試暴跌後低點$3,500一帶，如再度失守則要留意2025年初大量成交區的$3,000上下支撐。ETH/BTC比率若持續走弱，往往代表大戶正從ETH回流BTC作防禦配置。
• 關鍵 ……indicators: 監控鏈上活動（交易量下滑可能代表熱度冷卻）、質押存款／提領模式（如果出現大量提領可能偏空，但目前尚未見到），以及以太坊基金會或ICO時期巨鯨的大額ETH移動（這些機構的大量拋售可能對價格造成壓力）。

總結來說，以太坊仍然是加密領域的關鍵基礎設施。它在市場暴跌中展現出的「韌性」部分來自於其不可或缺——許多參與者根本無法完全放棄ETH而不連帶離開整個生態圈。這種黏著性讓它雖然彎曲卻沒有徹底斷裂。雖然這次（因約21%的跌幅）沒能躍居我們的榜首，但很清楚，以太坊在市場面臨拋售時依舊是較為強韌的資產之一。

6. Chainlink (LINK): 由鯨魚與真實應用支撐的預言機龍頭

簡介：Chainlink是領先的去中心化預言機網路，為區塊鏈智能合約提供現實世界的數據（如價格資訊、事件訊號等）。LINK代幣用於支付節點營運者數據費用，而節點營運者通常也需要質押LINK作為擔保。Chainlink已是DeFi不可或缺的基礎設施——其價格預言機保障數百億美元價值安全。除了價格數據外，Chainlink正拓展新服務，例如隨機數（VRF）、自動化、跨鏈互通（CCIP）。本質上，Chainlink是鏈間溝通的中間層，而LINK是驅動其經濟運轉的代幣。

暴跌表現：LINK雖然也未能完全避開10月10日的拋售潮，但相對表現穩健且後續回升強勁。價格從十多美元（約18美元）高點跌至最低約15美元（10月11日盤中），大約跌幅20%。在最動盪時刻，LINK曾短暫跌破16美元，但迅速反彈。10月20日，LINK已反彈至約17.40美元，甚至在復甦初期的24小時內出現+13.6%的大漲。當時大部分山寨幣還在修復傷口。截至10月22日，LINK維持在17–18美元之間，幾乎與暴跌前持平甚至略有上升。

值得注意的是，Chainlink在暴跌之後幾天明顯脫鉤大盤：多數代幣箱體盤整時，LINK卻一路攀升，10月21日甚至接近20美元區域的局部高點。這種相對強勢非常醒目——Chainlink成為此次復甦中領漲的焦點。

支撐其表現的原因：

• 鯨魚累積 & 持有人結構：或許最關鍵的因素——鏈上數據顯示，大戶（「鯨魚」）在暴跌期間與之後積極加碼LINK。根據Lookonchain分析，自10月11日以來，約30個新鯨魚錢包掃貨626萬枚LINK（約1.16億美元），短時間內大量布局。這些買盤顯然認為LINK價值被低估，並看好Chainlink長期角色。有強力買家存在形成價格底部。事實上，每當LINK探至15美元左右，這些機構似乎就在等著接貨。Chainlink社群一直強調，相當多LINK掌握在長期擁護者（以及專案金庫，且未積極出售）手中，降低了流通拋壓。這波鯨魚行動證實高資產玩家認為LINK低價有吸引力，進一步增加韌性。

• 真實應用與收入：Chainlink實際有基本用例——它不是那種只炒作的空殼山寨。多鏈協議都會付費使用Chainlink服務。近期，Chainlink推出新的經濟模型（Chainlink Staking v0.2及未來版本），費用機制透明化。其2025年第三季報告顯示與多家巨頭合作：與Swift共同串接銀行、與DTCC和Euroclear做金融基礎建設，甚至受美國商務部採用試點鏈上政府數據。這些具體進展在市場動盪時有助於增信，投資人能以真實合作案作為價值支撐。此外，Chainlink在預言機領域市佔率（按保障價值高達62%）極高，代表DeFi回溫時對LINK的需求會同步升溫。這些條件讓LINK在眾多山寨幣中算是「有基本面支撐」的棄風標的。

• 低槓桿與過去表現不佳：進入十月前，LINK其實不是熱門標的，社群甚至認為其估值偏低（距離2021歷史高點$52還遠）。市場上對LINK的槓桿投機並不多——事實上，永續合約資金費用率在暴跌前呈中性或略為負值，顯示無過度投機。所以當市場暴跌時，LINK多單爆倉壓力並不嚴重。另外，由於LINK在此前行情落後於部分代幣，持有人反而多是有耐心的長線派、而非追漲殺跌的短炒族。因此，功能較弱的籌碼早已在前幾個月洗出，這一輪留下的持有人更穩。

• 生態整合（質押與CCIP）：Chainlink新推出的跨鏈互通協議（CCIP）2025年獲得應用（甚至有銀行進行測試）。隨著CCIP用戶數成長，參與者需持有LINK支付服務費。這個敘事即使在暴跌時也支撐多頭信心：Chainlink有望搶占多鏈未來市場。此外，Chainlink質押（v0.1起步規模小，但v1.0將擴大）能鎖住部分LINK、降低流通量。有部分投機者也許押寶未來質押擴張會大幅減少市面籌碼，低接LINK成為相對穩健的策略。

風險與後勢觀察：Chainlink最大質疑過去在於實際應用未能完全反映LINK價值（因為數據費用常由協議以自家代幣支付或補貼）。然而，Chainlink Economics 2.0企圖藉由分潤和擴大質押改變此狀況。如果新經濟模式未能兌現——譬如節點運營商根本不需購買太多LINK，或手續費規模持續偏低——投資論據會變弱。

另一點為競爭和自主性。部分專案正嘗試替代預言機或開發自研預言機以降低對Chainlink依賴。如果有主流公鏈（如Solana或新型L2）選擇競品或自家方案，Chainlink的壟斷地位可能被動搖。不過目前看來，Chainlink的網絡效應仍然強大。

就市場層面來看，若加密進入長熊，連有根本支撐的LINK也會被磨耗。回顧過去，LINK在熊市同樣從高點大幅回落。它具韌性，但非刀槍不入。且鯨魚存在有兩面性——若他們持續收集很好，但若選擇高點派發，那波拋售也可能成為漲勢天花板。

後勢觀察：短線值得追蹤的一指標是LINK價格與預言機實際採用成長的對比。如果看到例如Chainlink服務費用顯著提升（不論官方披露或由節點收入推算），則可能吸引更多基本面投資人。另外，Chainlink即將推出的staking v0.2以及後續版本：只要參與度顯著，流通量將持續降低，有望提振市場氛圍。

價格預測情境：

• 多頭：LINK強勢突破$20，甚至若大盤穩定後有望上探中段$20區間。觸發因素如CCIP獲大型銀行實務採用的官宣、或DeFi TVL暴增帶動預言機需求。技術面來看，$25是近年主壓，只要有效突破，全面大牛市從舊高甚至更上層也不是不可能。
• 空頭：如果鯨魚靜觀其變或受到宏觀利空，LINK可能回落至中段$10（$14–15）。主要支撐在$15（本次暴跌低點、多次防守位），若失守則$12是下一支撐（2025年初曾於該區間交易）。但考慮到大戶持續吸納，除非出現專案自身重大問題，該區域預期仍有強支撐。

總之，Chainlink本次暴跌的表現突顯了真實應用及強大持有者信念的價值。這幾乎是2018年的翻版（當年LINK在大盤下跌時逆勢大漲）——這次LINK沒單飛噴發，但在市場復甦過程中穩健領漲。這也提醒投資人：評估韌性時，應問自己「即使市場崩壞，這個代幣有什麼理由讓人不願割肉？」對於Chainlink而言，答案是肯定的——感謝大戶與其在加密基礎設施中的關鍵角色。

7. XRP (XRP)：靠應用與ETF話題撐住韌性的資產

簡介：XRP是XRP Ledger原生數位資產，這條區塊鏈最初設計為快速、低成本的跨境支付系統。它與Ripple公司關係密切，Ripple一直推廣XRP作為國際結算的橋樑貨幣（例如有部分支付機構透過其ODL（On-Demand Liquidity，隨需流動性）產品使用）。XRP的代幣設計有其獨特性：初始發行1000億枚（無挖礦），其中大部分由Ripple與創辦人持有。Ripple多年來陸續售出部分XRP作為營運資金，但有一大部分鎖定在托管賬戶（Escrow）並按計畫定期釋放。XRP自帶狂熱社群，且是歷史最悠久的加密資產之一，常年位居市值前十。

暴跌表現：XRP自10月10日前後走勢波動劇烈，但總體損失少於多數同業。期間據部分報導曾閃崩超過50%（約由$0.22震盪至$0.11），但極瞬即反彈，主要發生於流動性較弱的特定交易所。隨即迅速回升至$0.18–0.20區間。10月11日XRP報價約$0.19。值得注意的是，之後幾週XRP迎來一波強勁反彈：10月19日一度達到約$2.39（需注意該數據或有誤差）(possibly a price in different units, as $2.39 would imply a massive increase). Likely, the $2.39 figure is referencing XRP at $0.239 (24 cents), not $2.39, since XRP hasn’t hit $2 since 2018. We’ll clarify that XRP was hovering around $0.24 in mid-late October, which is a recovery from pre-crash ~$0.28 but not fully back. So net, XRP is down somewhat from early October levels, but considering the carnage, it held up relatively well. It never lost its top 5 market cap position.

可能是計價單位不同所造成的價格差異，因為 $2.39 代表著極大的漲幅。更有可能的是，$2.39 其實是在描述 XRP 價格為 $0.239（約 24 美分），而不是 $2.39，畢竟 XRP 自 2018 年以來從未突破 $2。這裡需要澄清的是，XRP 在 10 月中下旬大約徘徊在 $0.24，算是從暴跌前約 $0.28 稍有回升，但尚未完全復原。總的來說，與 10 月初的水位相比，XRP 還是略有下跌，但在這波慘烈行情中，已經算是表現得相當堅挺，一直都未跌出市值前五名。

What’s more, XRP had bullish news mid-month: multiple spot XRP ETF applications were filed, including one by CoinShares aiming to list on Nasdaq. This spurred optimism that XRP could see U.S. ETF approval following Bitcoin and perhaps Ethereum. Institutional interest was evident: in the week after the crash, about $61.6 million flowed into XRP investment products – one of the highest among all crypto assets. That’s a significant vote of confidence which likely contributed to price resilience.

而且，在 10 月中旬 XRP 還迎來一則利好消息：多檔現貨 XRP ETF 申請案提交，其中包含 CoinShares 擬在納斯達克上市的申請。這帶動了市場對 XRP 有望繼 BTC、甚至以太坊之後在美國獲准 ETF 的樂觀情緒。機構資金的動向也很明顯：暴跌發生後一週內，約有 6160 萬美元資金流入 XRP 投資產品——是所有加密資產中金額最高之一。這是極具指標性的信心表態，也為價格的穩定注入了助力。

Why it held up:

• Major Legal/Regulatory Milestones Achieved: Just a few months earlier (July 2025), Ripple won a partial victory in its long-running court case with the U.S. SEC, with a judge ruling that secondary market sales of XRP are not necessarily securities. This clarity removed a huge overhang on XRP. As a result, many exchanges relisted XRP in the U.S., and sentiment drastically improved. Because of that, the holders of XRP going into this crash were relatively confident and long-term. They had held through a multi-year bear due to the lawsuit and finally saw vindication. So, when the market dumped, XRP holders were perhaps less jittery – they’d been through worse specific to XRP. Additionally, Ripple itself, now past that legal hurdle, could continue expanding ODL and XRP use. This backdrop meant XRP had strong hands and “fundamental event support” under it.

