A field of 10 private giants, from OpenAI to Anthropic, is lining up behind SpaceX, whose $75 billion offering reset expectations for how large a market debut can be.
Key Points:
- SpaceX priced its Jun. 12 debut at $135 and raised more than $75 billion, the largest offering on record.
- Analysts see OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Stripe, Canva, Revolut, Kraken, Discord, Cohere and Lime as the leading candidates.
- Research shows listings worth $10 billion or more average 26.5% first-week gains but only 3.5% after one year.
SpaceX Blueprint Fuels Mega-Cap IPO Wave
Kathmere Capital Management chief investment officer Nick Ryder said this week that market conditions will decide whether the next mega-cap debuts follow the SpaceX playbook.
"It would not surprise me at all to see a similar dynamic play out," he added, pointing to offerings expected in the months ahead. The rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence company joins the Nasdaq-100 after the market close on Jul. 6, less than a month after its debut and one of the fastest index additions on record.
Arne Noack, who oversees FTSE Russell equity indexes in the Americas, countered that index providers themselves supply the real template, since any company meeting fast-track thresholds can win rapid inclusion. SpaceX raised more than $75 billion after pricing shares at $135 on Jun. 11, the largest haul in initial public offering history.
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Top 10 IPO Candidates: OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe
Research strategists see the strongest cases in OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Stripe, Canva and Revolut, with several others close behind. Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 in June after raising $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, and reportedly targets a listing as soon as October. OpenAI, valued at $852 billion in its March funding round, wants a $1 trillion debut but is weighing a delay into 2027.
Databricks strengthens the case with a $134 billion private valuation, more than $5 billion in annualized revenue and positive free cash flow. Toronto-based Cohere, which recently crossed $240 million in annual recurring revenue, rounds out an artificial intelligence contingent that dominates the conversation.
The fintech bench looks deep as well. Stripe has resisted a listing for years despite persistent speculation, while Revolut keeps appearing on institutional watchlists tied to the payments boom. Crypto exchange Kraken filed for its own offering before reportedly pausing the plan in March.
Consumer names complete the field of 10. Canva reached a $42 billion valuation in an employee share sale, Discord submitted a confidential filing early this year, and scooter operator Lime registered in May under the ticker LIME.
SpaceX Stock Swings Temper IPO Optimism
History suggests caution.
Research cited this week found that companies worth $10 billion or more averaged 26.5% gains in their first week of trading across 26 years, then just 3.5% after a full year. SpaceX has already lived that arc, pricing at $135, opening at $150, touching $225.65 on Jun. 16 and sliding back near $150 within two weeks, even as its market value holds near $2.1 trillion.
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