比特幣在2024與2025年間幣價大漲，超出市場預期，更突破令人難以想像的10萬美元大關。到了2025年年中，價格創下約12萬美元的新高，這距離2022年熊市谷底已翻漲約600%。這波暴漲讓比特幣成為過去兩年表現最突出的資產之一。然而在如此驚人的上升之後，投資人開始思考：牛市是否已經結束，還是比特幣仍有燃料繼續前進？
儘管期間出現波動——包括2025年10月曾短暫閃崩至10.5萬美元——但大方向仍上漲且具韌性。10～20%的拉回幅度都很快收復失土。事實上，許多市場觀察者認為現在的牛市遠未結束。從華爾街資金流向到全球經濟，多重因素顯示2025年比特幣牛市還有許多潛力。
主要金融機構的分析師正發出六位數的目標價，而鏈上數據也未見典型泡沫頂部的投機熱潮。簡言之，有強而有力的基本面支持比特幣2025年的榮景——這波牛市並未終結，而是在成熟。
新型態牛市——再見四年週期？
在加密圈傳統認知中，牛市指的是長時間的價格上漲、投資者情緒高昂，以及應用加速擴散。過去，比特幣通常每四年就會迎來爆發式行情，這與“減半”週期相符，也就是每四年新發行供給遞減。以往在2013、2017以及2021年三輪牛市中，比特幣一度飆升（單年漲幅常超過1,000%），緊接著迎來數年“加密寒冬”。這樣的規律讓“四年週期說”在市場上幾乎被視為自然法則。
然而，2024–2025年的這一輪循環正打破此模式。
儘管比特幣在2024年4月依合約進行減半（礦工獎勵由6.25降為3.125 BTC），但這次的價格走勢與過去大不相同。其中一點，減半本身並未成為行情唯一推手。分析指出，這次的減半早已被市場消化，資深投資人提前布局。不像2016年、2020年那樣，減半後的供給衝擊主導牛市，這次市場焦點迅速轉向機構資金流入、宏觀經濟等新動力。近期產業分析甚至認為，單靠減半“無法成為未來一年牛市的唯一驅動力”；吸引新投資人透過現貨比特幣ETF才是關鍵。
另一個重大差異則是宏觀環境。
過去比特幣循環都發生在低利率甚至寬鬆貨幣環境中。
但本輪牛市卻在央行打壓通膨，高利率環境下展開——對比特幣來說是前所未見。這帶來新變數：以往爆炸性、加槓桿推動的牛市，如今被更緊縮的金融條件所克制。
同時，加密市場流動性更充裕、運作更成熟，且機構參與度大幅提升，這是在四年前難以想像的。因此這波牛市可能會比過往更為持久平穩（雖然也許少了野性狂熱）。
產業各界如今紛紛向舊四年週期告別。2025年市場的Forbes分析指出：「機構資本大舉進場與高利率引發流動性壓縮……這些都證明本輪周期和以往大不相同。」比特幣如今不再只是散戶推高、定期漲後大崩，而是受到更結構性的力量左右。正如稍後細談的，ETF、政策監管及全球投資人行為等都讓比特幣行情延長至傳統減半後的一年以上。2025年餘下時間，甚至2026年，都有機會看到比特幣持續開創更延長的上升行情，創新高後再較溫和地降溫。
支撐比特幣牛市續航的10大理由
接下來我們來看看，目前比特幣牛市尚未結束的十大關鍵因素。這些從機構大量流入、到比特幣歷來最堅實基本面，全面勾勒出一波不只靠炒作的漲勢——牛市或許正值中場而非終站。
前所未見的機構參與與ETF資金流入
牛市動能未竭的明確徵兆之一，就是機構資金大量湧入比特幣——尤其是透過新推出的ETF。不同於2017年散戶主導的行情，2025年由華爾街和大型機構領軍。過去一年，從BlackRock、Fidelity到全球多家銀行，金融巨頭紛紛爭取比特幣敞口。
現貨比特幣ETF的問世為機構投資人帶來了一條合規且便利的進場通道。
數字說明一切。2025年下半年，美國現貨比特幣ETF屢創資金流入新高，每週都有數十億美元規模。10月，ETF連續8天淨買進，為比特幣基金注入約57億美元新資金。BlackRock旗下IBIT尤為積極，吸納約41億美元資金，管理比特幣超過80萬枚，佔總供給近3.8%。
這類機構大量持幣前所未見。每枚被ETF吸納的比特幣都等於流通量減少，等於有效收縮供給（並支撐價格），這是過去散戶熱潮難以望其項背的。
分析師表示ETF帶來的效應才剛開始而已。渣打銀行指出，ETF需求強勁是其看多比特幣的主因。銀行觀察到，比特幣基金在年中雖短暫受政治因素影響出現小幅流出，但隨後資金恢復大幅淨流入——顯然投資人再度透過ETF強勢進場。
渣打研究團隊更認為，現貨比特幣ETF的推動力甚至比減半還關鍵。ETF吸引了退休基金、對沖基金、家族辦公室等機構的FOMO情緒，讓比特幣湧入大量新資金。
機構擁抱也讓比特幣首次進一步獲得主流資產認可。比特幣不再只是加密基金的專屬品，主要銀行與投資機構也積極參與。
例如摩根士丹利及富國銀行等據傳已允許高資產客戶配置比特幣，甚至積極建議配置部分加密資產。這些保守機構給予背書，和過去幾年形成天壤之別。
這顯示比特幣正穩健朝主流投資組合標配前進——大資金池由旁觀轉為參與，可望持續湧入市場。只要這波機構浪潮未歇，談牛市見頂還言之過早。實際上，華爾街的加密熱似乎才剛發酵。
宏觀順風：降息與流動性
比特幣並非孤立體，整體宏觀經濟環境也越來越有利。2022–2023年各國央行大幅升息後，如今接近「轉向」關鍵時刻。許多經濟學家預期到2025年底，美聯儲與主要央行將陸續降息支撐疲弱經濟。
這種變化可能為比特幣及風險性資產帶來強大順風。
為什麼利率重要？在低利率或貨幣寬鬆環境下，金融體系流動性上升，投資人更願意追求高報酬的風險資產。比特幣過往往往類似風險偏好資產——當資金成本低廉且資金泛濫時表現最佳。2010年代與2020年代初期，近零利率促使科技股與加密貨幣齊飛；相反，2022年驟升息則使加密進入深度熊市。
目前通膨降溫、貨幣緊縮接近高點，趨勢快要逆轉。降息向來是加密牛市的燃料——正如市場指引所說，低利率為風險資產創造友善環境。
2024年市場原已開始預期貨幣政策放寬，這助推比特幣行情再起。分析師發現，隨著市場開始定價聯準會未來傾向降息，比特幣與整體加密資產已率先復甦。展望2025，拐點會更明顯。
據Euronews報導，主要央行預計2025年將啟動降息，「風險偏好情緒可望讓比特幣繼續受益」。簡單說，便宜資金與流動性重現，會吸引更多投資流入加密，延長牛市。
此外，全球經濟不確定性也讓全球央行採取更偏鴿立場。 footing, which indirectly benefits Bitcoin. Concerns about recession, geopolitical tensions, or credit stress tend to elicit supportive policy responses (like rate cuts or stimulus) that boost alternative assets. Bitcoin stands to gain not just from the fact of more liquidity, but from its emerging role as a hedge in times of macro instability (more on that in the next point). Standard Chartered’s team explicitly cited hopes of U.S. interest rate cuts as a reason they see Bitcoin potentially reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025.
由於間接的受益，這也使比特幣得到了支撐。關於經濟衰退、地緣政治緊張或信貸壓力的擔憂，通常會引發支持性的政策回應（如降息或刺激措施），進而推動替代資產上漲。比特幣受益的不僅僅是資金流動性增加，更因其作為大環境不穩定時期的避險工具崛起（這部分下文會進一步闡述）。渣打銀行團隊更明確表示，對美國降息的希望，是他們認為比特幣有機會在2025年底前漲到20萬美元的原因之一。
In their view, an accommodative Fed could both weaken the dollar and increase appetite for stores of value, creating a “perfect storm” for Bitcoin demand.
在他們看來，若美聯儲採取寬鬆立場，這不僅會削弱美元，同時也會提升避險資產的吸引力，為比特幣需求創造出「完美風暴」。
In summary, the monetary climate in 2025 is set to flip from headwind to tailwind. If the second half of the year brings even a couple of rate reductions, it could unleash another wave of liquidity into markets. Combined with Bitcoin’s strengthening narrative among institutional investors, that liquidity has a decent chance of finding its way into crypto assets.
總結來說，2025年的貨幣環境預計將從逆風轉成順風。如果下半年再出現一兩次降息，將可能為市場釋放新一波流動性。結合比特幣在機構投資人之間日益增強的敘事，這些資金非常有機會流入加密資產市場。
The prospect of an easier Fed, a weaker dollar, and more abundant capital is a solid reason to believe Bitcoin’s bull run will march on.
美聯儲態度轉鴿、美元走弱以及資本充裕，都是支撐比特幣多頭行情繼續走強的有力理由。
Bitcoin as Digital Gold in a Chaotic World
混沌世界中的「數位黃金」比特幣
Beyond short-term trading and speculation, Bitcoin’s bull case has long rested on its appeal as a store of value – “digital gold” for the modern age. In 2025, that narrative is resonating more strongly than ever amid an uncertain global backdrop.