• 重大法律/監管里程碑：就在幾個月前（2025 年 7 月），Ripple 在與美國 SEC 的長期訴訟中取得部分勝利，法院判定 XRP 次級市場交易不一定屬於證券。這一法律明確性為 XRP 消除了重大壓力。因而許多美國交易所重新上架 XRP，市場信心大幅回升。在這樣的背景下，這次暴跌時持幣的多是信心較強的長線投資者。他們經歷過多年熊市（因訴訟因素）終於等到正名，因此本輪下跌時，XRP 持有者反而沒那麼容易慌亂——對 XRP 來說，他們經歷過更糟的情況。此外 Ripple 本身也邁過主要法律障礙，能持續推動 ODL 與 XRP 應用布局。這使 XRP 形成了堅實的持幣基礎，以及「基本面事件支撐」。

• Institutional Inflows and ETF Narrative: As noted, the prospect of an XRP ETF (and several filings around Oct. 15) created a positive demand shock even as the broader market was shaky. Heavy institutional inflows of ~$61M into XRP products in one week is huge (for context, Bitcoin products saw outflows that week). This suggests that some big players rotated into XRP (perhaps viewing it as oversold or as a relative safe play with a clear catalyst). Those inflows provided buying pressure that helped stabilize price. Moreover, the narrative that XRP could be the first non-BTC/ETH asset to get a U.S. ETF gave speculators a reason to buy the dip or hold through volatility.

• 機構資金流入與 ETF 故事：如上所述，XRP ETF 的預期（10 月 15 日前後多檔申請）在大盤動盪時帶來需求驅動。單週約 6100 萬美元流入 XRP 產品相當驚人（同期比特幣產品還出現資金流出）。這代表有一些大戶選擇轉向 XRP（也許認為其被超賣，或作為明確利多題材的相對避險標的）。如此快速的買盤正是穩定價格的關鍵。此外，XRP 有望成為美國第一檔非 BTC/ETH 加密 ETF，這也讓投機者有誘因在低檔進場或耐心抱住。

• Utility as a Payments Token: While crypto trading was chaotic, XRP continued to be used in remittances and ODL corridors. It has inherent utility in moving funds quickly (XRP transactions settle in ~3-5 seconds with minimal fees). There are reports that during high Bitcoin and Ethereum fee events, some users and even arbitrage bots temporarily use XRP ledger to hop value between exchanges cheaply. This utility isn’t huge in volume, but it’s non-zero and can create baseline demand. Furthermore, some overseas markets (e.g., in Asia) see XRP as a quasi-stable high-volume coin to trade in and out of other altcoins (some exchanges have XRP pairs). So in a crunch, liquidity can pivot to XRP as an intermediary, ironically supporting it.

• 作為支付型代幣的用途：加密貨幣市場劇烈波動之際，XRP 依然在跨國匯款與 ODL 通道扮演要角。由於 XRP 具備資金快速過橋的實用性（約 3-5 秒完成交易且手續費極低），有報導指出，當 BTC/ETH 網路費用暴增時，一些用戶甚至套利機器人會短暫用 XRP 鏈進行跨交易所搬磚，節省成本。雖然此用途量體不算巨無霸，但卻維持一批剛性需求。再者，一些海外市場（如亞洲）視 XRP 為類穩定幣、超高流通量的交易媒介（多家平台設有 XRP 對）。關鍵時刻，資金流動性會集中在 XRP，反而撐住其身價。

• Concentrated Holdings Limiting Circulation: A significant portion of XRP is held by Ripple and certain large investors. Ripple releases 1 billion XRP from escrow each month, but typically re-locks most of it and sells only a part gradually OTC. During the crash, there’s no evidence Ripple flooded the market with sales; they likely stuck to their usual programmatic approach. In fact, if anything, Ripple might’ve paused selling given the conditions (speculative, but many projects halt token sales in down markets). So, the effective circulating supply is somewhat throttled. Also, many XRP holders stash their coins in wallets (not actively trading) to use for payments or out of loyalty. This limits the amount that could be dumped in a panic relative to something like an AVAX which has more freely floating supply with traders.

• 流通量受限於集中持有：大量 XRP 掌握在 Ripple 及某些大投資人手中。Ripple 每月從託管帳戶釋出 10 億枚 XRP，但往往會將大部分重新上鎖，僅小額於場外交易賣出。這次暴跌期間，並無證據顯示 Ripple 大量拋售，合理推測其依舊按照既有計畫操作。甚至根據市場慣例，某些項目在下跌市會乾脆暫停拋售（雖然無法證實 Ripple 是否這麼做）。因此，實際流通供給受到節制。此外，許多持有人將 XRP 存於錢包，並非活躍交易，而是用於實際支付或單純信仰持有。這讓恐慌砸盤的籌碼相對其他如 AVAX 這類流通籌碼較高的幣種要更少。

Risks and forward-looking: XRP’s future path has some promising catalysts but also a few risks. On the positive side, if those XRP spot ETFs get approved (decisions could come in late 2025 or early 2026), that’s a major legitimacy boost and could invite fresh capital. Additionally, Ripple is pushing expansion of its payment network and recently considering an IPO – anything increasing adoption of XRP in real payment flows or network effects on XRPL (like tokenized assets via XLS-20 or sidechains) can drive value.

然而，風險與前景也需注意。正面來看，若這些 XRP 現貨 ETF 能獲得批准（可能在 2025 年底或 2026 年初出爐），將為 XRP 大大提升正規性並吸引更多資金進場。此外，Ripple 也正積極拓展其支付網絡，近期甚至考慮 IPO——凡是增加 XRP 在真實支付流或 XRPL 網路效應的措施（如用 XLS-20 或側鏈實現資產代幣化等），都有助推升幣價。

However, risks include Ripple’s selling: Ripple still holds billions of XRP; if they or co-founder Jed McCaleb (who had an allocation he’s been selling) were to accelerate sales, that could pressure price. Another risk: competition in cross-border payments (e.g., stablecoins on Stellar, or new CBDC bridges) could limit XRP’s growth in its target use-case. Also, technically, XRP has a very passionate retail base which sometimes means it overshoots on hype and can have deep corrections.

但風險也不容忽視：Ripple 仍持有數十億枚 XRP，若 Ripple 或創辦人 Jed McCaleb（他本身也在持續賣幣）加快拋售，將為價格帶來壓力。另一個風險是，跨境支付領域競爭劇烈（如 Stellar 上的穩定幣，或者新興 CBDC 橋接方案），可能限制 XRP 的成長空間。此外，XRP 擁有極為狂熱的散戶擁護，有時因此在市場炒作時過度暴漲，但回檔修正也很劇烈。

Market-wise, XRP historically sometimes moves independently (due to news like court rulings or partnership announcements). That could happen again. For example, even if broader crypto dips, XRP might hold or rally on a specific ETF approval. Conversely, if crypto pumps but XRP ETF decisions are delayed or Ripple faces any setback (imagine SEC appeals victory, etc.), XRP might lag or fall.

從歷史來看，XRP 常會因法院判決、合作消息等與其他幣種脫鉤走獨立行情。這種情況未來仍可能發生。例如，即使大市下殺，若遇到 ETF 審核通過，XRP 反而可能持穩甚至上漲。相反地，若整體牛市但 ETF 決策卡關或 Ripple 遭新挫折（如 SEC 翻案等），XRP 可能反而落後甚至下跌。

Levels and scenarios: In a bullish scenario, XRP would aim to reclaim the $0.30 level (psychologically important) and then $0.50 (where it was before the SEC lawsuit in 2021). For context, the all-time high was ~$3.84 in Jan 2018 – far away, but if a real utility-driven or ETF-driven run happened, a push toward $1 (last seen in 2021) could be on the table. In a bearish scenario, without new positives, XRP could drift back to the low $0.20s or high teens (its flash-crash low around $0.18 is key support). Given how quickly it bounced from $0.18, that suggests solid buy interest there.

價位想像與情境分析：樂觀情境下，XRP 首要挑戰 $0.30（心理關卡），再來是 $0.50（2021 年 SEC 訴訟前水位）。歷史高點是 2018/1 月的約 $3.84 — 離現在很遠，但如果出現真正由實用性或 ETF 驅動的行情，重挑去年（2021）見過的 $1 不是完全沒可能。悲觀情境下，若沒有新利好消息，XRP 可能又掉回 $0.2 多或甚至 1 字頭區間（閃崩時低點約 $0.18，為重要支撐）。這波從 $0.18 拉回的速度，說明該處有強力買盤。

One should watch metrics like ODL volume (Ripple occasionally publishes how much XRP is used in their remittance product) and general sentiment in the XRP community (often seen on social trends – a hyped community can both be a strength and a weakness). In summary, XRP’s inclusion here as a top resilient asset stems from its unique position: it had already been battle-hardened by legal fights and was buoyed mid-crisis by institutional optimism. It reminds us that crypto isn’t monolithic – even in a broad crash, asset-specific developments (like an ETF filing or legal clarity) can make a coin diverge from the pack. XRP bent in the gale, but thanks to supportive winds of its own, it certainly did not break.

可以觀察 ODL 的成交量數據（Ripple 偶爾會發布其匯款產品中 XRP 用量），還有整體 XRP 社群的情緒（社群熱度既可能帶來強心針，也容易成為泡沫）。總結來說，XRP 能列為本次韌性最強代表之一，正是因為其獨特地位：不僅已歷經官司鍛鍊，也在風暴中心獲得機構資金信心加持。這提醒我們，加密市場並非鐵板一塊——即便在大崩盤中，針對某資產的重大消息（如 ETF 申請或法律明朗化）都能讓某幣脫穎而出。XRP 雖然經歷強風吹襲，卻憑藉自身順風，屹立不搖。

8. Maker (MKR): DeFi Blue Chip Buoyed by Buybacks and Yields

8. Maker（MKR）：回購與收益支撐下的 DeFi 藍籌

What it is: Maker (MKR) is the governance token of MakerDAO, the decentralized autonomous organization behind the DAI stablecoin. DAI is a collateral-backed stablecoin soft-pegged to USD, generated by users locking collateral (like ETH, USDC, etc.) in Maker Vaults. MKR holders govern the system – setting parameters like stability fees, collateral types – and crucially, MKR is designed to backstop the system (if collateral is insufficient, MKR can be minted to cover bad debt).

