Mechanism Capital's Andrew Kang predicts a potential drop in Ether's value if spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are approved. Kang suggests Ether could fall to $2,400. That would be a 30% decrease from its current price of $3,410.

Kang cites several factors for his bearish outlook. He notes limited institutional interest in Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. He also points out a lack of incentives to convert spot Ether to ETF form.

"How much upside would an ETH ETF Provide? I would argue not much," Kang stated on social media. "After the ETF launch my expectation is $2,400 to $3,000."

This forecast contrasts with Ether's recent performance. The asset reached over $4,000 in March, coinciding with Bitcoin's new all-time high.

Kang anticipates spot Ether ETFs will attract only 15% of the flows seen by spot Bitcoin ETFs. He estimates $840 million in "true" inflows over six months, based on Bitcoin ETF data.

"I believe that the expectations of crypto natives are overinflated and disconnected from the true preferences of tradfi allocators," Kang remarked. He suggests the ETF's impact is already priced in.

Not all analysts share Kang's pessimism. Patrick Scott expects similar movement to Bitcoin ETFs, while Van Eck projects Ether could reach $22,000 by 2030.

Kang argues Ethereum's pitch as a decentralized financial settlement layer or Web3 app store is a "hard sell" given current data. He compares Ethereum to an overpriced tech stock, citing its high price-to-sales ratio and negative earnings after inflation.

The removal of staking from proposed spot Ether ETFs may deter investors, Kang adds. He acknowledges institutional interest in real-world asset tokenization on Ethereum but questions its impact on Ether's price.

Kang predicts the ETH/BTC price ratio could fall from 0.054 to 0.035 over the next year. However, he suggests a Bitcoin rally to $100,000 could push Ether to a new all-time high.