比特幣的多頭理由，早已超越短線交易與投機，其根本吸引力，在於被視為一種現代版的「價值儲存工具」──也就是「數位黃金」。到了2025年，在全球局勢更加不確定的情況下，這種說法比以往更有號召力。
As economic and geopolitical jitters persist, a growing cohort of investors see Bitcoin as a hedge to protect wealth from market turmoil, inflation, and currency debasement. This safe-haven demand is an important pillar propping up the current bull run.
隨著經濟與地緣政治的不安持續蔓延，越來越多投資者將比特幣視為對抗市場動盪、通膨及貨幣貶值的避險工具。這股避險需求，成為現階段多頭行情的重要支撐。
Consider the parallels with gold: in late 2024 and 2025, gold prices climbed to all-time highs, reflecting investor anxiety about traditional markets and a desire for stable assets. Bitcoin benefited from a similar flight-to-safety dynamic. Standard Chartered analysts observed that as gold hit record levels, “many investors are now looking toward Bitcoin as another way to protect their money from market risks.” The idea of Bitcoin as “digital gold” – a hard asset immune to inflation and government control – “is getting stronger day by day,” they noted. Indeed, Bitcoin’s finite supply and decentralized nature make it an attractive hedge in an era of relentless money printing and geopolitical unrest.
以黃金為例：2024年底至2025年，金價一路飆上歷史新高，反映出投資者對傳統市場的焦慮，與對穩定資產的渴求。比特幣也受惠於同樣的避險潮流。渣打銀行分析師觀察到，黃金刷新高點的同時，「許多投資人開始將目光投向比特幣，視其為另一個抵禦市場風險的方式。」他們認為比特幣作為「數位黃金」——一種不受通膨與政府干預的硬資產——這個認知已「日益增強」。事實上，比特幣的有限供給與去中心化特性，讓其成為無休止印鈔和地緣衝突時代的亮眼避險資產。
Real-world events over the past year have underscored this appeal.
過去一年接連的國際事件，進一步凸顯比特幣的這項吸引力。
Periods of macro instability – whether spiking inflation, banking sector wobbles, or even international conflicts – often coincided with upticks in Bitcoin buying. For example, when war and sanctions roiled global markets, some investors turned to crypto to move money across borders or guard against local currency crashes. In inflation-stricken emerging economies,
當宏觀經濟出現動盪——如通膨急升、銀行業危機，甚至國際衝突——都往往伴隨比特幣買盤上升。例如當戰爭與制裁擾亂全球市場時，有些投資人會藉由加密貨幣將資金跨境轉移，或對抗本地貨幣崩跌。對於高通膨的新興市場，
Bitcoin adoption has steadily grown as citizens seek refuge from collapsing currencies. This grass-roots demand (from Nigeria to Argentina) feeds into the broader safe-haven narrative supporting Bitcoin’s price on the global stage.
比特幣的採用率穩步成長，因為當地人民希望逃離本國貨幣崩潰的風險。這種來自基層社會（從奈及利亞到阿根廷）的需求，強化了比特幣在全球舞台上作為「避險資產」的論述，進一步支撐了其價格。
Even in advanced economies, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedge against fiscal and political dysfunction. During the U.S. debt ceiling scare in 2023 and government shutdown threats, Bitcoin’s price showed resilience, buoyed by those hedging against potential dollar instability. As one Forbes piece noted, part of Bitcoin’s strength in this bull run comes from “the perception that it serves as a hedge against government dysfunction” and monetary irresponsibility. In 2025, that perception is translating into real capital flows. Institutional asset managers have begun framing Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier akin to gold – an asset uncorrelated to traditional financial turmoil that could preserve value in worst-case scenarios.
即使在成熟經濟體，比特幣也越來越被視為防禦財政與政治失能的避險資產。例如2023年美國上演債務上限危機與政府關門威脅時，比特幣價格展現韌性，反映出有投資人正在對沖潛在的美元風險。《Forbes》曾指出，這一輪比特幣強勢行情，部分來自「市場視其為對抗政府機能失調和貨幣失序的避險工具」的印象。到了2025年，這項認知已轉化為實質資金流入。機構資產管理人也開始將比特幣定位為類似黃金的投資組合分散工具——一種與傳統金融危機無關、能在極端情況下保值的資產。
All of this means that as long as uncertainty clouds the horizon, Bitcoin stands to gain. Its role as digital gold has lent the current rally a stickiness that previous speculative booms lacked. Investors who bought Bitcoin as an inflation or crisis hedge are arguably long-term holders less likely to sell at the first sign of volatility. This undercurrent of steady, haven-driven demand provides a firm foundation for the bull run.
這些狀況意謂著，只要未來依然不確定，比特幣就有受惠空間。其「數位黃金」的地位，讓這波漲勢比以往純靠投機炒作時更為持久。那些為了避險通膨或危機而買比特幣的人，多半都屬於長期持有者，不會輕易因波動而賣出。這種穩健、來自避險動機的需求，為多頭市場提供了堅實支撐。
So even if risk appetite ebbs and flows with the economy, Bitcoin now has a dual character: it can attract both risk-on traders during booms and risk-off capital during busts. That bodes well for its ability to sustain higher price levels continuously. In short, Bitcoin’s credibility as “digital gold” is growing just as global risks do – a recipe for ongoing bullish momentum.
因此，即使市場風險偏好隨景氣起伏，比特幣如今具備雙重身份：景氣好時吸引追風交易者，景氣差時能吸納保守資金。這讓其擁有長期維持高價的條件。簡而言之，比特幣作為「數位黃金」的可信度正隨著全球風險同步成長，就是多頭行情持續的最佳養分。
Regulatory Clarity and Political Support
法規明朗化與政治支持
Few developments have been as pivotal for this bull run as the dramatic shift in the regulatory climate around crypto. Unlike the uncertainty and crackdowns that shadowed Bitcoin in some past cycles, 2024–2025 has seen significant moves toward clearer, more crypto-friendly regulations – especially in major markets like the United States.
這一輪牛市最關鍵的轉折之一，就是加密貨幣監管氛圍的劇烈變化。與過去幾輪比特幣行情常被政策不確定性與打壓陰影籠罩不同，2024–2025年全球朝著監理更明確、態度更友善的路徑大步邁進，尤其是在美國等主要市場。
This newfound regulatory clarity has unlocked institutional participation and alleviated a key overhang that often ended previous rallies. With policymakers gradually warming to crypto, Bitcoin’s bull run has a stronger tailwind and fewer storm clouds on the horizon.
法規明朗化，使機構資金得以進場，打消過去屢屢壓垮行情的主要疑慮。隨著政策制定者逐漸樂觀看待加密產業，比特幣的牛市基礎更加穩健，看不到過去那種烏雲壓境的風險。
A watershed moment came in early 2024, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot Bitcoin ETF. This decision (after years of rejections) was a game-changer: it signaled that regulators were ready to integrate Bitcoin into mainstream finance. The approval immediately “boosted investor sentiment” and helped Bitcoin decisively break above its prior $50K–$70K range.
2024年初，一個劃時代事件發生——美國證券交易委員會（SEC）首度批准現貨比特幣ETF。這個決定（在多年拒絕後終於通過），徹底改變局勢：它代表監管當局願意讓比特幣進入主流金融體系。此舉立刻「大幅提振市場信心」，推動比特幣徹底突破舊有的5萬到7萬美元區間。
By late 2024, even U.S. politics took a crypto-friendly turn. The surprise victory of President Donald Trump – who campaigned on making America “the crypto capital of the planet” – injected further optimism. In December 2024, after pro-crypto statements and appointments by the incoming administration, Bitcoin surged past $100,000 for the first time. It was a stark contrast to 2017, when regulatory fears (like China banning exchanges) helped pop the bubble. This time, the regulatory winds are at Bitcoin’s back.
到了2024年底，美國政治環境也對加密貨幣投下好球。川普出乎預料當選總統——他主張讓美國成為「世界加密之都」——進一步提振市場樂觀情緒。2024年12月，在新任政府釋出多項挺加密言論與任命後，比特幣首度突破10萬美元。這與2017年（當時中國封殺交易所等監管恐慌導致泡沫破裂）形成鮮明對比。這一次，監管順風正全力推動比特幣。
Throughout 2025, U.S. authorities continued sending constructive signals. Congress debated legislation to provide clearer rules for crypto trading and stablecoins, and several bills gained bipartisan support.
2025年，美國官方持續釋放正面訊號。國會討論為加密交易和穩定幣設立更清楚規範的法案，且多項提案獲兩黨支持。
One much-discussed proposal – nicknamed the “Bitcoin Act” – even floated the idea of the U.S. Treasury accumulating a strategic reserve of Bitcoin over coming years. While that extreme scenario may not materialize, it shows how far the conversation has shifted. Crypto is no longer a pariah in Washington; it’s increasingly seen as an innovative sector that needs sensible oversight. Greater regulatory certainty – from tax guidelines to custody rules – has been encouraging more traditional investors to enter the space without fear of legal ambiguity.
有一份受到大量討論的提案，被稱為「比特幣法案」，甚至建議未來美國財政部應建立比特幣戰略儲備。這種極端情境或許不會真正發生，但足見時代氛圍的轉變。加密產業在華府已不再是異類，反而成為需要合理監管的創新領域。從稅務到託管規範的明確化，都積極吸引更多傳統投資人安心進場。
It’s not just the U.S. either.