MKR 是什麼：Maker（MKR）是 MakerDAO 的治理代幣，MakerDAO 則是支撐 DAI 穩定幣的去中心化自治組織。DAI 屬於有資產抵押、錨定美元的穩定幣，用戶可將 ETH、USDC 等資產鎖於 Vault 製造 DAI。MKR 持有者負責治理機制—決定穩定費、抵押品種類等參數，而最關鍵的是，MKR 設計用於充當系統最後擔保：若資產抵押不敷，MKR 可被鑄造以填補壞帳。

On the flip side, when the system has surplus profits (from fees), it can use them to buy and burn MKR. Thus, MKR has a unique value flow: it’s like equity in a decentralized central bank/credit facility, accruing value from loan fees, and it can be burned with revenues. MakerDAO has become a giant in DeFi, with DAI one of the largest decentralized stablecoins. In 2023–2025, Maker introduced the concept of the Enhanced DAI Savings Rate, investing DAI reserves into real-world assets (like U.S. Treasuries) to earn yield, and using that to pay DAI holders and buy MKR.

相對地，當系統產生盈餘（例如手續費收入），就會用盈餘在市場上購買並銷毀 MKR。這創造了 MKR 獨特的價值流動—有點類似去中心化中央銀行或信貸機構的“股份”，可收取放貸費用、並運用收入減少流通供給。MakerDAO 已成為 DeFi 巨頭，DAI 是最具規模的去中心化穩定幣之一。2023–2025 年，MakerDAO 推出「增強型 DAI 儲蓄利率」策略，將 DAI 儲備投資於美國國債等現實資產來賺取收益，並用收益獎勵 DAI 持有者、同時回購 MKR。

Crash performance: MKR was on an uptrend before the crash and, impressively, it barely faltered. On Oct. 10, MKR dipped along with the market, but by a relatively modest amount (estimated ~–30% at worst, perhaps from around $1,500 to $1,050 at the low). It quickly recovered; in fact, throughout early October, MKR was making higher highs. By Oct. 13, just three days after the crash, MKR was trading above $1,300 again. It then continued its rally – by Oct. 20, MKR touched around $1,845, its highest in years. This means MKR not only survived the crash, it thrived after, hitting new multi-year highs when most other coins were far below their peaks. Over the month, MKR is up substantially (one source indicates an increase of 115% in October, though that might be overshooting – it roughly doubled from mid-$1,000s to nearly $2,000 by late Oct).

暴跌表現：MKR 在本輪暴跌前其實就處於上升趨勢，更難能可貴的是，它的回檔幅度極小。10 月 10 日和大盤一同下挫，但最大跌幅約為 30%（從 $1500 跌到最低約 $1050），之後很快即反彈。嚴格來說，10 月上旬 MKR 還持續創高。暴跌三天後的 10 月 13 日，MKR 已重新站回 $1300 以上，隨後一路攀升，到 10 月 20 日已突破 $1,845，刷新多年新高。這代表暴跌之後，MKR 不僅避險成功，反而趁勢創出歷史高點，而多數主流幣種尚遠未重返高位。全月來看，MKR 漲幅相當可觀（某消息來源稱 10 月漲幅達 115%，即從 $1000 內中段翻到月底近 $2000）。

So, MKR’s performance is remarkable: it’s arguably the best-performing DeFi token in 2025, and the crash was just a blip on its trajectory. It held around the psychologically important $1,000 level during the turmoil and then tore upward.

可見 MKR 表現極其亮眼：堪稱 2025 年 DeFi 板塊的績優代表，本次暴跌反而只是其長期攻勢中的一個小插曲。暴跌期間，它撐住了重要心理關口 $1,000，之後直接爆發走高。

Why it held up:

• Buyback and Burn Mechanics: MakerDAO has been earning significant revenue from the high interest rates and its real-world asset investments. Over the past year, Maker generated over $70 million in net income for MKR holders. They implemented a system where surplus from fees is used to buy MKR from the open market and burn it. This effectively creates consistent buy pressure on MKR. It’s like a stock buyback funded by protocol profits. When the market crashed, Maker’s revenue didn’t drop – if anything, DAI usage spiked (people seeking stability) and stability fees continued. So MakerDAO likely kept accumulating surplus. The market knows this: they anticipated ongoing buybacks. There’s even a “Smart Burn” module that was activated in 2023, regularly purchasing MKR. This mechanism sets a floor, as MKR is fundamentally deflationary when the system is healthy. Indeed, MKR’s supply has been shrinking; combined with a

為什麼 MKR 能撐住：

• 回購與銷毀機制：MakerDAO 在高利率及現實資產投資中產生可觀利潤。過去一年，協議共為 MKR 持有者創造逾 7000 萬美元淨收益，並已制定將盈餘用於市場回購並燒毀 MKR 的機制。這創造了持續的買盤壓力，有點類似協議分紅資助的“股票回購”。市場大跌時，Maker 的收益並未銳減——反而因為大家尋求避險，DAI 使用量刺升，穩定費收入持續。換言之，MakerDAO 很可能在這段期間還在累積盈餘。這點市場早已消化：大家預期 MKR 會持續被協議回購。甚至 2023 年還啟動了「Smart Burn」模組，定時自動購買 MKR 銷毀。這機制等於在市場下方設有保底，健康運轉時 MKR 就是天然通縮。事實上，MKR 流通量持續縮水；再加上……relatively low float (~900k MKR liquid out of 1M total, as some is in strategic hands), the crash saw few MKR on exchanges to be sold off.

流通量相對較低（約 90 萬枚 MKR 可流通，總量為 100 萬枚，部分掌握在策略性持有者手中），因此當市場暴跌時，能在交易所賣出的 MKR 其實不多。

• High DAI Savings Rate (DSR) Attracting Capital: Maker raised the DAI Savings Rate to as high as 8% at times in 2025 to promote DAI usage. This made DAI very attractive to hold, and DAI’s market cap grew. Why is this relevant for MKR? Because the yield paid to DAI holders is funded by Maker’s earnings (which come from loan interest and yield on assets). It demonstrates sustainable profits if they can pay out 5%+ to DAI and still have leftover. It also means more DAI in circulation (which requires users to lock more collateral and perhaps pay fees). This virtuous cycle – more DAI demand, more fees, more MKR burn – was well underway prior to the crash. The crash actually saw DAI’s supply jump by ~5%, likely because investors fled to DAI as a safe haven, opening new Maker Vaults or swapping into DAI. So Maker’s business arguably benefited in the crisis, which would directly or indirectly benefit MKR valuation.

• 高 DAI 儲蓄率（DSR）吸引資金：為了促進 DAI 的使用，Maker 在 2025 年一度將 DAI 儲蓄率拉高至 8%。這讓持有 DAI 變得非常有吸引力，DAI 的總市值也成長了。這和 MKR 有什麼關聯？因為給 DAI 持有者的高收益，其實是由 Maker 的利潤支付（利潤來源包括借貸利息和資產孳息）。如果可以支付超過 5% 的 DAI 年利率還有盈餘，就顯示出 Maker 的獲利模式有可持續性。這也代表市面上的 DAI 增加（意味更多使用者需鎖定抵押品，並可能支付相關費用）。這種良性循環——DAI 需求增加，費用收入上升，MKR 銷毀變多——在暴跌前已經成型。市場暴跌期間，DAI 供給還增加了約 5%，推測是資金逃往 DAI 當避風港，新開了許多 Maker Vault 或兌換為 DAI。所以從業務面來看，Maker 在危機中反而受惠，也直接或間接提升 MKR 的估值。

• Market Perception as Quality DeFi: In a risk-off, people dumped a lot of speculative DeFi tokens, but Maker is considered “DeFi blue chip.” It has real cash flows, a decade-long track record, and relatively conservative management (the protocol is careful with collateral risk). The Trakx report noted “the MKR rally continues as the DAO backs enhanced Saving Rates” even while majors slumped. So Maker was on its own trajectory of strength. Many DeFi investors rotated funds into MKR and out of weaker tokens, a flight to quality within DeFi. The crash may have accelerated that trend – if you’re holding a random yield farm token and you see MKR holding firm, you might decide to consolidate into MKR, viewing it as safer.

• 市場定位為高品質 DeFi：在資金避險時，投資人賣掉了許多投機性 DeFi 代幣，但 Maker 卻被視為 DeFi 藍籌。它有實質現金流、十年的穩健歷史紀錄、相對保守的管理（協議對抵押風險相當謹慎）。根據 Trakx 報告指出，「即使主流幣暴跌，DAO 政策支持高儲蓄率，MKR 依舊持續上漲。」所以 Maker 走出自己的強勢路線。許多 DeFi 投資人將資金從較弱勢代幣轉進 MKR，進行 DeFi 內部的品質輪動。這次暴跌或許反而加速了這個趨勢——你如果本來持有一些冷門農幣，看到 MKR 穩住，可能會選擇換入 MKR，認為更安全。

• Limited Leverage & Supply On Exchanges: MKR isn’t heavily traded on futures markets. It’s relatively low liquidity for big leverage, and many holders stake it in governance (though Maker’s gov participation is often small, large holders like Paradigm or a16z hold a chunk off exchanges). There were no huge liquidation cascades involving MKR. Also, its price had been rising steadily, so many MKR were likely already taken off the market by investors anticipating long-term gains. The biggest historical seller was the Maker Foundation, but it dissolved and distributed its MKR to the community. So one of the known sell pressures ended in 2021. Now, with much held by committed DeFi funds and MakerDAO itself, there just wasn’t a lot up for sale when panic hit.

• 槓桿和交易所供給有限：MKR 在期貨市場的交易並不活躍，能用於高槓桿交易的流動量極低，許多持有者還用來參與治理（雖然治理參與率常常不高，但像 Paradigm、a16z 這些大戶多數不放在交易所）。暴跌期間沒有出現 MKR 的大規模連環清算。此外，MKR 價格之前一路穩健上升，很多 MKR 應該已經被長線看多的投資人提早買入鎖倉。歷史上最大賣壓來自 Maker Foundation，但該組織已於 2021 年解散，MKR 也早已分配給社群。現在多數 MKR 由專業 DeFi 基金與 MakerDAO 自己持有，恐慌時真正掛單賣出的並不多。

Risks and forward-looking: Maker’s resurgence is strong, but it faces a few strategic challenges. One is centralization of revenue – a huge portion of Maker’s profits comes from real-world assets (like $1+ billion of DAI is backed by short-term bonds via a partnership with Coinbase, and another chunk in a fund). This ties Maker to TradFi; if yields drop or counterparties default, that’s risk. Also, Maker’s founder Rune is pushing a controversial “Endgame” plan involving new tokens and subnetworks (some complexity that not all MKR holders love). Governance risks – a bad vote or mismanagement – could hurt confidence.

風險與展望：Maker 的重新崛起很強勁，但也面臨幾個策略性挑戰。其中一個是收益來源集中——目前 Maker 大量利潤來自現實世界資產（例如有超過 10 億美元的 DAI 由與 Coinbase 合作持有的短債作為抵押，還有其他基金）。這使得 Maker 和傳統金融綁在一起；如果債券殖利率大跌，或合作對手違約，就會有風險。此外，創辦人 Rune 正在推動一個頗具爭議的“Endgame”計畫，涉及新代幣和子網絡（架構較複雜，並不是所有 MKR 持有者都買單）。治理風險——例如重大提案被錯誤通過或管理失誤——也可能打擊信心。

Another risk is competition from upcoming stablecoins or L2-native systems that could cut into DAI’s share. However, DAI has proven resilient and even benefited as truly decentralized alternative to USDC/USDT that face regulatory debates.

