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Ether Spot ETFs Won't Match Bitcoin's ETF Success - Analysts
Jun 25, 2024
Bernstein predicts lower demand for Ether spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) compared to Bitcoin ETFs. Basically, same people and institutions are going to invest, yet Ethereum attracts less money from investors. Yes, the broker's analysis suggests similar demand sources but on a reduced scale. Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, analysts at Bernstein, highlight a key factor. "ETH should not see as much spot ETH conversion due to the lack of an ETH staking feature in the ETF," they state. The basis trade is expected to attract interest over time. This should contribute to healthy ETF market liquidity. The trade involves simultaneous spot ETF purchase and futures contract sale. U.S. spot ether ETFs are nearing availability. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently approved key regulatory filings from issuers. Bernstein's report emphasizes ether's growing use-case. "ETH as a primary tokenization platform is building up a strong use-case, both for stablecoin payments, as well as tokenization of traditional assets and funds," the authors note. Regulatory improvements are needed for Ether and other digital assets. Bernstein anticipates a favorable narrative shift around the U.S. elections later this year. Probably because Trump has already changed his rhetorics about crypto, and Biden is about to follow. The report cites improving odds of a Republican victory. It also notes Trump's pro-crypto stance as contributing factors. Despite recent market pullbacks, Bernstein maintains that the "structural adoption cycle remains intact." Simply put, nothing can stop us from going to mass crypto adoption, in case you still had any doubt. JPMorgan, a Wall Street giant, shares a similar view. Their recent report suggests spot ether ETFs will likely see much lower demand than bitcoin ETFs. JPMorgan attributes this to bitcoin's first-mover advantage. They believe it could potentially saturate overall demand for crypto exchange-traded funds.
Ethereum ETF Launch Could Trigger 30% Price Decline, Experts Warn
Jun 24, 2024
Mechanism Capital's Andrew Kang predicts a potential drop in Ether's value if spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are approved. Kang suggests Ether could fall to $2,400. That would be a 30% decrease from its current price of $3,410. Kang cites several factors for his bearish outlook. He notes limited institutional interest in Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. He also points out a lack of incentives to convert spot Ether to ETF form. "How much upside would an ETH ETF Provide? I would argue not much," Kang stated on social media. "After the ETF launch my expectation is $2,400 to $3,000." This forecast contrasts with Ether's recent performance. The asset reached over $4,000 in March, coinciding with Bitcoin's new all-time high. Kang anticipates spot Ether ETFs will attract only 15% of the flows seen by spot Bitcoin ETFs. He estimates $840 million in "true" inflows over six months, based on Bitcoin ETF data. "I believe that the expectations of crypto natives are overinflated and disconnected from the true preferences of tradfi allocators," Kang remarked. He suggests the ETF's impact is already priced in. Not all analysts share Kang's pessimism. Patrick Scott expects similar movement to Bitcoin ETFs, while Van Eck projects Ether could reach $22,000 by 2030. Kang argues Ethereum's pitch as a decentralized financial settlement layer or Web3 app store is a "hard sell" given current data. He compares Ethereum to an overpriced tech stock, citing its high price-to-sales ratio and negative earnings after inflation. The removal of staking from proposed spot Ether ETFs may deter investors, Kang adds. He acknowledges institutional interest in real-world asset tokenization on Ethereum but questions its impact on Ether's price. Kang predicts the ETH/BTC price ratio could fall from 0.054 to 0.035 over the next year. However, he suggests a Bitcoin rally to $100,000 could push Ether to a new all-time high.