不僅如此，美國以外也同步推進。
Around the world, many jurisdictions have implemented or proposed clearer crypto regulations. The European Union’s comprehensive MiCA framework (Markets in Crypto-Assets) was finalized in 2024, establishing standardized rules across EU member states. This has given companies and investors in Europe confidence to engage with crypto under well-defined guidelines. Likewise, countries from the UK to the UAE have rolled out licensing regimes for crypto service providers. The net effect is a global trend toward legitimization of Bitcoin and its peers within the financial system.
全球有許多國家地區已經實施或提出更加明確的加密貨幣規範。歐盟的MiCA框架（加密資產市場監管），於2024年最終敲定，為各會員國建立起統一的規範；這讓歐洲企業與投資人能在明確的標準下參與加密市場。英國至阿聯酋等國，也推出專門針對加密服務提供商的牌照制度。總體而言，比特幣及其同儕正逐漸被納入全球金融體系的正規化管理。
Crucially, regulatory clarity addresses one of the major causes of past boom-bust cycles: sudden government actions that spooked markets. With that risk reduced, the current bull run is on firmer footing.
更重要的是，法規明確，消除了過去牛熊循環的主因之一：政策突襲、政府嚇跑市場。這個風險一旦降低，這一輪牛市腳步明顯更加穩健。
“We will have a clearer regulatory environment [ahead] and we are seeing institutional capital come to the table in a more significant manner than we’ve ever seen,” noted Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at brokerage eToro.
eToro分析師Josh Gilbert表示：「我們即將擁有更為清晰的法規環境，現在機構資本進場規模之大前所未見。」
His point captures why regulation is reason for optimism – it’s paving the way for the big money to dive in. As long as the policy trajectory remains constructive and supportive, Bitcoin should continue to thrive. In 2025, the once adversarial relationship between crypto and regulators is thawing into something of a partnership – and that is bullish fuel we’ve never had before.
他的論點道出法規帶來樂觀展望的關鍵原因——正因有明確規範，大資金才能無後顧之憂地投入。只要政策方向維持正向與支持，加密市場就能繼續成長。2025年，過去敵對的「監管與加密產業」關係正逐漸轉為合作，這正是前所未有的利多燃料。
Scarce Supply Dynamics Post-Halving
減半後的稀缺供給動態
Bitcoin’s design is inherently scarce and deflationary, and those characteristics are becoming ever more pronounced. Every bull market so far has ultimately been underpinned by Bitcoin’s limited supply – and in 2025 the supply squeeze is intensifying. With the latest halving now in the rear-view mirror, Bitcoin’s issuance rate has dropped to its lowest in history.
比特幣設計上就是稀缺且通縮的，這些特性如今更加鮮明。每一輪多頭行情背後，最根本的支柱就是比特幣供給有限。到了2025年，這種供需失衡更加劇烈。隨著最新一輪減半已經完成，比特幣新幣發行速度降至史上最低。
Meanwhile, a large portion of existing bitcoins are being hoarded by long-term holders, further reducing effective supply. These dynamics create a classic supply-demand imbalance that can continue driving prices higher.
同時，大量現有比特幣被長期持有者鎖定，使得流通供給再次縮減。這種動態製造出典型的供不應求，足以不斷推高價格。
The April 2024 halving cut Bitcoin’s block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, slashing the pace of new coin creation. This automatic supply shock happens roughly every four years and has historically correlated with Bitcoin’s most explosive rallies (as seen in 2013, 2017, 2021). By design, halvings make Bitcoin 50% more scarce on the flow side – miners earn fewer bitcoins for the same work, which can strain those who need to sell for revenue. Over time, less new supply coming to market tends to put upward pressure on price (assuming steady or growing demand).
2024年4月減半事件，把比特幣區塊獎勵從6.25顆減至3.125顆，新幣生產速度直接腰斬。這種自動供給衝擊每四年一次，且歷史上都與比特幣最強烈的漲勢（如2013、2017、2021年）高度吻合。根據機制設計，減半使比特幣流通面上的稀缺度一口氣提高50%，挖礦者必須多花同樣的算力卻只能拿到一半比特幣，對需要變現的礦工形成壓力。長遠來看，只要需求不減、甚至增長，市場新供給減少自然會推升價格。
Importantly, Bitcoin’s fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins is coming into sight. Over 94% of all bitcoins that will ever exist have already been mined. As of mid-2025, around 19.9 million BTC are in circulation, leaving
更重要的是，比特幣2100萬顆的總量上限已逐漸接近。至今已有超過94%的比特幣已被挖出。到2025年年中，流通中的比特幣大約為1990萬顆，剩下……just a little over 1 million yet to be discovered over the next century. In practice, this means new supply is extremely limited. For comparison, gold’s supply grows about 1.5% per year from mining – Bitcoin’s current annual supply growth post-halving is under 1%. Within a few more halving cycles, Bitcoin’s inflation rate will approach zero, effectively making it one of the scarcest assets on Earth.
事實上，這表示新供應量極為有限。作為對比，黃金的供應每年約增加 1.5%（來自開採），而比特幣目前減半後的年供應增速則不到 1%。再經過幾輪減半，比特幣的通膨率將接近於零，實質上使其成為地球上最稀有的資產之一。
What does this mean for the bull run?
Simply put, any surge in demand runs into a wall of scarce supply, causing price to rise until equilibrium is found.
這對這波牛市意味著什麼？
簡單來說，任何需求激增都會碰上供應稀缺的「高牆」，導致價格一路上漲，直到達到均衡為止。
And we are indeed seeing strong demand (from institutions, retail, and even nation-states), as outlined in other points. At the same time, many of the bitcoins in existence are not even available for sale. An increasing percentage is held in long-term storage by investors with strong hands.
正如前文所述，目前我們確實看到（來自機構、散戶，甚至國家級的）強勁需求。與此同時，現存比特幣中有許多根本沒有在市場上流通。越來越多的比特幣被意志堅定的長期投資人持有並囤積起來。
For instance, large “whale” wallets have mostly been accumulating rather than distributing coins during recent market dips. Glassnode data indicates that as of Q4 2025, over 80% of circulating Bitcoin is in profit (i.e. acquired at lower prices) , and much of that supply has remained dormant despite price surging – a sign that long-term holders aren’t cashing out en masse. Every month, some coins drop out of circulation due to lost keys or holders simply choosing not to sell.
舉例來說，在最近市場回調期間，大型「鯨魚」錢包大多是在累積而非釋放比特幣。據 Glassnode 數據，截至 2025 年第四季，超過 80% 的流通比特幣都處於獲利狀態（即持有成本低於現價），而其中大部分供應即便價格飆升也仍處於休眠狀態 —— 這顯示長期持有人並未大舉兌現。每個月都有部分比特幣因為私鑰遺失或持有者選擇不賣而退出流通市場。
This thinning supply was evident during the October 2025 correction: Bitcoin’s price quickly stabilized around $105K–$110K as bargain hunters found few sellers willing to unload large quantities at lower prices.
2025年十月的回調期間，這種供應緊縮特徵也很明顯：比特幣價格很快就在 10.5–11 萬美元區間穩定下來，因為抄底買家發現，願意在低價賣出大量比特幣的賣家已非常有限。
“Bitcoin still has a hard limit of 21 million coins that can ever exist,” a Nasdaq commentary reminded during that pullback, noting that nothing had fundamentally changed about its scarcity. In other words, the bull run’s core value driver – more buyers chasing a scarce asset – remains firmly intact.
那次下跌時，納斯達克評論也提醒說：「比特幣依舊有嚴格的 2100 萬枚上限，這一點從未改變。」也就是說，這波牛市的核心驅動力——越來越多買家搶購稀缺資產——依然根基穩固。
The halving’s impact may not have been immediate fireworks, but its supply shock is quietly at work in the background. Miners, now earning half the Bitcoin they used to, have notably reduced the amount of BTC they sell onto the market.
比特幣減半雖未立刻引發巨大行情，但其供應衝擊正在背後悄然發揮作用。礦工現在挖到的比特幣只有以前的一半，在市場拋售的數量明顯下降。
Many miners are instead holding more of their mined coins, betting on higher future prices (a strategy made easier if they have access to alternate financing). In September 2025, miners’ reserves hit a multi-month high, reflecting confidence and reduced selling pressure. This miner behavior, combined with steadfast long-term investors, has created a supply squeeze that underlies the bull trend. As long as demand persists, these supply-side constraints will continue to exert upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. It’s basic economics – and it’s a key reason to believe this bull run isn’t done delivering new highs.
不少礦工現正選擇暫時持有更多新挖到的比特幣，押注未來價格將更高（如果他們能獲得替代融資，採取這種策略會更容易）。2025年9月，礦工的持幣量創下數月新高，顯示他們信心十足並且賣壓減輕。這種礦工的行為，加上堅定的長期投資者，使得比特幣市場產生了供給緊縮效應，為這波牛市奠定基礎。只要需求依舊，這些供應端的限制將持續對價格造成上行壓力。這其實就是經濟學的基本原理 —— 也是大家有理由相信這波牛市還沒走完、仍有望再創新高的關鍵。
Network Fundamentals at All-Time Highs
Bull markets come and go, but Bitcoin’s network fundamentals have been steadily climbing, hitting record after record in 2025 – a strong sign of the network’s health and long-term potential. In this cycle, price isn’t the only thing reaching all-time highs: so are Bitcoin’s hash rate, security, and usage metrics. These robust fundamentals provide a solid backbone to the bull run, suggesting it’s supported by genuine growth in the network rather than just speculative froth.