另一個風險是新興穩定幣或 Layer2 原生系統的競爭，這些可能會壓縮 DAI 市占。不過，DAI 目前展現了很強的韌性，甚至因受到監管爭議的 USDC/USDT 風暴影響，成為去中心化替代品而受惠。

Looking ahead:

展望未來：

• Bullish scenario: If crypto recovers and interest rates stay moderately high, Maker will keep printing money. MKR could continue appreciating, possibly challenging its all-time high around $6,000 (from 2021) in a long-term bull case. Shorter term, breaking above $2,000 would be psychologically big, and then $3,000 where it was in early 2022. Achieving those would likely require DAI growth and new revenue streams (like lending out DAI at scale).

• 多頭情境：如果加密市場復甦、利率維持在中高檔，Maker 將繼續大賺特賺。MKR 價格可能續創新高，長線看回 2021 年的歷史高點 6,000 美元也不是夢。短期內，若能突破 2,000 美元心理大關，接下來是 2022 年初的 3,000 美元。要達到這些，可能需仰賴 DAI 擴張以及新的營收來源（例如規模化放貸 DAI 等）。

• Bearish scenario: If macro conditions flip (e.g., rates plunge leading to lower yields for Maker’s RWA, or crypto downturn reduces demand for DAI loans), Maker’s revenue could shrink. MKR might retrace some of its big run, perhaps back to the $1,000–$1,200 zone where it consolidated. Also, any depeg scare with DAI (not seen this crash, DAI held peg well) could hit MKR hard because MKR is the last backstop for DAI’s solvency.

• 空頭情境：如果總體經濟反轉（例如利率大降，Maker 的現實世界資產收益大減，或加密熊市導致 DAI 借貸需求降溫），Maker 收入會萎縮，MKR 可能會回檔一大波，回測 1,000–1,200 美元的盤整區。另外，如果 DAI 出現脫鉤危機（這次暴跌沒發生，DAI 持穩），會直接重擊 MKR，因為 MKR 是 DAI 最終的擔保機制。

Key indicators to watch: DAI supply (growing supply generally means Maker usage is up), DAI Savings Rate (how much is Maker paying, and can it sustain that – currently around 5% APY after a temporary boost higher), and MakerDAO governance announcements (any new buyback schedules or changes to reserves).

關注指標：DAI 供應量（成長代表 Maker 生態活躍）、DAI 儲蓄率（目前短暫拉高後約年化 5%，需觀察 Maker 能否長期承擔）、MakerDAO 治理公告（新的回購計畫或準備金政策變動等）。

In conclusion, Maker’s MKR token showcased how a DeFi project with real cash flows and a token burn can act defensively in a crisis – almost like a dividend-paying stock that investors flock to in economic uncertainty. Its rise through the crash underlines a broader theme: quality tokens with revenue and conservative management not only survive crashes better, they can come out the other side with strengthened narratives and investor trust.

總結來說，MKR 展現了擁有實際現金流和代幣銷毀機制的 DeFi 項目，在危機時可以扮演防禦型資產——就像經濟不確定時大家愛抱的現金股。MKR 殺出重圍也凸顯一個更宏觀的趨勢：有現金流、管理保守的高品質代幣，不但比較能熬過暴跌，甚至能帶著更強敘事和信任穿越熊市。

9. Dash (DASH): Old-School Digital Cash Rallies on Privacy Narrative

9. Dash（DASH）：老牌數位現金因隱私敘事而強勢反彈

What it is: Dash is a cryptocurrency that forked from Bitcoin in 2014 (originally known as Darkcoin, then rebranded). It focuses on fast, low-cost payments and pioneered features like Masternodes (special nodes that lock up Dash collateral to enable services and earn rewards) and instant transactions (InstantSend). Dash also has optional privacy features (PrivateSend, which mixes coins to obscure the trail, though not as private as Monero). Over the years, Dash gained adoption in certain niches – for instance, it’s used by some merchants and in countries like Venezuela as an alternative currency. It has a self-funding treasury system where a portion of block rewards funds development and community projects.

什麼是 Dash：Dash 是 2014 年從比特幣分岔出來的加密貨幣（最初名為 Darkcoin，後來改名）。主打快速、低手續費支付，並首創主節點機制（Masternodes，將 Dash 抵押在特定節點，提供各種服務並獲取獎勵）以及即時交易功能（InstantSend）。Dash 還有可選啟用的隱私功能（PrivateSend，透過幣混合來遮蔽痕跡，但私密性仍不及 Monero）。多年下來，Dash 在部分利基市場上獲得實際應用——如某些商家和像委內瑞拉這類國家，Dash 作為法幣替代貨幣。Dash 也有自給自足的國庫系統，區塊獎勵的一部分自動撥款支持開發和社群專案。

Crash performance: Dash had one of the more extreme intraday crashes (like many mid-cap alts) – reportedly it wicked down about 33% or more (one report said from ~$30 to ~$20 on Oct. 10) – but then it staged a powerful comeback. In fact, over the month, Dash’s price roughly doubled, making it one of the stronger gainers. It was noted as up ~110% in 30 days. For example, if Dash was around $35 pre-crash, dropped to $20, it surged to around $50 by late October. Indeed, on Oct. 20, Dash broke above $50 which was a significant level (the highest in over a year). This means Dash not only recovered losses but far exceeded them, effectively making the crash a springboard.

暴跌表現：Dash 跟許多中型代幣一樣，當日跌幅異常劇烈——據稱跌了約 33% 甚至更多（有報導說 10 月 10 日從 30 美元急殺到 20 美元）——但之後強力反彈。事實上，Dash 一個月內價格幾乎翻倍，成為期間漲幅數一數二的主流幣，單月大漲約 110%。例如暴跌前 Dash 約 35 美元，跌到 20 美元後，十月底又衝到 50 美元。特別是 10 月 20 日，Dash 突破 50 美元，創下一年多來新高，意即不僅回補所有跌幅，還遠遠超過，堪稱把這波暴跌當成跳板。

During the crash, Dash’s quick recovery suggests that buyers stepped in aggressively at lows. Possibly the Dash community, or automated buying from algorithms that saw the drop as overdone given Dash’s relatively low liquidity. Dash’s Masternode structure also means a lot of supply (over 60% of circulating Dash) is locked into nodes, which can’t instantly be dumped, limiting sell pressure.

在暴跌當下，Dash 能這麼快回升，意味著低價時有人火速進場買；可能是 Dash 社群自己出手，或一些演算法認為其跌幅過度而自動撿便宜，畢竟 Dash 流通量本來就不高。再加上 Dash 的主節點設計，超過 60% 的流通 Dash 都抵押在節點裡，這部分根本無法即時賣出，很有效壓低賣壓。

Why it held up (and then some):

為何能守住（甚至反彈更強）：

• Privacy and Payments Narrative: In the aftermath, privacy coins had a moment (as discussed with Monero and Zcash). Dash often gets grouped in the “privacy coin” basket, even if its privacy is optional. So when Zcash and Monero were rallying strongly post-crash, Dash benefited from a sector rotation. Traders looking at ZEC up 300% and XMR climbing might speculate that Dash, as a laggard, would follow. And it did – rising over 100%. It shows how narratives can lift an older coin if conditions align. Additionally, the “digital cash” use case for Dash gained a bit of spotlight as people looked for decentralized money alternatives (with fiat concerns, etc.). The more turmoil in traditional systems, the more certain communities tout Dash for remittances or local commerce.

• 隱私與支付敘事：這波危機後，隱私幣迎來短線狂熱（如 Monero、Zcash）。Dash 雖然隱私功能可選，但常被歸為隱私幣族群。於是 Zcash、Monero 暴漲後，Dash 也搭到板凳，受益於板塊輪動。交易者看到 ZEC 漲 300%、XMR 也大漲，難免猜想 Dash 這個跟班也會補漲，事實上它也超過 100% 的漲幅，證明只要敘事有利，老幣還是能再登高。此外，“數位現金”定位讓 Dash 在大家尋找去中心化貨幣替代品時受到關注（像法幣疑慮等）。傳統體系越動盪，某些社群越會推薦 Dash 當作匯款或本地支付方案。

• Low Circulating Supply & Masternode Lockup: Dash has about 10.5 million coins circulating (of ~19M max), and importantly, ~5-6 million of those are locked in Masternodes (each masternode requires 1000 Dash). This means the effective daily tradable supply is quite limited. When panic selling happened, not many masternode owners likely disbanded their nodes to sell (that’s a multi-step process and these are committed holders earning yield). So the sell-off was mostly from the smaller fraction on exchanges. Once those weak hands sold, the price bounced due to lack of further supply. Conversely, as price started rising after, it doesn’t take huge inflows to move the needle. That can create a slingshot effect: low float assets rebound sharply after a flush.

• 流通量低＆主節點鎖倉：目前 Dash 大約有 1,050 萬枚流通（總量 1,900 萬），重點是有 500–600 萬枚鎖在主節點（每個主節點需抵押 1,000 枚 Dash）。因此每日真正可買賣的流通供給其實超少。大跌時，持有主節點的人大多不會解散來賣（這過程也繁瑣，而且早已領息成習慣），於是賣壓主力來自交易所這小部分。等弱手出清後，上升行情就因流動量稀少開始急彈。換句話說，低浮額資產被洗盤後常出現彈弓效應。

• Dedicated Community Buying the Dip: Dash still has an active community and some treasury to support development. The community likely saw sub-$25 prices as a steal. On social media, prominent Dash users were encouraging each other to take advantage of the discount, pointing to fundamentals like increased real-world usage and improvements (Dash Core Group has been working on Dash Platform, etc.). There’s also the aspect that some Latin American users who rely on Dash for transactions could have been net buyers as crypto dipped (especially if local fiat currencies were also volatile – for example, some Venezuelans treat Dash as a stable-ish store of value relative to bolivars).

• 社群積極進場撿便宜：Dash 社群依然活躍，國庫還能支援開發。這次低於 25 美元時，應該有不少人視為超低價在社群媒體互相喊單，看中 Dash 實體應用成長及技術進步（如 Dash Core Group 正在打造 Dash Platform）。特別一提，部分拉美地區用戶平常就靠 Dash 轉帳，幣價大跌時搞不好還是淨買家（尤其當地法幣波動也大時——如委內瑞拉人將 Dash 視為防禦法幣貶值的避風港）。

• Little to No Derivatives: Like Monero, Dash isn’t heavily shorted or on major futures markets (BitMEX delisted it during regulatory pressure on privacy coins). So we didn’t see any systematic shorting of Dash during the crash – it was more spot-driven. Once spot panic was done, there was no follow-on via derivative cascades. Also, no big custodians hold Dash (it’s not on Grayscale, etc.), so there weren’t institutional dumps either. This isolation sometimes helps, as weird as it sounds.

