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Solana ETF може привабити $3B у перший рік, оскільки фонди альткоїнів виходять на історичний дебют на Wall Street

Solana ETF може привабити $3B у перший рік, оскільки фонди альткоїнів виходять на історичний дебют на Wall Street

The first U.S. spot exchange-traded funds for Solana, Hedera and Litecoin began trading Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, marking a watershed expansion of regulated cryptocurrency investment options beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum — and doing so despite an ongoing federal government shutdown that has left the Securities and Exchange Commission largely non-operational.

If early momentum holds and historical patterns repeat, Solana's ETF alone could attract over $3 billion in inflows during its first 12 to 18 months of trading, according to projections from Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart. The development represents the most significant broadening of crypto ETF access since spot Bitcoin and Ethereum products launched in 2024.

Bitwise's Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) debuted on the New York Stock Exchange with $10 million in trading volume during its first 30 minutes, according to Bloomberg Intelligence's Eric Balchunas. Meanwhile on Nasdaq, Canary Capital's Hedera ETF (HBR) posted $4 million and its Litecoin ETF (LTCC) recorded $400,000 in early trading activity.

Balchunas projected BSOL would reach approximately $52 million in total volume by end of day, with HBR and LTCC expected to hit $8 million and $7 million respectively. While these figures pale in comparison to Bitcoin's thunderous debut, market observers emphasized that for altcoin products, the launch represents a significant achievement.

"A good frame of reference is to look at the size of Solana in relation to bitcoin and Ethereum," Seyffart explained. "Solana's market cap is 5% of Bitcoin's and 22% of Ethereum's. If they keep up with the flows we've seen for ETH and BTC ETFs on a relative basis, that would equate to like $3+ billion in flows over the first 12 to 18 months."

Context: Bitcoin and Ethereum Set High Bar

The projections are based on the extraordinary success of earlier cryptocurrency ETF launches. When spot Bitcoin ETFs debuted in January 2024, they collectively attracted approximately $655 million in net inflows on their first day across multiple issuers, with trading volumes reaching billions of dollars.

Spot Ethereum ETFs, which launched in July 2024, saw $106.7 million in net inflows on day one, with over $1 billion in cumulative trading volume. While these figures were approximately 16-24% of Bitcoin's debut metrics, analysts still characterized the Ethereum launch as highly successful when compared to traditional ETF standards.

Tuesday's altcoin launches featured only one issuer per asset initially, though Grayscale's Solana Trust conversion to ETF format is scheduled to begin trading Wednesday. This staggered rollout differs from the simultaneous multi-issuer debuts that characterized both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches.

A Technical Path Through Regulatory Limbo

The launches occurred through an unconventional regulatory pathway amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has left the SEC's staff unable to actively review new filings. However, the funds leveraged the Securities Act of 1933's automatic effectiveness provision, which allows S-1 registration statements to become effective automatically after 20 days if no delaying amendment is filed.

The products are structured under Section 1933 rather than the Investment Company Act of 1940 — a regulatory framework commonly used for commodity-based ETFs. This '33 Act structure doesn't require a board of directors or daily portfolio disclosure, making it a streamlined format for single-asset cryptocurrency funds.

Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett confirmed that the issuers had included specific language in their filings allowing automatic effectiveness, enabling them to proceed with listings even while government operations remained suspended. Both the NYSE and Nasdaq certified the necessary 8-A filings under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, completing the regulatory requirements for exchange trading.

Bitwise Leads With Competitive Fee Structure

Bitwise's BSOL differentiates itself through an aggressive fee strategy and staking integration. The fund carries a 0.20% management fee — described by the firm as among the lowest in the space — but waives fees entirely for the first three months or until assets reach $1 billion, whichever comes first.

Critically, BSOL aims to stake 100% of its SOL holdings through Bitwise Onchain Solutions, powered by validator Helius. This staking integration targets participation in Solana's approximately 7% average annual staking rewards — a feature absent from Bitcoin and initially missing from Ethereum ETF products.

"Investors like growth potential, and investors like staking rewards," said Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley. "BSOL provides low-cost exposure to both. We're thrilled to create high-quality access to one of the most widely used blockchains in crypto: Solana."

The staking component addresses one of the primary criticisms leveled at earlier Ethereum ETFs, where the absence of staking functionality disappointed many institutional investors accustomed to earning yield on their holdings. By incorporating staking from launch, Bitwise positions BSOL as a more comprehensive product that captures both price appreciation and protocol rewards.