網路基本面創歷史新高
牛市總有起落，但比特幣的網路基本面卻在穩步提升，2025年再度屢創新高——這是網路健康與長期潛力的強烈信號。這一輪週期中，不只是價格創下歷史新高，比特幣的算力、安全性、用戶活躍度等各項數據同樣創下新紀錄。這些強勁的基本面為牛市提供了堅實後盾，說明這波漲勢是由網路真實成長帶動，而非僅靠投機炒作。
A standout metric is Bitcoin’s hash rate – the total computational power dedicated by miners to securing the blockchain.
其中最突出的指標就是比特幣全網算力 —— 即礦工投入來確保區塊鏈安全的總運算能力。
Throughout 2025, the hash rate has soared to unprecedented levels. In September, it peaked around 1.12 billion terahashes per second (TH/s), an all-time high. This surge means more mining machines are online than ever before, making the network more secure against attacks. It also reflects miners’ optimism: they wouldn’t be investing in expensive hardware and electricity if they expected Bitcoin’s value to plummet. In fact, such a large jump in hash power so soon after the halving caught many by surprise – historically, miner participation can dip when rewards are cut. Instead, miners have doubled down, indicating strong confidence in the future of Bitcoin.
2025 年期間，比特幣全網算力飆升至空前水準。9月，單日峰值突破 11.2 億 TH/s，創歷史新高。這意味著投入挖礦運算的設備數量創新高，整個網路的安全防護能力也更強大。這同時也反映出礦工們的樂觀情緒：如果預期未來價格下跌，他們不會繼續投資昂貴的硬體與電費。事實上，這次減半後算力如此大幅成長，連許多專家都感到意外——歷史上，挖礦獎勵減半後礦工參與度往往會下滑。但這次礦工們反而加碼投入，展現對比特幣未來的強烈信心。
This exploding hash rate led to record mining difficulty (the network’s built-in adjustment to keep blocks coming at a steady rate), which also hit an all-time high in 2025.
這波算力爆發也推動了挖礦難度創下新高（難度是網路用來保持區塊產出穩定的自動調節機制）。2025年，比特幣挖礦難度同樣創下歷史紀錄。
A high difficulty confirms that competition among miners is fierce – another signal of how much resources are being poured into Bitcoin’s security.
難度越高，代表礦工間競爭越激烈——這也代表投入比特幣網路安全的資源規模正持續擴大。
One positive side effect: a highly secure and decentralized network is more attractive to large investors and institutions concerned about robustness. Every uptick in hash rate underscores Bitcoin’s resilience and can bolster investor trust, indirectly aiding the bull run’s longevity.
一個正面的連鎖反應是：高度安全且去中心化的網路，對注重健全性的機構及大型投資人更具吸引力。算力的每一次成長都強化了比特幣的韌性，也會加深投資者的信心，間接有助於牛市更長遠的發展。
Analysts and industry experts view the hash rate milestone as a bullish omen for price as well. There’s a history of hash rate surges preceding strong price rallies, possibly because miners tend to expand operations in anticipation of (or in response to) bullish market conditions. “Hash rate surges post-halving have historically preceded price rallies. We may be entering a similar phase now,” observed Varun S., co-founder of a DeFi platform, in September. In his analysis, easing selling pressure from miners (as noted earlier) plus the right macro backdrop could mean “Bitcoin is primed for a decisive upward move” with network fundamentals leading the way.
分析師與產業專家也普遍認為，算力的新里程碑是比特幣價格看漲的前兆。過去數據顯示，算力激增經常領先於下波大漲行情，這可能因為礦工在看好市場時會提前擴大投資與營運。去中心化金融（DeFi）平台共同創辦人 Varun S. 於9月表示：「歷史上每次減半後，算力大幅飆升往往會先於價格大漲。我們現在或許正進入類似階段。」他認為，前述礦工賣壓減輕以及有利宏觀背景結合，「使得比特幣正準備在基本面帶動下迎來決定性的上漲。」
Beyond mining, other fundamentals also paint a rosy picture.
除了挖礦以外，其他基本面也十分亮眼。
The number of active Bitcoin addresses (a proxy for user engagement) has been trending near record highs, indicating a broad user base transacting on the network daily. Lightning Network usage (Bitcoin’s layer-2 for faster payments) has grown as well, improving Bitcoin’s utility for smaller transactions. Meanwhile, on-chain transaction volumes and the total value settled on Bitcoin have been enormous, at times rivalling major payment networks.
活躍比特幣錢包地址數量（可視為用戶參與度指標）持續接近歷史高點，代表大量用戶每天都在網路上進行交易。閃電網路（Layer 2 技術，用於加快小額支付速度）的使用量也在增長，有效提升比特幣處理小額交易的實用性。同時，比特幣主鏈的交易量與結算總價值規模驚人，偶爾甚至與大型支付網路匹敵。
All these data points boil down to one thing: Bitcoin’s network is stronger and more widely used than ever.
總結而言，所有這些數據都說明一件事——比特幣網路比以往任何時候都更強大、更被廣泛使用。
Market Liquidity and Maturity
Another reason this bull run appears poised to endure is the overall maturation of the crypto market and vastly improved liquidity conditions compared to previous cycles. Simply put, Bitcoin’s market is deeper, more efficient, and less fragile than in the past. This maturity has translated into a bull run that, while spectacular, is also somewhat more measured – lacking some of the wild excesses that signaled the end of prior manias.
市場流動性與成熟度
這波牛市之所以有望持續，另一大原因是加密貨幣市場整體日益成熟，市場流動性也遠優於以往週期。簡單來說，如今比特幣市場「更深」、「更有效率」、也「更穩健」——這次牛市雖然同樣驚人，但卻顯得較為理性、缺乏過往泡沫頂峰時的瘋狂與失控。
The upshot is a rally that could extend longer and handle large inflows or outflows without imploding.
這就意味著，這波行情有望延續得更長久，而且可以消化更大規模資金的進出，而不致於瞬間崩潰。
One major change is the entry of professional market-makers and institutional trading firms, which has smoothed out price volatility. Liquidity on exchanges has increased significantly.
如今，專業做市商和機構交易公司大舉進場，大幅降低了市場波動。各大交易所的流動性顯著提升。
For instance, in April 2024 around the time of the halving, Bitcoin’s aggregated market depth (a measure of how much could be bought or sold with minimal price impact) jumped from roughly $324 million to $420 million within days.
例如，2024年4月減半前後，比特幣市場的綜合深度（衡量市場在不劇烈影響價格下可成交的金額）短短幾天就從約3.24億美元躍升至4.2億美元。
This indicated substantially stronger liquidity, meaning the order books could absorb bigger trades without dramatic swings. By late 2025, global Bitcoin liquidity is near all-time highs, reflecting both the influx of institutional participants and the growth of derivative markets that help manage volatility.
這顯示市場流動性明顯加強，訂單簿能消化更大的交易規模而不會劇烈波動。到2025年底，比特幣全球流動性已接近歷史高點，這反映了機構資金的湧入及衍生品市場的成長，有助於控制價格波動。
This improved liquidity reduces the likelihood of flash crashes or sudden squeezes that used to plague crypto. In past cycles, thin liquidity often meant that when sentiment turned, prices could free-fall 50%+ in days as panic met empty order books. Now, with robust market depth and billions in volume trading daily, declines tend to be more orderly. Case in point: the October 2025 flash crash that briefly touched $105K was triggered by a wave of liquidations in altcoin markets, but Bitcoin rebounded swiftly within hours as buyers stepped in.
這種流動性提升，大幅降低了過去常發生的閃崩或短線擠壓。在以前的周期，薄弱的流動性常讓市場情緒轉壞時，價格短天期就能暴跌超過 50%，因為恐慌賣壓遇上空蕩蕩的訂單簿。但現在有深厚的市場深度，每天交易量以十億計，下跌時走勢相對有序。以 2025 年 10 月閃崩為例，當時有一波山寨幣斷頭引發比特幣短暫跌破 10.5 萬美元，但在買方很快進場下，數小時內就強勢反彈。
The presence of big, patient capital on the bid side is a new phenomenon that has kept Bitcoin’s uptrend much more intact. Stronger liquidity is crucial to supporting a sustained rise in Bitcoin’s price over the coming months, as blockchain data firm Kaiko noted – it boosts confidence and tamps down extreme volatility.
過去不曾見到這麼多「沉穩耐心」的大資金掛單買入，正是這一新現象讓比特幣多頭趨勢維持強勁。區塊鏈數據公司 Kaiko 也指出，流動性增強對於接下來比特幣價格持續上漲至關重要——不但能提升信心，也大大減少極端波動。
The market structure is also more mature. There are now regulated futures, options, and exchange-traded products that allow for hedging and arbitrage, which helps keep prices more stable and aligned across venues.
市場結構方面也比過去成熟得多。如今已有多種受監管的期貨、選擇權和交易型商品，幫助投資人避險及套利，有助於價格在不同平台間保持更穩定、更一致。
The availability of these instruments means investors can stay in the market with less fear, knowing they have tools to manage risk. It also means fewer forced sellers during downturns, since traders can short or use options to mitigate losses instead of panic-selling holdings.
