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آخر أخبار وتحليلات أسواق التنبؤ | Yellow

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الأخبار

Real money wagers on the Marvel Spider-Man's opening weekend have climbed above studio and analyst projections. (Image: Shutterstock)

Polymarket Traders Give Spider-Man A 91% Shot At A Historic Debut

Polymarket traders now put a 91% chance on Spider-Man: Brand New Day clearing $280 million in domestic ticket sales this weekend, far above studio forecasts. Key Points: Traders price a 91% probability that the sequel opens above $280 million domestically, with a 36% chance it tops $350 million. Son

How a first-round tennis match in Baja became a window into Robinhood's reliance on Kalshi for its event contract supply. (Image: Shutterstock)

Shapovalov's Los Cabos Opener Now Trades On Robinhood, One Set At A Time

Robinhood now quotes set-by-set odds on Denis Shapovalov's Los Cabos opener, one slice of a book that traded more than 16 billion contracts in 2026. Key Points: Robinhood is listing first set, second set and exact score contracts on Shapovalov's opening match at the Mifel Tennis Open. The brokerage

Two of the biggest prediction market venues carry no bet on the year's strongest storm, now packing 160 mph winds. (Image: Shutterstock)

Hurricane Genevieve Hits 160 MPH And No Prediction Market Prices It

Hurricane Genevieve reached Category 5 strength on Monday with 160 mph winds, yet no contract on Polymarket or Kalshi prices the storm directly. Key Points: Genevieve became a Category 5 hurricane on Monday morning, the first eastern Pacific storm to reach that strength in two years. Polymarket list

Exchanges pricing Marvel's Comic-Con casting reveals carried the wrong names, or skipped the question entirely. (Image: Shutterstock)

Ghost Rider And Black Panther: Prediction Markets Whiffed On Marvel's Two Biggest Casting Reveals

Marvel cast David Jonsson as Black Panther and Ryan Gosling as Ghost Rider on Saturday, two reveals prediction markets priced wrong or not at all. Key Points: Marvel Studios named David Jonsson as T'Challa's son in Black Panther 3, dated for Dec. 15, 2028. Polymarket's casting market listed only Joh

A near-even flyweight market on the UFC Abu Dhabi card left Erceg and Temirov separated by roughly one cent. (Image: Shutterstock)

Polymarket And Kalshi Give Temirov A 52% Edge Over Steve Erceg

Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi priced Saturday's Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov flyweight bout at 52 cents to 48 cents, the tightest market on the UFC Abu Dhabi card. Key Points: Erceg and Temirov opened near even money on both platforms, closer than any other fight on the Abu Dhabi main card. Po

الأبحاث

A single book on Polymarket holds $2 billion as Kalshi scatters the same World Cup wager over 48 markets and collects the fees. (Image: Shutterstock)

Prediction Markets Just Crossed $25.7B, Rivaling Mid-Tier Crypto Exchanges

Camille MeulienJun 22, 2026

Prediction markets just posted their biggest monthly trading volume on record. A joint report from Bitget Wallet and CoinMarketCap, published in June 2026, confirmed that total platform volume reached $25.7 billion in March 2026 — a 10.6% jump from February. The headline number is striking. What sit

How a first-round tennis match in Baja became a window into Robinhood's reliance on Kalshi for its event contract supply. (Image: Shutterstock)

Polymarket's Nine Anonymous Whales Control Billions In Prediction Bets

Murtuza MerchantMay 27, 2026

Nine anonymous crypto wallets have reportedly gained outsized sway over the outcomes of some of Polymarket's most hotly contested prediction markets. Retail traders are furious. Many of them believe the platform's central promise — crowd-sourced truth — has been quietly hollowed out. The claim comes

How Prediction Markets Became Crypto’s Fastest-Growing Capital Flow Machine

How Prediction Markets Became Crypto’s Fastest-Growing Capital Flow Machine

Alexey BondarevMay 15, 2026

Prediction markets spent most of the past decade as a niche curiosity. Then the 2024 U.S. presidential election arrived, and a single platform processed more volume on the outcome than some mid-cap stock exchanges moved in a day. Monthly notional volume for the sector has since surged past $24 billi

Crypto market sectors competing for capital in 2026 as stablecoins and tokenization gain ground (Image: Shutterstock)

Crypto Narratives Of 2026: Where Real Capital Flows — And Where Hype Dies

Alexey BondarevApr 13, 2026

Crypto narratives shape where liquidity, attention, and builder energy flow next, and in 2026 those flows have split decisively between sectors absorbing real capital and sectors running on borrowed hype. This is not a "best coins" list but a map of the themes that CoinGecko, Messari, and major inst

Prediction markets transform uncertainty into tradeable assets as industry volume surges past $44 billion (Image: Shutterstock)

The Prediction Market Economy: How Everything Became A Bet

Alexey BondarevApr 09, 2026

Prediction markets have surged from academic curiosity to a $44 billion industry in under three years. What began as simple election wagers on Wall Street in the 1860s now prices everything from Federal Reserve rate decisions to whether OpenAI will announce achieving AGI before 2027. The growth refl

التعلم

A single book on Polymarket holds $2 billion as Kalshi scatters the same World Cup wager over 48 markets and collects the fees. (Image: Shutterstock)

How Polymarket And Kalshi Actually Price Real-World Events

Alexey BondarevAug 02, 2026

Polls ask people what they think. Prediction markets ask them to put money behind it. That single difference changes everything about how accurate the resulting probability turns out to be. When Kalshi listed odds on the 2026 World Cup alongside Polymarket, millions of dollars moved within minutes —

Prediction Markets Move $4B On World Cup, Know The Mechanics Now

Prediction Markets Move $4B On World Cup, Know The Mechanics Now

Murtuza MerchantJul 15, 2026

Prediction markets placed more than $4.2 billion on the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner alone. That is not a bet with a bookmaker. No house set those odds. Every price you see on Polymarket or Kalshi was produced by real people trading shares against each other, and the mechanics behind that process are

Combined prediction market volume reached $44.8 billion in June as World Cup wagers surged across Kalshi and Polymarket. (Image: Shutterstock)

Prediction Markets Pay Out In Cents, So Why Is Volume In Billions?

Alexey BondarevJul 06, 2026

Prediction markets generated $5.6 billion in volume during June 2026 alone. Most of that was wagered on World Cup outcomes. But almost nobody placing those bets could tell you where the odds actually came from — or why a "Yes" share on a correctly resolved market paid out exactly $1. The mechanics b

Six exchange-traded funds from Roundhill, tied to U.S. election results, are scheduled to begin trading in brokerage accounts May 5. (Image: Shutterstock)

What Are Prediction Markets? How They Work, Who Uses Them, And Why They Matter In 2026

Alexey BondarevApr 26, 2026

Most people bet on sports. Prediction markets let you bet on almost anything else: elections, central bank decisions, tech product launches, even weather events. The twist is that the prices on these markets are not arbitrary. They behave like probabilities, and the crowd setting them is often more

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