Bitcoin (BTC) has left its bear market behind, according to a recent BIT Research report that sketches a possible cycle peak between $185,000 and $215,000.
Key Points:
- BIT Research says Bitcoin found its cycle low after holding above $62,900.
- A cost-basis model points to a possible top of $185,000 to $215,000, likely in 2028 or 2029.
- A stronger dollar and overbought conditions could force a pause first, the firm warned.
BIT Research Calls Bitcoin Bottom
BIT Research argued that Bitcoin confirmed its cycle low once it held above $62,900, then broke above its 21-week moving average at $69,272 and reclaimed $70,000.
bitcoinThe price has since cleared its March 2024 high of $73,084. On Wednesday, Bitcoin traded just above $83,000, down more than 4% over the past week.
The firm pointed to the True Market Mean, its estimate of the average price all holders paid, at about $76,897. With Bitcoin trading above that mark, the whole market is back in profit, which BIT said eases the selling pressure that builds when traders sit on losses.
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BIT Maps Bitcoin Path To $215,000
The upper target rests on history. In past cycles, Bitcoin peaked only after it traded at least 85% above the True Market Mean, a level that now sits near $142,260. Last cycle, Bitcoin first hit that premium near $73,000 in March 2024 and went on to peak at $126,000, about 1.7 times higher.
BIT noted that the multiple has shrunk from cycle to cycle, and a drop to 1.3 to 1.5 times from a base of roughly $142,000 would put the top between $185,000 and $215,000.
Bitcoin Rally Faces Dollar Test
Timing is less certain. The last cycle needed about 19 months to move from the 85% signal to its peak, so BIT sees a top near $200,000 as more likely in 2028 or 2029. Its debt model, based on U.S. federal debt of about $40.1 trillion, puts fair value near $105,000.
Near term, the firm flagged a stronger dollar and overbought conditions as reasons for a possible consolidation. On Tuesday, Bitcoin rose about 1% to just above $84,200, and FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said a firmer dollar and shaky stocks were adding to investor unease.
The quarter's rally came in a burst rather than a steady climb. Bitcoin spent most of July and August between about $62,000 and $66,000, then surged in the week to Aug. 21 before swinging between about $75,000 and $88,000 in September. Even with a gain of about 42% since Jul. 1, its best third quarter since 2017, it still sits roughly 26% below its level a year ago.
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