這些槓桿與避險工具的普及，讓投資人更有信心長期參與市場，因為風險可控。不景氣時，也會減少被迫斬倉的賣盤壓力，因為交易者可利用做空與選擇權等手段來對沖虧損，而不用恐慌性砍倉。
Another sign of maturity: Less leverage and speculative frenzy (so far). While crypto certainly still has leverage, the 2025 bull run has (to date) seen fewer of the retail margin blowouts that characterized 2021. Many of the most excessive speculative actors were flushed out in the 2022 bear market. What’s left is a market with a larger share of long-term and institutional holders, who are more disciplined than the meme-coin day traders of yesteryear.
另一個市場走向成熟的跡象，就是這輪牛市（截至目前）槓桿與投機狂熱明顯減弱。雖然加密領域依然有槓桿，但 2025 年以來，散戶高槓桿爆倉的現象遠低於 2021 年的牛市泡沫頂。2022 年的熊市已淘汰掉大量過度投機的玩家，目前市場的主力更多是長線及機構持有者，他們紀律遠勝過過去迷因幣當沖族。
The fact that Bitcoin climbed above $100K with comparatively muted retail hype suggests the rally has been driven by steady accumulation rather than a fast-burning bubble.
比特幣突破 10 萬美元的過程中，少了往昔狂熱散戶喧囂，顯示這輪漲勢是穩健的資金長期累積推動，而非短暫泡沫的烈焰。
One analysis tracking 30 different bull market top indicators found that 0 out of 30 had been triggered even after Bitcoin’s new highs, implying the kind of euphoric peak conditions hadn’t appeared yet. In a very real sense, the market is behaving more like a “grown-up” asset class now.
某份追蹤 30 項牛市頂部訊號的研究發現，即便比特幣已創新高，30 項指標中竟然沒有一項被觸發，說明那種人人瘋狂的頂峰情緒根本還沒出現。實際上，現在的市場行為模式已更像「成熟資產」的典範。
All this bodes well for the rally’s longevity. A mature market can sustain higher prices without collapsing under its own weight, as there are always buyers and sellers keeping things in balance. As a result, we may see a more gradual cresting of this bull run rather than a sudden pop. The enhanced liquidity and market infrastructure also make it easier for large new entrants to come in – another reason the rally could continue as fresh capital finds access. Bitcoin’s journey from a fringe asset to a globally traded macro asset is well underway, and the maturity gained in that process is helping prolong and stabilize its bull market.
參與者持續進場——這是漲勢能延續的另一大原因，因為新資金持續湧入。比特幣從邊緣資產成長為全球交易的宏觀資產之旅正在積極展開，而這一過程中所帶來的成熟度，有助於延長並穩定這一輪牛市。
Mainstream Corporate and Wall Street Embrace
No longer is Bitcoin the domain of cypherpunks and hobbyist traders alone – it has firmly entered the mainstream of finance and business.
比特幣已不再只是密碼朋克及業餘交易者的專利——它已經堅實地進入了金融與企業的主流領域。
This growing embrace by major companies, financial institutions, and even governments is a strong vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s future. In 2025, we’ve seen Fortune 500 CEOs touting blockchain strategies, blue-chip companies adding crypto offerings, and Wall Street titans publicly aligning with Bitcoin. Such widespread adoption and endorsement provide fundamental support for the bull run, as they broaden the base of investors and uses for Bitcoin.
大型企業、金融機構甚至政府不斷擁抱比特幣，對其未來展現強大的信心。2025年，全球500強企業的執行長開始提倡區塊鏈策略，藍籌公司紛紛增加加密貨幣產品，華爾街巨頭也公開表態支持比特幣。如此廣泛的採納和背書，從根本上支持了這波多頭行情，並且拓寬了比特幣的投資人與應用基礎。
One clear indicator is the surge of crypto-related public listings and corporate actions.
一個明顯的指標就是加密貨幣相關上市案與企業行動激增。
After years of wariness, U.S. crypto companies are now rushing to go public, encouraged by a more welcoming policy climate.
經過多年的觀望，美國加密貨幣公司如今在更寬鬆有利的政策環境中，爭相申請上市。
In mid-2025, the crypto exchange Bullish raised over $1 billion in a U.S. IPO. Circle, the major stablecoin issuer, had a blockbuster stock market debut that doubled its valuation to $18 billion.
2025年中，加密貨幣交易所Bullish於美國IPO募得超過10億美元。主要穩定幣發行商Circle在首次上市時表現亮眼，市值一舉翻倍至180億美元。
These high-profile listings underscore how far the industry has come since the dark days of 2022’s bear market. Analysts note that rising mainstream adoption and deep-pocketed backers are “reshaping the sector’s fundraising landscape” and boosting demand for crypto equities. In essence, cryptocurrency businesses themselves are now seen as legitimate and lucrative plays on Wall Street.
這些備受矚目的上市案凸顯了這個產業自2022年熊市低谷至今的巨大進步。分析師指出，主流採納度上升及資本雄厚的投資者正“重塑產業的募資格局”，並提升加密貨幣股票的需求。事實上，加密相關企業本身如今已被華爾街認為是合法且具吸引力的投資標的。
Traditional tech and finance companies are also diving in. Payment giants like PayPal and Visa have rolled out crypto features (such as enabling Bitcoin buying or settling transactions in stablecoins), seamlessly blending crypto with everyday finance. Multiple banks, from Goldman Sachs to regional banks, launched crypto custody or trading services for their clients in 2024–2025.
傳統科技及金融企業也積極投入。像PayPal與Visa等支付巨頭已推出加密貨幣功能（如開放比特幣買賣或以穩定幣結算交易），讓加密貨幣和日常金融無縫結合。2024至2025年間，從高盛到地區型銀行等，都為客戶推出了加密貨幣託管或交易服務。
Mastercard began supporting certain cryptocurrencies on its network, and Tesla – which famously bought $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 – has held onto its stash and hinted it may start accepting crypto payments again in the future. Even fast food and retail brands hopped on minor crypto promotions, reflecting a cultural acceptance that wasn’t there in prior years.
Mastercard開始支援部分加密貨幣在其網路上的交易，而特斯拉——2021年曾大手筆購買15億美元比特幣——至今仍持有這批資產，並暗示未來可能重新接受加密支付。連速食與零售品牌都加入小型加密促銷活動，反映出過去所未有的文化認同感。
Perhaps most notably, the attitudes of investing elites have flipped. Not long ago, many famous investors dismissed Bitcoin as worthless or a scam. Now, several of those skeptics have either warmed up or at least conceded crypto is here to stay. Legendary value investor Bill Miller allocated a big chunk of his fund to Bitcoin, and hedge fund mogul Paul Tudor Jones likened owning Bitcoin to owning early tech stocks.
或許最值得注意的是，投資菁英圈對比特幣的態度已徹底翻轉。不久前，許多知名投資人還將比特幣斥為毫無價值或騙局，如今這些懷疑論者有些已經轉向支持，或至少承認加密貨幣將長存。傳奇價值投資人Bill Miller將其基金很大一部分配置到比特幣；對沖基金大亨Paul Tudor Jones更將持有比特幣比喻為早期持有科技股。
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock (the world’s largest asset manager), who once called Bitcoin an “index of money laundering,” now speaks of it more favorably; under his leadership BlackRock not only launched a Bitcoin trust but also advocated for its clients’ exposure to crypto as a potential “digital asset of the future.”
全球最大資產管理公司貝萊德（BlackRock）執行長Larry Fink，過去曾稱比特幣是“洗錢指數”，如今則改口積極正面談論。在他的帶領下，貝萊德不僅推出比特幣信託，還鼓勵客戶將加密貨幣納入投資組合，視其為潛在的“未來數位資產”。
When the very institutions that Bitcoin aimed to disrupt begin embracing it, you know the paradigm has shifted.
當比特幣原本試圖顛覆的機構，反而開始擁抱比特幣時，你就知道時代真的變了。
This institutional stamp of approval and integration into corporate America significantly de-risks Bitcoin in the eyes of investors. It’s easier to hold an asset when you see household names and conservative funds holding it too. The involvement of companies also extends Bitcoin’s reach to their customer bases – for example, millions of PayPal and Cash App users have been introduced to Bitcoin through those platforms.
機構背書與企業主流化，讓比特幣在投資人眼中大幅降低風險。當你發現連知名企業與保守基金都持有比特幣時，要持有這項資產就容易許多。而企業的參與，也讓比特幣得以觸及其客戶群——舉例來說，數百萬PayPal與Cash App的用戶已藉由這些平台首次接觸比特幣。
Meanwhile, corporate treasuries dabbling in Bitcoin (following the pioneering example of MicroStrategy, which by 2025 amassed well over 150,000 BTC) add another layer of demand beyond just speculative trading.
同時，公司財庫持有比特幣（如MicroStrategy的先鋒行動，2025年前累積超過15萬枚比特幣）也為比特幣帶來了除投機交易之外的新需求層面。
Bullish Analyst Predictions and Investor Sentiment
The mood in the market can often become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Right now, investor sentiment around Bitcoin remains largely bullish, not euphoric. Many respected analysts and institutions are publicly projecting significantly higher prices in the coming years – and such predictions both reflect and reinforce confidence in the bull run.
市場情緒往往會自行實現預言。現階段，圍繞比特幣的投資人情緒大致樂觀，但未達狂熱。許多知名分析師與機構公開預測未來幾年比特幣價格將大幅上升——這些預測既反映也加強了對這波多頭行情的信心。
When conservative banks start talking about six-figure Bitcoin targets, it lends credibility to the rally and can draw in even more buyers who don’t want to miss the next leg up.