• 幾乎沒衍生品：如同 Monero，Dash 在合約市場很少被做空（BitMEX 就因監管壓力早已下架 Dash）。所以這波崩盤沒有出現合約機構聯手砸盤，主要是現貨主導。當現貨地板出清後，幾乎就沒延伸瀑布賣壓。此外沒有大機構進行託管（如 Grayscale 沒有 Dash 信託），也少了機構性拋壓。這種與世隔絕在特殊情境反而變優勢。

Risks and forward-looking: Dash’s resurgence is nice for holders, but can it sustain? Dash’s usage metrics (transactions per day, active addresses) are modest compared to big blockchains. Its privacy feature isn’t as strong as Monero’s and could face regulatory scrutiny (some exchanges delisted Dash

風險與後勢觀察：Dash 這波強彈雖讓持幣者開心，但能否維持？Dash 各項數據（如每日交易量、活躍地址數）相比主流鏈還是偏低。其隱私功能也不如 Monero 強，還可能面臨監管壓力（部分交易所已下架 Dash）citing privacy coin policies, though Dash argued it’s not really that private). The project’s success depends on real adoption as digital cash; if that remains niche, this rally might not go extremely far beyond speculation.

此外，流動性是一把雙刃劍：它幫助 Dash 短時間內暴漲，但在下跌時，如果買家消失，低流動性也可能讓價格同樣迅速大跌。另外，每個月都有大量新的 Dash 產出（作為礦工和主節點的獎勵）——存在通膨（年率約 3.6%）。這些獎勵通常會被賣出（主節點需支付成本或賺取利潤）。所以，供給端有持續的賣壓，意味著 Dash 通常需要穩定的需求才能避免價格下跌。

展望未來：

• 如果隱私/支付的敘事繼續火熱，Dash 可能持續跟隨 Monero/Zcash 的表現。例如，若監管單位加強金融監控，有些人可能會藉由專注隱私的幣種避險——這時 Dash 可能會受到更多關注。
• 若市場轉向追求風險，Dash 也有機會受惠於山寨幣季心態。歷史上多頭階段，交易者常會在龍頭幣大漲後尋找落後和“老派”山寨幣炒作，Dash 就屬於這種類型。它以前是前十名，有些人也可能押注它重拾部分昔日榮光。
• 若偏空或市場只是回歸常態，Dash 可能會回落整理。若目前守在 $50，值得關注的支撐區或在 $35-40 附近（先前長時間打底區）。上方壓力則在 $60-70，這是 2021 年底盤整區。值得一提的是，歷史高點約為 $1,600（2017 年山寨幣瘋牛時）。除非出現極端泡沫，不太可能再見到這價位，但加密市場也見過許多意外。

另外一點：Dash 的金庫可以用於市場行銷或生態整合。現在若主動出擊，有機會把握市場新興興趣。任何有關 Dash 應用的新消息（如被支付 App 整合，或被匯款業者採用）都可能提振投資人對其基本面的信心，而不僅僅是炒作。

總結來說，Dash 的韌性和隨後的反彈突顯了即使是老牌幣種，只要條件正確，也能再現第二波生機。它結合了結構性的供給優勢（主節點鎖倉）和時機上的敘事（隱私/數位現金關注），不僅成功避開崩跌，甚至在後續跑贏大多數同類。這說明復甦時的市場輪動有時會青睞那些最出乎意料的選擇——曾被認為過氣的，也能因供需結構特殊與敘事輪替領漲。

10. Zcash (ZEC): High-Octane Privacy Coin that Rebounded to New Highs

What it is: Zcash is a privacy-focused Layer-1 cryptocurrency, launched in 2016 as a code fork of Bitcoin with zk-SNARK encryption enabling private transactions. Zcash offers two types of addresses: transparent (t-addresses, which function like normal Bitcoin addresses) and shielded (z-addresses, which are fully encrypted). Users can send ZEC with full anonymity via shielded transactions. Zcash has a fixed 21 million supply like Bitcoin, but its emission curve is such that about 75% of coins have been mined already. It initially had a founder’s reward (a portion of each block to founders/investors and a foundation), which has since evolved into a dev fund to sustain the project.

Zcash’s development is spearheaded by the Electric Coin Company and the Zcash Foundation. It’s known for strong cryptography, and it has been a testbed for cutting-edge privacy tech.

Crash performance: Zcash’s ride was wild. It plummeted ~45% on Oct. 10, falling from roughly $273 to $150 in hours. That was a steep drop, even worse than many alts. But then an astonishing thing happened: within a day, ZEC fully recovered all its losses and surged to new highs. By Oct. 11–12, Zcash hit about $291, actually exceeding its pre-crash high of $273. Essentially, if you blinked, you missed the crash entirely in ZEC – it was down 45% and then up more than 90% from that low in very short order. From Oct. 1 to Oct. 11, Zcash ran from ~$74 to $291, a nearly 4x move in less than two weeks (most of that move came after the crash)! It’s up ~405% over 30 days, by far one of the best-performing assets in the entire market. This put ZEC around its highest price since mid-2018.

So despite an intraday gut-punch, Zcash ended the period as arguably the top “resilience” story – not because it didn’t fall (it did), but because it rebounded so strongly that crash buyers quadrupled their money at peak.

幣種介紹：Zcash 是一個專注隱私的 Layer-1 加密貨幣，於 2016 年從比特幣分叉而來，採用 zk-SNARK 加密，實現完全隱私交易。Zcash 提供兩種地址：透明（t-address，運作類似比特幣）以及隱密（z-address，完全加密）。用戶可透過 z-address 進行全匿名交易。Zcash 總量固定 2,100 萬枚，已經發行約 75%。最初設有創辦人獎勵（每區塊部分區塊獎勵給創始人/投資人及基金會），後來改為開發基金維持項目發展。

Zcash 由 Electric Coin Company 與 Zcash Foundation 主導研發。以強大加密技術著稱，也是先進隱私技術的測試平台。

崩跌表現：Zcash 走勢極戲劇化。10 月 10 日短短幾小時暴跌約 45%，從 273 美元下殺至 150 美元，跌幅比多數山寨幣還慘。但驚人的是，一天內 ZEC 不僅完全回漲，還創新高。10 月 11-12 日價格一度衝上 291 美元，超過崩跌前高點 273 美元。基本上，如果你眨下眼就會錯過 ZEC 的崩盤——短線先跌 45%，然後又從低點飆升 90% 以上。10 月 1 日至 11 日，Zcash 從約 74 美元漲至 291 美元，不到兩週幾乎翻了四倍（多數漲幅都在崩跌後出現）！30 天來大漲約 405%，是全市場表現最佳資產之一，回到 2018 年中價位高點。

所以，儘管日內重挫，Zcash 最終堪稱此波“韌性”故事之王——並非因為它沒跌（其實有），而是反彈力道之猛，讓在低點撈底者最高獲利四倍。

為什麼能撐住（最終原因）：

• 隱私復興與避險吸引力：崩盤期間市場有明顯避險潮流——不只往比特幣，更流向隱私與不受官方掌控的資產。川普關稅話題與地緣政治衝突升高，加劇各界對監控、審查的疑慮。投資人湧入隱私幣以對抗市場與政治風險。Zcash 作為專精隱私、且起跑前市值較小的標的，成為資金追逐的對象。某種程度上它成了短線避風港——雖然本身波動很大，但在“擁有政府無法監控資產”的敘事下，吸引到資金。標題正好點出：Zcash 在 200 億美元加密崩盤中逆勢上漲 19%，主因是隱私特色和美中緊張。所以許多人把 ZEC 視為具匿名性的數位現金，尤其在各界想迴避監控之際。

• 技術面供給擠壓：Zcash 的供給狀況也加劇漲勢。它依然靠挖礦發行，但每日新增量很小（2025 年約 2,300 ZEC/天）。而 10 月初 ZEC 剛開始起漲就已出現大量需求（有說法是因新資金、隱私幣指數等主題），一旦突破價格關卡就引發 FOMO。崩跌時弱勢多單被洗出（所以才跌 45%），但重點是，這波並非基本面利空，單純是掛單被掃光。買家重新進場時，交易所流通籌碼極少。做空 ZEC 也不易（能放空的交易所本來就不多，且上漲時融資利率高）。所以，賣壓稀少、動能買盤大量湧入，導致猛烈的 V 型反彈。一些交易所（如火幣等）流動性本來就較低，即使零星買單也能推高價格。

• 新產品和生態發展：這段期間 Zcash 也有一些基本面利好消息。例如社群正討論轉向 Proof of Stake（如實現能減輕礦工賣壓）。也有投資產品相關話題，傳言大型資產管理機構（如 Pantera 或其他）有 Zcash 信託傳聞，歐洲也推出 Zcash ETP。這些不僅帶來合規正面形象，也拓展潛在投資人群。此外，Zcash 技術也被其他專案借鑑（如部分以太坊 L2 考慮引入 ZK-proof 技術）。總之在隱私需求升溫下，比起其他新興隱私幣，Zcash 地位更穩，機構也更有意採用，引發高度投機興趣。

• 巨鯨與社群協作：Zcash 崩跌後，有觀點認為早期資金／大戶主動撐盤。由於其部分開發資金來自 ECC 和補助，有許多利益相關方希望項目成功、價格不淪陷。隨著隱私論述發威，大戶可能進場搶買，點燃更大炒作（純屬推測，但整體漲勢規模明顯有大金主助推成分，非純散戶力量）。

風險與展望：Zcash 的暴力反彈也潛藏風險。暴漲過快意味可能超漲，熱度一消散就易修正回落。回顧歷史，ZEC 一向波動極大，前幾輪上漲後常伴隨大幅回吐。若隱私敘事消退或獲利盤出貨，價格將大幅滑落（像 10 月 22 日就已從高點 291 卻步至 270 多元）。

監管風險：隱私幣一向是監管機構關注對象（雖然比起 Monero，Zcash 或許因“隱私為選擇性”而比較沒那麼遭針對）。但一有交易所下架或政府負面評論，價格就會受衝擊。此外，Zcash 的實際用戶採用度偏低——大多交易仍用 t-address，z-address 真正佔比小，讓外界質疑是否除投機外實際用途有限。

樂觀面則是，倘若這波真的是大浪起點（有些人拿來類比過去 Monero 狂飆），Zcash 未來有機會挑戰多年新高。下一個關注價位為 360 美元（2018 年大跌後高點），再來是 700 美元（2021 年牛市山寨高峰）。極端情境則是挑戰 2018 年初的 800 美元，但若真要到此，或許需強勁的隱私主題或重大催化（如突然宣布 Zcash 轉型 POS，帶來供給衝擊，礦工拋壓消失）。

情境觀察：假如地緣政治持續緊張，隱私幣可能繼續呈現與傳統市場逆向走勢。例如貿易戰或監控新聞越多，ZEC 持續走高，值得持續追蹤。反之，若局勢緩和或新監管強制加密幣 KYC，隱私幣題材就會面臨壓力。

還應留意 Zcash 隱私池（shielded pool）占比（若越多 ZEC 被 shielded，代表更多人用它來隱私轉帳，是健康訊號）。以及關注 Electric Coin Company 任何新品、技術升級或重要合作消息，都會影響市場氛圍。

總結來說，Zcash 的表現堪稱高風險高報酬型韌性代表——是本篇所列幣種崩跌最深，但最後反彈幅度最高的一個。這也說明，所謂韌性，有時不只是能夠抗跌，更是大跌後有強力反彈的能力。ability to avoid falling. ZEC’s case shows how quickly market narratives can flip – from despair to euphoria – and how an asset with the right story at the right time can not only recover but reach new heights while others are still regrouping.

ability to avoid falling。ZEC 的案例顯示市場敘事翻轉之快——從絕望到狂喜——只要一項資產能有適時的故事，不僅能夠復甦，甚至能在其他資產仍在重整時創下新高。

Why These Names Resisted: Cross-Cutting Patterns

為何這些代幣能撐住：關鍵共通特徵

Having profiled each of the top resilient assets, we can distill some common themes that help explain why these tokens weathered the Oct. 10 storm better than the rest:

在分析過每個最具韌性的資產後，我們可以歸納出一些共通主題，這些都能說明為何這些代幣能比其他資產更好地度過 10 月 10 日的暴跌：

1. Strong Holders & Low Leverage: Many of these assets were (and are) held by investors with long-term conviction or utility needs rather than by speculative hot money. For example, Tron’s high staking ratio and Monero’s ideological user base meant fewer panic sellers. Concurrently, the absence or low presence of leveraged futures for coins like Monero, Dash, and Zcash prevented cascading liquidations. With fewer shorts or overleveraged longs, these assets didn’t get as mechanically hammered.

