Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen back into an onchain-defined trading corridor after a sustained rotation into spot ETF outflows removed what had been the market’s most consistent source of structural demand, according to a new report from Glassnode.
The analytics firm said the loss of that institutional bid has pushed the asset into a defensive regime bounded by the True Market Mean near $79,000 and the Realized Price around $54,900, a range historically associated with bear-market absorption phases rather than active expansion.
ETF Outflows Remove Key Source Of Structural Demand
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which previously acted as a steady buyer during the advance toward cycle highs, are now seeing persistent net outflows.
That shift means new capital is no longer systematically entering the market to offset sell pressure.
Glassnode said the change in flow dynamics has left price increasingly dependent on organic spot demand, which remains weak across major exchanges.
Cumulative volume delta has turned decisively negative, signaling that market orders are now dominated by sellers rather than buyers.
Without renewed inflows, the report said, any recovery attempt is likely to struggle to gain traction.
Market Reverts To Cost-Basis Trading Range
With institutional accumulation fading, Bitcoin is now trading between two onchain valuation anchors that reflect investor cost basis rather than speculative momentum.
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Sell pressure is being absorbed in the $60,000–$69,000 zone, where a large cohort of holders accumulated during the first half of 2024.
Because those positions sit near breakeven, they have so far limited further downside and shifted the market into sideways consolidation.
However, the Accumulation Trend Score, which tracks balance changes across wallet sizes, has only recovered to neutral levels, indicating that large entities have not resumed sustained buying.
Liquidity Conditions Signal Constrained Capital Rotation
Broader liquidity metrics also remain weak.
The 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio has compressed into the 1–2 range, a level historically associated with late-stage bearish conditions where capital rotation slows and realized gains become limited.
Glassnode said a durable recovery would require that ratio to move back above 2 alongside renewed accumulation by large holders.
Derivatives Show End Of Panic, Not Return Of Bullish Positioning
Options markets indicate that the forced-hedging phase has passed, with implied volatility and downside skew declining sharply from recent highs.
That normalization suggests traders are no longer pricing an imminent crash.
But positioning remains defensive.
Funding rates are neutral to negative and traders are not rebuilding leveraged long exposure, reinforcing expectations for a prolonged consolidation rather than a trend reversal.
Institutional Flows Seen As Primary Trigger For Trend Change
The report said a shift back into sustained ETF inflows, stronger spot absorption and high-conviction accumulation by large entities would be required to re-establish an expansionary regime.
Until those conditions emerge, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a liquidity-constrained range defined by investor cost basis rather than momentum-driven price discovery.
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