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Bitcoin HODLers Selling: Cause for Concern or Natural Market Cycle?
Jul 01, 2024
Recent on-chain data reveals a continued decline in Bitcoin's long-term holder supply. This trend is a bit scary, at least for those who still bet high on the next BTC rally in the near future. Long-term holders (LTHs) are investors who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days. They are typically considered the market's most resilient participants, the ones you can count on mostly when it comes to seeking bullish price support levels. Short-term holders (STHs), in contrast, represent more volatile investors. The LTH supply has been decreasing since January's spot ETF approvals. Data shows the sharpest decline occurred during Bitcoin's rally to new price highs. This suggests even long-term investors were tempted to take profits. Simply put, getting the profit out in fiat was so tempting, thet it clearly over-weighted the potential even bigger incomes in the future. The supply continues to decrease, albeit more slowly, despite recent bearish price action. This ongoing trend is noteworthy. Interestingly, the decline persists beyond the 155-day mark since the spot ETF launch. New buying appears outweighed by selling from established holders. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr suggests this could indicate market-wide pessimism. However, historical data provides context. Similar LTH supply reductions occurred mid-cycle in previous bull runs. This pattern doesn't necessarily signal long-term bearish sentiment. "The timing of the selloff would indicate that these profits had ballooned so much during the rally that even these diamond hands gave into the allure of profit-taking," Adler noted.

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21 Rules of HODLing Bitcoin According to Michael Saylor, the Legendary Crypto Bull
Bitcoin
Jun 19, 2024
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy and a prominent crypto bull, just outlined 21 rules of HODling Bitcoin. Some of them might seem quite trivial. Yet, some of them are absolutely brilliant. Check them out. Saylor was a gem of the recent BTC Prague conference. His keynote was captivating. And some of the things he said might have a huge impact on the market. At least in short terms. What's worth at least Saylor's fantastic prediction of Bitcoin reaching the $8 million per coin mark Or not so fantastic? But another part of his speech might have a bigger impact in long terms. Saylor presented his vision of “21 Rules of HODLing Bitcoin.” Biggest bull on the market, Saylor outlined strategies for managing and sustaining investments in a highly volatile environment. He articulated a philosophical and strategic framework for understanding and investing in BTC. According to Saylor, Bitcoin is so much more than just money. Saylor thinks of Bitcoin as of a financial asset but as a revolutionary tool capable of reshaping global financial paradigms. These rules were consisely summarized by Luke Broyles and published via X. Here they are with comments from market observers. 21 rules of HODLing Bitcoin, according to Michael Saylor #1 “Those who understand buy Bitcoin, those who don’t criticize Bitcoin,” Saylor declared, setting the tone for his discourse on the dichotomy between skeptics and proponents. He argued that recognizing BTC’s potential is akin to seeing a paradigm shift before it fully unfolds. #2 "Everyone is against #Bitcoin  before they are for it." Reflecting on his initial dismissive stance in 2013, Saylor recounted how his view evolved as BTC’s resilience and potential became increasingly evident. His personal journey from skepticism to advocacy underscores a common path among investors who often transition from doubt to strong support. #3 "You will never be done learning about Bitcoin,” Saylor stated, emphasizing the complexity and ever-evolving nature of the cryptocurrency. He suggested that BTC’s intersection with global economics, technology, and regulatory frameworks makes it a perpetually relevant subject for study. #4 Drawing historical parallels, Saylor highlighted moments of significant upheaval, such as WWII and the rise of communism in Europe, to illustrate BTC’s value as a non-geopolitical, stable store of wealth. “Buy BTC because entropy is guaranteed,” he asserted, suggesting that Bitcoin provides a safe haven in times of disorder. #5 According to Saylor, BTC offers an equitable opportunity in contrast to traditional financial systems, which he views as inherently skewed against the average person. “Bitcoin is the only game in the casino that we can all win,” he noted, framing it as a uniquely fair and transparent financial instrument. #6 He advised taking a proactive approach to investment, saying, “Bitcoin won’t protect you if you don’t wear the armor.” This analogy was used to encourage substantial, thoughtful investment in Bitcoin to safeguard one’s financial future. #7 Saylor passionately argued that Bitcoin enables a form of ownership unmediated by any third party: “Your cryptographic keys in your head are your wealth.” This, he claimed, is a radical shift from the way assets have been controlled and protected throughout history. #8 Reflecting on the volatility and growth trajectory, Saylor shared a personal anecdote on how he dismissed BTC at $892 to only deserve buying it at $9,500 for the first time. “Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve,” he remarked. “He then said when Bitcoin is $950,000 people will try to wait for it to crash to $700,000. Then BTC would go to $8,000,000,” Broyles reiterated. #9 Saylor advised only investing money that one can afford to lose, highlighting the conservative approach to adopting new financial technologies. This rule underscores the balance between visionary investment and financial prudence. #10 Describing fiat currencies and traditional economic indicators as “the matrix,” Saylor championed Bitcoin as a means to transcend conventional financial systems. He sees it as not just a technology but a liberation from the restrictive narratives imposed by traditional economic structures. #11 Saylor shared insights from personal experiences where Bitcoin’s impact on his company’s financial stability was profound. “Without BTC, MSTR would have failed,” he disclosed, illustrating the direct impact of strategic Bitcoin investments on corporate finance. #12 Saylor projected a conservative 24% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next decade, setting a potential valuation benchmark and underscoring his confidence in BTC’s sustained growth. Notably, this would price BTC at $600,000 by 2034. #13 Saylor described the current economic system as flawed, seeing BTC as a cure for these inherent issues. “The cure to economic illness is the orange pill,” he said, promoting it as a revolutionary technology that offers a radical update to outdated economic practices. #14 Rather than attacking the fading fiat system, Saylor urged for a positive approach: “Be for Bitcoin, not against fiat,” emphasizing the importance of building a new system rather than destructively opposing the old. #15 According to Saylor, “Bitcoin is for everybody.” He projected that digital capital like BTC could eventually represent half of all value in a future, yet-to-be-imagined world economy, which would significantly drive up its price. #16 “Learn to think in Bitcoin,” Saylor advised, encouraging a shift in perspective to view future technologies and paradigms through the lens of BTC, rather than trying to fit new innovations into old frameworks. #17 “You don’t change Bitcoin, it changes you.” Saylor highlighted how BTC challenges individuals to rethink their approach to money, value, and investment on a global scale. #18 “Laser eyes protect you from endless lies.” Saylor underscored the importance of maintaining focus on the long-term potential, especially when its market price reaches landmarks like $100,000 or $1 million. He envisioned a future where BTC’s market cap could escalate to between $100 trillion and $500 trillion. #19 He cautioned, “Respect Bitcoin or it will make a clown of you.” This rule was a warning against underestimating BTC’s impact and the foolishness of mocking an emerging financial technology that has substantial backing and proven resilience. #20 “You do not sell your Bitcoin.” Saylor likened selling BTC to self-sabotage, suggesting that it is a foundational asset for long-term financial security, much like a life raft in an ocean or a fire in winter. #21 Finally, Saylor concluded with, “Spread Bitcoin with love.” He stressed the importance of patience and kindness in promoting BTC, especially towards those who are initially critical or dismissive of its benefits.

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