Last week's analysis explained that Bitcoin (BTC) was still moving inside the $76,000-$82,000 range, continuing the sideways structure seen since August. That view remains unchanged: Bitcoin is expected to break the $82,000-$83,000 area in the next few days, but a real breakout still requires a solid weekly close above that zone.
Why could that mark the beginning of a new bullish cycle?
One of the signals being watched is the 50-week moving average, currently around the $77,500-$78,000 area. Bitcoin has managed to reclaim this moving average and is trading back above it. Historically, reclaiming the 50-week moving average after a bearish phase has accompanied the beginning of a new bullish expansion on several occasions, although no single indicator should be treated as confirmation on its own.
The current structure also shares similarities with 2022-2023, when Bitcoin needed several attempts around this moving average before eventually reclaiming it and continuing higher. That is why the key confirmation remains the $82,000-$83,000 region. A clear weekly close above that area would shift the market view toward the beginning of a new bullish phase.
Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar weekly chart.
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ETF Flows Remain Slightly Positive for the Market
Bitcoin ETF flows are another factor under close watch. The September data is mixed, with both strong inflow and outflow sessions, but the balance across the period shown remains positive overall.
There have been notable selling days, including approximately $450.4 million of net outflows on 15 September and $295.9 million on 16 September. However, these have been offset by strong buying sessions such as roughly $730.8 million on 3 September and $433.0 million on 18 September. Overall, this leaves ETF flows somewhat positive for the market rather than showing sustained institutional selling pressure.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows (US$m), September 2026.
Altcoins Positioned for a Possible Bullish Phase
Looking ahead to a possible bullish phase, the author has also started positioning in several altcoins. The assets currently being watched and held include Zama (ZAMA), Zcash (ZEC), Near (NEAR), Ondo (ONDO) and Solana (SOL).
In ZAMA, spot exposure was already built around $0.05, an entry the author previously shared with their community. Since that call, the spot position has risen by more than 100%. A futures position using 3x leverage was also opened and, at the time of writing, is showing more than 250% profit.
ZEC, NEAR, ONDO and SOL have also been added to the portfolio and are positioned for the next bullish move expected in the market.
For now, the focus returns to Bitcoin. Reclaiming the 50-week moving average has been an important first step; breaking and closing above $82,000-$83,000 would be the real confirmation of the beginning of a new bullish phase.
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