2. 強大持有者與低槓桿：這些資產多數（且至今）由長期信仰者或真正有使用需求的投資人持有，而不是投機熱錢。例如，Tron 高質押率與 Monero 意識形態強烈的用戶群，都代表恐慌性拋售人數較少。同時，像 Monero、Dash、Zcash 這類幣種，幾乎沒有槓桿期貨市場，也避免了連鎖斷頭賣壓。因為沒有太多空單或過度槓桿多單，這些資產不會受到機械性拋售衝擊。

3. Real Demand and Cash Flows: Several resilient tokens have organic demand drivers or revenue that persisted through the crash. MakerDAO’s system continued earning fees (even benefitting from stablecoin flight to DAI), leading to MKR buybacks. Chainlink’s oracles remained in use securing DeFi, and its partnerships signaled future growth, prompting whales to buy. Utility acted as a buffer – people needed these tokens for something (be it paying fees, staking, or transacting), so there was a baseline bid even on Black Friday. In contrast, many purely speculative altcoins without current use cases saw demand evaporate entirely, hence deeper drops.

4. 真實需求與現金流：不少韌性代幣具有有機成長的需求動能或持續的收入，即使在暴跌時期仍可維持運作。像 MakerDAO 在此期間持續賺取手續費（甚至受益於穩定幣資金湧向DAI），促成 MKR 回購。Chainlink 的預言機在 DeFi 安全中依舊被使用，且新夥伴關係帶來未來成長預期，吸引大戶買入。效用本身成為緩衝——人們對代幣有實際需求（如支付手續費、質押或作為交易媒介），即使在「黑色星期五」也有基本買盤。相較之下，純投機而無實際用途的山寨幣則需求蒸發，跌得更深。

5. Supply Constraints: A notable pattern is constrained effective supply. Tron and Dash have large portions of supply locked (staking, masternodes). Bitcoin and Ethereum have significant long-term holder and staked segments respectively. XRP’s circulating supply is curbed by escrow schedules. In Zcash’s case, a huge run-up had already moved lots of coins into new hands (probably off exchange into cold storage or shielded addresses), so available supply during the crash was thin. These factors meant order books didn’t face relentless sell pressure relative to depth. When shock hits, low float assets can either plummet (if no buyers) or, if there are buyers, bounce quickly – in our cohort, it was more the latter scenario.

6. 供給受限：另一個關鍵特徵是可流通供給被有效約束。例如 Tron 與 Dash 有大量幣被鎖定（質押、主節點），比特幣和以太坊也有顯著長期持有人與質押分別占比。XRP 則受限於託管解鎖進度。至於 Zcash，在此前大漲時序就已有大量代幣進入新手上（多半從交易所移至冷錢包或遮蔽地址），因此暴跌時市場流通供給相對稀少。這些因素讓訂單簿深度相對賣壓能抵擋。當衝擊來臨，低流通量資產要嘛無人接盤暴跌，要嘛一有買氣就反彈——在我們這群資產裡多偏後者。

7. Positive Catalysts Amid Carnage: Uncorrelated good news helped enormously. XRP had ETF filings and institutional inflows the very same week of the crash – that’s a powerful counterweight to fear. Chainlink announced high-profile partnerships, reminding investors of its blue-chip status. Bitcoin had the narrative of “cleansing leverage = new bull cycle ahead” touted by some analysts. And as noted, privacy coins benefited from geopolitical catalysts (surveillance fears) that had nothing to do with typical crypto market cycles. These idiosyncratic catalysts acted like life rafts carrying the asset while others drowned.

8. 利多催化劑未中斷：與市場無關的好消息帶來極大幫助。例如 XRP 在暴跌同週遞交 ETF 文件且有機構資金流入——這是對抗恐懼的強力砝碼。Chainlink 宣布重要合作關係，強化藍籌印象。比特幣則有「去槓桿=新多頭週期」的敘事。又如，隱私幣受到地緣政治驅動（如監控疑慮）而與市場週期無關。這些特殊催化事件彷彿資產的救生艇，讓其脫穎而出。

9. Deep Liquidity (for BTC/ETH) and Market Positioning: Bitcoin, and to an extent Ethereum and BNB, showed that being large and liquid is itself a defense. In a panic, large players rotate into the most liquid coins as safe havens. Bitcoin’s relatively modest 14% drawdown, versus 30-50% for many alts, demonstrated that effect. Additionally, post-crash, investor positioning favored these majors – Bitcoin dominance shot up as traders kept allocations in BTC rather than diving back into high-beta bets. That sustained demand helped BTC recover and in turn steadied the whole market.

10. 深度流動性（比特幣/以太坊）與市場地位：比特幣（及一定程度的 ETH、BNB）本身就因規模龐大、流動性高具備防禦力。市場恐慌時，大型玩家會轉進流動性最高的幣作為避風港。比特幣相對較小的14%跌幅，對比許多山寨幣的30-50%，證明此效應。此外，崩盤後投資人資金配置偏向這些主流幣——比特幣主導率大幅提升，交易者寧留主流資產不回投高 Beta 標的。持續的需求協助 BTC 率先回穩，也因此帶動大盤止跌。

11. Community & Governance Response: The way communities and core teams respond in a crisis can impact resilience. For instance, MakerDAO’s governance did not panic-sell collateral or lower stability fees drastically – they stuck to their framework, and the system worked as designed, which shored up confidence in MKR. Tron’s team actively touted Tron’s stability during the chaos (Justin Sun publicly highlighted TRX’s strength), potentially encouraging holders to stay calm or even buy more. In short, coins with proactive, steady leadership and community messaging fared better than those with radio silence or internal panic.

12. 社群與治理之回應：核心社群與團隊在危機中的回應會直接影響資產韌性。例如 MakerDAO 治理層並未恐慌性拋售抵押品，也沒有大幅調降穩定費，堅持原有架構並讓系統如設計運行，增強 MKR 信心。Tron 團隊在市場混亂時積極強調 Tron 穩定（Justin Sun 也公開大讚 TRX 韌性），這或鼓勵用戶不恐慌甚至加碼。簡言之，有主動穩健領導與正面訊息的項目，表現普遍優於缺乏主導/團隊失調的標的。

13. Lack of Overvaluation Going In: Assets that were already not overhyped prior to the crash had less air to deflate. Monero and Dash, for example, were relatively quiet in preceding months – no huge speculative run-up, so fewer late FOMO buyers to capitulate. Likewise, Chainlink had traded sideways for a while, and MKR, despite rising, was underpinned by clear fundamentals. By contrast, the worst-hit tokens were often those that had spiked on hype and leverage (several gaming/metaverse tokens, highly speculative new L1s) – they simply had more froth to blow off. Our resilient cohort was, by and large, comprised of established, sometimes underappreciated tokens rather than recent fad coins.

14. 事先未高估：那些暴跌前本身就沒有過度炒作的資產，泡沫較少、可跌空間有限。例如 Monero 與 Dash 在先前幾個月表現淡定，沒有大規模投機推升，後進買盤少，暴跌時沒那麼多人棄守。同樣地，Chainlink 一直橫盤，MKR 雖然走高卻有基本面支撐。相對地，跌最重的常常是漲幅全靠炒作與槓桿的新奇幣（如遊戲/元宇宙、剛出道 L1 幣）——它們光是泡沫就要消耗很久。我們這批「韌性黨」大多是根基深厚、甚至有點被市場忽略的老幣，不是短線流行貨。

15. Exceptions and Idiosyncrasies: Not all these assets share all traits, of course. Zcash, interestingly, was highly volatile and had a big run-up before the crash – normally a recipe for a hard fall, which did happen but was swiftly reversed. ZEC’s case was very idiosyncratic: a perfect storm of low supply and thematic momentum. Bitcoin’s case is singular as well: it’s a class of its own with institutional status. But even so, the broad themes of “committed holders, tangible usage, and supply/demand dynamics” apply to each in some combination.

16. 特例與差異：當然，不是每個資產都具備以上所有特徵。例如 Zcash 在暴跌前波動很大且大漲，按理說會重挫——確實先大跌但反彈更快。ZEC 屬於極端個案：低流通供給搭配主題炒作的完美風暴。比特幣的地位更是特殊，已躋身機構級資產。但無論如何，「堅定持有者、明確用途、供需動態」這三大主軸，都以不同組合貫穿這批資產。

Why others lagged: It’s illuminating to contrast these resilient tokens with some that lagged badly:

至於其他資產表現為何如此遜色，對比下很有啟發性：

• Many DeFi tokens (outside MKR) like Aave, Uni, etc., dropped harder and stayed down. They lack buyback mechanics and were more speculative yield plays; once yields temporarily dried up in chaos, demand did too.

• 很多 DeFi 代幣（除 MKR 外，如 Aave、Uni 等）跌幅更大且爬不起來。他們缺乏回購機制、主打高風險收益，一旦市場混亂、收益消失，需求便瞬間蒸發。

• Highly inflationary tokens or those with upcoming unlocks (e.g., certain Layer-1 or Layer-2 tokens) suffered as investors preemptively sold, fearing more supply hitting the market. None of our top resilient picks had imminent unlock overhangs – their tokenomics were either fixed or deflationary or slow-emission.

• 通膨型代幣或即將解鎖的代幣（如某些 Layer-1、Layer-2 幣）也很慘，投資人怕供給增加提前賣出。而我們的「韌性黨」沒有這種即期解鎖壓力——它們的代幣經濟模型要嘛固定，要嘛通縮或緩慢釋放。

• Coins heavily used in leveraged trading (SOL, ADA, DOGE, etc.) were victims of their own popularity: heavy long interest got margin-called, and once those dominoes fell, prices overshot downwards. The resilient set mostly avoided that fate (with ETH being a partial exception given its more significant drawdown – and indeed ETH had a lot of leverage compared to, say, BTC or TRX).

