Bitcoin's (BTC) key valuation metric — the MVRV ratio, which measures market value against realized value — has dropped to levels not seen since the FTX collapse in late 2022, according to Santiment, even as on-chain data firm Glassnode points to early signs of price stabilization supported by returning ETF inflows and recovering spot demand.
What Happened: MVRV Hits FTX-Era Low
Santiment reported Thursday that the 365-day MVRV reading has turned severely negative, matching the oversold conditions recorded after FTX imploded. Following that 2022 bottom, BTC rallied 67% within three months.
"This is typical when average returns are significantly below the average value for what is historically expected," Santiment stated.
The firm noted that macroeconomic pressures and "polarized opinions about Strategy's aggressive accumulation" are reshaping the market landscape, concluding that a major move may be ahead.
Separately, Glassnode noted in its weekly on-chain report that BTC has been stuck between $63,000 and $72,500 for over a month, with the Realized Price at $54,400 acting as support and the True Market Mean at $78,400 serving as resistance.
Stabilizing signals include positive inflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, spot buyers absorbing selling pressure, perpetual futures funding turning negative and options implied volatility easing.
Total crypto market capitalization held flat at $2.45 trillion Thursday. Ether (ETH) hovered just above $2,000 while altcoins remained dormant, and 10x Research reported that sentiment stays weak with trading volumes near their lows.
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Why It Matters: Historically Bullish Signal
The last time the MVRV ratio reached these levels, it preceded a significant rally — a 67% gain over three months. A repeat of that move from current prices would theoretically push BTC toward $116,000, though analysts consider that unlikely given the current bearish conditions and expect months of consolidation before any major price shift.
"When this powerful indicator reveals a divergence we haven't seen in over 3 years, pay attention," Santiment warned. Glassnode echoed cautious optimism, stating that the market "appears to be shifting from forced deleveraging toward early stabilisation, with scope for recovery if spot demand continues to build."
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