Toncoin has dropped below $3 as investors brace for monthly token releases beginning in November 2025, with the cryptocurrency trading at $2.66 following a 1.3% decline in 24 hours and a more than 5% drop over the past week. The Believers Fund plans to release approximately 37 million TON tokens each month starting next month, creating what analysts describe as a supply overhang that could push prices toward $2.61 in the near term.
What to Know:
- The Believers Fund will release roughly 37 million TON tokens monthly starting November 2025, introducing sustained selling pressure that could drive prices to $2.61.
- TON Strategy Company has staked 82% of its Toncoin holdings and expects $24 million in annual staking revenue to fund a $250 million share buyback program.
- AlphaTON Capital deployed $30 million into Toncoin and plans to grow its treasury to $100 million by year-end, backed by executives from Animoca Brands, Kraken, SkyBridge and DWF Labs.
Supply Concerns Meet Market Reality
The planned token releases initially sparked fears of a 635 million token dump, but TON ecosystem representatives clarified the unlock schedule would unfold gradually over time. The monthly releases still represent a significant expansion of circulating supply.
Social commerce activity and demand for NFT stickers within Telegram's platform may provide some counterbalance to the selling pressure. The network serves as the only major cryptocurrency directly integrated into a mainstream social application with more than one billion users. BeLaunch, a TON-focused research account, noted that Telegram's user base continues driving demand for digital collectibles including Pudgy Penguins and DOGS OG stickers.
Institutions Stake Their Claims
TON Strategy Company, which trades on Nasdaq under the ticker TONX, has committed 82% of its treasury holdings to staking. The digital asset treasury firm has repurchased more than 1.5 million shares since mid-September.
"This accretive approach, staking income in, buybacks out, reinforces our long-term focus on shareholder value," CEO Veronika Kapustina said.
AlphaTON Capital raised $71 million in recent financing rounds and immediately allocated $30 million to Toncoin purchases. The firm's backers include senior figures from established crypto companies. AlphaTON views TON's integration with Telegram as a structural advantage that could drive long-term value creation despite near-term volatility.
Technical indicators suggest the current price level may present reduced risk relative to potential returns. TON's Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of volatility, recently moved into what quantitative analysts consider a favorable zone for accumulation. Dollar-cost averaging, a strategy that spreads purchases across multiple time intervals, could reduce the timing risk associated with entering a position during periods of elevated uncertainty.
Understanding Key Terms
Token unlocks refer to scheduled releases of previously restricted cryptocurrency into circulation, typically following venture capital investments or team allocations. These events increase available supply and often create downward price pressure if demand remains constant.
Staking involves locking cryptocurrency tokens to support network operations in exchange for yield payments. Digital asset treasury companies hold cryptocurrency on their balance sheets as a primary business strategy, similar to how traditional firms might hold cash or securities. The Sharpe ratio, developed by Nobel laureate William Sharpe, calculates risk-adjusted returns by dividing excess returns by volatility.
Closing Thoughts
The tension between programmed selling pressure and institutional buying defines Toncoin's immediate outlook. Retail participants may view the unlock schedule as a reason to avoid the asset, while professional investors appear to be treating the current price as an accumulation zone. The sub-$3 price level could serve as either a temporary bottom or a waypoint in further declines depending on how demand responds to the coming supply increases. Investors should conduct independent research before making allocation decisions.