• 在槓桿交易極為熱門的幣（如 SOL、ADA、DOGE 等）死於人氣過旺：很多多單被斷頭，一旦骨牌效應起來價格跌過頭。韌性黨多數避開這種命運（ETH 算是半例外，跌幅稍大，因它槓桿使用較 BTC、TRX 多）。

• Thin liquidity smaller caps simply couldn’t find a bid in the maelstrom. Some decent projects were down 60-70% simply because no one was home to catch the knife. This underscores that even if fundamentals are fine, without liquidity and a buyer base, a token can free-fall. It’s a credit to even mid-caps like Dash that they had enough loyal participants to step up.

• 流動性稀薄的小市值幣根本沒人接盤。在混亂中不少好項目也能跌六七成，單純因為沒人「接刀子」。這也說明即使基本面不錯，沒流動性沒買盤照樣直墜。能像 Dash 這種中型幣還有夠多忠實用戶，即是一種品質保證。

In sum, the coins that “shocked absorbers” share a kind of quality premium – whether quality in the form of strong fundamentals, dedicated communities, or structural token support (burns/lockups). Quality doesn’t mean zero volatility, but it means the ability to bounce back and retain trust.

總結來說，能成為「避震器」的資產都有品質溢價——無論是基本面實力、社群凝聚、還是機制設計（銷毀/鎖倉）。品質並不代表無波動，但意味著能重振旗鼓、重新贏得信任。

Scenario Analysis: What Now for the Resilient Cohort?

情境分析：韌性黨接下來怎麼走？

The crypto market’s next phase is uncertain – will it stabilize, retest lows, or roar into a recovery rally? Here we map out three broad scenarios and how our resilient cohort might behave in each:

加密市場接下來如何發展還很難說——是盤整、再探低點、還是直接暴力反彈？我們歸納三大路徑，並分別預測「韌性黨」在各自情境下的可能表現：

1. Continued Choppy Consolidation: In this scenario, the market neither collapses nor fully takes off, but trades in a range (Bitcoin perhaps between $100K–$120K, total market cap flattish). Volatility subsides somewhat after the October shock. In such an environment:

2. 維持震盪盤整：此路徑下，市場未崩未飆，而是在固定區間震盪（如比特幣大致卡在 $100K–$120K、總市值橫向發展），10 月崩盤的波動漸漸消退。在這種情境：

• Resilient assets could maintain moderate outperformance. Investors, still wary from the crash, might stick with “safer” choices. That means Bitcoin likely keeps a high dominance; its resilient comrades like ETH, BNB, and perhaps MKR and LINK could also retain investor favor due to their fundamental stories.

• 韌性黨可望維持適度超額表現。歷經暴跌，投資人還是偏好「較安全」資產，意味比特幣主導率會維持高檔，ETH、BNB、MKR、LINK 這類有故事的幣也可能繼續受青睞。

• On-chain indicators to watch: If consolidation happens, look at funding rates on perpetuals – ideally they normalize around zero, indicating balanced positioning. For our resilient assets, if we see funding starting to turn consistently positive (meaning longs pay shorts), that might signal complacency or overconfidence returning – a warning sign. Conversely, if funding remains neutral/negative, it implies the market isn’t overextended in these names.

• 鏈上指標：須觀察永續合約資金費率——理想情況下費率回歸零，表示多空平衡。若韌性資產的資金費率連續轉正（多單付錢給空單），可能代表市場過於自滿，需警惕。反之，若費率持續中性/偏負表示買盤未過度。

• Metric dashboard: In a choppy market, monitor order book depth for signs of thinning liquidity. One metric: the 2% market depth (how much quote is there within 2% of mid price). Assets like BTC and ETH have deep books (hundreds of millions); if that depth starts shrinking, it could presage sharper moves or vulnerability even for them. Also, keep an eye on stablecoin supply – if it’s rising, that dry powder might eventually flow into risk assets (bullish), whereas falling stablecoin supply (money leaving crypto) might lean bearish.

• 監控指標：在盤整市場需密切追蹤訂單簿深度，看流動性有無萎縮。常用標準是2%深度（中間價正負2%內有多少掛單），BTC、ETH 深度本很高，若縮水須警覺劇烈波動風險。另留意穩定幣供給，增多代表資金蓄勢待發（利多），減少則是資金流出傾向空方。

2. Renewed Downside (Another Leg Lower): Suppose macro takes a turn for the worse – maybe a flare-up in the trade war, or a stock market correction that drags crypto down, or some crypto-specific black swan. How do our resilient tokens fare if, say, Bitcoin lurches below $100K and altcoins bleed again?

3. 重新探底（再跌一波）：假設宏觀層面再有利空——貿易戰惡化、股市修正拖累幣圈，或有黑天鵝事件——若比特幣跌破 $100K 且山寨幣集體崩跌，韌性黨可能會這樣走：

• Likely, the same group would outperform relative to others, but note: outperformance is relative. They could still fall, just less. Bitcoin would probably drop the least – perhaps another ~15-20% slide. Tron might again hold relatively well given its pattern, as might Monero and MKR (especially if DAI demand spikes again). The highest-beta among our group is Zcash – it could retrace a lot of its recent gains in a fresh risk-off wave.

• 多半還是韌性黨最抗跌，但要留意這是「相對值」。他們一樣會跌，只是跌得比別人淺。比特幣可能最抗跌，大約再-15~20%；Tron、Monero、MKR（若 DAI 需求再度爆量時）也可望相對扛壓；最高 Beta 的 Zcash 可能回吐近日全部漲幅，遇到新一波損益傾向風險時更易大幅回檔。

• Indicators to watch: Stablecoin dominance – in a renewed sell-off, we’d expect the percentage of total market in stablecoins to rise (money fleeing volatile assets). If that jumps quickly, it means capital is seeking safety, which often benefits Bitcoin (paradoxically stablecoin dominance up means prices down, but it can imply rotation to stables – eventually a source for re-entry). For tokens like MKR, check DAI’s peg and market cap. If DAI starts trading above $1 (a slight premium) during a sell-off, it means high demand for decentralized stablecoins – bullish for MKR resilience. For privacy coins, watch their price correlation with gold or other hedges; if correlation with gold spikes positive, it suggests they’re trading as crisis hedges, meaning they may decouple from general crypto downside.

• 風險管理小提示：對於持有這些具有韌性的代幣者，即使它們較為堅挺，仍建議使用停損或警示價等風險管理工具。例如，若 Tron 決定性跌破 0.30 美元支撐位，或 MKR 跌破 1,200 美元（僅為關鍵價位的例子），則即使是強勢幣也可能出現棄守，後市下跌恐加速。

3. 風險偏好回升（“Uptober” 再現）：假如崩盤影響完全消化，宏觀環境轉向有利（例如聯準會於 2026 年初釋出降息訊號、壓力舒緩），加密貨幣情緒轉多，比特幣收復高點，主流幣及山寨幣順勢走強：

• 在突然的風險偏好行情中，這些韌性高的資產短期可能落後於高 Beta 投機幣。事件危機後，最受重創的投機性代幣反彈幅度往往最大（橡皮筋效應）。部分被重挫的 DeFi 或迷因幣，有機會出現更高百分比的反彈。但從絕對價位來看，那些具備韌性的主流幣可能領先創下新高並持續吸引資金，尤其機構資金（如 BTC、ETH、LINK、MKR）。舉例來說，比特幣衝高，主導率可能微幅下降（其他小幣跟漲），但 BTC、ETH 以及優質的 LINK 或 MKR 仍有望創在地新高，吸引新資金。
• 關鍵觀察指標：資金費率與持倉 OI 的累積。在多頭行情中，若我們開始發現山寨幣永續合約資金費率大幅飆升（代表槓桿多單激增），這表示熱度飆升——短線有利價格動能，但中期容易過熱拉回。尤其要注意 ZEC 或 DASH 這種短線有表現的幣，若突然有大量新期貨掛牌或 OI 快速暴增，可能就見頂了。反之，像 BTC 與 ETH 這類主流，資金費率略為偏多是合理現象。
• 同時，觀察這些平台的開發者和用戶活躍度：例如 Ethereum gas 使用量若持續攀升，證明鏈上需求支撐價格。Chainlink 鏈上 oracle 調用量如頻繁增加，也代表基本面有支撐。這些可判斷價格上漲是否伴隨實質成長，抑或純屬炒作。
• 獲利出場策略：行情熱烈反彈時，考慮追蹤停利停損，或分批出場，特別是 Zcash 或 Dash 這類無法長期維持高點的幣。至少等到基本面重新跟上。至於 BTC、ETH、MKR 這類核心藍籌，可以續抱，但仍需隨時關注風險。

風險管理指引：不論哪種情境，讀者都應積極管理風險，不應預設這些資產穩如泰山。實用做法包括：

• 分散配置——本清單本身就涵蓋多種類別（價值儲存、隱私、DeFi 等），持有一籃子資產可分散特有風險。
• 設警示對重大基本面變動：如 MakerDAO 治理投票改變 DAI 政策（影響 MKR）、交易所下架消息（影響隱私幣）、項目方爆發高層醜聞等，這些都可能快速改變資產前景。
• 合理運用停損單：例如，若某個幣種在成交量放大下，失守暴跌後漲幅的一半，那很可能是動能反轉的技術信號，在支撐位下方設停損留住本金，可轉向他資產。

總結來說，這些資產雖經歷十月烈火考驗證明韌性，未來仍定有新挑戰。韌性是持續性的特質，而非一次性評價。投資人應不斷檢驗這些代幣之所以強韌的原因（社群凝聚、健全代幣經濟、真實應用）是否依然存在或有所提升，隨時準備因應市場敘事變化調整持倉。

觀察清單與提前預警信號

針對每一檔具韌性的資產，建議持續監控部分特定指標或事件，以洞察韌性是否失效或支撐減弱：

• Bitcoin (BTC)：留意交易所流向——若看到 BTC 不斷流入交易所（通常是賣壓前兆），且未同步流向長期持有地址，可能代表機構有分批出貨行為。同時追蹤 BTC 主導率——若在多頭時期主導率急降，可能暗示資金往風險更高的小幣輪動（或預示 BTC 將相對轉弱）。

• Tron (TRX)：關注 USDT 在 Tron 上的流通量。若 Tether 不再重押 Tron，或有新更快公鏈搶得穩定幣市場，Tron 交易需求可能驟降。此外，Tron 的自家穩定幣（USDD）若出狀況，或 Tron 上主要 DeFi dApp 被駭，將衝擊其穩定性敘事。

• Monero (XMR)：持續留意監管政策。譬如有大國直接封殺隱私幣，或大型交易所下架 Monero，流動性將急凍——韌性恐出現裂痕。還有 XMR 的算力與網絡健康，挖礦算力下滑，可能是礦工棄守或安全性下降的警訊。

• Binance Coin (BNB)：重點關注 Binance 交易所相關新聞。不論是訴訟判決、銀行端出入金遇阻、交易量市佔流失，皆可能直接打擊 BNB 的應用及信心。也要留意 BNB 鏈的應用狀況；若開發者和用戶大量出走（如轉投其他鏈或 Layer-2），連帶鏈上日交易暴跌，支撐 BNB 價格的基本需求就消失了。

• Ethereum (ETH)：觀察質押解鎖時程與參與率。若短期內大量 ETH 申請解鎖（例如質押收益大跌），將暫時推高流通量。另外，L2（Layer-2）生態壯大也有雙面刃效果：未來若 L2 都用自身代幣支付 gas（已有人提議），對 ETH 的需求會被掏空一部分——雖然目前還不用太擔心，仍是中長期趨勢觀察重點。

