Bitcoin Volatility Hits 2-Year Low As $144.6M ETF Outflow Raises Stakes

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility has fallen to a two-year low as a $144.6 million ETF outflow and weak trend signals raise the prospect of a sharp move.

Key Points:

Bollinger Band width narrowed to 3.8%, among its lowest readings in two years.

ADX stood at 11, while +DI and -DI remained close, showing no strong directional trend.

Long-term holder aNUPL turned negative, but it remained above the deeper levels seen at previous cycle bottoms.

Bitcoin Volatility

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative on Monday, Aug. 10, with $144.6 million leaving the products after five consecutive trading days of inflows totaling $865.3 million.

Bitcoin was also down slightly more than 3% from Sunday’s local high of $65,474, while the $65,000 to $67,000 area remained a key supply zone that the market had failed to clear.

That failure kept the supply zone intact. Liquidation levels below the market also pointed to $57,000 as a possible downside target if renewed selling pressure strengthened further.

Volatility was also compressed. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bollinger Band width had narrowed to 3.8%, among its lowest readings in two years, while the ADX trend-strength indicator stood at 11.

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Bitcoin Holder Stress

An ADX reading below 25 generally indicates that a strong trend has not formed, and the nearby +DI and -DI lines offered no clear bullish or bearish signal. Direction remained unclear.

CryptoQuant analyst Moreno also pointed to adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss for long-term Bitcoin holders, which had slipped below the market average and moved into negative territory. Holder stress was rising, but the metric remained above previous cycle-bottom lows.

That leaves two competing readings. Another sell-off could be needed before Bitcoin forms a durable bottom, or demand from institutional investors and corporate treasuries may be absorbing supply earlier than in previous cycles.

A move below $60,000 with a further decline in long-term holder NUPL would strengthen the bearish case, while a recovery toward zero would suggest that holder stress is easing. Before Monday’s ETF reversal, the five-session inflow streak had brought in $865.3 million, yet Bitcoin still failed to break the $65,000 to $67,000 supply zone.

Mehjabeen Arsiwala

Mehjabeen Arsiwala is a journalist covering crypto news, DeFi, exchanges, trading, and market analysis. Over the past three years, she has focused on the trends and narratives shaping digital asset markets, from price action and forecasts to exchange developments and on-chain signals. She specializes in clear reporting that helps readers understand what is happening in the market and why it matters.