當連保守的銀行都開始談論比特幣將突破六位數時，不僅提升這波行情的可信度，也會吸引更多不想錯過行情的買家進場。
Across the board, price forecasts for Bitcoin in 2025–2026 have been revised upward. A survey of major analysts by CoinGecko highlights that predictions range from roughly $145,000 on the low end to over $1,000,000 on the high end, with a consensus clustering in the $180K–$250K range for 2025.
普遍來說，2025–2026年比特幣價格預測皆向上修正。根據CoinGecko對主要分析師的調查，市場預測從保守的14.5萬美元到上看百萬美元不等，2025共識集中在18萬至25萬美元區間。
These are figures that would have sounded fantastical a few years ago – now they are discussed as reasonable outlooks by serious firms. For example, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee has been vocal about a $200K+ target, even suggesting Bitcoin could reach about $250,000 in 2025 under bullish conditions. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered, the multinational bank, made headlines by predicting Bitcoin will hit $100,000 and beyond; more recently, they doubled down with an updated call that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
這些數字在幾年前聽起來還像幻想——如今卻已成為嚴肅研究機構的合理預期。例如，Fundstrat Global Advisors的Tom Lee公開喊出超過20萬美元的目標，甚至認為若多頭條件充分2025年比特幣有望達到25萬美元。跨國銀行渣打（Standard Chartered）曾大膽預測比特幣將衝破10萬美元，近期更進一步預估到2025年底比特幣可望挑戰20萬美元。
Such lofty targets from a well-known bank would have been unheard of last cycle.
像這樣知名銀行開出的高價目標，在上一個周期根本難以想像。
These projections are not made in a vacuum – they’re usually tied to concrete catalysts like ETF inflows, halvings, or macro trends (many of which we’ve covered in earlier points). They serve to communicate a narrative that the best may be yet to come. When investors hear that “late 2025 could be the cycle peak” or that “Bitcoin might approach quarter-million dollars,” it can influence their strategy.
這些預測並非毫無根據，通常都與具體的催化劑有關，例如ETF資金流入、減半事件或宏觀經濟趨勢（許多前文已有述及）。這些預測傳遞的訊息是：最精彩的部分可能還沒到來。當投資人聽到“2025年底可能是本輪高點”或“比特幣有望挑戰25萬美元”，自然會影響他們的操作策略。
Rather than rushing to take profits and exit, many are inclined to hold or even add to positions, keeping the upward momentum intact. The psychology shifts from fear of a top to fear of missing out on further gains.
不少人因此傾向於持有甚至加碼，維持上升動能。投資心理也從擔心見頂轉為害怕錯過後面的漲幅（FOMO心態）。
We can see this optimistic sentiment also in market data like futures spreads and fund flows. Bitcoin futures on institutions-friendly exchanges have often been in contango (prices for future delivery higher than spot), indicating traders expect higher prices ahead. Capital continues to pour into crypto investment funds; even after short-term price dips, there haven’t been massive outflows, suggesting that investors view dips as buying opportunities rather than end-of-cycle exits.
這種樂觀情緒同樣反映在市場數據，如期貨價差和資金流向。比特幣期貨在偏好機構的交易所經常出現正價差（期貨價格高於現貨），顯示交易者預期將來價格還會更高。資金持續流入加密基金，即使短線價格回落，也未出現大量贖回，說明投資人把回檔視為買點，而不是行情結束。
Even traditionally cautious voices have come around to a cautiously bullish stance.
連一向謹慎的市場意見也變得謹慎看多。
Several Wall Street strategists known for sober analysis have acknowledged that Bitcoin’s upside risks remain compelling.
多位以冷靜著稱的華爾街策略師也承認，比特幣的上行潛力依舊具有吸引力。
For instance, research from Citibank and Goldman Sachs in 2025 has mentioned Bitcoin’s potential to keep climbing as part of the broader trend of “digitalization of money,” albeit with volatility. When the establishment starts framing Bitcoin as a legitimate macro asset class (comparing its market cycles to commodities or tech stocks), it anchors expectations that this rally has more room rather than being some aberration due to end.
以2025年花旗與高盛的研究為例，他們已把比特幣視為“貨幣數位化”大趨勢的一環，儘管仍有波動，但長線潛力被肯定。當主流機構開始將比特幣定位為正規的宏觀資產類別（與商品、科技股市場周期相比擬），也就預示著這波行情仍有延續空間，而非曇花一現。
Another gauge of sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, has mostly stayed in “Greed” territory during 2025 but not spiked to extreme levels for prolonged periods.
另一項情緒指標——加密貨幣貪婪與恐懼指數，在2025年大多維持在“貪婪”區，但未長期異常飆高。
This implies positive sentiment without the runaway mania that often precedes a sharp reversal. In practice, the bull run has been underpinned by a sense of rational optimism: investors are bullish for identifiable reasons, not just blind exuberance.
這表示投資情緒偏多，但尚未出現大漲前常見的瘋狂。實際上，本輪牛市的動能更多建立在有根據的樂觀上：投資人看好是有理由的，而不是盲目激情。
Of course, sentiment can change, and overoptimistic forecasts don’t guarantee outcome. But in a bull market, bullish sentiment itself can be fuel – it encourages holding over selling, and entices new participants to join. As long as influential market players keep calling for higher prices and those calls seem justified by real factors, it creates a feedback loop supporting the uptrend. We are witnessing that in 2025. There is a broad feeling that the peak of this cycle is still ahead of us, not behind. Until that collective mindset shifts to irrational giddiness or complacency, the bull run likely has room to run.
當然，情緒能變、過度樂觀預測亦不保證實現。但在牛市中，樂觀本身就是助燃劑——鼓勵持有不賣，並吸引新參與者進場。只要重量級市場人士持續呼喊更高價，且這些預測有實質原因支持，就會形成正向回饋，助推行情。這正是2025年所見：普遍認為這輪牛市高點還在前方，還沒來到。只要市場集體心態尚未完全變為非理性狂熱或自滿，牛市就仍有空間可走。
Room to Run: No Retail Mania (Yet)
Finally, one of the most intriguing reasons to believe the bull run isn’t over is what hasn’t happened yet: we have not seen the kind of retail investor frenzy that marked the final blow-off phases of previous cycles. Despite Bitcoin pushing into six-figure price territory, the wider public’s engagement – as measured by things like Google search trends, social media buzz, and new user onboarding – has remained surprisingly subdued compared to the peaks of 2017 or 2021. This suggests that the proverbial “mania phase” of the bull market might still lie ahead, providing additional fuel when/if retail FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) truly kicks in.
最後，最耐人尋味的一點，是漲勢未盡的“缺席現象”：我們仍未看到過往週期末端那種零售散戶瘋狂的景象。儘管比特幣已衝上六位數，但從Google搜尋趨勢、社群熱度、新用戶註冊數等指標來看，大眾參與度明顯不及2017或2021年高峰。這代表經典“狂熱期”很可能尚未來臨，等到散戶FOMO（害怕錯過）真的點燃時，牛市還有更多動能可釋放。
Some data is telling.
部分數據非常有指標意義。
When Bitcoin hit a then-record ~$119,000 in July 2025, Google searches for “Bitcoin” were well below their all-time high levels.
2025年7月，比特幣創下當時新高約11.9萬美元時，“Bitcoin”在Google的搜尋量竟遠低於歷史高點。
According to Google Trends, search interest was only scoring around 24 out of 100 globally at that time – nowhere near the 100/100 frenzy seen in May 2021’s crypto boom.
根據Google Trends，該時期“比特幣”全球搜尋熱度僅約24/100——遠不及2021年5月加密熱潮的滿分100分。
Even with a brief spike in early July as Bitcoin made headlines, the search index only reached 88 before cooling off again.
即便7月初比特幣頻登新聞，搜尋指數也只一度衝到88，隨後便降溫。
By mid-July, with Bitcoin above $110K, search interest slid back to moderate levels (around 55 on Google’s scale). In short, mainstreet curiosity has lagged far behind Bitcoin’s price ascent. Many average people either aren’t aware of Bitcoin’s new heights or aren’t chasing it with the same fervor as before.
7月中比特幣站上11萬美元，搜尋熱度卻回落到中等水平（Google指標約55分）。總之，大眾好奇心遠落後於價格表現，許多一般民眾要嘛沒意識到比特幣又創新高，要嘛不像過去那樣亢奮追逐。
This is a stark contrast to the end of 2017 or late 2021, when Bitcoin’s every move dominated mainstream news and cocktail party chatter.
這與2017年或2021年底高點時形成鮮明對比，當時比特幣的一舉一動都是主流新聞和聚會聊天的主題。
Back then, crypto mania was evident: Coinbase became
當時，加密瘋潮一目瞭然：Coinbase成為the #1 app on the Apple store, everyone from Uber drivers to grandparents were asking how to buy Bitcoin or shill altcoins, and Google searches rocketed off the charts. Those were classic signs of a market top – when the last marginal buyers (the general public) flood in, often right before a crash. In 2025, we simply haven’t reached that point yet. If anything, skepticism among the public lingers from the 2022 crash, and many retail investors remain tentative or underexposed to crypto.
