Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, has made a bold prediction that Ethereum (ETH) could surge to between $10,000 and $20,000 before the end of the current crypto market cycle.
In a recent interview, Hayes also revealed he is strategically overweight on ETH over Solana (SOL), citing macroeconomic tailwinds, market momentum, and institutional inflows as core drivers of Ethereum’s potential upside.
Hayes’ forecast comes after a recent shift in sentiment. Just weeks ago, he had taken profits and exited key positions - including ETH - expecting a near-term market pullback triggered by geopolitical and fiscal policy pressures, especially former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs.
But with Ethereum bouncing back sharply and breaking above the $4,000 level, Hayes has not only reversed course but significantly increased his exposure.
From $3K Caution to $20K Confidence
Earlier in August, Hayes liquidated over $8 million in ETH, PEPE, and ENA, warning that global instability and U.S. political developments could trigger a sharp correction across risk assets. At the time, he anticipated Ethereum might drop to $3,000 before rebounding.
However, Ethereum’s price trajectory defied expectations. The asset quickly surged more than 20% in one week, topping $4,000 and forcing Hayes back into the market.
“I bought back some of the ETH that I sold,” Hayes said during the interview. “The chart says it’s going higher. So I can’t fight the market. I think ETH goes $10,000 to $20,000 before the end of the cycle.”
By mid-August, Hayes had repurchased over 1,700 ETH, valued again at more than $8 million, alongside positions in trending tokens such as HYPE and Lido DAO (LDO).
Breaking the ATH Could Spark a Wave of Institutional FOMO
Hayes emphasized that Ethereum’s price dynamics are likely to change dramatically once it breaks above its previous all-time high of $4,878 set in November 2021. “Once Ethereum clears its ATH, it’s a gap of air to the upside,” he said.
He argued that the psychological resistance of an all-time high is critical in market cycles. Once breached, especially in a bullish macro environment, it often triggers rapid acceleration in price as fund managers, venture capitalists, and DAOs rush to gain exposure.
“It’s gonna be even easier to raise money if the asset they’re buying has just broken through its all-time high,” Hayes said. “It’s just sending upwards. So I think the sky’s the limit.”
The prediction also aligns with recent on-chain trends. Ethereum has seen a resurgence in staking, Layer-2 ecosystem expansion, and sustained developer activity, all of which reinforce bullish technicals and fundamentals.
Political Catalysts: Trump, Inflation, and the Pro-Risk Environment
Hayes also linked his bullish ETH thesis to U.S. political dynamics. He argued that Trump’s political influence could indirectly fuel risk-on assets like crypto.
“Any financial asset Trump backs or believes is important will go on a massive bull run between now and when he leaves office,” Hayes said. While Trump has yet to officially endorse Ethereum or any specific token, the pro-crypto policy tone of his campaign, including support for mining and opposition to CBDCs, has already energized investor sentiment.
Coupled with stagflationary macro pressures, potential monetary easing, and increased capital inflows from Asia and institutional funds, Hayes sees the environment as ripe for a major Ethereum price breakout.
Ethereum vs. Solana: Hayes Picks ETH
The interview also touched on the enduring debate between Ethereum and Solana, with Hayes clearly favoring the former.
“They’re both gonna go up,” he said. “The question is, which one goes up more?” Pressed on which asset he would be more overweight on during the current cycle, Hayes confirmed, “Correct,” signaling a tilt toward ETH.
This isn’t just a matter of loyalty to Ethereum’s legacy. Hayes’ preference reflects his view that Ethereum offers a better risk-reward profile, especially for institutional allocators.
While Solana has emerged as a high-performance chain with low fees and strong DeFi/NFT traction, it continues to face challenges around decentralization, downtime, and regulatory uncertainty. Ethereum, on the other hand, has benefited from the ETH ETF approvals in the U.S., widespread developer adoption, and the success of Layer-2 scaling solutions like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base.
Market Snapshot: Ethereum Steady, Solana Softens
As of press time, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $4,288, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours and 7.4% over the past week. Despite the short-term retracement, it remains up 14.8% over the past month, according to CoinGecko. The price is currently about 12% below its all-time high.
Solana (SOL), meanwhile, is trading at $183, having dropped 2.4% over the last day and 6% over the week. Despite its impressive rally earlier this year, which saw it peak at $293 in January, SOL is now down nearly 37% from that high. However, it still posts a 5.1% monthly gain - showing that interest in the ecosystem remains intact.
These numbers reflect a broader market recalibration, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins consolidating after a strong Q2 rally. Analysts suggest that the next leg up will likely come from a clear break of historical resistance levels, particularly for Ethereum.
The Bigger Picture: ETH as a Macro Asset
Hayes’ ETH thesis isn’t just about technicals or momentum. He views Ethereum as a macro asset class that will increasingly attract pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and hedge funds seeking inflation hedges and exposure to Web3 infrastructure.
Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake, deflationary tokenomics via EIP-1559, and programmable financial primitives position it as a yield-generating, digitally scarce asset-a combination few competitors can replicate.
Further, the pending spot ETH ETF products in both the U.S. and Asia are expected to unlock significant capital inflows, giving Ethereum access to the same institutional gateways that have recently boosted Bitcoin’s price and reputation.
Final thoughts
Arthur Hayes’ revised stance on Ethereum underscores a broader trend among crypto veterans and institutional investors: Ethereum is not just surviving, it's maturing into a prime macro asset.
While Solana, Avalanche, and other Layer-1s continue to innovate, Ethereum’s network effects, regulatory progress, and financialization may give it the edge as the market gears up for the next bull leg.
If ETH clears its all-time high and follows the trajectory Hayes envisions, $10,000-let alone $20,000-may no longer look like an extreme call, but rather a logical extension of crypto’s integration into the global financial system.