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Key Points Kalshi Research studied more than 2.2 million resolved markets from the platform’s 2021 launch through mid-2026. The study found Kalshi prices become more accurate and better calibrated as markets approach resolution. Trading volume and trader participation improved calibration, though th

Kalshi filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to bring crypto-style perpetual futures to a U.S. stock index and copper, extending a structure it first introduced domestically with Bitcoin (BTC). Key Points: Kalshi filed on Aug. 18 for perpetual futures tied to a U.S. stock index and cop

Polymarket traders put just a 6% chance on Russia invading a NATO country this year, after U.S. intelligence warned Vladimir Putin could strike as soon as this autumn. Key Points: U.S. intelligence now assesses that Russia could mount a limited attack on a NATO member at any point between this autum

Prediction-market traders now view CLARITY Act passage in 2026 as unlikely after John Thune declined to start a Senate cloture process before the August recess. Key Points: Kalshi-based reporting put the chance of enactment this year at 27% after Tuesday’s delay. The Senate has only days before its

Polymarket traders now put a 91% chance on Spider-Man: Brand New Day clearing $280 million in domestic ticket sales this weekend, far above studio forecasts. Key Points: Traders price a 91% probability that the sequel opens above $280 million domestically, with a 36% chance it tops $350 million. Son