蘋果商店下載排行榜第一的應用程式，從 Uber 司機到阿公阿嬤都在問怎麼買比特幣或推薦山寨幣，Google 搜尋量也飆升到新高。這些都是經典的市場頂部訊號——當最後一波邊際買家（普羅大眾）湧入時，往往就快要崩盤了。到了 2025 年，我們其實還沒到那個階段。事實上，許多大眾對 2022 年崩盤的懷疑態度還在延續，零售投資人多半仍然觀望或只輕度參與加密貨幣市場。
Market observers have indeed pointed out that the current rally appears to be “institutionally grounded” and less hype-driven, with capital inflows led by professionals rather than a viral retail surge. Paradoxically, this more muted public enthusiasm may be a bullish indicator: it implies there’s a large pool of potential buyers still on the sidelines. Should Bitcoin continue rising or even just stabilize at a high plateau, it could eventually draw in a second wave of retail participation (as the fear of missing out mounts).
市場觀察家確實指出，這次反彈看起來是由機構投資主導、而非炒作帶動，資金流入以專業人士為主，而不是群眾一窩蜂進場。矛盾的是，這種相對低調的大眾熱情，反而可能是看漲指標：這代表有大批潛在買家還在場邊觀望。如果比特幣繼續上漲，或者就算只是高檔橫盤，也有機會吸引第二波零售投資者參與（隨著 FOMO——害怕錯過的心理日益升溫）。
That influx could propel an “overshoot” in prices, characteristic of late-cycle melt-ups – but that would also mark the true peak. The key point is, we don’t appear to be there yet.
這波資金湧入可能導致價格「超漲」，這是牛市尾聲「融化式飆高」的特徵——但那同時也將標誌真正的頂部。重點是，現階段我們似乎還沒到那裡。
One anecdotal metric: crypto exchange sign-ups and activity among first-time users have grown, but not explosively. Major exchanges report steady new account growth in 2025, but nothing like the overwhelm of verification backlogs witnessed in past frenzies. Social media mentions of Bitcoin, while rising, haven’t hit the fever pitch of previous tops. Even meme-coin mania, a hallmark of retail speculation, has been relatively constrained this cycle compared to the Dogecoin/Shiba Inu crazes of 2021. All this indicates that retail euphoria remains on a low boil.
看個別指標，目前加密貨幣交易所的新註冊用戶與新手活動有增加，但還不到爆炸性的程度。主要交易所回報 2025 年新開戶數穩健成長，但遠不及過去牛市瘋狂時出現的審核大塞車。社群媒體上關於比特幣的討論雖有上升，但還沒到過去頂部時的瘋狂。連代表散戶炒作熱潮的迷因幣瘋狂，本輪也遠不如 2021 年的狗狗幣/柴犬幣熱潮。這一切顯示，散戶的瘋狂情緒仍然只是小火慢煮。
Of course, it’s possible that this cycle will be more institution-heavy and never see a retail spike of the same magnitude. Some experts argue that traditional “altseason” and retail blow-offs may be dampened by the new structure of the market (as we’ll discuss in the next section). However, given human nature, it’s hard to imagine a bull run ending without some broad public excitement.
當然，也有可能這一輪更多是機構主導，從未出現過往那種大規模的散戶暴增。有專家認為，傳統的「山寨季」和散戶轟動，可能受到市場新結構抑制（我們將在下個段落討論）。然而，根據人性，要牛市在沒有大規模普羅大眾參與下結束，確實很難想像。
As one crypto observer quipped: “Where’s the retail frenzy?” – the fact that we’re asking that at $100K+ means the top is likely still ahead. Until headlines of Bitcoin minting millionaires dominate pop culture and everyday folks start trading en masse, the market probably hasn’t hit the kind of exuberant climax that precedes a bear turn.
正如一位加密觀察家半開玩笑地說：「散戶的瘋狂呢？」——當我們在比特幣已經破 10 萬美元時還在問這個問題，這意味著頂部大概還沒到。在「比特幣致富百萬富翁」佔滿流行新聞、一般民眾也大規模參與交易前，市場應該還沒真的進入牛轉熊之前熱情泛濫的高潮狀態。
In summary, the relative lack of mania so far is oddly comforting for bulls. It implies that Bitcoin’s price has been driven by more stable hands and could potentially climb much higher once the wider public fully joins the party. If and when that late-stage FOMO wave arrives, it might mark the final leg of the bull run – but until then, Bitcoin’s ascent may continue in a more measured fashion. The “wall of worry” in this cycle (with skeptics and sidelined investors still in plenty) is actually healthy, providing room for the rally to run further before irrational exuberance truly takes hold.
總結來說，目前還沒出現那種群眾狂熱，對多頭來說反而算是個安慰。表示比特幣的價格主要由更穩定的主力推動，未來如果大眾全面入場，還可能繼續上漲。如若最終那波 FOMO 巨浪到來，也許就是最後一段牛市，但在這之前，比特幣或許還能相對穩健地慢慢漲。這一輪的「擔憂之牆」（還有大批懷疑論者或場邊觀望者）其實有助於行情持續，讓牛市有更多空間可跑，尚未進入完全非理性亢奮。
Altcoins and the Prospect of Altseason
山寨幣與「山寨季」的展望
What does an extended Bitcoin bull run mean for the rest of the crypto market – the thousands of altcoins that together account for a large share of crypto wealth? Historically, major Bitcoin rallies have often been followed (or accompanied) by periods where alternative cryptocurrencies outperform, a phenomenon known as “altseason.”
持續走強的比特幣牛市，對其餘的加密貨幣市場——那幾千檔共同佔據大量加密財富的山寨幣們——意味著什麼？傳統上，每當比特幣經歷大行情，都常緊接（或伴隨）出現山寨幣表現超越的時期，這種現象就叫做「山寨季（altseason）」。
In past cycles, once Bitcoin hit a certain stride or plateau, investors rotated profits into riskier small-cap coins, leading to explosive altcoin surges. However, in 2025 the script has not fully played out in the usual way, at least not yet. Bitcoin’s dominance (its share of total crypto market value) has remained elevated, and many altcoins have lagged behind the flagship crypto’s gains.
在過去幾輪週期裡，比特幣一旦進入某種加速或高檔盤整階段，投資人就會把利潤流向更高風險的小型幣種，導致山寨幣爆發性大漲。然而，到了 2025 年，目前這齣戲碼還沒真正重演。比特幣的主導率（在整體加密市值的佔比）持續高漲，很多山寨幣的漲幅遠遠落後於這位旗艦加密幣。
This raises the question: Is altseason delayed – or perhaps fundamentally different – this time around?
這引發一個問題：這次的「山寨季」只是延後發生，還是形態已經根本不同了？
So far, Bitcoin’s market dominance has hovered around multi-year highs, roughly 55–60% of total crypto market cap. That is a notable shift from late stages of prior bull markets, where Bitcoin dominance typically fell sharply as capital flooded into “the next big thing” tokens.
到目前為止，比特幣的市占率大約維持在 55–60% 的多年新高水平。這與前幾次牛市後段的狀況明顯不同——過往到末期時，比特幣市占往往劇烈下滑，資金大量流入各類「下一個熱門」的新幣。
For instance, in the 2017 blow-off, Bitcoin’s dominance dropped under 40% as Ethereum and a host of ICO-fueled coins went parabolic. In 2021’s spring frenzy, a similar pattern saw Bitcoin temporarily lose dominance to a frenzy of DeFi, NFT, and meme coins. But in 2025, Bitcoin has so far strengthened its dominance as its price climbed. One analysis attributed this to the impact of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which triggered a significant supply shock and drew in heavy institutional money primarily into Bitcoin itself.
就像 2017 年牛市頂峰時，比特幣市佔率跌破 40%，以太坊和一堆 ICO 熱潮的幣種瘋狂暴漲。2021 年春季狂潮也發生過類似情形，比特幣市佔暫時被 DeFi、NFT 與迷因幣搶去。但 2025 年目前為止，比特幣反而隨著價格攀升而市佔更強。某些分析認為，主因在於比特幣現貨 ETF 出現，帶來重大供需衝擊，大量機構資金主要湧入比特幣本身。
Forbes reported that these ETFs have “extended Bitcoin’s dominance” in a way not seen before, noting that when BTC’s price is strong and stable, it tends to cause altcoins to sell off rather than rally. In other words, Bitcoin has been sucking the oxygen from the room, as large investors stick with the crypto blue-chip over speculative alternatives.
Forbes 報導這些 ETF 以「前所未見的方式延長了比特幣的主導地位」，指出當 BTC 價格強勢且穩定時，山寨幣往往被拋售而非共榮上漲。換言之，比特幣彷彿把場上的氧氣都吸走了，大型資金寧可持有藍籌幣而不是投機小幣。
Another factor is the institutional preference for quality. Many of the big players entering crypto now are less interested in chasing tiny altcoins and more focused on assets with proven longevity (Bitcoin, Ethereum) or on diversified baskets.
另一個因素是機構投資人偏好高品質資產。目前進入加密市場的大戶，比過去少了許多追逐小幣熱潮的動力，反而聚焦於生命週期久的資產（如比特幣、以太坊）或多元化的籃子組合。
A Bloomberg ETF analyst, James Seyffart, argued that what we’re seeing in 2025 is a form of altseason – but it’s manifesting via investments in crypto-related companies and broad index products rather than wild pumps of individual tokens.