Smaller Market Caps Point to Lower Inflow Expectations

While Seyffart's $3+ billion projection for Solana appears bullish, his analysis suggests significantly lower figures for Hedera and Litecoin based on their relative market capitalizations. "HBAR's market cap is about 8% the size of Solana while Litecoin is 7% of Solana," Seyffart noted. "So probably going to be much smaller. Again, time will tell."

Using the same proportional analysis that generated the Solana projection, HBAR could potentially attract $240-300 million over 12-18 months, while Litecoin might see $210-250 million — assuming they track ETF flow patterns proportionate to their market caps.

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg described the Litecoin debut as "another landmark moment in what has been a pivotal year for the crypto industry," noting that "Litecoin has demonstrated a proven track record of security and reliability with significant enterprise-class use cases."

CoinDesk Indices provides the pricing benchmarks for both HBR and LTCC, establishing the reference rates that ensure the ETFs track their underlying assets accurately. Both funds hold their respective cryptocurrencies directly through qualified custodians including Coinbase Custody and BitGo.

Broader Implications for Crypto Market Structure

The successful launch of altcoin ETFs represents more than just new investment vehicles — it signals a fundamental shift in how institutional capital can access cryptocurrency markets. The expansion beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum acknowledges that blockchain networks serving different purposes and ecosystems deserve representation in traditional financial markets.

Market observers note that the relative success or failure of these products will likely influence the approval prospects for other pending altcoin ETF applications. Multiple issuers have filed for spot XRP ETFs, with Bloomberg analysts reportedly assigning a 98% probability of approval. Additional applications are pending for Dogecoin, Polkadot and other major cryptocurrencies.

The staggered nature of these approvals — with Solana, Hedera and Litecoin proceeding ahead of other assets — appears driven by a combination of factors including filing dates, regulatory clarity, and the networks' technical characteristics and decentralization profiles.

"2025 has been a turning point for crypto," Horsley observed. "At long last, it is " стрімко приймається як альтернативний клас активів у мейнстрімі. Запуск BSOL сьогодні є ще одним важливим кроком, який відкриває шлях для інвесторів для участі в одній з найбільш широко використовуваних і найбільш стрімко зростаючих технологічних платформ у цій сфері."

Заключні думки

З перетворенням Solana Trust від Grayscale, запланованим на середу, конкурентне середовище для експозиції до Solana негайно розшириться. Grayscale приносить визнання бренду та існуючу базу інвесторів завдяки багаторічній діяльності як закритий траст, хоча перетворення ймовірно викличе деякі відтоки, оскільки ранні інвестори, які володіли акціями з преміями або знижками, знижують свої позиції.

Модель перетворень, яка викликає початкові відтоки перед стабілізацією, відбулася як з GBTC Bitcoin, так і з ETHE Ethereum, які зазнали понад $1,5 мільярда чистих відтоків протягом першого тижня Ethereum ETF. Однак, за винятком цих відтоків, пов’язаних з перетворенням, нові продукти ETF стабільно демонстрували сильний попит від інституційних інвесторів.

Кілька інших емітентів, включаючи VanEck, 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, і додаткові продукти від Grayscale подали або висловили наміри подати заявки на Solana, Hedera та Litecoin ETFs. Остаточний конкурентний ландшафт може включати 5-10 продуктів на актив, що відображає ринки Bitcoin і Ethereum.

Для інвесторів ключове питання залишається, чи можуть ETF для альткоїнів повторити навіть частину надзвичайного успіху Bitcoin. BlackRock's IBIT накопичив понад $37 мільярдів активів у 2024 році, ставши третьою за величиною запуском ETF в історії та демонструючи безпрецедентний інституційний апетит до експозиції криптовалюти.

Оскільки торги тривають, учасники ринку будуть спостерігати не тільки за обсягами та потоками даних, але й за впливом цін на базові токени, змінами в шаблонах інституційного володіння, і чи обгортка ETF успішно приваблює капітал, який інакше не потрапив би на крипторинки шляхом прямої покупки токенів.

Запуск цих продуктів на тлі зупинки роботи уряду додає незвичайний контекст до історії ринку криптовалют — демонструючи, як технічні положення в законі про цінні папери можуть сприяти інноваціям на ринку, навіть коли регуляторні агентства самі не працюють.

Застереження: Інформація, надана в цій статті, є виключно освітньою і не повинна розглядатися як фінансова або юридична консультація. Завжди проводьте власні дослідження або звертайтеся до фахівців перед тим, як працювати з криптовалютними активами.
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Solana ETF може привабити $3B у перший рік, оскільки фонди альткоїнів виходять на історичний дебют на Wall Street | Yellow.com