The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has exercised its final procedural extension authority, pushing back decisions on spot Solana exchange-traded fund applications to October 16, 2025.
The regulatory agency announced Thursday it will use its maximum 60-day delay period to review proposals from major asset management firms, including Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Marinade Finance.
The delay impacts the timeline for Solana's integration into mainstream financial products, with the SEC stating it needs additional time to "consider the proposed rule changes and the issues raised." This decision follows an established pattern of regulatory caution toward cryptocurrency-linked investment products, similar to delays experienced by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF applications before their eventual approvals.
Critical Deadline Approaches for Multiple Applicants
The SEC's filing on Thursday established identical language for both the Bitwise Solana ETF and 21Shares Core Solana ETF proposals, with both facing the October 16 deadline. The orders cite the need for "sufficient time to consider" proposed rule changes that would list Commodity-Based Trust Shares under BZX Rule 14.11(e)(4), which sets eligibility, disclosure, and surveillance requirements for exchange-traded products backed by physical commodities.
The regulatory timeline has been extended multiple times since initial filings began in January 2025. VanEck became the first to file a Solana ETF application in June 2024 via Form S-1 registration, followed by 21Shares in the same month planning to list on the Cboe BZX Exchange. Additional applications from heavyweight financial institutions have since joined the queue.
Grayscale filed its application in January 2025 to convert its existing GSOL trust into a spot ETF for NYSE Arca listing, while Franklin Templeton submitted both S-1 and 19b-4 forms in March 2025 for listing on Cboe BZX Exchange. Notably, Fidelity's March 25 application includes provisions to stake a portion of SOL holdings through third-party providers, potentially allowing the ETF to generate yield for investors.
Market Dynamics and Regulatory Concerns
Industry analysts point to several factors complicating the approval process. "Even with market infrastructure for Solana maturing in terms of liquidity, custody solutions, and institutional interest, unresolved concerns around regulatory classification, network stability, and potential concentration of control within the ecosystem are still looming," Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, told industry publications.
The regulatory classification question remains paramount. "The SEC's full extension likely stems from Solana's still-shaky security-or-commodity status, a call that carries far more consequence than any other concern," Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, explained. "Market manipulation and surveillance safeguards are also squarely in play, as both factors will set the tone for all future altcoin ETF bids."
The outlook for Solana ETFs follows the recent success of other cryptocurrency investment products. The largest bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), has accumulated more than $37 billion in assets since its launch last year, becoming the most successful new fund in history.
Industry Positioning and Strategic Developments
The competitive landscape for Solana ETF providers continues to evolve. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has confirmed it currently has no plans to launch a Solana product, with some observers suggesting the firm remains content with its existing Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. This leaves the field open for other major players to capture first-mover advantage in the Solana ETF market.
Recent developments indicate the SEC is pushing issuers to amend and refile applications for spot Solana ETFs by the end of July, hinting at faster-than-expected approvals. The regulatory pressure follows the automatic approval of the REX-Osprey SOL and Staking ETF, which began trading under different regulatory rules, creating competitive dynamics the SEC traditionally seeks to avoid.
The SEC's push for expedited refiling follows the approval of the REX-Osprey SOL Staking ETF (SSK), which began trading last week and was also the first US-listed Solana investment product to incorporate staking. This development has added urgency to the review process, as regulators typically prefer simultaneous approvals to prevent market distortions.
Technical Infrastructure and Market Prerequisites
Solana ETF applications leverage the same regulatory framework used successfully by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The proposals utilize the Commodity-Based Trust Share structure and rely on surveillance-sharing arrangements tied to CME Solana futures, which launched in February 2025. This futures market establishment followed the precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum, where futures products preceded spot ETF approvals.
Solana has already checked off key prerequisites for ETF approval, including the prior authorization of Solana futures ETFs by Volatility Shares this past March, making it the first U.S.-approved futures ETF for a Layer-1 project after Bitcoin and Ethereum. The "futures-first, spot-next" pattern is viewed as a critical maturity milestone for institutional acceptance.
Outside the United States, Canada's Toronto Stock Exchange launched four Solana spot ETFs in April, complete with staking features, thereby enhancing institutional interest and exerting international regulatory pressure on the SEC. These global precedents strengthen the case for U.S. approval and demonstrate established market demand.
Market Impact and Price Implications
Betting markets reflect growing optimism around potential approval, with Polymarket showing a 77% probability that the Securities and Exchange Commission will greenlight spot Solana ETFs in 2025. Professional analysts have assigned even higher probability ratings to approval scenarios.
Bloomberg analysts note that Solana, along with litecoin (LTC) and digital asset index baskets, has a 90% chance of ETF approval, with XRP following closely at 85% probability. These assessments reflect improved regulatory sentiment and technical readiness of underlying market infrastructure.
JPMorgan analysts estimate that, upon approval, Solana ETFs could attract between $3 billion and $6 billion in net assets within the first year. This influx of institutional investment is expected to significantly impact SOL's market value. Current trading data shows SOL maintaining support levels around $190, with technical patterns suggesting potential for significant upward movement following regulatory clarity.
The implications extend beyond individual price performance. "Traders will speculate and stack Solana to front-run the final call, while the deadline sets the stage for other altcoin-linked ETFs, shaping sentiment, and deciding whether Solana becomes the precedent or the pause button for the next wave of products," Liu noted.
Broader Regulatory Context and Future Outlook
The SEC has delayed decisions on several crypto-based ETF applications over the past few months, despite its pro-crypto pivot. This pattern reflects the agency's methodical approach to expanding cryptocurrency investment products while maintaining investor protection standards.
Some analysts believe it may be as late as 2026 before a spot Solana ETF is fully approved, due to ongoing legal questions around crypto platforms like Binance and Coinbase. However, others remain more optimistic about near-term prospects under current regulatory leadership.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart expressed cautious optimism in recent statements, suggesting that "standard spot Solana ETFs could be approved by mid-October at the latest." This timeline aligns with the SEC's October 16 deadline and reflects growing confidence in regulatory resolution.
The October decision will likely influence the broader cryptocurrency ETF landscape. Pending applications include ETFs tied to Solana, XRP, and tokens themed around Trump and Dogecoin, all of which remain under review. A positive Solana decision could accelerate reviews for other altcoin-based products, while rejection might signal continued regulatory hesitation.
For investors and market participants, the October 16 deadline represents a critical inflection point. Success could unlock institutional capital flows comparable to those seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, while further delays might dampen short-term enthusiasm for altcoin ETF products. The coming months will likely see continued market positioning as participants prepare for what many consider a watershed moment for cryptocurrency mainstream adoption.
With multiple heavyweight financial institutions committed to the Solana ETF race and market infrastructure continuing to mature, the stage is set for a regulatory decision that could reshape cryptocurrency investment accessibility and institutional adoption patterns across the digital asset ecosystem.