Solana ETF Breaks New Ground: Canadian Fund Manager's Bold Move
Jun 21, 2024
A new proposal for a Solana ETF has surfaced in Canada. This development comes after the establishment of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. The initial approval of spot Ethereum ETFs also occurred last month. Canadian investment fund manager 3iQ filed to offer The Solana Fund (QSOL). The company claims it would be North America's first Solana exchange-traded product if approved. Solana (SOL) is the fifth-largest cryptocurrency. It has a market cap of $61 billion. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and Binance Coin precede it in size. 3iQ plans to list the fund on the Toronto Stock Exchange. This listing relates to an initial public offering. "The Solana Fund offers easy exposure to SOL without technical complexity," stated 3iQ. They added, "As part of our investment strategy, the Solana Fund will stake SOL to earn rewards." 3iQ already offers Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Their move to support Solana fuels speculation about future cryptocurrency approvals in the U.S. British bank Standard Chartered made predictions about future SEC approvals. They believe Solana and XRP will be next to receive ETF approval. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of crypto research, commented on the similarity to Ethereum. He said, "In several cases the core technology is so similar to ETH it would be difficult for the SEC to claim they were securities given the ETH position." Tether and WAX co-founder William Quigley shared his thoughts with Decrypt. He expects fund managers to move to the "next hot new thing" with Solana as a likely option. Quigley elaborated on the trend. "Every time Wall Street packages a new product to sell to consumers, if that product is successful, you can guarantee there will be copycats," he said. He pointed to the massive investments in Bitcoin spot ETFs. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted Canada's early adoption of crypto ETFs. He also highlighted the existing global market for Solana funds. Seyffart tweeted about the scale of existing Solana ETPs. "You guys would be stunned to realize we already have over $1 billion in Solana ETPs elsewhere in the world," he wrote. He included a list of funds from providers like 21Shares, VanEck, and WisdomTree.
Bitcoin and Ethereum in One ETF? Hashdex is on the Verge of Making It Possible
Jun 19, 2024
Hashdex has filed for a combined spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF in the United States. If approved, this might be a revolutionary tool to promote cryptocurrencies into financial world. Building on recent SEC crypto fund approvals, crypto asset management firm Hashdex wants to make a major step nobody has foreseen. We now have Bitcoin ETFs, we will soon have Ethereum ETFs. But joint ETFs that directly hold both of the leading cryptocurrencies will be a major shift. According to the filing submitted to Nasdaq, the ETF will include cash holdings, with Coinbase Custody and BitGo designated as custodians. Interestingly, the fund would primarily hold Bitcoin (70.54%) and Ethereum (29.46%), mirroring the relative weightings of these two dominant cryptocurrencies on the market. It is also noted that the index could potentially incorporate additional crypto assets in the future. To be included, the asset would need to meet specific criteria, for instance, to be listed on a U.S.-regulated platform or serving as the underlying asset for a derivative instrument on such a venue. As we all remember, Bitcoin ETFs were approved by SEC in January. That resulted in a significantly fast surge, followed by halving, which also helped BTC gain bullish momentum. As for Ethereum ETFs, SEC's Gary Gensler said the that he anticipates that they will begin trading this summer. Hashdex's previous efforts to transition its Bitcoin futures ETF to one holding physical BTC directly went south. The company was unable to secure approval before its competitors' launch in January.
Tether Co-Founder Slams ETFs: 'I Was Happy with Crypto Without Wall Street'
Jun 17, 2024
Tether Co-Founder predicts next ETFs after Bitcoin and Ethereum. He claims that Wall Street is too greedy to stop. And that is not so good for crypto. William Quigley told Decrypt this week that he doesn't expect crypto ETF momentum to slow after the approvals of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds. According to Quigley, Wall Street's “greed” will bring more and more such products. He named Solana and Cardano as possible next ETFs installations. They will be driven by Wall Street's relentless pursuit of profit. “Every time Wall Street packages a new product to sell to consumers, if that product is successful, you can guarantee there will be copycats. There would be no ETFs if the Bitcoin ETF had failed,” Quigley said. His comments were overall less than flattering for Wall Street guys. They just love 'the next hot thing' because it is easy to sell it to consumers. Once there is a big pullback the trend will lose momentum, Quigley thinks. ETFs are considered to be a true milestone in the history of crypto. Basically, they allow investors to gain profits from Bitcoin without actually holding any crypto. That is as safe and convenient as buying shares of NYSE companies. With recent SEC statements, their is very little doubt that Ethereum ETFs will be approved this summer. Now rumours spread that Solana ETFs are on horizons. So Quigley might be right about the overall trend. Why is Quigley so angry with ETFs? Well, obviously Tether co-founder isn't excited with crypto mainstream adoption because of the increasing involvement of traditional finance in the decentralized space. One of the questions he asks is what is actually going to happen when in time of downturn - and those are inevitable on the crypto market - Wall Street investors will simply pull out. That would be a risk factor that is new for crypto world, and absolutely unpredictable. "I was happy with crypto without Wall Street,” Quigley summarized.

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