Bitcoin (BTC) briefly reclaimed $65,000 after cooler U.S. inflation data, but holder selling and weak spot demand left the recovery facing a decisive $69,000 test.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin moved above $65,000 before falling back as two investor groups sold into the rally.
- Long-term-holder loss realization has declined from its recent peak, suggesting the strongest selling pressure may be easing.
- Sustained spot buying and ETF inflows remain necessary before a move above $69,000 can confirm a broader recovery.
Bitcoin Sellers
BeInCrypto reported on Jul. 16 that Bitcoin slipped 0.13% over 24 hours to $64,720 after briefly crossing $65,000, even as June consumer prices fell 0.4% and annual inflation cooled to 3.5%. The Producer Price Index also declined 0.3% from May while rising 5.5% from a year earlier, prompting traders to reduce expectations for a Jul. rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The macro relief did not remove overhead supply.
Glassnode said cycle-top buyers used the rally to reduce losses, while recent buyers who entered near local lows took profits into strength. “Two forces anchoring the rally simultaneously: cycle-top buyers reducing losses into strength, and local-low buyers locking in gains. Both are selling into the same price recovery,” Glassnode said.
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Glassnode Outlook
Glassnode’s relative long-term and short-term holder profit-and-loss measure shows that the long-term-holder share of selling has stopped expanding, while profit-taking by older wallets has nearly disappeared. Its entity-adjusted long-term-holder realized-loss measure peaked two weeks ago and has since declined, meeting a condition the firm previously identified as necessary for a durable recovery.
The shift is encouraging, not conclusive.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $181 million on Jul. 14 and $108 million on Jul. 15, according to SoSoValue, but derivatives traders unwinding bearish positions have not produced comparable spot demand. That support remains tentative.
“The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $69,000, the break-even of recent buyers, is the next overhead resistance; expect a strong reaction there,” Glassnode said.
A sustained reclaim would strengthen the recovery, while rejection would keep Bitcoin inside its recent range.
Bitcoin dropped to about $58,300 at the start of July after spending five months below key investor cost bases, then recovered into the mid-$60,000s as realized losses began to cool. That history makes the current bounce a test of demand, not a confirmed reversal.
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