The Global Risk Institute's seventh annual Quantum Threat Timeline Report, authored by Dr. Michele Mosca and Dr. Marco Piani of evolutionQ, surveyed 26 international quantum computing experts and found the average estimated probability of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer emerging within 10 years now sits between 28% and 49% — the highest figure in the report's seven-year history.
Expert Survey Findings
The report polled specialists across academia and industry from North America, Europe, Asia and Oceania. Half the respondents placed the 10-year probability at roughly 50% or higher. Six rated it above 70%.
At the 15-year mark, the outlook grows more definitive.
Eighteen of the 26 experts assessed the likelihood of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer at 50% or above, placing the averaged range between 51% and 70%.
By 20 years, near-certainty prevails: 92% of respondents put the probability at 50% or higher, with nearly half calling it "extremely likely." The survey was conducted before a cluster of recent research breakthroughs — including a Google Quantum AI paper that cut estimated qubit requirements for breaking elliptic curve cryptography by a factor of 20 — meaning the results may already understate the pace of progress.
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Crypto Industry Implications
The findings carry direct consequences for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and other major blockchains that rely on elliptic curve cryptography to secure transactions.
A sufficiently powerful quantum machine running Shor's algorithm could theoretically derive private keys from public keys, undermining the signature schemes that authenticate virtually every onchain transfer.
Preparedness varies sharply. Bitcoin lacks a coordinated migration plan, and Chaincode Labs has estimated that an emergency upgrade would take at least two years, with a realistic timeline closer to seven.
The Ethereum Foundation published a formal post-quantum cryptography roadmap in Feb. and is targeting 2029 for quantum resistance.
