最新 預測市場 新聞與洞察 | Yellow

Prediction-market traders now view CLARITY Act passage in 2026 as unlikely after John Thune declined to start a Senate cloture process before the August recess. Key Points: Kalshi-based reporting put the chance of enactment this year at 27% after Tuesday’s delay. The Senate has only days before its

Polymarket traders now put a 91% chance on Spider-Man: Brand New Day clearing $280 million in domestic ticket sales this weekend, far above studio forecasts. Key Points: Traders price a 91% probability that the sequel opens above $280 million domestically, with a 36% chance it tops $350 million. Son

Robinhood now quotes set-by-set odds on Denis Shapovalov's Los Cabos opener, one slice of a book that traded more than 16 billion contracts in 2026. Key Points: Robinhood is listing first set, second set and exact score contracts on Shapovalov's opening match at the Mifel Tennis Open. The brokerage

Hurricane Genevieve reached Category 5 strength on Monday with 160 mph winds, yet no contract on Polymarket or Kalshi prices the storm directly. Key Points: Genevieve became a Category 5 hurricane on Monday morning, the first eastern Pacific storm to reach that strength in two years. Polymarket list

Marvel cast David Jonsson as Black Panther and Ryan Gosling as Ghost Rider on Saturday, two reveals prediction markets priced wrong or not at all. Key Points: Marvel Studios named David Jonsson as T'Challa's son in Black Panther 3, dated for Dec. 15, 2028. Polymarket's casting market listed only Joh