Steve Eisman, the trader who shorted subprime mortgages before the 2008 crash, wants no part of SpaceX's $1.77 trillion IPO expected to price this week.
Key Points:
- Eisman said he is steering clear of the SpaceX offering, comparing its prospectus to science fiction.
- He flagged a sharp jump in capital spending tied to the AI push, from 42% of revenue to 215%.
- The listing could raise about $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest IPO on record.
Eisman Pans SpaceX Prospectus
Eisman, who hosts the "Real Eisman Playbook" podcast and once ran money at Neuberger Berman, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday that he plans to sit out the listing. He said the company's own prospectus shaped his skepticism, singling out a stated goal of mining asteroids that struck him as more amusing than credible.
The S-1, in his telling, reads more like a science fiction novel than a sober business plan, with promises that run well ahead of the company's near-term reality.
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Eisman's Doubts Over The AI Pivot
Eisman's deeper worry is the pivot into artificial intelligence, which has turned the rocket maker into a far more capital-hungry company than its launch business alone would suggest. Capital spending climbed from 42% of revenue in fiscal 2023 to 215% in the most recent first quarter, driven by the buildout of AI computing.
He cast the surge as part of a wider shift across technology, citing Google's recent $80 billion raise as a sign of how cash-hungry the sector has become.
He dismissed Grok, SpaceX's in-house AI product, as well short of world class. Output across the field is commoditized, he argued, with users hopping between models and no durable moats left to defend.
The S-1 pegs the total addressable market at $28.5 trillion, with about 85% tied to AI rather than rockets or Starlink.
Even so, Eisman made clear he will not bet against the stock. He would rather stay on the sidelines than chase a trade he does not believe in, whatever the hype around the offering.
SpaceX IPO Sizes Up A Record
SpaceX plans to sell roughly 555.6 million shares at $135 apiece, a deal that could raise about $75 billion and value the company near $1.77 trillion. Final pricing is due after the close on Jun. 11, and the stock would trade on the Nasdaq under SPCX, topping Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing as the largest on record.
Elon Musk's firm reported $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, up 33%, yet still booked a $4.9 billion net loss as it funded rockets, satellites and data centers. Eisman has walked this path before, having shorted Tesla for years before abandoning the position in 2020. He later framed that retreat as discipline rather than defeat, telling viewers there is "no glory in losing money."
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