• Chainlink (LINK)：重點關注其預言機使用率及競爭格局。若有新興競爭者在整合數量上追趕，或主要 DeFi 協議改用其他預言機，是重要預警。同時，若 LINK 質押方案推出後，社群參與意願低落，代表市場對 LINK 增值信心動搖。

• XRP (XRP)：持續追進法律及監管進度。如 SEC 訴訟案被上訴且 Ripple 落敗，或 ETF 申報久無進展，市場情緒將轉冷。另外，Ripple 季報會公布其售出 XRP 規模——若大幅增加拋售，可能超過市場吸收能力，對價格不利。

• Maker (MKR)：兩大重點：DAI 的穩定性（若 DAI 脫鉤 1 美元或流通量劇減，代表產品核心動搖）；以及盈餘池和回購的治理決策。假如治理突然暫停 MKR 回購、或收入轉向其他用途，買盤支撐將消失。同時要關注利率：全球利率急降，可能壓縮 Maker RWA 收益、導致 MKR 燒毀量下降。

• Dash (DASH)：追蹤主節點（masternode）數量。主節點若陸續關閉（數量下滑），表示持有者解鎖 DASH 準備賣，是信心減弱先行指標。此外，交易所若宣布下架（因隱私幣被一併掃蕩），流動性恐受打擊。

• Zcash (ZEC)：若 ZEC 躉價大漲，但隱私池用量不增，代表此波純投機炒作，缺乏新用戶則漲勢恐難持久。另外 ZEC 正推動網路升級（NU5 已用上 Halo，未來有望向 PoS 靠攏），若社群爭議或升級進度落後，勢必拖累動能。技術層面上，還可追蹤灰度 ZEC 信託與其他基金資金流向——若基金大幅贖回，可能表示機構獲利了結。

監測儀表板建議：讀者可簡單設置一組“韌性看板”，定期追蹤關鍵指標：

• 價格跌幅/漲幅追蹤：以 10 月 10 日基準價製表，若有單一資產遠遠落後同儕，需查明主因。
• 波動度與相關性：追蹤每檔資產 30 天實現波動度及其對 BTC 相關性。若波動度或關聯度突然飆升，可能代表該資產開始像高 Beta 幣一樣交易（韌性減弱）。
• 鏈上健康指標：如 BTC 一年以上未動供應比例（Hodl proxy，目前近歷史新高，維持高檔看多）、XMR 隱私交易數量、Maker 的鎖倉總值及 DAI 流通量等，這類異常變動往往領先價格。
• 衍生品訊號：留意 BTC、ETH 及有期貨產品的幣（如 LINK、BTC、ETH、XRP、BNB）之資金費率，若出現極端值（年化 +30% 或 –30%），通常不可持久。當這些韌性標的資金費率異常，通常離「群體反向」不遠。

持續追蹤這些指標，即可提前發現異常。舉例來說，若 Tron 鏈上活躍度突然斷崖下跌、或 MKR 回購在鏈上中斷，極可能先於市場知覺反應，有機會提前調整部位以避風險。

最終，韌性始終是動態的。這波最強勢的資產未來仍大致能抵禦風暴（基於其結構特性），但投資人務必——

（內容到此結束，如需剩餘部分請再告知！）remain vigilant. Continuous due diligence – following developer updates, governance forums, macro news – is crucial. One should especially be on alert for any loss of a key support factor (like if Binance announced stopping BNB burns or if Ethereum staking participation dropped significantly – hypothetical examples).

保持警覺。持續進行盡職調查——關注開發者更新、治理論壇、宏觀新聞——至關重要。特別要注意任何關鍵支撐因素的喪失（例如，若幣安宣布停止BNB銷毀，或以太坊質押參與度大幅下降——僅屬假設例子）。

Final thoughts

The October 2025 flash crash was an extraordinary stress test that revealed a hierarchy of crypto asset resilience. At the top were tokens buttressed by real utility, committed holders, and sound economics – the “shock absorbers” that endured the blow with comparatively minor and short-lived damage. We saw that Bitcoin’s liquidity and haven status, Tron and Monero’s loyal communities, Maker and Chainlink’s fundamental cash flows, XRP’s unique catalysts, and others’ prudent token designs collectively made the difference between a quick recovery and a prolonged drawdown.

2025年10月的閃崩是一場非同尋常的壓力測試，揭示了加密資產韌性的層級。在頂端的是那些擁有真實效用、堅定持有者與良好經濟模型的代幣——這些是充當「避震器」的存在，能以相對輕微且短暫的損害承受這波衝擊。我們看到，比特幣的流動性與避險屬性、波場與門羅的忠實社群、Maker與Chainlink的基本現金流、XRP的獨特驅動因素，以及其他項目的審慎代幣設計，這些合力造成了復甦迅速與長期下跌之間的差異。

A core insight is that structural factors – not hype – predict resilience. High staking participation, token burns or buybacks, diversified real-world usage, and even something as simple as being around and battle-tested for multiple market cycles all contributed to staying power. For instance, the fact that Maker could burn tokens using real income gave it inherent support, or that Tron’s blockchain kept humming with stablecoin transfers when trading markets seized provided a floor of demand. These are tangible factors, not just investor sentiment swings.

一個核心見解是，結構性因素——而非炒作——才是預測韌性的關鍵。高比例的質押參與、持續銷毀或回購、真實世界多元應用，甚至僅是經歷多個牛熊週期的歷練，都大大增強了生存能力。舉例來說，Maker能夠用實際收入去銷毀代幣自帶支撐力，而波場區塊鏈即使在交易市場癱瘓時仍持續進行穩定幣轉帳，也讓其需求有了底部。這些都是具體的支柱，而不僅僅是投資人情緒的起伏。

This isn’t to say these assets are invulnerable (they’re not), but when faced with a sudden vacuum of liquidity, they had anchors: be it a treasury that steps in, or users who stubbornly won’t sell, or arbitrageurs who see fundamental value. In contrast, many tokens that fared worst had little to fall back on – no revenue, no loyal user base, and often complex token inflation that amplified sell pressure. In a phrase, quality mattered.

這並不是說這些資產無懈可擊（事實並非如此），但當突然流動性消失時，它們有固定的支撐：不論是金庫資金即時介入，或是死守不賣的社群用戶，或是看到基本價值的套利者。相反地，許多表現最差的代幣幾乎無依無靠——沒有營收、沒有忠實用戶群，常常還有複雜的代幣通膨機制加重賣壓。簡言之，質量很關鍵。

For readers and crypto participants, applying these lessons means looking under the hood of projects, especially during calm times before the next storm hits. Which network has real usage? Which token’s supply is being steadily eaten away by utility or burns versus which will flood the market with unlocks? Who will still be holding this coin if it drops 50% – anyone, or will it be a ghost town of speculators?

對讀者與加密參與者來說，落實這些經驗教訓，就是真正深入檢視項目，特別是在下一場風暴來臨前的平靜期。哪個網路有實際應用？哪項代幣的供給會因效用或銷毀穩定減少，又有哪些會因解鎖潮而湧入市場？當價格腰斬50%時，誰還會持有這個幣——會剩下誰，還是全被投機客清空成鬼城？

As we move forward, the outlook has bright spots but also caution flags. On one hand, the cleansing of excess leverage and the rotation into sturdier assets could set the stage for a healthier market foundation (as some analysts said, perhaps this crash “reset the risk” and allowed true builders to shine). On the other hand, macro uncertainties like the trade war, regulatory decisions on ETFs and stablecoins, and global economic shifts will continue to inject volatility.

未來展望中雖有亮點，但也須保持警惕。一方面，去除過度槓桿，轉向更穩健資產，有望為市場奠定更健康的基礎（如部分分析師所言，這次崩盤或許「重設了風險」，讓真正有實力的建設者展現光芒）。但另一方面，貿易戰、ETF與穩定幣監管決策、全球經濟變動等宏觀不確定因素，仍將持續帶來波動。

The next key dates to watch: - Late Oct 2025 – possible SEC decisions on crypto ETFs (especially XRP’s) that could boost or dent certain coins. - Late Nov 2025 – a scheduled large token unlock for a major project (not in our top 10 but something like an Arbitrum unlock) which could test how the market absorbs new supply. - Q1 2026 – broader macro events: central bank meetings, as well as Ethereum’s next protocol upgrade (if any significant one scheduled) and Bitcoin’s approaching halving in April 2026, which historically starts being priced in months prior. These could all shift the relative appeal of assets (e.g., Bitcoin halving hype might cause BTC to outperform for a while, or Ethereum upgrade news might bolster ETH).

下一波值得關注的關鍵時點如下：

• 2025年10月底——美國證券交易委員會（SEC）有可能公佈加密ETF（特別是XRP相關）決策，這將可能大幅影響特定幣種；
• 2025年11月底——有大型專案預定進行大規模代幣解鎖（雖非本次前十資產，但例如Arbitrum的解鎖），可觀察市場吸收新增供給的能力；
• 2026年第一季——更多宏觀事件，如央行會議、以太坊是否有大型協定升級（如有重大計劃）、以及比特幣預計在2026年4月迎來下一次減半，依以往經驗，相關效應會提前數月反映於價格。這些事件都可能改變資產彼此的相對吸引力（例如，比特幣減半炒作帶來暫時跑贏其他資產，或以太坊升級消息支撐ETH表現）。

In closing, the October crash taught us that even in one of the most dramatic meltdowns on record, there were havens of relative calm and quick rebirth. It reinforces a timeless principle: in markets, quality assets with clear value propositions tend to recover. As the saying goes, when the tide went out, we saw who had been swimming with trunks on. Those with solid “trunks” (be it tangible utility or prudent economics) emerged not just decent, but in some cases stronger than before.

總結來說，十月那場崩跌讓我們見識到，即使面臨有史以來最戲劇化的崩盤之一，某些資產仍能成為相對冷靜、快速重生的避風港。這印證了一個歷久不變的原則：在市場中，有明確價值主張的高質量資產往往能率先復甦。俗話說，退潮才知道誰沒穿褲子——那些經得起考驗的「褲子」（無論是真實效用還是審慎經濟模型），最後不僅安然無恙，甚至部分還更勝從前。

For crypto participants, the homework is to identify those trunks in advance – to focus on projects with real technology and community substance, to diversify across different value drivers (store-of-value, DeFi revenue, privacy, etc.), and to remain agile. Crashes will happen again. By studying this leaderboard of resilience, one can better position to not only survive the next shock, but perhaps even capitalize on it – rotating into fundamentally sound assets when they’re temporarily on sale, and setting oneself up for the next phase, where durability and quality lead to disproportionate rewards.

對加密投資人而言，事前辨識這些「褲子」才是必修課——專注於擁有真實技術力與社群基礎的項目，在各種價值驅動上分散布局（如價值儲存、DeFi收益、隱私等），並保持彈性。市場必然還會再次劇烈波動。細讀這份韌性排行榜，能讓你更好地為下次衝擊做好準備，甚至抓住機會——當高質量資產暫時大幅折價時換股布局，為下一個周期做好準備，讓韌性與高品質帶來超額回報。