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Polymarket bettors sent death threats to an Israeli military correspondent after he reported that an Iranian ballistic missile struck an open area near Beit Shemesh on March 10, a report whose wording determined the outcome of a $14 million-plus prediction market contract. The episode adds to mounti

Prediction markets are signaling a sharp shift in expectations for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, with traders on the regulated exchange Kalshi now assigning an 85% probability that Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives, the highest level recorded on the platform. What Ha

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is signaling closer oversight of prediction markets as the fast-growing sector begins to intersect more directly with traditional financial infrastructure. What Happened The agency’s Division of Market Oversight issued a new advisory on March 12 r

Polymarket has partnered with Palantir Technologies and TWG AI to build a real-time surveillance system for its sports prediction markets. The platform will use the Vergence AI engine to detect manipulation, screen prohibited users, and automate compliance reporting. The announcement comes as Polyma

Kalshi and luxury watch marketplace Bezel have launched event contracts allowing users to bet on the future prices of high-end timepieces, including Rolex and Patek Philippe models. The move extends Kalshi's push into collectibles prediction markets, following earlier deals in sneakers and trading c