Bitcoin (BTC) has spent February locked in a $60,000-$70,000 range, sitting 47% below its all-time high.
On-chain data from Glassnode point to stabilization, not recovery - with profitability, accumulation, and institutional flows all deteriorating simultaneously.
The analytics firm's Feb. 25 weekly report describes the current phase as a "temporary equilibrium" between seller exhaustion and support from long-term holders who accumulated at the same price band during the first half of 2024.
The 47.3% drawdown is comparable to the May 2022 range-bound phase that preceded further downside expansion, according to Glassnode.
What Happened
Nearly 9.2 million BTC are now held at a loss - roughly half of circulating supply.
The 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has dropped below 1.0, a threshold that historically marks the point where loss realization begins to dominate profit-taking. Past sustained breaks below that level have persisted for six months or longer.
The Accumulation Trend Score has stayed below 0.5 since Feb. 5, indicating large holders are not aggressively buying.
Spot Cumulative Volume Delta across major exchanges has plunged to fresh cycle lows, with Binance showing aggressive market sell orders. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows have remained in net outflow since late November, removing a structural tailwind that supported earlier rallies.
Read also: Bitcoin Hits Weakest Correlation With Stocks Since 2022
Why It Matters
Derivatives markets offer a mixed picture. Perpetual funding rates have normalized toward neutral, suggesting leveraged longs have been unwound rather than re-added. Implied volatility sits around 47% - elevated versus a month ago but not extreme.
One-week ATM volatility briefly spiked to 62% as Bitcoin approached $62,000, then compressed back to 47% once price stabilized above $65,000.
The 25 delta put skew has climbed toward 30%, near levels last seen during the Feb. 5 sharp drop. Dealer gamma is net short between $55,000 and $70,000, with roughly $1.5 billion of negative gamma concentrated at the $65,000 strike expiring this Friday. This positioning does not determine direction but amplifies moves once they begin.
Glassnode concludes that a durable recovery requires renewed spot absorption, sustained large-entity accumulation, and a shift in institutional flows. None of those conditions are currently met.