彭博 ETF 分析師 James Seyffart 認為，2025 年目前看到的某種「山寨季」，其實是表現在加密相關公司與大盤指數型商品上的投資， 而不是單一幣種的瘋狂暴衝。
He observed that some digital asset companies (so-called “treasury” firms holding crypto on their balance sheets) have outperformed, and that forthcoming ETFs for certain altcoins might not spark the same retail frenzy as past cycles. Essentially, institutionalization may be dampening the traditional boom-bust in smaller coins. With Wall Street in the game, money is flowing into regulated vehicles and larger-cap coins, and less so into random micro-cap projects.
他指出，有些數位資產公司（這些「金庫型」公司大量持有加密貨幣）表現非常突出，而即將推出的部份山寨幣 ETF，也可能激不起過去那種零售炒作熱潮。歸根究柢，機構化程度加深，讓小型幣過去那種瘋狂暴漲暴跌受到壓抑。隨著華爾街進駐，資金傾向流入合規的金融商品與大型幣，而不是隨機的小型幣計畫。
That said, it may be premature to write off altseason entirely.
話雖如此，也還不能太早宣判「山寨季」完全不會來。
There are signs that if Bitcoin continues to rise or even stabilizes at a high level, investor attention could pivot to other parts of the crypto universe in search of higher returns. Typically, after Bitcoin has a big run and begins to consolidate, altcoins take center stage as traders rotate into “the next opportunities.”
有跡象顯示，如果比特幣繼續上漲或至少高檔盤整，投資人注意力很可能為追求更高報酬而轉向其他加密領域。通常，比特幣經歷一波大漲、逐步進入盤整階段之後，山寨幣就會開始接棒，投機者轉向尋找「下一個機會」。
We’ve started to see glimpses of that: for example, when Bitcoin stalled around the $110K–$120K range, some major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP experienced upticks on speculation of their own catalysts (ETH finally got its ETF approvals, Solana saw ecosystem growth, etc.). Market analysts are “keenly observing a potential shift towards high-growth altcoins” now that Bitcoin profits have accrued, with contenders like Avalanche, Solana, and others being highlighted for their strong fundamentals and upside potential.
這種情況已有些許徵兆：例如，比特幣盤整在 11–12 萬美元區間時，包括以太坊、Solana、XRP 等大型山寨幣開始因為各自利多消息（ETH 終於核准 ETF、Solana 生態系成長等）出現上漲。隨著比特幣獲利發酵，市場分析師「密切關注資金是否轉向高成長山寨幣」；Avalanche、Solana 等被點名為基本面強勁且潛力大的競爭者。
Industry veterans advise that altcoin rallies in this cycle may be more selective and fundamentally driven.
業界老手建議，本輪山寨幣的行情將會更加篩選、並以基本面推動為主。
David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, opined that we likely won’t see a “dramatic altcoin season like 2021” with Bitcoin dominance collapsing below 40% in the near future. However, he does expect that as BTC continues to rise, altcoins will also rise significantly in value – just perhaps not to the same outsized degree across the board. In his view, for altcoins to truly break out against Bitcoin again, we’d need to see substantial real adoption and revenue growth in those projects (which could take a few years). That suggests the era of random tokens mooned solely by hype might be fading; instead, the market might reward projects with tangible traction (like leading smart contract platforms, interoperability protocols, etc.).
Wave Digital Assets 執行長 David Siemer 認為，短期內「如 2021 年那樣比特幣主導率跌破 40% 的戲劇性山寨季」不太可能出現。但他也看好隨著 BTC 持續上漲，山寨幣也會大幅升值，只是未必各個都瘋狂大漲。他認為，山寨幣想要再次明顯跑贏比特幣，需要看到實質採用與營收大幅成長（這或許還要等幾年）。這代表純靠炒作就「月球起飛」的隨機幣種時代或許正在消退，市場未來更可能青睞有實際成績（如領先的智能合約平台、跨鏈協議等）的項目。
Another change is the advent of altcoin-focused ETFs and investment products, which could divert some would-be direct altcoin buyers into more structured investments.
另一項改變是山寨幣 ETF 與相關投資商品的出現，可能會讓部分原本要直接買幣的人，改以更結構化的產品投資。
For instance, if an ETF holding a basket of top 10 altcoins launches (and a couple such products have been filed for approval), some investors might choose that route instead of picking individual winners – a behavior pattern more analogous to stock markets. This could moderate the once-violent boom-bust of smaller coins, but also means capital will still flow into the altcoin space, just in a more measured way.
例如，如果有主打十大山寨幣籃子的 ETF（目前已有數檔申請上市中），一些投資人可能會選擇這條路線，而不是自己挑贏家——這種行為模式更類似股票市場。這可能會讓過去小幣暴漲暴跌的局面有所緩和，但同時也代表資金仍會進入山寨幣市場，只是步調更加溫和。
In practical terms, a prolonged Bitcoin bull run sets a positive backdrop for altcoins, but it doesn’t guarantee an old-school altseason.
實際來說，比特幣牛市延長對山寨幣是加分的背景，但未必保證會出現以往那種「經典山寨季」。
We may instead see a series of mini-cycles or sector rotations: e.g., one month decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens rally on some news, another month gaming or layer-2 tokens have their moment – all while Bitcoin hums along strongly in the background. The days of nearly every altcoin doubling in a week (as happened at peak mania previously) may not repeat so uniformly.
我們可能會看到一連串的小周期或板塊輪動：例如某個月去中心化金融（DeFi）幣種因利多上漲，另一個月輪到遊戲或 Layer-2 幣種爆紅——比特幣則在背後維持強勢。像過去那種每個山寨幣一週內翻倍的狂潮，這次未必會再次普遍出現。
However, if Bitcoin truly soars to levels like $200K, it’s hard to imagine no frenzy at all in altcoins – retail traders historically love chasing lower-priced coins for the allure of higher percentage gains.
然而，如果比特幣真衝到 20 萬美元這種天價，很難想像山寨幣完全不會出現熱潮——因為散戶一向喜愛追逐低價幣，為了博取更高百分比的報酬。
So a scenario could unfold where, once Bitcoin’s climb begins to slow, a late-stage altcoin blowout finally occurs – perhaps in 2026 if the cycle extends. That could be the final chapter of the bull run, where exuberance spills over into everything from large-cap alts to obscure microcaps (likely followed by a correction).
因此，很可能出現這樣的劇本：等比特幣漲勢放緩後，山寨幣末段大爆發才姍姍來遲——假如週期再往後拉，或許會落在 2026 年。到時就會進入牛市最後一章，各種大中小幣由上到下都熱絡高漲（然後很可能緊接著修正）。
In summary, an extended Bitcoin bull run gives altcoins more runway to eventually rally, but the dynamics are different this time. Bitcoin’s dominance, institutional focus, and regulatory framework have all altered how and when altseason might unfold. It may be delayed, more muted, and focused on higher-quality projects. Yet many believe it will come in some form – markets move in cycles of attention. For now, Bitcoin is the undisputed leader of this bull market. But if and when
總結來說，比特幣牛市時間拉長，替山寨幣後續行情留下更多空間，但這次規則有所不同。比特幣主導率、機構化重心與法規框架，都改變了山寨季的型態與時機。未來的山寨季可能被延後、熱度降低， 且聚焦於質地較佳的項目。但多數人依然相信某種型態的輪動最終還是會出現——市場的注意力一向是周期輪轉。目前，比特幣仍是這次牛市當之無愧的主角。但若（以及當）...the king of crypto takes a breather, don’t be surprised if some of its court – the best of the altcoins – seize the moment to shine, albeit under new rules of engagement.
Conclusion
比特幣在2025年的牛市表現堪稱歷史性，將這項原創加密貨幣推升至六位數美元的價位，市值達到數兆美元。與以往某些時期不同，這一波漲勢似乎建立在強健的基本面和廣泛的支持之上。
如同本文所述，仍有諸多理由相信牛市尚未終結：機構投資人持續進場、總體經濟條件轉趨有利、供給持續緊縮、網路健康度達到高峰，而且無論是監管機構還是大眾都尚未設下重大障礙——事實上，他們的參與度正與日俱增。在許多方面，比特幣正處於其十五年來最具前景的位置：受到華爾街尊重、受到政策制定者的容納、被全球日益壯大的用戶基礎所採用，同時仍足夠稀有且創新，足以吸引想像力與資本。
當然，沒有任何一個牛市能夠永遠持續。謹慎的投資人都知道，拋物線式的上漲之後往往會出現劇烈的修正，今天的亢奮也可能孕育明日的自滿。風險依舊潛伏——不論是總體經濟環境的突變、監管政策的倒退，或是某些難以預料的危機考驗加密生態系的韌性。
波動性是參與加密市場的門票，即使在持續的牛市趨勢中，也免不了大幅回落（就如同十月閃崩給我們上的一課）。當散戶的FOMO（害怕錯過）情緒真正引爆時，市場也有可能進一步過熱，最終導致尖峰回落。
然而，只要故事主軸沒有劇烈變化，現有證據仍偏向多頭。比特幣的採用曲線持續向上彎曲，其逐步融入傳統金融體系，也降低了突然崩盤的機率。許多分析師現在談論所謂的「超級牛市週期」或延長週期，預期高低起伏將趨於平緩，為加密市場帶來更長、更可持續的成長軌跡。
如果說2025年證明了什麼，那就是比特幣的表現越來越像一個成熟的宏觀資產——它會受流動性和需求影響，沒錯，但同時也受到基礎設施發展和主流接受度這些具體進展的支撐。