The cryptocurrency market is experiencing renewed vigor in early 2025, with Toncoin (TON) capturing significant attention. A recent analysis by CryptoQuant's Burak Kesmeci suggests TON is entering the early phases of a potential rally, with its 90-day percent return metric signaling an uptrend historically linked to substantial gains.

Kesmeci's analysis highlights that historical data often correlates reversals in the 90-day percent return metric with impressive performance for TON. In August 2023, TON's price rallied from $1.72, achieving a 65% increase within 70 days. Similarly, February 2024 witnessed a remarkable 258% rise over 43 days after a similar metric turnaround. Most recently, in November 2024, the asset climbed 32% in a mere 11 days.

These historical trends suggest that when the 90-day metric turns positive, significant price hikes may follow. With the current upward momentum starting just a week ago, investor optimism is building around short-term acquisition strategies. Kesmeci predicts, based on past patterns, that TON could see median gains of 65% over the next 43 days.

While the forecast seems promising, external variables, such as the overall sentiment within the cryptocurrency sector, could affect TON's trajectory. Since the beginning of the year, Toncoin has not made any substantial upward movements. Instead, it has faced persistent declines. Over the past two weeks, TON has experienced a double-digit fall of nearly 12%.

Currently trading below $6, TON has seen a 7.5% drop in the past 24 hours alone. Despite this downtrend, the asset's daily trading volume is rising counterintuitively. Over the past week, TON's trading volume increased from $200 million to approximately $344 million, potentially driven by ongoing selling pressure.

As the market watches these developments, Kesmeci's insights suggest a short-term upward trend is still possible. Yet, investors should remain cautious, considering the broader market dynamics.